[Werthead]

Russia has lost five mechanised columns in Kursk. They launched successive attacks down the same stretch of road which Ukraine had pre-zeroed. The losses have not been fully calculated yet.

Russia also attempted an attack on another sector in Kursk by launching a simultaneous assault by road and a flanking attack across a river. The flanking attack was mistimed, allowing the Ukrainians to destroy each part of the attacking force in turn. After the attack Russia boldly proclaimed that the town of Glushkovo was in Russian hands, which Ukraine agreed with, since it had never captured it in the first place.

There's an unconfirmed report that Putin has given his generals a new deadline of 20 January 2025 (Trump's inauguration) for the recapture of Kursk.

This is older news from last year, but Mosfilm Studios handed over military hardware they had in storage for the production of films to the army. 28 T-55 tanks, eight PT-76 tanks, six APCs and eight tractors from the 1950s were handed over. These vehicles were refurbished and sent to the battlefield.

Russia launched a new attack on the Kupyansk front, using Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms to try to confuse the defending forces. Not being idiots (and allegedly some of the advancing Russian soldiers could not speak Ukrainian), the Ukrainians identified the threat and eliminated it. 15 vehicles were destroyed and the Russian assault was pushed back.

Russian researchers ROMIR have made the extraordinary claim that inflation may have peaked to over 70% in the last few weeks, massively outstretching even the most insane internal and external calculations. Economists think that the Russian State Bank will have to raise interest rates from 21% in early December, maybe sooner, and it might be more dramatic than people are expecting.

In Novosibirsk, Russian soldiers staged a riot in their barracks and then fled to avoid being sent to Ukraine.

Belarusian air defences reportedly engaged Russian Shahed drones that flew into their territory "accidentally," out of a concern of them hitting Belarusian targets by accident. Twelve drones penetrated the border at once, possibly a new record.

Ukraine has been able to redeploy the 2S7 Psion mobile artillery piece, a heavy gun firing 203mm shells. Ukraine exhausted these in 2022 but has received an undisclosed number of replacements from the United States.

Mark Rutte believes that NATO deliveries to Ukraine in the closing weeks of 2024 and opening of 2025, combined with the aid the US has sent recently and ongoing deliveries of shells from the Czech initiative, will allow Ukraine to continue fighting for a considerable time through 2025, possibly the whole year. If South Korea agrees to supply new weapons to Ukraine, it could keep Ukraine afloat into 2026 and maybe even 2027 even if US support is cut after January. Possibly optimistic, as the South Korean administration will also have to calculate its own response to Trump's re-election and its need for US support.

NATO Military Committee Chair Rob Bauer has confirmed that the only reason NATO has not entered the conflict is because of Russia's nuclear arsenal. If they didn't, then NATO would have "kicked them out of Ukraine" long ago.

Putin has declined to attend the G20 summit in Rio, perhaps being less sure that ICC member Brazil won't arrest him.

Ukraine has developed fake M-777 artillery guns that not only resemble the real guns, but can even simulate firing. Apparently Russian drones had gotten better at spotting guns because of how long they sit in a location and do not fire, so hopefully this will increase their effectiveness.

Russian state television has developed new nicknames for Trump, calling him "Ginger" and "Donya."

John Thune's election as Senate Majority Leader has been greeted enthusiastically by some observers, noting him as a pro-Ukraine hawk who favours continued aid and rejects American withdrawal from the world stage. How much impact he can have remains to be seen.

[Werthead]

The ruble is now worth 1 American cent. The Russian Central Bank has stated there has been a significant increase of prices through October which is "not a good sign." No shit, Sherlock. This is the central bank prepping the groundwork for another interest rate hike in December from 21% to whatever they think is needed. The problem is that what is needed may be substantially higher than that, but too large a hike will trigger a meltdown in the economy which Putin will be gunning to avoid. If they don't do that, then it will be wholly ineffectual.

Sberbank has raised the rates on basic mortagages by 3.5%, with the minimum rates for loans for housing under construction will be 28.4%. 

Krymsk Airbase in Krasnodar Krai took a pounding from a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack, some reports saying, "dozens" of drones were involved. This would be an unusually large attack by Ukrainian standards. Several ground explosions, scale of the damage unclear.

