[Brujah]

I'm very pro-Russia. I think we should be constantly trying to promote better ties with Russia as they would make an AMAZING ally.

A large, nuclear armed country with multi-millions of crazy white people. How were we ever enemies?

Above is mostly kidding around, except if the US could ally with Russia, the UK, and Germany, then we might no longer need to fear Chinese reciprocity.

On a far more serious note, we should have continued forging allies with all of South America through the OAS, Organization of American States that was begun around 1950.

We also had momentum during the Cuban Missile Crisis of '62 when we once again called on only our fellow American Countries to push a vote to enact the Blockade that stopped Russian ships from shipping arms to Cuba.

There's no reason for our continual lack of serious negotiations towards the purpose of unifying North America and South America from Canada to Argentina.

[Aptorian]

Brujah do you actually read the news or history books? Russia is a dictatorship ruled by oligarchs who's only goal is to gain more power and wealth, suppress the population and attacking it's neighbours in an attempt to rebuild the Soviet empire.

You're sounding like Trump. "Putin's a cool dude, we just need to make can deal and turn a blind eye to their hacking and sabotage and political murders and human rights violation".

[Brujah]

Apt, I made a point to state I was not being serious, somewhere around line 5.

Even in jest, I was most certainly not channeling any version of Trump. I never mentioned neither him, not Putin, in fact.

Asking someone if they've actually "read" the news or a history book is poor form here.

Especially when I state towards the end of my post that if I were more serious, how I think we should have continued making, maintaining, and keeping allies in the American Countries.

You know of the OAS, Organization of American States that is straight out of any decent, random History Book on US foreign policy in the 20th century that i said began around 1950, when after looking it up, the actual date is 1948. So, close I guess.

Then there is the mention of the Cuban Missile Crisis of '62 and the naval blockade that the US and other members of the OAS enacted to block Russian ships from shipping arms to Cuba, as well as preventing an escalation at a time known as the closest the two sides came to nuclear war during thr Cold War.

This is really easy History, yet History none the less. My knowledge on my own countries history is good enough.

[Mentalist]

They are taking forever to set up this press-conference of the "Normandy Four". I am less than optimistic about the potential "resolution"

-Edit: local elections in Donbass in 4 months? WTF?

Yeah, OK. That'll fly. Zelensky agreed to elections in Donbass? lovely. That'll be his political suicide back home.
If they grant Donbas "special status" there will be riots.

Ok, so not election in 4 months, but rather, next meeting in 4 months. That at least limits potential damage.
OSCE is supposed to guarantee the ceasefire... yeah, good luck on monitoring Terrorussians.

Prisoner swap before the New Year is good. I'll believe it when I see it.

uugh. It's impossible to have local elections w/o control over the national border.
Zelensky actually mentioned Crimea. That's impressive.

VVH continues talking about "South-East of Ukraine". Constitutional changes to give Donbass special status. That'll also not work well.
Trying to stress the humanitarian aspect. Cute.

Ideally, there's enough political will back home to keep Zelensky from doing anything dumb.

Q&A: VVH insists that Minsk agreement has to be followed to the letter- meaning, no control over the border until local elections. I don't think there'll be any progress on this, because there's no point in having sham elections while Terrorussians are still running things.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 December 2019 - 11:20 PM

[Gothos]

I'm not deep in the subject, I have to admit, but lately I'm slowly getting convinced that Putin doesn't want Donbas to ever become part of the federation. Instead, use letting it go as leverage to keep Crimea and have a political puppet with strong status to influence Ukraine from the inside and have Ukraine also pick up the bill for rebuilding from the devastation and take care of the subsidies. Retains propaganda subject for domestic politics.

If I was playing Ukraine in a videogame, I'd just get rid of the region, consolidate and come back for it later. Alas, this is real people and real places.

