[Macros]

I do the same, people here bitch about Ukrainian refugees and have started to spout 'well Ukraine was part of Russia'shit. I hit them with Chamberlain's bit of useless fucking paper.
They don't understand it, even when I explain why appeasement does not work

[Tiste Simeon]

I mean, if Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends. It's quite simple but there are too many unmitigated morons around.

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed report of a major Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Marinovka Airfield, destroying or disabling 4 Russian Su-34 aircraft. Russian milblogger Fighterbomber has indicated the report is accurate. 

The report on a Ukrainian drone strike on an S-400 battery in Crimea has been updated to suggest that two batteries were disabled by destroying a missile launcher, two Gravestone radars and two Big Bird radars.

Ukrainian sources now confidently reporting a complete halt to Russian advances in Sumy and some reversals of Russian gains have already taken place.

49 Australian M1 Abrams tanks have arrived in Poland, awaiting transfer to Ukraine.

Putin has acknowledged, for the first time, that inflation is a serious problem in the Russian economy that they are trying to bring under control.

[Werthead]

Massive Ukrainian attack on the Kriovske Airbase, Crimea. Three Russian helicopters destroyed, along with a Pantsir air defence system. Half the buildings on the base were left ablaze, along with the fuel storage depot. About two-thirds of the buildings and support infrastructure on the airbase was neutralised.

Ukrainian high-altitude interceptor drones have started destroying Russian loitering recon drones in large numbers. Russia has been making up for inferior satellite coverage by deploying drones at altitudes of several miles to oversee the battlefield. Ukraine's new higher-altitude drones are hunting them down for sport.

Ukrainian forces destroyed a UAV command post that was virtually on the front line in Pokrovsk. Unclear why the Russians were so close to the front, possibly limitations in the amount of fibre-optic wire that is available.

Ukraine's 225th Assault Regiment has launched a series of continuous small-scale operations on the Sumy front, wearing down Russian forces with continuous small-scale attacks that constantly pick off a few guys here and there. The Russians are calling for reinforcements, to no avail.

Multiple Russian POWs from the 132nd Horlivka Motorized Rifle Brigade have been taken, with many "familiar" faces amongst them. Russian soldiers who have surrendered to Ukraine, were treated well in captivity, returned to the Russians in prisoner swaps and then returned to combat (immediately, with no chance to go home and see friends and family), are considerably more likely to surrender a second time, knowing they'll probably be better-treated than they are on their own front. Some of them reported being allowed to call home from Ukrainian prisons, but not being allowed to call home whilst back on Russian soil.

Russian forces in Kherson are also demanding reinforcements or withdrawal; their position on the south bank of the Dnipro without air support has left them sitting ducks for Ukrainian artillery, drones, glide bombs and even direct bombs and missile fire from Ukrainian aircraft. But they are continued to order trying to cross the river, despite it being a death sentence. Meanwhile, Kherson city remains in Russian short-range drone range.

A train carrying 21 T-62s was filmed in Russia, heading for the front. These T-62s, from the look of them and what numbers that could be seen, have been stored outside for decades and seem to represent the scraping of the underside of the foundations under the barrel.

The SBU Alpha Group reports one of the most intense periods of activity in the entire war. In under two weeks it has eliminated 39 tanks, 78 IFVs, 124 artillery/MLRS systems, 14 air defence units, 10 EW units, 50 drones, 186 antennas, 17 ammo depots, 7 fuel depots and neutralised 842 Russian soldiers (killed, wounded or captured). This is a pretty wide grouping of the front, but still impressive.

The Russian 120th GRAU Arsenal in Bryansk has been destroyed.

In Belgorod, Chechen fighters beat up a Russian military police patrol for stopping them.

A detachment of Ukrainian troops are training with American forces in Romania. They demonstrated close coordination of HIMARS units with Leleka-100 drone reconnaissance to adjust targeting for maximum accuracy.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian intelligence has had access to Russia's EW systems for some months now and apparently they've been discovered, so they're sharing the information with the world. This includes Russian EW equipment installed on ships in the Arctic and in Kaliningrad to interfere with US and UK satellite observations, civil aviation and military communications. They've also confirmed that the Russian military is piggy-backing off Chinese civilian satellites, apparently without Beijing's knowledge. The EW systems are capable, but prone to malfunctions and are easily disrupted by weather and combat conditions.

