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Telas- If there was another town guard out there he would have revealed by now... long ago in fact when we all PI'd Osseric on day 2/3. Stop barking up that tree. There is nothing up there.
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#823
Telas 
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:35 PM
D, on 30 August 2011 - 07:13 PM, said:
What's this..i dont even... have my pants on straight!
The second guard is a scum guard, he isn't going to tell us who he guarded. It was probably a RI. They wouldn't notice being guarded. i didn't say the second guard was scum. see above response to barghast.
it's way too late in the game for this type of speculation. We have to make decisions based on what we know. it's also way too late in the game to have roled players popping out of the wood-work. i deal with what is placed in front of me. plus, it wasn't me who pointed out the presence of a second guard, so don't blame me for complicating things.
It's a scum guard... they aren't gonna tell us anything.
TS as a finder was a THEORY by Thyr a suspected symp. we can not base any decisions on this. Let alone assume it's a fact. and the trust of those who have revealed roles is also THEORETICAL. sorry without explicit proof an with the danger of a scum guard, i am not ruling anything out entirely
Yes. Barghast and Kara are essentially in the same boat now. If you think one is scum, they both are. If one is inno, both are.
He hasn't been modkilled yet, you can't exclude him from the game at this point. did i say he had been modkilled? this is a theory, guessing the future, etc. is past, present and future tense a problem for you?
So says you. Interesting vote though indeed, but as i said earlier today, d'riss, kara and silanah are the top three on my list. i have given reasons for moving down to top pick number 3. consistent and potentially stupid, that's me!
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
hold on a sec. so we are going with the idea that there are two guards correct? and we are assuming that on night 3, osseric guards barghast who claims to be a finder (and thus cannot find) and d'riss heals osseric potentially stopping a kill. the next night (night 4) osseric guards barghast again (to confirm whether or not he was a killer), preventing barghast from finding again. that same night, d'riss was guarded by another unknown player, preventing his unnecessary heal on silanah
so the mystery remains, who did the second guard stop on night three. if that guard was townie, could he have stopped the kill, invalidating d'riss' claim?
so the mystery remains, who did the second guard stop on night three. if that guard was townie, could he have stopped the kill, invalidating d'riss' claim?
The second guard is a scum guard, he isn't going to tell us who he guarded. It was probably a RI. They wouldn't notice being guarded. i didn't say the second guard was scum. see above response to barghast.
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
i just had a thought btw. what if this game is a mirror image? what if there is a scum guard and a townie guard, a scum killer and a townie healer, and a scum finder and townie finder? and then the rest are RI's for town or scum. this arrangement would validate thyr's claims of TS being a finder, would explain why there is only one kill per night, and also explain why there are two guards. town rules the day, scum rules the night. town gets day kills, scum gets night kills
this also makes me think that fener and thyr are a pair of opposites. we have the silenced one and the talkative one. the problem is, we don't know which is which.
this also makes me think that fener and thyr are a pair of opposites. we have the silenced one and the talkative one. the problem is, we don't know which is which.
it's way too late in the game for this type of speculation. We have to make decisions based on what we know. it's also way too late in the game to have roled players popping out of the wood-work. i deal with what is placed in front of me. plus, it wasn't me who pointed out the presence of a second guard, so don't blame me for complicating things.
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
so, if our mystery guard is alive, perhaps they can tell us who they guarded on night 3. this would let us know if it really was d'riss who stopped the kill or if it was that other guard.
It's a scum guard... they aren't gonna tell us anything.
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
one other thing that points out: we cannot assume roled players are town. osseric is probably a guard, but for which side? i think, if people really do implicitly trust d'riss to be the healer, that would definitely make d'riss a townie. that leaves TS (who CFed inno, which is odd if he was a finder) and Barghast as the finders, one of whom is scum and one of whom was townie. and thyr and fener were the oddballs, though which one is scum is beyond me.
TS as a finder was a THEORY by Thyr a suspected symp. we can not base any decisions on this. Let alone assume it's a fact. and the trust of those who have revealed roles is also THEORETICAL. sorry without explicit proof an with the danger of a scum guard, i am not ruling anything out entirely
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
so that leaves silanah, kara, anthras, and myself, right? kara is spoken for by barghast, so whatever team kara is on, barghast is on as well.
Yes. Barghast and Kara are essentially in the same boat now. If you think one is scum, they both are. If one is inno, both are.
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
anthras should be mod killed, so that leaves silanah and myself.
He hasn't been modkilled yet, you can't exclude him from the game at this point. did i say he had been modkilled? this is a theory, guessing the future, etc. is past, present and future tense a problem for you?
