[Korlat]

Thats 2 FBI down already right?

[Tennes]

Korlat, on 12 September 2011 - 02:05 PM, said:

Thats 2 FBI down already right?

Possibly, though with FM'ing going on it's not a certainty, which makes things a bit trickier.

[Silanah]

two fbi down, one outfit, that doesn't change the win conditions yet though. we'd have to lynch either another agent, or lynch a member of the outfit twice in a row. we're still fairly neutral although if we did lynch an agent next that puts us in a more prominent position.

[Tennes]

Silanah, on 12 September 2011 - 02:24 PM, said:

two fbi down, one outfit, that doesn't change the win conditions yet though. we'd have to lynch either another agent, or lynch a member of the outfit twice in a row. we're still fairly neutral although if we did lynch an agent next that puts us in a more prominent position.

I don't really think were fairly neutral.

It's in towns interest to be on the winning faction.

Taking the night CFs at face value, the outfit is ahead. If we lynch outfit it evens things out. As you say, lynching FBI puts us in a strong position, as it would give the outfit a strong lead. At this point it seems like it's definitely in our interests to try and lynch FBI. One team winning strongly is probably better for town as a whole than a team winning by a narrow margin, since a marginal victory will most likely be the result of the town lynching fairly evenly.

[Korabas]

Ok, so I know this has flaws so don't immediately go biting my head off, but: I've made a list of those who didn't post in between the time that PS declared night before the weekend and the time PS declared there was still 3 hours left and some night actions had still not been received. Those people are:

Alkend
Thyrllan
Telas
Serc

I can't remember a single thing from most of them (apart from how much I hate the Thyrllan alt from the last game), aside from Telas, who came in for a bit of heat over his 'gun' comment on day 1.

Edit: Originally included Ampelas on the list, but duh, Ampelas is dead. And it may have been his action we were waiting on too.

This post has been edited by Korabas: 12 September 2011 - 02:40 PM

[Korabas]

Tennes, on 12 September 2011 - 02:33 PM, said:

Silanah, on 12 September 2011 - 02:24 PM, said:

two fbi down, one outfit, that doesn't change the win conditions yet though. we'd have to lynch either another agent, or lynch a member of the outfit twice in a row. we're still fairly neutral although if we did lynch an agent next that puts us in a more prominent position.

I don't really think were fairly neutral.

It's in towns interest to be on the winning faction.

Taking the night CFs at face value, the outfit is ahead. If we lynch outfit it evens things out. As you say, lynching FBI puts us in a strong position, as it would give the outfit a strong lead. At this point it seems like it's definitely in our interests to try and lynch FBI. One team winning strongly is probably better for town as a whole than a team winning by a narrow margin, since a marginal victory will most likely be the result of the town lynching fairly evenly.

Probably true, though is there any real way for us to tell who's FBI and who's outfit? At the moment it still seems to be more about identifying who's in a faction rather than town and lynching them.

Edit: Grammar

This post has been edited by Korabas: 12 September 2011 - 02:37 PM

[Tennes]

Korabas, on 12 September 2011 - 02:37 PM, said:

Tennes, on 12 September 2011 - 02:33 PM, said:

Silanah, on 12 September 2011 - 02:24 PM, said:

two fbi down, one outfit, that doesn't change the win conditions yet though. we'd have to lynch either another agent, or lynch a member of the outfit twice in a row. we're still fairly neutral although if we did lynch an agent next that puts us in a more prominent position.

I don't really think were fairly neutral.

It's in towns interest to be on the winning faction.

Taking the night CFs at face value, the outfit is ahead. If we lynch outfit it evens things out. As you say, lynching FBI puts us in a strong position, as it would give the outfit a strong lead. At this point it seems like it's definitely in our interests to try and lynch FBI. One team winning strongly is probably better for town as a whole than a team winning by a narrow margin, since a marginal victory will most likely be the result of the town lynching fairly evenly.

Probably true, though is there any real way for us to tell who's FBI and who's outfit? At the moment it still seems to be more about identifying who's in a faction rather than town and lynching them.

Edit: Grammar

A good start would be looking at the actions of those we know to be FBI.

