Malazan Empire: MAfia 88: Arkham City - Malazan Empire

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MAfia 88: Arkham City NANA-NANA-NANA-NANA-RETCON!!!

#1141 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:17 PM

View PostAmpelas, on 06 June 2012 - 04:57 PM, said:

I do think Osseric's behaviour is weird and he could very well be Batman. Or he could be an Eloth recruit willing to deflect, or something else entirely.

For now, I think it's worth lynching Eloth for the information it will give us on what happens when a CL dies (and I may be a bit biased towards it confirming my find ;) ). I don't see Batman as having some sort of thread-exploding powers, just a regular NK and lots of defence. The lack of NKs last night has in some sense given us an extra day, which we can use on Eloth without shortening the game on ourselves.


I will applaud you from spoiler heaven if you actually make it past day 4. And double congratz for convincing Karosis that you are worth listening to, when your own saving grace is getting rid of me before I convince more people that you are, indeed, The Joker.

#1142 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:17 PM

View PostEloth, on 06 June 2012 - 05:13 PM, said:

View PostKarosis, on 06 June 2012 - 04:33 PM, said:

See, the thing is, we are not looking to kill recruits. Town's principle antagonists are the Batman and the Cult Leaders - one needs to be killed in order for town to win, the others need to be killed to stop them from reducing the number of townies to the point that we can't win. I don't mind leaving Meanas alive for the time being. We know where he lives, and what team he is on. In the future we can always get rid of him if we think we need to. But we don't reduce the Cult's numbers by lynching Meanas - the Joker will get another chance to recruit, as will all the other cults. Lynching Meanas in fact reduces town's chances of winning.

Also worth bearing in mind that even if Meanas has been recruited, it is still in his interests to help us find Batman. He needs to keep his Leader alive to recruit others, after all. I don't see Meanas as a threat worth eliminating at this point.

On the other hand, if we lynch Eloth today, there is one less recruiter for us to worry about. That means only 3 cults remain and the rate of town drain is reduced, leaving us with more time to hunt the Bat.


Blahblahblah.
You say tempo but you main ego that's being saved.

Let's do some maths, I hear you are fond of them. But because I like telling tales, gather around, kids. I'll tell you a story.
When Uncle Ment and aunt Liz designed this game, uncle Ment came up with a big scary evil guy, and he wanted the cult leaders to have some weaponry to deal with that guy. So he gave them vigs. Uncle Ment, being the genius for entertainment that he is, then invented a recruiting mechanism where cult leaders would learn each other's alt when they recruited the same guy. Funny, huh? Yeah. But then aunt Liz said: wait a second, you gave those guys vigs. What's to stop them from killing each other and doing the Bad Man's job for him, or revealing the other guy to town? And uncle Ment said: damn Lizzie, that's a good point!

So uncle Ment also gave cousin Two Face, cousin The Joker, cousin Penguin and that strange little hippie girl from next door some serious protection.
Cousin Two-Face, but you may call me Harvey, cous, because I liked you enough to want you on my side, has protection with a big P. I'm going to be 100% honest now. If you lynch me, I will still be here on the morning of day 3. I have an LP and at the least 1 BP. Here's how: you lynch me, I have an LP, and then Batman kills me, but I have at least 1 BP. Then all protection is gone, or maybe not even that, but a near naked Harvey Dent stands before you, and let me tell you cous, my left ball looks distinctly weird due to all that acid that was poured over it. You don't want to see that. But while the Batman was killing me, cous, I was active too. I was recruiting or vigging. Unless I was guarded, of course.

Now, on that little maths problem I said I would pose to you.
You wasted on me 1 Lynch, and the Batman wasted 1 action. I did something, too. Then it is day 3 and you have to decide whether you leave me for Batman or lynch me again.

I potentially cost you 2 lynches (aka, time), and the Batman one or two actions. I caused the lost of 0-1 people who may also be cult recruits.

Now, examine the situation where you leave me for the Batman. I cost you no lynches, I cost the Batman (my number of BPs + 1) in actions, and still 0-1 people, who may also be cult recruits.

