[Mentalist]

Cause, on 17 November 2023 - 08:54 PM, said:

Werthead, on 17 November 2023 - 07:42 PM, said:

Putin may be facing another indictment by the International Criminal Court. They have mounting evidence that Russia planned to forcibly export Ukraine's stocks of food in the result of a successful invasion, leaving most of the civilian population to starve. Russia bought three new bulk cargo ships to ship immense amounts of grain out, and food infrastructure has been reportedly targeted during the conflict.

Why would they do that? Its not like Russia is starving and there has to be better ways to make a profit from conquering Ukraine. This seems crazy?

Holodomor 2.0

Reporting indicates they've already settled 30 k people in Mariupol, predominantly from Central Asia and the Caucasus.

There's good reasons why Ukrainians are hell-bent against accepting a "ceasefire"

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 17 November 2023 - 09:02 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

Does indicting him actually do... Well, anything at all, whatsoever? Anywhere on the world stage?

The people willing to work with Russia will still do so. Those who won't will continue to ineffectually condemn Russia without taking any real action against them. And Ukraine will continue to fight alone.

[Abyss]

Tiste Simeon, on 17 November 2023 - 10:14 PM, said:

Does indicting him actually do... Well, anything at all, whatsoever? Anywhere on the world stage?

The people willing to work with Russia will still do so. Those who won't will continue to ineffectually condemn Russia without taking any real action against them. And Ukraine will continue to fight alone.

If he leaves Russia he could, in theory, be arrested and made to stand trial in a compliant country. I don't think it's ever been done to any standing or former national leader.

[Cause]

South Africa asked him not to come to the BRICS summit. Realistically not because they would arrest him but because they didn’t want the optics of not arresting him.

South Africa previously failed to arrest I think the president of Sudan or something who they apparently were obligated to do so before.

[Werthead]

Looks like the rains and even snow is starting to kick in over southern Ukraine. The roads around Robotyne are turning into a quagmire, which is both good for Ukraine (it complicates Russian counter-attacks) and bad (they can no longer continue attacking themselves).

In a few weeks the ground will freeze over completely, which may allow for some offensive operations to resume.

Ukraine has destroyed a Russian military base at Tarasivka Airfield in occupied Kherson. 

Ukraine has unveiled "Backfire," a new drone which is relatively small, but can carry fairly large explosive payloads. The drone apparently has a powerful antenna which can overcome Russian jamming and allows it to operate 35 km behind enemy lines. Further details are so far classified.

Ukraine has also adapted its "Baba Yaga" large agridrones to serve as "drone carriers." The Baba Yaga flies towards its target and releases a FPV drone at the 50% mark before returning to base. This allows the FPV drone to strike targets considerably further away from the front than its operational range would suggest is possible.

Ukraine is also deploying new drone tactics. A recent new move has been monitoring a Russian vehicle, following it from afar, wait for the people on board to stop or get out, park the drone underneath the vehicle, and then detonate when they return, rather than trying to hit them on the move and engaging in an energy-sapping chase scene like from a movie. Also some success in using Ukrainian drones as mines, flying them onto a road or into a field well ahead of Russian forces and detonating when they get nearby.

Another Russian TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launcher has been destroyed along with a Pantsir aerial defence system, both in occupied Kherson in the vicinity of recent Ukrainian gains.

Another $200 million+ EW complex has been destroyed in occupied Kherson Oblast. Russia doesn't have very many of these and their highly questionable tactic is to wait until one has been destroyed and then send forwards a replacement, which inevitably gets blown up a few days to weeks down the road. Russia has lost at least four of these so far.

Ukraine has transferred fresh reserves to Avdiivka and launched counter-attacks on the advancing Russians. Reportedly, some areas where Russia has had success and advanced in recent weeks have been retaken, but minor successes so far. Russian sources are claiming the Ukrainian counter-attacks are ineffective, but then they always do.

[Lady Bliss]

I wish the Ukraine war wasn’t taking a backseat to Israel. These are 2 equally huge crises and Ukraine can’t be forgotten.