Recent Ukrainian drones have been focusing on GRAD MLRS systems in Donetsk Oblast. There has been a significant reduction in Russian artillery piece manufacture and decline recently, but a large increase in MLRS production orders (see Perun's latest video). Reportedly this is down to increasing shell shortages but the much bigger problem of replacement barrels. Russia is pushing for increased rocket artillery instead, but MLRS ranges are a problem and the lack of target discrimination is a bigger problem.

US shell production has surpassed 50,000 a month and recent infrastructure improvements mean its should surpass 100,000 a month in January. France has delivered 600 AASM extended-range guided bombs to Ukraine in the time it has produced 1,200 new ones, enough to both restock its own armory and continue providing new bombs to Ukraine.

In Dalnje, Donetsk, a mismatched armoured clash took place where a single Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 ambushed a Russian column of multiple tanks and IFVs. The Russian suffered multiple vehicle losses.

Ukrainian special forces have apparently succeeded in killing Captain Valery Trankovsky of the 41st Missile Boat Brigade in Sevastopol. He was blamed for a series of missile destroyer attacks on Ukraine with Kalibr cruise missiles that killed dozens of civilians.

European countries delivered 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2024 so far, but plan to deliver 500,000 more in just December 2024 and January 2025.

For the first time, the EU has created a joint defence procurement system to apply economies of scale to benefit all member state for arms purchases. €11 billion is being committed to the purchase of anti-air systems, fighting vehicles and artillery ammunition, alongside additional aircraft. Some will be spent internally, some on arms from abroad (most notably the USA).

Mike Waltz, a key Trump advisor and possibly about to become formal national security advisor, has taken a hawkish view on Russia, although apparently as a way of quickly ending the Ukrainian conflit so the US can pivot to China. He has pointed out that Lithuania is now buying oil and gas from Texas and Louisiana, as are other European powers, at Russia's expense and to the enrichment of the United States. Waltz wants to take that to the next level and enforce energy sanction son Russia and remove limitations on long-range weapon use to "force him to the table."

Major political unrest in Abkhazia, in Georgia, after the administration tried to ratify an exclusive investment deal with Russia. Opposition groups have occupied the parliament building.

A captured Russian soldier has said that training the North Korean recruits has not gone smoothly. One fired a grenade launcher at the ground, killing himself and several other NK soldiers.

Olaf Scholz has spoken by telephone with Putin for the first time in two years. Scholz emphasised German and European support for Ukraine was undimmed and urged him to withdraw his troops and end the pain that both countries are suffering. I think we can assume Putin was not immediately moved to comply. Scholz spoke to Zelensky before and after the telephone call.

The Russian government is threatening the International Atomic Agency for making "negative comments" about safety the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and said they can be removed if they don't shut up.

Japanese advanced demining equipment is currently operating in areas regained by Ukraine, resulting in a greatly speeded-up disposal of mines. Unfortunately the equipment is too large and ungainly to be used closer to the combat zone.

[Werthead]

Russia launched a major attack overnight on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian targets. Ukraine shot down about 75% of the missiles, including using Patriot to destroy Kinzhal "hypersonic" missiles. The damage was still significant.

In response, the United States, France and Britain have jointly authorised Ukraine to use any of their weapons on any legitimate target within range, including on Russian soil.

This has been signalled for some time, and Russia withdrew major military assets out of ATACMS, glide bomb and SCALP/Storm Shadow range some time ago, but there are limits on that and some weapons stockpiles can't be moved without basically making it impossible to resupply the front line in a timely manner.

[Lady Bliss]

Is Zelensky kissing up to trump or does he believe the war will go better with him?

[Tiste Simeon]

Lady Bliss, on 18 November 2024 - 03:16 PM, said:

Is Zelensky kissing up to trump or does he believe the war will go better with him?

It would be very expedient for him to do so, especially now Biden has given the go ahead to launch missiles into Russia.

It may all be fruitless of course as I'm sure they will all jump when Putin tells them to in January.

[Werthead]

Lady Bliss, on 18 November 2024 - 03:16 PM, said:

Is Zelensky kissing up to trump or does he believe the war will go better with him?

There are multiple considerations at work.

The first is profound disappointment with Biden. They believe the US has, pretty continuously, given Ukraine the green light to do things between 6 and 18 months after it could have had a really major, instrumental impact, and Biden has refused to consider things that could really change the discussion. The Ukrainians have a common phrase that Biden is giving them enough not to lose, but not enough to win, and this will bleed Ukraine over the long term. One US hope was Russia economic failures would compel Putin to end the war, but whilst the Russian economy has suffered tremendously, and right now is in the most precarious state since the start of the war, it seems to be taking far too long and every time the Russian economy looks like it's on the brink, they've managed to finagle some solution to give it another few months. The December interest rate hike could be the last gasp for an economic downturn solving the problem of the war for everyone (current rumour is the central bank wants to ram interest rates to a very high level to deal with inflation, and they've been ordered not to by the Russian government).

