[Werthead]

Tsundoku, on 17 September 2026 - 10:29 AM, said:

Thoughts?

Russian manpower problems are significant. They are losing troops at an insane rate and this has burned through their huge reserves, which are almost now non-existent. The forces they have are focused overwhelming only two areas, a 30-mile area from west of Dobropillya across to east of Kostyantynivka and then a tight hinge north past Chasiv Yar; and around Orikhiv on the Zaporizhzhia front. To keep these two fronts advancing, albeit slowly, they denuding troops from elsewhere, such as the line of the lower Dnipro in Kherson Oblast. This has allowed Ukraine to advance on the Lyman front, and just recently some indications of a serious counter-attack on the Russian forces holding onto the border areas in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russia still has a lot of troops, obviously, but it no longer has the tons of volunteers and prisoners it could draw upon, so it needs to consider mobilisation. That will not be pretty if they decide to go for it. If they do not mobilise, they have to switch to a defensive posture and that means giving up on taking all of the Donbas, which also means Putin's position will become untenable.

[Tsundoku]

Cheers lads.

[Werthead]

A lot of jumpy OSINT sources at the moment, believing some kind of major Russian provocation is imminent on NATO's eastern flank. More level-headed sources trying to get people to calm the F down. Russia has not amassed troops along the Baltic or Polish borders, no full-scale invasion is about to take place. A continuation and slow escalation of the current strikes very close to the border is likely.

There are some major military exercises going on in Belarus right now, but only 9,000 troops. Not enough to launch an invasion of Poland, which would be the most insane thing to happen in world history. Lukashenko is not that stupid, though Putin might be.

ETA: Ukrainian intelligence is now claiming that both Russia and Belarus have ordered 20,000 emergency beds to be made available in Belarusian and north-western Russian hospitals.

I'm going to tick my "this is concerning" metre up a notch.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 September 2026 - 09:15 PM

[Mentalist]

Nothing is gonna happen until people in Moscow get the tally from the so-called "elections" and figure out how much they have to cook the numbers to give United Russia 73% of the Duma seats.

If they need to be adding above 25%, they're going to hesitate before doing anything too crazy.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 17 September 2026 - 10:56 PM

[Werthead]

France and Poland both holding extraordinary security meetings, both judging a considerably increased risk from Russia to NATO's eastern flank. No assessment an attack is imminent or probable, but now possible in a way it wasn't a few weeks ago.

Putin may be getting more desperate, or this might be a substantial psy-op designed to cover for another Russian push into Ukraine from Belarus. The situation is not desperate yet, but the risk has increased to a more concerning level than previously (i.e., if the risk of a Russian attack on NATO was previously ~10% it might now be ~20%, still a less likely outcome but the increase is large enough to be worrying).

ETA: The Swiss government is now saying they're expecting things to deteriorate in the near future.

It is possible this response by governments is to the simultaneous ratcheting up of tensions from Russia and the situation in Iran and Yemen, which is likely to push petrol prices much higher in the near future, possibly to the point of major interruptions in fuel supply to Europe. It might be that the assessment is that Russia could try something whilst that was going on, creating a dilemma for European politicians facing internal and external threats simultaneously.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 September 2026 - 07:04 PM

[Werthead]

Russia has declared a curfew along the Estonian border, but some indication it is preparing similar declarations for all its external borders. This might be an attempt to halt Russian men fleeing across the nearest border when conscription is announced.

Ukraine hit the Moscow region hard overnight, with multiple systems hitting Russian refineries and military targets around the capital. Multiple missiles and drones were shot down, some impacting suburban areas. The Pelican fixed-wing drone may have been deployed in numbers for the first time.

Germany and Sweden have deployed 1,500 extra troops to Gotland Island in the Baltic.

