[Mentalist]

Ukraine is field-testing the Flamingoes again.

They seem to have hit the Progress factory in Cheboksary. This was hit by drones before, but this time it seems the missiles got there.

There's also missile warnings for Kurgan, Tyumen' Oblast and Khanty-Mansy Autonomius district- Yugra. That's the heartland of the orcs' Western Siberian oil fields. Damaging pipeline infrastructure here could be insanely painful.

UAF did send a small swarm towards Moscow earlier, trying to keep all the anti-air zeroed in on Moscow itself.

Putler unilaterally declared a ceasefire for May 8-9th, and promised to hit Kyiv "like never before" if Ukraine violates it.

Zelesnky responded by saying, "we are willing to enact silence regime on the 6th, but we will mirror any enemy actions taken after this". So basically he's forcing the responsibility onto putler.

[Werthead]

Some interesting hard data on the front. Ukraine's 37th Marine Brigade near Oleksandrivka repulsed dozens of attacks from Russian forces. 274 Russian soldiers with killed or wounded, three tanks, three artillery systems, one IFV and sixteen other vehicles, along with 135 drones, were destroyed. In return, Russia advanced exactly zero point zero kilometres in a month.

This is a change in the tide, where a previous sacrifice of resources a year or two ago would have seen Russia achieve similar losses for advancing a few dozen or hundred metres at least.

Ukraine has driven Russian forces back 8km down the bank of the Dnipro and now seem poised to fully recapture Prymorske. Russia has been curiously inept on this front given it's importance to their overall objectives, including bringing Zaporizhzhia city within tube artillery range (which they're currently going in the wrong direction to achieve).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 May 2026 - 11:38 PM

[Mentalist]

Instead, the orcs started lobbing glide bombs at major cities again. Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhya; Over 20 civilians killed in the past 2 days.

Ukraine concluded that Moscow violated the proposed silence period; So they don't consider themselves bound to any sort of ceasefire in the upcoming days.

HUR also notes that the orcs are stockpiling cruise missiles for massive strikes on the 9th and 10th. This could be their attempt to destroy Ukraine's water/sewage infrastructure.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 06 May 2026 - 03:18 PM

[Werthead]

Some reports that Germany is considering buying Flamingo know-how from Ukraine to then mass-produce their own equivalent for sale across Europe, and possibly to augment Ukrainian production.

Russian anti-air missile production seems to have dropped from previous years, forcing Russia to make harder decisions about which incoming Ukrainian munitions to try to intercept. Apparently the situation in Crimea is so bad that Sevastopol Air Defence Command made a public plea for new missile stocks. One unconfirmed report is that, at least in some areas, Russian Buk launchers only have 1-2 missiles for 6 batteries.

A third strike on the Perm refinery, pretty heavy damage.

Ukraine has hit and damaged a Karakursk-class missile destroyer in the Caspian Sea, near Dagestan.

Reports of furious close-quarters combat on the Sumy front, with Russian soldiers using an underground pipe to emerge in the rear of the Ukrainian 71st Brigade. Fortunately, the Ukrainians detected the incursion and reportedly killed 44 Russian soldiers in less than half an hour of intense combat.

The US has removed Ukraine from the list of countries facing arms import restrictions.

Drones entered Latvian airspace, forcing Latvia to scramble defensive aircraft. Some of the drones subsequently left Latvian airspace, but at least two fell out of the sky near Rezekne, damaging an empty oil tank.

Ukraine has switched to only using one Patriot interceptor per incoming Russian cruise missile versus two, to preserve dwindling stocks.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 May 2026 - 05:48 PM

[Mentalist]

Fresh strikes on Perm'- both the pumping station and the refinery are on fire again.

UAF hit yet another missile ship that's capable of launching kalibr missiles. This time, on the Caspian Sea. So that's 4 seas now (Black, Azov, Caspian and Baltic). oh, and there was that saboteur that set a Northern Fleet ship on fire.

