[HoosierDaddy]

Funny, I actually saw a Ben Carson bumper-sticker in Kentucky today. A very rare sight.

[Terez]

Just wanted to bump a post about the GOP convention from September 2015 (quoted below). The brokered (contested, in modern parlance) convention is looking more and more likely because Trump is winning but he's not pulling a majority of delegates. The winner-take-all states might not save him. The Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich campaigns are actively planning a contested convention. They see this as their only path to the nomination. It's said Kasich is running a "general election campaign" for that reason, meaning he's not even really trying to appeal to the hardcore GOP base in the primary because winning states isn't necessary for his plan. All he wants is to be the cleanest guy still standing at the convention, and therefore the most attractive as a general election candidate. Technically, they could pick someone who's not even running, but Kasich is the governor of Ohio, and Ohio is one of the biggest swing states.

This is serious. And if Trump doesn't win a majority of delegates, it's going to happen. Trump is being openly supported by the vast and previously underground network of white supremacists. Trump is openly calling for black people to be evicted from his rallies, sometimes violently. This is on video; Maddow played a supercut of them tonight. This crowd video from a Super Tuesday rally in Kentucky has been going around the web since it happened; it became really surreal for me when I watched it on Maddow because her producers overlaid it with the press video of Trump at the podium yelling "Get out! Get her out!" One of the men pushing her, the one with the Make America Great Again hat, is a white supremacist leader whose identity was verified by the press today.

On the one hand, the GOP Establishment recognizes that they probably won't survive as a party if they embrace Trump, and if they do, it will be terrible for the country. On the other hand, they're terrified that such a large segment of their electorate does not care about the conservative principles the party supposedly stands for. All they care about is blaming all of their problems on poor people of color. And Jews. And politicians.

And oh, they are so torn. They know that to nominate someone other than Trump at a contested convention would break the Republican Party. But increasingly, they're recognizing that they might not have a choice. They can't accept this and save any kind of face.

What's really scary is that if Trump does get the nomination, he might win, because we chose this year to crown one of the most unpopular Democratic leaders of the modern era, someone who is uniquely positioned to cede poorly educated anti-corruption progressives—these mystifying Trump-Bernie swing voters—and also uniquely positioned to attract, in return, a smaller group of conservative elite who recognize that her positions on war and finance are in line with their own. DNC leadership and Party groupthink shut out the possibility of all other viable candidates except Bernie, who has never responded very much to that kind of pressure (hence his willingness to discuss primarying Obama in 2012). And he's a self-proclaimed socialist, eccentric, lacking any particular charisma or eloquence or expertise, running on the fumes of his decades-strong stalwart dedication to the issues that progressives actually care about.

If progressives were smart, if we had any organizing structure outside the Democratic Party, we'd be looking for an independent candidate to run, pronto. The earliest deadline to get on the general election ballot is in Texas, in early May. But we're not smart, and thus we're stuck with the present scenario. Maybe an alternative will appear. Michael Bloomberg is not it.

Terez, on 04 September 2015 - 04:15 AM, said:

HoosierDaddy, on 04 September 2015 - 04:05 AM, said:

Let's be real: Trump isn't going to win, and if he does, the Dems could put a stick up against him and win because that asshat couldn't win an election if he bought it, and he's going to try.

I'm not so sure any more that he won't win the nomination. It depends on how long certain candidates stay in the race. Nothing can hurt him with the people who already like him, literally nothing. He says the most out-there retarded shit every day, and everyone who isn't hiding under a rock has heard all of it. And they love it. They're convinced he's their savior, and they'll defend him just as they did Sarah Palin.

I do think, however, that the most likely scenario for the Republican nomination is a brokered convention, however unlikely they normally are. (Linky for the furriners.) This cycle is far from normal. Trump is far from normal. Is there any time in living memory when a candidate so hated by the Establishment was so loved by the base? I can't think of a comparable example aside from the segregationists, and I don't know if that's comparable. The Dixiecrat phenomenon along with the rise of northern liberal Democrats (including northern black voters) shook up the party system so badly that we had a polar reversal. I don't think that's an option this time; we would have to go multi-party, and for that to work we'd need to change first-past-the-post laws because we couldn't accept parliamentary plurality/coalition governments here. Many congressional procedure rules would also have to change. But none of that is happening this cycle; that's a few cycles down the road. This time, we're looking at a brokered GOP convention.

The more I think about it, the more I'm uncertain that we're not actually looking at another polar reversal. I think back in September, I underestimated how attractive Trump could be to those poorly educated white progressives. I think the Hillary people are still underestimating this. There has not been much polling, but this poll suggests a lot of crossover, with a smaller number of conservatives going to Hillary than liberals going to Trump. The phenomenon of the Bernie-Trump swingers was widely reported beginning in Iowa and New Hampshire. Journalists were very confused about this. I mentioned this earlier in the thread, somewhere between September and here. That's white economic populism, completely divorced from racial identity politics, such that it feels comfortable either with Bernie, who actively courts minority voters and obviously cares about their issues, despite his bad returns with black voters, or Trump, who is basically the candidate of the KKK. And then there's this truly frightening piece on young progressives, who are not nearly as socially liberal and tolerant as we think they are.