So, Cousin, tell me: which is the better choice for town?


I think you're full of shit, but if you're not, I want fucking confirmation. We SHOULD have had it last night, but people don't understand how to vote and so now we are still forced to lynch your ass to test all the information you've spouted. If you're alive, then great, we know CLs have an LP (which would be really stupid unless the game is designed to where town can ONLY lynch Batman...pretty fucking hard to win that way if CLs are invincible to town as we get mass recruited).

#1143 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:21 PM

Also, if you are expecting Batman to kill you, why the fuck are you trying to "help town" by telling us you are lynchproof? You don't care about living or dying? You don't care that Batman is going to try to kill you? If Batman wastes his actions on you, great; if not, town is still in a position to maintain plurality and lynch the Bat. His night actions are designed for YOU, not for town, so trying to convince us that his NAs should be the focus of our lynch target is totally ridiculous.

#1144 User is offline   Anthras 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:21 PM

I agree that it is better to take out a known and admitted CL at this time. Removing a CL increases our time before the other CL reach a plurality level. This is something that this early in the game we have to take advantage of. This advantage overrides any extra knowledge that we might be able to glean from Eloth. I don't think that we should totally discount all of the information that he has given us on the thread through. Like any information in a cult game it needs to be looked at through rose glasses.


Vote Eloth

#1145 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:22 PM

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:14 PM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

Oh yes, my last comment - as town, our only power is the lynch. Let's fucking use it. We cannot rely on BATMAN, who is NOT A TOWN MEMBER, to help us.


No shit. I would just rather use it on Batman.


I would too, but the odds of that are slim, and to keep town's numbers as high as possible, eliminating a single CL will significantly reduce the odds of town members being recruited off. Plus, we get a lot of information, and if Eloth is lying and actually has a recruit, we may find out what happens to them as well - like, they may become town again, and there would be no reason for them not to reveal that to us.


Whether I die today (impossible) or tomorrow (more likely) does not alter the odds. It lowers the number of recruited people by 1, period, for the remainder of the game. That is decent, but nowhere near significant.

#1146 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:23 PM

Also, assuming Batman is not omniscient and doesn't know for sure that you are LP, why would he waste an action on you if we lynched you? That would make no sense. He would probably choose a different target. You are making way too many bad assumptions to live through the day.

#1147 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:24 PM

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:12 PM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:10 PM, said:

And batman would only be helping us by proxy. He's achieving his VC.


I agree totally, that's why the argument of "let's let Batman help town!" is the stupidest fucking thing on thread right now.


You truly think he wouldn't kill Eloth if we left him alone? Of course he would. He's not actively trying to help town, but he is doing so in achieving his VC.

#1148 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:24 PM

It is Day 2, 14 hours and 36 minutes left.

21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

it takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 go to night.

1 vote for Liosan (Meanas)
10 vote for Eloth (Omtose, Tulas Shorn, Osseric, Karosis, Emurlahn, Eloth, Ampelas, Fener, Korbas, Anthras)
5 vote for Osseric (Eloth, Thyrllan, Korvalain, Atrahal, Rashan)


The Following people have not voted:
Ampelas, Atrahal, D'riss, Galain, Liosan, Rashan, Spite, Telan

-Liz
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#1149 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:25 PM

View PostEloth, on 06 June 2012 - 05:22 PM, said:

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:14 PM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

Oh yes, my last comment - as town, our only power is the lynch. Let's fucking use it. We cannot rely on BATMAN, who is NOT A TOWN MEMBER, to help us.


No shit. I would just rather use it on Batman.


I would too, but the odds of that are slim, and to keep town's numbers as high as possible, eliminating a single CL will significantly reduce the odds of town members being recruited off. Plus, we get a lot of information, and if Eloth is lying and actually has a recruit, we may find out what happens to them as well - like, they may become town again, and there would be no reason for them not to reveal that to us.


Whether I die today (impossible) or tomorrow (more likely) does not alter the odds. It lowers the number of recruited people by 1, period, for the remainder of the game. That is decent, but nowhere near significant.


