[Tulas Shorn]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 04:03 AM, said:

Omtose, on 31 January 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:

Seems Fener is the cool kid since I too thought he was possibly in my faction, though it was more gut/guess than anything concrete.

Going back a couple of days the read I got on Olar Ethil was that they had some kind of connection to Tulas, they supported the Silanah case and pretty much flat out dismissed Tulas back then as being a possible Uesugi when the culture hunt was underway.

After Seltatha's comments earlier I went back and has a look at her as well, she was pretty dead set against Tulas, she was also the first player to suggest a culture hunt after Eloth (Uesugi) was lynched on day 1.

Yep, I knew there was a reason why I put Olar in with Tulas in the same faction.

Ahh but then there was the vote at the last lynch. When they put it on I was still very close to Liosan. That is why I took them off of my team.

[Omtose]

Also Korvalain in his short list suggested Sil, Olar E, TS and Shadow as Uesugi suspects.

We know sil wasn't but the other three players are all still active in the game so there is the possibility there and it would suggest he isn't of that faction, I mean he could have been guessing or deflecting but it is interesting that three of the players are still alive and there is the possibility they could in fact be.

I have nothing on Korlat or Tiam at all, not even a guess.

[Fener]

You know, all this confusion over who's in what which everybody seems to be displaying makes me think that the Fuji-Ashi win isn't as imminent as Tulas threatens. After all, say that a non-Fuji-Ashi is lynched today. Yes, the next day the Fuji-Ashi could reveal....but what's to stop everyone else from counter-revealing as Fuji-Ashi too? Ok, some might be able to vouch for others, but then yet others could counter-vouch.....

Even with the alliance still in place, it still strikes me as quite the free for all anyhow.

[Fener]

If what I just said above is correct, then I would still prefer to lynch those that I'm sure do not belong to my faction - which makes Tulas the leading candidate.

[Omtose]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 04:13 AM, said:

You know, all this confusion over who's in what which everybody seems to be displaying makes me think that the Fuji-Ashi win isn't as imminent as Tulas threatens. After all, say that a non-Fuji-Ashi is lynched today. Yes, the next day the Fuji-Ashi could reveal....but what's to stop everyone else from counter-revealing as Fuji-Ashi too? Ok, some might be able to vouch for others, but then yet others could counter-vouch.....

Even with the alliance still in place, it still strikes me as quite the free for all anyhow.

Yes I get that feeling, A lot of us have no actual evidence or idea who are on our team and there seems to be a general feeling of groping in the dark right about now, I think it is why everyone is being very cautious today, because no one is very sure. With a couple of low posters to add to that confusion as well, it makes people all the harder to figure out in any way. I know my opinion on certain players has been oscillating back and forth.

[Omtose]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 04:19 AM, said:

If what I just said above is correct, then I would still prefer to lynch those that I'm sure do not belong to my faction - which makes Tulas the leading candidate.

I was almost sure he wasn't in my faction a day back and now i'm really not. Earlier today I then had him down as one of the alliance and then this evening it swung back to genuinely thinking he wasn't. I really just can't seem to settle on it.

[Fener]

Shadow, on 28 January 2012 - 04:10 PM, said:

I think if we do lynch Mr. Shorn. and he turns up Fujiwari, we could find more of his faction pretty easily.

Vote Tulas Shorn

This comment suggests that Shadow is not Fujiwari. If he is genuinelly as intrigued by Tulas' idea as he makes out, then that might put him in Uesugi, as they have by far the most to gain. Which then would put his list of Uesugi suspects in a whole new light - that he was trying to pre-empt the Culture hunt by putting out a fake list of suspects.

[Fener]

Basically, one of Shadow or Tulas is having us on, I reckon. One of them is alliance.

[Omtose]

Shadow certainly seem to not have trusted TS for the majority of the game, though TS for the most part seems to have brushed it off.

[Fener]

Omtose, on 31 January 2012 - 04:28 AM, said:

Shadow certainly seem to not have trusted TS for the majority of the game, though TS for the most part seems to have brushed it off.

Yeah, I just don't know. But the more I think about it, the less I trust the motivations behind the conversation Tulas, Shadow and I just had. I don't think Tulas is as hell-bent on a simple free for all as he says - I reckon he still feels his faction is in with a shot at winning, and frankly he'll say anything not to be lynched today; Shadow is...shadowy - they've produced quite a few leading posts, such as the Uesugi list and the info dump at the beginning of today. Me? Well, I'm Fener. Nobody likes me on instinct.

[Omtose]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 04:38 AM, said:

Omtose, on 31 January 2012 - 04:28 AM, said:

Shadow certainly seem to not have trusted TS for the majority of the game, though TS for the most part seems to have brushed it off.

