[Gust Hubb]

I love how Russia says the newest sanctions will foster an environment favoring terrorists. As if supplying the rebels in Ukraine with the subsequent downing of a civilian aircraft isn't terrorism or worse.

[Mentalist]

Gust Hubb, on 26 July 2014 - 03:34 PM, said:

I love how Russia says the newest sanctions will foster an environment favoring terrorists. As if supplying the rebels in Ukraine with the subsequent downing of a civilian aircraft isn't terrorism or worse.

Most recent EU santions are a bloody joke (respect to Canada for adopting US-level sanctions, and to the UK, for declaring no weapons components for Russia) EU continues to stick to personal sanctions, as well as targetting frigging CRIMEAN companies.

Until EU hits Russian banks, or major industrie,s nothing will change. Well, except for the fact that we'll keep pushing the terrorists back, slowly but surely. But as long as Russians will continue to shell us from across the border, completely unnecessary deaths will continue.

[Terez]

What is the outlook for the attempt to recapture Donetsk?

[Mentalist]

Terez, on 27 July 2014 - 02:21 AM, said:

What is the outlook for the attempt to recapture Donetsk?

The city is blockaded from the west and south, partially from the north (the airport is on the northern outskirt of the city). Since the paratroopers who've been beseiged at the airport have officially been deblockaded, the fighting has shifted within the city limits.

From the east, Donetsk is joined by another large mining city, Makiivka. The giant aglomeration includes also cities of oblast value (i.e, governed independently by city councils, outside the jurisdiction of regional councils) of Yasynuvata to the north, and Khartzysk further to the east, along the road to the "mining heartland"- the region where the MH17 went down, close to the Russian border.

Further to the north-east is the city of Horlivka, with the neighbouring Yeankiyeve (hometown of the former president Yanukovych). Horlivka is being held by another GRU officer Bezler ("Bes"/"Devil"), and the fighting there is also on the outskirts of the city.

The problem, of course, is the fact that the ATO leadership, as well as the UA government is refusing to adopt Russian methods to dealing with the terrorists. The ATo is attempting (not always successfully) to minimize civillian casualties, which makes a ground operation a slow going.

Today ATO forces have been involved in a struggle for the city of Debal'tseve, which is quite literally the key to Donbass, as it sits astride the intersection of teh two crucial highways- Luhansk-Donetsk and Rostov-Kharkiv, as well as being the biggest railway hub. Reportedly, it's been taken. If true, means both Strelkov and Bes are nearly cut off from the Russian border--tehy lose supply line from Luhansk, and can only rely on the road through Shakhtarsk- Snizhne-Krasnyj Luch-Sverdlovsk for resupplying from Russia. And even that is compromised, since after taking Debaltseve, ATO are within striking distance to Krasnyj Luch both from the north-west (Debaltsevo) and the north-east (from Luhansk, through Luhutyno, which, while nominally controlled by terrorists is an agrarian region, and has little love for the LNR). Should the ATO capture Krasnyj Luch, the entirety of DNR-held territory will become isolated, though dealing with them will obviously still take time and effort.

So to answer your question, leberation of Donetsk is nearly inevitable, but it's unlikely to happen any time soon. Along with Makiyivka and smaller cities around, the aglomeration probably has at least 1.5 million people, with Horlivka and Yenakiyevo adding close to another half a million to that. liberating such a densely populated area, while keeping casualties to a minimum will take time.

[Gothos]

Encircling an "army" in a large city aglomeration in the southern steppes is something of a flashback, hm? Only, I guess, there won't be 24/7 artillery shelling of the pockets like there was 71 years ago.

In any case, much respect for dealing with this situation on a better level than the IDF in Gaza. Image is crucial, as Serbia's learned in the 90s.

[Mentalist]

Aaaaand things are moving a LOT quicker than expected.

