[Mentalist]

I need to go on a media blackout, b/c there's too much tension building up in the news about VVH's new military buildup RN.

Russian propaganda is whipping up a frenzy about "NATO is arming UA to try to "pacify Donbass". We will not allow another Srebrenica (nevermind that Russia vetoed the UN resolution to recognize Srebrenica massacre as an act of genocide), and we will interfere and force Ukraine to peace. And if we are forced to interfere, that will be the end of Ukraine". These are high-ranking officials like the MFA and VVH's press-secretary stewing this crap. Supposedly, UA is so deep in a political and economic crisis that it'll be looking for a "quick and victorious war" to distract the people. Funny how the same can be said about Russia itself, except they've got an army that is MUCH, much more equipped for the task...


The rhetoric is, frankly, exhausting. On the one hand, you've got the "Russian dissidents" and Uki media who are saying that "Russia will pay dearly if it invades, and Ukraine's army is much better prepared to resist an invasion than it was in 2014". On the other you've got Russian propaganda (see previous paragraph, followed by an army of bots who repeat the same mantra that "it's time to liberate the Russians of the South and East who will welcome us with flowers as the liberators from the fascist Banderite yoke". Which is so fucking ridiculous, I don't know where to begin addresing these delusions.
Then you've got the Ukrainian media cheerfully saying how much international support we've got, and how invading Ukraine will make Afghanistan and Chechnya seem like a walk in the park until the West jumps in, and sanctions Russia back to the Stone Age- which is a whole other level of dangerous naivete.


At the same time there's a sinking realization that Ukraine has no real airforce to speak of, our S-300s AA systems are out-ranged by Russia, our tanks are both technically inferior AND under-fueled; Given the latest round of Belarussian subjugation, the northern border's a total liability; Yeah, Turkey's giving us drones, and they'll even be manufactured in UA< making use of those AN factories; but Kharkiv is less then 100 clicks from the border, and at least 40% of the population won't resist the invaders (conservative estimate);
Basically, IF a "real" war breaks out, ala Russo-Georgian war of 2008, and Ukraine doesn't get immediate assistance to lock down the airspace, it's realistic to expect us to be pushed out of the Black Sea, with Terrorussians taking Odessa and basically stopping at the Romanian border. (Until they decide to unite with Transnistria and eat Moldova for shits and giggles.) Unless someone does something crazy and threatens to blow up one of the nuclear power plants in the South to halt the invasion. \

There's a very "summer of 1914" feeling in the air with all of the posturing back and forth between VVH's spokesheads and the West. It's beyond unnerving. The general message being "Look, it's completely unreasonable for a war to start now and no sane person would do it. But we're dealing with a complete fucktard so all bets are off."
If they finish Nord Stream, there'll be literally nothing holding them back, too. Depressing.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 12 April 2021 - 05:18 AM

[Mentalist]

Biden spoke to VVH directly.

Russian MoD sez exercises will last another 2 weeks.

Next Wed VVH has his annual speech to the Federal Council.

2 American ships supposed to enter the Black Sea and stay in Odessa until 1st week of May. May 2nd will be the 7th anniversary of a clash between Pro-Russian and Pro-Ukrainian rallies that ended up with a fire in Trade Union building that ended the "Russian Spring" in Odessa, but cost the lives of 48 people (2 Maidan supporters and 46 pro-Russian activists). It's not impossible that Terrorussians might use any memorial rallies as an excuse to stir something up to get another opportunity to concoct more "Ukrainian fascist atrocities".


Maybe things will cool off a bit after Biden spoke to VVH? who knows.

[Mentalist]

Sooo..... new sanctions for interference in American elections

A bunch of personal stuff, PLUS starting June 14th, Russia will no longer be able to borrow money to re-finance its national debt.

Also, uuh.. there's a National Emergency declared now in the States? I'm hearing last time this happened was during the Cuban Missile crisis.

https://nypost.com/2...lobs-sanctions/

Can someone more knowledgeable on the US govt procedures fill us in what this means?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 15 April 2021 - 05:17 PM, said:

Also, uuh.. there's a National Emergency declared now in the States? I'm hearing last time this happened was during the Cuban Missile crisis.

https://nypost.com/2...lobs-sanctions/

Can someone more knowledgeable on the US govt procedures fill us in what this means?

'From the enactment of the National Emergencies Act in 1976 until April 2021, 70 emergencies have been declared; 37 have expired and another 33 are currently in effect, each having been renewed annually by the president.'

https://en.wikipedia...he%20president.