[Mentalist]

Gothos, on 13 December 2019 - 12:11 PM, said:

I'm not deep in the subject, I have to admit, but lately I'm slowly getting convinced that Putin doesn't want Donbas to ever become part of the federation. Instead, use letting it go as leverage to keep Crimea and have a political puppet with strong status to influence Ukraine from the inside and have Ukraine also pick up the bill for rebuilding from the devastation and take care of the subsidies. Retains propaganda subject for domestic politics.

If I was playing Ukraine in a videogame, I'd just get rid of the region, consolidate and come back for it later. Alas, this is real people and real places.

Oh, obviously he's not gonna annex it. Even he's not that stupid.

He wants to plant it back into UA as a "special region", as the first step in trying to turn the country into a federation and eventually expand it throughout the "South-East" all the way to Odessa. The way the Terrorussians have always been drawing their maps.

The problem is, having a "grey zone" that's ripe for smuggling is just too much of a boon for too many interest groups for the matter to ever really be resolved via a proper closed off border.

[Malankazooie]

Damn, my boy Putin got mofos thinking about when food tasters and cup-bearers were necessary and putting them back on the job.

[Cyphon]

Its just a stimulus package for the Russian economy.

[Malankazooie]

Watched Agents of Chaos, about Russian interference in the 2016 election. I've noticed this before, but it has became evident to me after watching the documentary - Putin really goes overboard with how he walks with an obvious swagger. Any you guys notice that?

[EmperorMagus]

Malankazooie, on 17 October 2020 - 03:17 PM, said:

Watched Agents of Chaos, about Russian interference in the 2016 election. I've noticed this before, but it has became evident to me after watching the documentary - Putin really goes overboard with how he walks with an obvious swagger. Any you guys notice that?

https://www.theguard...training-report

[Malankazooie]

Yikes, the comments section on that. Should not have read *bad-kazooie! *never-read-comments-sections

[Malankazooie]

Just wondering, has Putin made a statement yet?

[Mentalist]

In the midst of everything happening last year, Armenia and Azerbaijan had another war, and Russia won.

Azeris broke a ceasefire in order to take back control over the Armenian-held enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the 7 occupied rayons that lied between the enclave and the Armenian border. They managed to take 4 out of the 7, cut the only road from the NKR into Armenia, and right before the ceasefire, they also captured the second largest city in NKR.

Now Russians will bring in peacekeepers to maintain what's left of NKR; Azeris will receive control over their old territory, as well as the gains they've made into the enclave; the peacekeepers will ALSO set up a protected road that will connect the Nakhichevan Azeri enclave on the western side of Armenia with Azerbaijan, creating a contiguous land connection, which is... interesting- it gives Azerbaijan a direct connection to a border with Turkey, bypassing Armenia.

Interesting stuff, feels like a Russia-Turkey deal. The pro-West Armenian PM who tried to take the country out of Russia's influence will get sacked for losing the war (to be fair, he did publicise re-settling NKR with Armenian ex-pats, provoking the escalation). So Armenia is back into Russia's choking embrace stronger than ever.

Meanwhile, Azeris get closer ties to Turkey and also get to preen at "returning their ancestral lands". Everyone is happy (well, except Armenians. And all the people who died/whose families suffered losses).

[Mentalist]

So, Zelensky actually did a patriotic thing.

He ordered the shutdown of 3 TV channels bankrolled by the pro-Russian "Opposition Party For Life" ("life" being the opposite of "death" that war brings- basically the "let's make friends with Russia" club). The party is composed of the remainder of Yanukovych's Party of Regions (later renamed Opposition Block), and the political party of one Viktor Medvedchuk, once the "grey eminence" of Ukrainian politics. Former head of President's Administration under Kuchma (Ukraine's second president), Medvedchuk is a kum of VVH. "Kum" is the relationship between the birth-parent and a god-parent of child- I'm not sure who baptized whose kid, but basically Medvedchuk is practically family to VVH. Him finally taking the spotlight as a head of the official opposition was a pretty big deal, given he remained out of the spotlight since Kuchma handed off the country to Yuschenko after the Orange revolution in 2004.