The Washington Post confirms, via contacts in the Russian military and milblogger community, that many problems that were supposed to have been fixed by the Russian army continue to be issues. This includes the continued use of meat-wave assaults (though not quite as as wastefully as in previous years), Russian officers claiming success in taking objectives when they haven't, and then continuing attacks in the hope of taking the objective before being "found out," and widespread use of drugs and alcohol amongst Russian forces.

Corruption is the biggest problem and seems to have gotten dramatically worse since 2022, with Russian officers now demanding bribes from their soldiers. Those giving the lowest amounts are sent on suicidal assaults or putting them on punishment detail. Manpower is also major problem, with recruitment efforts for the last year or so turning up thin gruel, and equipment supply is a major issue, with many milbloggers organising funding drives to give individual units better equipment only to find the new equipment has gone missing or been stolen, making donators more reluctant to donate more the next time around. Russia also continues to make basic errors, such as sending skilled drone operators into storm units to take part in personal combat, despite their skills being better-employed with drones where they might make a much larger strategic difference. Some Russian sources are confirming that one-armed and even one-legged soldiers are being sent into battle, despite their lack of combat effectiveness.

The battle for Sumy is apparently one of the bloodiest of the war for the percentage of Russian soldiers sent into battle and killed, wounded or captured. The 40th Separate Guards Marine Brigade reports one unit sustaining 92% casualties. The survivors were apparently punished as deserters and told they should have died before retreating. One unit reports only eight men surviving from over a hundred when they made a push on the village of Kondrativka. Other units are reporting that their commanders claim a target is captured before they get to it, so droners, artillery and glide bombs are not supporting the attacks, and they end up being total sitting ducks for Ukrainian counter-fire. Some sources saying that Russia amassed 50,000 troops for the push into Sumy but has not deployed them well, sending some forces in piecemeal.

Russian forces declared victory in the battle for Stepova Novosilka (Kupyansk front), but when reinforcements moved in (again without artillery or drone cover) they found the forward positions empty and were then annihilated by a Ukrainian counter-strike, which (again) liberated the village.

Russian aerospace employees have been drafted into combat roles on the front line. Their fellow Russian soldiers sarcastically call them "Space Marines" and refuse to give them decent equipment, asking "what's the point?" as they'll be dead very quickly.

German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems has begun massed production of the Twister UAV in Ukraine.

The Czech Republic confirms that it has halted all purchases of Russian crude and will not buy any more.

Chechen forces are amassing in Zaporizhzhia, apparently for actual combat duties. So far Russia has avoided using Chechen units in massed offensives, but their manpower problems might be leaving them little choice. Kadyrov has made no comment so far.

Azerbaijani police raided the Sputnik offices in Baku, arresting undercover Russian FSB agents posing as journalists. The Russian Foreign Minister has summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to explain himself. This incident took place after a Russian police raid in Yekaterinburg that left several Azerbaijani nationals dead. Azerbaijan state television has warned that Putin is trying to become Stalin, and warned "this is not 1937, we are independent," and mentioning Azerbaijan's recent impressive military successes against Armenia.

NATO intelligence is signalling that Putin has instructed the Russian military to prioritise capturing Odesa. How this will be accomplished with Ukraine holding the line of the Dnipro is unclear. There are also mixed feelings amidst NATO and member countries' intelligence, some believing that Ukraine can hold its current borders with only modest losses before the end of this year (by which point the Russian economic, manpower and supply efforts for the war should have long culminated), some warning of a "significant deterioration," believing that Ukrainian defences are being tested and a significant breach somewhere could turn into a major strategic disaster with surprisingly little warning. However, there are also concerns/hopes that the Russian economic situation could suddenly turn disastrous with even less warning.

