[Path-Shaper]

I'm horribly busy. Timer starts in 20 minutes.
Not that anyone posted anything......

[Korlat]

Okaros, on 16 April 2012 - 01:42 AM, said:

Barghast, on 15 April 2012 - 11:41 PM, said:

Okaros, on 15 April 2012 - 10:26 PM, said:

Kessobahn, on 15 April 2012 - 03:53 PM, said:

To me this has been a very confusing game so far but enjoyable. Who's around? Atrahal's case ^ is very interesting, it is well thought out and makes a lot of sense. The only thing i'd say is that if we think he is not HoA then another target may be better for today, when the number of players is decreased then we could look at lynching Alkend but I personally find Korlat the better candidate of coming up HoA.

I am around for a bit. I think that Atrahal's case is very interesting. And since it focuses on someone who could be either a part or either faction or a totally separate party. While I am still against lynching. Their is one for sure revealed HoA player and that is Merrid. To just follow your line of thinking kesso.

What makes Merrid a "for sure revealed HoA player"? I don't understand that as there is nothing blatantly stating Merrid is HoA, which you could only know if you purchased the contract that told you his role/alignment/titles. Did you buy that contract?

No I did not buy his information. But I did read his post

Merrid, on 13 April 2012 - 12:12 AM, said:

Fuck anyone getting money for this info. I am a merchant and i did not take a night action.

If you wsnt to pay for my faction go ahead. Not going to announce that.

Now it could just be me but I don't think that the nepeth, cult or the thieves have merchants. But you know who does have Merchants someone who is a member of the HoA. So really I guess I just put two and two together and came up with 4. Sorry to have implied that I knew his exact role and alignment. I don't. But I do feel pretty secure in reading his post and saying that he is HoA. I mean who wouldn't. I guess only someone who doesn't bother to read up on the thread.

I don't understand. Why are you taking his reveal at face value with no questioning of it? You should NEVER accept a reveal without at least considering the possibility that whoever gave it might be lying. Merrid was reacting to the fact that his information was posted on the market - do you think he would have admitted it if he was the assassin? I doubt it somehow. Merchant is the 'safe' reveal option in this game, because unlike say 'finder' or 'warrior' it implies no belligerence towards the other players. So as far as I'm concerned that's what Merrid would say no matter what his role actually is. To base assumptions like that on what he has claimed outright is foolish, IMO. And certainly he is not 'confirmed HoA', as you claim.

I'm very surprised at logic like this - I can't believe someone would come to this conclusion if they were thinking rationally and logically. So I can only assume that something else is going on here. Maybe Okaros bought the info on Merrid and therefore knows his alignment for certain? That would make the original statement about Merrid being 'confirmed HoA' a slip-up and this an attempt to cover his tracks...would make some sense.

[Anthras]

So I feel like I missed something... where did the idea that there are more Nepeth come from? We started with 13 players, we can probably assume at least 1 is an independent/special role not on either faction.

I thought we were going with the assumption that HoA would have the advantage when it comes to the market, but the grand alliance would have the more powerful roles? I don't see the need for unbalanced factions there, but as I said I may be missing something. I'm perfectly content to let the NAs continue to do the killing, unless someone can give me a better reason here.

I dunno, I just feel better playing it safe and not outing myself by going after one or the other faction.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3. 32 hours remaining

12 Players still alive: Alkend, Anthras, Atrahal, Barghast, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Korlat, Merrid, Okaros, Omtose, Tiamatha

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Alkend ( Atrahal )

Players not voted: Alkend, Anthras, Atrahal, Barghast, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Korlat, Merrid, Okaros, Omtose, Tiamatha

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 16 April 2012 - 12:33 PM

[Path-Shaper]

It is around lunch when I am asked to receive another new council member. The guest is someone I had never expected to see. Mage Dada is a dealer in pleasure, in dreams, in the supplanting of physicality by the own mind. I could no-one less suitable for the office of Chief Physician apart perhaps from the Court Chief Tortuter or the Night Prophet himself, but it seems the mage has prepared a little speech on how he means to fulfill his responsibilities. It is stammered and stuttering but endearing, and I need to suppress the dire urge to pat him on the head before I send him on his way. Here is at the least one man who is going to take his duty seriously, and not just the spoils of it.

