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The USA Politics Thread

#7741 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 06:11 PM

View Postworry, on 04 October 2018 - 10:15 PM, said:

Like I said, I think you're both hitting on truths, but nothing is the whole truth except winning for winning's sake, power for power's sake, cruelty for cruelty's sake. Regarding Obdi's argument, your specific quibble with him seems to be missing something imo: the absolute given that Kavanaugh already agrees with every other judge on the list created for Trump by the Federalist Society on 99.99% of conservative goals. So Obdi isn't arguing in a vacuum that Trump's personal desires for pardon powers are alone what matters. It's that those exist on a mountain of other GOP desires that all the judges already agree on. There's 25 nearly identical Crap Sundaes and the Kavanaugh Sundae happens to have the specific brand of cherries on top Trump wants. He really really wants those cherries, so why not do their best to give em to him. Everyone's already getting sundaes anyway.





I understand that.

But this is coming down to a relatively few voices.

For more than half the republican senators, all that matters is the win and wanting the judge. They don't need a cherry on top, they'd vote Kavanaugh anyway, and they would want to rush regardless.

But when you get down to the last few voices, you get to people who would not care at all about Trump's cherry on top.

Corker isn't even on the fence here, but he is leaving the Senate and has given strong denouncements of Trump's leadership. While that may be a hit and run, it also indicates he has little incentive to care at all about a sweetener for the president. If he would not vote for Kavanaugh without that pending case, he wouldn't with it. He and Flake would in some ways much prefer to see Pence in charge, so if you buy the breadcrumbs on why Trump wants this, they'd have a good reason to defy him.

With Flake it gets more interesting because there is at least the possibility he tries to go after Trump in the primary or as a 3rd party bid. And in that case, he really doesn't want to do Trump any favors, but he does have to worry about what the republicans at large think about him, so not only does he want that crap sundae, he doesn't want to be the guy who denied it to the party.


Collins and Murkowski took some convincing even before these allegations because they are at least nominally pro choice Republicans. Collins didn't tilt to supporting him until she got what she considered (but others doubt) was assurance that Kavanaugh considers Roe settled law. The stakes for them are higher in a few ways, because not every replacement Trump could name would give the same assurance, especially if he played politics and put forward a name to rile up the base for the midterms. So they not only have risk of losing the balance of the court for other conservative issues (if they help the democrats block Trump), but putting up an even more anti abortion judge otherwise.

Between that and the assault allegations, I just don't see Trump's personal agenda playing into their thinking. Trump lost Maine to Clinton. And he arguably needs Collins more than she needs him.


And all that is before we get down to how badly Trump really wants this candidate for that reason. Trump wants Kavanaugh through the same way he wanted first Strange then Moore in Alabama. He wants to win. He wants to be seen winning.
And would he like to see his pardon powers expanded? Sure. But as I said, it is debatable whether this would even be the swing vote, and there would be pressure on Kavanaugh to recuse himself regardless ( he has refused to hypothesize on whether he would, but that is in line with how potential justices always treat hypotheticals in committee hearings). And beyond all of that, while Trump likes more power, in order for him to want this so badly that it informs the entire republican strategy, you'd need to establish that there is someone facing charges that could be federal OR state with enough firsthand knowledge and evidence at their disposal to endanger Trump, who he could motivate to non cooperation with a pardon, and whom Federal AND State prosecutors have the evidence to convict. Put more simply, it implies a Manafort has a smoking gun, (and has not already given it over).

And the reason when it was first brought up I went off about the impeachment stuff is that this is an area Democrats have to be very careful in. The default assumption is that Trump has been going so hard after Mueller and the FBI and Rosenstein, etc is because he is afraid, exposed, and trying hard to discredit a smoking gun in advance.

But it is far more likely that there is a lot of smoke, but no smoking gun. That he does not need pardons or further conspiracy to avoid jail or removal, but there could be enough for a democrat house to move and investigate, and he wants his base seeing that as as partisan as possible. In short, getting investigated or impeached could actually become a key plank in his reelection bid.