UA command took the gamble-after securing Debalt'seve they've pushed straight south--some 20 clicks through essentially fields--and hit Shakhtarsk from the north, where no-one expected them. Reportedly, terrorists have been routed, fighting's shifted further east to Torez, with Russians hurriedly bringing in reinforcements to Snizhne.

In any case, Donetsk is now essentialy cut off from the Russian supply line. Which is a good thing.

At the same time, fighting continues in Horlivka. Supposedly, "Bes" has fled (some say dead after Uki artillery shelled his HQ in Horlivka's Police HQ building), his second in command hasn't come up with anyhtitng better than to threaten to blow up the chemical plants in the city if the assault isn't halted.

[Mentalist]

Ukrainian army has arisen like a phoenix from the ashes from 24 years of cutbacks, theft and degradation.

through efforts of volunteers and generosity of the populace, troops are getting all kinds of suplies, from NATO body armour and nightvision goggles, to basic foodstuffs and sturdy shoes.

Through a pretty rapid process of trial and error, incapable colonels and generals who have paidfor their rank and are iether incompetent, or sympathise with Russia are being weeded out of the ATO command structure.

As a result: yesterday Ukrainian military has carried out an unprecedented advance. using the newly captured road and railways hub Debalt'sevo as a springboard, they have launched a forced march south towards the Donetsk-Shakhtarsk-Snizhne-Krasnyj Luch-Sverdlovsk highway--the last major road used to supply terrorists groups in Donetsk and Horlivka.

After a day of fighting, along with a renewed assault from the south of Donetsk oblast, ATO forces have forced the terrorists out of Shakhtarsk and almost succeeded in pushing them out of Torez, prior to getting bogged down and pushed back (somewhat) by a reinforcements column that came from Sverdlovsk. They have, however, achieved the main goal of the operation-the supply lines for the Donetsk and Horlivka groupings have been cut, and the two groupings have been isolated both from LNR and from the Russian border.

Fierce fighting continues on the stretch including Shakhtarsk and Torez. Today ATO has captured the strtegically important mountain Saur-Mohyla,which was the main DNR firebase blocking the 3 brigades of the Ukrainian army that were holding the border under crossfire from both Russian regulars from the south,a nd terrorists from the north. resupply and troop rotation operation is underway.

In the vicinity of Donetsk, ATO has entered the city of Avdiyivka, some 6 clicks north of Donetsk itself.

Fighting continues over Pervomaysk, which is being assaulted by the "Donbass" volunteer battalion. Pervomaysk is the new northern outlying post of the LNR, in the territory controlled by the Alchevsk grouping, which is quickly losing operating ground.

Tomorrow, the EU foreign ministers meets yet again. There's a strong buzz that this time there's a strong consensus between Germany, UK, France and Italy as to the need for strong sanctions against Russia. Here's hoping...

[Terez]

I finally had to unfollow Valentina Lisitsa. I can handle a certain amount of propaganda, and I can handle a certain number of graphic images of violence, but the combination of the two is nauseating. The more the fighting intensifies, the more worked up she gets, and her tweets end up being half my feed.

About a week ago I tweeted her the aforementioned Nation article and asked her what she thought of it. She didn't respond, but one of her followers did, a Russian-born emigré who said the article was "spot on", and a discussion of some finer points ensued. I cut Lisitsa out of the conversation after a couple of tweets, but a few days later she tweeted out that article herself, thanking The Nation for their "dispassionate" journalism. The Russian guy on Twitter conceded the points I made, saying the article might be flawed and the writer might be biased. Then (as I just now noticed!) he went back and deleted most of his tweets to me regarding that article, leaving only the last one (which was very cryptic and came on the tag end of the discussion after I had stopped responding). It was all very strange.

Incidentally, the editor-in-chief of The Nation, Katrina vanden Heuvel, linked to that article in her piece about MH17, so it's not simply rogue reporting at the magazine. I wish I knew where to look for solid, evidence-based reporting on the civilian casualties in Ukraine. Mentalist, do you have any good English links concerning this "growing body of evidence" that the numbers are being exaggerated and civilian casualties are even being staged?