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
for myself, i will argue that i have been consistently confused and straight forward, standing out like a sore thumb. this would be odd for a killer, especially for an entire game (also very difficult to accomplish if I was faking it). ao if you all vote for me, i will take it as a compliment that you think my behavior is a performance worthy of top level scum, the big cheese killer.
silanah, on the otherhand, has been laying low. keeping under the radar except for a gradual increase in posts towards this point in the game. this behavior is not as challenging as faking stupidity. in fact, it is very consistent with the behavior of many scum killers in the past.
now i am roleless inno, which means either anthras or silanah is a guard or killer if my theory is correct. i hate to see the guard go if he is townie, but in the end, as long as the guard and killer both go, town is in a good position, right?
So says you. Interesting vote though.
Vote Silanah
silanah, on the otherhand, has been laying low. keeping under the radar except for a gradual increase in posts towards this point in the game. this behavior is not as challenging as faking stupidity. in fact, it is very consistent with the behavior of many scum killers in the past.
now i am roleless inno, which means either anthras or silanah is a guard or killer if my theory is correct. i hate to see the guard go if he is townie, but in the end, as long as the guard and killer both go, town is in a good position, right?
So says you. Interesting vote though.
Vote Silanah
So says you. Interesting vote though indeed, but as i said earlier today, d'riss, kara and silanah are the top three on my list. i have given reasons for moving down to top pick number 3. consistent and potentially stupid, that's me!
#824
D'riss
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:40 PM
Anthras, on 17 August 2011 - 05:47 PM, said:
Galain nekkid!!
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
I would submit this quote, on Day 1 as evidence that Silanah and Anthras aren't paired.
#825
D'riss
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:45 PM
I would also submit this post that Barghast and Anthras can't be paired. (well, unlikely anyway)
Though I appreciate the support... Now it looks like you are symping me.
I play at work. I post when I can, I happened to start my response, get pulled away, then finished it. Anth, just had the same, and logical, question I had. Why vote the symp rather than the sympee.
Oh, I am symping no-one. I merely thought Anthras was acting like a petulant child, so I threw out that he was overthinking.
Now I get thrown at me that I ignore other parts, so @ Anthras: go fuck yourself.
I'm not here to write books on RP (that I skipped, I'll wait for content instead of watching people inflate their post count), nor am I here to provide my detailed analysis of everything that has gone by, including stuff I don't deem significant. Instead, I made a comment on something in your post that I thought was a rather regular occurance and your reaction rather petulant. I could dissect that entire post, but before we know it, you'd put your groceries shopping list on thread and I'd be commenting on your shopping list and asking if you went for Heinz extra spicy Ketchup or Regular.
Instead, I'll stick to what my pea sized brain can process and to what to me are interesting and potentially interesting situations. You throwing a tantrum over D'riss was to me more interesting than some RP conclusion (of a page 1 that I skimmed) so I chose to answer that.
Barghast, on 17 August 2011 - 06:58 PM, said:
D, on 17 August 2011 - 06:34 PM, said:
Barghast, on 17 August 2011 - 06:12 PM, said:
Hullo all. 3 votes on someone already, now isn;t that a weird, weird thing for so early day 1? Are we that glad to provide Morghy with a co-mod?
@ Anthras: I wouldn't read too much in D'riss asking the same question you did. We all love to be the one to be the first with the bright idea and sometimes the only way to have that Eureka! moment is by ignoring others who had it before you did. Moreoever, the more people say the same thing, the more there is a chance it gets listened to.
So, don't get your panties in a bunch, right now, you seem like a real eager kid who wants a sweet for being the smart one.
Unless............... the thing about it that got you all hot and bothered is that you read it as a very open symping attempt by D'riss through parroting, and you fear we'll find out, so you distance by calling it into question? If that's the case, wow, I'm gooooooooooood at this game.
Good to see we skipped most of the regular day 1 RP, though.
Barghast out for now, again.
@ Anthras: I wouldn't read too much in D'riss asking the same question you did. We all love to be the one to be the first with the bright idea and sometimes the only way to have that Eureka! moment is by ignoring others who had it before you did. Moreoever, the more people say the same thing, the more there is a chance it gets listened to.
So, don't get your panties in a bunch, right now, you seem like a real eager kid who wants a sweet for being the smart one.
Unless............... the thing about it that got you all hot and bothered is that you read it as a very open symping attempt by D'riss through parroting, and you fear we'll find out, so you distance by calling it into question? If that's the case, wow, I'm gooooooooooood at this game.
Good to see we skipped most of the regular day 1 RP, though.
Barghast out for now, again.
Though I appreciate the support... Now it looks like you are symping me.
I play at work. I post when I can, I happened to start my response, get pulled away, then finished it. Anth, just had the same, and logical, question I had. Why vote the symp rather than the sympee.
Oh, I am symping no-one. I merely thought Anthras was acting like a petulant child, so I threw out that he was overthinking.
Quote
It kinda seems that way, doesn't it?
I mentioned both you and Silanah - yet Barghast only commented on the parts I mentioned about you.