Mage Dada of the Cult of Vultures has purchased the title of Hekim-Bashi (Chief Physician – Courtly Title).

[Korlat]

Atrahal, on 15 April 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

Ok, I decided it was important to go back and read the names, and I discovered...well, a lot.

Alkend, on 15 April 2012 - 03:40 AM, said:

I read that as more that the Dreadfather has the potential to wreak havock on the thieves but is currently allied with them. Which isn't to say that the allience will be permanant through the game. Would make sense since there's another role out there, I'd guess they'd be semi-allied with the Houses of Agreement as well.

Also, if you take a look at the bazaar you'll see that the Riddle of Despair has been marked at how much it's been used, which is all the actions except the last.

Well, this is an interesting post. Why do you think the alliance with the Thieves (and by some extent, also the entire Beggars/Vultures/Nepeth "side") would be temporary? All it actually says about him in relation to alliances and Thieves is this: "It will chafe on him that his allies are the Thieves he usually hunts." This already sounds permanent - the contrast between "his allies are the Thieves he usually hunts." Now, if we're talking in the context of actions taken by players in this game (which we are, not only because the only other paragraph dealt with the death of a Roled player, but, well, be patient), this can't be just idle background but actual actions. "Usually" leads me to believe he been using his actions on the Thieves - capital T, the "house" in the Guild of Beggars - most of the time so far. Now, what actions could those be? Obviously they're negative - the scene says it will "chafe" him and later describes their alliance as "It is like a hunting cat teamed with hares: a recipe for disaster." This sounds like he could probably destroy any of the the Thieves easily and if the cat eats all the hares, well, let's just say the Guild of Beggars would probably be hurting. "Are" implies nothing but simple fact, not possible change or any equivocation of who his allies are.

Oh yes, I forgot to explain who "he" is. The Dreadfather is actually "Mage Hassan the Dreadfather" of the House of Terror - which just so happens to be part of the Cult of Vultures faction. It even slipped by me but he's referenced as a member of the Cult in this scene. So, we know their alliance isn't temporary - the OP clearly states that the Vultures, Nepeth, and Beggars were clearly allied together and all against the House of Agreements - two sides like we've been saying.

And then Alkend says this "Would make sense since there's another role out there, I'd guess they'd be semi-allied with the Houses of Agreement as well." Wait, what? "Another role?" Why would he assume there's just two mystery roles in the game? Also...the OP states:

"Mystery factions have their victory conditions in a seperate PM. Mystery factions can be on either side of the equation."

If you're playing this game at all or know about the previous one, it's obvious that probably every player is Roled from the master list (minus the ones who died last game, of course) and Roles are very, very different than Factions. Each Faction usually has a good number of roles - many around 15 Roles or so - so it's very clear that most of the players in this game will belong to one of the four main factions listed in the OP.

More evidence:

"Nevertheless, the tight discipline that is Hassan's one rescue line hasn't yet snapped."

The list of players actually says that Mage Hassan is the Dreadfather. And line also implies something else, like Hassan (who must be somehow in charge or highly involved with the Thieves) has an ability or item or condition that is holding his little group together. And maybe it's totally unrelated to the Thieves, I have no idea; it could be some other condition for the Cult of Vutures.

On a separate but related note, from the OP:

"In the days to come, he [Huassan ibn Qolat, of the House of Luxury, of the House of Agreements, the current Defterdar] and his supporters would seek to outwit the grand alliance opposing him through legal and illegal means, and they [Vultures/Beggars/Nepeth] would seek to do the same to him. He would have the vastness of his resources and connections and, very importantly, the initiative, they would have numbers and the opportunity they craved.:"

Ok...so we are getting numbers information here. The House of Agreements appears to be up against a "grand alliance", and his opponents (Vultures/Beggars/Nepeth) have the advantage of numbers (obvious) and opportunity (not sure what this could be, but it has to increase their "opportunity" to elect the next Defterdar, as they have already been trying to hold new elections, which prompted ibn Qolat's request to be Defterdar and solely in charge, with no Council, which is the act that catalyzed this game and the circumstances of its factions). The HoA, on the other hand, probably have boadloads of cash and/or goods (hence the title purchases) and "connections", which almost implies off thread communications.