[Mentalist]

Terez, on 29 July 2014 - 05:53 AM, said:

I finally had to unfollow Valentina Lisitsa. I can handle a certain amount of propaganda, and I can handle a certain number of graphic images of violence, but the combination of the two is nauseating. The more the fighting intensifies, the more worked up she gets, and her tweets end up being half my feed.

About a week ago I tweeted her the aforementioned Nation article and asked her what she thought of it. She didn't respond, but one of her followers did, a Russian-born emigré who said the article was "spot on", and a discussion of some finer points ensued. I cut Lisitsa out of the conversation after a couple of tweets, but a few days later she tweeted out that article herself, thanking The Nation for their "dispassionate" journalism. The Russian guy on Twitter conceded the points I made, saying the article might be flawed and the writer might be biased. Then (as I just now noticed!) he went back and deleted most of his tweets to me regarding that article, leaving only the last one (which was very cryptic and came on the tag end of the discussion after I had stopped responding). It was all very strange.

Incidentally, the editor-in-chief of The Nation, Katrina vanden Heuvel, linked to that article in her piece about MH17, so it's not simply rogue reporting at the magazine. I wish I knew where to look for solid, evidence-based reporting on the civilian casualties in Ukraine. Mentalist, do you have any good English links concerning this "growing body of evidence" that the numbers are being exaggerated and civilian casualties are even being staged?

Check out
http://www.stopfake.org/en/news/

for debunking some obvious propaganda.

I'm afraid you misunderstood me. I don't deny the number of civilian casualties-since the terrorists don't make any claims, official numbers come from the reports from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast admins-which are still (technically) the local govt on Donbass.

The biggest point of contention is "who is shelling the occupied cities?" And since there is no official UA presense in these cities, evidence comes through eyewitness accounts, social media, and youtube postings. I am unaware of whether there is a single source that collates all of it.

[Mentalist]

FUCK YEAH!!!

EU sanctions 3.0, prelim:

-Russian banks and corps with over 50% state-owned capital are CUT OFF from EU credit markets, except for VERY (90 days) short-term loans.

-Embargo on sales of military tech to Russia by EU (excludes existing contracts, so the French get to sell their bloody "Mistrals")


-Embargo on hi-tech sales in energy sector- such as deep-sea and shelf mining tech.

Plus, West oil companies pulling investments out of Russia as of yest.

YUKOS judgement-$50 billion Russia needs to pay out. Russian corporate foreign debt-about $650 billion already.

this will hurt them.

EDIT: and harsher sanctions from US as well.

IN response, Russia's announcing new "exercises" in the South, and also testing mid-range ballistic missiles. Cold War 2, here we come....

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 29 July 2014 - 07:46 PM

[Terez]

Mentalist, on 29 July 2014 - 01:46 PM, said:

Terez, on 29 July 2014 - 05:53 AM, said:

Mentalist, do you have any good English links concerning this "growing body of evidence" that the numbers are being exaggerated and civilian casualties are even being staged?

...I'm afraid you misunderstood me. I don't deny the number of civilian casualties-since the terrorists don't make any claims, official numbers come from the reports from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast admins-which are still (technically) the local govt on Donbass.

The biggest point of contention is "who is shelling the occupied cities?" And since there is no official UA presense in these cities, evidence comes through eyewitness accounts, social media, and youtube postings. I am unaware of whether there is a single source that collates all of it.

Just to be clear, I was drawing from two separate posts of yours for that question, particularly the underlined bits.