Moscow airports are still on lockdown, b/c drone alerts are ongoing. I wonder if UAF can keep this steady warnings long enough to disrupt any "dignitaries" that were supposed to show up on Saturday?

Quite frankly, I'd rather just have ongoing sirens during the parade, without any actual drone strikes.

[Mentalist]

So trump announced that he mediated a ceasifire from May 9th to 11th, and there'll be a 1000 for 1000 prisoner swap.


Zelensky immediately trolled the Kremlin by issuing a formal order that the area of the Red Square (corner coordinates attached) be excluded from the war planning of the UAF for the next 3 days, effective the starting hour of the parade.

In effect, he is making a proclamation that "he gives approval for the May 9th parade"

At the same time, the expectation is that on the 12th the orcs will lob a massive drone & missile barrage on UA.

But at least the weekend's supposed to be pretty tame.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces have crossed the border back into Donetsk oblast on another part of the line, attacking in the Zeleniy Gai - Zirka direction.

ISW has confirmed multiple reports that Ukraine is conducting a long-range interdiction programme along the T-0509 highway linking Mariupol to Donetsk City. Ukrainian drones are flying well over 100 km to impact convoys and individual vehicles on the highway, destroying resupply vehicles, troop carriers and fuel tankers. This kind of drone interdiction operation is usually conducted on roads much, much closer to the front and the Russians don't seem to entirely know how to stop them, especially as the drones can attack from difference directions (possibly including overflying to the Sea of Azov and then doubling back).

ISW also assesses that ground lines of communication between Russian supply and reinforcement hubs and the front are the worst they've been since the war started. Russian forces can now take several days to simply get to the front, let alone start infiltrating beyond it into Ukrainian territory, and are exhausted and demoralised by the fear of drone strikes, actual drone strikes and enemy artillery before they even fire a shot in anger. Vast amounts of Russian equipment is simply destroyed without seeing use. Not just the ISW, but multiple sources show that the Russian Spring/Summer offensive of 2026, the fifth of the war, is the most shambolic, badly-supported, barely-reinforced and least effective they've seen. It's possible combat effectiveness will improve as more troops, anti-drone measures and resupplies arrive, but the Russians really seem to have fundamental problems at the moment.

Whether this can extend to Ukraine breaking the Russian lines and starting to retake territory in short order, as some of the more unrealistically pro-Ukrainian sources have suggested, is another matter. ISW does believe that this will require close coordination between Ukrainian ground forces and drone units, which we have started to see in Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 10 May 2026 - 08:55 PM

[Mentalist]

I made this estimate in the first few months of the war, and I stick by it.

The momentum will inexorably shift to Ukraine once enemy casualties become steady over 2k/day.

If Magyar & Fedorov can make this happen, then Ukraine will be able to retake the Azov seaboard, and probably most of the core Donbas cities (from Alchevs'k to Mariupol, across Horlivka, Yenakiyeve and Donets'k). Likely Luhans'k Oblast N of the Donets' river as well.

But this is a big ask.

[Werthead]

It is doable. Ukraine now has shown the ability to cut Crimea off from resupply, it can interdict most of the land bridge. They're also showing more success in anti-drone operations (they destroyed a forward drone base near the Dnipro in Kherson today). If Ukraine can keep up the pressure on the main highways, start to retake more ground more successfully with lighter casualties, then Russia's ability to resist that on the ground basically ceases to exist. Once the momentum goes, you could then have a stampede operation at least among Russian civilians, probably best achieved in Crimea, where there's already been several mini-panics and civilians fleeing back to mainland Russia. Mariupol is also a good target for that, Russian residents there are already in arms about the sheer number of Ukrainian drones overhead.

The things standing in the way of that are Trump and Putin doing something insane if he believes he's on the way out. Also the possibility of difficult elections in Europe putting more pro-Putin or Putin-neutral figures into power.

ETA: Now seeing reports that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces back down the Dnipro from their previous positions (though the scale seems unclear) and have now retaken a larger part of Chasiv Yar. Again. I think we just had the three-year anniversary of the first Russian ground assault on the town, making it the longest-contested settlement of the conflict (I think).

