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Mafia 87.5: The Numbers Game When Transcendentals Attack!

#341 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:32 PM

View PostAnomandaris, on 23 May 2012 - 10:02 PM, said:

Amp, here is why I made that list of potential reasons for killing SL:

View PostTelas, on 23 May 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Just got up, surprised they killed off Shelly. I figured the killers would have left her around for the townies to take down. Which means that she must have been on to something. I believe she spent a good chunk of time accusing Ampelas, so when I have the time to go through the thread I'm going to read over her posts again to see if there's anything interesting in them that we may have missed.



View PostKarosis, on 23 May 2012 - 01:52 PM, said:

ok....it is odd to me that they killed shelly , simply because she was so controversial and would have definitely been a potential lynch target and discussed throughout the day. without going into too much wifom, this essentially resets us back to day 1 with both of our main scum suspects dead and confirmed town. dilemma.

it's possible that she was onto something at the end, and if someone wants to really look into that, great, but we can't assume it. i flat out said yesterday the killers would be crazy to kill shelly...and then they did. so it could just be deliberate attempt at confusion. also stalls our discussion quite a bit.

one thing that I do not like is that SL was really targeting Anomandaris at the end of the day and now ano is making lists (on noes, t3h scumz!) and actively investigating people who were not interested in shelly's lynch... lays a vote down pretty early too. almost seems too eager to help town find out why shelly was killed and then base his lynch on that.... smells of scum who knows too much and is taking the reins in the aftermath of night 1 confusion.

not sure what to make of it yet though. need some time to reread more.



The idea that Shelly was onto something is one of several possible MOs for her kill. The reason for the list was there are many other possibilities and I have a hard time believing paired killers discussing their night action via PM would agree that Shelly needed to go because her guesses were getting too close for comfort.

To reiterate, Shelly accused half of town for Pete's sake. Who was she "onto"? If people can scare up some quotes that show a clear leaning without a sudden change in vote from one suspect to another mere hours later, I would be more interested.

On the other hand, Amp and Korbas both did not seem that interested in Shelly on day 1. Why? Were they unworried because of the night kill action? Were they keeping their distance so as not to be linked with Shelly's death? Were they more blase' about Shelly's act because they knew she was town?






I didn't care about shelly in day 1 much because he was just bantering and not making much sense. When he broke roleplaying though he started to make some sense, I'm gonna go back and reread those posts to see what he may (or may not have been) on to.

#342 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:35 PM

View PostSheltatha Lore, on 23 May 2012 - 01:20 AM, said:

Fingers crossed on Tulas, but I'm thinking that this is going to be an inno lynch. You'll normally find killers early on (day 1, 2) hiding in the middle order - so Karosis, Rashan, D'riss, Fener, Thyrllan - these are the people I'd look at right now.

Tulas appears like he's in this same category but actually isn't - if he hadn't roused himself to defend from votes he'd be among the lowest posters.


This is the post that caught my attention. Shelly broke character and started to make sense, names a list of suspects, and gets killed during the night.

When I have some more time I'm gonna reread all of Shelly's suspect's posts.

#343 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:43 PM

View PostD, on 23 May 2012 - 09:50 PM, said:

D'riss has returned to much fanfare! (/roleplay)


Rashan has become very proactive and helpful. It's too bad there isn't any way to know if this is due to me plopping a vote on him, or he would have done this on Day 2 anyways. My suspicion is the former - it's out of character compared to his Day 1 play since he didn't really do anything on his own on Day 1 (good when you want to avoid the random day 1 lynch over some small perceived error). Now all of a sudden he feels pressure to contribute or face people looking at him.

As for things being said about others

Fener - I think he needs to post more. I don't get much from him except "indignancy" about this and that.

Amp - The case is ok, but a bit of a stretch. As Telas points out, it can be interpreted either way.

Galain - Other than the "setting up lynches" thing at the end of Day 1, (which happen to be the 2 dead people - spooky) I'm not seeing much. Although the pre-emptive explanation at the top of this page made a slight wave on my scumdar. Answering accusations before they happen is a little suspicious.


Thanks for the compliment... I think...
Actually your vote didn't really worry me. As a proponent for a Shelly lynch I rather expected one or two today. I'm comfortable enough in my own innocence that I'm not too rattled by it. Now as far as your saying that I didnt' really do anything on Day 1, I have to call bullshit. I stuck my neck out and made known my opinions on Shelly. I could have goofed around on day one and said nothing at all then thrown my vote down on the biggest train, but I threw in on the Shelly lynch on a theory (albeit a bad one) WITH MY REASONING. That didn't look like it would fly in the end so I put it on the next most reasonable suspect (to me) at the time. Now we have a bit more to go on, so the day 2 shit will come out, which will invariably be better than the Day 1 shit, but still not be as good as the Day 3 shit.

