[Ampelas]

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Explain it away how you want. I don't think most people play assuming everyone is scum. I don't. But look back at the way you worded that. It certainly seems to me as if you know he would cf inno. You could have thrown a "most likely" in there and it wouldn't have been suspicious. But you didn't, and I believe it to be a mindset-of-a-killer slip.

I don't disagree with the way you say people spout off too much on thread. It DOES alert the player to play better, if they are scum and you don't pursue it. But that's about the only useful thing you've said so far.

Well I do belive that he's inno, and I dare you to find a game where a day 1 lynch that was so poorly reasoned as this game's Kaschan train has actually resulted in a scum cf... given that, it's not unusual (or even uncommon) to speak of a random day 1 lynch as likely to be a townie.

[Ampelas]

Sorrit, on 19 July 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:

Kaschan, on 19 July 2012 - 04:31 PM, said:

Sorrit, trying to be snippy and making jokes when we're looking for our scum does nothing but muddy the waters. If you're actually town, you'll be forthright / transparent about your reasoning so that people can follow your logic.

But... If you scroll up... I gave my reasoning just a couple hours ago....

Ha, I had and saw what I thought was you reasoning NOT against Sil... double checked now and it was a post by Fener, not you. Either your avatars are too similar or I need more coffee

[Kaschan]

Not to derail the discussion at hand, but seeing this just pisses me off. Korbas has the lowest posts among anyone still in the game. He has contributed ZERO content, only told us about his feelings on cases (I like this case / I don't like this case) and made votes. He was involved in the "death threat" signaling thing we looked at for a bit on day 1, and however tenuous such a connection might be, it does connect him to Karosis and Ampelas. Karosis was responsible for laying down suspicion on me early in day 1, when Anthras had just pointed out he saw me naked--and Karosis took Anthras at his word, voted for me to get some discussion going (not necessarily scummy), then quickly fell back off the radar afterward. Karosis was a non-factor on day 2. Meanwhile, Ampelas is currently under suspicion, and he was very insistent on getting Anthras lynched. There's also that bit of a possible slip that someone caught.


If these 3 turn out to be the scum, then they've done a pretty good job (almost) of staying under the radar while encouraging suspicion of other people.

But seriously, look at Korbas' posts. He's done JACK SHIT, and then he makes that "you know, it's tough being a symp" comment! Definitely makes me want to take a closer look--only there isn't any fucking content to look at after 2 days of play.

[Kaschan]

Sorrit, on 19 July 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:

Kaschan, on 19 July 2012 - 04:31 PM, said:

Sorrit, trying to be snippy and making jokes when we're looking for our scum does nothing but muddy the waters. If you're actually town, you'll be forthright / transparent about your reasoning so that people can follow your logic.

But... If you scroll up... I gave my reasoning just a couple hours ago....

Yeah, and I found it. But if I hadn't remembered you were talking about silanah before, my gut reaction to the post was "wtf is this??"

[Ampelas]

Alrighty folks, just about done figuring out a case I'm going to post. Now let's just go over the groundrules one last time for those who may not be familiar with this whole "case" thing in mafia:

• You do not have to react to it immediately. Take your time.
• Even if I cast you in a poor light as part of my reasoning, you do not need to defend yourself unless you are the case's "target" - if people agree with the case the target will be lynched and not you, so you can wait and see if I'm actually right when we get the CF before you go crazy defending yourself - it might all turn out to be nothing/wrong (most cases do)
• Let the target defend themself

[Ampelas]

Kaschan, on 19 July 2012 - 04:42 PM, said:

Not to derail the discussion at hand, but seeing this just pisses me off. Korbas has the lowest posts among anyone still in the game. He has contributed ZERO content, only told us about his feelings on cases (I like this case / I don't like this case) and made votes. He was involved in the "death threat" signaling thing we looked at for a bit on day 1, and however tenuous such a connection might be, it does connect him to Karosis and Ampelas. Karosis was responsible for laying down suspicion on me early in day 1, when Anthras had just pointed out he saw me naked--and Karosis took Anthras at his word, voted for me to get some discussion going (not necessarily scummy), then quickly fell back off the radar afterward. Karosis was a non-factor on day 2. Meanwhile, Ampelas is currently under suspicion, and he was very insistent on getting Anthras lynched. There's also that bit of a possible slip that someone caught.