ETA: Someone on Twitter found the first mention of Hitler in the NYT, from 1922:

This post has been edited by Terez: 03 March 2016 - 07:45 AM

[Tsundoku]

In that video, was Trump trying to have a particularly vocal protester evicted, who just happened to be black? Or is it as the headline implies and he's trying to have a black protester evicted? I can't tell.

That old guy in the funny hat sure is a dick though. Then again, I have no idea what she's saying. Still, you don't treat women like that unless they're trying to stab you or something equally drastic.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 03 March 2016 - 09:12 AM

[EmperorMagus]

Tsundoku, on 03 March 2016 - 09:08 AM, said:

In that video, was Trump trying to have a particularly vocal protester evicted, who just happened to be black? Or is it as the headline implies and he's trying to have a black protester evicted? I can't tell.

That old guy in the funny hat sure is a dick though. Then again, I have no idea what she's saying. Still, you don't treat women like that unless they're trying to stab you or something equally drastic.

This is the involved police department in that incident.

https://www.facebook...150225644999812

Take away from it what you will.

Edit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/the_donald

I find this a gold mine for figuring out what Trump voters are thinking. It is part of reddit, so the hate is probably multiplied by a lot, but the general sentiments are clear.

Edit Edit:
I just found this:
https://i.stack.imgur.com/PPhcg.jpg

In /r the donald.
The thing is color coded to jewism (??) ...

This post has been edited by EmperorMagus: 03 March 2016 - 09:22 AM

[Terez]

EmperorMagus, on 03 March 2016 - 09:14 AM, said:

Tsundoku, on 03 March 2016 - 09:08 AM, said:

In that video, was Trump trying to have a particularly vocal protester evicted, who just happened to be black? Or is it as the headline implies and he's trying to have a black protester evicted? I can't tell.

That old guy in the funny hat sure is a dick though. Then again, I have no idea what she's saying. Still, you don't treat women like that unless they're trying to stab you or something equally drastic.

This is the involved police department in that incident.

https://www.facebook...150225644999812

Take away from it what you will.

That was a completely different incident. The body camera videos have not been released.

[Terez]

Tsundoku, on 03 March 2016 - 09:08 AM, said:

In that video, was Trump trying to have a particularly vocal protester evicted, who just happened to be black? Or is it as the headline implies and he's trying to have a black protester evicted? I can't tell.

He didn't explicitly call for her to be released because she was black, no. But he does appear to have egged on the rough treatment. It's hard to tell because the crowd video has no sound. But as I said, Maddow's producers overlaid a press video of Trump at the podium, and assuming they didn't edit it deceptively, it looks pretty bad.


The guy with the funny hat is apparently retired military.

Edit: I just clicked through the rules for each branch of the military, and it appears that 1) this guy is retired Navy, and 2) it's prohibited for retired military to attend partisan political functions in uniform.

Quote

Retired personnel are prohibited from wearing the uniform in connection with personal enterprises, business activities, or while attending or participating in any demonstration, assembly or activity for the purpose of furthering personal or partisan views on political, social, economic, or religious issues.

However, the picture on that article has a retiree in uniform with a Romney-Ryan sticker on his coat.

This post has been edited by Terez: 03 March 2016 - 10:22 AM

[Illuyankas]

So, let's work out what would be destroyed if you guys end up with a Republican President as well as House and Senate;


Healthcare: an Obamacare repeal finally succeeding would be inevitable and instant - good luck with not getting sick ever, the parts of the US that weren't already screwed!

Infrastructure: Raise taxes to not have three bridges collapse a week? The fuck you talkin' about?

Employee protections: Hope you didn't like having any rights in your job, like weekends or maximum hours per week! Or wages!

Pollution: DRILL, BABY, DRILL, or Beijing 2: American Chokealoo

Women's health: Hahahahahahaha you would be so completely fucked if you had a vagina (seriously though do your best to not exist in this timeline if you have a womb or you'll regret it)

Iran deal: How many Syrias would you like? All of them? How about Iraqs? Oh, all the Iraqs? You got it!

Wall Street: Imagine Blade Runner, only less optimistic

Police accountability: Imagine Judge Dredd, only less optimistic

Foreign policy: Imagine Threads*/The Day After, only less optimistic

Education: Imagine Oliver Twi- ok enough of that, but chimney sweeps will be definitely making a comeback in the hugest way

Any governmental department that isn't Defense: time to literally cut the stomach out of the beast, so have fun with your no regulations

Existing as a minority: Good luck.