So, I can tell you you're wrong and tell you why I did what I did, but at the end of the day for all I know YOU'RE the scum.

#344 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:07 PM

View PostKorbas, on 23 May 2012 - 10:35 PM, said:

View PostSheltatha Lore, on 23 May 2012 - 01:20 AM, said:

Fingers crossed on Tulas, but I'm thinking that this is going to be an inno lynch. You'll normally find killers early on (day 1, 2) hiding in the middle order - so Karosis, Rashan, D'riss, Fener, Thyrllan - these are the people I'd look at right now.

Tulas appears like he's in this same category but actually isn't - if he hadn't roused himself to defend from votes he'd be among the lowest posters.


This is the post that caught my attention. Shelly broke character and started to make sense, names a list of suspects, and gets killed during the night.

When I have some more time I'm gonna reread all of Shelly's suspect's posts.


That's kind of a lame reasoning don't you think? I'm ALWAYS in the middle order. Every game you will find me in THAT ^^ list. That's just another theory to live by. High posters, low posters, middle posters.... pshaw. I only latched onto the hiding in high posting idea because there has been so much talk AGAINST voting for annoying players. Seemed like a great place to hide. If you are going to follow Khell's logic start looking at the dust he stirred as I assure you that was yet another attempt to stir things up.

#345 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:11 PM

View PostAnomandaris, on 23 May 2012 - 10:02 PM, said:

Amp, here is why I made that list of potential reasons for killing SL:

View PostTelas, on 23 May 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Just got up, surprised they killed off Shelly. I figured the killers would have left her around for the townies to take down. Which means that she must have been on to something. I believe she spent a good chunk of time accusing Ampelas, so when I have the time to go through the thread I'm going to read over her posts again to see if there's anything interesting in them that we may have missed.



View PostKarosis, on 23 May 2012 - 01:52 PM, said:

ok....it is odd to me that they killed shelly , simply because she was so controversial and would have definitely been a potential lynch target and discussed throughout the day. without going into too much wifom, this essentially resets us back to day 1 with both of our main scum suspects dead and confirmed town. dilemma.

it's possible that she was onto something at the end, and if someone wants to really look into that, great, but we can't assume it. i flat out said yesterday the killers would be crazy to kill shelly...and then they did. so it could just be deliberate attempt at confusion. also stalls our discussion quite a bit.

one thing that I do not like is that SL was really targeting Anomandaris at the end of the day and now ano is making lists (on noes, t3h scumz!) and actively investigating people who were not interested in shelly's lynch... lays a vote down pretty early too. almost seems too eager to help town find out why shelly was killed and then base his lynch on that.... smells of scum who knows too much and is taking the reins in the aftermath of night 1 confusion.

not sure what to make of it yet though. need some time to reread more.



The idea that Shelly was onto something is one of several possible MOs for her kill. The reason for the list was there are many other possibilities and I have a hard time believing paired killers discussing their night action via PM would agree that Shelly needed to go because her guesses were getting too close for comfort.

To reiterate, Shelly accused half of town for Pete's sake. Who was she "onto"? If people can scare up some quotes that show a clear leaning without a sudden change in vote from one suspect to another mere hours later, I would be more interested.

On the other hand, Amp and Korbas both did not seem that interested in Shelly on day 1. Why? Were they unworried because of the night kill action? Were they keeping their distance so as not to be linked with Shelly's death? Were they more blase' about Shelly's act because they knew she was town?





I find myself agreeing with your logic. Damnit. With my track record I should almost vote you BECAUSE I agree with you. :D

#346 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:14 PM

I've belatedly put up some scenes, by the way. I was falling asleep while writing them, so I'm not really sure how much sense they make...


It is Day 2. There are 23 hours and 12 minutes remaining.

There are 10 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Rashan, Telas, Thyrllan

6 votes required for a lynch, 5 to go to night.

1 vote Korbas (Anomandaris)
1 vote Rashan (D'riss)
1 vote Ampelas (Rashan)

Players who have not voted: Ampelas, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Telas, Thyrllan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#347 User is offline   Galain 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:18 PM

So, Day Two appears to be going ssssssllllllloooooooowwwww.

#348 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:31 PM

@Rashan

So you made your opinion known on Shelly, the most spastic and annoying player with with waaay more posts than anyone else.