Mentalist, on 22 July 2014 - 04:28 AM, said:

RE: shellings of civillians. I suspect the author of the article wrote it after watching a Vice News marathon. While I will not deny that Ukrainian military has fired on civilians, and civilians were killed by stray fire (which is a fact I sincerely regret), the numbers of those killed by ATO forces are highly exaggerated--and there is a mounting body of proof showing that, aside from using such awesome tactics as setting up a howitzer inside a kindergarten to attract retailiatory fire, or evicting civillains in high-rise apartment blocks to set up machine gun or sniper nests in their homes, the terrorists have actually shelled civilian neighbourhoods from centres of cities they occupy. And, here's a funny thing: every time there's a shelling/bombing that's later denied by Ukrainian military, withing literally MINUTES there's a Russian TV camera crew on the spot to report on the latest "atrocities commited by Ukrainian fascists". In Donbass there's already a growing superstition-if LifeNews (Russian TV channel) reporters appear in a neighbourhood--chase them out immediately, before you're pounded to the ground.

Mentalist, on 28 July 2014 - 11:07 PM, said:

Cause, on 27 July 2014 - 11:25 PM, said:

In the US-Russia relations thread Gothos praises the Ukrainian forces for not going the way of the IDF. What he means when a quick check shows that the fighting in one city alone has caused over 500 civilian casualties and both sides have been accused of targeting civilians by human rights watch I have no idea. I posit that you can't drop bombs in a city without killing a civilian at some point. Since your probably fighting over a city where else would you drop the bombs?

...there's a growing body of video evidence of terrorists (considered that by me since they've started taking hostages) shelling the cities they occupy from one end to another to make the destruction seem as actions of Ukrainian government forces. Also, see the immediate appearance of russian propaganda channel LifeNews at the sight of such "fascist atrocities".

The very reason the fighting in Ukraine is still going is precisely BECAUSE Ukrainian government values civilian lives over those of soldiers and refuses to bomb the places occupied by the terrorists into the ground--often at the cost of their own personel.

Also, the conclusions were made by Human Rights Watch Moscow office, so I'm gonna reserve my right to be sceptical, thank you very much.

I hope that someone is compiling the evidence, because it is an important distinction to be made. As the Nation article demonstrates, and then Cause, the rest of the world has limited information upon which to make these determinations.

[Cause]

Mentalist, on 29 July 2014 - 04:03 PM, said:

FUCK YEAH!!!

EU sanctions 3.0, prelim:

-Russian banks and corps with over 50% state-owned capital are CUT OFF from EU credit markets, except for VERY (90 days) short-term loans.

-Embargo on sales of military tech to Russia by EU (excludes existing contracts, so the French get to sell their bloody "Mistrals")


-Embargo on hi-tech sales in energy sector- such as deep-sea and shelf mining tech.

Plus, West oil companies pulling investments out of Russia as of yest.

YUKOS judgement-$50 billion Russia needs to pay out. Russian corporate foreign debt-about $650 billion already.

this will hurt them.

EDIT: and harsher sanctions from US as well.

IN response, Russia's announcing new "exercises" in the South, and also testing mid-range ballistic missiles. Cold War 2, here we come....

I am pleased for you since from my limited understanding of this conflict Russia is without a doubt at a fault.

Still these sanctions seem pretty weak and more symbolic than actually hurtful. Does Russia need foreign weapon systems? And France will still sell the mistrals? Seems half arsed. I also understand the Yukos thing is entirely separate issue from this conflict and Russia will be allowed to appeal.

Also do we regard the vote by Crimea to join Russia as being illegal or invalid because they don't have the right to make it or because we believe that the vote was manipulated?

This post has been edited by Cause: 29 July 2014 - 08:47 PM

[Vengeance]

Cause, on 29 July 2014 - 08:23 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 July 2014 - 04:03 PM, said:

FUCK YEAH!!!

EU sanctions 3.0, prelim:

-Russian banks and corps with over 50% state-owned capital are CUT OFF from EU credit markets, except for VERY (90 days) short-term loans.

-Embargo on sales of military tech to Russia by EU (excludes existing contracts, so the French get to sell their bloody "Mistrals")


-Embargo on hi-tech sales in energy sector- such as deep-sea and shelf mining tech.

