HoosierDaddy, on 06 March 2026 - 05:20 PM, said:
Chiming in on this, because I think it's an interesting debate, the study you link highlights later on that "Trump’s hardline policies on illegal immigration found their mark".
After both of the seminal anglosphere right-wing upsets - Brexit and Trump - there has been this post-mortem debate on the losing side about how much to blame
1.
economics: financial anxiety especially amongst "left behind" regions of the country
2.
values: xenophobia, sexism, and similar "authoritarian" identity politics
It's an important question that has obvious implications for the strategy of left parties that want to regain ground.
I am not confident enough to say there is a consensus amongst political scientists, but generally what I have read suggests it is leaning towards #2.
Education predicts the Brexit vote better than income, and
support for the death penalty predicts it better than either.
Similarly, measures of sexism and racism
predict the likelihood that someone votes Trump in 2016 significantly more powerfully than economic dissatisfaction.
I'm finding it harder to find so much about the 2024 election at the moment. I definitely would expect the economy to play a bigger role than in 2016 given inflation, and from what I can find that does seem to be true. Nonetheless, studies
still seem to suggest that values predict the vote highly, with a
gulf in attitudes towards race, immigration, abortion, and whether women continue to face obstacles in society compared to men or not. Immigration was a
massively more important topic for Trump voters in 2024 than Harris voters.
I think it's
very tempting amongst liberals to focus on #1 as far as possible. It's certainly more comfortable than accepting that a large number of your neighbours are completely fine, even actively support, sinking small boats at sea or deporting people based on their skin tone (despite the evidence getting more and more blatant).
And I don't think it's just that it's more pleasant personally. It's also that there is a more obvious political playbook to respond to #1, and that it's a centrist liberal economic playbook that the political establishment can largely get behind.
Responding to #2 feels like a quagmire by comparison.