[Tsundoku]

Maybe the Russians should just send prayer-drones instead? Or even prayer-missiles? Would they be cheaper and more precise ... ?

[Werthead]

Germany has sent an additional Patriot battery to Ukraine, apparently already on its way. One additional Patriot battery has been secured in principle and the details are now being worked out.

Ukraine has apparently launched a series of attacks on Berdychi, driving back Russian forces holding several strongpoints. Not a major victory but a constant way of keeping Russian forces off-balance and not allow them to dig in.

A Russian Storm Z unit has published an angry complaint that recent Russian personnel and equipment losses are unsustainable and poisonous to morale. However, Russia has had some localised successes based on meatgrinder attacks so these are being intensified. They have attributed these successes to Ukrainian firepower deficiencies, so when those new shells and weapons arrive, Russian losses could escalate horrendously. Recent casualties have been back in the 800-900 per day range even with Ukrainian weaknesses in weapons supply.

A Chinese political analyst working at Beijing University has been allowed to post an article claiming that Russia will lose the war in a major way and that conflict has strained Russo-Sino relations. Interesting why that was permitted.

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 13 April 2024 - 09:05 PM, said:

A Chinese political analyst working at Beijing University has been allowed to post an article claiming that Russia will lose the war in a major way and that conflict has strained Russo-Sino relations. Interesting why that was permitted.

Interesting.

"Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today."

I'm not so sure. The difference being the USA is reluctant to use nukes. Putin may have a certain reluctance, but it is far less than the USA's, especially if he feels he has nothing to lose and will go to heaven anyway. Beware of backing the crazies into corners.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 13 April 2024 - 09:17 PM

[Garak]

In other places I keep seeing attention being given to the West dragging it's feet with heavy suggestions Ukraine will lose and that Russia can produce enough equipment (and they don't care about losses taken) to win the war. Something I really don't want to happen.

[Werthead]

Tsundoku, on 13 April 2024 - 09:17 PM, said:

Interesting.

"Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today."

I'm not so sure. The difference being the USA is reluctant to use nukes. Putin may have a certain reluctance, but it is far less than the USA's, especially if he feels he has nothing to lose and will go to heaven anyway. Beware of backing the crazies into corners.

Putin was recently hiding behind desks the size of a tennis court to avoid catching an illness he is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by. This does not speak of someone who is rushing towards death. It's true that Putin's age is making him think differently in terms of legacy - he is now 3 years older than the average lifespan for a Russian male - but it's also true that he knows he might well live for another two decades or more (Mikhail Gorbachev died just two years ago at the age of 91) and is in no rush to kill himself.

It's also the case that Putin's support network is much creakier than it once was. If he gives the order to use a nuclear weapon, that would be a key moment for the regime to support him or shoot him in the head and discuss a nice peace deal which allows them to get back to their luxury holiday homes on the Italian coast. Putin also has to consider his nuclear forces might be in as much of a mess as his regular forces, with no guarantee of Russia getting off a major strike before it was obliterated by a second strike.

There is also the utility of nuclear weapons on the battlefield: annihilating Kyiv probably doesn't end the war, and nuking bits of the battlefield, leaving irradiated patches its troops cannot advance through (and given their current mood might well revolt if ordered to do so) is actually a much bigger hindrance than it would be helpful.

China has also made it clear that nuclear weapon usage would be a very, very big problem for them: China is blatantly preparing an attack on Taiwan with a high probability of that provoking a direct military confrontation with the United States, and if that happens China wants to keep nuclear weapons off the table, which is much easier if the 79-year nuclear taboo has not just been broken by another country.

[Werthead]

Dzhankoi Airbase in Crimea has had its biggest-ever Ukrainian strike. Ukraine damaged the runaway (something they've avoided so far as it's very, very hard to put runways out of commission for any length of time, as Iran has found out to its cost) and also completely destroyed an S-400 complex, including multiple launchers and radar systems.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has shot down a Tu-22M3 bomber after it launched cruise missiles from what was supposed to be safely outside AA range. Ukraine reportedly used an upgraded anti-air missile, possible the same one used in recent shootdowns of Su-34s and Su-35s. Some reports this is a modified Patriot, others that's actually a hugely upgraded S-200 (!).
Ukraine has scored a big scalp, the commander of the 59th Guards Signal Brigade was killed in a Storm Shadow strike on his unit's headquarters in Luhansk.

