[Werthead]

The Russian government ordered Yandex to blur 119 locations on their mapping service which are militarily sensitive. Yandex complied, and by simple comparing cached images from last week with today, everyone was able to immediately identify the 119 locations. Some of these were not previously known to be military sites. The Ukrainians are very grateful for this information. Plus people can just cross-reference with Google or Bing Maps and immediately see the sites anyway.

Russia attempted a border breach at Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, but this was defeated by Ukrainian forces 

Nine out of Russia's big ten refineries have taken major hits recently. The last, Omsk, is 3000km from Ukraine which has so far protected it, but I doubt that can continue. Ukraine has hit targets around Kurgan, which is 2000km from Ukraine.

Some intelligence services confirming that Putin pressed Lukashenko on joining the war against Ukraine and Lukashenko said Belarus simply lacked the troops, terrain or weaponry to do so, and was also negative on allowing Russian troops to transit Belarus to do so. This resulted in his trip to Beijing to get Xi to offer support.

Ukraine destroyed an Su-30SM in its hardened shelter during an attack on a Crimea airfield. Four other hardened shelters were hit, but their aircraft seem to have survived.

Ukraine confirmed over 675 square kilometres of territory has been liberated since the start of 2026, and Ukraine is now carrying out between 45% and 50% of all daily offensive actions by both sides.

Ukraine is stepping up attacks on infrastructure. A bridge on the Mariupol-Donetsk highway over the Malyi Kal'chyk River near Hranitne has been destroyed, with the whole deck dropped into the river.

Russia has started importing gasoline from India. Maybe some of the same fuel they sold them previously.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 01 July 2026 - 09:56 PM, said:

Russia has started importing gasoline from India. Maybe some of the same fuel they sold them previously.

they sell oil to India at a discount, and then buy back the fuel refined from it with a markup.

brilliant! oh, wait.....

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 01 July 2026 - 11:11 PM

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 01 July 2026 - 11:11 PM, said:

they sell oil to India at a discount, and then buy back the fuel refined from it with a markup.

brilliant! oh, wait.....

Putin playing six-dimensional Connect 4 over here.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 02 July 2026 - 12:10 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 01 July 2026 - 11:11 PM, said:

they sell oil to India at a discount, and then buy back the fuel refined from it with a markup.

brilliant! oh, wait.....

Putin playing six-dimensional Connect 4 over here.

If they were refining it in Russia then Ukraine probably would have blown up the refineries by now.
Repeatedly.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 30 June 2026 - 10:09 PM, said:

Cause, on 30 June 2026 - 07:19 PM, said:

For the first time in a long age a Ukraine war Story actually hit my feed and it was the mayor of Moscow complaining about drone strikes.

Ukraine seems to now have the Tempo in this conflict. Belerus clearly doesn't want to step into it and Russia is desperate for something to change, so they can get back into the driver seat but haves no real options left. Putin signaling a willingness talk? Could we as Churchill might say finally be approaching 'the end of the beginning' of this conflict? There truly seems to be no path forward for Russia anymore or am I being overly optimistic?

There seems to be a strong likelihood of Russia enacting a mobilisation in the autumn to try to finish the war by seizing the rest of the Donbas, then returning the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv to Ukraine in a peace deal. They'll probably accept a partition of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Is there enough political will or economy left for another mobilisation. I thought they had been trying to avoid it like the plague. If Ukraine has finally forced their hand its another sign how bad things have deteriorated for them I guess but hopefully it cant happen but the world hasnt been working out like that the last few years.

[Werthead]

Cause, on 02 July 2026 - 05:23 PM, said:

Is there enough political will or economy left for another mobilisation. I thought they had been trying to avoid it like the plague. If Ukraine has finally forced their hand its another sign how bad things have deteriorated for them I guess but hopefully it cant happen but the world hasnt been working out like that the last few years.

No. But I think Putin is out of ideas. If he walks away with anything less than the full Donbas and retaining the land corridor and Crimea, I think he goes out of the window.

[Werthead]

10-12 years ago we had the Russian insane dashcam phenomenon, but the new hotness is videos of Russian citizens getting into fights at petrol stations to see whom will get the last fuel for their vehicles. An increasingly prolific genre. A miles-long queue to get fuel from a single petrol station in Chita has also been spotted from orbit. Fuel prices in Crimea are approaching four times the average US price.

Poland and Ukraine's spat has gotten a bit more serious, with Poland now saying it will retire and scrap its MiG-29 fighters rather than transfer them to Ukraine in return for drone technology. The real reason for the disagreement remains unclear, with the EU hoping to mediate a proper solution.