If these 3 turn out to be the scum, then they've done a pretty good job (almost) of staying under the radar while encouraging suspicion of other people.

But seriously, look at Korbas' posts. He's done JACK SHIT, and then he makes that "you know, it's tough being a symp" comment! Definitely makes me want to take a closer look--only there isn't any fucking content to look at after 2 days of play.

There's a mysterious Shaolin technique I've heard rumours about called "lynching the low-poster(s)"...

[Sorrit]

Ampelas said:

1342716356[/url]' post='979926']
Alrighty folks, just about done figuring out a case I'm going to post. Now let's just go over the groundrules one last time for those who may not be familiar with this whole "case" thing in mafia:

• You do not have to react to it immediately. Take your time.
• Even if I cast you in a poor light as part of my reasoning, you do not need to defend yourself unless you are the case's "target" - if people agree with the case the target will be lynched and not you, so you can wait and see if I'm actually right when we get the CF before you go crazy defending yourself - it might all turn out to be nothing/wrong (most cases do)
• Let the target defend themself

If you do not follow THESE RULES.....

No vote for you!! One year!

[Korvalain]

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Explain it away how you want. I don't think most people play assuming everyone is scum. I don't. But look back at the way you worded that. It certainly seems to me as if you know he would cf inno. You could have thrown a "most likely" in there and it wouldn't have been suspicious. But you didn't, and I believe it to be a mindset-of-a-killer slip.

I don't disagree with the way you say people spout off too much on thread. It DOES alert the player to play better, if they are scum and you don't pursue it. But that's about the only useful thing you've said so far.

Well I do belive that he's inno, and I dare you to find a game where a day 1 lynch that was so poorly reasoned as this game's Kaschan train has actually resulted in a scum cf... given that, it's not unusual (or even uncommon) to speak of a random day 1 lynch as likely to be a townie.

The last game I played in, we didn't lynch on day 1 because people said the same thing you were saying. This is arkham city game.

The person who had the highest train was one of three cult leaders.
The person who I pushed the entire day was the motherfucking batman.

One of the three biggest baddies, and THE biggest baddie.

[Kaschan]

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:47 PM, said:

There's a mysterious Shaolin technique I've heard rumours about called "lynching the low-poster(s)"...

It's an option I'd definitely be okay with if we can't settle on a stronger case. Silanah doesn't seemed to have made any slips that I've found, so in the light of anthras' town cf it'd be rash to go ahead and lynch silanah as well without knowing for sure anthras was our symp.

However, it looks like you're under the microscope a bit right now, and though you think I'm inno I can't say the same for you.

[Silanah]

Firstly, Ampelas, I said nothing about you saying a no lynch was acceptable as a result for Day 2, I said you spent the first two days arguing that a no lynch was acceptable. I see how you misconstrued it to mean what you thought I meant, but what I meant is that even into Day 2 you were defending your 'no lynch is acceptable' argument, as demonstrated in your below post, which was from Day 2.

Ampelas, on 18 July 2012 - 02:24 PM, said:

Anthras, on 18 July 2012 - 09:19 AM, said:

First of all go read through the thread you will find that although Ampelas and Kaschan are on at the same time a lot they do not interact with each other except for once which i've quoted below.

Ampelas does a good job of his catch up, he doesn't even stick around until the day times out. He even mentions that a no lynch is good.

Kaschan, on 17 July 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 July 2012 - 03:16 PM, said:

Ok, I see it? What about it?

That's why the exchange is being described as a joke-spat and potentially a signal.

Ampelas, on 17 July 2012 - 04:07 PM, said:

Kaschan, on 17 July 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 July 2012 - 03:16 PM, said:

Ok, I see it? What about it?

That's why the exchange is being described as a joke-spat and potentially a signal.

Ah, ok.

Their only interaction on thread. Plenty behind scenes I'm guessing.

