[Cause]

Azath Vitr (D, on 18 May 2026 - 12:48 PM, said:

Russia attacked a Chinese ship one day before Putin's scheduled visit to Beijing...

Russian drone hits Chinese ship off Ukraine before Putin visits Xi Jinping | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

I think they'll have him outnumbered.

Envisioning a mob of humanoid robots tearing Putin to shreds of flesh and bone. With kung fu...

Well, we can pray.

My read on China is they can choose whether to care or not. If partnering with Russia remains in their interest for china it’s a non matter. One advantage of a being a one party president for life government is they can see and take the long view

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces now seem to control half or more of Stepnohirsk, with Russian forces retreating into the southern urban part of the town.

Recapturing Stepnohirsk would be a significant tactical victory, with larger strategic possibilities for a larger southward offensive. Heavier Russian reinforcements are arriving in that area but have so far not been effective.

[Werthead]

Russian channels claiming that Ukraine has control of the north and west of Stepnohirsk, gloomy about Russia holding the settlement. They think Prymorske will go as well and Russia may not have good options to stop them north of Kamyanske. Taking Kamyanske will be the really decisive battle in this sector and determine if this is a localised counter-attack or a more serious counter-offensive that could imperil the land corridor.

At the same time the land corridor has been under effective Ukrainian interdiction for a week, with at least 10% of military and supply movements on the Mariupol - Donetsk City highway being destroyed. Somewhat less on the main land corridor rail and road route, but starting to risk. The "Crimea under siege" narrative is really starting to play.

There's a real argument in Russian Telegram-land, as different bloggers argue about Kupyansk. Whilst everyone agrees Russia has made some advances back towards Kupyansk, maps showing them back in control of the northern suburbs are being argued over, with several of the more reliable ones claiming that Russian forces have not reached Kupyansk itself beyond some recon units. The reporting on this front seems to have become highly propagandised after Gerasimov's batshit insane claims of Russian forces already being miles to the west of Kupyansk to Putin were made public.

Ukrainian intelligence has assessed that Russia is putting significant pressure on Belarus to allow Russian ground forces to invade Ukraine from Russian soil (again). Lukashenko has been resisting such overtures, but Russian military planners have already created operational plans for offensive action from Belarusian soil, perhaps quite far west to open an unexpected front. Ukraine believes Belarus has not committed to such an operation, but they are wavering more than they have in the past.

Russia has claimed that some Ukrainian drones used in operations against Russian ports on the Baltic were launched from Latvia. The Latvian government has denied such claims.

Allegedly Xi Jinping told Trump that Putin either regrets, or soon will, invading Ukraine.

Russian State Duma deputy Renat Suleymanov has floated the idea of ending the war in Ukraine. He believes that Russia cannot sustain a 40% defence budget and this will cause massive economic problems in Russia that might negate even a major victory on the battlefield, and reintegrating hundreds of thousands of PTSD-suffering troops is going to be a massive challenge.

[Garak]

Meanwhile over here we're seeing some slightly worrying stuff. Our politicians are arguing about forming a new government. They also put forward a motion to get rid of the law that criminalises antisemitism and Legionary symbols and speech (they were our fascists during WW2). And on social media fascist groups are starting to make noise (putting up insane manifestos and even threats against a left leaning political party) and there has been some violence towards foreign delivery drivers.

It's nothing much so far but it's not a good sign. Especially since the latest austerity measures have people grumbling and AUR (a far right party) has gained a lot of support. For what I don't know, they haven't actually done anything to help anyone.

[Macros]

No far right party helps anyone.
The stir up hate and prey on ill founded fears.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has just launched a massive, multi-hundred drone strike on Russia. Targets unclear but Crimea is taking a hammering, as is the coast of the land corridor. Ukrainian drones overflying Rostov, Volgograd, Saratov, Voronezh Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Moscow, Ryazan, Smolensk and Vladimir. Ukrainian cruise missiles reported over Bryansk and Kaluga, possibly headed for Moscow.