And now Zelensky unilaterally closed his media presence, which was basically pro-Russian propaganda. It remains to be seen what actually comes of this- and if Zelensky fails to make it stick, he will probably get eaten alive in the next elections, since it becomes obvious he's got no actual power--but a pretty stunning move, one that kinda makes me follow the news again... except there's still no viable alternative to Zelensky's brainless populists coming from the progressive/reformist/national-minded camp- which feels as splintered as it ever was.

Nothing feels particularly hopeful, but it's an interesting dynamic nonetheless.

[Mentalist]

weeeeellll

Shit's getting real, fat.

So, back when Poroshenko took over in 2014, and especially after the "cerasefire" in 2015 when the Battle for Debal'tsevo was over, He really cracked down on the various nationalists that wee the "informal vanguard of the Maidan",including Right Sector and the various volunteer battalions.

One of these cases involved an arrest of a Right Sector activist in Odessa who was accused of mulitiple crimes, including kidnapping and racketeering. I'm not too familiar with the actual cases, and can't speak to the guy's character. Suffice to say, his cases were in legal limbo for a while.

But yesterday, empowered by his popularity spike after his confrontation with Medvedchuk, the Pres let the grinderstones of Ukrainian justice loose. His legal team is headed by one Portnov- the second evilest man in Ukrainian politcs after Medvedchuk, who happens to be an evil legal genius, and has been instrumental in pretty much every major decision that undermined Ukraine's governance. He basically runs the informal administration that orders Ukrainian judges around. And so yesterday, despite paucity of actual evidence, the activist, Sternenko, was convicted to 7 years' imprisonment.

There are already small-scale protests, and there's a massive rally planned for Saturday. There's a very good chance for the political situation to end up destabilized, and this could have dire consequences for the ongoing war. In 2 months, tops, the spring thaw will dry up and the Terrorussians will have an opportunity to renew hostilities- their latest declaration states that they lay claim to the entirety of Donbass and intent to "liberate" the remaining part of the 2 oblasts, to establish the borders along the administrative borders of these 2 oblasts (Currently altogether, LNR and DNR control about a third of the total area of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts)

The issue for Zelensky is very much the fact that the judiciary is considered completely untrustworthy by 0ver 70% of Ukrainians, since no one who isn't well-connected feels safe from trumped-up charges. And having a judge who was an escapee from Donetsk, where he very much professed Soviet nostalgia convinct a nationalist on a very evidentiary case is very easy to make look like a a dispaly of political terror tactics, using a corrupt and dependent judiciary. And this is obviously going to be interpreted by the "passionate patriotic" segment as a direct threat. And those are radicals, many of whom are war vets, with a fuckton of weapons being in circulaiton, because, y'know, WAR.

So it's looking really scary, and there's a very good chance Zelensky could let the situation spiral out of control, and pretty much all the country's oligarchs will be great to see him crash and burn, since his gung ho attitude is starting to disrupt their status quo.

[Mentalist]

The weekend protests were entirely peaceful, Zelensky was given "one week" to figure things out. Doesn't look like much will happen aside from the usual platitudes; Sternenko's case has been appealed, but it'll take a while to work its way through courts.

Meanwhile, the US have imposed sanctions on Igor Kolomoyskyj, who is one of Ukraine's biggest oligarchs, and the direct sponsor of Zelensky's campaign (his TV shows were being aired on Kolomoyskyj' channel, "1+1" which has been the dominant force in Ukrainian-speaking media since the late 90s.)

Curious just how Zelensky will react, since I don't really see him going after his patron, as that would effectively cut off his actual resource base. Most major oligarchs in Ukraine have more actual power than any given government branch, so it'll be interesting to watch how this develops.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Russia vows retaliation for new US sanctions:

[...] "All this is just an excuse to continue overt interference in our internal affairs," [...] Russian foreign ministry [...] said in a statement[...] "We do not intend to put up with this. We will respond based on the principle of reciprocity, but not necessarily symmetrically."

