[Werthead]

Russian recruiters are undertaking crackdowns on Russia's nightlife under the cover of their anti-LGBT legislation. In reality they are press-ganging hundreds of young men into the war and making it seem like they are gay, so there will be less outcry about it. Extremely cynical even by Putin's standards.

Scholz in Ukraine. He and Zelensky unveiled a joint Ukrainian-German project, a drone based on the Shahed design which apparently fits a larger warhead on a smaller airframe with an AI-driven homing system. New Patriot launchers will arrive in Ukraine from Germany this month, along with Gepard AA systems (which have proven unexpectedly potent at anti-drone measures). Scholz was asked about Taurus but dodged the question.

Simultaneously, Baerbock in Beijing to discuss German-Chinese efforts to promote peace in this and other conflicts.

More Russian attacks repulsed in Kursk. One attack saw three BTR-82ATs destroyed in rapid succession. Heavy Ukrainian drone action near Vovchansk, apparently a renewed effort to force Russian forces back across the border and clear Kharkiv Oblast (again), though there's still the interdiction to the east near Kupyansk.

Russian government officials have apparently been instructed to begin preparing for Russian victory celebrations in 2025 or 2026. Apparently, a variety of scenarios have been laid out including the war ending with the lines very close to where they are now, and advice on how all of these scenarios can be sold on a "just victory worth the blood." However, all the scenarios talk about the "demilitarisation of Ukraine" and it being prevented from joining NATO.

The Kurakhove front continues to move in Russia's favour, but the quick Russian advances of recent days may have slowed as Russian forces suffer heavier losses along the front. Almost 1,800 Russian casualties again yesterday (in the whole theatre, not that one battle).

Six Ukrainian children kidnapped early in the war have been repatriated to Ukraine.

31 Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace overnight, apparently in error.

One Russian unit which had to withdraw its position found a vast quantity of abandoned food a couple of miles behind the lines. Apparently their supply corps had refused to go right to the very front in case they were targeted by drones, so ditched the supplies short of the front. One Russian servicemen declared, "we had f---ing nothing to eat!" Another Russian soldier recorded an attempted infantry attack, where only 8 troops were available to advance on a Ukrainian position. All 8 went forward, but 5 were killed and the remaining 3 all injured to some extent.

The head of VTB, Russia's second-largest bank, is gloomy. He believes even if the war ends tomorrow, the forex reserves will not be returned but instead given to Ukraine. He is not optimistic on the state of the gold and currency reserves. He thinks sanctions will take some time to be withdrawn, and in the meantime the Russian economy will contract significantly.

"Volunteers" from Myanmar and Laos have apparently joined Russian units on the front.

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces in Russia have evacuated completely from Hama in Syria, and some forces in Damascus have relocated to the coast in case they need rapid extraction.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 December 2024 - 08:31 PM

[Mentalist]

It would appear the syrian frontline shifted north of the city of Hama, but the overall offensive has slowed down. Possibly because the Turkiye-backed groups that spearheaded the offensive got involved with removing Kurdish enclaves in Aleppo province.


Georgian protests are ongoing nightly, but we aren't seeing any permanent presence on the street that can resist the police presence. The number of civil servants that break with the Georgian Dream government is growing slowly, and President Zurabashvili declared the new parliament to be illegitimate and refused to step down once it elects a new Pres in December. It remains to be seen if she's going to be able to form an alternative government that could seize control of key ministries. According to Georgian commentators, the opposition continues to be dis-united, and they aren't presenting a single, proactive front that could focus the popular protests.

It appears everyone is waiting until escalation of violence reaches its eventual conclusion, with police applying lethal force. Or until Zurabashvili and the opposition can gain enough momentum to de-facto overtake the reins of government. Either way, it's still touch and go.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 03 December 2024 - 03:04 PM

[Werthead]

Putin's niece, deputy defence minister Anna Tsivilyova, has (inadvertently?) confirmed that there are over 48,000 missing Russian soldiers in the war to date. The likelihood is these have been killed and not identified, with probably a small number going AWOL.

Kadyrov has confirmed he made up the whole getting a Cybertruck from Musk as a present thing, surprising nobody.

NATO is planning to field fleets of USVs with seafloor-imaging capabilities in both the Baltic and Mediterranean by next summer. These will monitor the status of undersea cables in realtime.

The head of the Russian Central Bank has said that it will take two years to bring inflation under control. Experts think they mean "...after the war ends." There's little they can do to address the problem whilst the war continues and spending remains out of control.

Opposition party leaders in Georgia have had their offices raided by police.

Tucker Carlson has visited Russia again to interview Lavrov. Wild rumour that he interviewed Assad at the same time, before the latter returned to Syria.