Also OSINT sources saying with increased confidence that Russia has cleared 400,000 dead, probably significantly more. One saying 500,000, but that seems unsupported for now (though by the end of this year, entirely possible).

Rybar seems to be saying "game over" as well, which has sent shockwaves through the Russian OSINT fanbase. Rybar claims that Russia has ordered tanks to no longer take part in frontal assaults and has not prioritised the anti-drone weapons they urgently need.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 May 2026 - 07:29 PM

[Cause]

The momentum has already shifted.

Only in 2026 did Russia need cover to hold their victory parade. The irony is palpable. The move all but signals they cant maintain the war at previous levels and they weren’t winning then. How can they possibly sell that victory is achievable now?

How much longer this drags out who knows but the only choices seem to be permanent stalemate or permanent ceasefire.

[Werthead]

Ukraine's success in western Zaporizhzhia seems to be down to the 153rd Mechanised Brigade and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, whilst HUR special forces units (Tymur and the International Legion) have reinforced.

The Russians have deployed the reserve regiments of the 7th Air Assault Division, alongside the 108th and 247th Air Assault Regiments. The 299th Airborne has also been deployed. These units have so far failed to halt the Ukrainian offensive.

In addition, the Russians had the 7th, 104th and 98th VDV Divisions and part of the 11th VDV Brigade in the area. These appear to have been mauled heavily in combat, despite being "elite" units. They have little or no answer for Ukrainian drone attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia appears to have lot an entire infantry column which was walking from Bakhmut to reinforce Chasiv Yar. Russian troops having to walk crazy distances to the front is now commonplace, but them bunching together in one group easily dispatched by a few drones is rare. Possibly new recruits who didn't know any better.

Ukrainian forces have advanced into Hrekivka. This is extremely entertaining because this is inside Luhansk Oblast, the Ukrainians had to cross the border from Kharkiv Oblast to do it.

As a result of this, Russia no longer controls 100% of any of the oblasts it has been contesting since 2022.

To be clear, this is like 0.01% of the oblast, but it is amusing.

Meanwhile, a building on the Kremlin grounds has burst into flames.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 12 May 2026 - 09:43 PM

[Werthead]

Unhinged rumour that Putin was considering a ceasefire but was talked out of it by commanders claiming they can capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast before the end of the year. Take that with a pinch of salt.

American-made Hornet drones flying unopposed over Donetsk City, diving down between buildings to destroy Russian military vehicles and targets of opportunity. We've seen a lot of anger about this happening in Mariupol, but as Donetsk is much bigger and closer to the front, the anger seems a lot more widespread.

Ukraine is targeting several bottleneck pumping stations which transfer oil from the big fields in the east to European Russia. If Ukraine can destroy these, Russia's oil problems get much, much worse.

Analysis of the interdiction of the Mariupol-Donetsk highway suggests 1-in-20 Russian fuel tankers or transportation vehicles is destroyed per trip. These vehicles have to make hundreds of trips per month to help keep not just the military supply lines open, but also helping provide Donetsk City itself with fuel and to keep the lights on. Obviously that ratio can quickly build up so no trucks are getting through at all, putting this entire area, deep behind the front, under siege.

Ukraine has deployed a ground-level drone which can carry 300kg of high explosive. During one operation it simply drove inside a building occupied by eight Russian soldiers and detonated, destroying the entire building. If the Russians had engaged it at close range, the same outcome. Ukraine is apparently scaling these to be used on front line fortifications.

[Mentalist]

A lot of strikes last night. Taman' port, Astrakhan gas processing plant, Yaroslavl' refinery, and a pumping station in Bashkortostan.

The "Kremlin fire" in Moscow wasn't in the actual Kremlin, but in the Izmaylovo shopping/entertainment center that's stylized in "old Russian" style.

The orcs have lobbed about 800 drones since last night. About 35 got through. There's over a dozen civilians killed, a lot more wounded.

