[Terez]

Dumbledude, on 23 February 2016 - 11:12 PM, said:

The flaw in that question is the naive notion that American news covers Africa at all, let alone events in individual countries. As far as the media are concerned, unless it's about terrorism or disease, Africa and South America might as well not exist at all.

We've covertly supported regime change in Africa and South America several times. The media might not have covered it, but it happened. Recent history: Egypt and Honduras. Our covert action in those cases was probably fairly minimal, but we supported both coups and tried to argue both weren't actually coups at all so we wouldn't be forced to cut off aid funds.

Dumbledude, on 24 February 2016 - 01:23 AM, said:

Couple of favorability comparison charts (spoilered due to size) from https://twitter.com/adrian_gray
Not necessarily predictive of anything, just interesting to see where Bernie, Hillary, and Donald fall relative to each other and to recent history.

Hillary is one of the weakest potential general election candidates we've seen in a while, perhaps even weaker than Trump, definitely weaker than Bernie by the numbers. The truly scary thing is that he'll be running to her left on several issues if she's the nominee. Corruption and campaign finance, trade, regime change, etc.

[Terez]

HoosierDaddy, on 23 February 2016 - 09:42 PM, said:

Obama and Hillary were a dead heat after Super Tuesday. Bernie's going to get slaughtered.

Hillary and Bernie are in a dead heat right now. And Trump is leading in Alabama.

[worry]

Terez, on 24 February 2016 - 02:01 AM, said:

Hillary is one of the weakest potential general election candidates we've seen in a while, perhaps even weaker than Trump, definitely weaker than Bernie by the numbers. The truly scary thing is that he'll be running to her left on several issues if she's the nominee. Corruption and campaign finance, trade, regime change, etc.

The DNC should have learned the lesson of the CA recall of Gray Davis: a somewhat liberal man who tried to play the middle and as a result made everybody mad (especially his deal w/ the Enron crowd, who you can sub w/ Godman Sachs) and ultimately gave us the Governator. I'm not saying Schwarzenegger was as bad as Trump, but Davis wasn't as bad as Clinton either.

The ultimate lesson is a seeming punchline of a candidate, with the right manipulations of outsider status, can and will snowplow their way to victory.

[Terez]

Dumbledude, on 24 February 2016 - 03:16 AM, said:

Terez, on 24 February 2016 - 02:01 AM, said:

Hillary is one of the weakest potential general election candidates we've seen in a while, perhaps even weaker than Trump, definitely weaker than Bernie by the numbers. The truly scary thing is that he'll be running to her left on several issues if she's the nominee. Corruption and campaign finance, trade, regime change, etc.

The DNC should have learned the lesson of the CA recall of Gray Davis: a somewhat liberal man who tried to play the middle and as a result made everybody mad (especially his deal w/ the Enron crowd, who you can sub w/ Godman Sachs) and ultimately gave us the Governator. I'm not saying Schwarzenegger was as bad as Trump, but Davis wasn't as bad as Clinton either.

The ultimate lesson is a seeming punchline of a candidate, with the right manipulations of outsider status, can and will snowplow their way to victory.

But Hillary is SO STRONG! I mean, look at her EXPERIENCE.

These people are frighteningly delusional. But in a way, it's kind of appropriate; both parties look poised to nominate someone who is not only disliked nationwide, but who is also broadly disliked within the party itself. It's really a toss-up as to which would win in the general. I tend to think it would be Trump because populist sentiment is so high right now, and because he's saying a lot of things that appeal to the middle, those left-of-Hillary positions I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't vote for him, but I imagine a lot of left-leaning independents would, especially the white ones.

[worry]

At my lowest level faith in humanity I'd agree, but I also think at least theoretically Clinton has an A-Game to bring, and Trump doesn't. So she better bring it. Hopefully if (when ) it's just them side by side, there will be a surge on the Dem side and a trough w/ the GOP because ultimately he's as vacuous as Sarah Palin and that can't help but become apparent next to a professional. Like there's populism as principle and then populism as platitude, and he's 100% the latter. What she needs is a serious defense against the Wall Street puppet attacks that are gonna come fast and hard. I also think (hope?) that in terms of optics Trump beating up on Clinton is gonna look worse in the general than it did with the GOP crowds. Like him telling her to "shut up" at a debate or something like that. Like, I'm not fond of her and occasionally cringe at what she says, but he's 100% repugnant in every way. I would hope that contrast comes off to most people.

[Terez]

Dumbledude, on 24 February 2016 - 03:53 AM, said:

What she needs is a serious defense against the Wall Street puppet attacks that are gonna come fast and hard.