Thanks for sticking your neck out. :D

#349 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:37 PM

morning all.
possible crazy with a k theory. The double quote in amps post, telas and karosis, very similar, omg they are ten scum buddies and discussed such yesterday.
Moving on from that one.

Of the two non interested parties (amp and korb) id be more interested in a Korbas vote at the minute, posts seem less reasoned than amp and just a more LOL type of vibe from him (that makes sense in my head)

and back to the two I'm interested in, fener seeks almost disinterested in the game day one, likely because of shellys spamming. Galains a high poster but I can't gather much content on it other than gut.

no quotes, on phone. Gonna stick a vote down to apply some pressure.


vote galain

#350 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 01:02 AM

View PostRashan, on 23 May 2012 - 11:07 PM, said:

View PostKorbas, on 23 May 2012 - 10:35 PM, said:

View PostSheltatha Lore, on 23 May 2012 - 01:20 AM, said:

Fingers crossed on Tulas, but I'm thinking that this is going to be an inno lynch. You'll normally find killers early on (day 1, 2) hiding in the middle order - so Karosis, Rashan, D'riss, Fener, Thyrllan - these are the people I'd look at right now.

Tulas appears like he's in this same category but actually isn't - if he hadn't roused himself to defend from votes he'd be among the lowest posters.


This is the post that caught my attention. Shelly broke character and started to make sense, names a list of suspects, and gets killed during the night.

When I have some more time I'm gonna reread all of Shelly's suspect's posts.


That's kind of a lame reasoning don't you think? I'm ALWAYS in the middle order. Every game you will find me in THAT ^^ list. That's just another theory to live by. High posters, low posters, middle posters.... pshaw. I only latched onto the hiding in high posting idea because there has been so much talk AGAINST voting for annoying players. Seemed like a great place to hide. If you are going to follow Khell's logic start looking at the dust he stirred as I assure you that was yet another attempt to stir things up.



Lame reasoning is better than no reasoning I guess. I'm just trying to go with any theory because, otherwise, I'd have nothing at all. Hoping something jumps out at me in a better way, but its just not happening. Yet.

The people who are pointing fingers the most today seem to be Anno, Thyr, and you. Not saying that you're scum, but who knows? Not me , so I'm just gonna throw in my towel with you on this one. Maybe it'll start a train, maybe not, but hopefully we will at least get some new info to go on.

Vote Ampelas

#351 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 01:14 AM

I'm finally home from work and will be off and on for a bit. I really need to reread before adding anything worth reading though.

#352 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 01:34 AM

I was thinking about this earlier today and wanted to recheck the timing of things and the lynch. It stuck to me as odd play, and I really can't see the reasoning behind it.

View PostTelas, on 22 May 2012 - 11:51 PM, said:

C'mon everyone, jump on the lynch Shelly train. I don't think there's anything suspicious about Tulas Shorn's play, though his big freak out was a little big. Shelly's just annoying as shit, and isn't really playing the game. She's using her constant blather to make herself seem unimportant, and I really think that she is a killer. And like someone upthread said, worse case scenario we get rid of an annoying townie.



View PostTelas, on 23 May 2012 - 01:14 AM, said:

Alright, well, it doesn't seem like we'll get the votes for Shelly, and I'm not likely going to be able to play for the rest of the night. So...

remove vote
vote Tulas Shorn



These were subsequent posts roughly one hour and twenty minutes apart.

Here is the lynch post:

View PostPath-Shaper, on 23 May 2012 - 02:19 AM, said:

It is Day 1. There are 9 hours and 50 minutes remaining. There has been a lynch

There are 12 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Rashan, Sheltatha Lore, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

7 votes required for a lynch, 6 to go to night.

2 votes Sheltatha Lore ( Karosis, Fener)
7 votes Tulas Shorn (Anomandaris, Korbas, D’riss,
Thyrllan, Galain, Telas, Rashan)
1 vote Karosis (Tulas Shorn)
1 vote Ampelas (Sheltatha Lore)

The following players have not voted: Ampelas

--------------------

There were many rumours told about the Transcendentals, but they all had two things in common. By manipulating their inner decimal point, it was possible for them to appear as any number they wanted - their decimal chain provided all the raw materials they needed. And that chain was deadly - they wrapped it around their prey squeezing the life out of them and then assimilating them. It was often said that the reason their decimal expansion was without end was because their murders were similarly endless.

On this day, it was the former point that posed more discussion. "They could be any one of us!" was the rallying cry, and soon arguments broke out. Eventually the group chose to cast out their most foul-mouthed member - for such behaviour was decided to be unseemly for one of their illustrious set. With a shout of "Clearly he's a dirty transcendental!", he was sent to the room of division for a meeting with Zero. Such meetings never end well.

