[Gamelon]

Atrahal, on 29 November 2011 - 10:56 AM, said:

No one has commented yet on PS's mid-day storyline. I was wondering if we have to work with a communicating network of scum (since it talks about Hojo sending out messages). Does anyone think that Hojo is a hidden identity running the show with anonymous messages? I was just remembering that final game of Ro3K where we had the anonymous messaging directing fellow faction members (and yes, I know this is a town vs scum game, so don't give me shit about bringing up factions).

And it seems like town may have a new role with the introduction of Masamoto.

I took the second part to mean someone might be promoted into a role, like the OP says (call for more retainers, etc)

[Galain]

Rashan, on 30 November 2011 - 08:27 AM, said:

Galain, on 29 November 2011 - 10:31 PM, said:

Rashan, on 29 November 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

I find a killer making a day 1 case odd to begin with. Presenting a case day 1 will lead to attention and to the chance of your case backfiring. I do think there will be a killer on the train, but not for the opening stages apart perhaps from the early joke vote. In that case, the symp might have made a case on the target of said vote in order to signal his masters that he's on their side.

You've laid down some theory in the abstract, but I don't see you applying this practically, you've just left it hanging. Why haven't you translated this thought experiment into some actual names?

It is not hard to see who I might mean: Kesso as the joke voter, Atrahal (or perhaps you, or both, now wouldn't that be a screamer, two symps outing themselves like that?) as the symp. Of you and Atrahal, you have certainly tried to establish thread control, which is a traditional symp style for a symp with the time on hand to post a lot and the confidence to try and run the thread.

But, and this is why I added no names: this is an excersize in theory and I'm not going to try and string someone up on a what if scenario.


EDITED: sentence clarified.

See to me this smacks of trying to subtly lead people down the path of thought you want without actually saying anything out right. But your explanation works too, I guess.

[Emurlahn]

Omtose, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 PM, said:

Thyrllan, on 30 November 2011 - 08:08 PM, said:

Probably not a lot I can do anymore at this point, but some of you are giving scum waaay too little credit. Blatantly voting away from me and then symping me when there's already tons of suspicion on me? If I'm already under suspicion, a symp would be smart enough not to blatantly symp me more, because people are easily going to catch it. Catching symping at work is fine for identifying scum that are not under suspicion, but you should never use it to *confirm* existing on-thread suspicions.

When I CF inno, take a good hard look at the folks who have been claiming that obvious symping on my already-suspected self was enough for them to vote me half way through the day, namely Emur and Meanas.

So instead of Crying, put out another good suspect. Personally, I don't think you are a good lynch. It's basically an extension of a day 1 lynch and feels to preordained. You only have 4 votes and a lot of people are around. I am all ears on another lynch target. As it stands, I have my vote where I feel the scummiest person is.

^ This. I am open as well to another lynch. Then again, I said that yesterday and Kesso was inno.

[Galain]

Anomandaris, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 AM, said:

Well galain did start the game with a joke vote and out of the timing (votes) and the two players he is possibly following onto the train it might go either way. thyr and atrahal together and starting a train doesnt seem very much like killer behaviour if they had off thread comms its a fairly risky tactic to take. To have galain as symp and following them onto the train just borders on ridiculious.

I would guess if galain is symp it would be to only one of those two. I would be it 60/40 to atrahal rather than thyr though at the moment though, not sure why. There just seems to be more cohesion between the way atrahal and galain are playing.

Surely if you see cohesion in two players' games you'd expect them to have off-thread comms, rather than being a killer/symp combo? Short of telepathy, you're not going to see a master and symp able to work in harmony this early in the game. In fact, I notice that Rashan has made a similar point in the next post.

[Thyrllan]

Galain, on 30 November 2011 - 08:58 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 AM, said:

Well galain did start the game with a joke vote and out of the timing (votes) and the two players he is possibly following onto the train it might go either way. thyr and atrahal together and starting a train doesnt seem very much like killer behaviour if they had off thread comms its a fairly risky tactic to take. To have galain as symp and following them onto the train just borders on ridiculious.

I would guess if galain is symp it would be to only one of those two. I would be it 60/40 to atrahal rather than thyr though at the moment though, not sure why. There just seems to be more cohesion between the way atrahal and galain are playing.

Surely if you see cohesion in two players' games you'd expect them to have off-thread comms, rather than being a killer/symp combo? Short of telepathy, you're not going to see a master and symp able to work in harmony this early in the game. In fact, I notice that Rashan has made a similar point in the next post.

atst, it's actually pretty unlikely this game has any true "symps". While most of us know nothing about the sengoku period, the characters are neverthless drawn from historical facts and figures, and it wouldn't do to have someone CF with their name and as town only for the wikipedia page about how they secretly were in league with the Hojo be posted. And given that this is the first game, I don't think Shin will be straying too far from actual history in setup, but rather expecting us to diverge from history only through our own actions.

