[Werthead]

Ukraine's unmanned systems command has confirmed that, under current circumstances, Andrew Tate is not a legitimate military target for their drones.

“Being a shitty person doesn’t make someone a legitimate military target under international law. Climbing on a tank for internet clout isn’t enough to become a combatant."

[Werthead]

Ukraine has hit Moscow with its largest drone strike of the war. According to some sources, almost a thousand Ukrainian drones penetrated Russian airspace and over two hundred hit targets in the Moscow region, including at least seven direct hits on the Moscow Oil Refinery. The Moscow Oil Refinery's key crude distillation units were both destroyed, shutting down its primary oil processing capacity. Unclear when or if they can be replaced. "Oil rain" has fallen across Moscow following the attack, and 527 flights to Moscow have been cancelled or delayed. Footage also confirms that multiple Ukrainian cruise missiles were used in the attack on Moscow.

Multiple shots showing Russian air defence missiles going off-course awry, as well as one Russian soldier firing a MANPADS on a bridge packed full of civilians, who promptly panicked. The photo of the day, showing the entire cover of one fuel tank being blown hundreds of feet into the air, was caused by an AD missile misfiring and hitting the installation it was defending.

Some signs that people are hoarding fuel in Moscow, resulting in multiple petrol stations running dry.

Ukraine also carried out a series of drone attacks on pontoon and permanent bridges across the North Crimean Canal.

Russia has started importing oil by sea because it can no longer produce enough to cover its own needs. For one of the world's biggest oil exporters, that is ridiculous.

Ukraine has intensified a counter-offensive operation. Heavy fighting is ongoing in Zarichna and Novoselivka, whilst Ukrainian forces apparently broke through the Russian lines along the Nitrius River, recaptured Karpivka and pushed on towards Lypove.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 June 2026 - 08:20 PM

[Mentalist]

re: the counter. That's NE of Lyman, meaning UAF is blunting the orcs' attempts to move NW of the city to cut the supply lines and isolate it. Recapturing Lyman would give the orcs a position directly across the Donets' from Slov'yans'k, which is their ultimate goal for this campaign in Donbas.

Which is different from the prior direction of offensive operations at the junction of Donets'k and Zaporizhya oblasts (and there's a Novosilka there as well, to make things more confusing for casual observers)

UAF is sending another wave at Moscow and Crimea. I'm pretty sure the orcs are running short on anti-air munitions.

They are also launching a cruise missile salvo. G7 summer yielded Germany saying they'll provide Ukraine with patriot missiles from their own reserve stock.

There's an arms expo in Paris right now. Firepoint was showing off its missiles and drones, and they had moscow refinery burning footage on their stand- obvious proof of their drones' efficacy.

[Werthead]

Zelensky has given Lukashenko one week to remove the repeaters located along the Ukraine-Belarusian border, and suggested that Ukraine can remove them if he does not do so. He also suggested that Belarus supplying Russia with oil from Belarus's very small number of refineries was a choice, that Lukashenko can choose to stop. With the presumed implication Ukraine can stop it if necessary.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has pummelled all of the bridges linking Crimea to Ukraine on the mainland side, and hit the Kerch Ferry Terminal on the bridge side (the bridge itself is being left alone, possibly as a retreat route). They're also stepping up hits on fuel trucks and oil infrastructure across the peninsula, including destroying the Kerch Fuel Terminal. The major Russian fuel depot outside the town of Bakhchysarai, Crimea has also been destroyed.

This morning the governor of Crimea ordered a halt to all fuel sales for anything other than military purposes.

A massive hit on a semiconductor plant in Voronezh. It appears this might be the first use of the F-16-launched AGM-188A "Rusty Dagger" missile, received from the United States.

Rolling electricity cuts in Crimea. The situation there seems to be deteriorating rapidly.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 June 2026 - 04:38 PM

[Werthead]

Putin has indicated he would be prepared for peace talks on the basis of the Istanbul talks of early 2022. Which is interesting. The terms would still be unacceptable to Ukraine, but they would roll back on full Russian claims to all of the four oblasts. Unlikely to go anywhere though.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Crimea are becoming ridiculous, they've hit all the crossing points again, and have started hitting subterranean fuel storage depots which the Russians thought were safe and undetected. Some Russian civilians have started leaving Crimea. There are wild rumours about a Ukrainian naval assault (with what navy, is unclear) being imminent.