One Russian analyst, Shlepchenko, has said that he does not expect a Russian major breakthrough, and at best a very slow pushback of Ukrainian forces modest distances in some areas. His analysis chimes with a few opinions I've seen recently that both Ukraine and Russia are experiencing deficiencies in recruitment, ammunition, war fatigue, morale issues and equipment issues almost simultaneously with one another, and western political/journalistic analyses have not accounted for Russian problems in these areas whilst Ukraine is also suffering from them. He estimates that the war will continue into 2027 at this rate.

Russian partisan units continuing to shell Belgorod, which surprised me, I thought that'd withdrawn. Heavier rockets were used to hit Russian military and police sites in and another the city, and Russia was force to use some pretty big AA rockets to shoot them down, which is quite expensive.

A Buryatian soldier has returned home to to find that robbers broke into his house and stole everything, even unbolting and scarpering off with the toilet. His income from fighting in Ukraine for two years is basically going to go entirely on replacing his property.

[Werthead]

America doing the right thing. At long, long, long last.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 19 April 2024 - 04:45 PM, said:

Ukraine has shot down a Tu-22M3 bomber after it launched cruise missiles from what was supposed to be safely outside AA range. Ukraine reportedly used an upgraded anti-air missile, possible the same one used in recent shootdowns of Su-34s and Su-35s. Some reports this is a modified Patriot, others that's actually a hugely upgraded S-200 (!).
Ukraine has scored a big scalp, the commander of the 59th Guards Signal Brigade was killed in a Storm Shadow strike on his unit's headquarters in Luhansk.

One Russian analyst, Shlepchenko, has said that he does not expect a Russian major breakthrough, and at best a very slow pushback of Ukrainian forces modest distances in some areas. His analysis chimes with a few opinions I've seen recently that both Ukraine and Russia are experiencing deficiencies in recruitment, ammunition, war fatigue, morale issues and equipment issues almost simultaneously with one another, and western political/journalistic analyses have not accounted for Russian problems in these areas whilst Ukraine is also suffering from them. He estimates that the war will continue into 2027 at this rate.

Russian partisan units continuing to shell Belgorod, which surprised me, I thought that'd withdrawn. Heavier rockets were used to hit Russian military and police sites in and another the city, and Russia was force to use some pretty big AA rockets to shoot them down, which is quite expensive.

A Buryatian soldier has returned home to to find that robbers broke into his house and stole everything, even unbolting and scarpering off with the toilet. His income from fighting in Ukraine for two years is basically going to go entirely on replacing his property.

Zelensky signed the amendments to mobilization bill, which is to take effect by mid-May.


If/When Congress greenlight 60 billion assistance to UA tomorrow, that should (in theory) relieve some of the mobilization hesitations and reservations from draftees that they'll be under-equipped when facing the challenges of the trenches and possible renewed assault

[Werthead]

$13 billion in aid is apparently already earmarked and a lot of it already packed and ready to fly to Ukraine. It will be there in days.

Equipment shortages on the Robotyne front had gotten so bad for the Russians that their last attack involved troops advancing over a fairly extensive amount of flat ground towards fortified positions, accompanied by a lone IFV, which was taken out by an ATGM in short order. This was after their previous "armoured assaults" involved troops riding unarmoured trucks and jumping clear when they were destroyed to advance without cover.

Both the Ukrainian defenders and Russian attackers seem utterly disbelieving that they were doing this. Russian soldiers are pushing for a halt to offensive operations on this front and just holding the line, before they run so low on men and material that the Ukrainians could just roll back over their positions (well, mines notwithstanding).

Ukraine disabled another S-300/S-400 complex in Donbas by eliminating its radars with a HIMARS strike. This appears to be a shorter-range setup than the one they had in Crimea, but it's unclear why it was located relatively close to the front lines.