Last night's drone raids targeted St. Petersburg Airport, which saw dozens of flights divert to Moscow.

Apparently Ukraine plans to deploy 50,000 ground-combat robots in 2026, a force larger than some allied ground armies.

Sweden is purchasing four new destroyers from France to bolster its defence in the Baltic.

Remarkable scenes at the UN, with Russia threatening Estonia and the US representative confirming that the USA will defend its NATO allies, including the Baltics.

[Mentalist]

According to Reuters, UAF managed to shut down most of the refining in the NW and Central Federal District. Kirishy, Ryazan and Moscow refineries are closed, Yaroslavl' down to quarter capacity, and Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod) was also hit last night, but results are unclear.


If they can shut down the Volga cluster (Volgograd, Saratov, Samara, Novokuybyshev) the same way, simultaneously, this could actually lead to something. There are still facilities in Tatrstan and Bashkortostan, of course, but it would still hurt. A lot.

Meanwhile, Vilnuis had its first air raid alerts due to drone threat. Yesterday, Estonians shot down a drone that's been diverted by the muscovite EW. Earlier, Latvians failed to do so, a drone crashed in a forest. There's big govermental shakeups there, the MoD resigned, and situation's messy with the upcoming elections.

The orcs are definitely stepping up the rhetoric regarding the Baltics being an imminent threat; however, we aren't seeing an actual buildup you'd expect if they were going to try something dumb.

I guess we might see it in autumn when they do their Zapad exercises in Belarus. But the situation on the frontlines could shift over the summer. Maybe. Unless the orcs manage to adapt to UA's new tactics, if UAF starts getting sloppy and complacent, as they sometimes tended to.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 21 May 2026 - 06:06 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

I'm honestly surprised they have enough manpower and equipment to start threatening other countries.

[the broken]

What is the benefit of threatening Estonia? It doesn't make sense.

This post has been edited by the broken: 21 May 2026 - 01:21 PM

[Garak]

Estonia has a city with a majority russian speaking population. They believe they can pull a "we just want to reunited with our brothers" move and show NATO is unwilling to engage them and thus impotent (this would of course mean their claims that NATO is a threat are baseless but let's not let logic stop anyone).

Also Romania might loose the money to upgrade our military because I think we have a deadline of 31 May to have contracts ready and we currently don't have a government.

[Cause]

Garak, on 21 May 2026 - 02:26 PM, said:

Estonia has a city with a majority russian speaking population. They believe they can pull a "we just want to reunited with our brothers" move and show NATO is unwilling to engage them and thus impotent (this would of course mean their claims that NATO is a threat are baseless but let's not let logic stop anyone).

Also Romania might loose the money to upgrade our military because I think we have a deadline of 31 May to have contracts ready and we currently don't have a government.

Lose the money? From where? Isnt it yours

[Chance]

Garak, on 21 May 2026 - 02:26 PM, said:

Estonia has a city with a majority russian speaking population. They believe they can pull a "we just want to reunited with our brothers" move and show NATO is unwilling to engage them and thus impotent (this would of course mean their claims that NATO is a threat are baseless but let's not let logic stop anyone).

If the Russian leaders believe that they are even more terminally stupid than we already believes, the response might not be instant everyone presses declare total war button but the EU NATO states can heap a lot of misery on Moskov it hasn't already done. Just expelling all Russian citizen and sizing all Russian owned assets in the EU while blocking the straight of denmark would be a fun start and stuff they maybe should have done already if you ask me.

This post has been edited by Chance: 21 May 2026 - 07:33 PM

[Garak]

Cause, on 21 May 2026 - 06:47 PM, said:

Garak, on 21 May 2026 - 02:26 PM, said:

Estonia has a city with a majority russian speaking population. They believe they can pull a "we just want to reunited with our brothers" move and show NATO is unwilling to engage them and thus impotent (this would of course mean their claims that NATO is a threat are baseless but let's not let logic stop anyone).

