[Omtose]

Screw it. I buy the Amp story. If he were lying we'd just turn around and vig or lynch him, so what does he have to gain? It still stuck out to me on my reread that Eloth refferred to Shelly as SL.

vote Eloth

[Telas]

 Omtose, on 06 June 2012 - 02:38 AM, said:

Screw it. I buy the Amp story. If he were lying we'd just turn around and vig or lynch him, so what does he have to gain? It still stuck out to me on my reread that Eloth refferred to Shelly as SL.

vote Eloth

In general I agree with you. But we should hold off on a speed lynch - see what Eloth and others have to say and see what else may happen over the course of the day.

Unless something entirely game-changing happens, my vote is nailed on on Eloth, but I'll be holding off for a while because of those reasons. And more so those reasons then the hope that Batman kills Eloth, because then all we'll likely end up doing is lynching a townie rather than Eloth

[Galain]

Hummmm, but we have a confirmed failed recruitment, don't we? Ballsy move of Amp if so, but he could be one CL and outing the other one (who he knows from the failed recruit attempt) in the hopes of a quick resolution, either via vig or lynch.

As well, if he is not a CL but has been recruited, then that is in answer to the question of who benefits from the shift in attention? Amps' faction, if he's been recruited. Because by blindly flinging suspicion on someone - a person who he knows at least is NOT his leader - then his cult gains from the death of: town (going for plurality); Batman (VC); enemy cult (plurarlity). There's no downside except the inevitable lynch of Amp if Eloth comes up town BUT that is predicated on Eloth not having been recruited, not being a CL, not being the Batman, AND everyone still caring about that tomorrow when Amps faction is 3 people instead of just two, and all the allegiences have shifted yet again. It's a pretty big move, but it still makes some sense. And there isn't anything to say that Amp wasn't a genuine finder, found a CL, and is now recruited, either.


So the only rational way to proceed (barring other factors affecting gameplay) is to; wait for Eloth to reply. Based on his response, we either lynch him or Amp as a traditional test. Problem solved. But there's no point in rushing anything here, because that just muddies the waters.



Anyway, just a quick post.

[Fener]

Damn, shit has just gone down. Finder reveal. Ok then. Let's see what happens.

[Telas]

I was thinking this could be a very good couple of days for town.

Because I'm an optimist, here's BCS:

Based on possible interpretation of PI's message, Poison Ivy and Joker fail to recruit, leaving only two successful recruiters.

But one of those, Two-Face, is exposed and subsequently killed/lynched. Leaving, after two days, just one truly successful recruiter, the Penguin.

That would be a great start for town. Only downside, no closer to finding Batman.

[Osseric]

Checking in. Catching up. Looks like about 13 pages or so. No time estimate. Any summaries would be greatly appreciated, although I still plan on reading it all.

[Osseric]

As I have not read everything up until now, this may have been discussed, but at work I was thinking about recruit possibilities. Sinse players can be recruited more than once, it is not as bad for town as I had thought. They are as likely to recruit from each other as from town(well not at first, but the math could even out). So they will likely try to come up with some type of signal to each other, perhaps. Perhaps not. And this may be a really, really stupid question, but are the 4 Cult Leaders all on the same team as far as their VC? Or are they all playing against each other? That makes a really big difference.

[Galain]

 Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 03:26 AM, said:

As I have not read everything up until now, this may have been discussed, but at work I was thinking about recruit possibilities. Sinse players can be recruited more than once, it is not as bad for town as I had thought. They are as likely to recruit from each other as from town(well not at first, but the math could even out). So they will likely try to come up with some type of signal to each other, perhaps. Perhaps not. And this may be a really, really stupid question, but are the 4 Cult Leaders all on the same team as far as their VC? Or are they all playing against each other? That makes a really big difference.

This was the mistaken assumption of some people on day one. No, OF COURSE they are not on the same team. Each cult is competing against the others to try and gain plurality - note, NOT MAJORITY, just the largest faction - at the time of Batman's death (assuming he dies before all four Cult Leaders are killed).

[Osseric]

Really. That changes everything. It makes it an even better scenario for town, then. Assuming we started with 22 players, then right now we have Batman, CLx4, and that leaves 17 town? So, even after say 3 days, and if each night all 4 CL recruited a town, that would leave the factions something like:

Town = 17 - 4 - 4 = 9
CL A = 3
CL B = 3
CL C = 3
CL D = 3
Batman


This is assuming no lynches, NKs, etc. As we can't be sure which faction they would come from.

Right? I'm just trying to get a feel for numbers.

Night as dire a situation for town as it once seemed. Not that I'm claiming town. What good would that do.

[Korvalain]

Wow, finder reveal. I guess there are a couple of ways to deal with this.

- We lynch Eloth. If he is cult, yay! If he isn't, we lynch Amp tomorrow
- We leave Batman to take out Eloth, and we focus on finding either another cult leader or Batman. If we manage to lynch Batman we can take out Eloth tomorrow.

If we test the reveal and lynch Eloth then at least we have something concrete to go on, and it will reduce the chances of us lynching another townie. But if we lynch someone else, then we have two chances to hit either cult leader or Batman, and we can test two options at once. If, for example, we consider that the reveal is designed to take heat of Telas, who was starting to be looked at, we can lynch him and test that possibility, while allowing Batman to test the find.

[Ampelas]

Alright, I am properly on now and catching up (though not for long, it's very late here)

[Ampelas]

Right, so random points I remember seeing fly by in the quick read-up:

-I do not have a BP, just a find ability
-Yes, it's possible the reason there was no NK was that BM went for me and I was healed, but if so I don't know anything about it (and wouldn't expect to). It's equally possible it was one of many other things.
-Eloth is Two Face, whereas the CL message we saw looks to be from Ivy to the Joker, so I don't see how that would work with recruiting conflict mechanics, which someone suggested

[Ampelas]

There's also been many suggestions of letting BM deal with Eloth. That's not a bad idea, but it does leave more people for him to hide under and there is the possibility he'll just go after the other 3 CLs and ignore Eloth like we do, so I'm not totally convinced on it. Will revisit the issue more in the morning when I'm thinking better.

[Osseric]

Did you have a one time find ability, or can you find each day/night?

[Ampelas]

 Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 04:18 AM, said:

Did you have a one time find ability, or can you find each day/night?

Each night, standard finder style.

[Ampelas]

Eyes are drooping... I'm off to bed!

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2,27 hours amnd 13 minutes left.

21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

it takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 go to night.

1 vote for Liosan (Meanas)
1 vote for Eloth (Omtose)

The Following people have not voted:
21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

-ment

[Korvalain]

 Ampelas, on 06 June 2012 - 04:16 AM, said:

There's also been many suggestions of letting BM deal with Eloth. That's not a bad idea, but it does leave more people for him to hide under and there is the possibility he'll just go after the other 3 CLs and ignore Eloth like we do, so I'm not totally convinced on it. Will revisit the issue more in the morning when I'm thinking better.

This is a good point, what is to stop Batman from leaving it to town to deal with?

[Path-Shaper]

ok, kids, it's sleep time for me.

I see Liz is reading, so I leave you in her capable hands. play nicely.

-ment

[Osseric]

Night.