I mentioned both you and Silanah - yet Barghast only commented on the parts I mentioned about you.
Now I get thrown at me that I ignore other parts, so @ Anthras: go fuck yourself.
I'm not here to write books on RP (that I skipped, I'll wait for content instead of watching people inflate their post count), nor am I here to provide my detailed analysis of everything that has gone by, including stuff I don't deem significant. Instead, I made a comment on something in your post that I thought was a rather regular occurance and your reaction rather petulant. I could dissect that entire post, but before we know it, you'd put your groceries shopping list on thread and I'd be commenting on your shopping list and asking if you went for Heinz extra spicy Ketchup or Regular.
Instead, I'll stick to what my pea sized brain can process and to what to me are interesting and potentially interesting situations. You throwing a tantrum over D'riss was to me more interesting than some RP conclusion (of a page 1 that I skimmed) so I chose to answer that.
#826
Osseric
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:48 PM
It comes down to who we can trust or who we would trust over others to get a good lynch.
To answer D'riss, heal yourself man, if I go down I go down but if you go down then they could kill me next anyway assuming we are not at WCS.
If we are at WCS then it doesn't matter as much because scum would win if we get it wrong.
I cannot see two guards being around, I just don't see it, maybe it was a mistake by PS because you targeted Silanah and Korlat died. This would mean that your heal wouldn't have worked.
To answer D'riss, heal yourself man, if I go down I go down but if you go down then they could kill me next anyway assuming we are not at WCS.
If we are at WCS then it doesn't matter as much because scum would win if we get it wrong.
I cannot see two guards being around, I just don't see it, maybe it was a mistake by PS because you targeted Silanah and Korlat died. This would mean that your heal wouldn't have worked.
#827
Barghast
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:52 PM
D, on 30 August 2011 - 07:34 PM, said:
Barghast, why did you wait so long to reveal?
Because I had very little info to share, basically. Just an alignment of 1 person except myself who is currently in the game. Then you revealed, and I wanted to see if your reveal was enough to end up with the suspect pool that my reveal has created now. If so, why create the controversy by revealing as well? It only made sense to do when Kara started crying instead of defending as I could see the votes pile up on him, resulting in the lynch of the one other person in the game who I know will CF as town. He may be a symp still, of course, but if he is not a symp, then I stood by and watched us lose.
Secondly, Kara and myself are people that other people have difficulty with. It's very interesting to see how people react and who jumps on what train on d-day, and that has now completely changed. Sure, we're going to make an informed decision as a group on who to lynch, but any chance of watching someone trying to start up a weird, weird lynch train just to get a lynch is now gone, unless Telas is doing just that, of course
. Finally, well... I've been quite under fire for the past few game days. I've not exactly been the favorite townie of many of you and I feared a whole lot more emotion and denial plus attacks and votes on me, instead of the current cool headed analysis. In that way, I'm pleasantly surprised that the waters are still and crystal clear and everyone is peering through it towards the bottom of the well instead of trying to throw as many stones in it in petty outrage.
#828
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:53 PM
First, in order to answer D'riss' query about who to heal/guard: There is a 12-hour night. Therefore, it makes smurf to Thyrllan to discuss this after we see the result of the lynch, because what we coordinate may have lost its relevance after the lynch, depending on the result. When we know the CF, we will know better who to heal/guard. If Thyrllan were forced into making a decision now though, Thyrllan would smurf D'riss heal themselves and Osseric guard the partner of the lynched killer (duh). As to that latter:
Thyrllan is going to smurf on about partnerships again....
It seems to smurf down to if we believe Barghast's reveal, then Anthras, Silanah, Telas and Thyrllan are the only suspects.
If we don't believe Barghast's reveal, then Barghast and Karatallid become the prime smurfs, but without the others being discounted also.
If we believe Barghast: Thyrllan knows that Thyrllan is not killer. Thyrllan also does not smurf Telas and Silanah being partnered killers. This leaves (for Thyrllan), Anthras and Silanah, or Anthras and Telas.
So, in both cases, Anthras appears. Unfortunately, Anthras has not been around. Telas, again does not strike Thyrllan as killer (speculation though), so Anthras and Silanah would be the likelier smurfship.
If we believe Barghast.
Thyrllan is going to smurf on about partnerships again....
It seems to smurf down to if we believe Barghast's reveal, then Anthras, Silanah, Telas and Thyrllan are the only suspects.
If we don't believe Barghast's reveal, then Barghast and Karatallid become the prime smurfs, but without the others being discounted also.
If we believe Barghast: Thyrllan knows that Thyrllan is not killer. Thyrllan also does not smurf Telas and Silanah being partnered killers. This leaves (for Thyrllan), Anthras and Silanah, or Anthras and Telas.
So, in both cases, Anthras appears. Unfortunately, Anthras has not been around. Telas, again does not strike Thyrllan as killer (speculation though), so Anthras and Silanah would be the likelier smurfship.