[Werthead]

Some extremely unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian ballistic missile launches, with high-altitude missiles heading towards the Astrakhan launch facility for Russia's Oreshnik missiles. Rumours that Russia was fuelling one or more Oreshniks with conventional warheads for strikes on Ukraine. Also reports of a drone swarm attack on the facility. Some photographs and video showing a huge fire at the missile launch facility, but this is not verified (the more reliable OSINT sources are not rushing to verify).

Additional reporting of a massive Ukrainian drone and missile strike on targets across Crimea. Multiple radars, AA systems, bridges, ammo depots etc under attack, air defences are responding. The Crimean Bridge has gone on lockdown.

Ukrainian missiles reportedly hitting an airfield in Rostov, but confusion, with some sources saying drones and others Storm Shadows. What appears to be video of a Storm Shadow overflying Donetsk.

Ukraine has been building domestic ballistic and cruise missiles with a large enough range to hit most of European Russia for some considerable time, but has so far not fielded them. This may be the first time they've done so, but the situation is extremely confused. Storm Shadows don't have the range to reach Astrakhan.

Even more unconfirmed reports of explosions in the North Caucasus region.

[Werthead]

Mark Rutte: "Lavrov is the foreign minister of Russia, I think, since the birth of Jesus Christ. And since then, nothing, anything useful came out of his mouth. So let's not pay too much attention to Mr. Lavrov."

The deputy head of the Black Sea Fleet has been killed in Crimea. A senior FSB general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow.

The President of Azerbaijan has held a long phone call with Zelensky. The Kremlin is furious.

A major Russian arms depot in Khartsyzsk, Donetsk has been destroyed. The place was totally blown to pieces in one of the biggest single explosions possibly of the whole war.

[Cause]

I read that Russia is looking to cool military spending in 2026 compared to 2025. Apparently this talk assumes a ‘victory’ in Ukraine.

I don’t know then if this is pure delusion or really a tacit admission that the war is lost and that spending is unsustainable.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 03 July 2025 - 01:17 AM, said:

I read that Russia is looking to cool military spending in 2026 compared to 2025. Apparently this talk assumes a ‘victory’ in Ukraine.

I don’t know then if this is pure delusion or really a tacit admission that the war is lost and that spending is unsustainable.

It's lies.

They are massively building up on the Finnish and Estonian borders. They aren't slowing down any time soon.

As long as the oil money keeps flowing in, they will have neough rubles to pay people signing military contracts. And as other sectors wind down and unemployment rises, military service becomes more lucrative.

There certainly has to be a breaking point, but no one really knows where it's at.

Bunch of confusion regarding what high-ranking orc officers got killed where. The Pacific Marines (155th brigade) HQ got HIMARSed in Korenevo, Kurs'k Oblast- killing the brigade commander, who was also (apparently) Deputy commander of the entire orc Navy. There's also separate (unconfirmed) reports that a high-up of the Black Sea Fleet was killed in a drone strike in Crimea, when HUR targeted cape Tarkhankut (the westernmost point on the peninsula where the orcs keep a bunch of radars and Anti-air systems).

UAF's been hitting multiple MIC factories- Izhevsk drone production, Kotovs'k gunpowder plant, and Yelets battery plant. More hits on airbases, primarily targetting anti-air systems.

Orcs hit a milcom in Poltava, as well as port infrastructure and a high-rise in Odessa. Yesterday tehre was a huge explosion in Zhytomyr, unclear what was hit, but I suspect it was something related to UA MIC.

trump to speak to putler today, to Zelensky tomorrow.

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 03 July 2025 - 03:04 PM, said:

Yesterday tehre was a huge explosion in Zhytomyr, unclear what was hit, but I suspect it was something related to UA MIC.

Rumors seem to say storage of thermobaric missiles but also probably other munitions. The explosion certainly looked impressive.

This post has been edited by Chance: 03 July 2025 - 03:13 PM

[Werthead]

​Germany has offered to buy two Patriot batteries from the USA for Ukraine.