Plus, West oil companies pulling investments out of Russia as of yest.

YUKOS judgement-$50 billion Russia needs to pay out. Russian corporate foreign debt-about $650 billion already.

this will hurt them.

EDIT: and harsher sanctions from US as well.

IN response, Russia's announcing new "exercises" in the South, and also testing mid-range ballistic missiles. Cold War 2, here we come....

I am pleased for you since from my limited understanding of this conflict Russia is without a doubt at a fault.

Still these sanctions seem pretty weak and more symbolic than actually hurtful. Does Russia need foreign weapon systems? And France will still sell the mistrals? Seems half arsed. I also understand the Yukos thing is entirely separate issue from this conflict and Russia will be allowed to appeal.

Also do we regard the vote by Crimea to join Russia as being illegal or invalid because they don't have the right to make it or because we believe that the vote was manipulated?

The vote by Crimea was invalid because according to the Ukrainian constitution any vote for a part of the country to leave has to be voted on by the entire country not by the part that wants to leave. Also Russia had a treaty with the Ukraine where as they would not attempt to take any part of the country. Especially Crimea. If the Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons, which they did.

As for the appeal of the Yuko's verdict. Unfortunately for Russia that court is in the Netherlands. I am going to guess that they are going to have a much harder time of it now.

As for the sanctions, being cut off from the european and american credit markets is going to make it very difficult for companies to get long term funds. They will most likely have to borrow from the russian government but still it is going to put a very big damper on the Russian economy as a whole.

Then if the Yuko verdict is upheld you can start to expect a lot of companies that the russian government owns or owns a majority of to lose their foreign assets.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 29 July 2014 - 08:23 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 July 2014 - 04:03 PM, said:

FUCK YEAH!!!

EU sanctions 3.0, prelim:

-Russian banks and corps with over 50% state-owned capital are CUT OFF from EU credit markets, except for VERY (90 days) short-term loans.

-Embargo on sales of military tech to Russia by EU (excludes existing contracts, so the French get to sell their bloody "Mistrals")


-Embargo on hi-tech sales in energy sector- such as deep-sea and shelf mining tech.

Plus, West oil companies pulling investments out of Russia as of yest.

YUKOS judgement-$50 billion Russia needs to pay out. Russian corporate foreign debt-about $650 billion already.

this will hurt them.

EDIT: and harsher sanctions from US as well.

IN response, Russia's announcing new "exercises" in the South, and also testing mid-range ballistic missiles. Cold War 2, here we come....

I am pleased for you since from my limited understanding of this conflict Russia is without a doubt at a fault.

Still these sanctions seem pretty weak and more symbolic than actually hurtful. Does Russia need foreign weapon systems? And France will still sell the mistrals? Seems half arsed. I also understand the Yukos thing is entirely separate issue from this conflict and Russia will be allowed to appeal.

Also do we regard the vote by Crimea to join Russia as being illegal or invalid because they don't have the right to make it or because we believe that the vote was manipulated?

Sanctions are not as harsh as they can be, yes. Good reason for that: one thing the West can find more terrifying than Russia on a warpath is Russia imploding from a political/economic crisis. Because than you get a re-run of the Russian Civil War. Except, y'know, with nukes and such.

And as Vengy says, being cut off from money markets is a huge deal. Russia's banking sector is not very well-developed, about 60% of it is controlled by less than a dozen major banks. Foreign investments have been fleeing the country since the beginning of the Crimea adventure-prior to this round of sanctions, the estimates were 100 billion USD in capital flight this year. Now this number's projected to double within a calendar year. The ruble hasn't plunged to reflect this due to constant emissions of Russia's gold reserves in order to keep the currency stable. it's difficult to say just how much is being spent, but Ukraine, with a much less developed, but also much smaller total economy, has halved its gold reserve in 2 years keeping its currency afloat-some 30 odd billion How much Russian economy can take, is hard to say--but they are already entering recession, and there's no systemic reasons to believe the situation will improve. Russian Central Bank has raised interest rate this weekend in anticipation of sanctions--which is not what you do in a recession.