That's a lot of info. And I do this to say, Alkend, how could you make so many obvious mistakes? Referring to and assuming the Dreadfather was "a mystery role" and was probably allied with the HoA as well, just like the "other role"? Either he's had contact with the Dreadfather and didn't realize he was a Cult member (or maybe he just never bothered to look up the name), or he's actually got knowledge of this supposed "other role", which is "probably also allied with the House of Alliances." There is just too much info here that has to come from somewhere else.

And even though he could be aligned with either faction and be able to make the post above, my real suspicion is that he assumed the Dreadfather was a "mystery role" like he was and misspoke when he implied there were only two of their kind. If he's somehow allied with both "sides", that would make a lot of sense too, or if he was able to switch his allegiance. In the last game we had single-Role Faction members whose VCs were very much out of their hands; for instance, they aligned with the Faction of the first player that died. Not much of a choice. Also, he would probably be more likely to slip up and talk about "mystery roles" if he was the one person from a mystery faction. Seems like he is or could be aligned with either faction if he chose to, though, unlike the previous game. You wouldn't assume something like that had changed...unless you had good reason.

So Alkend, you did disappear, you have low-posted, and I accuse you of making massive slipups that reveal you know more than a lot of people and should be considered extremely dangerous as a "mystery" element.

I can't remember what the rules are for the weekend, but

Vote Alkend

If that needs to be redone on Monday to be valid, then this was just for emphasis.

edit - added the word "goods"

There's some interesting points in this case - there's definitely some weird logic jumps in Alkend's post that could imply he has more knowledge than he's letting on. At the same time, I'm a little reticent to press a case based on a lack of knowledge about the player list. That list is only present in the 79.75 Game Thread - it is not easily accessible and I don't recall seeing anything anywhere that said it was necessary for understanding this game. Now obviously, you'd hope that people would do their research and chase up and understand that list, but given its obscurity I can't blame people for not doing so.

But anyway, I agree with you there are some inconsistencies here. He assumes that the Dreadfather is not part of the Grand Alliance proper (which I forgive, as I explained above), but from that implies that there must be a role on the HoA side to counter-balance this. For that to make sense, you have to assume that the factions are balanced by symmetry. However, this is obviously not the case, or the HoA side would not have all the titles thus far. So it would seem to follow that Alkend must have some extra information. The question therefore becomes: does him having extra info making him dangerous enough that we should consider lynching? I need to have a think about this.

EDIT: X-post with a title purchase.

This post has been edited by Korlat: 16 April 2012 - 01:03 PM

[Kessobahn]

Path-Shaper, on 16 April 2012 - 12:56 PM, said:

It is around lunch when I am asked to receive another new council member. The guest is someone I had never expected to see. Mage Dada is a dealer in pleasure, in dreams, in the supplanting of physicality by the own mind. I could no-one less suitable for the office of Chief Physician apart perhaps from the Court Chief Tortuter or the Night Prophet himself, but it seems the mage has prepared a little speech on how he means to fulfill his responsibilities. It is stammered and stuttering but endearing, and I need to suppress the dire urge to pat him on the head before I send him on his way. Here is at the least one man who is going to take his duty seriously, and not just the spoils of it.

Mage Dada of the Cult of Vultures has purchased the title of Hekim-Bashi (Chief Physician – Courtly Title).

Quote

Hekim-Bashi (Chief Physician – Courtly Title): 30000 dinari
Hekim-Bashi grants the following ability:
Tinctures and Tonics
Phase: Day only. Cost: 1 Powder, 1 Essence
Each day, you can target two players. You may not target yourself. For the remainder of the Day/ night cycle, these players are Healed.

[Kessobahn]

very interesting that a CoV player has purchased a title, so that's 4 of the 9 titles already gone.

[Anthras]

That's a good title. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't most heals have a specific phase? That one goes the full day/night cycle, and he gets two of them. No self healing though.

