[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 28 December 2022 - 05:37 PM, said:

Russian TG reports that Kreminna is taking an absolute pounding and they need to withdraw or be reinforced ASAP. Some Ukrainian sources reporting the city is capitulating, but the Ukrainian military is saying this is premature.

They still haven't taken Dibrova, which is the village in the forest to the W of the city. That entire forest to the S and W is full of mines and mud, which makes advancing insanely difficult. So I wouldn't be celebrating just yet.

There's rumors that UAF is assaulting Zhytlivka, which is NNW of the city, but on the L bank of the Krasna river, so already flanking the eastern bank suburbs; however, since we still don't have any confirmation that Chervonopopivka on the P-66 highway has been secured, I'd advise against any hype just yet.

People are also talking about gains on the highway NW of Svatove, but again, without any official confirmation this means the gains aren't fixed and the orcs could still counter and retake ground at any point.

[Werthead]

Apparently some of the lines around Bakhmut got a bit too static and the Russians forgot to keep relocating, resulting in significant losses from a coordinated HIMARS, mortar and artillery strike. This seems to be an ongoing problem, 11 Russian officers were killed in Kherson in a similar HIMARS attack.

The "Russian Volunteer Corps," a Ukrainian military formation made up of Russian soldiers fighting for Ukraine, some of whom are former POWs taken in this very war who've said screw it and swapped sides, is apparently coordinating with Russian friends and sympathisers at home in an increasingly well-coordinated campaign of infrastructure sabotage and civil disobedience. Which is nice.

Interception of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have risen from barely 40% a few months ago to now regularly exceeding 85%, and sometimes 90%. Patriot should increase that significantly. Russia is expending vast amounts of expensive munitions to hit electricity substations and transformers, which can often be replaced within hours to days. Russia also seems to have started digging into its strategic reserves of such munitions meant to be used in a war with NATO.

Apparently, among European leaders, only Hungary, Serbia and Belarus got special New Years' messages from Putin. Interestingly, he also skipped Kim Jong Un.

[Werthead]

Interesting analysis of ammunition supplies to both Russia and Ukraine, with a focus on artillery.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 03 January 2023 - 06:03 PM, said:

Interesting analysis of ammunition supplies to both Russia and Ukraine, with a focus on artillery.

Perun's videos are generally very good. Recommend them for anyone who wants to understand military topics and especially the current conflict, while he was a bit off in the early conflict after that his analysis have been very good.

This post has been edited by Chance: 03 January 2023 - 07:46 PM

[Werthead]

Inspiring the troops on the front.

Quote

The head of the Wagner Group of mercenaries watched impassively as his fallen fighters were stacked up in black body bags in a gloomy makeshift morgue in eastern Ukraine.

"Their contracts have finished. They will go home next week. They died heroically at the front."

"So long guys. Happy new year!" he said, according to a video published by his own media outlet.

In a separate video Prigozhin could be seen telling a group of injured fighters that they were expected to stay at the front even if they had lost limbs. "The fact that they have been left without legs, without arms, without their eyesight doesn't mean they can go home," Prigozhin said. "They can carry out duties that don't require both legs. They can work as sappers. If another mine explodes, their metal leg will be blown off and we'll weld another one one."

[Macros]

Surely that's not real and just lifted from 40k???

[worry]

Who doesn't love paramilitary groups run by mob bosses?

[Maark Abbott]

Macros, on 04 January 2023 - 09:57 PM, said:

Surely that's not real and just lifted from 40k???

Guardsman, your lack of faith means you must be blammed.

[Tsundoku]

Man, are "Russian Oligarchs" classified as a threatened species yet?

https://www.news.com...dbf78127b75ca9b

Top Russian dies in mysterious car crash
Magomed Abdulayev, 61, close to ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, was hospitalised but died from severe injuries in Makhachkala city on the Caspian Sea.

[QuickTidal]

Tsundoku, on 06 January 2023 - 02:09 PM, said:

Man, are "Russian Oligarchs" classified as a threatened species yet?

https://www.news.com...dbf78127b75ca9b

Top Russian dies in mysterious car crash
Magomed Abdulayev, 61, close to ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, was hospitalised but died from severe injuries in Makhachkala city on the Caspian Sea.

We've been watching JACK RYAN Season 3 on Prime and the plot for the season is: splinter group of loyalist Soviets who were involved in an abandoned war plan in the late 1960's, as old men now in 2022, are trying to foment war between NATO and Russia actual to reinstate/create a new Soviet Empire... and the sheer amount of Russians at every level who die in the first 4 eps alone from backstabbing/plotting is staggering. They very much go hard for "Russians don't care who they kill as long as they get where and what they want"...lol

[Werthead]

Germany is sending a second Patriot missile battery to Ukraine.