Seems like the invocation of the National Emergencies Act is mostly being hyped by places like Fox News and the (right-wing tabloid the) NY Post. Alarmist rhetoric.

'A national emergency is a situation in which a government is empowered to perform actions not normally permitted. The 1976 National Emergencies Act implemented various legal requirements regarding emergencies declared by the President of the United States.'

https://en.wikipedia...e_United_States

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 15 April 2021 - 07:45 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 15 April 2021 - 05:17 PM, said:

Also, uuh.. there's a National Emergency declared now in the States? I'm hearing last time this happened was during the Cuban Missile crisis.

https://nypost.com/2...lobs-sanctions/

Can someone more knowledgeable on the US govt procedures fill us in what this means?

'From the enactment of the National Emergencies Act in 1976 until April 2021, 70 emergencies have been declared; 37 have expired and another 33 are currently in effect, each having been renewed annually by the president.'

https://en.wikipedia...he%20president.

Seems like the invocation of the National Emergencies Act is mostly being hyped by places like Fox News and the (right-wing tabloid the) NY Post. Alarmist rhetoric.

'A national emergency is a situation in which a government is empowered to perform actions not normally permitted. The 1976 National Emergencies Act implemented various legal requirements regarding emergencies declared by the President of the United States.'

https://en.wikipedia...e_United_States

Hmm, yes, it appears to be standard procedure when imposing sanctions by presidential decree.

[Mentalist]

Hrm

VVH will be adressing the FedCouncil tomorrow with his annual speech about what's happening in the country and his goals for the future.

At the same time, the as-of-yet-not-arrested Russian opposition will be holding an un-sanctioned rally in support of Navalny and "the rest of political prisoners" (but mostly just Navalny). Speaking of, last week, the Russian govt asked the courts to declare Navalny's "Fund dedicated to Battling Corruption" (FBK) an extremist org. This would mean that anyone supporting FBK (be it via reposting their messages, liking them on ze socials, or donating to them) can be deemed an "extremist"- including retroactively, obv. I'm not particularly concerned baout Navalny (Ukis don't really consider him an ally after his "Crimea isn't a sandwich to be passed back and forth" speech that basically meant "we weren't in the right to annex Crimea, but we ain't gonna give it back either". Though he's certainly a great symbol for non-brainwashed Russians to realizze just how f-ed up their police state is becoming.) The fact that the West is using Navalny's health and threats to his life as reasons to impose more sanctions is neither here nor there, imo- there can't be any serious sanctions (read: targeting Russia's economy) sanctions for these human rights violations; and any personal sanctions will just irritate VVH, making him more stubborn if anything. The actual amount of people who openly support "liberal" opposition (as opposed to hardcore left-wing, such as Communists or even more hardcore radical Stalinists) is far from the critical mass needed to effectively stage any kind of anti-government protests. "Liberals" are still firmly associated with "anti-Russian Western puppets" after Yeltzin's the Bad Old 90s, so the popular support of this fledgling middle class/intelligentsia/student/youth opposition isn't really anywhere near what it needs to be to try to change things- which is precisely why the regime's increased attempts to totally suppress them feels so excessive, absurd and misguided. SInce Russians generally tend to favour strong government, however, I'm not expecting any major changes from the grassroots. Hard to predict any serious destabilization in the near future, but TBH, I thought the same about UA 6 months before the revolution. Then the govt started to hype up the Association Agreement before suddenly changing their minds, resulting in a major "WTF" and frustration protests- which were then unnecessarily dispersed, prompting the actual revolution. So.... who knows? But I don't think the level of popular discontent in Russia is nearly strong enough for any protests to actually succeed, or even to destabilize the regime to any significant degree right now.

On the 22nd (Thur), Lukashenko will be meeting VVH in Moscow. Earlier this week, Belorussian KGB agents conducted a joint operation with FSB in Moscow to arrest 2 Belorussian opposition members, who supposedly were planning to stage a military coup against Lukashenko with the assistance of the CIA. Given the 2 opposition members are a lawyer and a literature professor, this feels incredibly believable. Nevertheless, Lukashenko has a stated that he "made the most important decision in his 25 years as President" and he will be making a statement about it int eh near future. Seems pretty obvious we're talking about even closer ties to Russia; the question is "how close?". And whether UA needs to start digging trenches on the northern border.

