[Tsundoku]

What the hell????

Some bunch with apparently a good track record of predicting election results has said Trump would beat Hillary or Bernie.

http://www.news.com....2769565fc7f27c2

If that holds true, then it's official: USAnians are no longer fit to govern themselves and should return to the UK. Can't be any worse.

http://forum.malazan...ost__p__1223698

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 09 March 2016 - 07:50 AM

[Terez]

NewsAU said:

That’s according to the Primary Model, a statistical analysis model developed by Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpoth, which has correctly predicted the last five US elections since it was introduced in 1996.

Those were easy elections to predict. I'd be more impressed if they predicted every state correctly like 538 did. 538 is bearish on Trump.

Norpoth said:

After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.

This isn't true. Republicans held the White House from 1981-1992. FDR died in his 4th term.

There are better ways to follow US politics, especially on social media where you can just follow one or two halfway-credible political publications. 538 and maybe Vox, though there's a weird Hillary bias at the latter. Weirder than the generic Hillary bias seen everywhere in the MSM.

[Tsundoku]

"Bearish"? Sorry, not an adjective we use much here.

[Terez]

Just some market lingo. Bullish, you're betting on it. Bearish, you're betting against.

http://www.investope...d-bear-markets/

[Tsundoku]

Thanks. I'd heard them a few times in reference to the stock market, but never before with elections.

I had always thought a bull market was increasing in value, but a bear market was decreasing?

[Terez]

Tsundoku, on 09 March 2016 - 12:06 PM, said:

Thanks. I'd heard them a few times in reference to the stock market, but never before with elections.

I had always thought a bull market was increasing in value, but a bear market was decreasing?

Nah, it's not what the market is doing so much as how different groups feel about the market. When a stock (or the larger market) is decreasing, a bear will sell and a bull will buy.

[EmperorMagus]

Tsundoku, on 09 March 2016 - 12:06 PM, said:

Thanks. I'd heard them a few times in reference to the stock market, but never before with elections.

I had always thought a bull market was increasing in value, but a bear market was decreasing?

It's as Terez said, they call the different groups bullish and bearish.
I think they were trying to make books about markets a little less torture-y and more interesting. Reading about all these animal analogues they make up may keep you awake. But that's just my theory.

Terez, right now, how likely do you think is Cruz for the Republican nominee? I'm thinking it's 50% Trump, 40% Cruz, 10% anyone else.
(I don't really mean the polls, the public ones are mostly useless as we've experienced again and again)

What about Bernie? I really don't like his chances right now and that makes me sad.

[Terez]

The odds are about right for the GOP, except 10% for "anyone else" might be too high.

Bernie's chances are not the greatest but they got a whole lot better last night. We are done with the Deep South states where H dominated and Bernie has a shot at a few landslides of his own. His outlook just got significantly better in the Midwest. We'll know more next Tuesday when Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and Florida vote. I suspect Bernie will win big in MO. Everyone is reluctant to trust the polling in IL and OH after the MI debacle. FL will probably go for H but not by the same margins as states like MS and AL.

This post has been edited by Terez: 09 March 2016 - 09:15 PM

[Nevyn]

EmperorMagus, on 09 March 2016 - 09:04 PM, said:

Tsundoku, on 09 March 2016 - 12:06 PM, said:

Thanks. I'd heard them a few times in reference to the stock market, but never before with elections.

I had always thought a bull market was increasing in value, but a bear market was decreasing?

It's as Terez said, they call the different groups bullish and bearish.
I think they were trying to make books about markets a little less torture-y and more interesting. Reading about all these animal analogues they make up may keep you awake. But that's just my theory.

Terez, right now, how likely do you think is Cruz for the Republican nominee? I'm thinking it's 50% Trump, 40% Cruz, 10% anyone else.
(I don't really mean the polls, the public ones are mostly useless as we've experienced again and again)

What about Bernie? I really don't like his chances right now and that makes me sad.

10% is probably not far often given the odds of a brokered convention. Cruz is almost as polarizing as Trump, and on later ballots just about anyone could get in the mix. The question is would any Kasich/Rubio delegates move to Cruz to block trump?

Bernie has a major uphill battle because of the superdelegates.

[Terez]

The GOP might not be able to force a brokered convention with these winner-take-all states coming up, and neither Kasich nor Rubio will be able to justify staying in the race any longer if they don't win their home states, both of which vote on Tuesday (Ohio and Florida respectively). So increasingly Republicans are coming to realize that Cruz is their only chance to stop Trump. They hate it very much, but they're resigned to it. For a while many said they'd prefer Trump to Cruz, and that was an understandable position. But then Trump started inciting violence at his rallies and they realized that Cruz, terrible as he is, does not appear to be Hitler. Trump's numbers in national polling (i.e. vs Hillary and Bernie) have taken a nosedive since the thuggishness at his rallies has gotten national press attention.

