Malazan Empire: MAfia 88: Arkham City - Malazan Empire

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MAfia 88: Arkham City NANA-NANA-NANA-NANA-RETCON!!!

#781 User is offline   Omtose 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:38 PM

View PostPath-Shaper, on 05 June 2012 - 08:02 PM, said:

There where a lot of small fight during the first day. One almost proofed fatal to one the participants, but he did survive

Day times out. No lynch has occured.

21 people are still alive : Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 to go to night.

11 votes for Eloth (Karosis, Emurlahn, Anomandaris, Galain, Rashan, Liosan, Omtose, Korbas, Ampelas, Fener, Telas)
1 vote for Rashan (Meanas)
2 votes for Meanas (Spite, D'riss)
1 vote for D'riss(Atrahal)
1 vote for Anomandaris (Eloth)

-Liz


Wow only 16 out of 21 voted? With 4 CLs and 1 BM it IS likely that a couple are in the low posters or even non voters.

Of the non-voters we have:
Anthras
Korvalain
Osseric
Thyrllan
Tulas Shorn

#782 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:38 PM

View PostKarosis, on 05 June 2012 - 09:35 PM, said:

View PostEloth, on 05 June 2012 - 09:23 PM, said:

View PostKarosis, on 05 June 2012 - 09:20 PM, said:

View PostEloth, on 05 June 2012 - 09:18 PM, said:

Funny though... I put up a specified case that is not based on single letter slips or gut (admittedly, one of fairly poor quality and certainly of poor quantification of posts: it is essentially a similarity in posting style quote block that's usually only found in after-the-jump FM cases) and everyone's only commenting on rep, theorycraft and not getting the lynch.
Sure, it is night. Sure, you can't vote at this point, but honestly, guys Posted Image


Pff, wait for day time. I have noted your case and have thoughts about it, but I don't talk about that sort of thing at night.


Also, at this point, none of us has been recruited yet. Which means that we can talk as town, instead of having to wonder if we're talking for new masters.


Hmm, OK that's a fair point.


There are two main parts to your case - an analysis of writing style and an analysis of demeanour. I don't put much weight in the writing style analysis. There's not enough concrete similarities in how Telas speaks and how the Joker's message was worded to be sure. On the other hand, I do think there's some merit to what you pointed out about Telas' behaviour around lynch time. It is very incongruous in a period of time when people are tense and hoping for a lynch. He says there was nothing at stake for him because he wasn't the one being lynched. News flash - if you're of the town, then getting a lynch result is critical. You should definitely be invested in its outcome, because you are part of the group whose weapon it is, so to speak. The fact that he was messing around speaks volumes and is quite a mark against Telas, IMO.

On the other hand, Atrahal's behaviour around lynch time was also very suspicious to me, and I'm keen to follow that up tomorrow as well.




I like where you're going with this, but for now I'm willing to give Telas the benefit of the doubt, I haven't really seen any contradicting behaviour, they were both pretty adamant about not lynching Eloth most of the day, so it didn't seem terribly off for them to be against voting for him at the end of the day. How would it have looked if they had flip-flopped after fighting so hard against it? That being said, I will be keeping an eye on the two during Day 2 to see if they do anything I don't like.

I think we shouldn't discount looking at the low-posters and non-voters - I have said it before, and I'll say it again, I think there's almost definitely a CL or two, and probably BM in those.

#783 User is offline   Liosan 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:39 PM

So, a no-lynch day one. That's odd, why didn't people vote on Eloth? It's fucking day one, we could've lynched just about anyone, yet some people apparantly didn't want a lynch today. I think looking into those not-wanting an Eloth lynch is a good option...

#784 User is offline   Meanas 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:40 PM

Other half of the post (I'm not sure I'll make it through the night, it is still night right?

Actually, I would remove Karo from the above since the train started with him. And those on my train, Spite was first which earns him a repreve from my immediate BM suspect pool, and otherwise, looks like D'riss could be added. Ok, now to look into these....

