[Grief]

Vote night

Dunno if ans is set yet, so whoever is on, don't put last vote till it's confirmed.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 10. 26 hours and 27 minutes remaining
7 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail, Vengeance

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

3 Votes for Night ( Gust Hubb, Vengeance, Grief )

Players not voted: ansible, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail

[ansible]

Alright, I just put in a find on Venge. Tatts has his provisional on GH, he said. 50/50 chance we're about to see some FK action... hopefully not, though.

Vote night

[ansible]

Also, good job waiting on me because I was not set yet.

[HiddenOne]

I'm back, I'll be around a little bit

Looks like its night, waiting on P-S

[HiddenOne]

Grief - any thoughts to share?

I fear there's a fox in the henhouse, somehow.

[Path-Shaper]

End of Day 10, from voting Night, blah blah blah...

[Path-Shaper]

Meng Huo had left the Yan camp appearing to head southward, but he doubled back under cover of night and snuck into the walls of Ling Ling. There he appeared before the local warlord in secret. Liu Xian, prefect of Ling Ling, was not a mighty hero like Yuan Shao or Zhang Lu, but had a loyal retinue of talented officers, a well-trained army and an efficient local bureaucracy. Meng Huo, however, knew the warlord's one weakness: his bitter rivalry with Zhao Fan of Gui Yang.

With news of Zhao Fan's army departing Gui Yang and his own slippery tongue, Meng Huo convinced Liu Xian to gather his army and march on Gui Yang while it lay vulnerable. Liu Xian, ambitious and vengeful, summoned his top commanders and the army set forth the next morning. Meng Huo traveled alongside the warlord, feeding his ego and ambitions each day. The King of Kings knew that once the warlord satisfied a small bit of greed in Gui Yang, he'd be unwilling to submit to the growing Yan dynasty.

When the army reached Gui Yang, the city was completely empty. Only a handful of guards patrolled the walls and the gates all stood open. Liu Xian gave the order to storm the city and his army rushed in through the north and west gates in a disorganized rush. Once most of the army had entered, the gates slammed shut and arrows flew from the houses on all sides. Outside the city, Liu Xian and Meng Huo saw the Yan commander He Qi mount the wall and shout "You Ling Ling peasants are no match for our great General Wei Yan! Surrender now or die!"

Liu Xian turned his remaining followers about and fled, but as soon as the forest on each side of the road narrowed, a lone warrior appeared. He bore a polished golden brocade and carried a solid metal halberd weighing half as much as a man. "I am the Heavenly General Wei Yan. All of you surrender, or all of you will die!" he called and then set upon the party. In only a handful of heart beats he had cut his way through to Liu Xian, whom he cut in half. Wei Yan dropped his halberd, lifted a half of Liu Xian in each hand and threw them at each side of the party. The soldiers from Ling Ling immediately threw down their weapons and pleaded for mercy. As Meng Huo tried to sneak into the forest, the soldiers grabbed hold of him and brought him to Wei Yan as a pledge of surrender. The Nanman King was bound and sent to Gu Yong's camp in Wu Xi.



Vengeance is dead. He was Liu Xian and Meng Huo

---

It is Day 11. 27 hours and 59 minutes remaining
6 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail

4 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

Players not voted: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail


---

Gu Yong offered amnesty to the captured Ling Ling soldiers, though their city had now fallen under Yan rule. To the captive King Meng Huo he said "Now that I have caught you once again, are you willing to submit?" "You did not catch me by your own ability. The spineless underlings of Ling Ling turned on me. Your forces would never have caught me if not for that - so why should I submit?" "Why not?" Gu Yong asked."It's the third time!"

Meng Huo lowered his head and kept quiet. "I'll have to let you go again, then," Gu Yong said with a smile. Meng Huo responded, "release me and let me regather my own clansmen for a grand battle with you. If you succeed in capturing me again, I will submit to you and banish forever all thought of resistance." "It will not go easy with you the next time," Gu Yong warned. With that, Gu Yong freed Meng Huo, who bade good-bye and left.

Meng Huo has been captured three out of seven times.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 21 July 2011 - 04:30 AM

[Grief]

Ok, so that leaves us with 3 suspects. Myself, Mentalist, and HO.

[Mentalist]

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:37 AM, said:

Ok, so that leaves us with 3 suspects. Myself, Mentalist, and HO.

how? doesn't the find on you reset with vengy's death?

wait, nvm. my brain is stooopid. and melted/fried/whatever happens when you're in the sun all day and get hit in the head to boot.

i aint MH. so i'm gonna pass out quietly right now. up in about 7.5 hours. i'll vote then.
fwiw, Vengy would probably put his successor as someone who's generally harder to lynch. looking at Grief here.

k, pass out time.

[Mentalist]

also, why is GH not a suspect?

[Grief]

Mentalist, on 21 July 2011 - 03:24 AM, said:

also, why is GH not a suspect?

My mistake.

"Also, I've confirmed this with P-S - when MH dies, it happens at the end of the day, and so does the jump to the next successor. This means that if we lynch MH, and a find is placed on his successor on the same night, the find will kill the successor because he will already be MH when night falls."

I was misremembering this and thinking we didn't have to worry about GH because tattersail had a find on him.

[Grief]

I'm off to sleep. See you all in a while.

[Gust Hubb]

So does this mean one more night of finding or does this mean lynch time? I think since we have two FKs left, perhaps that this the best strategy (go one more night with 1 or 2 finds) and then lynch from the remaining 2-3 player pool. But I haven't read over the statistics closely and it's late here, so someone will need to confirm the best strategy. I'll be around for maybe 15-20 more minutes, otherwise goodnight!

[ansible]

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 03:37 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 21 July 2011 - 03:24 AM, said:

also, why is GH not a suspect?

My mistake.

"Also, I've confirmed this with P-S - when MH dies, it happens at the end of the day, and so does the jump to the next successor. This means that if we lynch MH, and a find is placed on his successor on the same night, the find will kill the successor because he will already be MH when night falls."

I was misremembering this and thinking we didn't have to worry about GH because tattersail had a find on him.

Yeah, I think my wording wasn't too clear. That only applies if MH is lynched, not if he dies at night from an FK, but yeah, you figured it out.

I think another night of a single find would be worthwhile. This way, the odds of finding MH are the same whether we find or lynch, but the penalty for mislynching is higher than finding MH with an FK. Also, regardless of whether or not the FK finds MH or comes back inno, our odds of lynching MH the next day go from 1/4 to 1/3.

[Path-Shaper]

I'm out for the night and I'm fairly busy tomorrow so you might be faced with some waiting periods for resolution... sorry!

[Tattersail_]

Hi guys, i'll be back in an hour, that was a good catch by Ansible. I found him and GH to be innocent. If Venge was clever he could have turned GH into MH couldn't he, nominate him as his successor? Am I right?

[Tattersail_]

GH stop nicking all the pizza as well. Share and share a like please...

[Tattersail_]

i'll catch up in a little while

[Mentalist]

on briefly.
right now, we have 1 in 4 chance of a correct lynch, with 2 FKs to play.

if we go to night, we'll either get lucky with both finds coming up inno, leaving us with 1 in 2 chances for a good lynch, or, wcs, we'll spend an FK and have 1/3 to choose from.
either way is better than making a 1/4 lynch, with 3 in 4 chance of simply narrowing the suspect pool w/o killing MH, imho. we have to get him 4 more times, if we lynch an inno now, we'll be left with 5 players, needing to capture 4 more times.

vote night

seems like most sensible thing to do, numbers-wise