Feel free to add your own! And if you were on the edge of voting Trump if Hillary beat Bernie, please use this info to remind yourself of the consequences, and then pay Elon Musk to fire you into the Sun tia





*look for Threads on youtube (for free and copyrightless) if you want to see the UK in the Cold War and also be horribly depressed

[Mentalist]

Come on, Illy, you're being waaay too pessimistic










...








I'm sure the emerging twin behemoths of CIA and NSA would prove enough employment opportunities to any public servant who'd lose their jobs due to wild unrestricted deregulation.

And with America's best and brightest safely protected behind bars of the Silicon Valley Temporary Detention Centre working voluntarily for the good of the nation's Internet security, America will become the safest place on earth.

[Terez]

For those of you foreigners who don't know who Michael Bloomberg is, he's a billionaire former mayor of NYC. He's thinking about getting in the race as an independent. Pictured center.

[Nicodimas]

Boom!!! This is really huge...

https://www.donaldjt...althcare-reform

Trump thinks you should be paying 80% less for health care.

Quote

#5) Require price transparency from all healthcare providers, especially doctors and healthcare organizations like clinics and hospitals. Individuals should be able to shop to find the best prices for procedures, exams or any other medical-related procedure.

[worry]

I wonder if he'd have any affect at all. Even as a Republican he's more aligned with Clinton than Trump. And whether most of the difference is semantic or not, he's perceived as "nanny state" as opposed to "populist", and he's come by that reputation honestly. My gut feeling is he'd hurt the Dem ticket at least as much as the Rep ticket.

[Terez]

Zoolanderis Derake, on 04 March 2016 - 12:25 AM, said:

I wonder if he'd have any affect at all. Even as a Republican he's more aligned with Clinton than Trump. And whether most of the difference is semantic or not, he's perceived as "nanny state" as opposed to "populist", and he's come by that reputation honestly. My gut feeling is he'd hurt the Dem ticket at least as much as the Rep ticket.

Do you recognize the two guys on the right in the golf picture? Obviously there's Giuliani on the left, next to his buddy Trump.

[worry]

I think it's Pete Rose and Billy Crystal.

Edit: It's Joe Torre (another sports guy) and Billy Crystal.

This post has been edited by Zoolanderis Derake: 04 March 2016 - 01:10 AM

[worry]

Illuyankas, on 03 March 2016 - 08:47 PM, said:

Women's health: Hahahahahahaha you would be so completely fucked if you had a vagina (seriously though do your best to not exist in this timeline if you have a womb or you'll regret it)

If you're interested in how this is going in SCOTUS w/o Scalia, this is a concise and engaging view of the women on the court in action. They are seriously some of the most heroic, heartening, genuine public servants in the country and my admiration for them continues to grow (not to shirk Justice Breyer, who's consistently right as well).

http://www.slate.com...e_justices.html

[worry]

I'm not gonna say these guys are bringing their A game, but they're at least bring a game. As in any game at all. Anything above 0% is an improvement.

None of them have Trump's charm, even as he spouts nonsense (and forcing Mexicans to build the wall still gets the loudest cheer for, you know, reasons), but Kasich sounds like a professional (and has a little more room to say so).

[Terez]

I still can't get over the fact that this debate started with Trump claiming he has a big penis.

[amphibian]

Terez, on 04 March 2016 - 02:48 AM, said:

I still can't get over the fact that this debate started with Trump claiming he has a big penis.

LBJ spent years harassing people with his large penis over legislation battles. He had the grace to do this out of the public eye though.

I'm not joking, LBJ would walk up to people and unzip/unload to make them unsettled during the conversation. And he was maybe the greatest Speaker ever and a top fifteen president.

[worry]

True, but LBJ's wasn't plated with 24k gold.

I wonder if this focus on Trump, albeit moderators attempting to hold his feet to the fire for past doublespeak, isn't just going to be screen time directly converted into support. He's just so slick. I guess here's hoping it does something. I don't see the seesaw for Rubio rising any, but Cruz and Kasich maybe?

[worry]

Few things make me as sick as the smug, bootlicking flattery from politicians evoking the "law-abiding citizen" vs "criminal" binary.

[HoosierDaddy]

amphibian, on 04 March 2016 - 03:01 AM, said:

Terez, on 04 March 2016 - 02:48 AM, said:

I still can't get over the fact that this debate started with Trump claiming he has a big penis.

LBJ spent years harassing people with his large penis over legislation battles. He had the grace to do this out of the public eye though.

I'm not joking, LBJ would walk up to people and unzip/unload to make them unsettled during the conversation. And he was maybe the greatest Speaker ever and a top fifteen president.

1. Different era, but yes, still wildly inappropriate. However, he knew his job. JFK set the path, and that guy had more pussy and pain pills than a cat with cancer.

2. He'd been elected already (or quasi-elected.) Weaker reason, yeah.