Does Russia need foreign weapon systems? A resounding YES. Not so much weapon systems, as hi-tech weapon systems components --Russia lost a large portion of its closed cycle weapons production with the collapse of the USSR, since different specialized factories ended up in different new republics. Some were re-organized, some scrapped. Russians managed to replace some of the import they are dependent on, and Putin was quite adamant about the need to restore 100% closed cycle, but that's a goal that hasn't really been achieved yet.
Also, Russia has had a really bad case of bad brain, getting progressively worse in the 90s, and with the second coming of Putin, which cemented the system and condemned the R&D to the "underfunded, low-income, underprivileged" when compared to the bureaucracy caste.

Re: Mistrals. France is in a bad spot. Their socialist Pres is losing popularity, b/c he's been unable to curb unemployment. Backing out of the Mistral contract means several thousand jobs lost--not much on its own, but highly significant in that context. I don't like the decision, but honoring contracts is one of those rule of las European values, so I can't wholeheartedly condemn France for squirming their way to this loophole.

YUKOS is, indeed, separate, but it's momentous timing means it falls into the general "West is trying to suffocate us" mindset Russians are gettign right now. The Arbitration Court was in the Hague, and so the appeal will be heard by a Dutch court. I don't think the Dutch judges will be able to be completely impartial to the whole MH17 thing.

RE: Crimea vote. Several points:

1) As Gothos pointed out, the "referendum" was done in an unconstitutional matter. Ukrainian Constitution states that Crimea is an autonomous republic within a unitary state. This isn't an issue of a subject of a federalization trying to leave it--it's a part of unitary state trying to split apart.

2) The circumstances around the "referendum" raise a whole host of questions--in particular, the "vote" was off-cameras in a building seized by what was later acknowledged to be Russian special forces. It's notable to note that a week prior, the same Crimean parliament was unable to reach quorum in order to voice any separatist-intending declarations, despite declared intentions to do so. After declaring a "referendum" the date was pushed forward 3 (!!!!) times.

3) The procedure for the "referendum" raises a number of questions. Western journalists reported that they were able to vote without passports, at multiple polling stations. The "international observers" that were present were all representatives of European ultra-Right parties that have been lobbying Russian interests in Euro parliament and some have been accused to be financially sponsored by Russia.

4) The presence of "polite little green men", as well as "people's self defense", numerous documented instances of violence against pro-unity supporters, and especially journalists. Direct interference and instances of opened fire and armed seizures of Ukrainian military installations in Crimea.

5) Lastly, and most crucially--the fact that immediately upon declaring independence, Crimea was absorbed into Russia. This fact shatters any credibility of the analogy to Kosovo used by Russians to justify their actions--"USA took a piece of Serbia and made it independent, why can't we?". Ignoring the glaring differences (such as absence of any ethnic tensions in Crimea), the key point of difference--Kosovo didn't join Albania. Analogy fail, Russia.

[Gothos]

Well, to be completely honest about Kosovo, it was a complete mess, and Operation Allied Force was excessive in civillian casualties. As a long-term consequence, it shoveled the Serbian nation right into Putin's hands - I don't think even Russians buy Putinganada as readily and hungrily as Serbs do, at least based on the sample size I know. Also, I'm not sure if Albanians weren't being ferried in for the referendum, nor am I clear about how the referendum stood legally as Serbia was not a federation - shouldn't the referendum be held in the whole country? Or is that just a Ukraine thing?