The US has paused a major arms delivery to Ukraine, citing threats on the home front and their own stockpiles are getting low. It has been pointed out that some of the items in the delivery were arranged on the condition of Ukraine easing off on striking Russian oil infrastructure, and those strikes could begin again.

Remarkable claim the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has told EU representative Kaja Kallas that Beijing cannot "afford" a Russian loss in Ukraine as that would allow the US to switch its entire strategic focus onto China.

The EU has agreed to fund the construction of a European-gauge railway from Lviv to Poland.

Ukraine has used its heavy Lazar strike drones, launched from unmanned naval carriers, to destroy three Russian Nebo-M radar systems in Mayak, Crimea. 

Russia's oil revenue has fallen to a two-year low.

Another Trump-Putin call. Trump apparently ended the call frustrated, as Putin refused to commit to another round of peace negotiations.

Ukraine has unveiled the POP Fly, a drone derived from and improving on the US Switchblade. The drone can be used for recon or attack at ranges of just over 100km.

Russia has recognised the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, the first government to do so. The Taliban flag is flying over Moscow.

According to Medvedev, 210,000 contract soldiers joined the Russian army in the first six months of 2025. But the number of Russian troops on the ground in Russia and Ukraine appears to be virtually identical to six months ago, confirming some estimates that Russia has suffered close to 200,000 casualties (killed, captured, deserted or wounded into incapacity) in the same time period. In the last year, Russia has expanded its control of Ukrainian territory by 0.7%, which is a very steep cost for relatively limited gains.

The initial claims of Ukrainian ballistic missile usage seemed to do down pretty fast. There was explosions at the launch facility in Astrakhan but unclear on the extent of the damage: the facility is actually pretty securely locked down so local footage was taken from a distance. Current talk seems to have been of long-range drones maybe hitting a fuel storage facility. I get the feeling that they got mixed up with the blizzard of Storm Shadows that was hitting Donetsk and Crimea at the same time.

Ukraine's ballistic missile stockpile remains wholly unengaged, which is interesting (Ukraine has at least some with ranges capable of hitting Moscow, but they're clearly holding back on them for some future escalation, and to amass a larger stockpile).

Claims of civilian casualties in the strike on Donetsk also seem to have eased off, with confirmed casualties so far limited to Russian military personnel.​

This post has been edited by Werthead: 03 July 2025 - 10:19 PM

[Mentalist]

Any big surprises UA is probably saving up for August, as usual.

US holdup seems to be Colby's initiative, as Rubio seems completely out of the loop.

It would align with Colby's long-stated "China is the only real enemy" priorities.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 03 July 2025 - 08:41 PM

[Werthead]

Apparently Hegseth halted the supply shipment to Ukraine off his own back, irritating Trump. Trump may order the shipment restarted, framing it as a review of the USA's own military readiness and discussing things with Zelensky and Macron, and not just his secretary being an idiot (not the first time that Hegseth's annoyed Trump, and Trump is only keeping him on team until he finds someone credible who is willing to take on the role). Trump is apparently fuming after his last call with Putin, for whatever that's worth.

A Russian car carrying three UAV operators who'd been using drones to attack civilians in Kherson City has exploded.

Ukraine has double-tapped the headquarters of Russia's 8th Combined Arms Army after - truly imbecilicly - the site was used to host another meeting despite the main building being almost completely levelled.

The Chinese consulate in Odesa has been hit by a Russian Shahed drone...containing Chinese components. The Polish embassy in Kyiv also took damage during the latest Russian attack.

Azov, Rostov was hit by multiple Ukrainian drones, including a new model that resembles the Shahed.

Russian state television is carrying interviews with historians and propagandists suggesting that Azerbaijan is an "invented state" that "should have never existed." Russia invading Azerbaijan would really be an interesting thing to see: a Russian thrust would only be possible down the coast, which can be bottlenecked easily, whilst the massive drone and conventional forces that Azerbaijan has amassed for a possible invasion of Armenia could easily be redirected against not just Russia, but the Russian-occupied Georgian states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Some Azerbaijani media sources are basically inviting them to try it.

