Looks like the zombie horde is starting to be culled. That's a good sign
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So, something was nagging me as I reread the OP. Here is how the Survivor role is described:
JLV, on 18 April 2012 - 04:39 PM, said:
Survivor - (Higher Time requirement, but very rewarding) - You only care about making it out of here alive. You hate all the bloody mess, and the whole situation is a complete nightmare for you. You just want to survive it and that is it.
Defense Rating = 3
Manipulate and coerce to victory
VC = Be alive when the game ends
Higher time requirement? That tells me this isn't just a bog standard role - there must be something interesting going on under the covers. I started thinking about what roles require a lot of time to play, and one in particular stood out - FM. Think about it - it makes perfect sense for a role called 'Survivor'. The player would have to jump from alt to alt, matching up timezones where possible to avoid suspicion, adopting the posting styles of other players.
I had the idea a while back and filed it away, because I didn't think it made sense to fearmonger unnecessarily. However, there is now clear evidence that this is in play and so I thought it was worth bringing to everyone's attention. Look at Serc's posts since Day 3 started and it is very clear that it is not the same person behind the alt. Gone is the joking facade in all its facets. Instead, we have someone playing seriously, and furthermore, someone trying to influence the interpretation on the Night Scene. Here's his post about it:
Serc, on 02 May 2012 - 08:25 AM, said:
Is that how you guys are interpreting the Night Scene, or are you guessing? I'm not disagreeing, I was just trying to figure out what happened, myself.
"Elsewhere, a group of zombies staggered into a sole human. Surely they would catch their pray tonight, with no ghostly apparitions to distract them. But, the prey fumbled with a small figure in his hands, causing one of their Zombie brethren to stumble from the shadows, dragging another through the glass window, down to their deaths. The distraction gave enough time for the human to escape, unharmed."
This paragraph had me thinking that is was more the Priest or Survivor than the VooDoo guy that killed the two zombies in defense.I dont even see the VooDoo master even needing zombies. Seems like he'd need something from the living. Could be wrong. And mainly because the next paragraph sounds more like the VooDoo Master, than this one. And this guy is holding a figure. I guess it could be some sort of VooDoo doll, but it could be a holy relic in the shape of a god as well. But I was thinking that its possible that it was the Survivor with the figure. His description for winning is written "Manipulate and coerce to victory." The method for killing seems like a cohersion of some sort, possibly. Cohersed the Zombie to attack another so he could "survive" by getting away. It's a stretch, just trying to cover all remotely possible explanations. I'd lean more towards the Priest here. Because in the next paragraph:
"Another horde found their target, never noticing they were short a member. But when they reached him, he communicated. The combined might of the Zombies, the hivemind, communicated back. It would not be good to feast upon the flesh of this human now, for he could open the path to a greater feast soon. They left. The zombies were beginning to hunger."
This one had me thinking that the zombies tried to attack the voodoo guy, but he somehow talked to them. And sinse they left convinced this target was going to "open the path to a greater feast," it was this guy that made me think of the voodoo demon summoning. Can't imagine anyone but the VooDoo Master being able to talk to the zombies. Plus he would be the only one with something to offer them. They could feast on every single human if the demon gets summoned, because it says if demon does get summoned, then VooDoo guy leaves, and demon kills all the mortals. Zombie Feast if you ask me. Can't imagine the priest fitting here. This one almost has to be the VooDoo Master, imo.
But there's no telling. I'm still trying to piece it all together. It could have been the voodoo guy in both paragraphs, I guess. Two seperate attacks? First one he kills two. Second time he convinces them to leave him be? I really cant see the VooDoo guy being responsible for the zombie deaths unless he's the same guy that then communicates with the second group. Also seems to be a stretch.
I'd lean towards Priest killing the two zombies(then even Survivor over VooDoo if not), and VooDoo doing the communicating.
Props to PS for the phrasing of scenes so far.
Also wanted to add that I also toyed with the notion that VooDoo might have killed the healer, but we still have 3 pairs of murderers. One failed. One hit Healer. One Hit Zombie. I'd suggest even that it was the Lone Avenger that killed the healer, possibly thinking Liosan a faction leader over VooDoo.
So we're gonna have Priest killing zombies, VooDoo killing any humans, Lone Avenger killing any humans, searching for a leader(although he might benefit killing zombies off with human factions first), and Survivor being the biggest unknown when it comes to his possibilities. Probably leaves VooDoo and Zombies equally as dangerous. Zombies can gank(maybe even gank themselves, who says they cant mistake a target), and VooDoo just needing enough maimed bodies to summon a demon that ends the game while not really having to worry about the zombies IF he was the one able to talk to them.
Wow. I feel like we're going into brain surgery. We need to work out some general consensus on what everyone can hopefully agree really happened.
I mean, the analysis seems perfectly reasonable, but it really doesn't fit with how Serc has played up to this point. I've highlighted the parts of his post where he talks about the Survivor role in bold. Doesn't it sound a bit like he's trying to define a role that he already knows stuff about?
If my theory is correct, then the Survivor was originally Liosan, but jumped into Serc last night. The CF we saw of Liosan would actually have been the information about the original player in Serc - eg. Serc before Day 3 was Gust Hubb, a healer in Rivera's group. It might be worth going back and taking a look at the style of Liosan's posts from Days 1 and 2 - do they match what Serc has said so far today? Unfortunately I don't have time to check at the moment.
There are still a couple of loose ends that need to be tied up though. You might ask, for example, why the FM would jump to someone who would be so difficult to mimic. It would be very difficult to follow the performance that Serc put on on Day 2. I hypothesize that the survivor can only jump every other night, and that having selected Serc as his target on Night 1 he had no choice but to make the jump today, regardless of how the Serc alt had been behaving. This might also go some way to explaining why Serc was acting out so much - if he knew that he was going to be usurped during Night 2, then you could imagine him deciding to do everything he could to make himself hard to replace seamlessly.
There's also the question of whether it's worth acting on this information. The Survivor's victory conditions are not mutually exclusive with the human factions, after all. But I would argue that an FM is a pretty dangerous player to keep around. If we leave it a couple of days he'll be gone and we'll have no idea where he is. I think we should act now.
Vote Serc
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