[Obdigore]

Gothos, on 30 July 2014 - 06:57 AM, said:

Well, to be completely honest about Kosovo, it was a complete mess, and Operation Allied Force was excessive in civillian casualties. As a long-term consequence, it shoveled the Serbian nation right into Putin's hands - I don't think even Russians buy Putinganada as readily and hungrily as Serbs do, at least based on the sample size I know. Also, I'm not sure if Albanians weren't being ferried in for the referendum, nor am I clear about how the referendum stood legally as Serbia was not a federation - shouldn't the referendum be held in the whole country? Or is that just a Ukraine thing?

It's in the constitution of Crimea, and of the Ukraine, that if any part wants to leave, the entire country votes yes or no.

That's beyond the already noted accusations of no polling control, no international observers, 'official' numbers being released on RU before the poll was even taken, and the fact that the majority of native Tatars didn't vote because the options were:
1) Join Russia!
2) Become Independent under your current leadership, who said they plan to Join Russia!

There was no 'keep things as it is now' option. Here is a NY Times piece on the 'choices' offered and the lack of participation from the Tatars (Which would most likely not vote to rejoin russia in any way after what they suffered from previous russian leadership)
http://www.nytimes.c...s-quo.html?_r=0

[Cause]

Any updates on the situation. Where should I be looking, this is getting zero coverage here.

Al

[D'iversify]

Cause, on 30 July 2014 - 03:57 PM, said:

Any updates on the situation. Where should I be looking, this is getting zero coverage here.

Al

The main focus story in the British boradsheets at the moment is the sweeping sanctions being imposed on Russia by the US and Europe ( http://www.theguardi...-eu-governments ). Not sure about new developments but there's an interesting feature in the Guardian today about two journalists attempted 'interview' of one of the rebel leaders ( http://www.theguardi...interview-demon ).

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 30 July 2014 - 03:57 PM, said:

Any updates on the situation. Where should I be looking, this is getting zero coverage here.

Al

not really sure which English resources to use (I stick with Uki sources)

re: updates. there are now talks about a 3-way negotiation (OSCE-UA-RU) with Belarus' President Lukashenko as mediator. Looks like the West is giving Putin another chance to bow out gracefully.

On the ground, it's war. Ukrainian trrops are regrouping, consolidating their gains. Terrorists are resupplying (another tank column from Russia crossed the border today), and trying to press-recruit Donbass locals to fight for them in the occupied cities. Uki troops slowing down their progress, as the territory held by terrorists shrinks to basically gigantic urban aglomerations, which makes street-to-street fighting ridiculously costly and likely to have high collateral damage.

Ukraine's Security and Defense Council updates their situational map every day. http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/?cat=2. Their web-designers are pretty garbage, though. Personally, I don't like those maps too much, b/c they don't seem t be properly scaled, but rather just schematic. They are also overly optimistic (especially when it comes to the estimates of "border controlled" ). Still, they can give a good snapshot, and if you follow them from the beginning, they give a good dynamic of the shift of balance of forces.

[Mentalist]

Today's not gonna be chock full of updates. It was a political day

Uki parliament met. Did NOT accept the Cabinet's resignation. Still no coalition though--because everyone wants the new elections.

Passed the bills re austerity of budget--imposed a war tax, cut MP's salaries, etc. Still no decision on Gas Transport System--that bill needs some reworking, they'll try again in August.

Also, serious talks about about changing electoral system-for the last election, they've adopted mixed FPTP/proportional with closed party lists--a TON of public pressure to do pure proportional, open lists, transparent financing. Hoping they'll push it through.

War-wise, it's a quiet day-Uki army declared a 1-day ceasefire, to allow the OSCE mission to gain access to MH17 crash site. Terrorist, obv, don't do ceasefires, so there's still fighting all over the place, just no ofensive movements by Uki troops. Uki MoD optimists predict the ATO may be ended within a month.

Oh, and Luhansk has no power. That's 400k people. Also, food shortages. the joys of occupation.

Also, there's an OSCE-UA-RU meeting going on in Minsk right now-it remains to be seen how that'll turn out.