 Russia has apparently been modelling for a possible Ukrainian landing operation in Crimea.

Russian forces claimed that Kopani in Zaporizhzhia Oblast had been captured and a Russian flag planted. However, Ukrainian forces confirm they are still present in the settlement, and had even captured one of the Russian flag-planters. The flag itself has been removed.

Russian State Duma member Nina Ostanina has accused the government of concealing the scale of the fuel crisis, claiming nearly 30% of Russia’s oil refining capacity is offline. This appears to be roughly accurate, and may be significantly higher (at least in the short term).

CSIS now claiming that Russia has 450,000 KIA, close to the UK defence ministry estimate of 500,000. CSIS is also claiming a current 8:1 loss ratio between Russia and Ukraine, in Ukraine's favour.

Apparently Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi have held talks about a possible election and how it would be carried out, and if Zaluzhnyi would run (apparently he would). Ukraine believes an election could shore up support among the population and allies, but the government doesn't want a bitter and divisive election that Russia could manipulate.

Apparently Russia's elite Rubicon drone unit has suffered from a schism, with a rival outfit Varyag formed with 600 Rubicon veterans. The two units are now engaged in a bitter competition for supplies and personnel, to the detriment of the actual war effort.

[Tiste Simeon]

The US has seemingly warned that Russia wants to invade Poland to test Western resolve. Seems like a monumentally stupid idea to me, but then maybe Putin is getting even more desperate than we thought.

[Cause]

Tiste Simeon, on 03 July 2026 - 02:27 PM, said:

The US has seemingly warned that Russia wants to invade Poland to test Western resolve. Seems like a monumentally stupid idea to me, but then maybe Putin is getting even more desperate than we thought.

What? My understanding is that in its current state Poland alone would wipe Russia without NATO. There seems to be no reason to think NATO wouldn’t step up. Hell even if they just ramp up sanctions and capturing shadow fleet vessels Russia wouldn’t cope.

This has to be some kind of messaging by Russia I’m not understanding.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 03 July 2026 - 03:25 PM, said:

Tiste Simeon, on 03 July 2026 - 02:27 PM, said:

The US has seemingly warned that Russia wants to invade Poland to test Western resolve. Seems like a monumentally stupid idea to me, but then maybe Putin is getting even more desperate than we thought.

What? My understanding is that in its current state Poland alone would wipe Russia without NATO. There seems to be no reason to think NATO wouldn't step up. Hell even if they just ramp up sanctions and capturing shadow fleet vessels Russia wouldn't cope.

This has to be some kind of messaging by Russia I'm not understanding.

Quote

Critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones, with soldiers potentially crossing the border from Kaliningrad or Belarus

https://www.telegrap...solve-us-warns/

Quote

Officials close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki confirmed to Onet, a national news outlet and part of the same corporate network as The Telegraph, that his office had received those reports. [...] A fourth source with knowledge of security matters in Europe's northeastern Baltic region told the newspaper that the plans were under active discussion in Moscow. The Kremlin could well attempt to pin responsibility for any attack on Ukraine after the fact, the source added.

The Telegraph writes that NATO may potentially respond to any Russian aggression by directly attacking Kaliningrad. It notes that the exclave has been "cited as a potential target" by German military officials.

Vladimir Putin Plotting Fresh Attacks and Possible Ground Invasion of NATO Member Poland - The Daily Beast

[Tiste Simeon]

Yeah from what I understand Poland has been getting ready for war with Russia for decades or something so it does seem very foolish but at the same time I'm not sure any kind of sanity remains in Russia and I assume no-one dares to tell Putin that he's an idiot.

Either that or they all believe their own propaganda of Russian supremacy despite all evidence to the contrary.

[Werthead]

An absolute massacre of electrical substations in Crimea. Ukrainian drones blitzing dozens of the things in a relatively short space of time, shutting down electricity supplies to significant chunks of territory. Nine substations hit overnight alone. Crimea can only cope by introducing rolling blackouts and ordering restrictions on the use of washing machines and televisions.

Ukraine has also hit multiple electricity substations across Belgorod Oblast, including using HIMARS to blow on up (which might constitute overkill, but still).

Hvardiiske Airfield in Crimea, used to base large recon drones, has suffered significant damage to its drone shelters.

Russia has started selling types of gasoline infused with higher quantities of sulphur, meaning a significant risk of damaging engines.

