Mafia 89 (Espers) - The Spectre Thread - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 89 (Espers) - The Spectre Thread

#641 Kalse

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 04:32 PM

Osseric, on 11 July 2012 - 04:25 PM, said:

Kalse, on 11 July 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

Kaschan, on 10 July 2012 - 03:33 AM, said:

So let's see, this is a chart of the ebb and flow of cult. I think the first day, only townies died. Day 2 one of the three who died was scum (wasn't me, probably wasn't Mr. Ectoplasm who just arrived on the scene, therefore it was our current Fener who was the cultist). Day 3, two scum had to be killed. That means 2 of the 3 added to SH are scum. And I'm not sure who...

The START: 2 cult (?)

The Not-So-Master Male Assassin, Mekin Zikulka aka Fener and FM [DEAD]
Poor Theftian Girl, Amee Najayin aka Eloth [DEAD]
Streaky haired Mage of Life and Death, Luvaya Fiodethel aka Kalse [DEAD]
Espers released, Cult can now begin recruiting

End of Day ONE: 2 cult
Night time: + 1 cult = 3 cult

Fenn Female, ____ aka Serc [DEAD] ===> now Fener
Scholar, Iddil Miratus aka Kaschan [DEAD]
Ectoplasmic Lich, Etyno aka Silanah/Thyrillan [DEAD]

-1 cult

End of Day TWO: 2 cult
Night time: + 1 cult = 3 cult

Scarred Capustanii Man, _____ aka Barghast [DEAD] ===> now Serc
Fistian Sexy Lady, Lily Garamonde aka Anomandaris [DEAD]
Heap of Rags with Deck and Tiles, Pang aka Osseric [DEAD]

- 2 cult

End of Day 3: 1 cult
Night time: +1 cult = 2 cult

UNKNOWN ===> now Barghast

Edit: Timing off on FM kills. Fixed

Notice the count here. Kaschan lives through night 1, says there are 2 scum alive after day 1 lynch. If I were scum, that would mean scum started with THREE cult members. The OP emphatically says that the cult start at an "extreme numerical disadvantage". 3/15 is not an extreme numerical disadvantage. Either Kasch is lying about the numbers or I can't be scum.

so you are saying extreme numerical disadvantage means exactly a disadvantage of 7.5to1 or more?

I'm saying a 1/5 or 1/4 ratio of scum/town is not unusual for a basic M&P game. D'rek went out of her way to make a point that the scum/town ratio was much lower than normal. 1/15 would be much lower than normal. Even 2/15, but I suspect it was a single cultist at the beginning. Regardless, do the math, do the find - so we can move on.

#642 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:05 PM

Ah, a nice real lunch break.

Hopefully you all survived my head's explosion yesterday and all the resulting splatter.

So what do we think about the puppy eyes? I mean, if they are indeed real, Rashan could not be cult for the first 4 days of the game. If he is lying, then he would have to have been recruited after the first day since Ano found him inno on day 1. And the thing that gets me is this:

Day One: 2-3 cult?

Post First Lynch: 2 cult

Day two: 2-3 cult?
FM: CF comes back scum

Post Second Lynch: 2 cult

Day three: 2-3 cult
FM: CF comes back scum
Rashan Reveals Puppy Eyes

Post Third Lynch: 1 cult

Day four: 1-2 cult

Post Fourth Lynch: 1 cult

Day five: 1-2 cult

So where along this time line does Rashan fit in? I have marked red as where according to Ano, Rashan could not have been scum. If Rashan is being honest, then he couldn't have been recruited until last night. If Rashan is being dishonest, he had to have been recruited on Night 2. None of this proves his innocence or scumminess, but it gives me pause. Would he have revealed right after having been recruited when he had no pressure on him? Was he really thinking that far ahead into the game? And why only 3 puppy eyes? Why not four, or five, or one?

I guess the money question is: Did anyone attempt a NA on Rashan on either night one or night two that failed?

#643 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:17 PM

Kalse, there are possibly 2 cult down there. I think my conversation with Brujah makes Ano (Lily) somewhat, but not entirely, unsuspicious.

We also have Eloth (Amee) down there again, who I think we have trusted like we trust you, but has had at least 1 opportunity to get recruited right before he rejoined us in SH.

And finally, Barghast (The Capustanii man) back on the main thread as Ruse, who is potentially cult if Brujah is not scum himself.