For example, Anthras was on the first proper train of day one, ano, along with Tellan and Korbas, all voting in a sort of jokey manner.

Korbas also drew a random vote from Karosis early, over Karosis disliking his avatar.

Of course, it's harder to look at interaction when there was so little of it...

[Kessobahn]

Anything interesting happen over the weekend other than Vengy's spawn finally arriving? I'm off to catch up.

[Serc]

Korabas, on 12 September 2011 - 02:35 PM, said:

Ok, so I know this has flaws so don't immediately go biting my head off, but: I've made a list of those who didn't post in between the time that PS declared night before the weekend and the time PS declared there was still 3 hours left and some night actions had still not been received. Those people are:

Alkend
Thyrllan
Telas
Serc

I can't remember a single thing from most of them (apart from how much I hate the Thyrllan alt from the last game), aside from Telas, who came in for a bit of heat over his 'gun' comment on day 1.

Edit: Originally included Ampelas on the list, but duh, Ampelas is dead. And it may have been his action we were waiting on too.

I was asleep...

Anyway, I think the NKs couldn't have gone better. No town deaths. I don't have much of a read on Telas or Thyrllan, I'm going to re-read the thread in a minute.

Alkend, on 08 September 2011 - 06:51 PM, said:

Bam!! Another dragon. Let the wild rumpus start!

Cool setup with a lot of players. This should be a ton-o-fun.

This is all I have on Alkend. The "bam" thing seems strange, but I'm stretching.

Personally, I'm just glad day/night 1 ended that well. Only would have been better if the Outfit NK was an FBI.

[Korbas]

With a maximum of 4 potential kills each night, 2 non-town deaths is fortuitous indeed. It also means we have less CF info to work with, but gives us more time (in game days) to figure things out.

[Anomandaris]

The description for the ampelas sounds like a FM jump to me, there is no description of a death.

still just waking up....need coffee

[Kalse]

JA's dead already? :lmao:

[Tellan]

Ok, in light of the new information, and going back through the past day and night, here are some interesting quotes that I spotted.

Kalse, on 09 September 2011 - 03:08 AM, said:

this being Vengy, i'm assuming FM will work the classic "takes 2 days to jump" way. therefore, I wouldn't put much stock in the FM kills.

that being said, it does appear to be an exercise in random lynching untill we get some CFs at this point.

vote Tennes

for ruining the dragon sex party.

I wonder if Kalse could be the FM for one of the teams because he brings up only that role's dynamics and describes a situation that can not happen according the OP (which Kalse should have known after seeing Venge's "jump-every-night" condition). We have seen in previous games that sometimes people spend a lot of time debating or misleading on their own role.

Anthras, on 09 September 2011 - 10:44 AM, said:

P.S. I forgot to add that it is still possible for 2 people to push some momentum for a de-rail, hence me staying on Ano.

Ampelas, on 09 September 2011 - 02:30 PM, said:

Anthras, on 09 September 2011 - 01:22 PM, said:

Not sure how much I'll be around in the next 5 hours or so, so in case:

remove vote

vote Sorrit


I love how Ampelas votes Kessobahn for not wanting to lynch and piles on a 0-vote lynch train with 5 hours left in the day

Hey now, it was 7 hours and there were only 4 votes on Sorrit at the time.

Remove Vote

This is a fun interaction to observe, especially now that we know they were both roled and on opposite teams. You will notice that Anthras held onto his vote on Anomandaris before finally switching when the train on Sorrit finally started gaining momentum (and after I myself had removed my vote, making the vote count on Anomandaris decrease from 3 to 2). I wonder if Anthras was just trying to avoid forming a train on a fellow teammate or if he genuinely thought that Anomandaris was not on his team and was likely Family not FBI.

As for Ampelas, I think his vote for Kess confirms my theory that roled players would use the strategy of being the first to vote for someone to give the impression of voting without a high risk of starting a lynch train (which is especially true at the time Amp cast his vote). This doesn't exclude the possibility that Amp guessed Kess to be roled, but I think this may be less likely since Amp was just tossing a vote while the train moved on Sorrit.