#785 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:40 PM

View PostRashan, on 05 June 2012 - 10:38 PM, said:

View PostKarosis, on 05 June 2012 - 09:35 PM, said:

View PostEloth, on 05 June 2012 - 09:23 PM, said:

View PostKarosis, on 05 June 2012 - 09:20 PM, said:

View PostEloth, on 05 June 2012 - 09:18 PM, said:

Funny though... I put up a specified case that is not based on single letter slips or gut (admittedly, one of fairly poor quality and certainly of poor quantification of posts: it is essentially a similarity in posting style quote block that's usually only found in after-the-jump FM cases) and everyone's only commenting on rep, theorycraft and not getting the lynch.
Sure, it is night. Sure, you can't vote at this point, but honestly, guys Posted Image


Pff, wait for day time. I have noted your case and have thoughts about it, but I don't talk about that sort of thing at night.


Also, at this point, none of us has been recruited yet. Which means that we can talk as town, instead of having to wonder if we're talking for new masters.


Hmm, OK that's a fair point.


There are two main parts to your case - an analysis of writing style and an analysis of demeanour. I don't put much weight in the writing style analysis. There's not enough concrete similarities in how Telas speaks and how the Joker's message was worded to be sure. On the other hand, I do think there's some merit to what you pointed out about Telas' behaviour around lynch time. It is very incongruous in a period of time when people are tense and hoping for a lynch. He says there was nothing at stake for him because he wasn't the one being lynched. News flash - if you're of the town, then getting a lynch result is critical. You should definitely be invested in its outcome, because you are part of the group whose weapon it is, so to speak. The fact that he was messing around speaks volumes and is quite a mark against Telas, IMO.

On the other hand, Atrahal's behaviour around lynch time was also very suspicious to me, and I'm keen to follow that up tomorrow as well.




I like where you're going with this, but for now I'm willing to give Telas the benefit of the doubt, I haven't really seen any contradicting behaviour, they were both pretty adamant about not lynching Eloth most of the day, so it didn't seem terribly off for them to be against voting for him at the end of the day. How would it have looked if they had flip-flopped after fighting so hard against it? That being said, I will be keeping an eye on the two during Day 2 to see if they do anything I don't like.

I think we shouldn't discount looking at the low-posters and non-voters - I have said it before, and I'll say it again, I think there's almost definitely a CL or two, and probably BM in those.


Oops, meant to say give Telas and Atrahal the benefit of the doubt.

#786 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:41 PM

View PostOmtose, on 05 June 2012 - 10:38 PM, said:

View PostPath-Shaper, on 05 June 2012 - 08:02 PM, said:

There where a lot of small fight during the first day. One almost proofed fatal to one the participants, but he did survive

Day times out. No lynch has occured.

21 people are still alive : Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 to go to night.

11 votes for Eloth (Karosis, Emurlahn, Anomandaris, Galain, Rashan, Liosan, Omtose, Korbas, Ampelas, Fener, Telas)
1 vote for Rashan (Meanas)
2 votes for Meanas (Spite, D'riss)
1 vote for D'riss(Atrahal)
1 vote for Anomandaris (Eloth)

-Liz


Wow only 16 out of 21 voted? With 4 CLs and 1 BM it IS likely that a couple are in the low posters or even non voters.

Of the non-voters we have:
Anthras
Korvalain
Osseric
Thyrllan
Tulas Shorn


Maybe he really IS Batman!

#787 User is offline   Anomandaris 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:43 PM

Ok just got home from work and caught up.

To respond to someone's (telas?) case on me contradicting myself earlier in the game, my only defense is the truth...I changed my mind. I'm relatively new to mafia games, especially cult based ones. What happened betwixt those posts was me mulling things over and trying to get a better feel for the game mechanics/probable behavior of CL and BM. After thinking and considering the logic someone posted, I changed my tune.


The fact that the CL message mentioned SL shortly before he got vigged makes me assume that batman has the vig ability in his possibly huge arsenal, not that a CL does. If one CL had that ability, would not all of them need it to make it fair?