The second is that Trump's proposed deals require Ukraine to give up territory but they require Russia to give up some conquered territory and, if they refuse, Russia has to suffer additional consequences, including possibly the US giving Ukraine more money and equipment (though more likely to be in the form of loans measured against Ukraine's trillions of dollars of rare earth minerals, possibly economically binding Ukraine to the United States indefinitely). Whilst Ukrainians are aware that Trump could sell them down the river too cheaply, they also think that Putin will try to play hardball and that will make Trump play far more hardball and to Ukraine's benefit. It's a bit of a hazardous throw of the dice, but after months and months of fairly timid help from Biden, they might be willing to make it.

There's also the fact that Ukraine has obviously suffered fairly badly from the war, the population is exhausted, the military badly needs a rest, and they need time to stockpile new supplies and weapons. Whilst the risk of giving Russia time to regroup, refresh and reinforce before attacking again is very real, it might be that Ukraine simply needs a pause, even on dubious terms, or risk a major collapse in morale and willingness to fight in another year or two, not out of determination but simply exhaustion and a dwindling supply of equipment and troops. Trump "forcing" an end to the war on unfavourable terms could also give Zelensky plausible deniability and a way of ending the war and a scapegoat for doing so (ignoring that the Ukrainian government, despite performing much better than expected, has sometimes handled things poorly, particularly in the political and economic spheres).

There is a real fear, particularly in eastern European countries, that Russia has been pushed to the brink of economic ruin and Putin's political position is the weakest it has been since he became President the first time around, and Trump could undermine all of that and give Russia a win when pushing on for just a few more months might have resulted in a total Russian defeat. But without a crystal ball, we can't say that for sure.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 November 2024 - 04:28 PM

[Mentalist]

Lady Bliss, on 18 November 2024 - 03:16 PM, said:

Is Zelensky kissing up to trump or does he believe the war will go better with him?

Trump is going to be looking favourably towards Putler, being another strongman he can relate to.

Zelensky is trying to appeal conciliatory, as his goal is to lead Putler to personally rebuff Trump, as that would lead to an emotional reaction that would be to UA's benefit.

If Putler is willing to offer "good terms", Trump will exert pressure on Kyiv to make big concessions. Which will be political suicide for Zelensky, as the majority of UA's remaining population is still against any territorial concessions.

This is why Putler is so desperate to dislodge UAF from Kurs'k Oblast' before Trump takes the reigns, so that they can offer a freeze along current frontlines. They can't do that as long as "canonical" Muscovite territory is occupied, for obvious reasons. Trump wouldn't see that as nearly so much of a big deal- Sudzha and Bakhmut are same thing to him, he'd consider it a "good swap". So Zelensky is probably banking on keeping a foothold N of the border, and thus forcing Putler to rebuff any talks about land swaps. This would make Putler the unreasonable one, and (possibly) prompt Trump to support UA more openly.

Biden's new decision is probably a response to the new round of missile strikes on power and heating grid. Also, the damage to undersea internet cables. I don't expect these to be game-changers, unless they can hit large troop concentrations in Kurs'k- but I'm not sure we have enough ATACMS for that.

The problem with freezing the war is that it will effectively trigger an ethnocide in the occupied territories. The orcs will do their utmost to assimilate Ukrainians living in the occupied portions of the South, and they will also resettle hundreds of thousands of Russians thereto make sure they (the territories) "stay Russian". We've seen this song and dance many times over the past 250 years, and it's not going to change now. That's the danger with a "ceasefire"

[Tsundoku]

Man, is it me or did the value of ground floor apartments in Russia just surge, and floors above 1 plummet (pun intended)?
BTW, for the uneducated, it goes Ground floor, 1st floor, 2nd floor etc. Ground floor is not 1st floor - that is a perversion by barbarians.

Renowned Russian ballet dancer Vladimir Shklyarov falls five storeys to his death
A dancer who criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been found dead after falling five storeys from an apartment.

https://www.news.com...e9effdd61f690cb

[Abyss]

Tsundoku, on 19 November 2024 - 06:13 AM, said:

... it goes Ground floor, 1st floor, 2nd floor etc. Ground floor is not 1st floor - that is a perversion by barbarians.
...