The Biden administration earlier in the day [Tuesday] said it plans to issue sanctions and accused Russia's intelligence agency of attempting to kill Navalny.

"Our goal is to have a relationship with Russia that is predictable and stable. Where there are opportunities for it to be constructive, and it is in our interest, we intend to pursue them. Given Russia's conduct in recent years, there will also undoubtedly be adversarial elements and we will not shy away from those," [...] "The United States is neither trying to reset our relations with Russia nor are we seeking to escalate."

The new sanctions on Russia target seven high-ranking officials in the country. The U.S. is also imposing export controls on several business entities involved in biological agent production.'

https://thehill.com/...t-intend-to-put

Has me wondering what Putin &co. could or would (realistically) do... seems like direct cyberattacks by the Russian government would carry too much risk of escalation, while economic sanctions would be ineffectual. Indirect cyberattacks might defeat the point of vowing to 'respond'....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 05 March 2021 - 04:55 PM

[Mentalist]

German Banks have also discontinued funding to Russia Today in Germany, which is a strong move, since info wars is something VVH has been way ahead of the curve in.

The actual extent of Navalny sanctions feels pretty symbolic; if this somehow breaks "North Stream" project then we can talk about anything effective.

[Mentalist]

in 4 days, "Bellingcat" will show its new documentary concerning the mercenary group "Wagner" that's been involved in the Donbass war, as well as Syria, Venezuela and other places where Russia had geopolitical interests.

The CIA, MI6 and Ukraine's MoD had a joint operation to capture a whole bunch of "Wagner" personell when they were en route from Belarus to Turkey. But, predictably, there was a leak, allegedly from Zelensky's admin, and now the whole thing is a mess.

The Admin continues to deny any of this happened; soon their lies will become public knowledge, and that's gonna be another hit to Zelensky's ratings.

At the same time, Terrorussians are mobilizing in DNR, Russian media is drumming up hysteria that US is arming Ukraine to invade Russia.

Things are gonna get really nasty in the spring, once the thaw is over, and the ground is dry again.

[Mentalist]

Russian Military exercises are supposed to take place in Sept.

Many of Russia's most modernized and battle-ready units are being transferred to Crimea and the oblasts around UA's Eastern Border. There's a fuckton of hysteria in Russian media regarding UA trying to reclaim Terrorussian territories and Russians having to be ready to "defend their fellow Russians". This is patently absurd, since UA doesn't have the capacity, nor the leadership to actually carry out any aggressive military action atm.

Moreover, Zelensky is... creating chaos. He's trying to rule by decree, and using the Security Council - an "advisory body" to issue additional sanctions against anyone who gets to be declared as "enemy of the state".

The issue is, all of these decisions are aggravating interests of multiple oligarchs. And Zelensky's own parliamentary faction that has 58% of votes in the Rada is composed of a number of "groups" who represent said oligarchs' interests. So if he pisses off enough right people, he'll end up having absolutely no leverage.

To make things worse, Zelensky doesn't exactly have massive public support anymore. Last year's local elections showed that local elites were able to dominate pretty much all major cities and industrial hubs. This map shows that Zelensky (2nd lightest green that dominates in the centre) doesn't enjoy a ton of support in majority of the country. Pro-Russian Opposition Block (dark Blue) is still somewhat monolithic, but they've lost the entirety of Dnipropetrovsk oblast in the center, as well as the crucial Kherson oblast in the south- the region that directly cuts Crimea off from the mainland and controls the delta of the Dnipro river, the hydroelectric dams and the Crimean canal. Dark purple represents the larger chunk of Kharkiv oblast that was dominated by the (now deceased) Kharkiv mayor, Kernes.

 Райони_2020.png (51.71K)
Number of downloads: 0

Corona situation isn't being handled particularly well, either and that's killing the economy.

That is to say, I have no idea what's gonna happen, But the situation's worrying.