The other thing that I've been wondering all day at work, and I see that a couple of others have touched on it as well but I did not see a definite answer, is if a CL gets killed do the cultists recruited up to that point return to team town?

Going to get some ice cream, be back later...

#788 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:44 PM

View PostLiosan, on 05 June 2012 - 10:39 PM, said:

So, a no-lynch day one. That's odd, why didn't people vote on Eloth? It's fucking day one, we could've lynched just about anyone, yet some people apparantly didn't want a lynch today. I think looking into those not-wanting an Eloth lynch is a good option...


Why would that be a good option? There were no teams on Day 1, so no one was communicating or symping as far as we know. Those who didn't vote Eloth didn't do so because they didn't like the case, didn't vote at all, and/or weren't around to change their votes to get a lynch. I don't understand what the point of holding back on a Day 1 lynch would be unless you were reasonably sure the person who was about to get lynched was a townie.

#789 User is offline   Liosan 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:06 PM

View PostRashan, on 05 June 2012 - 10:44 PM, said:

View PostLiosan, on 05 June 2012 - 10:39 PM, said:

So, a no-lynch day one. That's odd, why didn't people vote on Eloth? It's fucking day one, we could've lynched just about anyone, yet some people apparantly didn't want a lynch today. I think looking into those not-wanting an Eloth lynch is a good option...


Why would that be a good option? There were no teams on Day 1, so no one was communicating or symping as far as we know. Those who didn't vote Eloth didn't do so because they didn't like the case, didn't vote at all, and/or weren't around to change their votes to get a lynch. I don't understand what the point of holding back on a Day 1 lynch would be unless you were reasonably sure the person who was about to get lynched was a townie.



Ah, yes, sorry, i've been preoccupied today. Ahem.

#790 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:19 PM

For those who want to incriminate me (hah) for the "my interests" posts, look at the context of it. We have Meanas go off on town being unwinnable (essentially) and hoping to be recruited. Which, as town others quoted as being fairly anti-town stance. Then read my response:

It is not like "playing to be recruited" has not been done in the past.

But, I don't like the attitude. At all. In fact, it is against my interests.

As of now, you are where my vote is going
, but I do wonder about bored town syndrome.

If you aren't going to play for town, you are playing against my interests. That was the context of the statement at that time. I stated this morning that I do expect my interests to change at some point, but as of then and now I have no reason to not vote someone who said something scummy with the BCS/WCS stuff and then stated the other stuff.

Below are the relevant quotes surrounding it.

View PostKorbas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:16 AM, said:

View PostMeanas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:13 AM, said:

I would point to the fact that lynching me does little for anyone. If I am a cult leader, I have to be the stupidest one in the game. Personally, it's fun baiting hot heads and dragging out dragonsecks, esp on day one. But if you want serious, here is some more (glasses pushed back up the nose, pipe adjusted, hearth still burning, check).

Cult has plurality in three days (WCS or BCS, pick your poison). So I ask, what the fuck can town do about it? Do we have a mayor who can convince the convicts to return to their normal thug status minus the Criminal Mastermind leader? once recurited, town is dead and the cultist arises.

My perspective, as a townie along for the ride, is embrace it. you will most likely be cult, or lose cruelly as one of the few townie specimens. thus, I'm not laying down an attack plan for any cult leader whatsoever until I actually have a team of sorts (not that an aptly placed recruitment wouldn't switch my allegences). This is a fluid game peeps!!! a game of chance and whim. BM is the only constant, and therefor must die. if you think you can find BM 4 times before cult has plurality, you are crazier than I seem to sound (that works right?)

argue that motherfuckers


Quote


Players must not:

B1) Act in any way intended to reduce the chance of their faction achieving its win conditions. (However, should all surviving members of a faction agree that they wish to resign and end the game early, they may do so by PMing the mods privately, without stating their intentions on-thread until the mods post to announce that the game is over.)



Argued.

If you're town, you should be modkilled.


Remove Vote

Vote Meanas



That mentality really makes me sad inside.