You indicate the number 2 with thumb and pointer finger, don't you?
You pronounce it 'aluminIum', don't you??
YOU PUT THE TOILET PAPER IN NEW SHEET ON THE BOTTOM DON'T YOU YOU SAVAGE????!!!!????

[Nicodimas]

Us made long range rockets using US satellite and advanced software targeting used to hit Russia.

The escalation just grew...the war party wins this round it seems.I expect a large response from Moscow.

A weird scenario ..you cannot strike your enemy and not expect them to strike back harder. I guess we get to see if Putin was bluffing at the cost of Ukraine people.

[Nicodimas]

Putin signed use of nuclear weapons IS permitted.escalation would be lightning quick.

Nkorea upping troops to 90k.

From Bidens plan Rostov is in range.

NATO countries preparing for war. Neat.
(I fear for my friends in Poland..may sanity rule out)

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 19 November 2024 - 03:31 PM

[Mentalist]

Day 1000 since the super-violent phase of this insanity began.

Apparently, UA's Ground Forces have tripled during that time.

A strategic-size depot in Bryansk that was previously hit by drones apparently got ATACAMSed last night. Will this new permission actually allow us to (temporarily) stem the onslaught? Honestly. I have some doubts. But here's hoping for the best.

S. T. A. L. K. E. R. 2 will be out tomorrow. Part of the development team had to relocate to Prague. Part joined the UAF, several developers were killed. Several started the war in Mariupol'.
The fact that GSC is still releasing their biggest game ever is yet another testament to Ukrainian resilience.

EDIT: @ Nico.

SO far, they've been slicing internet cables in the Baltic.

Most likely "escalation" would be supplying 3rd party actors with more advanced weapons to target Western military assets.
There won't be a direct strike on Europe. No one is that desperate.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 19 November 2024 - 04:06 PM

[Garak]

Also Putin and his goons have been warning of severe consequences and escalations since this thing began. Which is very cheeky coming from the guy who started it and has more resources than the his target. "I hit you know, but if you hit me harder then you'll be sorry! Have to keep the odds in my favor after all. Only fair." - yeah how about you go choke on a rat? Ugh. They've also warned they'll use nukes so often it's getting hard to take them seriously.

[Werthead]

Large explosion at the 67th GRAU Arsenal in Bryansk Oblast. Russia reporting it was an ATACMS strike, but locals only reported seeing drones. The US and Ukraine have indicated that Ukraine has targeted Russian facilities with ATACMS but not this specific incident.

Danish ships have apparently apprehended a Chinese cargo vessel in the Baltic, which reportedly "accidentally" cut submarine cables with a faulty anchor. Unclear on the current status of that situation.

The United Nations Security Council hosted a vote to start peace negotiations in Sudan, and Russia vetoed it. The other four members, including China, voted in favour it. The Chinese looked a bit surprised when Russia struck it down. China has been trying to encourage diplomacy and peace in Africa - with its help, of course - whilst Russia seems to want the crisis to continue to generate more refugees who will hopefully head towards Europe. Wagner mercenaries have also reportedly crossed into Sudan from the Central African Republic and looted several Sudanese gold mining operations.

Six new F-16s have arrived in Ukraine from Denmark.

Renewed analyses that Ukraine has potentially 14 brigades of troops in reserve who have been relatively well-trained but lack full equipment to be deployed. Some dispute that, saying 14 brigades is too high and may include multiple brigades deployed earlier this summer to the front, plus the brigades still training in France and the UK.

Oh, here we go.

The Russian Central Bank is to inject emergency funds into state-owned banks to help finance a growing budget deficit of 3.3 trillion rubles. Starting on 25 November, it will offer loans to banks to buy government bonds, funding military and government spending. 

Financial analysts agog, saying this would work if your interest rates aren't at 21% and about to go even higher. As it stands, this could help trigger the very economic meltdown they're trying to avoid. Lots of discussion on economic forums about if this could actually blow inflation out of the water.

Economic translation: Russia has started printing money. This always ends well.

Russian ground forces have fought their way into Toretsk and have finally managed to get a sizeable bridgehead across the canal zone east of Chasiv Yar. They have been trying to achieve both these objectives since the start of the year.

Toretsk looks likely to fall but the actual battle for Chasiv Yar hasn't even started yet.