Blinken is visiting China next week. China has started to show increasing signs of scepticism over the course of the war in recent weeks, although still very moderate. Blinken might use this as an opportunity to encourage China to benefit from (very mildly) thawing US-Chinese relations to the benefit of the stalling Chinese economy and to discourage further support for Russia. Sceptical that will do much, but I guess never hurts to try.

Medvedev taking the news well:

Quote

"It was the voting of joyful US bastards: a) to continue the civil war of the separated people of our once united country; to increase the number of victims of this war as much as possible.

We will, of course, win, despite the $61 billion of bloody dollars that will mostly go down the throat of their insatiable military production complex. Power and Truth are with us.

But considering the rusophobic decision that took place I can't help but wish the USA with all sincerity to dive into a new civil war themselves as quickly as possible. Which, I hope, will be very different from the war between North and South in the 19th century and will be waged using aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile evil empire of the 21st century - the United States of America."

Some reports that Moscow's vodka stores are on Red Alert for shortages.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

It is a loan-lease package, which means Ukraine would receive military aid in the form of a commercial credit and leased military equipment to be returned after use. The materiel side is for political cover – as in the Second World War when the US supplied arms to its allies on the basis of the 1941 Lend-Lease Act. But it makes a difference if the financial-aid part comes in the form of a loan or a grant.

If and when Ukraine joins the EU, its debts will effectively become EU debt[...] What Trump and Johnson are doing is pushing the burden of funding to Europe.

Spoiler

[...] there will still be legislative and logistical delays before it is implemented. [...]

[...] Russia had higher growth rates in 2023 than any large Western economy; in terms of purchasing power, it is approximately the size of Germany. Now that there is resistance the West seems to have lost interest, and its attention is now mostly on the Middle East.

[...] The Germans are providing more aid and weapons than anyone else in Europe – but strategically, they are a disaster. The only clarity we get from Berlin is on its red lines. [...] The red-line approach gave us the eurozone debt crisis in the last decade. Now the German government is applying it to foreign policy.

Ukraine is Europe's problem now - New Statesman

Still, it will keep Ukraine going in the short-term... and that's what matters most.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 April 2024 - 12:45 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has decided if they're not going to get tons of Patriot missile launchers, they're going to build their own! With blackjack and hookers! Okay, maybe not. But Ukraine and the US are talking about localising Patriot production in Ukraine and how fast that can be done. As with prior weapons systems, the US is apparently mind-boggled by how fast Ukraine has adapted to using Patriot and how innovative they have been in deploying it in a semi-offensive capacity. Meanwhile, Ukraine has secured delivery of five new Patriot batteries in the near future.

The preplanning for the new aid bill was apparently more thorough than first supposed. The US pre-positioned substantial stocks of new equipment in Poland and Germany weeks ago for rapid delivery to the front. Reportedly some of it is already in-theatre. Also confirmation that long-range ATACMS are part of the new supplies, specifically the upper block tiers easily capable of hitting the Crimean Bridge from Ukrainian territory.

There seems to be a growing drone imbalance on the front. Russian sources have identified Ukrainian drones working by sectors for different capabilities, and Ukraine has gotten skilful at using low-cost drones for missions that artillery would have carried out even a few months ago. This has allowed Ukraine to redeploy limited artillery ammunition against higher value targets. Russian milbloggers cite Ukrainian hunter-killer drones targeting short-range artillery tube systems as a particular, recent major threat, resorting in some mortar teams refusing to deploy near the front, or trying to scoot and shoot after a single shot, which for mortars is not exactly ideal.

The imminent onset of many more drones, the eradication of Ukraine's artillery ammunition shortage and the arrival of F-16s to further reduce their air cover is not filling Russian troops on the front with confidence. There seems to be something of a race to achieve further gains in the short term, probably with the main effort at Chasiv Yar.