Yeah, I just don't know. But the more I think about it, the less I trust the motivations behind the conversation Tulas, Shadow and I just had. I don't think Tulas is as hell-bent on a simple free for all as he says - I reckon he still feels his faction is in with a shot at winning, and frankly he'll say anything not to be lynched today; Shadow is...shadowy - they've produced quite a few leading posts, such as the Uesugi list and the info dump at the beginning of today. Me? Well, I'm Fener. Nobody likes me on instinct.

I think any faction that still has a certain amount of players, especially of they are roled are going to want to try and win it for themselves.

[Korlat]

I'd say there's a good chance Shadow isn't a part of the alliance, just because he started the discussion on the alliances, and I can't see anyone who is a part of it wanting to bring up the discussion like that.

I'm confused about this free for all thing that people have been talking about...

[Fener]

Korlat, on 31 January 2012 - 05:06 AM, said:

I'd say there's a good chance Shadow isn't a part of the alliance, just because he started the discussion on the alliances, and I can't see anyone who is a part of it wanting to bring up the discussion like that.

I'm confused about this free for all thing that people have been talking about...

So you think Shadow is Uesugi then? I was thinking about his bringing up the alliances actually, and I found it interesting that whilst he talked about achieving voting parity, he was never like, "we musn't let the Ashi-Fuji do this!", so you could also interpret it as trying to send the message of the advantage of the alliance to the other Ashi-Fuji faction members. But then he also may have simply wanted to remain very cagey about exactly which faction he was in.

[Fener]

I'm off to try and get some sleep.

[Omtose]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 05:13 AM, said:

Korlat, on 31 January 2012 - 05:06 AM, said:

I'd say there's a good chance Shadow isn't a part of the alliance, just because he started the discussion on the alliances, and I can't see anyone who is a part of it wanting to bring up the discussion like that.

I'm confused about this free for all thing that people have been talking about...

So you think Shadow is Uesugi then? I was thinking about his bringing up the alliances actually, and I found it interesting that whilst he talked about achieving voting parity, he was never like, "we musn't let the Ashi-Fuji do this!", so you could also interpret it as trying to send the message of the advantage of the alliance to the other Ashi-Fuji faction members. But then he also may have simply wanted to remain very cagey about exactly which faction he was in.

Looking back on his list of possible Uesugi, the two we know of so far have turned out not to be, possibly then he was and tried to turn the culture hunt on its head and if he did he's been rather successful at it, though it would suggest he knows at least a member of his faction or knew that at least one of the people on his list wasn't.

[Korlat]

I wouldn't go so far as to guess his faction, I'm way too confused for that. But you have a point there, he didn't exactly try and start a crusade against them, just sort of pointed it out.

[Omtose]

Yeah it was more thinking out loud, i've not really pinned anyone's faction down, could make sense from that angle though.

[Sheltatha Lore]

Catching up

I see I have a few pages to go through. Something happened?

[Sheltatha Lore]

OK, one thing about those alliances.

As I said in an earlier post, I don't understand the alliances, and I'm quite reluctant to build too much strategy around them. I would be happy to vote someone in the allied teams, but not for being in the allied teams, for feeling they're not in my team.

Heck, if I were in an alliance I wouldn't bat an eye voting for someone in the other team of the alliance.

Why?
Alliances come and go, from what we have seen. No guarantee that things will stay the same later in the game. Also, I don't have any indication besides what people say on thread that alliances have to do with victory conditions. Fener's idea that it relates to the success of night actions makes sense also, and doesn't tell my why I should choose my target based on alliances.

Plus there's that whole can of "open" alliances, suggesting there are hidden ones too.

Problem is, I don't have this much good information about people's factions, so I go with what I have in my notes.

All this to say, if Karrat revealed as the last of the Mohicans, and I believe that if he wasn't the real last, he would have been counter-revealed, then he's a safe lynch for me. For all of us. He's not in our team, and voting him doesn't reveal additional information about our team.

Tulas I would vote also, because I do believe he's Uisega based on the day 1 actions. And hunting the leader like I did, I think I don't reveal more information about me if I vote someone for being a potential Uisega.


Shadow, I believe he has something in his sleeve with this offensive. Is he not in the Alliance? He can't be Muira, if he's Uesagi he's been doing it wrong so far, so his attacks basically reveals him as Takeda at a stage of the game where it's not the smartest idea. I'm wondering if the behind-the-scenes state of the alliances is not different from that it is based on the "open alliance" information, and he's trying to do a push for the win.

edit: slight clarification

This post has been edited by Sheltatha Lore: 31 January 2012 - 06:24 AM

[Sheltatha Lore]

For the increasing number of death at night, I would like to point out that it seems to be related to the wounding mechanism in this game.

Three wounds and you're out, it takes some nights to build them up, but now it's picking up in speed.