[Cause]

What happened to the repeaters?

[worry]

Cause, on 24 June 2026 - 01:49 AM, said:

What happened to the repeaters?

[Tiste Simeon]

worry, on 24 June 2026 - 03:54 PM, said:

Cause, on 24 June 2026 - 01:49 AM, said:

What happened to the repeaters?

[Mentalist]

Zelensky is claiming they stopped broadcasting as of the 22nd.

We've heard some z-heads whining that muscovite SIM cards were being jammed in Belarus last week.

We will have to wait and see whether there's an actual drop in the number of drones coming from the North to verify this.

[Werthead]

The Moscow Oil Refinery is offline until 2027. The damage is so severe they can barely start repairing the damage in the next couple of months, and it won't be back online until at least early 2027.

Russia has apparently asked Kazakhstan to start supplying oil to make up for the shortfalls in the system.

Fuel prices in the Rostov region adjoining Ukraine are reaching their highest-ever prices, and some gas stations are out of fuel.

A Russian in Israel saw a Ukrainian flag, tore it down, was stopped and the flag was restored to its prior position. The Russian man responded with a burst of antisemitic invective - in Israel - and stormed off.

Ukrainian intelligence and communications are really ramping-up the psy-ops about a Ukrainian attack on Crimea. Budanov has said that Crimea's return to Ukraine is "inevitable."

Ukraine has issued a preliminary report that at least some of the drone signal repeaters along the border with Belarus have been dismantled, and others may have been deactivated. Ukraine is monitoring the situation to see if they still need to take kinetic action.

Three years ago today, the Russian Wagner Group was death-screaming up the Rostov-Moscow highway, blowing Russian helicopters out of the sky and being bombed in turn by Russian aircraft, whilst roughly half the Russian military put Putin on "nu fone who dis?"

Crazy times.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 24 June 2026 - 08:00 PM

[Werthead]

There is currently a 20-mile tailback extending across the Kerch Bridge into Crimea with people trying to flee.

[Mentalist]

Considering they officially declared state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol, it makes sense.

People are starting to realize that fuel shortages means ALL logistics (including civilian stuff, like bringing food from storehouses to the shops) is under threat.

And Crimea is a peninsula of over 2 million people that is totally NOT self-sustainable. And UA is taking off the kid gloves wrt power infrastructure.

Meanwhile, we had another prisoner swap, 160 each way.

[Tiste Simeon]

Interesting article about Westerners moving to Russia because they like the apparent conservative and "anti-woke" values. Ironically, some of them are immigrating because they dislike immigration...

BBC News - The people leaving the West behind in search of the Russian dream - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.u...es/cn075j04pnyo

[Cause]

Tiste Simeon, on 27 June 2026 - 03:46 PM, said:

Interesting article about Westerners moving to Russia because they like the apparent conservative and "anti-woke" values. Ironically, some of them are immigrating because they dislike immigration...

BBC News - The people leaving the West behind in search of the Russian dream - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.u...es/cn075j04pnyo

Stories like this have been floating around for years.

I’ll never understand being so homophobic you move countries.

[Werthead]

Putin and Lukashenko have held a 2-day conference in Valdai. Apparently it is "routine" but alleged insiders claim that Putin has asked Lukashenko to join the war in a more direct fashion, and has applied considerable pressure to that end. Lukashenko is likely to prevaricate.

After a month of Russia shoring up the lines in western Zaporizhzhia successfully, it appears that Ukraine has worn down their reinforcements, and some Ukrainian recon units have moved closer to Kamyanske. Logistics strikes in this area are extremely heavy.

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a Russian mobile fire group tasked with protecting fuel shipments in Crimea.

Ukraine has bombed a road bridge in Rozdolne, Crimea. The road bridge collapsed downwards onto a rail line, totally blocking it. Russia attempted to bring in equipment to clear it, by rail, but then couldn't because the railway line itself was destroyed where it crossed the North Crimean Canal. Russia seems to be struggling to work out how to repair these structures in order.