Ampelas, on 17 July 2012 - 04:31 PM, said:

Silanah, on 17 July 2012 - 03:38 PM, said:

Hour and a half till lynch, I smell a no-lynch, and that makes me sad!

I am around, so will move my vote if necessary to get a lynch, but for now I still like Karosis best.

There's no problem with a no-lynch. Day 1 lynches are generall good because they provide information for day 2, but if it's not going to happen, there's no reason to force it. A dozen votes suddenly piling on at the last second just to have a lynch doesn't get any extra info. So let it time-out, I say, at this point we won't get anything more.

I disagree because we have wasted a day. We would know if Kaschan was a killer or not. That is huge information. Now we have to go through today with the same information we had yesterday.



If i'm wrong i'm wrong but this feels right.

"We would know if Kaschan was a killer or not. " -> Duh. But that applies to everyone? So we should just lynch a random person every day based on nothing, everyone just piles their votes on without comment, and then the next day we'll know if they were a killer or not?! Hurray! That will win us the game for sure!


"Now we have to go through today with the same information we had yesterday." -> A whole bunch of people dropping votes at the end just for a lynch, like this:

Silanah, on 17 July 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

Alright, so I will jump on the Kaschan train. I don't hate Atrahal's case, it's about as strong as any of the other cases, and I am very much interested in getting a lynch today. It's the only other train that I can jump on at the moment.

remove vote
vote Kaschan

does not provide much information. And even without the lynch, we got those drop votes that you can now be analyzed, anyways. Estimated 1-in-7 odds are not good enough to lynch on just for lynch's sake, there should always be reasoning behind it. (Today we can pick a random person and have 1-in-6 odds they'll be scum if we lynch them! Tomorrow it will probably be 1-in-5 odds! See why this argument was stupid?)

@Kaschan - I agree with you re: Korbas, but I am weary of voting off low-posters just for the sake of their low-posting. Korbas' content has been slim to none, and if he's actually a symp, he's not doing a very good job, as he hasn't really played the game much at all. That being said, I am suspicious of him as a symp, but I won't vote for a symp, they don't need to be dead for town to win.

All of that being said, we still don't even know for sure if there IS a symp. We haven't hit any roled town yet, so it could very well be a 2 killers and a bunch of RIs style game. I'm not saying we should discount the idea that there is a symp, I think it's likely there is one, but I don't think we should just assume it, at least not until we figure out for sure if there are roled town.

[Kaschan]

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Explain it away how you want. I don't think most people play assuming everyone is scum. I don't. But look back at the way you worded that. It certainly seems to me as if you know he would cf inno. You could have thrown a "most likely" in there and it wouldn't have been suspicious. But you didn't, and I believe it to be a mindset-of-a-killer slip.

I don't disagree with the way you say people spout off too much on thread. It DOES alert the player to play better, if they are scum and you don't pursue it. But that's about the only useful thing you've said so far.

Well I do belive that he's inno, and I dare you to find a game where a day 1 lynch that was so poorly reasoned as this game's Kaschan train has actually resulted in a scum cf... given that, it's not unusual (or even uncommon) to speak of a random day 1 lynch as likely to be a townie.

The last game I played in, we didn't lynch on day 1 because people said the same thing you were saying. This is arkham city game.

The person who had the highest train was one of three cult leaders.
The person who I pushed the entire day was the motherfucking batman.

One of the three biggest baddies, and THE biggest baddie.

I wasn't in that game, but I'm sure the case was more substantial than "We saw you lurking while browsing naked, and neither you nor this other guy were happy about it, so you must be master and symp."

[Silanah]

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Explain it away how you want. I don't think most people play assuming everyone is scum. I don't. But look back at the way you worded that. It certainly seems to me as if you know he would cf inno. You could have thrown a "most likely" in there and it wouldn't have been suspicious. But you didn't, and I believe it to be a mindset-of-a-killer slip.

I don't disagree with the way you say people spout off too much on thread. It DOES alert the player to play better, if they are scum and you don't pursue it. But that's about the only useful thing you've said so far.

Well I do belive that he's inno, and I dare you to find a game where a day 1 lynch that was so poorly reasoned as this game's Kaschan train has actually resulted in a scum cf... given that, it's not unusual (or even uncommon) to speak of a random day 1 lynch as likely to be a townie.