View PostMeanas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:18 AM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:16 AM, said:

View PostMeanas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:13 AM, said:

I would point to the fact that lynching me does little for anyone. If I am a cult leader, I have to be the stupidest one in the game. Personally, it's fun baiting hot heads and dragging out dragonsecks, esp on day one. But if you want serious, here is some more (glasses pushed back up the nose, pipe adjusted, hearth still burning, check).

Cult has plurality in three days (WCS or BCS, pick your poison). So I ask, what the fuck can town do about it? Do we have a mayor who can convince the convicts to return to their normal thug status minus the Criminal Mastermind leader? once recurited, town is dead and the cultist arises.

My perspective, as a townie along for the ride, is embrace it. you will most likely be cult, or lose cruelly as one of the few townie specimens. thus, I'm not laying down an attack plan for any cult leader whatsoever until I actually have a team of sorts (not that an aptly placed recruitment wouldn't switch my allegences). This is a fluid game peeps!!! a game of chance and whim. BM is the only constant, and therefor must die. if you think you can find BM 4 times before cult has plurality, you are crazier than I seem to sound (that works right?)

argue that motherfuckers


Quote


Players must not:

B1) Act in any way intended to reduce the chance of their faction achieving its win conditions. (However, should all surviving members of a faction agree that they wish to resign and end the game early, they may do so by PMing the mods privately, without stating their intentions on-thread until the mods post to announce that the game is over.)



Argued.

If you're town, you should be modkilled.


Remove Vote

Vote Meanas



That mentality really makes me sad inside.



Ah, self-righteousness from someone playing meta a little earlier iirc. I love the sweet smell of hypocracy burning on the frying pan in the morning.



View PostKorbas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:19 AM, said:

No meta. I wasn't part of the timing thing. Doesn't sit right.



View PostKarosis, on 05 June 2012 - 02:24 AM, said:

View PostMeanas, on 05 June 2012 - 02:13 AM, said:

I would point to the fact that lynching me does little for anyone. If I am a cult leader, I have to be the stupidest one in the game. Personally, it's fun baiting hot heads and dragging out dragonsecks, esp on day one. But if you want serious, here is some more (glasses pushed back up the nose, pipe adjusted, hearth still burning, check).

Cult has plurality in three days (WCS or BCS, pick your poison). So I ask, what the fuck can town do about it? Do we have a mayor who can convince the convicts to return to their normal thug status minus the Criminal Mastermind leader? once recurited, town is dead and the cultist arises.

My perspective, as a townie along for the ride, is embrace it. you will most likely be cult, or lose cruelly as one of the few townie specimens. thus, I'm not laying down an attack plan for any cult leader whatsoever until I actually have a team of sorts (not that an aptly placed recruitment wouldn't switch my allegences). This is a fluid game peeps!!! a game of chance and whim. BM is the only constant, and therefor must die. if you think you can find BM 4 times before cult has plurality, you are crazier than I seem to sound (that works right?)

argue that motherfuckers


No. You play for the team your Role PM says you are on, not the team you expect to be on on Night 4. That is a cast iron rule about how this game is played, there is no arguing on this point.

In any case, your analysis of how the game will turn out is terrible. You have neglected to account for cross-recruiting, which will make a difference to how long we have. You have neglected to account for the possibility that the cult leaders can actually be killed, which would significantly reduce the rate that town are turned. And you have neglected to account for information transfer on recruitment attempts, which will make recruiters known to the thread and significantly reduce their ability to operate.

EDIT: X-Post with Korbas, who says something very similar.






View PostD, on 05 June 2012 - 02:24 AM, said:

Huh.

It is not like "playing to be recruited" has not been done in the past.

But, I don't like the attitude. At all. In fact, it is against my interests.

As of now, you are where my vote is going, but I do wonder about bored town syndrome.


#791 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:20 PM

I am nearly done resolving (triple checking to make sure all the actions and stuff work out properly)

One thing I didn't drop in the OP, but will be added there soon:

actions are resolved in the following order :
Guard- Heal-Find-kill-recruit.