Armenia has banned all Russian-language broadcasts in the country and forcibly shut down Russia's local media operations. So something that Armenia and Azerbaijan can agree on for once. 

This post has been edited by Werthead: 04 July 2025 - 07:27 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 04 July 2025 - 07:26 PM, said:

Apparently Hegseth halted the supply shipment to Ukraine off his own back, irritating Trump. Trump may order the shipment restarted, framing it as a review of the USA's own military readiness and discussing things with Zelensky and Macron, and not just his secretary being an idiot (not the first time that Hegseth's annoyed Trump, and Trump is only keeping him on team until he finds someone credible who is willing to take on the role). Trump is apparently fuming after his last call with Putin, for whatever that's worth.

A Russian car carrying three UAV operators who'd been using drones to attack civilians in Kherson City has exploded.

Ukraine has double-tapped the headquarters of Russia's 8th Combined Arms Army after - truly imbecilicly - the site was used to host another meeting despite the main building being almost completely levelled.

The Chinese consulate in Odesa has been hit by a Russian Shahed drone...containing Chinese components. The Polish embassy in Kyiv also took damage during the latest Russian attack.

Azov, Rostov was hit by multiple Ukrainian drones, including a new model that resembles the Shahed.

Russian state television is carrying interviews with historians and propagandists suggesting that Azerbaijan is an "invented state" that "should have never existed." Russia invading Azerbaijan would really be an interesting thing to see: a Russian thrust would only be possible down the coast, which can be bottlenecked easily, whilst the massive drone and conventional forces that Azerbaijan has amassed for a possible invasion of Armenia could easily be redirected against not just Russia, but the Russian-occupied Georgian states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Some Azerbaijani media sources are basically inviting them to try it.

Armenia has banned all Russian-language broadcasts in the country and forcibly shut down Russia's local media operations. So something that Armenia and Azerbaijan can agree on for once. 

Azeri invasion into Dagestan would be somethign to behold, but let's not kid ourselves, it won't happen.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 04 July 2025 - 07:45 PM, said:

Azeri invasion into Dagestan would be somethign to behold, but let's not kid ourselves, it won't happen.

No, that would be drifting into the realms of fantasy. But very amusing to consider. Most likely will be a repeat of what happened with Kazakhstan a couple of years ago, a lot of bellowing and then it dies down with Russian influence diminished and the other country signing deals with China, Turkey, the US and/or Europe.

[Werthead]

The Russian Borisoglebsk Airbase in Voronezh Oblast took a big drone hit. A glide bomb depot at the airfield was hit, resulting in a massive blast. Some claims that Russian aircraft were damaged. The Engels Airport at Saratov was also hit.

Multiple drones have hit Russian munitions factories in Cheboksary, more than 1,000 km from the Ukrainian border. A chemical plant in Shebekino, Belgorod was also destroyed.

Germany is planning to buy and manufacture 1,000 Leopard 2 tanks and 2,500 Boxer IFV. Germany is committing to creation seven combat brigades (35,000 troops) for NATO operations.

Unconfirmed report that a further Russian Tu-160 strategic bomber has been destroyed. One report saying it was on the ground in a drone strike, another that it was in the air launching cruise missiles towards Ukraine when it strayed into Ukraine's air defence zone.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 July 2025 - 07:08 PM

[Werthead]

A large chunk of Russia's civil aviation was shut down over the weekend due to a combination of technical failures and drone strikes near airports. At one point there were over 7,000 stranded passengers at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg who nearly rioted.

The Russian 810 Marine Brigade on the Kursk front may have become combat-ineffective. The unit was ordered into several massive assaults on fortified Ukrainian positions and suffered losses Russians on Telegram reported as "staggering". This one unit alone lost several hundred casualties in under 48 hours.

Ukrainian forces engaged Russian assault troops near Hlyboke, Kharkiv and eliminated them.

Russia captured the settlement of Dachne after furious combat over the weekend, but Ukraine launched a surprise counterattack which recaptured the town whilst Russian forces were reorganising to defend it.