Insider info claiming that the Ukraine-Poland spat started because Ukrainian engineers inspected Poland's MiG-29s and found most of them unflyable, requiring new landing gear and significant technology upgrades. Poland refused to fund the costs for this. Ukraine seems to have felt that Poland promised the aircraft were in a better state than is the case. The basic airframes seem to still be viable, so hopefully they can come to some arrangement.

A Danish company has unveiled Blue Dragon, a sea-based autonomous launch system designed to loiter off the coast and launch an array of smaller aerial and sea drones. Ukraine is considering purchasing the system to intercept Shahed drones over the Black Sea, specifically for the defence of Odesa.

Dubna, Moscow Oblast apparently has multiple queues, with hundreds of vehicles in each, trying to buy fuel. The Crimean Bridge queue has reached 7.5 km as of earlier today. Novorossiysk has sent out an alert saying it is out of gasoline, and only has small amounts of diesel available.

Ukraine has indicted Gerasimov for war crimes, accusing him of orchestrating Russia's terror attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine and Germany are working together to encourage Ukrainian emigrants of fighting age to return to Ukraine. Apparently Ukraine is seeking to recruit to its drone forces, located at a greater distance from the front line, to encourage voluntary returns.

Several intelligence agencies claiming that Russia may be preparing a false flag operation on the Polish border to test NATO resolve.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 03 July 2026 - 04:40 PM, said:

Russia has started selling types of gasoline infused with higher quantities of sulphur, meaning a significant risk of damaging engines.

If it is above basically trace level it is a death sentence for any modern car over time and even car's from the 90's can be damaged by it.

Werthead, on 03 July 2026 - 04:40 PM, said:

Several intelligence agencies claiming that Russia may be preparing a false flag operation on the Polish border to test NATO resolve.

Bad idea and probably just wishful thinking from people who benefit from increased military spending but if true...Poland will react probably pretty violently, like very very violently. Let's face it as well there is no way Russia can handle another conflict.

This post has been edited by Chance: 03 July 2026 - 05:43 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Chance, on 03 July 2026 - 05:32 PM, said:

Werthead, on 03 July 2026 - 04:40 PM, said:

Several intelligence agencies claiming that Russia may be preparing a false flag operation on the Polish border to test NATO resolve.

Bad idea and probably just wishful thinking from people who benefit from increased military spending but if true...Poland will react probably pretty violently, like very very violently. Let's face it as well there is no way Russia can handle another conflict.

Could the response be sufficient to end the war? (If Putin doesn't insist on being (or isn't allowed to be) insanely obstinate...)

[Chance]

Azath Vitr (D, on 03 July 2026 - 06:04 PM, said:

Chance, on 03 July 2026 - 05:32 PM, said:

Werthead, on 03 July 2026 - 04:40 PM, said:

Several intelligence agencies claiming that Russia may be preparing a false flag operation on the Polish border to test NATO resolve.

Bad idea and probably just wishful thinking from people who benefit from increased military spending but if true...Poland will react probably pretty violently, like very very violently. Let's face it as well there is no way Russia can handle another conflict.

Could the response be sufficient to end the war? (If Putin doesn't insist on being (or isn't allowed to be) insanely obstinate...)

Might make it faster recently however Ukraine doesn't seem to need much direct help. Regardless Putin is practically facing two choices. Some form of acceptable surrender (that can be sold as a win at home) or escalation and the only viable escalation after this autumns mobilization is nukes. Most likely seems that he will simply take no real action, just continue for as long as possible and attempt to outlast Ukraine.

This post has been edited by Chance: 03 July 2026 - 06:21 PM

[the broken]

Foreign intelligence having advance notice of your false flag operation seems like a bad sign.

Honestly, it doesn't necessarily mean much to have people discussing crazy plans, staff planners discuss those things all the time.

[Werthead]

Nice, Ukraine has crippled two Tu-142 strategic bombers at Taganrog, including blowing one of the aircraft's wings off.

Ukraine has also hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal again, causing significant damage and, once again, black smoke in the sky over the city. Ukraine assesses that up to 42% of Russia's total oil output was degraded at one moment in the last month, though Russia has since managed to repair some capacity. But the scale of Ukraine's attacks is now immense, with at least over 100 drone launches simultaneously for around a month in a row, some nights more than 300. Russia has amass forces for larger strikes, but Ukraine is apparently now targeting eclipsing Russia's drone strike capacity in total, not even per capita.

[Werthead]

The Russian oil refinery at Omsk, 2500km from Ukraine and the last major refinery not to be hit before today, has taken a major drone hit. Huge explosions and vast amounts of smoke pouring into the sky. Both Russian and Ukrainian commentators have said this is major step forwards and "nowhere is safe." Russia even deployed an Su-57 to intercept incoming ordinance, but it was unable to engage the drones.