[Osseric]

Thyrllan, on 30 November 2011 - 09:05 PM, said:

Galain, on 30 November 2011 - 08:58 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 AM, said:

Well galain did start the game with a joke vote and out of the timing (votes) and the two players he is possibly following onto the train it might go either way. thyr and atrahal together and starting a train doesnt seem very much like killer behaviour if they had off thread comms its a fairly risky tactic to take. To have galain as symp and following them onto the train just borders on ridiculious.

I would guess if galain is symp it would be to only one of those two. I would be it 60/40 to atrahal rather than thyr though at the moment though, not sure why. There just seems to be more cohesion between the way atrahal and galain are playing.

Surely if you see cohesion in two players' games you'd expect them to have off-thread comms, rather than being a killer/symp combo? Short of telepathy, you're not going to see a master and symp able to work in harmony this early in the game. In fact, I notice that Rashan has made a similar point in the next post.

atst, it's actually pretty unlikely this game has any true "symps". While most of us know nothing about the sengoku period, the characters are neverthless drawn from historical facts and figures, and it wouldn't do to have someone CF with their name and as town only for the wikipedia page about how they secretly were in league with the Hojo be posted. And given that this is the first game, I don't think Shin will be straying too far from actual history in setup, but rather expecting us to diverge from history only through our own actions.

Interesting point and worth considering. Of course, it's equally likely that Shin's got past that issue by inventing names. Not everyone has to be on wikipedia

The others are right, by the way Thyrllan. The onus is really on you to provide a better suspect. I reckon about 20% of the time people who look up for the lynch manage to defend themselves and get out of it. The other 80% when someones escapes the noose is when they themselves have found another target/made a good case against someone else. That's just the way of the world

[Galain]

Omtose, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 PM, said:

Thyrllan, on 30 November 2011 - 08:08 PM, said:

Probably not a lot I can do anymore at this point, but some of you are giving scum waaay too little credit. Blatantly voting away from me and then symping me when there's already tons of suspicion on me? If I'm already under suspicion, a symp would be smart enough not to blatantly symp me more, because people are easily going to catch it. Catching symping at work is fine for identifying scum that are not under suspicion, but you should never use it to *confirm* existing on-thread suspicions.

When I CF inno, take a good hard look at the folks who have been claiming that obvious symping on my already-suspected self was enough for them to vote me half way through the day, namely Emur and Meanas.

So instead of Crying, put out another good suspect. Personally, I don't think you are a good lynch. It's basically an extension of a day 1 lynch and feels to preordained. You only have 4 votes and a lot of people are around. I am all ears on another lynch target. As it stands, I have my vote where I feel the scummiest person is.

Tend to agree with Omtose here. The main thing Thyrllan has going against them is inertia as much as a case of any kind. I don't really buy that there's been a whole lot of symping away from Thyrllan here - might be my own hubris talking but I thought a lot more credible evidence was presented against Kessobahn than against Thyrllan, who people were voting more out of annoyance than anything else. Am I being naive in thinking that people might see two cases and decide one is better than the other and vote for it?


The main thing against Thyrllan as far as I'm concerned is the joke and lack of explanation. I still want to know why Thyrllan didn't explain earlier instead of just being cryptic. But IMO this isn't enough on its own to warrant a vote/lynch.

[Osseric]

Having said that, just so people know where my current suspicions lie:

Vote Anomandaris

Next best choice for me is Ruse, then Mockra and Thyrllan.

[Galain]

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 09:11 PM, said:

Having said that, just so people know where my current suspicions lie:

Vote Anomandaris

Next best choice for me is Ruse, then Mockra and Thyrllan.

I've taken a look at your Anomandaris case, Osseric. I'm not quite sure I see your point though. The post you quoted feels like it does contain a valid reason to me. One thing that does feel weird about Ano is that he makes no effort to generate any in the time he was here for. He does a little speculation about scum blocs, but doesn't give any indication as to who he thinks is vote-worthy.

I'm a little miffed at Ruse, who took my call for more content and gave...absolutely nothing. Rereading what I said in my summary, I might have been giving them too much leeway because of their lowposter status. I can kind of see Omtose's point that of the set of votes, Ruse's is the most suspicious.

[Thyrllan]

Galain, on 30 November 2011 - 09:29 PM, said:

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 09:11 PM, said:

Having said that, just so people know where my current suspicions lie:

Vote Anomandaris

Next best choice for me is Ruse, then Mockra and Thyrllan.

I've taken a look at your Anomandaris case, Osseric. I'm not quite sure I see your point though. The post you quoted feels like it does contain a valid reason to me. One thing that does feel weird about Ano is that he makes no effort to generate any in the time he was here for. He does a little speculation about scum blocs, but doesn't give any indication as to who he thinks is vote-worthy.

