[Tattersail_]

you must be up so very late. 3 for the price of two aint so bad Shin. I may turn to Kurt before the day is done, it depends on what the majority think is the best decision.

[Tattersail_]

we'd end up with 9 for the price of 6 winning odds for town.

[Shinrei]

Tattersail, on 20 July 2011 - 08:29 AM, said:

you must be up so very late. 3 for the price of two aint so bad Shin. I may turn to Kurt before the day is done, it depends on what the majority think is the best decision.

Up late? It's 5:30 pm, about to leave work.

Yeah, it's a fair exchange which is why I'm ok with self voting to make sure the lynch happens. However, I think it sucks that I have to go first since that's an immediate mistake that is avoidable.

[Tattersail_]

if you are innocent Shin, then Kurt and Khel are scum. End of. No complaints. So why pick Kurt over Khel in that position? If you are innocent then it does not matter who is more scummy out of the two scum.

[Tattersail_]

by you indicating that Khel is inno then you are saying that you yourself are scum. What do others think?

[Khellendros]

Tattersail, on 20 July 2011 - 08:01 AM, said:

There are two scum and 3 people uninvestigated by finders. Just a quick one for Ansible, you did clear grief? The posts are coming thick and fast I wanted to make sure. Out of the Three I was going to do a find on Khell or Vengey the other night and decided to put it on Vengey. Khell because he was being so helpful to town and acting or being the most helpful to town. Shin's been around every time he has had a vote placed against him. Over the weekend when he got two votes he was on in a flash. I'm leaning towards Shin. Kurt is also someone who hasn't had much attention, easiest way to lay low would be to have a partner that made a lot of waves like khel which is confusing me a little. Shin seems to be the best suspect out of the three as to be MH. Then it is a toss up between the other two. It's great that we go two down with little damage, 2/3 inno for an exchange of 2 MH.

Vote Shinrei

Wait, I don't understand. Does this mean that you did a find on someone who's already been found inno by ansible, which he told us? Instead of doing a find on me which could have cleared up this whole mess? If so, I despair.


Also, last night I dreamt that there was a player called Galain who we'd all forgotten about

[Tattersail_]

no, I did this before Ansible's reveal.

[Shinrei]

i didnt say kell is innocent. read more carefully please. also, when i chose kurt i hadnt realiyed that it was only between us three. can someone repost the list of the cleared people?

[Khellendros]

Tattersail, on 20 July 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

no, I did this before Ansible's reveal.

Oh yes, you did it after twelve's lynching, I remember now. Sorry, I misread.

[Mentalist]

crap. had some stuff to take care of with parents this morning. that ran right into my designated morning mafia time.
off to work now, won't be back till way later.

[Tattersail_]

10 people left at this stage, wcs we lynch 3. so we'll have 7 people left having killed 2 MH. Other than 2 finders we will have a suspect pool of 5 players for MH, we'd need to FK 2 people here leaving a pool of 3 people with 2 finders and 4 MH dead. Out of them 3 people 2 will be MH. This should be a win for town? If we continue this way, is this right or am i missing something?

[Grief]

Your situation leaves us needing to be correct about who is MH of the 3, because we have to lynch them. It only gives us one lynch as well, because after that they can block a lynch, making it impossible for us to kill 6 times. The lynch has good odds true, but it's still risky.

If you FK no one, we get an extra lynch. 7 players, 2 scum. We can lynch twice out of five suspects. The odds aren't as good though. 1/5 and 1/4 chance. At that stage we can't win, because if we kill MH three times we're down to 2 people, so MH wins.

Not sure what the better route is. I suspect it's something like a mix. I think the finders should find, and we'll play it by ear. If they hit MH twice, we stop and try to lynch to win, the odds are pretty good. However, there's also the chance they'll miss a couple of times and narrow it down, potentially giving us better odds, which is probably our best chance of a win.

[Gust Hubb]

At this point, I think we should agree on a threshold of townie lynches. So if we lynch 2-3 of the suspects, we are down to 7-8 people: 2 FKs, 3-5 non-MH, and 1-3 MH. How many townies do we consider to be too few to get the final third lynch on MH?

I guess the reason I ask is if we eliminate these three suspects, future days should go a little faster since the period of lynchless FK work will not need as long to clear people. Originally, I was against random lynching mainly because I didn't want to hit a finder, but now that we know our finders, I would definitely be up to winnowing down the suspect pool while we have the chance before we are all suspects again.