There is a diplomatic effort unfolding. Zelenskyy's peace plan will be presented to a conference of ~80 countries in Switzerland in mid-June, including Russian-friendly (ish) nations like South Africa and India (and probably Brazil). He has invited the Chinese to participate and they have made encouraging noises. Xi seems to be playing both ends against the middle, having recently met Lavrov and Scholz, will meet Blinken this week in China and Macron in Paris in early May. Putin will visit China in mid-May as the first major visit of his new term (which Russia is selling as a big honour to China, China probably sees it more as desperation). Xi I think is keeping his options open, but might be willing to consider a scenario in which China brokers a diplomatic end to the war (akin to its recent Iran-Saudi initiative, superficial as that was). I would not expend vast amounts of optimism over this scenario.

Speculation over Kadyrov's health mounting after his hospitalisation last year. He's filmed himself lifting stones - with difficulty - and jogging - resulting in a red face and trying not to keel over. Kadyrov was allegedly diagnosed with pancreas necrosis in 2019, which has a reasonable 70% survival rate with surgery and medical intervention. It's unclear to what extend Kadyrov complied with those instructions, but he's not looking to happy at the moment.

[Mentalist]

While people are talking up the drone kills, the lack of arty ammo and even landmines is tarting to show. The orcs managed to find unmined approaches to Ocheretyne NW of Avdiyivka,and by deploying significant forces there they've created a salient in the Ukranian devfensive line. Right now there's a major effort to stabilize the line, but with the localized airpower advantage (the frontline troops are short on even stingers, and the 47th Mech doesn't have a ton of ammo for their Bradleys), things are far from ideal.

The aid from that initial 1 billion US package needs to be close to the frontlines yesterday.

[Werthead]

Apparently Ukraine has withdrawn some of its MBTs, including all of the Abrams, from the eastern front, where they were being targeted relentlessly by drones and were easily hit due to their low speed. Ukraine has switched to counter-drone operations and using much nimbler Bradleys instead.

Interesting signs of a Ukraine attack on Novoprokrovka, NE of Robotyne. They briefly took it in the autumn offensive last year but had to withdraw. Ukraine's air force - its main jets, not drones - have been pounding Russian positions in the town, suggesting Russian air defences in the wider area have been fully suppressed. Uncoincidentally, Ukrainian drones have been going bonkers hitting Buks and Pantsirs all along the front and Russia has pulled its S-300 and S-400 systems well back from the front, giving Ukraine's MiGs and Flankers (and any incoming aircraft cough) more room to operate.

Spain and Greece have turned down requests for Patriots, Greece citing a threat from Türkiye (which other NATO countries have raised eyebrows over) and Spain, rather less convincingly, citing a threat from Morocco (which Morocco seems confused by).

An angry claim on Russian Telegram that the mobilised regiments of the Russian military from 2023 alone suffered over 35% casualties, maybe closer to 40%.

Ukraine has hit the Kushchyovskaya airbase in Krasnodar Krai with drones, destroying a stockpile of glide bombs. Several aircraft have been damaged, although it does not appear catastrophically.

The nearby Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery was also hit, causing quite a big fire.

Ukrainian Air Force attacks along the Robotyne front seem to be continuing. Russian AA seems to be wholly MIA on this sector. Lots more footage of drones and artillery strikes obliterating Russian AA platforms all over the shop, which seems to be giving existing Ukrainian aircraft room to operate, let alone the F-16s when they arrive (which now needs to be yesterday).

The US rushing supplies of Patriot ammunition and ATACMs to Ukraine. They pre-positioned some supplies in Germany and Poland weeks ago and a lot of material is already in Ukraine. Far more is needed, and coming.

[Werthead]

Interesting. A Russian milblogger suggests that Russian troop losses to drones are accounting for 50% of all losses. A lot of discussion on these being corrosive to morale because a drone can kill you anywhere at any time, in a tank, in a troop carrier, in a foxhole right on the front, in a barracks twenty miles behind the front.

This is interesting, a group of gunmen in Karachaevo-Cherkessiya attacked a police checkpoint, using both guns and IEDs. Two policemen were killed and four wounded, along with five attackers.