[Merrid]

I dont like kessos lets lynch post. using the bazaar is how the poor make money. It reads to me like "now that i am rich and have advantages, lets lynch people who may be trying to follow. "

[Path-Shaper]

Did someone just delete the H&M post of day 3 trading?

If so... :facepalm:

[Kessobahn]

Merrid, on 16 April 2012 - 02:37 PM, said:

I dont like kessos lets lynch post. using the bazaar is how the poor make money. It reads to me like "now that i am rich and have advantages, lets lynch people who may be trying to follow. "

No I think it is how the HoA have bought 3 titles already. I think the people wanting to advocate a no lynch scenario are the ones we should lynch to prevent from winning or gaining the last two titles.

[Kessobahn]

Path-Shaper, on 16 April 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

Did someone just delete the H&M post of day 3 trading?

If so... :facepalm:

You're joking!! That is very idiotic! Is there a way of getting it back?

[Atrahal]

Path-Shaper, on 16 April 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

Did someone just delete the H&M post of day 3 trading?

If so... :facepalm:

Yeah, um...what the hell?

[Korlat]

I can still see it...do you want me to copy it out into a new post?

EDIT: Done, and I fixed up the formatting so it looks the same too.

This post has been edited by Korlat: 16 April 2012 - 03:28 PM

[Atrahal]

Anthras, on 16 April 2012 - 12:30 PM, said:

So I feel like I missed something... where did the idea that there are more Nepeth come from? We started with 13 players, we can probably assume at least 1 is an independent/special role not on either faction.

I thought we were going with the assumption that HoA would have the advantage when it comes to the market, but the grand alliance would have the more powerful roles? I don't see the need for unbalanced factions there, but as I said I may be missing something. I'm perfectly content to let the NAs continue to do the killing, unless someone can give me a better reason here.

I dunno, I just feel better playing it safe and not outing myself by going after one or the other faction.

I already showed why I believe this to be true, see the underlined in my quoted post below this. The OP states that the grand alliance against the HoA has the "advantage of numbers", which means pretty clearly I think that HoA has fewer players than combined Vultures/Beggars/Nepeth.

Korlat, on 16 April 2012 - 01:01 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 15 April 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

Ok, I decided it was important to go back and read the names, and I discovered...well, a lot.

Alkend, on 15 April 2012 - 03:40 AM, said:

I read that as more that the Dreadfather has the potential to wreak havock on the thieves but is currently allied with them. Which isn't to say that the allience will be permanant through the game. Would make sense since there's another role out there, I'd guess they'd be semi-allied with the Houses of Agreement as well.

Also, if you take a look at the bazaar you'll see that the Riddle of Despair has been marked at how much it's been used, which is all the actions except the last.

Well, this is an interesting post. Why do you think the alliance with the Thieves (and by some extent, also the entire Beggars/Vultures/Nepeth "side") would be temporary? All it actually says about him in relation to alliances and Thieves is this: "It will chafe on him that his allies are the Thieves he usually hunts." This already sounds permanent - the contrast between "his allies are the Thieves he usually hunts." Now, if we're talking in the context of actions taken by players in this game (which we are, not only because the only other paragraph dealt with the death of a Roled player, but, well, be patient), this can't be just idle background but actual actions. "Usually" leads me to believe he been using his actions on the Thieves - capital T, the "house" in the Guild of Beggars - most of the time so far. Now, what actions could those be? Obviously they're negative - the scene says it will "chafe" him and later describes their alliance as "It is like a hunting cat teamed with hares: a recipe for disaster." This sounds like he could probably destroy any of the the Thieves easily and if the cat eats all the hares, well, let's just say the Guild of Beggars would probably be hurting. "Are" implies nothing but simple fact, not possible change or any equivocation of who his allies are.

Oh yes, I forgot to explain who "he" is. The Dreadfather is actually "Mage Hassan the Dreadfather" of the House of Terror - which just so happens to be part of the Cult of Vultures faction. It even slipped by me but he's referenced as a member of the Cult in this scene. So, we know their alliance isn't temporary - the OP clearly states that the Vultures, Nepeth, and Beggars were clearly allied together and all against the House of Agreements - two sides like we've been saying.