[Werthead]

Current analysis from reading the different mood music:

The less-restrained OSINT sources and political accounts who basically never talk about the Ukraine conflict until there's some juice in a story are all predicting a Russian invasion of NATO territory in the next vaguely-indeterminate time period (ranging from tomorrow to four years from now). The evidence for this is in places contradictory: the 20,000 extra beds for wounded soldiers are actually going to the NW regions bordering Finland rather than the oblasts bordering Estonia, Latvia and Belarus-near-Lithuania and Poland, as you might expect. Even Kaliningrad is not receiving extra beds or medical attention, which you'd expect since the Russian expectation for a conventional hot war with NATO is that Kaliningrad would be attacked and probably captured in the opening days to weeks of the conflict.

There is also  no large-scale Russian military build-up along the NATO border beyond the standard troop deployments. One suggestion is the fact that standard deployments have more or less returned rather than every available soldier being sent to Ukraine could itself be masking an attack. There's also the 9,000 extra troops in Belarus for defence drills with Russia. However, 9,000 troops are not enough to make a serious impression on the Suwalki Gap (which is over 100km long, considerably longer than any advance Russia has made in Ukraine in over four years, all within massive and overwhelming NATO air cover). One suggestion is these troops, whose exercises have now wound up, could rapid-deploy to St. Petersburg and then across the border to cover an annexation of Narva, which could be accomplished by a relatively small number of troops fast. A limited annexation of Narva, backed by threats of escalation, could spook and divide the alliance whilst a full-scale invasion of the Baltics would unite it.

It is worth noting that there has been no leaks, discussions, mood music or discussions coming out of the USA. Even assuming Trump would prevaricate over a response to either a limited annexation or even a full-scale invasion, you'd still have some intelligence discussions and emergency meetings on the subject, and none of that seems to be happening. The focus remains on Iran. The UK has also stayed relatively tight-lipped on what's going on, which is in stark contrast to what's happened in other countries, and UK military forces are directly in harm's way at the moment in eastern Europe.

Still, it is undeniable that something has spooked some leaders, on all sides of the spectrum. Even Fico in Slovakia seems concerned, and even Le Pen and Bardella in France have issued some of their strongest criticisms of Putin since the war started (some people have called this "Melonisation," which is unfair to Meloni, who has been relatively consistent on her stance). The current threat analysis seems to be more towards what happens if Russia tries another drone attack at a crowded airport that causes civilian casualties that Russia denies, and NATO's response is direct military action on Russian territory, or even against Russian forces in Ukraine, that Russia then uses as a pretext for military action in the Baltics.

The Guardian is also the first major media outlet to report on the panicking stories running around on social media (and mostly on Twitter, other services relying more on steadier reporters are nowhere near as downbeat) and cast it through the lens of Russian psy-ops, suggesting the panicked response is useful to the Kremlin even if literally now nothing else happens.

We should not rule out the Narva operation and certainly not hybrid drone strikes.

[Cause]

Russia can’t handle the war they have. I’m not Alexander the Great but this strategy seems to have no benefits. They can always retreat behind the shield wall of nuclear power but that will only stop them losing ground. They can’t win ground that way or the capitulation would never end. So I’m skeptical. Even as some kind of negotiating tactic it seems more suited to harden Europe against Putin then deliver relief.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 20 September 2026 - 10:32 PM, said:

Russia can’t handle the war they have. I’m not Alexander the Great but this strategy seems to have no benefits. They can always retreat behind the shield wall of nuclear power but that will only stop them losing ground. They can’t win ground that way or the capitulation would never end. So I’m skeptical. Even as some kind of negotiating tactic it seems more suited to harden Europe against Putin then deliver relief.

We are unsure what their impression of NATO's readiness for a colelctive response is at this point.

If they believe that NATO will try to avoid escalation, prevaricate, and some NATO members might straight-up refuse to contribute to collective defense, then they will continue to gradually escalate their hybrid intrusions, hoping to prompt the crisis response that will demonstrate that NATO's collective security promise is insubstantial.

If they believe that the NATO states will be willing to reply with force, then that would serve as the best deterrence.

[Macros]

Can someone just go shoot Putin and Nehatanyu now

[HoosierDaddy]

Macros, on 21 September 2026 - 06:04 AM, said:

Can someone just go shoot Putin and Nehatanyu now

Can we add to this list?

[Werthead]

Macros, on 21 September 2026 - 06:04 AM, said:

Can someone just go shoot Putin and Nehatanyu now

Netanyahu might end up out of office and in jail in a few weeks, so that might not be a problem.