Tulas Shorn (Vengeance) has been lynched. He was a Natural.


TS was lynched with ten hours left. It seemed odd to say that we couldn't lynch someone who was two short when there were over ten hours left in the day.

#353 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 01:55 AM

And I would say the same thing about the hammer vote:

View PostRashan, on 23 May 2012 - 01:33 AM, said:

all right sorry I've been busy tonight... I don't have a vote tally but as I said earlier I'm good with Tulas.

remove vote

Vote Tulas



Ten hours left in the day and you don't even bother to check whether or not you are the hammer or not?

I dunno, maybe people thought we weren't going to get anything more out of day one (even though most of the RP had been dropped by then, or at least Sheltatha's), but I really don't see the reasoning behind either of these.

#354 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:02 AM

View PostFener, on 24 May 2012 - 01:55 AM, said:

And I would say the same thing about the hammer vote:

View PostRashan, on 23 May 2012 - 01:33 AM, said:

all right sorry I've been busy tonight... I don't have a vote tally but as I said earlier I'm good with Tulas.

remove vote

Vote Tulas



Ten hours left in the day and you don't even bother to check whether or not you are the hammer or not?

I dunno, maybe people thought we weren't going to get anything more out of day one (even though most of the RP had been dropped by then, or at least Sheltatha's), but I really don't see the reasoning behind either of these.


I was drunk. I'll admit it. I logged in, saw a flurry of posts and thought oh fuck. That's the god's honest truth.

#355 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:05 AM



If you don't believe me, then look at this: http://www.youtube.c...&feature=relmfu

Clearly I drink.


#356 User is offline   Telas 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:20 AM

View PostFener, on 24 May 2012 - 01:34 AM, said:

TS was lynched with ten hours left. It seemed odd to say that we couldn't lynch someone who was two short when there were over ten hours left in the day.


Thought it was pretty clear that I wouldn't be able to play for the rest of the night. I didn't want to take the chance of a no lynch day, and it seemed pretty obvious that Tulas Shorn was the more popular possible lynch of the two. At any rate, if I were a killer I certainly wouldn't have NK Sheltatha on night 1, she was getting enough negative attention as it was, there was a good chance that she would have gotten lynched on day 2. Guess we shall see.

At any rate, I probably won't be on for the rest of the night. Not sure if I'll be able to get on before end of MAFIA day, though I should be able to. But just in case, I am going to

vote Rashan

For reasons stated above, by myself and by D'Riss. Hopefully there'll be lots of interesting stuff to read tomorrow!

#357 User is offline   Galain 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:25 AM

View PostD, on 23 May 2012 - 09:50 PM, said:

D'riss has returned to much fanfare! (/roleplay)


Rashan has become very proactive and helpful. It's too bad there isn't any way to know if this is due to me plopping a vote on him, or he would have done this on Day 2 anyways. My suspicion is the former - it's out of character compared to his Day 1 play since he didn't really do anything on his own on Day 1 (good when you want to avoid the random day 1 lynch over some small perceived error). Now all of a sudden he feels pressure to contribute or face people looking at him.

As for things being said about others

Fener - I think he needs to post more. I don't get much from him except "indignancy" about this and that.

Amp - The case is ok, but a bit of a stretch. As Telas points out, it can be interpreted either way.

Galain - Other than the "setting up lynches" thing at the end of Day 1, (which happen to be the 2 dead people - spooky) I'm not seeing much. Although the pre-emptive explanation at the top of this page made a slight wave on my scumdar. Answering accusations before they happen is a little suspicious.


I did that because of someone mentioning it on the last page, can't remember who, will take a look at it once i wake up again.

#358 User is offline   Galain 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:28 AM

View PostThyrllan, on 23 May 2012 - 11:37 PM, said:

morning all.
possible crazy with a k theory. The double quote in amps post, telas and karosis, very similar, omg they are ten scum buddies and discussed such yesterday.
Moving on from that one.

Of the two non interested parties (amp and korb) id be more interested in a Korbas vote at the minute, posts seem less reasoned than amp and just a more LOL type of vibe from him (that makes sense in my head)

and back to the two I'm interested in, fener seeks almost disinterested in the game day one, likely because of shellys spamming. Galains a high poster but I can't gather much content on it other than gut.

no quotes, on phone. Gonna stick a vote down to apply some pressure.


vote galain





Also Thyr, i totally agree, my posts have been contentless yet my brain hasn't been contentless.
If that makes sense.

I've been looking at behaviour, interaction, certain people avoiding communicating with eachother on-thread, or people coming up for eachother when one of them is pressured. I will post my findings once they're ready.