And why are we still stuck on two active MHs?

[Grief]

Not really relevant at this point though, since our strategy is basically try to lycnh the 2 scum of those three for the next while. No finder shenanigans or maths involved.

[Gust Hubb]

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

Your situation leaves us needing to be correct about who is MH of the 3, because we have to lynch them. It only gives us one lynch as well, because after that they can block a lynch, making it impossible for us to kill 6 times. The lynch has good odds true, but it's still risky.

If you FK no one, we get an extra lynch. 7 players, 2 scum. We can lynch twice out of five suspects. The odds aren't as good though. 1/5 and 1/4 chance. At that stage we can't win, because if we kill MH three times we're down to 2 people, so MH wins.

Not sure what the better route is. I suspect it's something like a mix. I think the finders should find, and we'll play it by ear. If they hit MH twice, we stop and try to lynch to win, the odds are pretty good. However, there's also the chance they'll miss a couple of times and narrow it down, potentially giving us better odds, which is probably our best chance of a win.

Thanks for finally agreeing with what I've been pushing all game long.

[Grief]

Two active MHs-because the OP suggests this as a minimum.

There may be more scum in the form of symps. From a balance POV that seems a bit unlikely though. If we go down to 8 people now(we don't hit an inno), and 3 are scum they can block a lynch at 6 people. This would give us two lynches to hit MH. Or if we hit an inno now, one. At that stage, if we've missed, our only hope is for a FK in the hope that one of the MHs jumps into the symp, which would give us a lynch.

[Grief]

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 02:14 PM, said:

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

Your situation leaves us needing to be correct about who is MH of the 3, because we have to lynch them. It only gives us one lynch as well, because after that they can block a lynch, making it impossible for us to kill 6 times. The lynch has good odds true, but it's still risky.

If you FK no one, we get an extra lynch. 7 players, 2 scum. We can lynch twice out of five suspects. The odds aren't as good though. 1/5 and 1/4 chance. At that stage we can't win, because if we kill MH three times we're down to 2 people, so MH wins.

Not sure what the better route is. I suspect it's something like a mix. I think the finders should find, and we'll play it by ear. If they hit MH twice, we stop and try to lynch to win, the odds are pretty good. However, there's also the chance they'll miss a couple of times and narrow it down, potentially giving us better odds, which is probably our best chance of a win.

Thanks for finally agreeing with what I've been pushing all game long.

It finally became a viable strategy.

[ansible]

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 02:13 PM, said:

At this point, I think we should agree on a threshold of townie lynches. So if we lynch 2-3 of the suspects, we are down to 7-8 people: 2 FKs, 3-5 non-MH, and 1-3 MH. How many townies do we consider to be too few to get the final third lynch on MH?

I guess the reason I ask is if we eliminate these three suspects, future days should go a little faster since the period of lynchless FK work will not need as long to clear people. Originally, I was against random lynching mainly because I didn't want to hit a finder, but now that we know our finders, I would definitely be up to winnowing down the suspect pool while we have the chance before we are all suspects again.

And why are we still stuck on two active MHs?

Dude, you just wanted to know who the other finder was because you have no patience. No finder would let himself be lynched without revealing, especially in a game like this where there is little downside to it.

[ansible]

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 02:14 PM, said:

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

Your situation leaves us needing to be correct about who is MH of the 3, because we have to lynch them. It only gives us one lynch as well, because after that they can block a lynch, making it impossible for us to kill 6 times. The lynch has good odds true, but it's still risky.

If you FK no one, we get an extra lynch. 7 players, 2 scum. We can lynch twice out of five suspects. The odds aren't as good though. 1/5 and 1/4 chance. At that stage we can't win, because if we kill MH three times we're down to 2 people, so MH wins.

Not sure what the better route is. I suspect it's something like a mix. I think the finders should find, and we'll play it by ear. If they hit MH twice, we stop and try to lynch to win, the odds are pretty good. However, there's also the chance they'll miss a couple of times and narrow it down, potentially giving us better odds, which is probably our best chance of a win.

Thanks for finally agreeing with what I've been pushing all game long.

Yeah...not sure how you can say this when you were voting night for three fucking days.

[ansible]

I agree that the best option is to lynch from this pool of 3 people till we hit MH twice. If we're lucky, we won't waste another inno lynch. Regardless, it's an acceptable loss if we do. No way around it.