Putin is clearly rattled by how this is all going, and the more he appears rattled and vulnerable, the more likely someone is to take him out. Even if Putin is succeeded by a hardliner, the hardliner can still end the war because it's not their war in the way it is Putin's, rebuild and then try something else down the line. It's clear the current situation is untenable in the long or even medium term.

[Tiste Simeon]

Eh shooting Satanyahu wouldn't change much the evil and rot is far too entrenched there and I don't see the US lessening support any time soon.

Similar with Trump, though none of his current crop of morons would be able to unite MAGA in the same way IMO, but there's a large swathe of Americans so used to licking the boots of those above them it might be easy enough for them to parachute in another useful idiot.

Putin would be interesting because I think the power struggle would keep Russia out of international affairs for a while.

[Cause]

Mentalist, on 21 September 2026 - 01:38 AM, said:

Cause, on 20 September 2026 - 10:32 PM, said:

Russia can’t handle the war they have. I’m not Alexander the Great but this strategy seems to have no benefits. They can always retreat behind the shield wall of nuclear power but that will only stop them losing ground. They can’t win ground that way or the capitulation would never end. So I’m skeptical. Even as some kind of negotiating tactic it seems more suited to harden Europe against Putin then deliver relief.

We are unsure what their impression of NATO's readiness for a colelctive response is at this point.

If they believe that NATO will try to avoid escalation, prevaricate, and some NATO members might straight-up refuse to contribute to collective defense, then they will continue to gradually escalate their hybrid intrusions, hoping to prompt the crisis response that will demonstrate that NATO's collective security promise is insubstantial.

If they believe that the NATO states will be willing to reply with force, then that would serve as the best deterrence.

NATO can smell the weakness too though. A small response now will stave off decades of problems and dealign with Russia now is easier and cheaper then ever because of how much Ukraine is sucking up their wealth, manpower, military and covert resources too.

Honestly if they try this and NATO doesnt smack it down like gods own wrath, well you cant fix stupid.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 21 September 2026 - 04:09 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 21 September 2026 - 01:38 AM, said:

Cause, on 20 September 2026 - 10:32 PM, said:

Russia can’t handle the war they have. I’m not Alexander the Great but this strategy seems to have no benefits. They can always retreat behind the shield wall of nuclear power but that will only stop them losing ground. They can’t win ground that way or the capitulation would never end. So I’m skeptical. Even as some kind of negotiating tactic it seems more suited to harden Europe against Putin then deliver relief.

We are unsure what their impression of NATO's readiness for a colelctive response is at this point.

If they believe that NATO will try to avoid escalation, prevaricate, and some NATO members might straight-up refuse to contribute to collective defense, then they will continue to gradually escalate their hybrid intrusions, hoping to prompt the crisis response that will demonstrate that NATO's collective security promise is insubstantial.

If they believe that the NATO states will be willing to reply with force, then that would serve as the best deterrence.

NATO can smell the weakness too though. A small response now will stave off decades of problems and dealign with Russia now is easier and cheaper then ever because of how much Ukraine is sucking up their wealth, manpower, military and covert resources too.

Honestly if they try this and NATO doesnt smack it down like gods own wrath, well you cant fix stupid.

Considering the stupid that's currently in charge of NATO's top contributor, it gets hard to blame Moscow for trying.

edit: oh, incidentally, the "elections" are done. United Russia was assigned about 56% of the popular vote (out of the 225 PR seats), but combined with the individual district FPTP seats, they net 355 out of the 450, meaning they have constitutional majority and then some.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 21 September 2026 - 06:55 PM

[Werthead]

ISW runs the numbers on Russia's options for a Narva operation.

They don't seem convinced, noting that even a limited incursion would trigger a massive NATO response, even if the likes of the USA and Slovaka decided to sit it out, and Russia would have limited options for success whilst the bulk of its ground forces remain committed in Ukraine. One possibility is that Russia would try to secure Narva quickly and dig into the town, forcing NATO forces to street-by-street fighting within Russian drone operator range and limited counter-drone options.