Anomandaris, on 10 September 2011 - 05:06 PM, said:

Silanah, on 10 September 2011 - 04:47 PM, said:

6-7 hours later and my post was the last one to arrive? someone still not got their actions in? I'll check back in the morning.

sounds like you thought yours would be the last night action to arrive.

I know where my vote is going tomorrow.

So where is Anomandaris' vote now? He seemed absolutely sure he caught a Silanah in a slip up. Unfortunately, from what I can see, Silanah posted something 6-7 hours prior to this suspicious comment, and was thus referring to that post not a PM sent to PS. I wish we had that easy of a lynch, but Anomandaris' is reading things incorrectly once again. Is poor eyesight linked to be a roled player?

Path-Shaper, on 09 September 2011 - 04:04 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 1 hour and 58 minutes remaining
21 Players still alive: Alkend, Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, Kalse, Karosis, Kessobahn, Korabas, Korbas, Korlat, Serc, Shadow, Silanah, Sorrit, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha, Tulas Shorn

11 votes to lynch, 11 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Kessobahn ( Ampelas )
11 Votes for Sorrit ( Shadow, Serc, Korabas, Tennes, Korlat, Tulas Shorn, Telas, Tellan, Tiamatha, Silanah, Anthras )
2 Votes for Korbas ( Karosis, Anomandaris )
1 Vote for Anomandaris ( Korbas )
1 Vote for Tennes ( Kalse )
1 Vote for Silanah ( Alkend )

Players not voted: Atrahal, Kessobahn, Sorrit, Thyrllan

Korabas, on 12 September 2011 - 02:35 PM, said:

Ok, so I know this has flaws so don't immediately go biting my head off, but: I've made a list of those who didn't post in between the time that PS declared night before the weekend and the time PS declared there was still 3 hours left and some night actions had still not been received. Those people are:

Alkend
Thyrllan
Telas
Serc

I can't remember a single thing from most of them (apart from how much I hate the Thyrllan alt from the last game), aside from Telas, who came in for a bit of heat over his 'gun' comment on day 1.

Edit: Originally included Ampelas on the list, but duh, Ampelas is dead. And it may have been his action we were waiting on too.

Finally I wanted to point out a connection between day one's lynch stats and those who did not talk over the weekend night freeze. The only one on both lists is Thyrllan. This makes me think, also considering the low content and low number of posts from Thyr, that either Thyr is busy in RL or trying to hide. As for the other's listed in the no vote on day 1 category, Sorrit was roled and FBI, and Kess was fingered by another roled person, namely Amp. Atrahal is hard to get a read on so far imao, but he did seem to vote with serious intent over the night phase, which is either a total newbie mistake or a distraction/distancing from his target Tennes, who I've already said is suspicious for several reasons.

Of the other people on the second list (no posts over the weekend) two are already low posters (Telas and Serc), but one, Alkend, normally posts more so one wonders if he was busy or lying low (or just thought posting during the night was pointless as some have mentioned during the night in their own posts ).

So the above is already yet another lengthy analysis, so I will finish this post. But I would like to hear from a lot of these people to gage what they have to say for themselves. I would also, maybe in another post, like to start thinking about what we think the guards, healers, and finders were up to over night....

[Tellan]

Anthras, on 09 September 2011 - 05:14 PM, said:

Hahaha, sometimes the simplest cases are true

Kalse, on 12 September 2011 - 05:19 PM, said:

JA's dead already? :lmao:

Also thought the similarity of the quotes was kind of interesting, but not putting much stock in this observation.... yet.

[Tellan]

Well here are my thoughts on the roles that are more behind the scenes: Guard, Healer, and Finder. So we had 2 out of 4 possible kills. This could indicate several possible things:

1. a FM failed to find an opposing team member to jump into
2. a guard stopped a FM or Capo/Cop from using their power
3. a healer prevented a NK or jump
4. the Capo/Cop attacked the Prosecutor/Don respectively and took out a BP
5. the FM tried to jump into the Prosecutor/Don respectively and thus failed
6. a FM or Capo/Cop failed to submit their provisional to the PS in time

Did I miss any? Anyways, I'm not sure where to go from here. I think it would be safe to assume we had one successful jump and one successful kill, mostly to be vigilant of any personality changes in the alts. That being said, both Anthras and Amp were relatively talkative (esp when compared to Telas or Thyr) but not talkative enough to be completely impossible to imitate. But as I said, I'm not sure how to begin teasing apart these above scenarios...