Also Romania might loose the money to upgrade our military because I think we have a deadline of 31 May to have contracts ready and we currently don't have a government.

Lose the money? From where? Isnt it yours

The SAFE program is money from the EU.

[Werthead]

Russian sources are now saying the situation in Zaporizhzhia is considerably worse (for them) than previously reported. The Russian commanders on this sector had amassed a considerable reserve force of "four divisions" but sent them into battle directly with inadequate drone, artillery or air cover and they got absolutely smashed. This wasn't reported properly, so commanders in Moscow believed that fully intact units were available for defence when they had effectively ceased to exist. Around 10,000 Russians have been killed, critically wounded or captured on this front alone.

Mala Tokmachka, on the eastern end of this front, appears to have fallen or at least been absorbed fully into the grey zone. Ukrainian forces have pushed further south of Orikhiv, their major reinforcement node in that sector, but the main effort is further west along the banks of the Dnipro. The Russians are really looking bad here, some Ukrainian units have penetrated to Stepove and multiple units may have bypassed Stepnohirsk to attack Plavni and recon Kamyanske itself. Kamyanske, at the junction of the Yanchekrak and Dnipro, remains the big prize.

ISW's analysis is that Ukraine has successfully liberated significant territory in western and eastern Zaporizhzhia, some parts of occupied Kharkiv Oblast, and made progress in Sumy Oblast, as well as conducted several limited-but-effective counterattacks against the main Russian assault on the Donetsk front. These have knocked the Russians off-balance and in some cases forced the relocation of units urgently needed in Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia to stop that front's complete collapse. This in turn has weakened the offensive in Donetsk. Ukraine has also reached the strategic mass necessary to extend its drone campaign to a simultaneously intense assault against Russian forces on the front, logistics in the rear and Russian positions in the deep rear (particularly the land corridor), forcing Russian units out to some considerable distance from the front to act as if they are on or near the front, in terms of travelling at night or on foot, as vehicles attract swarms of drones. This has coincided with Russian losses significantly outnumbering recruitment for at least three to four months in a row. Ukraine may have also now undertaken two to three days in a row where Ukrainian attacks along the front outnumbered Russian attacks.

Russia is trying to reassert the tactical initiative, particularly in Kupyansk, but with limited success; on 19 May it was assessed that Ukrainian forces had repulsed all remaining Russian forces from the urban area, forcing Russian forces to regroup.

Russian channels are also fuming over Putin's failure to secure the Power of Siberian 2 pipeline agreement whilst in China.

Another significant Ukrainian drone attack on Russia, with 300+ drones and missiles reported in the air. This is the third attack of such a size in a week.

Lukashenko has offered to travel to Ukraine to talk to Zelensky. The offer got a lukewarm reception.

Sweden and Ukraine are intensifying preparations for the sale of Gripens to Kyiv.

A Pantsir air defence system in Crimea was destroyed, which is not unusual, but the destruction caused significant collateral damage, with around 100 Russians killed or wounded in the process.

Greece and Ukraine are trying to resolve tensions that sprung up after a Ukrainian unmanned sea drone apparently malfunctioned and ended up in Greek waters. Several Mediterranean powers are uneasy about Ukraine launching aerial and sea-based attacks on Russian targets in the Mediterranean.

Ukraine has begun field-tests of the Trident laser defence system. The weapon can destroy Shaheds at a distance of 5km with expending any kind of ammunition.

Every single refinery in central Russia has shut down or significantly cut output after a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian oil production in this area is at least 25% down in capacity.

The US is continuing plans to pull 5,000 troops out of Germany, but apparently the same number may be stationed in Poland instead.

[Werthead]

Russian authorities have banned civilian vehicles from using the Donetsk-Mariupol highway, due to the overwhelming presence and fire control from Ukrainian drones.