And then Alkend says this "Would make sense since there's another role out there, I'd guess they'd be semi-allied with the Houses of Agreement as well." Wait, what? "Another role?" Why would he assume there's just two mystery roles in the game? Also...the OP states:

"Mystery factions have their victory conditions in a seperate PM. Mystery factions can be on either side of the equation."

If you're playing this game at all or know about the previous one, it's obvious that probably every player is Roled from the master list (minus the ones who died last game, of course) and Roles are very, very different than Factions. Each Faction usually has a good number of roles - many around 15 Roles or so - so it's very clear that most of the players in this game will belong to one of the four main factions listed in the OP.

More evidence:

"Nevertheless, the tight discipline that is Hassan's one rescue line hasn't yet snapped."

The list of players actually says that Mage Hassan is the Dreadfather. And line also implies something else, like Hassan (who must be somehow in charge or highly involved with the Thieves) has an ability or item or condition that is holding his little group together. And maybe it's totally unrelated to the Thieves, I have no idea; it could be some other condition for the Cult of Vutures.

On a separate but related note, from the OP:

"In the days to come, he [Huassan ibn Qolat, of the House of Luxury, of the House of Agreements, the current Defterdar] and his supporters would seek to outwit the grand alliance opposing him through legal and illegal means, and they [Vultures/Beggars/Nepeth] would seek to do the same to him. He would have the vastness of his resources and connections and, very importantly, the initiative, they would have numbers and the opportunity they craved.:"

Ok...so we are getting numbers information here. The House of Agreements appears to be up against a "grand alliance", and his opponents (Vultures/Beggars/Nepeth) have the advantage of numbers (obvious) and opportunity (not sure what this could be, but it has to increase their "opportunity" to elect the next Defterdar, as they have already been trying to hold new elections, which prompted ibn Qolat's request to be Defterdar and solely in charge, with no Council, which is the act that catalyzed this game and the circumstances of its factions). The HoA, on the other hand, probably have boadloads of cash and/or goods (hence the title purchases) and "connections", which almost implies off thread communications.

That's a lot of info. And I do this to say, Alkend, how could you make so many obvious mistakes? Referring to and assuming the Dreadfather was "a mystery role" and was probably allied with the HoA as well, just like the "other role"? Either he's had contact with the Dreadfather and didn't realize he was a Cult member (or maybe he just never bothered to look up the name), or he's actually got knowledge of this supposed "other role", which is "probably also allied with the House of Alliances." There is just too much info here that has to come from somewhere else.

And even though he could be aligned with either faction and be able to make the post above, my real suspicion is that he assumed the Dreadfather was a "mystery role" like he was and misspoke when he implied there were only two of their kind. If he's somehow allied with both "sides", that would make a lot of sense too, or if he was able to switch his allegiance. In the last game we had single-Role Faction members whose VCs were very much out of their hands; for instance, they aligned with the Faction of the first player that died. Not much of a choice. Also, he would probably be more likely to slip up and talk about "mystery roles" if he was the one person from a mystery faction. Seems like he is or could be aligned with either faction if he chose to, though, unlike the previous game. You wouldn't assume something like that had changed...unless you had good reason.

So Alkend, you did disappear, you have low-posted, and I accuse you of making massive slipups that reveal you know more than a lot of people and should be considered extremely dangerous as a "mystery" element.

I can't remember what the rules are for the weekend, but

Vote Alkend

If that needs to be redone on Monday to be valid, then this was just for emphasis.

edit - added the word "goods"

There's some interesting points in this case - there's definitely some weird logic jumps in Alkend's post that could imply he has more knowledge than he's letting on. At the same time, I'm a little reticent to press a case based on a lack of knowledge about the player list. That list is only present in the 79.75 Game Thread - it is not easily accessible and I don't recall seeing anything anywhere that said it was necessary for understanding this game. Now obviously, you'd hope that people would do their research and chase up and understand that list, but given its obscurity I can't blame people for not doing so.

