[Sorrit]

Tennes, on 30 July 2012 - 10:25 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 27 July 2012 - 05:20 PM, said:

It is Day 2. 1 hour and 46 minutes remaining
13 Players still alive: Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Kalse, Kaschan, Liosan, Osseric, Rashan, Sheltatha Lore, Sorrit, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

7 votes to lynch, 7 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Liosan ( Sheltatha Lore, D'riss )
3 Votes for Tellan ( Tennes, Osseric, Atrahal )
3 Votes for Osseric ( Tellan, Eloth, Kalse )
1 Vote for Atrahal ( Liosan )

Players not voted: Kaschan, Rashan, Sorrit, Telas

So many turn arounds during the end of the day. Scum were definitely active. Tellan is sure thing to come up scum in my eyes almost 100% on him. Whereas Lio is now 50/50, Lio's vote on Osseric looked scummy, yet Tellan voted for Lio (could have been distancing) but when it came down to it removed and went for Osseric instead. I'm thinking Lio could be town and Kaschan is Tellan's partner. Too much negative play from Kaschan, not enough participation yet he is active at the right times. For me I get a good feeling from Sorrit, Atrahal and Telas. Kalse I am thinking could be town or symp. If Kaschan isn't Tellan's partner then it is Rashan. If Tellan is innocent then my scum dar is totally off this game and I deserve to get lynched and banned from playing the next few games. Somethings amiss anyway. So I have a bunch of posts below from yesterday (game day)

Still feel that way about Tellan?

[Sorrit]

Also, did you ever describe the light of your candle for me?

Should I slow down? I know you said you're working.

[Tennes]

Yes, vehemently. Nothing's changed. Yet he has people convinced and to be fair Eloth makes a good point about the finders doing a find or whatever. I didn't think of that, I can only go by what's been said on thread.

[Tennes]

Sorrit, on 31 July 2012 - 08:48 AM, said:

Also, did you ever describe the light of your candle for me?

Should I slow down? I know you said you're working.

I am a candle, my avatar. Lumiere's my name.

I was just referring to how dead it's been for me yesterday in a poetic way.

[Tennes]

I am around, I have my vote on Tellan but to get a lynch i'll remove and vote someone else. Let me have a look at the count.

[Sorrit]

Well, ansible isn't playing, or I'd meta the shit out of Eloth putting on some facade and fooling us. That don't mean Eloth ain't doing just that.

My last question in your very thorough vetting process, Tennes, is - Who are your top 3 suspects. Don't slip, I'm sort of leaning towards you being a possibly great ally. I don't looking like a fool. If your act was to snowball me, congrats.

[Tennes]

Path-Shaper, on 31 July 2012 - 02:59 AM, said:

1 Vote for Atrahal ( Liosan )
1 Vote for Rashan ( Sorrit )
1 Vote for Tellan ( Tennes )
1 Vote for Liosan ( Sheltatha Lore )

Players not voted: Atrahal, Eloth, Kalse, Kaschan, Rashan, Telas, Tellan

Remove vote

I am going to have a peruse through and make a decision.

[Tennes]

Sorrit, on 31 July 2012 - 08:54 AM, said:

Well, ansible isn't playing, or I'd meta the shit out of Eloth putting on some facade and fooling us. That don't mean Eloth ain't doing just that.

My last question in your very thorough vetting process, Tennes, is - Who are your top 3 suspects. Don't slip, I'm sort of leaning towards you being a possibly great ally. I don't looking like a fool. If your act was to snowball me, congrats.

Yeah but you could be scum as your very active towards day end, however I've agreed with a few of your posts so your not in my top 3.

Top 3 out of the top of my head is Tellan, Kaschan and Kalse. If you read up earlier I have Kalse as a symp.

Yet Kaschan might be struck off and replaced by Rashan.

I need to have a read up.

[Tennes]

How about yours Sorrit?

[Tennes]

Vote Rashan

He isn't quite the lowest poster but he does seem to be buddying up to me. I don't know if he wants my protection or defense.

@Sorrit can you get both lynch trains up please?

[Rashan]

Tennes, on 31 July 2012 - 09:09 AM, said:

Vote Rashan

He isn't quite the lowest poster but he does seem to be buddying up to me. I don't know if he wants my protection or defense.

@Sorrit can you get both lynch trains up please?

I don't want either actually. I wanted to know why Sorrit was voting for you and I explained why I disagreed. I find it odd that something like that makes you uncomfortable.

[Sorrit]

I'd say we have about 3 hours, right? Or am I counting wrong?

Not looking good. We need a Lynch. 11 living players.
Possibly 3 scum, if there ever was a symp.
Possible 8 town - WCS.