Karachaevo-Cherkessiya isn't in the news that much, but it's one of the Caucasus republics, not far from Chechnya.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 29 April 2024 - 06:12 PM

[Werthead]

More than 30 significant targets in Crimea destroyed over the past fortnight, including a massive strike on Dzhankoy and Gvardeyskoye last night involving 12 ATACMS. Some Russian milbloggers are saying the situation is developing where AA is destroyed, so Russia moves additional AA forwards onto Crimea where it gets destroyed again. At a certain point, AA assets will not be readily available and they believe at that point Ukraine will bring down the bridge and hit everything they can in Crimea to force a mass panic of the civilian Russian population. Whether that'll be enough for Ukraine to retake Crimea in some fashion is unclear (although it's not certain how they'd achieve that without breaking through the front in Kherson Oblast, and presumably with Russian ground forces remaining intact; the bridge going down hugely complicates reinforcement, but does not prevent it).

At least one milblogger also saying he believes "dangerous tensions" existing with Russian society and are getting more dangerous by the day; possibly a commentary that despite Putin appearing strong this may be illusory and more likely to snap as the war drags on. Maybe a reference to the rumours of Shoigu being caught up in the latest political controversies in Moscow; if Putin feels he needs to remove Shoigu, that's a major ally being effectively removed from the picture.

Britain has delivered 50 AS-90 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, which is around 2/3s of its AS-90 fleet and realistically probably its entire operational stock.

[Mentalist]

UA is hitting refineries again. A few days ago 2 spots in Krasnodar Krai, and last night they hit the Ryazan refinery (one of Rosneft's largest)

The breakthrough at Ocheretyne hasn't been fully stabilized, and they continue expanding the salient to the N.

re: Crimea. Hits on Dzhankoy are going to continue b/c its the only railway junction that connects the railway line from Kerch (and the bridge) to rails that go via the capital, Simferopol to Sevastopol, and also to the railways that go NW and NE into occupied mainland, L bank Kherson Oblast via the bridges at Chonhar and the Perekop isthmus. So I would expect Dzhankoy to become Chornobayivka 2.0. The question is, how good will the air defense be, and whether this will create more gaps in mainland Russia.

[Werthead]

Owch. Three ATACMS missiles directly struck a Russian training ground near Kuban, Luhansk Oblast. It looks like one group of Russian soldiers was hit directly by one of the missiles, with around 100 killed or injured in one hit.

[Werthead]

Apparently no advances on the Ocheretyne front yesterday. Some hope the front is stabilising, along with footage released showing quite staggering Russian losses and angry Russian milblogger statements that their superiority in firepower and momentum was being wasted on meatgrinder attacks on well-defended hardpoints rather than trying to outflank them more. The situation remains fluid, though.

Pretty big Ukrainian hits in Smolensk, Oryol and Rostov oblasts, targeting Russian energy supply systems, resulting in blackouts. Drones also hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 May 2024 - 10:42 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

"Contrary to the expectations that economic constraints would hinder Russia's capacity to sustain fighting, the specter of economic collapse might push [...] Putin [...] to double down on militarization and seek further confrontation, even if aggression against Ukraine hits a standstill," [...]

Spoiler

Since Moscow's Ukraine invasion in 2022, its economic success is chiefly thanks to military-industrial expansions, heavily bolstered by fiscal support from the Kremlin.


[...] That's brought profit to regions that have struggled for years, and are now seeing huge upside from the production shift. Local governments are reporting a surge in jobs, production facilities, and enterprises [...]


At this point, the pivot towards war-based growth is structural, and aggression needs to keep up to preserve the economy

Russia's Economic Survival Depends on Prolonging Ukraine War: Think Tank (businessinsider.com)

Russia's new economy may end up prolonging its war (ft.com)

Wonder if this could partly explain why Trump didn't put up more resistance to the Ukraine aid deal that passed. OTOH occupying Ukraine and getting ready to invade other countries---or 'defend' against imaged potential attacks---could justify continued military spending and production....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 May 2024 - 12:35 PM