The US has also lifted its block on Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The US is sending 50 and France and Germany are sending a ton as well. The B-IFV packs a powerful bunch and theoretically it could destroy old Russian T-class tanks (probably pre-T90 and maybe even T-90s) in a pinch.

[Mentalist]

Tsundoku, on 06 January 2023 - 02:09 PM, said:

Man, are "Russian Oligarchs" classified as a threatened species yet?

https://www.news.com...dbf78127b75ca9b

Top Russian dies in mysterious car crash
Magomed Abdulayev, 61, close to ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, was hospitalised but died from severe injuries in Makhachkala city on the Caspian Sea.

We haven't had a single top-level death since Berezovsky hung himself over a decade ago. These are small fish.

Bradleys from the US and Marders from Germany will be a good get. French have promised a bunch of wheeled armored vehicles with 105 mm cannons that the European Weapons Convention considers "tanks".

About 100 IFVs in total. Zaluzhny asked for 700, but hey, it's a decent start.


Things aren't too hot in Soledar RN. I can only hope this is due to the UAF massing elsewhere right before the cold snap that's supposed to start tomorrow.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 07 January 2023 - 12:07 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'According to Rem, [...] most of the soldiers sent in suicidal assaults on Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut are "zeks," or convicts[...] "Mobiks [conscripts] are usually scared, and they scatter when they get shelled. Those guys are not scared," [...]

[...] "They're making progress, after all." Desensitized to violence and with nothing left to lose, the prisoners—many of whom are violent criminals including murderers and rapists—are considered by Ukrainian soldiers a tougher enemy than the average army conscript.

The Russian tactic of sending prison recruits to attack Ukrainian positions—allowing them to identify defenses for the artillery to pummel afterwards—has proven effective, though slow and deadly. [...] they have been slowly eroding Ukrainian defenses, and creeping ever closer to the eastern outskirts of the city.

[...] "They are—I cannot say fearless—but they have nothing to lose pretty much. So, they are attacking constantly and they've been killed in big quantities as well."'

Wagner's Desensitized Prison Fighters Keep Staggering into Bakhmut Like This Is a Zombie Apocalypse

Since Russian troops have been raping Ukrainian women, the convicted rapists may be motivated by expected (if not explicitly promised?) 'rewards'... and the rapists who are also serial killers might be even more motivated.

A zombie apocalypse in which the zombies are also raping people has generally been too terrible for horror afaik....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 08 January 2023 - 12:14 PM

[Mentalist]

So another Ramstein came and went. And aside from the UK Challengers, no Western tanks confirmed for Ukraine. There's a few hundred lighter armored vehicles (IFVs/ATCs) pledged, but too few tanks. Endless politicking between German parties and the various EU states.

The US package is big, but not as extensive as what was rumoured (no extra artillery pieces, and also the longer range (160 km) guided missile bombs seem to be absent (though in all fairness, I wouldn't want those announced until they start blowing stuff up).

Meanwhile, the orcs continue wasting lives N and especially S of Bakhmut, making gradual gains whenever our defenders start running out of ammo on wave 20+ or so. The goal is to cut off the main supply roads to Bakhmut to force the defenders to abandon the city.

It feels unlikely UAF will be able to make any push in early spring; which means we're in for another 6 months or so of hearing about gradual orc gains at tremendous expenses, until we are ready for another summer counteroffensive.

And that is somewhat demoralizing. Because that's 6 more months of anxiety and fearing a breakthrough, knowing that most likely nothing significant will happen in response.

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 20 January 2023 - 11:31 PM, said:

So another Ramstein came and went. And aside from the UK Challengers, no Western tanks confirmed for Ukraine. There's a few hundred lighter armored vehicles (IFVs/ATCs) pledged, but too few tanks. Endless politicking between German parties and the various EU states.

...

It feels unlikely UAF will be able to make any push in early spring; which means we're in for another 6 months or so of hearing about gradual orc gains at tremendous expenses, until we are ready for another summer counteroffensive.

Its a bit sad that it takes so long time both the Leopard, Challenger and Abrams are available in large enough quantities that sending at least a hundred each would be feasible even if it would be older models. Smarter would probably be to select one of them and send a few hundred and help the countries that send their tanks to make up the loss, like NATO has done with old soviet gear.

Still I think those IFV especially the Bradleys could surprise people, in the gulf war they beat up russian tanks with ease at ridiculous ranges.

An offensive with new equipment seems to be unlikely I mean whats the training time on a modern MBT probably months?

This post has been edited by Chance: 21 January 2023 - 09:12 AM

[Werthead]

The Leopard II is the key tank to send. It is available in impressive quantities (more than 2,000 in service or hopefully well-maintained storage), is rugged and easy to maintain on the battlefield, and was specifically designed to counter the T-90, let alone the de-mothballed T-72s and 64s (and even older!) making up the bulk of the Russian armored deployment in Ukraine. It's also relatively straightforward to use.

The Challenger is great but we literally don't have enough of them and there's no way to spool up construction of them quickly.