All of that is why not only do I not buy that Trump desperately wants this guy right now, but most definitely don't buy that he has the current slate of republican senators in lockstep with the agenda to get this done for this reason. The non swing voters would push it this way regardless. The swing voters have more important considerations.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7742 User is offline   QuickTidal 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 06:31 PM

The R's are playing chicken with the Dems.

If the Dems take back the House in the midterms...Kavanaugh won't just be threatened with impeachment...ANY job on a bench would be in danger, and possible criminal proceedings (no statute of limitations in Maryland).

All the Dems at that point have to do is FULLY re-open an FBI investigation and let everyone be interviewed, reinterview Kavanaugh about these events himself (he'll lie), and the perjury ALONE could be used for impeachment articles.

I think the Rs REALLY think that Democratic "decorum" will make them not put any of these into play if they take the House Back. I'm not sure it's a good game of chicken to be honest.

Although, if there is no Blue Wave in November and the Rs keep the House...it's over. America will only get worse, less free, and more racist and xenophobic. So hopefully a blue wave.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 05 October 2018 - 06:32 PM

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#7743 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 06:49 PM

View PostQuickTidal, on 05 October 2018 - 06:31 PM, said:

The R's are playing chicken with the Dems.

If the Dems take back the House in the midterms...Kavanaugh won't just be threatened with impeachment...ANY job on a bench would be in danger, and possible criminal proceedings (no statute of limitations in Maryland).

All the Dems at that point have to do is FULLY re-open an FBI investigation and let everyone be interviewed, reinterview Kavanaugh about these events himself (he'll lie), and the perjury ALONE could be used for impeachment articles.

I think the Rs REALLY think that Democratic "decorum" will make them not put any of these into play if they take the House Back. I'm not sure it's a good game of chicken to be honest.

Although, if there is no Blue Wave in November and the Rs keep the House...it's over. America will only get worse, less free, and more racist and xenophobic. So hopefully a blue wave.


That's a wildly optimistic POV in almost every way.

Kavanaugh once on the court needs not agree to any interview. The people contradicting him in the press to date have not been enough to convict on perjury. There's wide room for debate on what they could or could not impeach him for, they'd need house and senate to convict and remove him from office, and most importantly going after him (even doing the wider FBI investigation of a sitting justice) would be seen as so wildly partisan that it could get Trump reelected and lose democrats the house again.

The Clinton perjury impeachment failed (when he did in fact perjure himself) and was spun as being on trial for infidelity. Think about how a trial 'for binge drinking in high school and college' would play.

If the democrats win they have to be careful enough how hard they go after Trump. Going after Kavanaugh? Fuggetaboutit

And the statute of limitations in Maryland? How is that relevant for a 30 year old he said she said? There's no guarantee Ford would even agree to testify, she let this lie until he got put up for the court. Any other evidence you are likely to find could have been sufficient for the senate, who can use whichever standard they like, but for a trial?
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7744 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 07:24 PM

Sounds more like she thinks she is a judge than a politician voting on one.


Anyhoo seems like a long buildup to say she's voting Yes.

edit:And at the moment it seems like she's reading the speech she wrote before the allegations even came out.


edit: now she's on to the allegations, talking up presumption of innocence

Says she is using a standard of more likely than not, and does not believe accusation meets the standard.

Yep, she's still speaking 35 mins later

This post has been edited by Nevyn: 05 October 2018 - 07:40 PM

Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7745 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:25 PM

Nev, you are the first and only person to mention desperation. Obdi, as far as I can tell, is talking about why BK was chosen among otherwise very similar people, and why the Trump admin and others continue to stump for him despite the fact that he sexually assaults women and lies about it. He is definitely, among those choices, the one most on record about pardoning powers of the president that favor Trump, and it's almost definitely the deciding factor for him over the rest. It's what made him the first draft pick. The bet is that they can get away with appointing him the position, because while they're indifferent to DJT as anything other than a tool, they get what they want anyway with BK, and there's no reason to upset the tool and his legion. I don't think you're even necessarily wrong that Trump himself will never face impeachment, even with Dem majorities, but I also don't think it's absent from the calculus of this decision.