Czech Republic and Bulgaria are joining US and UK in ordering Russian diplomats to leave the country in connection to past diversions linked to the Russian military intelligence diversions. Conveniently, this also means Russians are out of the tender to builder another reactor to a Czech power plant.

French pres met Zelensky on Monday, and afterwards Macron made a statement that didn't pressure UA to take the next steps to implement the Minsk agreements- rather France joined the Western chorus of "Russia needs to reverse military buildup at the UA border ASAP in order to reduce tension". A small win, but a win nonetheless.

Merkel has re-stated that Germany needs North Stream 2 and will totes finish building it. Pragmatic to the end; but the problem is, once Russians demolish the Uki pipe, they're not gonna have any problems blackmailing the EU, because breaking the rules is their normal. That's how appeasement works.

Turkey declared support for UA's territorial integrity and re-stated that Crimea is Ukraine. They're also selling us shiny drones. Russia made Turkey a restricted no-fly zone, so about half a million tourists who booked vacations in Turkey are SOL... except most are re-booking to fly to Turkey thru Minsk.

The rest of the week will be tense, as we're waiting to see what VVH sez about his intention to escalate/de-escalate the situation.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 23 April 2021 - 03:38 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Russia Plunges Into Era of "Dictatorship" as Putin Looms Over Eastern Europe

FINAL BATTLE [... hyperbole I hope?]

Thousands risked violence and imprisonment to protest Wednesday in a final battle against Russia's descent into outright authoritarianism.

MOSCOW—The day began with a dystopian wave of pre-emptive arrests. Many of his opponents were already under lock and key by the time President Vladimir Putin used an annual state of the nation address to remind people what happens to popular uprisings within striking distance of the Kremlin.

[...] Putin claimed that while the West was supposedly stirring up insurrection in the region, "Nobody thought of Ukraine's fate and does not think of consequences for Belarusians."

[...]

Many are reluctant to join the protest because they fear lengthy prison terms, not just the short administrative detentions of up to 15 days, which have been commonplace throughout the Putin era.

And yet, tens of thousands are taking to the streets in what they see as the final battle in Putin's transformation into a dictator.

[...]

Roizman told The Daily Beast on Wednesday that several years in prison was an unpleasant thought for a 58-year-old, but he
was unwavering in his determination. "This is a philosophical question for every Russian: Either you live for the rest of your life as a slave and coward, or you come out to feel yourself a free and brave man," he said.

[...]

Moscow politician Vladimir Ryzhkov told The Daily Beast that the country has changed since Navalny's arrest at the airport as he returned from Germany three months ago.

"Russia is a dictatorship now, where young people, university students get prison terms for innocent posts on social media," he said. "It will be even worse. Decline of the economy, capital outflow, shrinking incomes, technological lag—these are the inevitable consequences of Vladimir Putin's domestic and foreign policies."

After speaking to The Daily Beast, Ryzhkov was one of hundreds arrested for supposedly organizing Wednesday's rallies after he reposted details on social media.

[...]

Gennady Gudkov, a Russian opposition figure in exile, insisted that this dark new era would never snuff out all opposition to Putin. "This is not the end of the resistance in Russia," he told The Daily Beast. "When Putin turns into a dictator supported by military forces, the opposition will radicalize and work from the underground."

On Wednesday morning, Navalny's wife, Yulia, posted an Instagram video of herself with the caption: "I am the queen of the underground." [Tsarina maybe?]'

https://www.thedaily...europe?ref=home

'Russia orders troops back to base after massive buildup near Ukraine border

[...]

"I believe that the objectives of the snap drill have been fully achieved. The troops have demonstrated the ability to provide a reliable defense of the country," [Russian defense minister] said'

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

'how are the [Ukrainian] soldiers? Are they holding up or are they tired of this war?

ZELENSKY: They are tired, of course. Like, hey, man, nearly seven years, it's longer than the Second World War, as you see them, and it's terrible.

CHANCE: Longer than the second with its complex network of dank, muddy trenches, this so-called line of contact in some places just a few dozen yards from the enemy looks more like the First World War.

I mean, we've entered this warren of trenches that have been dug along the frontline. I tell you, I mean, it's like being thrown back to the early 20th century and the great war, because I've not seen anything like this in modern warfare.

But this is modern, the reality of confrontation with Moscow and its proxies.

Is there a chance that the Russians could be planning an invasion?

ZELENSKY: Of course, we know it. Beginning from 2014, we're now at heads. It can be each day, it can be. So they are ready and -- but we are also ready because we are on our lands, on our territory.'

http://www.cnn.com/T.../13/cnr.17.html

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 23 April 2021 - 12:08 AM

[Mentalist]

It would appear that we are heading towards an at least temporary de-escalation.