Wait, what? How does it lower the number of recruited people by 1? Either you already have a recruit, or you are assuming (overconfidently) that your recruit attempt tonight will succeed - if you even survive. And no, your math is fucking terrible. If you die tomorrow during the day, you could possible have 2 recruits already. What it does for town is it cuts down the possible recruit attempts EVERY NIGHT by 25%. That is fucking significant.

#1150 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:27 PM

View PostKorbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:12 PM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:10 PM, said:

And batman would only be helping us by proxy. He's achieving his VC.


I agree totally, that's why the argument of "let's let Batman help town!" is the stupidest fucking thing on thread right now.


You truly think he wouldn't kill Eloth if we left him alone? Of course he would. He's not actively trying to help town, but he is doing so in achieving his VC.


Why would we assume that? If he knows who Eloth is, he can take his time in killing him. There are other CLs out there - possibly confirmed already, it appears - and so if he has a good secondary target I don't see why he wouldn't try for a different CL and let town wallow in the Eloth's complete thread confusion for another day.

#1151 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:29 PM

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:21 PM, said:

Also, if you are expecting Batman to kill you, why the fuck are you trying to "help town" by telling us you are lynchproof? You don't care about living or dying? You don't care that Batman is going to try to kill you? If Batman wastes his actions on you, great; if not, town is still in a position to maintain plurality and lynch the Bat. His night actions are designed for YOU, not for town, so trying to convince us that his NAs should be the focus of our lynch target is totally ridiculous.


Batman is going to kill me anyway, you guys can't kill me unless aided by Batman or by the other CL. I already told you that. The fact is you don't believe me, but it is for me about 87% true and the 13% hesitation is only because I don't know what town roles Ment put in.

I don't want you fuckers to win. If I can't win, then I hope another Super Villain wins. I threw The Joker out for vengeance, but with him and me gone, we will make a nice speedbump as well as making the game very exciting to watch from SH. For PI or The Penguin to win, the Batman needs to die 4 times, and I think the best way to take him out, is lynching. Which means that I don't want lynches wasted on myself or Ampelas. Leave us to the Batman. Make him work for his victory while you work towards yours.
He can off two of the super villains who are outed now. That should give town more days to work with. Your own contribution to killing us is neglible and you're on a tight clock schedule to lynch BM 4 times while you have plurality.

As a result, it is for all involved best if you lynch Batman and focus on that. He will kill us. Don't worry about that.

#1152 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:30 PM

View PostPath-Shaper, on 06 June 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

It is Day 2, 14 hours and 36 minutes left.

21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

it takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 go to night.

1 vote for Liosan (Meanas)
10 vote for Eloth (Omtose, Tulas Shorn, Osseric, Karosis, Emurlahn, Eloth, Ampelas, Fener, Korbas, Anthras)
5 vote for Osseric (Eloth, Thyrllan, Korvalain, Atrahal, Rashan)


The Following people have not voted:
Ampelas, Atrahal, D'riss, Galain, Liosan, Rashan, Spite, Telan

-Liz


You've got me there twice, and Telan should be Telas. I am still thinking we should be trying for Osseric, I would be willing to be that he's going to be BM.

#1153 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:30 PM

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:23 PM, said:

Also, assuming Batman is not omniscient and doesn't know for sure that you are LP, why would he waste an action on you if we lynched you? That would make no sense. He would probably choose a different target. You are making way too many bad assumptions to live through the day.


The difference between you and me, sir piggy, is that I know my own role PM.

#1154 User is offline   Karosis 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:32 PM

Who are you guys arguing with? I've seen some blocks of text from some kind of purplish avatar, but I just skimmed over them without reading... ;)

#1155 User is offline   Tulas Shorn 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:32 PM

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

Oh yes, my last comment - as town, our only power is the lynch. Let's fucking use it. We cannot rely on BATMAN, who is NOT A TOWN MEMBER, to help us.



this is a good point

#1156 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:33 PM

corrected:

It is Day 2, 14 hours and 28 minutes left.

21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

it takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 go to night.