The Abrams is formidable, available in frankly ludicrous numbers (the US has literally thousands of them sitting in storage and has long-standing mass transportation programmes to move them to Europe in numbers if necessary) and overpowers anything in the Russian inventory (except maybe the T-14, assuming it actually works and if Russia had the balls to actually risk them in combat, which at the moment they do not), but it's also incredibly resource-intensive to run and use, and rather complex to operate.

I think there's also an escalatory tactic in play (the USA's term is "the frog gets used to being boiled because you turn up the heat so slowly"): the UK announces Challenger, which the Russians mock; then the Germans announce Leopard, which is on a par or slightly superior, so the Russians make a big thing of not caring, and the Americans announce Abrams, which is only moderately superior to the Leopard and Challenger so the Russians can't make a big thing about it, whilst if we just went straight to Abrams the Russians might abruptly realise the scale of the danger and fire off all their remaining cruise missiles at Kyiv and Ukraine's remaining energy infrastructure.

The problem is that the Russians do seem to be digging in hard along a lot of the front, there's the continuing threat (if remote for now) of a secondary offensive from Belarus or from the NE towards Kharkiv and there's this grinding advance in Donbas. There isn't a lot of time for western governments to dick around with game-playing. Poland, in particular, has got that memo and seems to be seriously considering sending a large chunk of their 240-odd Leopards to Ukraine even without Germany's approval.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 21 January 2023 - 10:58 PM, said:

The problem is that the Russians do seem to be digging in hard along a lot of the front, there's the continuing threat (if remote for now) of a secondary offensive from Belarus or from the NE towards Kharkiv and there's this grinding advance in Donbas. There isn't a lot of time for western governments to dick around with game-playing. Poland, in particular, has got that memo and seems to be seriously considering sending a large chunk of their 240-odd Leopards to Ukraine even without Germany's approval.

240 well supplied Leopards would basically end Russian ambitions in Ukraine for a good while, unless they are used up in offensive operations.

Something I think a lot of people aren't taking into account is that the soviet models of tanks are built on a different design-paradigm than western ones, they where never intended to go 1 vs 1 with western tanks but lots vs 1. There is 10-20 tons of additional gear in those western tanks (they are still quicker then the russian tanks as well) and anything in them is likely built with more expensive materials which make anything in them work better at a lower weight. At the cost of some complexity and a lot of expense. Its back to the late ww2 situation with Panthers vs Shermans or t-34's and you really want to be on the right side of such a fight. Only truly overwhelming numbers or air-support equals that equation. There is no competition between them and that is before you take into account that these days russian tanks very rarely work to specs or have decent tactics or decent training. I'd just guess that an armored brigade with Leopards, Challengers and especially Abrams would start equaling the numbers of ww2 tanker aces pretty soon.

This post has been edited by Chance: 22 January 2023 - 10:18 AM

[Primateus]

Honestly, the Leopard 2 ought to be plenty overpowering enough for anything the Russians might have. I'm not too familiar with the Challenger or the LeClerk to talk about them. But the Abrams is more logistics intensive than the Leo2, and you don't really get any advantage in firepower or armour for that logistical requirement to make sense. From a combat effectiveness point of view.

[Werthead]

The Challenger has absurdly tough armour, so in a straight fight should be able to survive longer than a Leopard. But the Leopard has a better gun (which fires standard NATO rounds, which the C2 rather stupidly does not) and can engage at longer range, and is also faster. Their relative effectiveness will vary based on the type of terrain they're fighting in.

Both are better than the Russian T-90 on just about every metric, but the big strength is combat information. Both tanks are able to process data and feed the tank commander realtime battlefield updates. The T-90 literally has a radio and that's about it. And the T-72s and 64s are even worse on that score.

In retrospect the Russians really needed an interim tank between the T-90 and their absurd T-14 (which I remain convinced only exists because some tank designer played way too much C&C: Red Alert in the 1990s and decided to just try to build one for real, no matter how impractical) to try to match the Abrams, Leopard and Challenger designs. That seems a bizarre oversight for probably the one country in the world who really still believed in massed armour charges.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 24 January 2023 - 12:30 AM

[Chance]

A fun fact about soviet era tanks is also that their gun is severly underpowered, to the degree that it will be hard for them to penetrate any armor on a western MBT. It might be able to at shorter ranges but thats fun when you have to close to 1km when the other guy frags your tank at 2+km (I think you have examples of Bradleys engaging T-72 at 4km with TOW's in the gulf war if I remember right.). Combined with the information systems that probably means tanks have to be used defensively in dense terrain or not at all. It also seems the T-14 uses a similarish gun so I wouldn't expect miracles if it was fielded, but of course no one knows its performance or if it even works.

Also good on especially the polish but also germany it seems leopards are on their way in some form soon.

This post has been edited by Chance: 24 January 2023 - 05:51 AM