#359 User is offline   Galain 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:31 AM

View PostAnomandaris, on 23 May 2012 - 10:02 PM, said:

Amp, here is why I made that list of potential reasons for killing SL:

View PostTelas, on 23 May 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Just got up, surprised they killed off Shelly. I figured the killers would have left her around for the townies to take down. Which means that she must have been on to something. I believe she spent a good chunk of time accusing Ampelas, so when I have the time to go through the thread I'm going to read over her posts again to see if there's anything interesting in them that we may have missed.



View PostKarosis, on 23 May 2012 - 01:52 PM, said:

ok....it is odd to me that they killed shelly , simply because she was so controversial and would have definitely been a potential lynch target and discussed throughout the day. without going into too much wifom, this essentially resets us back to day 1 with both of our main scum suspects dead and confirmed town. dilemma.

it's possible that she was onto something at the end, and if someone wants to really look into that, great, but we can't assume it. i flat out said yesterday the killers would be crazy to kill shelly...and then they did. so it could just be deliberate attempt at confusion. also stalls our discussion quite a bit.

one thing that I do not like is that SL was really targeting Anomandaris at the end of the day and now ano is making lists (on noes, t3h scumz!) and actively investigating people who were not interested in shelly's lynch... lays a vote down pretty early too. almost seems too eager to help town find out why shelly was killed and then base his lynch on that.... smells of scum who knows too much and is taking the reins in the aftermath of night 1 confusion.

not sure what to make of it yet though. need some time to reread more.



The idea that Shelly was onto something is one of several possible MOs for her kill. The reason for the list was there are many other possibilities and I have a hard time believing paired killers discussing their night action via PM would agree that Shelly needed to go because her guesses were getting too close for comfort.

To reiterate, Shelly accused half of town for Pete's sake. Who was she "onto"? If people can scare up some quotes that show a clear leaning without a sudden change in vote from one suspect to another mere hours later, I would be more interested.

On the other hand, Amp and Korbas both did not seem that interested in Shelly on day 1. Why? Were they unworried because of the night kill action? Were they keeping their distance so as not to be linked with Shelly's death? Were they more blase' about Shelly's act because they knew she was town?





That's the kind of behaviour we should look for, in my opinion.

#360 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:38 AM

View PostGalain, on 24 May 2012 - 02:31 AM, said:

View PostAnomandaris, on 23 May 2012 - 10:02 PM, said:

Amp, here is why I made that list of potential reasons for killing SL:

View PostTelas, on 23 May 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Just got up, surprised they killed off Shelly. I figured the killers would have left her around for the townies to take down. Which means that she must have been on to something. I believe she spent a good chunk of time accusing Ampelas, so when I have the time to go through the thread I'm going to read over her posts again to see if there's anything interesting in them that we may have missed.



View PostKarosis, on 23 May 2012 - 01:52 PM, said:

ok....it is odd to me that they killed shelly , simply because she was so controversial and would have definitely been a potential lynch target and discussed throughout the day. without going into too much wifom, this essentially resets us back to day 1 with both of our main scum suspects dead and confirmed town. dilemma.

it's possible that she was onto something at the end, and if someone wants to really look into that, great, but we can't assume it. i flat out said yesterday the killers would be crazy to kill shelly...and then they did. so it could just be deliberate attempt at confusion. also stalls our discussion quite a bit.

one thing that I do not like is that SL was really targeting Anomandaris at the end of the day and now ano is making lists (on noes, t3h scumz!) and actively investigating people who were not interested in shelly's lynch... lays a vote down pretty early too. almost seems too eager to help town find out why shelly was killed and then base his lynch on that.... smells of scum who knows too much and is taking the reins in the aftermath of night 1 confusion.

not sure what to make of it yet though. need some time to reread more.



The idea that Shelly was onto something is one of several possible MOs for her kill. The reason for the list was there are many other possibilities and I have a hard time believing paired killers discussing their night action via PM would agree that Shelly needed to go because her guesses were getting too close for comfort.

To reiterate, Shelly accused half of town for Pete's sake. Who was she "onto"? If people can scare up some quotes that show a clear leaning without a sudden change in vote from one suspect to another mere hours later, I would be more interested.

On the other hand, Amp and Korbas both did not seem that interested in Shelly on day 1. Why? Were they unworried because of the night kill action? Were they keeping their distance so as not to be linked with Shelly's death? Were they more blase' about Shelly's act because they knew she was town?





That's the kind of behaviour we should look for, in my opinion.


So what are you thinking? Its all very well to throw a bunch of quotes out there to up your post count, but what is your case?

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