We don't know yet who Tennes is, correct?

Among the remaining players, Telas, D'riss, Rashan, Tellan, we suspect at least 1 of them is scum (if the 1 cult I saw wasn't a newly recruited Lily). One of these four is Kalse's lover (not Rashan). We still don't have confirmation on the identity of D'riss or Telas (one is purple haired the other is Jheck). And finally, Tellan is our white robed mage.

D'riss really has come out of the woodwork, and his furious attack on Rashan is really suspicious. I would almost wonder if they were in cahoots and spamming up the thread, but probably not. Meanwhile, Telas has received very little pressure, and I'm not sure why (is it just because your lover said he's ok Kalse)?

#644 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:19 PM

WCS, there a total of 6-7 cultists between these threads. Unless recruitments were stopped. And we don't know who is bringing back the dead. Cult, town or neutral.

#645 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:27 PM

Path-Shaper, on 11 July 2012 - 03:35 PM, said:

It is Day 5. 22 hours and 47 minutes remaining
8 Players still alive: D'riss, Emurlahn, Rashan, Ruse, Sheltatha Lore, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

8 votes to lynch.

3 Votes for Tellan ( Sheltatha Lore, Emurlahn, Fener )
2 Votes for Rashan ( D'riss, Kalse )
2 Votes for D'riss ( Telas, Rashan )

The other question I have, is who to trust. Kalse trusts D'riss, or someone who agrees with D'riss. Telas and Rashan, neither of whom have been in SH, both are going after D'riss. And those just coming from SH, SL and Emur, are pushing on Tellan (which makes sense after killing Liosan and moving to the next unknown).

But of these 3, no one is voting for Telas. Why?

#646 Kalse

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:34 PM

Kaschan, on 11 July 2012 - 05:27 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 11 July 2012 - 03:35 PM, said:

My guess is that they want to keep their votes quiet until they can either hammer someone or just to keep info about their alignment secret. Me voting for Rashan puts me clearly on one side of things, while the other votes put Telas and Rashan on another side. They want to remain anonymous, and everyone is letting them.

#647 Kalse

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:35 PM

Kaschan, on 11 July 2012 - 05:17 PM, said:

Read above, I've confirmed the last two identities.

#648 Kalse

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:37 PM

Kaschan, on 11 July 2012 - 05:05 PM, said:

His reveal may be completely true - but whose to say that he used it every night? He could have been recruited night 1 because he was going to save his ability, or any other night for that matter. Just because he says he used them doesn't mean he did.

#649 Kalse

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:37 PM

Also, my lover agrees that the FM was hiding down here to keep scum numbers down. So, another wrench in the mix. Too many alts being swapped around, dammit.

#650 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:40 PM

Kalse, did Thyr confirm his BOO action? Could you quote it if so. I didn't see it.

And I am willing to test your allegence. I just wanted to ask some questions and mull over it a little more.

Vote Rashan.

#651 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:40 PM

But I'm concerned, cause the octopus sounded bad in FF6.

#652 Kalse

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:40 PM

Speculation from above:

My lover doesn't think Ano was cult because he wasn't when he died. But someone else might be in that alt now.

Also, he found out last night that Shelly is a healer. So does that mean that the person who is in Anom now is the healer or does that mean that Eloth is now a healer?

End speculation.

#653 Osseric

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:42 PM

I don't like D'riss. seems a lot more scummy than Rashan to me ATM.

#654 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:42 PM

Kalse, on 11 July 2012 - 05:37 PM, said:

Kaschan, on 11 July 2012 - 05:05 PM, said:

That's a good point. I'm just really unsure about the integrity of your source Kalse with this above thought experiment.

#655 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:43 PM

Kalse, on 11 July 2012 - 05:40 PM, said:

Ano is still down there as Emur.

#656 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:44 PM

Take a look at my picture of the paper life lines diagram

#657 Osseric

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:45 PM

Heal as a night action? pretty useless as We haven't seen any night kills .

#658 Kaschan

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 05:46 PM

Osseric, on 11 July 2012 - 05:42 PM, said:

I don't like D'riss. seems a lot more scummy than Rashan to me ATM.

I agree, but I don't know what lynching him would prove. At least with Rashan, we have a definite test, and if Kalse's lover is lying, we lynch him/her.