I would also remind everyone that the Don/Prosecutor just sent out their first PM to another member of their team. The OP doesn't seem to put a limit on this message, so we have to assume that if the Don/Prosecutor wished, he could instruct someone how to play for the remainder of the game in addition to revealing to that person who were their other teammates. So for night 1, everyone except the Don/Prosecutor and their Capo/Cop are flying entirely blind. However now, we have more people in the know.

And finally, the mole has now whispered their find to the Don/Prosecutor via PM, so the next night may be even more targeted. Another thing to keep in mind.

[Tellan]

Ok, lunch break is over. I will probably be back in another 5-6 hours or so, hopefully.

[Alkend]

I'm here and gonna go catch up.

[Serc]

Tellan, on 12 September 2011 - 05:30 PM, said:

Anthras, on 09 September 2011 - 05:14 PM, said:

Hahaha, sometimes the simplest cases are true

Kalse, on 12 September 2011 - 05:19 PM, said:

JA's dead already? :lmao:

Also thought the similarity of the quotes was kind of interesting, but not putting much stock in this observation.... yet.

I missed that, fantastic catch.

On a side note, I just realized that I misread the post of Korabas. Nothing interesting went on over the weekend, and I decided to keep quiet. The idea of speculating during the extended night period made me nervous.

As to being a low poster, I didn't have enough information on day 1 to make any decent cases (obviously). I'm not one for spam.

Now on to something more interesting...

Anthras, on 09 September 2011 - 06:51 AM, said:

Well, as expected, there's really nothing behind any of the votes. Kinda hard to build a case when you have no ennemy

Anyways, what to do? If my team becomes the enemy of whoever I manage to damage, that's win-win in my books. Let's try to optimise the damage then...

Anomandaris, on 09 September 2011 - 12:16 AM, said:

Quote

The Doctor _________. Cannot be jumped into.

I don't think I read this wrong.

vote Anomandaris

Note that his quote doesn't say "quote=Path Shaper". He's quoting from his PM, not the OP

Anthras, on 09 September 2011 - 10:43 AM, said:

Not sure if enough of the factions know of each other enough to have a de-railing happening. Who's the most known? The Consigliore/Special agent? And even then, only by 2 people if I understand correctly.

Now it's 4 for Sorrit, and I'm on a train with 3. So I'm happy here, but I would switch if needed

Do the quotes above lead anyone else to the idea of Anthras distancing himself from Anomandaris? It seems risky, yes, but during the second quote he seems to deny a derailment happening. I see Anthras as being Special Agent In charge and Anomandaris as Head Prosecutor. Anyone else have an opinion here?

[Alkend]

Silanah, on 12 September 2011 - 02:24 PM, said:

two fbi down, one outfit, that doesn't change the win conditions yet though. we'd have to lynch either another agent, or lynch a member of the outfit twice in a row. we're still fairly neutral although if we did lynch an agent next that puts us in a more prominent position.

Thats assuming you got in on the first lynch (which I didn't -.-). That train built FAST, as expected.

[Alkend]

Korabas, on 12 September 2011 - 02:35 PM, said:

Ok, so I know this has flaws so don't immediately go biting my head off, but: I've made a list of those who didn't post in between the time that PS declared night before the weekend and the time PS declared there was still 3 hours left and some night actions had still not been received. Those people are:

Alkend
Thyrllan
Telas
Serc

I can't remember a single thing from most of them (apart from how much I hate the Thyrllan alt from the last game), aside from Telas, who came in for a bit of heat over his 'gun' comment on day 1.

Edit: Originally included Ampelas on the list, but duh, Ampelas is dead. And it may have been his action we were waiting on too.

I don't generally talk at night. I glanced at the thread a couple times this weekend to see if night was over, but it wasn't so I just moved on. Was mostly just banter anyway.