1 vote for Liosan (Meanas)
10 vote for Eloth (Omtose, Tulas Shorn, Osseric, Karosis, Emurlahn, Eloth, Ampelas, Fener, Korbas, Anthras)
5 vote for Osseric (Eloth, Thyrllan, Korvalain, Atrahal, Rashan)


The Following people have not voted:
Ampelas, Atrahal, D'riss, Galain, Liosan, Spite, Telas

-Liz
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#1157 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:33 PM

View PostRashan, on 06 June 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:

View PostPath-Shaper, on 06 June 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

It is Day 2, 14 hours and 36 minutes left.

21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

it takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 go to night.

1 vote for Liosan (Meanas)
10 vote for Eloth (Omtose, Tulas Shorn, Osseric, Karosis, Emurlahn, Eloth, Ampelas, Fener, Korbas, Anthras)
5 vote for Osseric (Eloth, Thyrllan, Korvalain, Atrahal, Rashan)


The Following people have not voted:
Ampelas, Atrahal, D'riss, Galain, Liosan, Rashan, Spite, Telan

-Liz


You've got me there twice, and Telan should be Telas. I am still thinking we should be trying for Osseric, I would be willing to be that he's going to be BM.


be = bet

#1158 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:33 PM

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:25 PM, said:

View PostEloth, on 06 June 2012 - 05:22 PM, said:

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:14 PM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

View PostFener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

Oh yes, my last comment - as town, our only power is the lynch. Let's fucking use it. We cannot rely on BATMAN, who is NOT A TOWN MEMBER, to help us.


No shit. I would just rather use it on Batman.


I would too, but the odds of that are slim, and to keep town's numbers as high as possible, eliminating a single CL will significantly reduce the odds of town members being recruited off. Plus, we get a lot of information, and if Eloth is lying and actually has a recruit, we may find out what happens to them as well - like, they may become town again, and there would be no reason for them not to reveal that to us.


Whether I die today (impossible) or tomorrow (more likely) does not alter the odds. It lowers the number of recruited people by 1, period, for the remainder of the game. That is decent, but nowhere near significant.


Wait, what? How does it lower the number of recruited people by 1? Either you already have a recruit, or you are assuming (overconfidently) that your recruit attempt tonight will succeed - if you even survive. And no, your math is fucking terrible. If you die tomorrow during the day, you could possible have 2 recruits already. What it does for town is it cuts down the possible recruit attempts EVERY NIGHT by 25%. That is fucking significant.

There's a difference between relative and absolute. My maths is from an absolute PoV, taking into account that I won't be around forever. Yours is from a relative PoV and doesn't take into account that my presence is already limited to only a few game phases.
But if you like bigger numbers, then yes, it cuts down on 25%. You know what, you lynch all 4 cult leaders, you have a 0% chance to be recruited. It still won't mean you will win.

#1159 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:34 PM

View PostPath-Shaper, on 06 June 2012 - 05:33 PM, said:

corrected:

It is Day 2, 14 hours and 28 minutes left.

21 players remaining alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

it takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 go to night.

1 vote for Liosan (Meanas)
10 vote for Eloth (Omtose, Tulas Shorn, Osseric, Karosis, Emurlahn, Eloth, Ampelas, Fener, Korbas, Anthras)
5 vote for Osseric (Eloth, Thyrllan, Korvalain, Atrahal, Rashan)


The Following people have not voted:
Ampelas, Atrahal, D'riss, Galain, Liosan, Spite, Telas

-Liz


Sorry, I didn't see them the first time around, but you have Atrahal and Ampelas on there twice too.

#1160 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:35 PM

View PostKarosis, on 06 June 2012 - 05:32 PM, said:

Who are you guys arguing with? I've seen some blocks of text from some kind of purplish avatar, but I just skimmed over them without reading... ;)


Which is going to make you look like a fucking stupid self satisfied aggrandizing bastard who, out of his own egotistical conviction that he is right and being bullshitted and therefore chooses willful ignorance over enlightenment, when you see I don't go down during the lynch and read back.

Greetings from future me.

edit: fixed wrong into right

This post has been edited by Eloth: 06 June 2012 - 05:36 PM


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