The last game I played in, we didn't lynch on day 1 because people said the same thing you were saying. This is arkham city game.

The person who had the highest train was one of three cult leaders.
The person who I pushed the entire day was the motherfucking batman.

One of the three biggest baddies, and THE biggest baddie.

Excellent memory skills - I was in the Batman game and I completely forgot about that. So there ya go Amp. You're so full of shit it stinks!

[Silanah]

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:47 PM, said:

There's a mysterious Shaolin technique I've heard rumours about called "lynching the low-poster(s)"...

Anything to take the heat off you, eh Amp?

[Kaschan]

Silanah, on 19 July 2012 - 04:52 PM, said:

@Kaschan - I agree with you re: Korbas, but I am weary of voting off low-posters just for the sake of their low-posting. Korbas' content has been slim to none, and if he's actually a symp, he's not doing a very good job, as he hasn't really played the game much at all. That being said, I am suspicious of him as a symp, but I won't vote for a symp, they don't need to be dead for town to win.

All of that being said, we still don't even know for sure if there IS a symp. We haven't hit any roled town yet, so it could very well be a 2 killers and a bunch of RIs style game. I'm not saying we should discount the idea that there is a symp, I think it's likely there is one, but I don't think we should just assume it, at least not until we figure out for sure if there are roled town.

If you were the killer, wouldn't you like to know


But we might not even know on the CF / scene whether the person was roled. P-S might hide clues in scenes for a high TMDI game but I don't think that'd be the case for this game.

[Ampelas]

Silanah, on 19 July 2012 - 04:52 PM, said:

Firstly, Ampelas, I said nothing about you saying a no lynch was acceptable as a result for Day 2, I said you spent the first two days arguing that a no lynch was acceptable. I see how you misconstrued it to mean what you thought I meant, but what I meant is that even into Day 2 you were defending your 'no lynch is acceptable' argument, as demonstrated in your below post, which was from Day 2.

Ok, well please state it more clearly next time, because it looked a lot like strawmanning.

So yes, on both day 1 and day 2 (and now day 3) I still hold that for the circumstances we were in on day 1, not lynching was acceptable. We didn't lynch, but we still got a train of info to analyze. Having one or two more "We need a lynch! Vote Kaschan" posts would not have given us anything extra. Yes, obviously we didn't get Kaschan's CF, but we don't have anyone else alive's CF, either. The town cannot depend on CFs for information, only for confirmation.

and speaking of that lynch train...

[Ampelas]

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Explain it away how you want. I don't think most people play assuming everyone is scum. I don't. But look back at the way you worded that. It certainly seems to me as if you know he would cf inno. You could have thrown a "most likely" in there and it wouldn't have been suspicious. But you didn't, and I believe it to be a mindset-of-a-killer slip.

I don't disagree with the way you say people spout off too much on thread. It DOES alert the player to play better, if they are scum and you don't pursue it. But that's about the only useful thing you've said so far.

Well I do belive that he's inno, and I dare you to find a game where a day 1 lynch that was so poorly reasoned as this game's Kaschan train has actually resulted in a scum cf... given that, it's not unusual (or even uncommon) to speak of a random day 1 lynch as likely to be a townie.

The last game I played in, we didn't lynch on day 1 because people said the same thing you were saying. This is arkham city game.

The person who had the highest train was one of three cult leaders.
The person who I pushed the entire day was the motherfucking batman.

One of the three biggest baddies, and THE biggest baddie.

I do not consider a 4-cult faction game with a 4x-respawning predator to be a good indicator of town v scum M&P strategy, but whatever floats your boat...

[Korvalain]

The case against the cult leader was just as shite, if I remember. And the case against the batman was based solely on a slipup similar to the one I believe you made.