But anyway, I agree with you there are some inconsistencies here. He assumes that the Dreadfather is not part of the Grand Alliance proper (which I forgive, as I explained above), but from that implies that there must be a role on the HoA side to counter-balance this. For that to make sense, you have to assume that the factions are balanced by symmetry. However, this is obviously not the case, or the HoA side would not have all the titles thus far. So it would seem to follow that Alkend must have some extra information. The question therefore becomes: does him having extra info making him dangerous enough that we should consider lynching? I need to have a think about this.

EDIT: X-post with a title purchase.

To address the player list issue - I'm not saying he just "forgot to check it", which anyone could do, but he actually began to make assumptions based on that error that reveals he has knowledge of the mystery factions. And, boys and girls, what's the best way to have insider information about a mystery faction? Why, to be a part of it, of course. That was the point.

Also, the balance is described in the OP (also in my post above); HoA has the "initiative", "vast resources," and "connections." VBN has "opportunity" and "numbers".

[Atrahal]

Korlat, on 16 April 2012 - 03:22 PM, said:

I can still see it...do you want me to copy it out into a new post?

EDIT: Done, and I fixed up the formatting so it looks the same too.

Nice, good save man.

[Anthras]

Oh, wow I completely missed that stuff. Must have read that while I was half asleep or something.

Okay, I will support a lynch then. I have Merrid as HoA, if only because of his "reveal". Someone mentioned Korlat, I believe, and I'd like to know why. And Alkend was the other choice. My feel on Korlat is that she is not HoA, and Alkend I don't feel either way.

I'm willing to follow here, mostly because the opportunity has been there to buy information on these guys, and I've not done so for anyone, so I'd feel more comfortable voting along with someone who is in the know, ya know?

[Atrahal]

Korlat, on 16 April 2012 - 01:01 PM, said:

There's some interesting points in this case - there's definitely some weird logic jumps in Alkend's post that could imply he has more knowledge than he's letting on. At the same time, I'm a little reticent to press a case based on a lack of knowledge about the player list. That list is only present in the 79.75 Game Thread - it is not easily accessible and I don't recall seeing anything anywhere that said it was necessary for understanding this game. Now obviously, you'd hope that people would do their research and chase up and understand that list, but given its obscurity I can't blame people for not doing so.

But anyway, I agree with you there are some inconsistencies here. He assumes that the Dreadfather is not part of the Grand Alliance proper (which I forgive, as I explained above), but from that implies that there must be a role on the HoA side to counter-balance this. For that to make sense, you have to assume that the factions are balanced by symmetry. However, this is obviously not the case, or the HoA side would not have all the titles thus far. So it would seem to follow that Alkend must have some extra information. The question therefore becomes: does him having extra info making him dangerous enough that we should consider lynching? I need to have a think about this.

EDIT: X-post with a title purchase.

Just another thought I had - we discussed balance early on day 1, and I pointed out that with mystery factions plus the 3 vs. 1 setup means that "balance" could be determined by the relative strength/weakness of roles, goods production, cash, etc. Not by player numbers alone. In fact, the OP implies the opposite - that the number are NOT balanced, which reinforces my earlier theory.

[Atrahal]

Anthras, on 16 April 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

Oh, wow I completely missed that stuff. Must have read that while I was half asleep or something.

Okay, I will support a lynch then. I have Merrid as HoA, if only because of his "reveal". Someone mentioned Korlat, I believe, and I'd like to know why. And Alkend was the other choice. My feel on Korlat is that she is not HoA, and Alkend I don't feel either way.

I'm willing to follow here, mostly because the opportunity has been there to buy information on these guys, and I've not done so for anyone, so I'd feel more comfortable voting along with someone who is in the know, ya know?

I just made a pretty large case on Alkend - you don't feel either way or have anything to say about it? That's kinda weird. I'd like to hear your thoughts on Alkend's play so far, the slipup he just made, and how that relates to the context of a lynch and his alignment. I don't think you can get away with an "I dunnno" on this one.

--- Also , who are you "following"? How would anyone of us know who is "in the know" without a direct reveal or off-thread info or a Bazaar purchase (which you deny)? Are you just waiting on someone in particular to vote first? Cause I mean, that's what it looks like you're saying.