Interestingly, the ISW does not take into account that Ukrainian anti-drone brigades (particularly those on inactive fronts) could redeploy from Ukraine to the Baltics to aid NATO forces with not-insubstantial drone forces of their own. Perhaps they calculate that Ukraine would be reluctant to remove anti-drone forces from Ukraine whilst the war is ongoing, but I suspect, given the tremendous aid given to Ukraine by the Baltic States, that Ukraine would do so.

Also left unassessed is that if Russia and NATO get into a shooting conflict over Narva, even if Russia immediately backs down, then NATO may choose to intervene further in Ukraine in the form of limited reprisals, using F-35s to target Russian forces that are currently out of reach for Ukrainian forces due to Russian air defences.

[the broken]

Seems like a pointed exercise to poke NATO to say 'get drone countermeasures'

[Chance]

Werthead, on 21 September 2026 - 09:41 PM, said:

Also left unassessed is that if Russia and NATO get into a shooting conflict over Narva, even if Russia immediately backs down, then NATO may choose to intervene further in Ukraine in the form of limited reprisals, using F-35s to target Russian forces that are currently out of reach for Ukrainian forces due to Russian air defences.

I think the worst possible consequence is that any of the NATO nations in the area could close the Baltic for Russian trade. It would be very bad for Russia and is extremely easy to do. My personal reason why they are never going to do it only threaten.

This post has been edited by Chance: 23 September 2026 - 09:58 AM

[Werthead]

The Russians conducted a limited breakthrough on the Dobropillia-Druzhkivka front, allegedly using just one tank equipped with sophisticated anti-drone AW systems, an active defence system and reinforced armour to advance several kilometres, with Russian infantry teams trying to fill the breach behind it. Ukraine destroyed the tank with drones, but noted it required multiple direct hits. The Ukrainian assessment was the Russian tank was impressive but also eye-wateringly expensive, and Russia would struggle to equip many in that way for a larger-scaled breakthrough. Still, somewhat concerning. The gap in the line has been filled and the Russian infiltrating units destroyed after several days of combat.

Logistics interdiction operations have continued and intensified in recent weeks, with hundreds of Russian resupply trucks destroyed out to 50km or even more behind the front. Russian resupply remains difficult.

The US and Ukraine are close to a deal for widespread US purchase and adoption of multiple Ukrainian drone and drone interceptor systems. Some rumours this will be in return for the licence for native PAC missile construction in Ukraine, for Ukraine and its allies.

Ukraine has developed a fibre-optic drone interceptor system, which can autonomously track incoming FO drones and snip the fibre optic cable.

Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Kupyansk front underway, clearing Russian units from the Dvorichna-Zakhidne area.

Ukrainian reinforcements in the form of Skala battalions from the 425th Assault Regiment have (finally) arrived on the main Donetsk front. Things were starting to look a bit iffy there with Russia deploying 6 attackers for every defender, but the reinforcements should help plug the gaps and give some relief to the Azov Corps on the front line. The fighting here has been insane recently and Ukraine has done unbelievably well to hold this line whilst also carrying out an offensive on the Lyman axis.

Rather bizarre comments coming out of some Ukrainian commentators about a potential "game-changer" moment for the conflict in the next week or two. This was actually said a few days back, so some speculating it was actually about the mass drone assault on Moscow so is no longer relevant, but others thinking it might presage a larger-scaled counter-offensive somewhere else.

Gennady Zyuganov, head of the Russian Communist Party, has broken ranks and called on Putin to end the "exhausting" war.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 September 2026 - 11:26 PM

[Werthead]

Bizarre story circulating that Russia planned to use drones launched from cargo ships to hit targets in Spain, Italy and France simultaneously. Apparently Lithuanian agents uncovered the plan and reported it to NATO members and the US, spurring direct US contact with Russia confirming its commitment to Article 5.

This plan sounds unhinged, at least the Narva or even Suwalki Gap ideas have some intelligence behind it, but this would have just resulted in every Russian ship outside its home waters being sunk and NATO forces likely hitting Russian forces in Ukraine very heavily. Completely barking mad.