A Russian drone struck a ROSHEL armoured vehicle carrying Ukrainian Special Forces from the 5th Omega Special Purpose Regiment. Despite a significant explosion, the ROSHEL's armour held and the troops were able to evacuate in good order and return to base with no injuries.

Ukraine's drones seem to be heavily targeting enemy drone control centres, artillery and MLRS systems, and AA systems along the front. Russia is seeing a huge uptick of these systems destroyed. Conversely, Russian tank losses have dropped significantly, and in some areas of the front the Ukrainians have simply not seen any tanks at all for months. More than 40 drone control centres have been destroyed in the last month. 

Russia has initiated a large-scale offensive movement along the entire length of the Zaporizhzhia front, the first time they have attempted this in three years. The objective is the Mariupol Highway. So far Ukrainian defences are holding, some commanders noting it's a good thing they are trying to push the whole front rather than focus on one sector (where they would be more likely to break through).

Russia's budget deficit has hit $47 billion in six months. This is the budget deficit target for the entire year. Russia's budget deficit for 2025 looks likely to be 1.7% of GDP, up from 0.3% in 2024. Spending has increased by 20% whilst revenues have grown by less than 3%. Oil and gas revenues have dropped 17% on 2024.

Ukraine is manufacturing over 200,000 drones per month, a 900% increase on early 2024.

A Russian soldiers on the Orikhiv front surrendered to a Ukrainian drone, which guided him to the Ukrainian lines. However, his comrades noticed and, after failing to hit him with an artillery barrage, used a kamikaze drone to eliminate him before he reached Ukrainian territory.

The Krasnozavodsky Chemical Plant has taken multiple drone hits. The plant is over 500km from the front and produces solid-fuel rock components used in S-300, S-400, Iskander and other missile systems.

Ukraine is using DOT-Chain Defence, an Amazon-like digital procurement system so frontline units can directly order what they need from central stocks without having to go through a lengthy ordering system.

South Korea and Peru have cancelled orders for American aircraft. South Korea is ditching an Apache helicopter order in favour of drones, and Perun is cancelling F-16s in favour of Swedish Gripens.

Ukrainians seem to be approving of the British Raven SAM system, a short-range AA system that can take down inexpensive Russian recon drones at a low cost per shot.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 07 July 2025 - 08:39 PM, said:

South Korea and Peru have cancelled orders for American aircraft. South Korea is ditching an Apache helicopter order in favour of drones, and Perun is cancelling F-16s in favour of Swedish Gripens.

It's interesting to see how the Ukraine war, Iran proving the value of russian air defense and perceived unreliability of the US is driving military purchases away from the two traditional big arms dealers.

For most smaller nations especially those with less dollars to spend however the Gripen should be superior to anything else, high purchase cost but low operating costs are the way to go.

[Werthead]

After the Russian heavy losses in Sumy, it looks like the Ukrainians have gone further on the offensive, retaking Andriivka and Novokostiantynivka and are now contesting Kindrativka. One late-breaking report that Ukrainian forces identified a weak spot on the Kindrativka line and have broken through it, outflanking the rest of the Russian forces and threatning to collapse the forward edge of the Sumy salient. Ukraine are now aiming to collapse the Sumy salient altogether with newly-arrived reinforcements, including some elite units.

The US is resuming all paused arms shipments to Ukraine and Trump has lost his rag with Putin, saying he's full of "bullshit" and he is now considering pushing through the big sanctions bill that Lindsey Graham has been putting together. He's also suggested they may start to look at supplying Ukraine with weapons beyond what they have at the moment. The EU is preparing to push through its most significant sanctions package against Russia since the start of the war.

We're now up to 34 Russian businessmen and officials involved in the energy industry having been killed since the start of this year, mostly through suicide. This seems statistically unlikely.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 08 July 2025 - 09:16 PM, said:

We're now up to 34 Russian businessmen and officials involved in the energy industry having been killed since the start of this year, mostly through suicide. This seems statistically unlikely.

And the 2025 Award for Tactfully Understated Yet Scorching Text goes to....