Ukraine has lost two MiG-29s in the last few days, one destroyed at an airfield and one in combat operations over the front. A reminder that Russian AA systems have been degraded, but not completely destroyed.

Ukraine used a barrage of Flamingo missiles to severely damage the Titan-Barrikady factory in Volgograd, 550km from the launch site. Russia destroyed two missiles in flight, but three survived to hit the target.

Russian milblogger "Lunin" has been arrested after saying the war may end with the army "turning its guns on the Kremlin."

[Werthead]

Multiple Russian units have produced threatening videos in support of Lunin (who is a military veteran as well). Very interesting.

Ukraine has devastated the Slavayansk-on-Kuban oil refinery, Krasnodar, with massive explosions and fires ripping through the complex. Looks like a very heavy series of hits. The Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl also took a heavy hit.

Additional OSINT sources now showing additional Ukrainian gains around Kamyansk.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 June 2026 - 06:22 PM

[Werthead]

Someone in Moscow getting a grandstand view of two Ukrainian cruise missiles slamming into a refinery last week.

The governor of Crimea appears to be defying Kremlin orders to keep quiet about the scale of the shortages on the peninsular. Instead he has said there are no large-scale deliveries being made, and further restrictions on fuel sales are being introduced, limited to the military and emergency services only.

Lukashenko has visited Beijing. Lukashenko has good relations with Xi and seems to have pivoted to Chinese support as a way of putting off Moscow's demands for Belarus to join the conflict.

Ukraine has used Flamingo cruise missiles to hit the Dubna Space Communications Center in Moscow Oblast for the second time. The first attack was judged ineffective because it hit the admin building.

Ukrainian, European and Russian opposition sources are all now strongly convinced that Putin will announce a further mobilisation of 300,000-500,000 troops in September, and Russia is preparing for potential-large scale flight from the country in response, as well as possible protests.

Perun update on recent military activity from both sides.

[Cause]

For the first time in a long age a Ukraine war Story actually hit my feed and it was the mayor of Moscow complaining about drone strikes.

Ukraine seems to now have the Tempo in this conflict. Belerus clearly doesn't want to step into it and Russia is desperate for something to change, so they can get back into the driver seat but haves no real options left. Putin signaling a willingness talk? Could we as Churchill might say finally be approaching 'the end of the beginning' of this conflict? There truly seems to be no path forward for Russia anymore or am I being overly optimistic?

[Werthead]

Cause, on 30 June 2026 - 07:19 PM, said:

For the first time in a long age a Ukraine war Story actually hit my feed and it was the mayor of Moscow complaining about drone strikes.

Ukraine seems to now have the Tempo in this conflict. Belerus clearly doesn't want to step into it and Russia is desperate for something to change, so they can get back into the driver seat but haves no real options left. Putin signaling a willingness talk? Could we as Churchill might say finally be approaching 'the end of the beginning' of this conflict? There truly seems to be no path forward for Russia anymore or am I being overly optimistic?

There seems to be a strong likelihood of Russia enacting a mobilisation in the autumn to try to finish the war by seizing the rest of the Donbas, then returning the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv to Ukraine in a peace deal. They'll probably accept a partition of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Ukraine is now pushing to see if they can get much better leverage. They know Russia needs Crimea much more than maybe the Donbas and the other occupied territories altogether, so if they can put it under real pressure, they might look to get a better deal. They may also be looking to the success of their drone campaign and see if that can translate into a major strategic shift, possibly through the western Zaporizhzhia offensive. If they can start converting the supply cut-offs into a real breakthrough, Putin may feel he has to make a deal now or risk losing a vast swathe of the captured territory. Making a peace deal after that point might basically just be suicide for him.

Ukraine has to be somewhat cautious, they have achieved some successes but they are still having some issues with manpower recruitment (not as bad as early last year, when things got critical for a while), air defence procurement and keeping the power grid online. The Ukrainian people are resilient, but coming up on the four-and-a-half year mark of the conflict is really seeing some fatigue set in. But the Ukrainians are also not idiots, they know they cannot accept any deal which allows Russia to attack again six months or six years after the deal is signed. That means the gap between what Putin will accept and what the Ukrainians will accept remains too wide.