Russians are withdrawing a decent chunk of forces, though the field camp around Voronezh is gonna remain- which means they're gonna have a staging area for any future force projection towards the northern, agrarian rayons of Luhansk Oblast, as well as Kharkiv, which is a semi-pro-Russian linchpin of Ukraine's defensive efforts- that's where most of Ukraine's armored vehicles come from, and the Antonov Construction Bureau and factory will be making the engines for the Turkish war drones we'll be equipping the army with. So I don't think the tension's gonna dissipate quickly on Ukrainian side; maybe this'll make the govt get their shit together and buff up some defenses along the border? Hopefully.

No momentous announcements on the Belorussian front just yet. Which is encouraging.

The problem with a "liberal, middle-class-driven" revolution within Russia, even if it were possible (which I don't think it is atm), is that it would end up very similar to an Arab Spring one- out of the 150-odd million Russians, somewhere between 10 to 20 million actually support the "western democratic" values. So if the country was to have a "democratic" election, you'd either end up with some ultra hardcore leftists doing the back to the USSR or a right-wing dictatorship in charge. And no one can really afford instability and a specter of civil war in a country that's 1/6th of Earth's surface and has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. So all the world powers- both the collective West and China are far more interested in maintaining the "stable"dictatorship that's willing to sell them the abundant natural resources, then steal the money from the people and spend it abroad anyways. As long as said dictators don't do (much) to offset the delicate security balance.

At least for now. If China starts getting more radical due to an impending aging population/demographic collapse, then things might change.

[Mentalist]

With the treat of the immediate threat averted, Zelensky is going back to feuding with oligarchs. Medvedchuk was informed that he is suspected of high treason. Judicially, the Prosecution is doing everything VERY half-assed, and the Pres doesn't control the courts- the Grey Eminence Portnov does, and Portnov is one of the most pro-Russian figures in Uki politics, who is much more likely to play on Medvedchuk's side. 44

So what this does is bring Zelensky into direct conflict with the biggest stakeholders in the Uki political establishment; While he has the illusory public support, he doesn't have a loyal government mechanism to actually enforce his agenda. Big businesses have the real majority in parliament, which is why despite Zelensky's own party having over 50% of the seats, his Cabinet is unable to govern efficiently- because all it takes several "groups " of 15-20 deputees who were brought in as a specific oligarch's "quota" tlo not show up, and the "majority" loses quorum.


Finding himself in this situation, Zelensky is trying to use not-quite-constitutional methods to rule by decree; the problem with this is that it upsets even those oligarchs currently loyal to him, because it creates uncertainty as to who will be the next victim of this power creep. Ukrainians generally dislike any leader with a dictatorial bend (that's kinda why Yanukovych got ousted), and tend to tolerate these tendencies up to a point while they align with what are perceived to be their interests- so pressing a clearly pro-Russian Medvedchuk, whose media machine continues to deny Russian involvement in Donbass and calls what's going on there a civil war is going to be seen as a positive move by the patriotic segment, regardless of the legality of the methods; similarly, expropriating oligarch property can be played off the left-leaning electorate that's left without much of an anchor in UA after both the Socialist and Communist parties lost legitimacy by alignining with the pro-Russian bloc- the SPU back in 2007 (when they were part of the Orange Coalition, but then formed a parliamentary majority with Yanukovych and the Communists), and the CPU in 2014 (when they refused to take a pro-Ukrainian position at the height of the Revolution and thus discredited themselves as a political force that is against Ukrainian governance. These left-leaning voters are thus now steady fodder for various populists from all camps.