I'm a little miffed at Ruse, who took my call for more content and gave...absolutely nothing. Rereading what I said in my summary, I might have been giving them too much leeway because of their lowposter status. I can kind of see Omtose's point that of the set of votes, Ruse's is the most suspicious.

that's an amusing xpost edit: wait no its not I dont get it I think I thought osseric was Ano. I am not the sense


As for whom do I suspect? Well I already said my bit about Tennes. Re-read his posts, and there's not much to say about him. His larger posts he really rambles about finding HP to be so awful but never goes so far as to say anyone might be scum or, heaven forbid, vote for someone who doesn't have a 5-person train already.

I'm going to drop my Tennes vote now, might as well get the options out there on the board.

vote Tennes

at the same time, Rashan is a big up-and-comer on my scumdar. I wouldn't say he's likely to be the Hojo chieftain, but he's been vigorous enough pushing cases in a single-mindedness that doesn't match up with his getting as much content about other cases in as he can. What I mean is that he looks like he's talking about everything equally as a good little townie should, but at the same time he only really puts any push towards one particular case at a time because he wants to keep the real focus there.

This post has been edited by Thyrllan: 30 November 2011 - 09:42 PM

[Galain]

Hmm, I'm usually a bit reluctant to post signalling cases, as usually they pan out to be, to make use of what seems to be becoming a common phrase, farts in the wind. But perhaps it has some relevance in the situation.

Here's Ruse's first post of substance:

Ruse, on 29 November 2011 - 07:38 AM, said:

Hmm, well there seems to be a fair bit going on here. Much too-ing and fro-ing to be found. At least the avatars are less confusing!

There seems to be a lot of anxiety about low posting because of the last game. I'm not really sure if Day 1 is really a good indicator of how the rest will go. But putting pressure on low posters early is probably the only way to avoid any repeats, so as such, I'm all for it.

In spite of Spite's trigger happiness (hehe), I reckon they're inno, seems a bit OTT for scum.

I don't get Thyr's weird statement. At first I thought I'd missed the explanation for it, but reading back Thyr's just sort of ignoring it. Although I'm not completely convinced it's really a good reason for a lynch. But pehaps it's too much to hope that someone would get 'syllables' and 'characters' confused as well as not be able to count particularly well.

Kesso, that's probably just first day voting for you. And also conviniently the only other train that's building up aside from your own. Which I'm going to have to go and take another look at, I think, because I don't really get it.

So, as such I'm on the fence for the next couple of hours, hopefully there will be a bit more posting closer to the end of day.

Also, teletubbies? Really? Glad Tiam took one for the team there...

I noticed this phrase here, which popped up a couple of posts later in a similar sort of post by Anomandaris:

Anomandaris, on 29 November 2011 - 08:22 AM, said:

well a lo of two and fro on day 1. Interesting that people say i was interacting with galain and rashan when someone voted for me and another voted for them and I hadnt nor did post since. Early cases are always hard to fathom, and day 1 when people havent really started make that more so.

The triple vote was very strange, people seem to forget that no matter if you are town or scum you should always try at least to look inno. Strange voting behaviour never looks like an inno tactic.

3 vote Thyrllan: Emurlahn, Mockra, Kessobahn

3 votes Kesso: Thryllan, Atrahal, Galain

1 vote Atrahal: Hood's Path

This voting also looks highly suspect given that three people are voting for kesso and both mockra and kesso come on to vote thyrllan while hp comes on and builds against atrahal with a case built on more than one player voting for another player within a certain time frame. Though i dont find thyrllan or kesso especially suspicious by their content the division of votes at what is generally a turning point phase of the day makes me think there is something in this.

vote kessobahn

The atrahal and thyrllan votes feel more like a way to counteract this train than an actual case built upon suspicious activity.

Made me think perhaps Anomandaris was trying to let Ruse know that he was her symp. Later on I had a look over Ruse...it was perhaps slightly kinder than it should have been. Ruse comes back and says:

Ruse, on 30 November 2011 - 01:01 AM, said:

Oh piss, didn't see your post on me, Galain.

Thanks dude, now I look like a low poster who's seen their name and come when called.
<.<

Now, what if Ruse thinks I'm her symp because of the way I was mildly positive about her contribution? In that light, this post reads like an admonishment for letting their master look bad.




It's kind of tenuous, and as I said I normally don't try to make these kinds of cases because I don't think they hold a lot of water, but I thought it was worth putting out there since these two are being discussed.

[Emurlahn]

Thyrllan, on 30 November 2011 - 09:41 PM, said:

Galain, on 30 November 2011 - 09:29 PM, said:

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 09:11 PM, said:

Having said that, just so people know where my current suspicions lie:

Vote Anomandaris

Next best choice for me is Ruse, then Mockra and Thyrllan.