[Ampelas]

Ampelas' case on Karosis (you can abbr. it as ACK if you want):


This case revolves around events right before day 1 timed out. Here is the vote count a couple hours before time-out:

Path-Shaper, on 17 July 2012 - 03:08 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 2 hours and 37 minutes remaining

14 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, Fener, Kalse, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorrit, Spite

8 votes to lynch, 7 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Ampelas ( Korbas )
1 Vote for Kaschan ( Anthras )
2 Vote for Silanah ( Sorrit, Sheltatha Lore )
2 Votes for Karosis ( Korvalain, Silanah )
1 Vote for Korbas ( Anomandaris )
1 vote for Anthras ( Ampelas )

Players not voted: Atrahal, Fener, Kalse, Karosis, Kaschan, Spite

---<>----

Whaitaminnit, that taim cannae be reit, reit?

At this point, there is not much time left and people are already in that mood of "we need a lynch, vote for anyone with a half-decent reason". Note that Silanah and Karosis both have 2 votes already.

As we've all seen before, the most likely outcome at this point is that votes pile-up on either Silanah or Karosis, who at this point have the most votes so far, and one of them gets lynched. Possibly not enough people are online and they only almost get lynched, in which case they'll have to fight a wave of suspicion in later days that they avoided being lynched because they are scum.

That's the usual day 1 lynch as we are all familiar with it.



But an odd thing happened this time. People online are their usual ready to vote anyone mood, ie:

Silanah, on 17 July 2012 - 03:38 PM, said:

Hour and a half till lynch, I smell a no-lynch, and that makes me sad!

I am around, so will move my vote if necessary to get a lynch, but for now I still like Karosis best.

Korvalain, on 17 July 2012 - 03:47 PM, said:

Willing to switch to anyone to get a lynch.

Side note, squatz do them thinkymeatz wonders

Atrahal, on the other hand, is still doing lots of thinking and strategizing and such, and that's fine:

Atrahal, on 17 July 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

So what I get with the last couple pages it that we have three choices when aiming for scum, at least, three options that have been mentioned already.

One choice being low posters. Scum often lay low, especially if they aren't called out. If they are lurking when these 'cases' are made against them, it usually prompts a response. If too defensive, it's possible that we got a scum.

Second option is to look for sympage. I can't recall the player names (I'll reread the thread once again and get the people straight after breakfast). This is a possible case, and doesn't necessarily rely on posting time comparisons, which are occasionally accurate but more often than not a dangerous proposition early game.

Third option is signalling. I suppose this is possible, but there is quite a bit of spam to sift through on the first few pages, and most seems meaningless.

On day one I'm more inclined to favour the symp option. Signalling cases are weak day one, but I'm sure they will become more prevalent, and undoubtedly more probable, as the game progresses. Low posters. well, scum often try to stay off the radar, but there were a few mentions of low posting players during the sign up so I'm not necessarily ready to vote a low poster at this point of the game. Low posting only becomes more suspicious as the game goes on, so we'll keep our eyes open I'm sure.

We have two hours so I'm going to go through the last couple pages of posts again and throw down a vote.

So he lists there the reasons he feels are legit to vote based on, and he says he'll go look through the last few pages. His summary of the last few pages is quite large, so I won't re-post it all here but you can see it in post 244.

In post 244, he notes a few times Korvalain accusing people of symp-signalling that Atrahal feels are baseless. Fine. Then Atrahal votes:

Atrahal, on 17 July 2012 - 04:16 PM, said:

At this point I'm going to vote for Kaschan. Korvalain seems to be overtly deflecting. Might not be the strongest case, but for day one it seems the most obvious route.

vote Kaschan

He inserts that Korv is deflecting, but the logic for the actual Kaschan vote is that "it seems the most obvious"? How is it obvious?

The only things Atrahal has mentioned so far about Kaschan are (both from post 244):

1. "Kaschan responded quickly after being called out, and pretty defensively. definitely a stronger reaction than most others we've seen by this point, and something that has a little more substance."

and

2. [about Anthras' assertion that Korv voting Fener is distracting from Kaschan] "Could be deflection, but then 'Fener as scum' joke goes back a bit, and this is day one we're talking about. At this point I thought the Fener vote was a joke vote"


Number 2 is actually defending Kaschan, so the sole reason Atrahal seems to have for voting Kaschan is that he had "a stronger reaction than most others we've seen by this point", with "this point" being still on Day 1.