GOP Senators largely do vote in lockstep, not because they have any particular affection for Donald Trump (who is less reliable cover for their agenda than GWB, GB, and RR), but because winning is everything. It's not a caricature to describe what is plainly true in plain terms. Ultimately, though, BK himself is disposable, it's not really about him except in terms of giving him their best shot because they might as well try, but nobody's life is going to be shattered (including Donald Trump's) if they have to move on to the next chump. Explaining that occasionally there are exceptions to the rule, and a few times a year a Murkowski or whatever will face enough home state pressure to flip the script isn't news to anyone who lives here. We all know their first allegiance is to themselves and not the president or McConnell, it just rarely comes to that.


And I've said this plenty of times before, but our politics aren't polarized -- that requires two poles. You don't seem to want to accept that, and you're incorrect (imo) to do so, and it ends up coloring some of what you're saying. I don't even think you're wrong about every finer detail, but people keep telling you that you have the frame wrong about American politics generally -- that there is no left and right battling things out, opposite sides of a fight, playing the same cynical game, growing more and more partisan, becoming more and more extreme on both sides, etc. It just ain't the case. The mass media that you peg (accurately) as money-driven and warped by that fact, is owned by GOP/donors. There's no left/right split there either, there's a bent towards profit and any mythology-building that protects it. So, for instance, when you talk about Flake being anti-Trump, you're buying this mythology. He votes with Trump nearly 84% of the time, including on Kavanaugh in all likelihood. All of these rhetorical differences mean nothing in terms of policy or outcomes, they just mean that he wants to primary Trump in 2020. Absolutely none of these GOP people care about good governance, serving their constituencies well, etc. and they have no moral code stronger than Trump's own: self-service, domination, maintaining the power structures that benefit them. If you want to divide that into factions of people who enjoy the cruelty and people who are indifferent to the cruelty, for accuracy's sake I guess, that's fine. I won't say "really little is served by thinking it" thoguh, because in all truth, there are people who are served by those who bother to make that distinction. They lock kids in cages.
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#7746 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:31 PM

Well, I wrote that while on a conference call, so if it's muddled so be it! And now it's officially Old News.
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#7747 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:34 PM

View Postworry, on 05 October 2018 - 08:25 PM, said:

Nev, you are the first and only person to mention desperation. Obdi, as far as I can tell, is talking about why BK was chosen among otherwise very similar people, and why the Trump admin and others continue to stump for him despite the fact that he sexually assaults women and lies about it.


Obdi was saying that the rush to approve Kavanaugh and stick by him was because there was not time to nominate and confirm another candidate before that case was heard.

And that is the part where I am saying that would not be a priority for any of the potential swing senators.


I'll leave the rest of your argument be for now, as the process gets quite exhausting. Short version would be, unsurprisingly, that we disagree.

This post has been edited by Nevyn: 05 October 2018 - 08:35 PM

Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7748 User is offline   amphibian 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:39 PM

View PostBriar King, on 05 October 2018 - 07:58 PM, said:

CNN your way behind the times. Fox had you beat with Manchin by almost an hour.

Why do you think this is so? My strong hypothesis is that Manchin's staff leaked to Fox first like most most conservative politician staff do. Do you remember the secret FBI report that McConnell put into a room where only Senators could view it for an hour? That got essentially leaked to Fox people by McConnell's staff to allow Fox to grease the public opinion wheels their way.

This happens all the time and CNN getting scooped on a very rigged thing is a non story.
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#7749 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:41 PM

To that I would say, I suppose, that just because it's not a priority doesn't mean it's not a factor, and since Kavanaugh is (was) the one in front of them, it hardly matters where on the hierarchy it is...you don't have to pinpoint it. Because again, winning is the point.