A rather wild claim but it appears one Russian unit on the front became combat-incapable after literally starving. Ukraine interdicted all drone resupplies, including food, for weeks on end and the Russian unit ceased to be capable of fighting before being neutralised, having refused to surrender.

Eight Russian shadow fleet tankers were hit overnight in a flurry of hits on the Sea of Azov ports and on the Black Sea.

Ukraine has revealed it conducted "Operation Ashan" in 2025, using surveillance to pinpoint the locations of Russian artillery pieces which Russia had positioned in hidden locations and outside counter-battery range. Over 800 artillery pieces, ammunition dumps and support vehicles were destroyed in two days. A later follow-up operation destroyed another 300 pieces of equipment.

Ukraine has hit the 26th Missile Brigade forward positioning base in Luga, possibly destroyed Iskander ballistic missiles and launch systems.

Ukraine is working with foreign allies to field systems capable of neutralising Russian airfields permanently.

Ukraine has begun hitting road bridges and rail bridges in Belgorod Oblast. Previously they'd hit bridges on areas that were heavily used by the military but now they're going after others to strangle economic movement in the oblast. Most targeting is happening at night to avoid civilian casualties.

Omsk Refinery has gone offline fully. The hit to their systems seems to have reduced output by 75% and they're scrambling to repair. Omsk is Russia's largest refinery so this would be a massive hit to Russian oil output.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 July 2026 - 11:14 PM

[Mentalist]

More refinery hits- Saratov and Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan.

SBU has been hitting pumping stations- one in Tatarstan, as well as the main gas compressor pumps for the "Blue Stream" pipe towards Turkiye.

It seems we've hit critical mass, since the orcs are banning diesel exports.

Ukrainian Air Force reports downing a Su-35. Z-heads are whining that this is the first plane that was taken down by a wing of F-16s. We could be seeing the start of the process to deny them the airspace to lob glide bombs- which could be a game-changer for the frontlines.

Apparently, in Ankara trump greenlit UA to obtain license to produce Patriot missiles domestically. HUGE, if not just an improv remark.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 July 2026 - 06:20 PM

[Werthead]

Germany has just given up on exploring giving Taurus to Ukraine. Instead it is co-developing Kryla and Ruta-2 missiles for Ukraine, the first with a range of 800km and the latter of 700km. Ukraine and other European nations are supporting the programme, with the first missiles expected to be delivered later this year.

Ukraine has liberated Novokhatske, Donetsk, east of Zelenyi Hai, almost exactly a year after Russia captured it.

Ukraine has shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter using a Patriot battery. The aircraft was lured forwards by three Ukrainian aircraft apparently "straying" into the Russian fighter's engagement zone and then retreating towards the Patriot. The Russians took the bait.

Crimea's harvest is under threat, with Crimean farmers no longer able to operate heavy farming equipment due to fuel shortages.

Russia has started a diesel export ban, as all diesel production is required for inside Russia.

The USA has agreed to provide Ukraine a licence to start domestic production of Patriot missiles. Trump confirmed that his relationship with Zelensky has improved, and was amused when Zelensky said he couldn't go to Moscow for peace talks due to there being too many dangerous Ukrainian drones around. Expect Putin to attempt some sort of propaganda exercise soon.

In Novorossiysk, angry drivers halted a fuel tanker on the road and demanded its fuel be given over to the waiting motorists. In Volgograd, Russian drivers are camping out at petrol stations to wait for gasoline.

Ukraine has destroyed the Cherkasy Cherkasy oil pumping station in Bashkortostan, 1500km from the border. Civilians watched nonplussed as a Ukrainian drone lazily maneuvered above a terminal in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan and then dive-bombed the facility.

Erdogan has confirmed that Turkey is continuing to attempt mediation efforts, but Putin does not seem interested. Turkey is stepping up industrial support for Ukraine in return for drone expertise.

Ukraine destroyed over 600 supply trucks and tanker trucks in the occupied territories in June. For the first week of July alone they destroyed over 250. They seem to be hoping to hit 1,000 destroyed vehicles this month, and more in every subsequent months. This is a major problem for Russia.

Russian civilians queuing at a petrol station outside a fuel depot outside Mikhailovsk had the disquieting experience of watching a Ukrainian drone fly right into the refinery and explode, perhaps illustrating why there are petrol shortages.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 09 July 2026 - 09:05 AM