[Nevyn]

Terez, on 10 March 2016 - 08:46 AM, said:

The GOP might not be able to force a brokered convention with these winner-take-all states coming up, and neither Kasich nor Rubio will be able to justify staying in the race any longer if they don't win their home states, both of which vote on Tuesday (Ohio and Florida respectively). So increasingly Republicans are coming to realize that Cruz is their only chance to stop Trump. They hate it very much, but they're resigned to it. For a while many said they'd prefer Trump to Cruz, and that was an understandable position. But then Trump started inciting violence at his rallies and they realized that Cruz, terrible as he is, does not appear to be Hitler. Trump's numbers in national polling (i.e. vs Hillary and Bernie) have taken a nosedive since the thuggishness at his rallies has gotten national press attention.

Cruz would lose the general pretty badly though, I think.

Kasich still has a shot in Ohio. If he wins and Rubio loses Florida and drops, Kasich's numbers could spike especially with many Northern states to come. If Trump takes Ohio and Florida, then yeah it is probably Trump or Cruz.

Note that all the party elders pushing against Trump though are not (or not yet) pushing Cruz. Romney is pushing Kasich AND Rubio.

[Terez]

Nevyn, on 10 March 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Cruz would lose the general pretty badly though, I think.

Probably. But Trump would destroy the party. Of course, Cruz might too, but the voters aren't giving them very many options this year, and at least Cruz isn't embarrassing them. Yet. I personally think Cruz might be worse. He has no compunctions about blowing up the global economy to make petty political gains. I don't think even Trump would do that. But Trump might be Hitler, so... good luck GOP.

Nevyn, on 10 March 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Kasich still has a shot in Ohio. If he wins and Rubio loses Florida and drops, Kasich's numbers could spike especially with many Northern states to come. If Trump takes Ohio and Florida, then yeah it is probably Trump or Cruz.

Even Kasich's chances are pretty thin. Rubio's are pretty nonexistent at this point. Maybe he'll surprise us like Bernie did in Michigan, but I tend to doubt it. We'll see on Tuesday. It will be a day of truth for both parties.

Nevyn, on 10 March 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Note that all the party elders pushing against Trump though are not (or not yet) pushing Cruz. Romney is pushing Kasich AND Rubio.

Yeah, many haven't given up yet. You can see them breaking toward Cruz in the lower ranks, though. None of them have faith in Kasich or Rubio at this point; the elders are just in denial. They're still hanging on to that hope of a brokered convention; they're silently hoping Cruz keeps Trump from getting a majority so they can crown Romney, or whoever.

Romney filed his FEC paperwork. Or, someone filed it for him.

[Nevyn]

Terez, on 10 March 2016 - 09:41 PM, said:

Nevyn, on 10 March 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Cruz would lose the general pretty badly though, I think.

Probably. But Trump would destroy the party. Of course, Cruz might too, but the voters aren't giving them very many options this year, and at least Cruz isn't embarrassing them. Yet. I personally think Cruz might be worse. He has no compunctions about blowing up the global economy to make petty political gains. I don't think even Trump would do that. But Trump might be Hitler, so... good luck GOP.

Nevyn, on 10 March 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Kasich still has a shot in Ohio. If he wins and Rubio loses Florida and drops, Kasich's numbers could spike especially with many Northern states to come. If Trump takes Ohio and Florida, then yeah it is probably Trump or Cruz.

Even Kasich's chances are pretty thin. Rubio's are pretty nonexistent at this point. Maybe he'll surprise us like Bernie did in Michigan, but I tend to doubt it. We'll see on Tuesday. It will be a day of truth for both parties.

Nevyn, on 10 March 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Note that all the party elders pushing against Trump though are not (or not yet) pushing Cruz. Romney is pushing Kasich AND Rubio.

Yeah, many haven't given up yet. You can see them breaking toward Cruz in the lower ranks, though. None of them have faith in Kasich or Rubio at this point; the elders are just in denial. They're still hanging on to that hope of a brokered convention; they're silently hoping Cruz keeps Trump from getting a majority so they can crown Romney, or whoever.

Romney filed his FEC paperwork. Or, someone filed it for him.

Makes for a funny year. Lots of Democrats annoyed that their race could be won by superdelegates.

Lots of republicans quietly wishing they had superdelegates so they could steer this ship.

[Terez]

If only Hillary had run as a Republican, all our problems would be solved.

[worry]

Who wants to be VP to either Trump or Cruz? Would it be career destroying?

[Terez]

Sarah Palin

[Terez]

If I had to guess at shortlists, in order:

Trump:
Chris Christie
Rudy Giuliani
Paul LePage

Cruz:
Carly Fiorina
Mike Lee
Craig Mazin

[worry]

I've heard it's 50/50 whether Christie wants to be Veep or Attorney General. I'm sure he'll be happy with whatever scraps his master hands him though.

[Terez]

My assumption is that he'd rather be AG, but it's very unusual for AGs to be a presence on the campaign trail.

[worry]

Man. Jake Tapper asks Trump about the violence at his rallies, crowd actually cheers at the quotes of Trump egging it on, and then Trump goes w/ the passion excuse again. Tapper asks Cruz about it, and HE evokes passion and anger of the people as legitimate, blames Obama's apparent emperor complex, and then knocks Trump on the oath thing only. I dunno if either of them is a "Hitler" but they're definitely both cowards and creeps.

Edit: and all that after this: http://thinkprogress...orter-of-lying/

This post has been edited by Zoolanderis Derake: 11 March 2016 - 04:38 AM