The major issue with Zelensky is, ofc, his stunning incompetence. The fact that he and his "team" have no idea what they are doing is making it hard to really root for them in all this. They still have some base, but nowhere near the 75%+ support that swept them into power in 2019. The army doesn't trust them, and the police has its own game to play- Minister of the Interior Arsen Avakov has been basically the only politician who's kept his position since 2014, surviving 5 different cabinets so far. He's made himself an institution, and he walks the tight rope between upholding the legitimate governements (by not allowing street protests to escalate) and at the same time being "pro-patriot" enough to not irritate the passisonate segments too much- quite remarkable, actually. At the end of the day, if places like Odessa, Kharkiv or Zaporizhya were to have their own influx of "polite Green Men" and a "Russian Spring-2", even with the presence of a much stronger patriotic segment in these cities willing to stand up to Russian intervention, the support, or at least neutrality of the police would be key in allowing to quash such separatist tendencies. And it's probably important that Kharkiv is Avakov's home turf and it were his conflicts with the pro-Russian mayor Kernes and his crony governor Dobkin (now running for mayor, after Kernes passed away from Covid) that drove the Russian-speaking Armenian Avakov to the opposition and eventually allowed him to become who he is. Avakov as chief cop is seen a guarantee that there won't be a "Kharkiv People's Republic", so he's made himself an institution that's largely above most politics. But that does not mean that he is automatically going to support Zelensky against oligarch-backed protesters, either. Which brings me back to my original point, which is that Zelensky is trying to act tough, but he's really got no resources to back that, which makes his long-term prospects questionable.

The real tragedy is, there does not seem to be anyone useful who can actually take over and make something good happen, once this populist nightmare is over. And that is truly depressing.

[Mentalist]

HRM

Given the diplomacy b/w Biden, Merkel and VVH, that only barely involves Zelensky, we are seeing the following:

1) US wants to make nice with Germany as the EU leader, so Nord Stream 2 will happen. This means Ukraine loses 2 billion a year for gas transit, AND in addition, the West no longer has to care about any infrastructure that may get blown up on Ukraine's territory if, say, the hostilities were to resume.

2) Germany wants to play nice with VVH, and US, which needs both the EU and Russia to be on-board for the upcoming confrontation with China, is OK with that. What Ukraine wants in this context is irrelevant. Which is why Zelensky is now being pressured to legislatively enforce the Minsk agreements and legalize the "special status" of the territories occupied by the Terrorussians -- which would be political suicide for any leadership in UA.
-in this context, it's telling that the Minister of Police who's been in power since 2014 resigned this week. In the case potential riots he would be the one responsible for getting the troops on the streets to disperse them.

What we're seeing is a very unfortunate situation where Ukraine's becoming a nuisance to great powers that's gonna get left by the wayside. Zelensky is now trying to increase relations with China (who is actually Ukraine's major trading partner, who buys our grain and ore), because there's literally no guarantees he's getting from the West that Russia can actually be halted, if they decide to do something more.

Unless we see some diplomatic miracle breakthrough after Zelensky's visit to the US, things are liable to start getting VERY ugly. Majority of Ukraine's population is not ready to accept the virtually autonomous "people's republics" back into the country, since they will remain Russian puppets with legitimate veto powers and no means of removing this status. You've also got thousands of ex-servicement who fought against the occupiers and their local separatist henchmen, who aren't gonna be willing to reconcile with those who continue shooting at them. This would perceived tantamount to capitulation, and given overall complicated economic situation and ongoing additional attempts to exert control over all aspect of Ukrainian society, it could lead to massive expressions of discontent, to put it lightly.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 17 July 2021 - 06:54 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

This probably works better here than the Olympics thread but this is a bit crazy!

BBC News - Belarus Olympics: Krystsina Tsimanouskaya refuses 'forced' flight home
https://www.bbc.co.u...europe-58046183

[Cyphon]

I'm really not surprised this happened in the slightest.

It's more interesting to see who offers Visas for her and I'm presuming others if they can still get out after she led the way.

[Malankazooie]

Whoever offers her asylum will hopefully not have a flight that takes her over Belarus airspace.

[Mentalist]

So now Russia is using their influence on Europe via gas prices to declare that NATO has to stay away from UA, and al of post-Soviet space. There's a risk of invasion (again), and it's very clear that the West won't be fighting Russia.

At the same time, Zelensky isn't doing anything to stabilize or mobilize the country. On the contrary, he's trying to enforce his power by undermining most oligarchs (exrcept those who are being exceptionally loyal) and also crushing the small and mid-size businesses, by racheting up taxes, pretending to be "fighting the shadow economy". This isn't actually going to stabilize the country.

It does not appear that the Uki govt is doing anything proactive. which means that we're allowing the West to set the limits for what happens. This creates many risks.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 27 December 2021 - 08:07 AM

[Mentalist]

Huh. What a twist.

Riots and maybe revolution in Kazakhstan. Where Russian and Chinese interests intersect.

Ostensibly, the issue for civil outrage is the deteriorating economy, and hiked up natural gas prices. The new Pres, who was put in place by Nazarbayev as a puppet, is gonna take the opportunity to consolidate his own power- but that's if he actually can survive this.