-ment
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#792 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:24 PM

Re: Eloth's case on Telas. I don't know if posting style can be gauged very well when it is probable the person would be sure to try to disguise it, but that's not to say it isn't worth considering.

I'd put 2:1 on Batman being bottom 5 poster. He has zero reason to get involved this early, but I always suspect dirty low posters. It's a vice.

Btw, I would have switched to Eloth if I'd have been here (I stated earlier that I thought he had made some good points and that always makes me wary), but you'll have my sparkling personality for very few hours at a time. I'll try to leave a vote though so that if it is needed it'll be there.

#793 User is offline   Meanas 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:33 PM

View PostD, on 05 June 2012 - 11:24 PM, said:

Re: Eloth's case on Telas. I don't know if posting style can be gauged very well when it is probable the person would be sure to try to disguise it, but that's not to say it isn't worth considering.

I'd put 2:1 on Batman being bottom 5 poster. He has zero reason to get involved this early, but I always suspect dirty low posters. It's a vice.

Btw, I would have switched to Eloth if I'd have been here (I stated earlier that I thought he had made some good points and that always makes me wary), but you'll have my sparkling personality for very few hours at a time. I'll try to leave a vote though so that if it is needed it'll be there.



What's wrong with vice? unless you are batman....

And you would say that BM would have no reason to get involved if you were an involved BM. As I said, but a few posts ago, it behooves our bowel movement to lynch people.

#794 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:37 PM

View PostMeanas, on 05 June 2012 - 11:33 PM, said:

View PostD, on 05 June 2012 - 11:24 PM, said:

Re: Eloth's case on Telas. I don't know if posting style can be gauged very well when it is probable the person would be sure to try to disguise it, but that's not to say it isn't worth considering.

I'd put 2:1 on Batman being bottom 5 poster. He has zero reason to get involved this early, but I always suspect dirty low posters. It's a vice.

Btw, I would have switched to Eloth if I'd have been here (I stated earlier that I thought he had made some good points and that always makes me wary), but you'll have my sparkling personality for very few hours at a time. I'll try to leave a vote though so that if it is needed it'll be there.



What's wrong with vice? unless you are batman....

And you would say that BM would have no reason to get involved if you were an involved BM. As I said, but a few posts ago, it behooves our bowel movement to lynch people.


I don't disagree with the latter. Of the former, I think there might be a Cult Leader there as well as Batman, but I think since they'll need to be relatively active in order to guide their followers they can't come bounding out of nowhere, unlike a hiding Batman who gets to switch at some point. Thus, probably just a Batman down there, busy people, and bored people.

#795 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:39 PM

Ah, I got confused by your "bowel movement" as Batman, there. I think it behooves far more people than just Batman to lynch people.

Frankly, I think it behooves town to lynch people as well. Else might as well just sit there and be a turd.

#796 User is offline   Meanas 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:40 PM

busy people, I could buy, but bored? And who really could resist all that spam? RLY?

[attachment=20846:Picture 5.png]

Edit, missing the owl.

This post has been edited by Meanas: 05 June 2012 - 11:43 PM


#797 User is offline   Meanas 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:45 PM

View PostD, on 05 June 2012 - 11:39 PM, said:

Ah, I got confused by your "bowel movement" as Batman, there. I think it behooves far more people than just Batman to lynch people.

Frankly, I think it behooves town to lynch people as well. Else might as well just sit there and be a turd.


Actually BM is an active bodily function. Turds just sit there, as you said.

#798 User is offline   Spite 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:50 PM

I'm gonna go look over Atrahal's posts now. If there's anyone else anyone wants me to take a look at that they don't have time to/want a second opinion on then just say the word.

#799 User is offline   Spite 

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:57 PM

Hehe, Atrahal has 69 posts

#800 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 12:04 AM

View PostTelas, on 05 June 2012 - 09:36 PM, said:

Oh you mean Korbas' NO LYNCH I WILL EAT YOU FACE raging ;) I didn't want to get involve in some one's bout of righteousness. :)


Calling good town common sense righteousness doesn't not make you a retard.

No offense.

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