[worry]

I think it's not at risk of being forgotten in the short term, but it is definitely being put at risk by the Biden Admin's completely ass-backwards juxtaposition with Israel/Palestine -- as expressed in his analogy where Israel = Ukraine rather than Russia -- and his positions to date regarding these two fascist invasions. I think election predictions this far out are still very premature, but he's definitely done some real damage to his re-election prospects. Even then, Ukraine support is not necessarily at risk, if say Trump is convicted and a neo-con Republican is elected over Biden. But another Trump Admin remains the ticking time bomb for everything.

[Werthead]

​
Ukraine has formally liberated some small villages and hamlets on the left (south) bank of the Dnipro. Some of these were actually freed some weeks ago, but they've only released information today. Very smalls settlements, and precarious gains, but interesting.

Russian forces around Krynky report they are outnumbered 3:1 in drones and artillery. Ukraine is bombing outbuildings Russian soldiers were sleeping in, using quiet-running drones to recon the area beforehand. Some Russian soldiers have reported sleeping in the woods is safer. Russian losses so heavy in some areas that some soldiers went to bed conscripts and woke up officers due to overnight losses. It's unclear if Russia is reinforcing the area or not. It's also unclear if Ukraine has brought over heavier equipment across the Dnipro, which may limit their ability to advance. 

A Russian volunteer deliveryman decided it would be a sensible move to post pictures of his resupply mission to a Russian-held gas station near Kreminna, as well as several other positions. The following day, Ukraine bombed those positions, causing significant loss of manpower and equipment. It looks like Ukraine is also mounting further counter-attacks to reclaim the territory lost in Russia's limited advance on Kreminna a few months ago, with Leopard tanks engaging Russian positions outside Syn'kivka.

Ukrainian forces continuing counter-attacks at Andriivka. The 3rd Assault Brigade undertook a series of close-assault raids on Russian trenches, engaging units of the Russian 72nd Brigade and 10th Spetsnaz Brigade. They advanced under cover from snipers, who kept the Russians pinned down, before using grenades and small arms to clear out several trenches. Seems to be a limited counter-attack so far, but the Russians are clearly taking some losses, at least in the area. Unclear when the impact on the overall Andriivka advance is.

Russia, in an equally intelligent move, congregated a large number of soldiers rather recklessly close to the front to hear a concern by Moscow-based singer Polina Menshnykh. Ukraine targeted the area with an artillery strike that caused significant casualties. Menshnykh was killed as well.

Some claims that a Russian Ka-52 helicopter got confused and destroyed a Russain MT-LB in a friendly fire incident near Novomykhaylyvka. It looks like the helicopter was engaging a Ukrainian vehicle and the Russian units got caught in the crossfire. Seems to be some doubts about the veracity of the story.

Some wrangling in the US at the moment. It has emerged that 1200 ATACMS have "expired" and are no longer wanted for use by the US military. These can be released to Ukraine immediately, but there is still wrangling in the White House over this, despite, so far, Ukrainian compliance with the limitations placed on the use of their existing ATACMS.

Finland is closing all but one border crossings with Russia, citing an increase in attempted illegal migration crossing from Russia into Finland with the support of the Russian government.

The Czech government has proposed an amendment to EU rules so that Russian diplomats will not be able travel visa-free from EU country to EU country. Instead, they will have to stay within their host country only.

No idea if this is true or another Ghost of Kyiv, but Jesus Christ.

[Cause]

I saw Putin spoke about stopping the 'tragedy of the Ukraine war' that he started. Seems Russia must be feeling the pain or perhaps more charitably they see an opportunity to negotiate a ceasefire that will let them keep the crimea while the west is indecisive. Still hardly the words of a man who believes his army will be making gains any time soon.

I also saw coverage that Russia is offering realtivley large enlsitment bonuses and increased pay for people to sign up to for tank battalions with only a 6 month contract. 6 months says to me you either dont expect them to live to 7 or you plan to somehow not let them leave despite your promise. You dont pay someone to enlist, put them through boot camp and say goodbye six months later. Also a sign of desperation to increase retcrutiment.

Werthead, on 22 November 2023 - 09:52 PM, said:

A Russian volunteer deliveryman decided it would be a sensible move to post pictures of his resupply mission to a Russian-held gas station near Kreminna, as well as several other positions. The following day, Ukraine bombed those positions, causing significant loss of manpower and equipment. It looks like Ukraine is also mounting further counter-attacks to reclaim the territory lost in Russia's limited advance on Kreminna a few months ago, with Leopard tanks engaging Russian positions outside Syn'kivka.