I've taken a look at your Anomandaris case, Osseric. I'm not quite sure I see your point though. The post you quoted feels like it does contain a valid reason to me. One thing that does feel weird about Ano is that he makes no effort to generate any in the time he was here for. He does a little speculation about scum blocs, but doesn't give any indication as to who he thinks is vote-worthy.

I'm a little miffed at Ruse, who took my call for more content and gave...absolutely nothing. Rereading what I said in my summary, I might have been giving them too much leeway because of their lowposter status. I can kind of see Omtose's point that of the set of votes, Ruse's is the most suspicious.

that's an amusing xpost edit: wait no its not I dont get it I think I thought osseric was Ano. I am not the sense


As for whom do I suspect? Well I already said my bit about Tennes. Re-read his posts, and there's not much to say about him. His larger posts he really rambles about finding HP to be so awful but never goes so far as to say anyone might be scum or, heaven forbid, vote for someone who doesn't have a 5-person train already.

I'm going to drop my Tennes vote now, might as well get the options out there on the board.

vote Tennes

at the same time, Rashan is a big up-and-comer on my scumdar. I wouldn't say he's likely to be the Hojo chieftain, but he's been vigorous enough pushing cases in a single-mindedness that doesn't match up with his getting as much content about other cases in as he can. What I mean is that he looks like he's talking about everything equally as a good little townie should, but at the same time he only really puts any push towards one particular case at a time because he wants to keep the real focus there.

Goddammit get out of my head. I agree with EVERYTHING you just said.

I think that's a quite fine alternative. Now if someone could do some digging? I won't have time to re-read until later tonight, which will be after the deadline.

Does Tennes have a lot of possible connections? I love that, if they do CF scum.

[Emurlahn]

@Galain.

The two and fro-ing thing is weird. How often do you read that?

[Galain]

Emurlahn, on 30 November 2011 - 09:52 PM, said:

@Galain.

The two and fro-ing thing is weird. How often do you read that?

They both misspelled 'to' as well, which is why it initially caught my eye .


I notice that Anomandaris has had no interaction with Ruse apart from this...could imagine a symp avoiding contact apart from where necessary. But then again, that could well be confirmation bias talking.




@Thyrllan: I'll go and have a look at Tennes. Must admit that he hasn't really crossed my radar as of yet.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2, 5 hours and 27 minutes are left.

15 players alive: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Emurlahn, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Meanas, Mockra, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Spite, Tennes, Thryllan

8 votes to lynch

4 votes Thyrllan: Spite, Meanas, Rashan, Emurlahn
1 vote Anomandaris: Osseric
1 vote Ruse: Omtose
1 vote Tennes: Thyrllan




Players not voting: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Gamelon, Galain, Hood's Path, Mockra, Ruse, Tennes,

[Emurlahn]

5 hours? Plenty of time.

Remove Vote

So people don't log on and pile on the train.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2, 5 hours and 15 minutes are left.

15 players alive: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Emurlahn, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Meanas, Mockra, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Spite, Tennes, Thryllan

8 votes to lynch

3 votes Thyrllan: Spite, Meanas, Rashan
1 vote Anomandaris: Osseric
1 vote Ruse: Omtose
1 vote Tennes: Thyrllan




Players not voting: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Emurlahn, Gamelon, Galain, Hood's Path, Mockra, Ruse, Tennes,

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 30 November 2011 - 10:09 PM

[Gamelon]

Galain, on 30 November 2011 - 09:56 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on 30 November 2011 - 09:52 PM, said:

@Galain.

The two and fro-ing thing is weird. How often do you read that?

They both misspelled 'to' as well, which is why it initially caught my eye .


I notice that Anomandaris has had no interaction with Ruse apart from this...could imagine a symp avoiding contact apart from where necessary. But then again, that could well be confirmation bias talking.




@Thyrllan: I'll go and have a look at Tennes. Must admit that he hasn't really crossed my radar as of yet.

You've either pulled a nice catch out of your butt, or grabbed a straw

Do you really think if Ruse was taking you for a symp they would point out that you helped them look bad?

[Thyrllan]

Actually, I really like that signaling catch. For them both to mispell it like that? Seems so unlikely to me that that could happen. And Ano putting it so early in his post makes it look so pointed, too.

I know signaling isn't really a thing anymore... but maybe that's what they want us to think?

[Thyrllan]

Unfortunately though, I have to run. I might be able to get back on in about an hour, put not for sure. A bit of a gamble that this catches on, but I like it so I'm switching to Ruse

remove vote
vote Ruse

Hope I'm back before lyncheeness. Also hope its not me! :couch: