[Werthead]

Ukraine has agreed to accept a total ceasefire across the board, rather than just the aerial and maritime one they had previously discussed (itself originally a French proposal). As a result, the United States is restoring intelligence sharing and military aid. The Americans will be talking to the Russians shortly and say the "ball is in their court" and if they do not agree, "we'll know who the impediment to peace is."

On the Siversk front, a major Russian attack was crushed by the Ukrainian 30th, 54th and 81st Brigades. The loss is 14 APCs destroyed, 16 damaged; 1 tank destroyed, 2 damaged; 159 Russians killed, injured or taken prisoner.

Ukraine carried out a major drone strike overnight, damaging a Moscow oil refinery and the control station for the Druzhba pumping station, which controlled Russian oil transit to Hungary. The Stalny Kon oil depot in Oryol and the Dyagilevo airfield near Ryazan were also hit. A Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine was mostly thwarted, with a single Iskander-M missile launched and then shot down. Ukrainian drones also attacked targets in Moscow itself, but at least some seem to have been intercepted by EW systems.

The Ukrainian Mirages are capable of carrying out AASM ground-strike missions, as confirmed by the French government. France has also ordered a doubling of its production rate of Rafales, AASMs, anti-tank missiles and drones.

[Mentalist]

Some voenkors and at least one Duma member already rejected the idea of a ceasefire.

Witkoff will be in Moscow on Thursday to speak to Putler directly.

UAF seems to be focusing their defense on Sudzha itself, the orcs are already in its eastern outskirts.

I am not expecting much to come from this, but UA has made the necessary appeasement gestures for the Europeans' benefit. Now if Washington flip-flops, it'll be obvious it's not UA that is to blame.

[Werthead]

A Chinese news crew (from the Hong Kong Phoenix station) embedded with a Ukrainian MLRS unit and followed them around for a week and filmed them launching missiles at Russian positions. Apparently this is the first time a Chinese media crew was given permission to film things from the Ukrainian POV rather than the Russian.

This comes the same week that Russia hiked import tariffs on cars from China.

[Tiste Simeon]

 Werthead, on 11 March 2025 - 07:54 PM, said:

A Chinese news crew (from the Hong Kong Phoenix station) embedded with a Ukrainian MLRS unit and followed them around for a week and filmed them launching missiles at Russian positions. Apparently this is the first time a Chinese media crew was given permission to film things from the Ukrainian POV rather than the Russian.

This comes the same week that Russia hiked import tariffs on cars from China.

Who had China becoming the (sort of) good guys in 2025? If the EU and China can firm up some kind of alliance in the face of Russian stubbornness and American unreliability/idiocy/fascism then that would certainly be a boost across the board.

Please note I am not saying China are good or agree with many of the things I hear about them. They're looking more palatable by the day though. What times we live in.

[Chance]

Tiste Simeon, on 11 March 2025 - 10:03 PM, said:

Who had China becoming the (sort of) good guys in 2025? If the EU and China can firm up some kind of alliance in the face of Russian stubbornness and American unreliability/idiocy/fascism then that would certainly be a boost across the board.

Please note I am not saying China are good or agree with many of the things I hear about them. They're looking more palatable by the day though. What times we live in.

They might not be the friend we want but they are the rival we know what they stand for and who is reliable. Better a reliable rival than a unpredictable ally maybe.

Think it will be interesting to hear what putin and his cohorts will say about the ceasefire to not sound unreasonable while being unreasonable.

This post has been edited by Chance: Yesterday, 04:02 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

Oh I fully expect something to mysteriously blow up in Russia, the Russians and Americans will kick off with "See! Zelensky is not playing fair!" And use it to justify who knows what. In the meantime it will have not been Ukraine at all but we'll never be able to prove it.

[Werthead]

Current reporting from Russia is spotty but one of the more convincing claims is that Putin will accept a ceasefire on the condition that all weapon supplies to Ukraine halt, as he thinks Trump will accept that.

Unconfirmed claims that Russia had told the US it would not negotiate unless Ukraine withdrew from Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian withdrawal from Sudzha has been completed, and some reporting that all Ukrainian units have withdrawn across the border into Ukraine proper.

Maxar has restored satellite sharing with Ukraine.

Russian losses in the last 24 hours or so are the highest they've been for weeks, approaching 1500 killed, wounded or captured.

Polish sources have confirmed that US weapons supplies across the border have returned to normal levels.

[the broken]

So, would Ukraine or Russia benefit more from a truce right now?

[Mentalist]

the broken, on 13 March 2025 - 12:56 AM, said:

So, would Ukraine or Russia benefit more from a truce right now?

UA would get a 30 day reprieve from civillian cities being bombed and droned, have more time to regroup and fortify its defenses, and its European allies will have more time to get their shit together regarding ramping up their military spendings and production.

The orcs would lose their (already faltering) attacking momentum, but also get some time to regroup. But the pressure's on them, since they continue claiming UA is occupying territory they "constitutionally annexed" and they don't want to end the war until they "return it" (nevermind large chunks of it they never controlled in the first place)

[Abyss]

Tiste Simeon, on 11 March 2025 - 10:03 PM, said:

Werthead, on 11 March 2025 - 07:54 PM, said:

A Chinese news crew (from the Hong Kong Phoenix station) embedded with a Ukrainian MLRS unit and followed them around for a week and filmed them launching missiles at Russian positions. Apparently this is the first time a Chinese media crew was given permission to film things from the Ukrainian POV rather than the Russian.

This comes the same week that Russia hiked import tariffs on cars from China.

Who had China becoming the (sort of) good guys in 2025? If the EU and China can firm up some kind of alliance in the face of Russian stubbornness and American unreliability/idiocy/fascism then that would certainly be a boost across the board.

Please note I am not saying China are good or agree with many of the things I hear about them. They're looking more palatable by the day though. What times we live in.

Tariff War 2025 Canada here, suspension of disbelief cranked to 11.

[Werthead]

Ukraine now appears to have recaptured most, if not all, of Shevchenko, and its network of defensive fortifications. If they can hold it again, that would be hugely useful in staving off future assaults on Pokrovsk.

Trump has indicated that discussions between the US and Russia have touched on the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russia is having severe difficulty keeping online in a safe way. Some speculation that discussions may involve the power plant becoming under full IAEA control, or US nuclear engineers may take over plant operations pending a final peace settlement. It seems unlikely Putin would agree to return it to Ukrainian control.

Ukraine and Turkey have agreed a free trade agreement.

A fire is blazing at the CHP-16 power plant just outside Moscow. At one point it looked like the firefighting services had lost control of the blaze, but it appears to be back under control again.

Putin has indicated he may be amenable to the 30-day ceasefire if Ukraine agrees to not conduct training or rearmament in that time. He has not proposed that Russia do the same thing.

Poland has confirmed it is willing to host American nuclear weapons on its territory.

Ukraine has made further attacks on the Toretsk salient, trying to pinch off the head of the occupation zone and trap hundreds, at least, of Russian troops there. Ferocious resistance by the Russians but they seem to be giving ground.

Some analysis of Russian manpower availability has quizzed why Russia's concentration of troops in the Kursk area to oust a relatively small number of Ukrainian troops has apparently led to the near-collapse of Russian lines at Toretsk and Pokrovsk, not to mention significantly weakening the Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk front. Russia should have been able to conduct offensive operations in Kursk and at least hold those lines. This has led to the suggestion that the Russian manpower availability on the front may be reaching critical levels in various sectors. If, as Putin has hinted, the forces in Kursk now will try to invade Sumy Oblast to establish a "security area," the situations in those sectors may deteriorate further.

The ambassadors of Denmark and Germany visited the Russian foreign affairs ministry in Moscow today. No statements were given.

Finland and Ukraine have signed a new defence cooperation agreement.

37 countries have now agreed to support a security coalition over Ukraine. Many of these countries are not in NATO and believe they may be more acceptable as peacekeepers to Moscow (one NATO member, Turkey, believes it may also fall into this category).

The newly-advancing Russian forces in Sudzha came under heavy drone attack as they attempted to move on from the town.

Rheinmetall is negotiating with Volkswagen to take over inactive car plants to turn them into weapons production plants (things that would sound sinister in the 1930s but sound better in the 2020s).

One Ukrainian soldier fighting in Kursk believed it was worth it: in one battle in October, he saw 76 VDV Russian forces eliminated with almost no Ukrainian losses, and vast destruction of Russian tanks and IFVs. They also lost a lot of drone operators, as they deployed too close to the front and could be taken out with artillery. Although the operation eventually had to be abandoned, Russian losses outweighed Ukrainian and Russian bombs and weapons were impacting Russian territory rather than Ukrainian (he notes over 80 glide bomb hits on one small hamlet and the surrounding treelines in one day, and we saw a fuel-air bomb used in the closing stages of the battle).