If we believe Barghast.
#829
Osseric
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:58 PM
We could test Barghast reveal and lynch Kara.
We could go with the traditional thoughts on (this is a simple M&P game so what is Thyr doing) and lynch him.
Just cause D'riss inputted healer into a code early on doesn't mean he is the healer, he could be scum pre empting his lynch train
Silanah stays quiet and may not receive any heat
Anthras is away and could be modkilled
Basically we could pick a multiude of reasons to vote for someone
Up until Barghast's reveal I have been wary of him, I have guarded him and everytime I have mentioned him he has appeared, Kara is also someone that is hot on the thread and watching what is going on, always around to add his thoughts and build cases.
The thing here for me is that if I believe Barghast and D'riss then Telas and Thyr have to go.
If I believe D'riss and still wary on Barghast then I could lynch Kara
I'm unsure which way to turn at the moment
In my head there are three lynch Candidates, (Silanah, Telas and Kara)
We could go with the traditional thoughts on (this is a simple M&P game so what is Thyr doing) and lynch him.
Just cause D'riss inputted healer into a code early on doesn't mean he is the healer, he could be scum pre empting his lynch train
Silanah stays quiet and may not receive any heat
Anthras is away and could be modkilled
Basically we could pick a multiude of reasons to vote for someone
Up until Barghast's reveal I have been wary of him, I have guarded him and everytime I have mentioned him he has appeared, Kara is also someone that is hot on the thread and watching what is going on, always around to add his thoughts and build cases.
The thing here for me is that if I believe Barghast and D'riss then Telas and Thyr have to go.
If I believe D'riss and still wary on Barghast then I could lynch Kara
I'm unsure which way to turn at the moment
In my head there are three lynch Candidates, (Silanah, Telas and Kara)
#830
D'riss
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:58 PM
Ok bear with me here...Based on my previous reasoning...which no one has really disputed I se the possible pairs as being:
Karatallid/Barghast
After this pairing it makes no sense for Barghy or Kara to be with anyone else as Barghast's reveal to save Kara would make no sense. See my prior post.
Anthras/Silanah
Anthras/Telas
Anthras/Thyr
Silanah/Telas
Silanah/Thyr
Telas/Thyr
Now I am going to remove Thyr from being a KILLER. Still might be scum, but after Fener's CF I am not including him in the Killer possibilities. This leaves:
Anthras/Silanah Based on the above quote where Anthras calls out Silanah on day 1, I am going to remove this one as well.
Anthras/Telas
Silanah/Telas (this one is weird..and why I called Telas' vote on Silanah Interesting.)
Karatallid/Barghast
To me...these are the most likely 3 killer combinations out there. We either believe Barghast's reveal and Vote Telas. Or we Think Barghast is full of shit and vote Barghast.
I don't see another option.
Where am I flawed. Please let me know.
I have to go to lunch.. If someone wants to go through and bring up interactions between Anthras/Telas, Silanah/Telas, Kara/Barghast I would appreciate it.
Karatallid/Barghast
After this pairing it makes no sense for Barghy or Kara to be with anyone else as Barghast's reveal to save Kara would make no sense. See my prior post.
Anthras/Silanah
Anthras/Telas
Anthras/Thyr
Silanah/Telas
Silanah/Thyr
Telas/Thyr
Now I am going to remove Thyr from being a KILLER. Still might be scum, but after Fener's CF I am not including him in the Killer possibilities. This leaves:
Anthras/Telas
Silanah/Telas (this one is weird..and why I called Telas' vote on Silanah Interesting.)
Karatallid/Barghast
To me...these are the most likely 3 killer combinations out there. We either believe Barghast's reveal and Vote Telas. Or we Think Barghast is full of shit and vote Barghast.
I don't see another option.
Where am I flawed. Please let me know.
I have to go to lunch.. If someone wants to go through and bring up interactions between Anthras/Telas, Silanah/Telas, Kara/Barghast I would appreciate it.
#831
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 07:58 PM
D, on 30 August 2011 - 07:40 PM, said:
Anthras, on 17 August 2011 - 05:47 PM, said:
Galain nekkid!!
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
I would submit this quote, on Day 1 as evidence that Silanah and Anthras aren't paired.
That is the same reason why Thyrllan initially ruled out Silanah and Anthras as paired killers in his large partners post of so smurf ago.
#832
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:01 PM
Thyrllan, on 30 August 2011 - 07:58 PM, said:
D, on 30 August 2011 - 07:40 PM, said:
Anthras, on 17 August 2011 - 05:47 PM, said:
Galain nekkid!!
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
I would submit this quote, on Day 1 as evidence that Silanah and Anthras aren't paired.
That is the same reason why Thyrllan initially ruled out Silanah and Anthras as paired killers in his large partners post of so smurf ago.