Scenario Day 3 with Lynch - 9 players, unless we have a healer, and he gets lucky.
A) Town lynched - WCS now 3 scum 6 town - .50 value
B)Scum lynched - WCS now 2 scum 7 town - .29 value

Scenario Day 3 NO lynch - same - 10 players left.
WCS - 3 scum 7 town - .42 value.

To get to the lowest value of .29, we risk lynching town and landing at .50
No lynch gives us zero percent chance of lynching scum, leaving us at .42, not that much worse than taking a shot and hitting a town - which is the .50

Also: with 11 live players, our chance of lynching scum, assuming possible symp still alive, is .27
Yet scum has 100 percent chance of killing town, barring lucky and possible healer.

Not lynching leaves scum with the same odds to kill a town, while our chance to ii scum falls to zero.
If you want to get technical, I didn't factor in the variance attributed to scum killing the WCS possible symp.

Summary - vote someone, knuckleheads.

[Rashan]

Sorrit, on 31 July 2012 - 09:12 AM, said:

I'd say we have about 3 hours, right? Or am I counting wrong?

Not looking good. We need a Lynch. 11 living players.
Possibly 3 scum, if there ever was a symp.
Possible 8 town - WCS.

Scenario Day 3 with Lynch - 9 players, unless we have a healer, and he gets lucky.
A) Town lynched - WCS now 3 scum 6 town - .50 value
B)Scum lynched - WCS now 2 scum 7 town - .29 value

Scenario Day 3 NO lynch - same - 10 players left.
WCS - 3 scum 7 town - .42 value.

To get to the lowest value of .29, we risk lynching town and landing at .50
No lynch gives us zero percent chance of lynching scum, leaving us at .42, not that much worse than taking a shot and hitting a town - which is the .50

Also: with 11 live players, our chance of lynching scum, assuming possible symp still alive, is .27
Yet scum has 100 percent chance of killing town, barring lucky and possible healer.

Not lynching leaves scum with the same odds to kill a town, while our chance to ii scum falls to zero.
If you want to get technical, I didn't factor in the variance attributed to scum killing the WCS possible symp.

Summary - vote someone, knuckleheads.

Just under three hours. UK people should be waking up soon though.

[Sorrit]

Tennes, on 31 July 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

How about yours Sorrit?

You, SL, and Telas.

[Sorrit]

Although, until I find more on you, I'll have to treat you as a great ally. If your lynch came up, I'd vote you. Until or unless it ever does, math says trust you. With an outspoken town ally, my chances double.

[Tennes]

Rashan, on 31 July 2012 - 09:12 AM, said:

Tennes, on 31 July 2012 - 09:09 AM, said:

Vote Rashan

He isn't quite the lowest poster but he does seem to be buddying up to me. I don't know if he wants my protection or defense.

@Sorrit can you get both lynch trains up please?

I don't want either actually. I wanted to know why Sorrit was voting for you and I explained why I disagreed. I find it odd that something like that makes you uncomfortable.

It isn't only that, I combine it with when you have received votes ie Sorrit's now and Liosan's on day one you appeared and refuted the case.

[Sorrit]

Sorry Rashan, my vote stays for now. If I have to risk losing a townie, I'd rather it be a lower poster, my fine feathered friend.

[Tennes]

Sorrit, on 31 July 2012 - 09:17 AM, said:

Although, until I find more on you, I'll have to treat you as a great ally. If your lynch came up, I'd vote you. Until or unless it ever does, math says trust you. With an outspoken town ally, my chances double.

Fair enough. These last two posts makes me more comfortable towards you being town.

[Tennes]

Sorrit, on 31 July 2012 - 09:15 AM, said:

Tennes, on 31 July 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

How about yours Sorrit?

You, SL, and Telas.

Interesting you act a little like a symp and exclude Tellan and Lio from your post.

[Sorrit]

Tennes, on 31 July 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

Rashan, on 31 July 2012 - 09:12 AM, said:

Tennes, on 31 July 2012 - 09:09 AM, said:

Vote Rashan

He isn't quite the lowest poster but he does seem to be buddying up to me. I don't know if he wants my protection or defense.

@Sorrit can you get both lynch trains up please?

I don't want either actually. I wanted to know why Sorrit was voting for you and I explained why I disagreed. I find it odd that something like that makes you uncomfortable.

It isn't only that, I combine it with when you have received votes ie Sorrit's now and Liosan's on day one you appeared and refuted the case.

Plus Rashan came on late the night PS was POSSIBLY waiting on NAs. To be fair, I was also on, yet had been for hours. Others were Tennes, Atrahal, Eloth, and SL. SL has been sporadic in his logins, it could be him that MAY have not put a NA in. It's just a theory. We could WIFOM that whoever forgot their NA did NOT post again that late. I, myself, have hope for slip ups. WIFOM gets me nowhere.