I dont doubt this story or something similiar to it is true and happening all the time. Crazy to realize how addicted/reliant we are on phones and social media etc that we really all have become opperational security nightmares. Not just in war but in life in general probably. Not to go down a crazy cosnpiracy rant about data tracking but makes you think. With your life on the line you still might think sharing a selfie of your mission is just a fun idea.

This post has been edited by Cause: 22 November 2023 - 11:22 PM

[Tsundoku]

If she ever becomes a threat rather than a token voice, she had better stay away from windows.

40-year-old single mother to challenge Vladimir Putin in 2024 election after claiming Russia is on path to ‘self-destruction’
Vladimir Putin’s apparently invincible position as Russia’s leader has been challenged by an unlikely rival. But his regime has already reacted.

https://www.news.com...2247b0a26ff7e1d

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 23 November 2023 - 10:48 AM

[Werthead]

Apparently Russian naval command has ordered its missile carriers to reload at Novorossiysk rather than Sevastopol, which they now regard as too exposed and vulnerable. The facilities at Novorossiysk are not as large and sophisticated, slowing the rate at which Russian warships and submarines can be restocked. They are working to improve logistics, but this may switch Russian responsibility for missile strikes primarily to their aircraft.

Kyiv has been hit by the largest drone attack of the war so far. At least forty drones were destroyed in the air.

Russia has established a ferry service work alongside the Kerch Bridge, in case the bridge is destroyed.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 25 November 2023 - 11:55 AM

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 22 November 2023 - 11:19 PM, said:

I saw Putin spoke about stopping the 'tragedy of the Ukraine war' that he started. Seems Russia must be feeling the pain or perhaps more charitably they see an opportunity to negotiate a ceasefire that will let them keep the crimea while the west is indecisive. Still hardly the words of a man who believes his army will be making gains any time soon.

I also saw coverage that Russia is offering realtivley large enlsitment bonuses and increased pay for people to sign up to for tank battalions with only a 6 month contract. 6 months says to me you either dont expect them to live to 7 or you plan to somehow not let them leave despite your promise. You dont pay someone to enlist, put them through boot camp and say goodbye six months later. Also a sign of desperation to increase retcrutiment.

Werthead, on 22 November 2023 - 09:52 PM, said:

A Russian volunteer deliveryman decided it would be a sensible move to post pictures of his resupply mission to a Russian-held gas station near Kreminna, as well as several other positions. The following day, Ukraine bombed those positions, causing significant loss of manpower and equipment. It looks like Ukraine is also mounting further counter-attacks to reclaim the territory lost in Russia's limited advance on Kreminna a few months ago, with Leopard tanks engaging Russian positions outside Syn'kivka.

I dont doubt this story or something similiar to it is true and happening all the time. Crazy to realize how addicted/reliant we are on phones and social media etc that we really all have become opperational security nightmares. Not just in war but in life in general probably. Not to go down a crazy cosnpiracy rant about data tracking but makes you think. With your life on the line you still might think sharing a selfie of your mission is just a fun idea.

As long as the mobilization edict is in effect, no one* is allowed to break their contract with the MoD, and expired contracts are automatically renewed. Mobilized troops whose relatives are asking for additional mobilization so their loved ones can be rotated off the frontline are told that they're there till the end.

*except the convicts in the penal battalions who get to go go home after their 6 months to rob, kill and rape in their communities to their heart's content as newly-minted "war heroes" *


I have not seen any official statements from the UAF listing liberated settlements on the L Bank. The one video everyone was posting turned out to be old from last years' ops in Right-Bank Kherson oblast'.

Zelensky stated allies will provide warships to Ukrainian navy to escort grain ships in Western Black Sea. This strikes me as a questionably good idea.

[Werthead]

China has apparently refused to invest in the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and is looking for further gas discounts from Russia. Russia's Gazprom might be in trouble because it has had to expend two-thirds of its 2021 cash reserve to cover its titanic losses since the start of the war and it has had to cut production by over 25%, the biggest reduction in its history. Without the PoS2 (ha), Russia has no way of offloading its excess gas so may have to proceed anyway, at a huge cost to the Russian state.