[Mentalist]

Major hit on Novorossiysk again. They hit the pumping/storage station outside the city, the oil port, as well as several ships again.

simultaneously, UAF struck the Metafrax chemical plant in Perm' Krai. To make sure people understand: Perm is upstream of the Kama (the big Volga tributary), and is basically Northern Urals (although formally it's still part of the Volga federal district)

DeepState finally updated its map to remove the red blotch in the centre of Kup'yans'k. Although the orcs are still trying to infiltrate the L bank outskirts from the N, and pushing into R bank from the E, the city is essentially cleared.


Tentative agreement's been announced to evacuate the remaining 6k people from the riverfront settlements in occupied kherson oblast'- Oleshky, Hola Prystan and Old and New Zbur'yivkas were all essentially cut off from amenities and regular food supplies due to being frontline cities; so Ukraine is arranging with the IRC to have them evacuated, and then transferred to Ukraine. Hopefully this happens, and the orcs don't "detain" the civilians along the way.

Talks are also happening on next phase of the Victory Day prisoner swap arrangement.

Z-heads are whining that UAF is gradually regaining initiative in the S. UAF observation posts were spotted S of Mala Tokmachka- and this complicates the orcs' attempts to push into the long (almost 10 km across) settlement that guards the SE approaches towards Orikhiv. Ukrainian drones are also laying mines on roads approaching Enerhodar, and other notable cities. I don't expect an major assault attempts unless the orc forces are completely attrited here, but so far the momentum's slightly positive.

[Werthead]

Russia has hit Ukraine for the third time with an Oreshnik missile, with heavy damage to Kyiv. One person was killed but over a hundred injured, some seriously. However, some reports that the Oreshnik actually hit an airfield outside the city, with standard drones and missiles (many shot down) instead directed at the capital. Some Russian bloggers irate, saying that Russia can fire an Oreshnik once every six months at a cost of $1.2 billion or they could just build some more and better short range drones and try to close the gap that Ukaine is currently widening.

The Albanian ambassador to Ukraine was apparently in the area of Kyiv hit by Russian drones. Albania has summoned the Russian ambassador.

Meanwhile, Russian war bloggers now gloomily predicting the fall of Kamyanske and the turning the west flank on the SW Zaporizhzhia front. The Russian reinforcements that were assigned to this sector have been neutralised already, so Russia now has to pull in units from other fronts where they are urgently needed, or start thinking about giving ground, and this might be the single most dangerous sector of the front to do that (compared to Russia giving up its Kharkiv and Sumy toeholds altogether, which would make far more sense), given the threat to the land bridge.

Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian units reaching Zelene, on the eastern Zaporizhzhia front. This would put Ukrainian forces just NW of Huliaipole. The rest of this front is chaotic and Russia has made some minor gains to the SW, so interesting to see if Ukraine can turn back the Russian advances here. That would further secure Orikhiv, though predicting the recapture of Huliaipole, a major settlement at least by this region's standards, is a bit more optimistic.

The Akhmat (Chechen) battalion has lost dozens killed or wounded after a Ukrainian attack on their training ground in Kursk Oblast.

Early reports that "3rd Azov Corps" (I assume they mean 3rd Assault Brigade) has launched a counter-offensive on the Lyman front designed to cut off a Russian salient. Progress so far unclear.

[Werthead]

Russia has imposed fuel rationing in occupied Zaporizhzhia, citing increasing shortages (due to Ukraine obliterating its fuel tankers). One estimate that now a quarter of Russia's fuel tankers operating in the region have been destroyed or damaged so badly they had to be retired. Russia can bring more in, of course, but just bringing them in to have them destroyed is not a winning stratagem. The M14 and H20 highways are now highly vulnerable along their entire lengths.

A military column was observed driving from Mariupol to Melitopol in combat formation, despite being over 100km from the front. The column was spaced out more widely than normal with anti-drone gunners on constant alert.

Russian Telegram at the front is becoming increasingly frantic, with some soldiers reporting being outnumbered in drones 3-4 times over, or more, and in some cases Ukrainian soldiers have achieved local manpower superiority of 2-3:1. Ukrainian advances in some areas, particularly after the liberation of Stenpnohirsk, may be more significant than reported so far. The Russian focus on Donetsk is allowing Ukraine to make gains elsewhere, and even the advance in Donetsk is risible compared to previous offensives.