Disagreeing on the rest is fine, except it means you will be wrong about a lot of stuff and I was hoping to prevent that. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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#7750 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:42 PM

Or CNN had the story when Fox did, but wanted to keep a suspenseful spotlight on Collins' speech because people were paying attention, and Manchin's vote (even if informed by Collins' position) made the moment moot.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7751 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:49 PM

Also wanted to say that the Collins speech really was quite something, even if you disagree with it.

Especially when you consider the barrage she has been under (including hecklers who had to be removed before she spoke), it was quite composed and measured.


Now of course that doesn't mean I agree with her vote. And in a speech that covered just about anything (including citing many cases he has tried to suggest he will be a fair judge), she barely mentioned the Ramirez allegations, and the othings she did not address or consider (and I think should have) were

1) Kavanaugh's demeanor in the hearings, which as I said should call into question his ability to serve

2) Kavanaugh's potential lack of honesty in his testimony. With this one, I am not 100% sure on the rules and how much they can allude to outside reports not in the testimony of FBI investigation, because none of the Democrats objecting went after this point either. They all mention the lack of an investigation and corroborating witnesses, but none are mentioning how dubious the testimony of his drinking history is.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7752 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:53 PM

As for the politics of this, while they will hate Kavanaugh being on it, they largely favour the democrats.

Manchin didn't have to cast a no, much less the deciding one, so while he's not always totally useful, they could retain his seat.

They have successfully frothed their base as much as possible, and will have them seeking to answer this with their votes.

And while polls were showing Republican voting intention picking up while all this happened, that could fade back down now that they've "won". There is no seat in the balance anymore.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7753 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:14 PM

Pretty much this, I guess:


If anyone's interested in donating to Collins' opponent in 2020, whoever that may be, ActBlue is already on it: https://secure.actbl...ndraisers/56191
Similar fund at CrowdPac crashed after already hitting $2 mil: https://twitter.com/...299544180609024
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#7754 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:24 PM

I still find it funny, trying to target Collins, who could almost get talked into a no for her vote, rather than the 47 odd senators who were locked in yes' regardless, including some up for election in a month.

Spend your money on beating Cruz. He's far worse, in a closer than expected race, and you can actually know the candidate you are giving money to.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7755 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:28 PM

When did you start finding it funny?
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#7756 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:35 PM

View Postworry, on 05 October 2018 - 09:28 PM, said:

When did you start finding it funny?




When I heard about it a couple days ago (they set up funds in advance with pledges for money that would only go to her 2020 opponent if she voted yes).

I alluded to it upthread when I was saying I thought the threats would be ineffective and perhaps even damaging.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7757 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:40 PM

Ah, that's not so long. Well, let's hope it continues to give you joy as the years roll by.
They came with white hands and left with red hands.
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#7758 User is offline   Nevyn 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 10:05 PM

View Postworry, on 05 October 2018 - 09:40 PM, said:

Ah, that's not so long. Well, let's hope it continues to give you joy as the years roll by.


Not really that kind of funny.

But don't worry, I'm a white guy. The entire world is configured to bring me joy.
Tatts early in SH game: Hmm, so if I'm liberal I should have voted Nein to make sure I'm president? I'm not that selfish

Tatts later in SAME game: I'm going to be a corrupt official. I have turned from my liberal ways, and now will vote against the pesky liberals. Viva la Fascism.
When Venge's turn comes, he will get a yes from Mess, Dolmen, Nevyn and Venge but a no from the 3 fascists and me. **** with my Government, and i'll **** with yours
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#7759 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 10:17 PM

That's true. Well, I hope the best for all with good hearts who are trying to make this country a better one, as best they can, especially because there are people out there trying to extinguish them. Hopefully everyone finds that sense of purpose and activism, big or small, national or local, that helps themselves and others. It's easy to feel lost or hopeless right now, maybe even defeated, and I can't blame them. But take care of yourselves and seek out ways to take care of others. If donating to Beto for 2018 seems like a better idea than donating 'against' Collins in 2020, do that too.
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#7760 User is online   worry 

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 10:50 PM




They came with white hands and left with red hands.
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