Chance, on 03 November 2026 - 08:53 PM, said:
Mentalist, on 03 November 2026 - 08:08 PM, said:
Chance, on 03 November 2026 - 08:00 PM, said:
I'm no American but too me it seems that the further left the democrats go the more they alienate the middle and the less likely they are to win the next election. It kinda seems the basic working of politics in most of the west really.
there's a growing polarization between cities that are becoming increasingly progressive, and rural/less economically developed areas, that are becoming more conservative/culturally backward, especially as the more progressive youths are moving out into said cities.
In places where electoral system is set up to favour the less populated areas, this leads to a significant rightward slide overall. The only real way to address this is to either reform the system, or pull up the backwaters.
They probably need to pull up the backwaters anything else will simply be seen as vote rigging in the other way and lead to even more hardcore alienation. We are seeing it to a lesser degree here where the rural parts which where solidly worker-left for most of time are now turning conservative or alt-right as they have been forgotten by politicans or at least feel that way.
You might be surprised how few people actually change their vote. The vast majority of people vote the same way they did last time around.
The idea of competing for a "middle" voter is not necessarily accurate. Modern political strategy often revolves more around trying to get the people who support you to come out and vote (/that the people who support the other candidate don't bother).
You also have things like demographic shifts, first time voters, and so on, so it's not
only about mobilisation.
But the idea that the left needs to "win the centre" does not ring very true. It basically assumes left-leaning voters will still come out and vote rather than staying home.
Perceived centrist candidates like Clinton and Biden-Harris haven't exactly had a strong track record electorally. The right has clearly had more recent success trying to rally up the right-wing base instead of playing for the centre a la Romney or McCain. Clearly this election has been a disaster but it also goes to show just how badly you can govern before you get repudiated, and that's always likely to have some consequence (see also Liz Truss).
If you look at this result it's majorly driven by turnout.
This is not only the US either. If you look at the UK, where there is more party diversity, what you'll find is voters are largely switching within blocs -- say Labour to Greens or Reform to Conservative -- rather than between them.
I'd argue that the West is going to stay in an
anti-establishment political zeitgeist for the foreseeable future, for genuine structural reasons. The middle in most places is adrift when it comes to really motivating a base and mostly seems to win gritted teeth "us or the far right" contests.
This isn't to say abandon rural voters or anything. But you probably won't win them by chasing the middle either.