Ukrainian recon units have apparently pushed deep into Russian lines unopposed even on the main front in Donetsk. One Ukrainian unit was spotted only around 8km from Bakhmut. That's heading in the wrong direction for the Russians.

Ukraine has conducted offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, NE of Kostyantynivka, possibly straightening the line leading up to renewed Ukrainian offensive operations in Chasiv Yar. The Russians seem a bit flummoxed as their primary offensive effort is in Kostyantynivka itself and they have been driven back in some areas and the Ukrainians are instead counter-attacking on the flanks. However, some Russian units have penetrated further into the urban zone, leading to a more chaotic battlefield than we'd normally see in a urban conflict.

 A Russian propaganda film-maker attended the premiere of her film glorifying the invasion of Ukraine in South Ossetia, Georgia, fell in a river and has been declared dead. No foul play suspected, she was trying to cross a raging torrential river and the flimsy rope bridge snapped.

The M17 highway linking Kherson to Crimea has just come under very heavy drone attack, with multiple logistics vehicles destroyed. Russian forces along the Dnipro in Kherson are hugely dependent on resupply by truck from Crimea and are in a precarious resupply situation anyway.

Russian milbloggers are going berserk over the Zaporizhzhia front. Rybar has said he thinks the front may be effectively collapsing, at least in some areas, and believes some Ukrainian advanced recon units have either crossed the river and are already behind (south of) Kamyanske and between there and Vasylivka, or will be soon. There is insufficient Russian mass in the area to stop them. Russian forces are trying to rebuild the line but the casualties they have suffered on this front are beyond staggering.

It looks like Ukraine has now completely reversed all Russian gains on this front going back over 18 months.

The front is rolling back so fast that Malaya Tokmachka, which Ukraine retook just days ago, is already out of the grey zone.

Ukraine claims to have deployed five times as many mid-range strike drones in the first five months of 2026 than in all of 2025. Russian milbloggers believe Ukraine may be capable of launching 1,000+ drone swarm strikes by the end of this year, matching or exceeding the heaviest Russian strikes.

Russia has indicated it will break a war taboo and start targeting government buildings in Kyiv. Ukraine has indicated any such attacks will be reciprocal, and government buildings in Moscow may be targeted in response.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 25 May 2026 - 10:58 PM

[Mentalist]

Breakthrough towards Vasylivka would put a lot of pressure on the primary supply road towards Enerhodar, and the entire riverside of the L Bank Dnipro down to Nova Kakhovka. Though it's 10 km from Kam'yans'ke to Vasylivka, and it's a spot between two rivers (Yanchekrak to the N, Karachekrak to the S), so it'd be a risky salient, unless they can extend the advance along the river lines down SE towards Nesteryanka.

It's also worth noting that the main trench of the Surovikin Line is behind Vasylivka, enveloping it from the W and S, and then pulling E across the highways S to Melitopol' and SE towards Tokmak (which was supposedly the initial goal of the 2023 UAF push). So even if the UAF is able to enter Vasylivka chasing the scattered orcs, that won't amount to a "massive breakthrough" and "front collapse", although it would certainly make their ambitions to assault Zaporizhya directly far less likely- provided the salient can be expanded further E, so it's not just a thin strip along the river bank.

[Werthead]

Apparently Ukraine has drawn up a shortlist of 500 military targets in Belarus that would be targeted immediately by missiles and drones if more Russian troops enter Ukrainian territory from Belarus. Lukashenko is aware of this, according to Ukrainian sources.

125 fuel and supply trucks have been identified destroyed on the R-280 Mariupol-Melitopol-Simferopol route. Ukraine's 412th Nemesis Brigade has said the route is effectively shut down.

Much of Ukraine's recent success has come from the Hornet drone, developed in conjunction with the United States. Russian sources complain they do not have an effective counter to it at present.