This is definitely the crux of it. He's totally got her on this subject, and this is something that riles people up all across demographics. You're right that he's a fake populist, but Hillary's ability to defend here is very weak. I imagine she'll try to argue that he's an actual billionaire and guilty of trying to manipulate government with his money, but that argument only makes him the puppetmaster and her the puppet.

Dumbledude, on 24 February 2016 - 03:53 AM, said:

I also think (hope?) that in terms of optics Trump beating up on Clinton is gonna look worse in the general than it did with the GOP crowds. Like him telling her to "shut up" at a debate or something like that.

The GOP crowds will love it, and so will many people in the middle (especially white men) who can't stand Hillary. Trump uses social media responses to fine-tune his tactics and methods. He knows what people like and don't like, and he's shown himself willing to make course corrections along the way. I'm sure he'll do the same in the general. He's a lot better at this than he's given credit for.

[worry]

Terez you are speaking a nightmare. I am not psychologically or emotionally prepared to withstand any of this.

[Terez]

Dumbledude, on 24 February 2016 - 04:13 AM, said:

Terez you are speaking a nightmare. I am not psychologically or emotionally prepared to withstand any of this.

It gets worse. As tightly as he's got her on Wall St., he's got her even better on foreign policy. He doesn't have to get into Benghazi to attack her on Libya. He can successfully attack nearly every foreign policy decision she's ever made, and the best she's got on him is that he apparently spoke in favor of the war in Iraq in 2002 and 2003, despite what he's been saying. Again, it's not a very good defense.

He's got her on trade because she lobbied hard for NAFTA and various other trade deals (see recent email dumps); no one believes she'll actually reject or fight against the TPP. He can pin the entire collapse of our manufacturing sector on her with a bit of rhetorical panache.

He'll also be sure to hit hard on her in ways that Bernie isn't willing to do, when it comes to her arms deals with Saudi Arabia and other foreign interests who have donated to the Clinton Foundation. Anyone who thinks Bernie is running a negative campaign against Hillary, forging her in the fires of the primary, is incredibly delusional. The Democratic party would be unforgiving if Bernie actually attacked her where she's weakest. But Trump won't hesitate, and he has plenty to work with that has nothing to do with rightwing conspiracies.

This post has been edited by Terez: 24 February 2016 - 04:54 AM

[Terez]

Polls just closed for the Nevada GOP caucuses. All the networks called the race for Trump as soon as they closed, but only 5% of the count is in and we're not sure who got 2nd and 3rd yet.

[worry]

http://www.nytimes.c...rance.html?_r=0



In all humility I admit I am still learning the difference between conservatives and neoconservatives.

[Aptorian]

Is the implication of that tweet that those voters believe Slavery is STILL a great idea or is it some kind of historical, socio-economic discussion taken out of context?

[Terez]

[Terez]

This is close to final. I can't believe Carson beat Kasich. That's got to hurt.




Edited to add commentary:

As you can see from the image, turnout was close to 75,000. It was 32,961 in 2012 and 44,324 in 2008. That's abysmal turnout in both of the latter cases, around 10% or less. They've managed to get that up close to 20% this year. However, there's reason to wonder whether those numbers are inflated; there were several reports of mass confusion and disorganization at many caucus locations, with at least some people voting twice, and no sign-in register to verify the number of voters matching the number of votes.

This post has been edited by Terez: 24 February 2016 - 09:59 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

Just spent most of the morning reading through this thread. I'm learning a lot so thank you all for the fascinating stuff you have said.

Something I read today is this: http://www.theblaze....ok-here-you-go/ not that I expect Trump fans to listen...

[Terez]

I don't think there are any Trump voters here. Even Briar King (who appears to be a Republican) does not appear to be a Trump supporter. Maybe I'm wrong.

[QuickTidal]

Is Nevada traditionally a red state?

[Primateus]

I saw on Maddow that Kasich, despite his low numbers, might actually be more of a winner than it seems because he's apparently used exactly "ZERO" dollars campaigning in Nevada.

[Terez]

Primateus, on 24 February 2016 - 02:35 PM, said:

I saw on Maddow that Kasich, despite his low numbers, might actually be more of a winner than it seems because he's apparently used exactly "ZERO" dollars campaigning in Nevada.

That might explain why Ben Carson beat him.

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2016 - 02:33 PM, said:

Is Nevada traditionally a red state?

Swing state that went for Obama both times.

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2016 - 02:33 PM, said:

Is Nevada traditionally a red state?

Apparently it's now a crazy state.

Jeezez Xreist America, you are actually going to do this, aren't you...?

[Mentalist]

Abyss, on 24 February 2016 - 04:02 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2016 - 02:33 PM, said:

Is Nevada traditionally a red state?

Apparently it's now a crazy state.

Jeezez Xreist America, you are actually going to do this, aren't you...?

There's a global trend of identity crisis in Western politics. Trump is just one example of that.