So don't pop open the champagne bottles just yet.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 19 November 2024 - 09:43 PM

[Cause]

What’s the thinking in Russia’s new MIRV missile. If it’s basically a nuclear weapon delivery system but being used to deliver conventional explosives I would think that it must cost a fortune?

Will this be a rare ordinance that seems to be russias only way to to respond to Ukraines new freedom to fire into Russia or is it an actual game changer?

[Werthead]

Cause, on 21 November 2024 - 09:36 PM, said:

What’s the thinking in Russia’s new MIRV missile. If it’s basically a nuclear weapon delivery system but being used to deliver conventional explosives I would think that it must cost a fortune?

Will this be a rare ordinance that seems to be russias only way to to respond to Ukraines new freedom to fire into Russia or is it an actual game changer?

Russia does have a large number of ICBMS and MBMS, which could make up for shortages in other munitions areas, but each one is incredibly expensive, they take months to build just one, they don't have tens of thousands of them, and every time one launches, you're going to have the hands controlling the USA, UK and France's nuclear weapons systems getting twitchy.

My thought would be this was a one-off intimidation tactic which people then ignore. Russia keeps claiming it's shooting down Storm Shadow missiles and ATACMS so from the Russian POV, there is no problem there (the reality, of course, being rather different).

[Mentalist]

The point is to make all the headlines say "Biden's reckless decision is provoking Putler, edging towards WW3"

Those missiles are nearly irreplacable (well, they would be, if American and EU machine tools manufacturers gave a shit where their production ends up), and they can't achieve any strategic advantage by using them. Just like UAF is unlikely to seriously disrupt the orcs' momentum with the handful of long-range missiles they got available.

This is mostly posturing for the sake of improving international e-peen standings.

[Werthead]

The JNIM terrorist group launched an attack on a Wagner convoy in Mali, killing six Russian mercenaries.

Ukraine is working on a formal appeal to the United States to purchase one or more THAAD anti-ballistic systems.

The UK is looking at sending more decomissioned equipment to Ukraine, including helicopters, Watchkeeper drones (noting their utility as older models may be questionable) and even HMS Northumberland.

Mark Rutte, head of NATO, is holding a meeting with Trump.

A rather wild claim has been made that Russia actually attacked Dnipro with two medium-range ballistic missiles, but one exploded on the launchpad. No convincing evidence has been produced of that.

Ukraine has established reasonably firm defensive lines around Sudzha in Kursk and these lines have repelled massive Russian attacks in recent weeks, with some claims that North Korean soldiers may have been part of the attacks, though the evidence for that is conflicting.

A closer analysis of Russia's economic situation: Russian interest rates have shot up from 8% in July to 21% in October. The Russian Central Bank wants an even larger hike in December, but the Kremlin is angrily resisting for fear of causing an economic panic. Inflation rates are officially 8-9% but one Russian source has said they might be closer to 70%. That seems rather high, but the agreement is that interest rates of 21% seem quite steep to deal with inflation at 8%.

The ruble continues to fall, with 103 Russian rubles now required to equal $1.

73% of Russian enterprises are reporting labour shortages, some very severe. At the same time, factory capacity utilisation has passed 80%, a record high. Stagflation is a real fear due the economy reaching the limits of capacity whilst demand continues to rise. Interest rates are pushing up credit costs, commdities have lost their Western markets and defence factories are running at full capacity, leaving little for sales. Russian oil exports to India and China are bringing in less than a third and maybe closer to a quarter of the pre-2022 income of exports to Europe.

Massive stimulus packages have kept GDP growth surprisingly high, but forecasts for the rest of this year and into next have been revised downwards. Growth will be 3.1% in Q3, down from 4.1% in Q2 and 5.4% in Q1. Overall 2025 growth has been revised down to 0.5% by the Central Bank.

And as noted previously, Russia is printing money, through a rather weird circuitous route. This will push inflation even harder.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 November 2024 - 05:08 PM

[Mentalist]

Official inflation includes stuff like cars, real estate, etc.

Everyday consumer goods inflation is at least 30% year-on-year. 21% interest rates aren't going to be enough to curb that, which is why there's ongoing expectations of rising prices, making it an ongoing, vicious and cyclical self-fulfilling prophecy.

None of that is particularly helpful for UA, though, b/c the clock continues to tick and there's no certainty as to what'll happen with US support come January.

[the broken]

What makes you so sure it's not helpful?

Inflation makes everything more difficult. including continuing the war.