The Russians are wildly claiming that Ukraine is about to launch a two-pronged attack across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast, landing a brigade on the Kilburn Spit and sending two to three others across the Dnipro in 3-4 locations they mapped out during the Krynky expedition. The plan would be to drive to the coast through Russian defences denuded of troops to support the attack in the Donbas and cut off Crimea.
Multiple problems with this, in that I'm not sure Ukraine has the manpower necessary, it'd be chancy as f, retreating from the Krynky bridgehead only to retake it under fire would be militarily insane and the Kilburn Spit is not a very good place to put thousands of troops, as Russia can bottle them up there. It's not impossible but it seems iffy.
Other Russian sources believe that the Ukrainians will re-launch their offensive in Zaporizhzhia, seeking to push forwards to Tokmak (again) and threaten Melitopol (where partisan efforts remain ongoing), if not Mariupol. Their previous offensive stalled due to a lack of good mine-removal equipment, but Ukraine's capabilities in that area seem to have improved. The Russian forces in that area are also of uncertain loyalty to Moscow.
Yet other commentators doubtful that Ukraine can or will do anything of the sort and will continue to focus on Kursk, where there is still a lot of low-hanging fruit, and defending against the Donbas offensive.
Syrsky has been promoted to 4-star general for the success of the Kursk Operation.
Ukraine has agreed to a prisoner swap requested by Russia, recovering 115 defenders in return for troops captured in Kursk. Thousands more Russian troops, including many conscripts and Chechens, remain available for prisoner swaps.
Ukraine has deployed its new jet-powered drones for the first time. A Palyanitsa drone hit a Russian ammo depot in Voronezh and destroyed it.
ISIS terrorists took control of a prison in Volgograd. After a stand-off, Russian forces stormed the prison and killed the four terrorists, but also four hostages were killed in the process.
The fire in Proletarsk is now in its sixth day and is threatening to spread to residential areas. The Proletarsk refinery might become the first refinery to be outright destroyed in Ukraine's campaign targeting Russian oil infrastructure, rather than having bits of it hit.
Lukashenko congratulated Ukraine on its independence day and made more conciliatory noises about ending the war. Some Russian sources claiming there is widespread discontent in the upper echelons, some of whom are now pushing for a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, but hardliners are uninterested. Putin himself shows no signs of backing down.
With the sinking of the last cross-Kerch Strait fuel ferry, Russia has been forced to restart fuel deliveries by train across the rail bridge, which is making those responsible very nervous.
Alleged reports that Russia has deployed T-14 Armatas to Ukraine. There have been multiple reports of this but they never quite materialise on the battlefield.
Modi is visiting Kyiv and has called for peace. He has placed memorial toys for Ukrainian toys killed by Russia, and said he will mediate a peace based on territorial integrity and mutual respect when both sides are willing to do so (which is not now, obviously).
Russian soldiers have discovered that Ukrainian drones are dropping munitions in forested areas that resemble logs. When Russian soldiers approach, the log explodes with predictably injurious results.
The Vostok Battalion has apparently mutinied and told its commanding officers to stop with suicidal meat attacks on Ukrainian strongpoints. The command staff has, surprisingly, agreed (due to cripplingly high casualties and nonexistent success in recent recruitment drives) and deployed small-formation attacks similar to Ukrainian tactics. This has reduced casualties and contributed to some tactical gains on the battlefield. Fortunately, other Russian units have angrily refused to follow suit.
Ukrainian drones have remotely attached Ukrainian flags to multiple radio masts, water towers and even some buildings in Russian-occupied areas, for independence day.
Chechen troops filmed looting a Wildberries (Russian equivalent of Amazon) warehouse in Kursk Oblast rather than going to the front. Glushkovo has almost been looted empty by Russian troops, some of whom subsequently retreated over the Seym via pontoon bridge.
The Mongolian government has dropped plans for the Russia-China "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline to pass through Mongolian territory. With China still refusing to okay the pipeline, the project is now effectively dead.
Kadyrov filmed his son Adam engaging in weapons training with, er, golden machine guns.
This post has been edited by Werthead: 24 August 2024 - 12:11 PM