[Mentalist]

So, RUssia-UA and Russia-NATO negotiations took place.

And Russia didn't get any "security guarantees" they were looking for, and they consider further negotiations to be pointless at this juncture.

This suggests UA needs to be going on high alert, since the Terrorussians don't have much left to lose.

[Mentalist]

Jesus fuck.

So, Zelensky accused Poroshenko (former Pres) of treason. Poroshenko was on vacation, but tomorrow he's intending to "return home and fight the traitor Zelensky". Tomorrow. While Russia is massing forces on the border, waiting for a reason to move in at any sign of instability.

His supporters want to "prevent his arrest". And they want to have a quasi-revolution now.

It's gonna be a messy week.

[Mentalist]

So much stress today. End of day "bombshells" that despite all the international support Ukraine has been getting, tomorrow Zelensky's chief pro-Russian foreign policy advisor will present the Normandy Four with paperwork that basically caves into VVH's demands on Donbas

Could be fake news; could be continuation of Kyiv's policy of "sign ambiguous paperwork, and then get bogged down in interpretation" strategy; hard to tell.

If there are any actual concessions, they'll get too much public backlash. Hopefully they recognise this.

Nothing to do now but wait for tomorrow.

[Mentalist]

Possible deescalation in the works, as we are heading into the Olympics, and Xi would probably strangle VVH if he caused a news story that would hijack attention away from Bejing.

That being said, the West is in full on "you need to be panicking" mode, while Zelensky is trying to calm the populace, and especially foreign investors, b/c the war panic could tank the economy more effectively than any invasion.

Considering that the "brilliant" economists of the Ze-team "took advantage" of the hikes in natural gas prices during the spring and summer to sell most of the country's gas reserves, and there's not enough coal since the coal that UA was (illegally) importing from the occupied Donbass is crucial to keep the thermoelectric plants working during the winter, Ukraine's energy sector is hanging on a very thin thread. A lot of small businesses, such as food manufacturers (bakeries, dairy factories, etc) can't afford to operate with such high natural gas prices and are forced to halt production. Due to over-exporting (again, to make quick money) the country may not have enough wheat and flour;


There is a million of internal issues, to put it lightly. But there is a very consolidated response to the threat of outside aggression. There's several hundred thousand of demobilized veterans who are helping to organize territorial defense that would resist any potential invading/occupying force via partisan insurgency. At this point, UA has several times as many antitank missiles than the Russians have tanks; anti-air and anti-artillery/missile defense remains an issue, but that is something of a doomsday scenario if the Russians commit to an all-out assault.

The expectation is that Russians can pressure Zelensky into implementing the Mink Agreements the way Russians want them to-- by amending the constitution to grant the Terrorussian republics "special status" within Ukraine, making Ukraine de-facto a federal state a la Bosnia, where each federal subject can block any key decisions with the existing Russian government remaining an untouchable political power in the demo facto independent Donbas.

This "compromise" is unthinkable to large portions of Ukrainian society-especially considering that Ukraine didn't actually suffer a devastating defeat. The 2015 Debaltsevo operation led to loss of a lot of equipment, but the actual human losses were minimal, because front-line commanders ignored the High Command's orders and organized a steady retreat breaking through the Terrorussian encirclement. For these reasons, Ukrainians aren't ready to make any serious political concessions to Russia, which is a problem for the West that really needs a rapprochement with Russia to handle China.
But Ukraine's current refusal to deal is making it a curious ideological stumbling block. It remains to be seen how that will work out.

In any case, until the Russian Far Eastern troops finish their exercises in Belarus and go back to the Chinese border, there's no real reason to relax.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Putin quoted song lyrics about rape and necrophilia to explain Russia's demands from Ukraine

[...] Macron met Putin [...] to try to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

After the meeting, [...] Putin quoted Soviet-era punk-rock lyrics about rape and necrophilia to demonstrate what Russia wants from Ukraine.

Putin made the comment in a press conference [...] following a five-hour meeting with [...] Macron'

https://news.yahoo.c...-105210633.html

Could've just led with that and finished the meeting early?...

'In Russia, the law on “Russian traditional values” is about to be adopted. Threats to these values, according to the document, are "implanted into the citizens of Russia":

"cult of selfishness"
"cult of permissiveness"
"cult of immorality"
"denial of the ideals of patriotism"
"denial of the ideals of serving the Motherland"
"denial of the ideals of procreation"
[...]
"denial of Russia's positive contribution to world history and culture."'