That is a really, really weak case. It'd be fine for mid-day 1, or even early day 2, but this is day 1 with 2 hours left. Atrahal, who feels the need to vote, puts a vote on someone who is NOT one of the two players with the larger lynch train at the end of day 1, and gives only the barest reasoning for why. Nor is there any explantion of why he is choosing not to vote Sil or Karosis.

And by god does it work.

Immediately, Sil and Korv follow suit, removing their votes from Karosis to join the new Kaschan train:

Silanah, on 17 July 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

Alright, so I will jump on the Kaschan train. I don't hate Atrahal's case, it's about as strong as any of the other cases, and I am very much interested in getting a lynch today. It's the only other train that I can jump on at the moment.

remove vote
vote Kaschan

Korvalain, on 17 July 2012 - 04:27 PM, said:

Atrahal, you bitch.

Your poor interpretation of my posts makes me sad inside.

My Karosis vote was based on that post, which brings killing up out of nowhere. My point being that he is either putting pressure on or pushing buttons, signaling to who he knows is a killer (poorly, I might add) or trying to stir controversy Korbas's way as scum.

Shit. I just remembered this is M&P. Does this mean no roled town? My basis was that his actions made him unlikely to be roled town, and therefore a better lynch than a rando.

Either way, Kaschan has majority now, so

remove vote

Vote kaschan

Fener disagrees and votes Anthras, Karosis comes back and votes Kaschan himself, Fener switches and we have a very clear Kaschan train, the momentum of which all began with that shitty vote by Atrahal.

Final vote count:

Path-Shaper, on 17 July 2012 - 05:17 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 5 minutes remaining

14 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, Fener, Kalse, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorrit, Spite

8 votes to lynch, 7 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Korbas ( Anomandaris )
1 Vote for Ampelas ( Korbas )
6 Votes for Kaschan ( Anthras, Atrahal, Silanah, Korvalain, Karosis, Fener )
2 Votes for Anthras ( Ampelas, Kaschan )
1 Vote for Silanah ( Sheltatha Lore )

Players not voted: Kalse, Sorrit, Spite

So there's three suspicious parts here: Atrahal's bad reasoning for an unusual vote when Karosis was a more likely lynch so close to the end of day 1, and Sil and Korv each switching so rapidly off Karosis without good reasoning.

I believe that Karosis is a killer, and amongst Sil, Korv and Atrahal are either another killer, a symp, or both. In Atrahal's case, the Kaschan vote would be deflecting to avoid a possible end-of-day pile-on, and in Sil or Korv's case it'd be a quick switch to redirect the pile-on.

In any case, I believe Karosis is therefore a killer.

Vote Karosis

[Ampelas]

Phew, okay now that that is posted I gotta run to a meeting, so I'll be off for about an hour, which is good as it it'll let that simmer for a bit.

[Korvalain]

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:56 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 19 July 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 19 July 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Explain it away how you want. I don't think most people play assuming everyone is scum. I don't. But look back at the way you worded that. It certainly seems to me as if you know he would cf inno. You could have thrown a "most likely" in there and it wouldn't have been suspicious. But you didn't, and I believe it to be a mindset-of-a-killer slip.

I don't disagree with the way you say people spout off too much on thread. It DOES alert the player to play better, if they are scum and you don't pursue it. But that's about the only useful thing you've said so far.

Well I do belive that he's inno, and I dare you to find a game where a day 1 lynch that was so poorly reasoned as this game's Kaschan train has actually resulted in a scum cf... given that, it's not unusual (or even uncommon) to speak of a random day 1 lynch as likely to be a townie.

The last game I played in, we didn't lynch on day 1 because people said the same thing you were saying. This is arkham city game.

The person who had the highest train was one of three cult leaders.
The person who I pushed the entire day was the motherfucking batman.

One of the three biggest baddies, and THE biggest baddie.

I do not consider a 4-cult faction game with a 4x-respawning predator to be a good indicator of town v scum M&P strategy, but whatever floats your boat...

Not strategy, but dumb luck and slipups, sure.

In that game and this, there were most likely a 20% chance of lynching scum randomly on day 1. 20% is not horrible