The unit that complained to Shoigu about not being rotated from the Krynky area have now said they have been reduced to just 50 men from three companies, and cannot undertake the orders they have been given to hold their positions, let alone try to retake the Dnipro islands lost to Ukraine a few months ago.

Russia's defence industry has failed to make any significant sales at the Dubai Airshow. Russian aerospace companies were moved to a side of the hall away from the big guns and were unable to convince anyone to buy their equipment, despite competitive discounts and inventive advice on how to avoid the sanctions regime.

Russian state media has been discussing the need to capture...Lisbon. That might be putting the cart before the horse at this stage.

Ukraine has declassified intel on an operation from 13 May this year. Russian aircraft were launching attacks on Ukrainian soil and Ukraine engaged them with Patriot systems firing at long range. Reportedly, in less than ten minutes, Russia lost one Su-34, one Su-35, two Mi-8MTPR-1 variant helicopters and another standard Mi-8. Later that day, the same battery shot down an Su-35 operating over the Black Sea in international waters, apparently thinking it was out of range of Ukrainian air defence. Since the advent of Patriot and the "Bryansk Massacre," Russian aircraft have pulled back even further, reducing their effectiveness over Ukraine with anything but the longest-ranged cruise missiles.

The families of servicemen in Novosibirsk who previously demanded the return of their soldiers (or their bodies) have loudly protested after they were called "foreign agents" by a Russian TV host. They told him, "We are not enemies of the people, we are the people."

Some complaints on the front of newly-arrived Russian weapons misfiring or not being properly tested. Mortar bombs are arriving with much less gunpowder than they should have, meaning they can't be aimed properly (as they're lighter, so don't travel the estimated distances) and when they detonate, do much less damage. One Russian soldier complained that "even the Iranian bombs are better!"

[Cause]

Werthead, on 27 November 2023 - 07:49 PM, said:

Russian state media has been discussing the need to capture...Lisbon. That might be putting the cart before the horse at this stage.

I wanto assume this cant be Lisbon, Portugal but these days I cant be sure

[Werthead]

Cause, on 27 November 2023 - 11:41 PM, said:

I wanto assume this cant be Lisbon, Portugal but these days I cant be sure

No, they absolutely meant Lisbon, Portugal.

[Tiste Simeon]

Werthead, on 28 November 2023 - 08:58 PM, said:

Cause, on 27 November 2023 - 11:41 PM, said:

I wanto assume this cant be Lisbon, Portugal but these days I cant be sure

No, they absolutely meant Lisbon, Portugal.

This might be a stupid question, but, erm... Why? Lisbon is, well, not exactly close to anything that's going on over there...

[worry]

Tiste Simeon, on 28 November 2023 - 09:36 PM, said:

Werthead, on 28 November 2023 - 08:58 PM, said:

Cause, on 27 November 2023 - 11:41 PM, said:

I wanto assume this cant be Lisbon, Portugal but these days I cant be sure

No, they absolutely meant Lisbon, Portugal.

This might be a stupid question, but, erm... Why? Lisbon is, well, not exactly close to anything that's going on over there...

Spoiler

[Mentalist]

Tiste Simeon, on 28 November 2023 - 09:36 PM, said:

Werthead, on 28 November 2023 - 08:58 PM, said:

Cause, on 27 November 2023 - 11:41 PM, said:

I wanto assume this cant be Lisbon, Portugal but these days I cant be sure

No, they absolutely meant Lisbon, Portugal.

This might be a stupid question, but, erm... Why? Lisbon is, well, not exactly close to anything that's going on over there...

Because they intend to *checks notes*

"push NATO off a cliff into the sea"

And Lisbon is basically the westernmost point of note on the Eurasian continent.

[Werthead]

Confirmation that Russian Major General Vladimir Zavadsky was killed in Ukraine. According to one report, he decided to take a captured Ukrainian vehicle but came under friendly fire from Russian troops. Panicking, he drove off-road and hit a Russian mine.

Russia has sold off more than 10% of its total currency reserves to keep the ruble stable into the new year. Speculation that this is to prop up the economy during Putin's re-election campaign.

[worry]

Major General Benny Hill.