Now we're getting missile warnings. Ugh

[Werthead]

Russian bloggers now saying that Ukraine has "fire control" over most of the length of the M-14 highway, the main road linking Crimea to Russia proper via the land corridor. Supplies and reinforcements are starting to find it as hard to get to Crimea this way as if they were trying to advance at the front, leading to concerns that forces in Crimea can no longer be sustained.

One report saying, "we can defend Crimea or we can defend Russia, we can't do both."

The bridges are still up but they cannot handle all of the resupply needs by themselves, especially since Ukraine sank several of the cargo ferries as well.

[Werthead]

Investigations have indicated that a 37-year-old Russian IT worker, Alexander Okunev, set himself on fire next to Kaliningrad's WWII Soviet victory memorial on the three-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. He wrote a memo calling for peace throughout the world and an end to the war in Ukraine. The authorities quickly covered up the incident but it has now come to light.

Analysts looking at the supply situation to Crimea, indicating it was dire before the recent interdiction but now it is becoming desperate. One slither of hope for the Russians is that the M-14 is very long and Ukraine can't keep the whole length under constant attack, and there are other countryside roads smaller vehicles can take to (not much help for heavy military equipment, obviously). So it's not quite fully closed off yet. Once it is, a large-scale Russian military presence in Crimea becomes difficult to sustain and the troops in the land bridge, particularly in Kherson Oblast, might start seeing supply problems.

Secretary of the Army Driscoll, a close friend and ally of JD Vance, has spent some time in Ukraine and seems to have gone from a Ukraine-sceptic to believer. He was positively gushing about Ukraine's realtime command-and-control software, rating it as superior to anything the USA has, and remarkable for integrating so much kit from different countries into one cohesive framework. He also highly rates Ukraine's drone expertise.

Ukrainian forces operating south-east of Prymorske appear to be in position to help the ongoing battle for Stepnohirsk. This section of the front is interesting as it is hard against the Dnipro, meaning they don't have to worry as much about their right flank. The Ukrainian target here is clearly the larger town of Kamyanske but it's going to be a hard fight back into it.

Confirmation that another commander in charge of the Bucha Massacre has been identified and eliminated. Dmitriy Issayev was shot in the courtyard of his apartment block in Kaluga on May 7th.

Ukraine seems to have sourced Chinese FN-16 MANPADS from somewhere, as some Ukrainian AA units on the front have recently been photographed with them.

Hungary has filed a protest against the Russian government for targeting the western city of Zakarpattia in recent strikes, where a large Hungarian minority lives. 

Russia has placed extensive anti-drone defences around its submarine pens on the Kamchatka Peninsula, which is over 7400km from Ukraine.

[Mentalist]

After a whole day of drone strikes yesterday, the orcs lobbed a bunch of missiles. There was an impact in Kyiv, collapsing a 9-floor residential building. 21 people dead so far.

Western analysts are sounding insanely upbeat about how UAF stabilized the frontline, but the orcs continue trying to infiltrate into new cities along the frontline. They are gradually massing in outskirts of Konstyantynivka, and there are also advances towards Slov'yansk, as well as W of Hulyaipole towards Orikhiv.

Successful middle-strike campaign to interdict enemy logistics can obviously shape the conditions for a successful offensive (see: HIMARSing of the bridges into R Bank Kherson Oblast, and the eventual orc retreat, roughly 3.5 months later), but it's likely premature to call for a turning point in the S just yet.

Though UAF drones DID hit a cargo ship that moored into Berdyans'k port today, which is a nice indication that supply via the sea isn't exactly viable either.

And we're getting reports about UA's response strike. Ryazan' refinery's on fire again, complete with oil rain.
This is only 200 km SW of Moscow, in the neighbouring Oblast'

Worth noting the orcs mostly used air-launched cruise missiles yesterday, so they probably still have Kalibrs and various ballistic stuff stockpiled for another barrage.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Today, 03:59 AM