This is, of smurf, what Karatallid would term distancing
#833
D'riss
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:05 PM
Thyrllan, on 30 August 2011 - 07:53 PM, said:
First, in order to answer D'riss' query about who to heal/guard: There is a 12-hour night. Therefore, it makes smurf to Thyrllan to discuss this after we see the result of the lynch, because what we coordinate may have lost its relevance after the lynch, depending on the result. When we know the CF, we will know better who to heal/guard. If Thyrllan were forced into making a decision now though, Thyrllan would smurf D'riss heal themselves and Osseric guard the partner of the lynched killer (duh). As to that latter:
Thyrllan is going to smurf on about partnerships again....
It seems to smurf down to if we believe Barghast's reveal, then Anthras, Silanah, Telas and Thyrllan are the only suspects.
If we don't believe Barghast's reveal, then Barghast and Karatallid become the prime smurfs, but without the others being discounted also.
If we believe Barghast: Thyrllan knows that Thyrllan is not killer. Thyrllan also does not smurf Telas and Silanah being partnered killers. This leaves (for Thyrllan), Anthras and Silanah, or Anthras and Telas.
So, in both cases, Anthras appears. Unfortunately, Anthras has not been around. Telas, again does not strike Thyrllan as killer (speculation though), so Anthras and Silanah would be the likelier smurfship.
If we believe Barghast.
Thyrllan is going to smurf on about partnerships again....
It seems to smurf down to if we believe Barghast's reveal, then Anthras, Silanah, Telas and Thyrllan are the only suspects.
If we don't believe Barghast's reveal, then Barghast and Karatallid become the prime smurfs, but without the others being discounted also.
If we believe Barghast: Thyrllan knows that Thyrllan is not killer. Thyrllan also does not smurf Telas and Silanah being partnered killers. This leaves (for Thyrllan), Anthras and Silanah, or Anthras and Telas.
So, in both cases, Anthras appears. Unfortunately, Anthras has not been around. Telas, again does not strike Thyrllan as killer (speculation though), so Anthras and Silanah would be the likelier smurfship.
If we believe Barghast.
But you just told me that you had eliminated Silanah/Anthras. By you not thinking Telas is a killer and what you just said to me you have eliminated every possibility other than Barghy/Kara
#834
D'riss
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:09 PM
Osseric, on 30 August 2011 - 07:58 PM, said:
We could test Barghast reveal and lynch Kara.
We could go with the traditional thoughts on (this is a simple M&P game so what is Thyr doing) and lynch him.
Just cause D'riss inputted healer into a code early on doesn't mean he is the healer, he could be scum pre empting his lynch train
Silanah stays quiet and may not receive any heat
Anthras is away and could be modkilled
Basically we could pick a multiude of reasons to vote for someone
Up until Barghast's reveal I have been wary of him, I have guarded him and everytime I have mentioned him he has appeared, Kara is also someone that is hot on the thread and watching what is going on, always around to add his thoughts and build cases.
The thing here for me is that if I believe Barghast and D'riss then Telas and Thyr have to go.
If I believe D'riss and still wary on Barghast then I could lynch Kara
I'm unsure which way to turn at the moment
In my head there are three lynch Candidates, (Silanah, Telas and Kara)
We could go with the traditional thoughts on (this is a simple M&P game so what is Thyr doing) and lynch him.
Just cause D'riss inputted healer into a code early on doesn't mean he is the healer, he could be scum pre empting his lynch train
Silanah stays quiet and may not receive any heat
Anthras is away and could be modkilled
Basically we could pick a multiude of reasons to vote for someone
Up until Barghast's reveal I have been wary of him, I have guarded him and everytime I have mentioned him he has appeared, Kara is also someone that is hot on the thread and watching what is going on, always around to add his thoughts and build cases.
The thing here for me is that if I believe Barghast and D'riss then Telas and Thyr have to go.
If I believe D'riss and still wary on Barghast then I could lynch Kara
I'm unsure which way to turn at the moment
In my head there are three lynch Candidates, (Silanah, Telas and Kara)
I agree with your three candidates. Though by saying Kara..you implicitly implicate Barghast.
It comes down to if we believe Barghast or not. Simple as that.
I am going to lunch now for real. Back in a couple hours.
#835
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:09 PM
Re Anthras/Telas:
On many occasions on day 1 Anthras attacked Telas, and oft repeated that Telas is his main smurf for scum. I can see killers distancing by saying that they suspect each other, but saying that they are their no. 1 target?
On day 2, however, Telas went down to joint-second suspect for Anthras along with Tulas Shorn, Silanah, and Emurlahn. Notably, Telas objected to being smurfed in the same category as the others.
On day 3, Anthras accused Telas of smurfing up the next-day lynches with his accusations of Fener. When Fener accused Telas of being a killer, Anthras asked Fener who Fener thinks could be Telas' killer partner, and, not waiting for a reply, brought up Silanah as the most likely option.
On many occasions on day 1 Anthras attacked Telas, and oft repeated that Telas is his main smurf for scum. I can see killers distancing by saying that they suspect each other, but saying that they are their no. 1 target?
On day 2, however, Telas went down to joint-second suspect for Anthras along with Tulas Shorn, Silanah, and Emurlahn. Notably, Telas objected to being smurfed in the same category as the others.
On day 3, Anthras accused Telas of smurfing up the next-day lynches with his accusations of Fener. When Fener accused Telas of being a killer, Anthras asked Fener who Fener thinks could be Telas' killer partner, and, not waiting for a reply, brought up Silanah as the most likely option.
#836
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:11 PM
D, on 30 August 2011 - 08:05 PM, said:
Thyrllan, on 30 August 2011 - 07:53 PM, said:
First, in order to answer D'riss' query about who to heal/guard: There is a 12-hour night. Therefore, it makes smurf to Thyrllan to discuss this after we see the result of the lynch, because what we coordinate may have lost its relevance after the lynch, depending on the result. When we know the CF, we will know better who to heal/guard. If Thyrllan were forced into making a decision now though, Thyrllan would smurf D'riss heal themselves and Osseric guard the partner of the lynched killer (duh). As to that latter:
Thyrllan is going to smurf on about partnerships again....
It seems to smurf down to if we believe Barghast's reveal, then Anthras, Silanah, Telas and Thyrllan are the only suspects.
If we don't believe Barghast's reveal, then Barghast and Karatallid become the prime smurfs, but without the others being discounted also.
If we believe Barghast: Thyrllan knows that Thyrllan is not killer. Thyrllan also does not smurf Telas and Silanah being partnered killers. This leaves (for Thyrllan), Anthras and Silanah, or Anthras and Telas.
So, in both cases, Anthras appears. Unfortunately, Anthras has not been around. Telas, again does not strike Thyrllan as killer (speculation though), so Anthras and Silanah would be the likelier smurfship.
If we believe Barghast.
Thyrllan is going to smurf on about partnerships again....
It seems to smurf down to if we believe Barghast's reveal, then Anthras, Silanah, Telas and Thyrllan are the only suspects.
If we don't believe Barghast's reveal, then Barghast and Karatallid become the prime smurfs, but without the others being discounted also.
If we believe Barghast: Thyrllan knows that Thyrllan is not killer. Thyrllan also does not smurf Telas and Silanah being partnered killers. This leaves (for Thyrllan), Anthras and Silanah, or Anthras and Telas.
So, in both cases, Anthras appears. Unfortunately, Anthras has not been around. Telas, again does not strike Thyrllan as killer (speculation though), so Anthras and Silanah would be the likelier smurfship.
If we believe Barghast.
But you just told me that you had eliminated Silanah/Anthras. By you not thinking Telas is a killer and what you just said to me you have eliminated every possibility other than Barghy/Kara
In Thyrllan's old partnerships list, yes, that is smurf. However, if Barghast's reveal is real, then that puts a lot of that list in the 'wrong speculation' category, so Thyrllan is now rethinking everything.
#837
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:14 PM
Thyrllan notes that in fact Anthras' speculation of Silanah as joint-killer with Telas on day 3 is actually the main smurf why Thyrllan did not believe Anthras and Silanah were partners, and indeed now again believes that to be true.
So, in fact, that brings us around to Silanah and Telas, or Anthras and Telas. Above Thyrllan has smurfed the Anthras/Telas interaction, now for Silanah-Telas.
So, in fact, that brings us around to Silanah and Telas, or Anthras and Telas. Above Thyrllan has smurfed the Anthras/Telas interaction, now for Silanah-Telas.
#838
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:20 PM
Silanah putting suspicion recently on Telas. Thyrllan also smurfs that there was another post by Silanah where he expressed willingness (only willingness, mind) to vote Telas, but this appears to have been among those posts wiped:
And the Telas vote on Silanah, make of it what you smurf:
Silanah, on 30 August 2011 - 02:55 PM, said:
Ok, what the fuck. Fucking forum, man. Losing posts like this is so irritating.
First...reveals. I found the "healer" code by D'riss pretty convincing. Unless he is scum clever enough to prepare that days in advance, I'm willing to believe D'riss, especially without a counter reveal. Honestly, I figured that if we had a finder, he was already dead, and I guess that's possible for the healer as well, but it would be a huge risk by D'riss or Barghast to bet on that (if they're lying).
Just yesterday Telas was saying how convinced he was by Kara about D'riss, but now he puts Kara on the same level? I find that odd. Kara seems to have changed his mind about D'riss as well, but it's more believable for two reasons - one, the Telas vote counters the claim that Kara is symping Telas (I myself was critical of Kara's supposed willingness to vote Telas); two, Telas doesn't believe D'riss's reveal, which is not only weird but potentially fatal for town. I understand being cautious or even suspicious of D'riss's reveal, but at this point it seems like it's probably true. I would really like Osseric to come back and comment on this though. The longer he's gone the more it hurts us. Barghast's reveal is timely but we have no chance of testing it, probably. Problem is that if he's lying, why is he protecting Kara? This would make more sense if Barghast was symping Kara but if that's true, we should go back to lynching Kara... This needs more thought.
We've been saying this is an M&P game but it has turned out to be anything but that. I'm not willing to discount any potential role possibilities but there are sure a lot out there. If we assume that the reveals are true, we have a number of PI or VPI players pointing the finger at Telas, and so far the only argument in Telas's favor is from Thyr. Although I can't say I suspect Thyr of being a killer, he could be quite the symp - riding every lynch train, causing massive confusion with his handicap... Impossible to know whether Fener or Thyr is a symp but it makes sense to me that the handicapped players would be on different teams. Either way, I'm wary of Thyr.
First...reveals. I found the "healer" code by D'riss pretty convincing. Unless he is scum clever enough to prepare that days in advance, I'm willing to believe D'riss, especially without a counter reveal. Honestly, I figured that if we had a finder, he was already dead, and I guess that's possible for the healer as well, but it would be a huge risk by D'riss or Barghast to bet on that (if they're lying).
Just yesterday Telas was saying how convinced he was by Kara about D'riss, but now he puts Kara on the same level? I find that odd. Kara seems to have changed his mind about D'riss as well, but it's more believable for two reasons - one, the Telas vote counters the claim that Kara is symping Telas (I myself was critical of Kara's supposed willingness to vote Telas); two, Telas doesn't believe D'riss's reveal, which is not only weird but potentially fatal for town. I understand being cautious or even suspicious of D'riss's reveal, but at this point it seems like it's probably true. I would really like Osseric to come back and comment on this though. The longer he's gone the more it hurts us. Barghast's reveal is timely but we have no chance of testing it, probably. Problem is that if he's lying, why is he protecting Kara? This would make more sense if Barghast was symping Kara but if that's true, we should go back to lynching Kara... This needs more thought.
We've been saying this is an M&P game but it has turned out to be anything but that. I'm not willing to discount any potential role possibilities but there are sure a lot out there. If we assume that the reveals are true, we have a number of PI or VPI players pointing the finger at Telas, and so far the only argument in Telas's favor is from Thyr. Although I can't say I suspect Thyr of being a killer, he could be quite the symp - riding every lynch train, causing massive confusion with his handicap... Impossible to know whether Fener or Thyr is a symp but it makes sense to me that the handicapped players would be on different teams. Either way, I'm wary of Thyr.
And the Telas vote on Silanah, make of it what you smurf:
Telas, on 30 August 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:
hold on a sec. so we are going with the idea that there are two guards correct? and we are assuming that on night 3, osseric guards barghast who claims to be a finder (and thus cannot find) and d'riss heals osseric potentially stopping a kill. the next night (night 4) osseric guards barghast again (to confirm whether or not he was a killer), preventing barghast from finding again. that same night, d'riss was guarded by another unknown player, preventing his unnecessary heal on silanah
so the mystery remains, who did the second guard stop on night three. if that guard was townie, could he have stopped the kill, invalidating d'riss' claim?
i just had a thought btw. what if this game is a mirror image? what if there is a scum guard and a townie guard, a scum killer and a townie healer, and a scum finder and townie finder? and then the rest are RI's for town or scum. this arrangement would validate thyr's claims of TS being a finder, would explain why there is only one kill per night, and also explain why there are two guards. town rules the day, scum rules the night. town gets day kills, scum gets night kills
this also makes me think that fener and thyr are a pair of opposites. we have the silenced one and the talkative one. the problem is, we don't know which is which.
so, if our mystery guard is alive, perhaps they can tell us who they guarded on night 3. this would let us know if it really was d'riss who stopped the kill or if it was that other guard.
one other thing that points out: we cannot assume roled players are town. osseric is probably a guard, but for which side? i think, if people really do implicitly trust d'riss to be the healer, that would definitely make d'riss a townie. that leaves TS (who CFed inno, which is odd if he was a finder) and Barghast as the finders, one of whom is scum and one of whom was townie. and thyr and fener were the oddballs, though which one is scum is beyond me.
so that leaves silanah, kara, anthras, and myself, right? kara is spoken for by barghast, so whatever team kara is on, barghast is on as well.
anthras should be mod killed, so that leaves silanah and myself.
for myself, i will argue that i have been consistently confused and straight forward, standing out like a sore thumb. this would be odd for a killer, especially for an entire game (also very difficult to accomplish if I was faking it). ao if you all vote for me, i will take it as a compliment that you think my behavior is a performance worthy of top level scum, the big cheese killer.
silanah, on the otherhand, has been laying low. keeping under the radar except for a gradual increase in posts towards this point in the game. this behavior is not as challenging as faking stupidity. in fact, it is very consistent with the behavior of many scum killers in the past.
now i am roleless inno, which means either anthras or silanah is a guard or killer if my theory is correct. i hate to see the guard go if he is townie, but in the end, as long as the guard and killer both go, town is in a good position, right?
Vote Silanah
so the mystery remains, who did the second guard stop on night three. if that guard was townie, could he have stopped the kill, invalidating d'riss' claim?
i just had a thought btw. what if this game is a mirror image? what if there is a scum guard and a townie guard, a scum killer and a townie healer, and a scum finder and townie finder? and then the rest are RI's for town or scum. this arrangement would validate thyr's claims of TS being a finder, would explain why there is only one kill per night, and also explain why there are two guards. town rules the day, scum rules the night. town gets day kills, scum gets night kills
this also makes me think that fener and thyr are a pair of opposites. we have the silenced one and the talkative one. the problem is, we don't know which is which.
so, if our mystery guard is alive, perhaps they can tell us who they guarded on night 3. this would let us know if it really was d'riss who stopped the kill or if it was that other guard.
one other thing that points out: we cannot assume roled players are town. osseric is probably a guard, but for which side? i think, if people really do implicitly trust d'riss to be the healer, that would definitely make d'riss a townie. that leaves TS (who CFed inno, which is odd if he was a finder) and Barghast as the finders, one of whom is scum and one of whom was townie. and thyr and fener were the oddballs, though which one is scum is beyond me.
so that leaves silanah, kara, anthras, and myself, right? kara is spoken for by barghast, so whatever team kara is on, barghast is on as well.
anthras should be mod killed, so that leaves silanah and myself.
for myself, i will argue that i have been consistently confused and straight forward, standing out like a sore thumb. this would be odd for a killer, especially for an entire game (also very difficult to accomplish if I was faking it). ao if you all vote for me, i will take it as a compliment that you think my behavior is a performance worthy of top level scum, the big cheese killer.
silanah, on the otherhand, has been laying low. keeping under the radar except for a gradual increase in posts towards this point in the game. this behavior is not as challenging as faking stupidity. in fact, it is very consistent with the behavior of many scum killers in the past.
now i am roleless inno, which means either anthras or silanah is a guard or killer if my theory is correct. i hate to see the guard go if he is townie, but in the end, as long as the guard and killer both go, town is in a good position, right?
Vote Silanah
#839
Barghast
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:25 PM
Thyrllan, on 30 August 2011 - 08:01 PM, said:
Thyrllan, on 30 August 2011 - 07:58 PM, said:
D, on 30 August 2011 - 07:40 PM, said:
Anthras, on 17 August 2011 - 05:47 PM, said:
Galain nekkid!!
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
What I am particularly suspicious though, is behavior like D'riss and Silanah.
Both arrive after some smack-down has been laid --- Then D'riss asks the same question I did three posts above his (coupled with some other fruity stuff) then Silanah seems to ignore the rest of the votes going on, instead focusing on the RP side of people (which btw was only for like a couple posts out there) - and then both go MIA once more.
Skimping is a scum privilege or a bad-played townie , and I'd rather without any of these, tbh.
I would submit this quote, on Day 1 as evidence that Silanah and Anthras aren't paired.
That is the same reason why Thyrllan initially ruled out Silanah and Anthras as paired killers in his large partners post of so smurf ago.
This is, of smurf, what Karatallid would term distancing
Since there is a 13 day interval in real time between then and now, such suspicions look more condemning with our mindset of today then that of nearly two weeks ago. When the stakes rise, clashes become more and more defining, imho. My cards are on the table, all that bears doing now is waiting for Telas and Silanah to make their defenses, so you guys can judge what's the likelier story - theirs or mine, and a solution of the Anthras issue may also influence stuff.
@ Osseric: regarding my timing and when I'm on: we (nearly) share timezones. That's one simple, logical explanation. Secondly, I've neglected my job a bit more, it was that or being lynched and I have too much pride to go down like a sucker especially when roled, so I made work suffer. Not the smartest of decisions but mafia is a bit of an addiction and I felt as finder I had an obligation to not throw the towel. That's two. Finally, unlike week 1, I'm now also logging in in the evening hours where I didn't (or not to current extent) before - at the sacrifice of my leisure time. Blame Thyr, I've rather enjoyed the sparring I've done with him, though
.
#840
Thyrllan
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Posted 30 August 2011 - 08:31 PM
Barghast, on 30 August 2011 - 08:25 PM, said:
Blame Thyr, I've rather enjoyed the sparring I've done with him, though .
.Thyrllan notes that everysmurf appears to have been hot for Thyrllan at one point or another. Thyrllan is unsure what it is about Thyrllan - other than his radiant smurfiness - which should make this so.
