[Grief]

Khellendros, on 19 July 2011 - 11:47 PM, said:

Right - and I'm saying that if you came across the rebel you'd just get his rebel identity back. Only the single-identity MH is identified as such, which is what the rebel becomes once the original is killed.

The OP says absolutely nothing about the rebel becoming the original, just that the successor rebels.

[Shinrei]

Thanks for waiting guys.

I think Grief is right and my prior speculation is wrong, I think the FK's can find the successor as well as teh original MH.

He can claim it's omgus, but Kurt's "sure as hell not voting for myself" and then immediatly voting me seems to be an attempt to keep the lynch momentum going and keep it away from himself. Of course a town inno doesn't want to be lynched, but it's much more scum like to try to pre-empt a lynch train from forming on oneself.

[Khellendros]

I suppose that means that Shin believes Kurt and I are scum.

Grief believes myself and Shin are scum, and all of a sudden Kurt is out of the picture.

I believe only Kurt is scum out of us three. Kurt being the original lynch plan, and having been suspected on and off throughout the game thus far, I'm sticking with that.

[Grief]

Khellendros, on 19 July 2011 - 11:48 PM, said:

Grief, on 19 July 2011 - 11:44 PM, said:

"this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo"
"At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him"

It seems stupid that the finders, who can "find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo" and kill that person if they are, would not be able to find the person described as "also is Meng Huo".

If they cannot kill the rebel, then the rebel is not in fact Meng Huo, because "If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him". Except the rules clearly state that the rebel is Meng Huo, meaning if they find the rebel then they kill him.

It does seem stupid, I agree. But that's the only thing that makes sense to me. In all honesty, I think it's a pretty messed up sentence that should have been better clarified by P-S.

Not messed up enough to interpret as "there are 2 MH but only one can be found" or "there is only really one MH" imo.

[Khellendros]

I suppose I made a mistake in trying to give my opinion when I was clearly walking into a trap Grief had laid by doing so - which he went into with the preconception that if "someone answers this way, they MUST be on that side". Does it matter that this is the first time that suspicion has fallen my way, unlike my two companions? Nope, blind judgement has been passed and now I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. I should self-vote like Shinrei.

[Grief]

I'm not simply basing my judgement on your reaction, but on the pushing of an idea without basis that would clearly benefit scum in your position.

[Grief]

Which is the same reason I suspect shin more than KM atm-because he was pushing a similar idea.

[Gust Hubb]

Yup, I appreciate you three talking your way to the gallows Kells, but really, if you turn out to be MH, we are going to have to discount everything you say. And if I remember correctly, you were gung-ho for lynching earlier. For now, I agree with the pushing line of reasoning, and I also have an opportunity to be spiteful (what really?! in a game of altless Mafia?! NEVER!) so for now, unless the lynch train jumps the tracks to someone else (at this point, I think it has indeed become a numbers game):
VOTE KHELL

[Gust Hubb]

This time I'm not waiting around for the rest of people to drag things out. Later.

[Khellendros]

Then why didn't you say so when we had Roldom in our circle of suspects as well. Why didn't you push then on the two who thought that way. "Why did you then say I suspect Roldom, and also Kurt. Khell seems to have been pretty sensible so far." I'll tell you why you've changed your tune, it's exactly because of the way you pre-decided how you would take a certain response. Don't go pretending now that this was a slow-burning idea that you've been putting into effect.

[Khellendros]

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 12:08 AM, said:

Yup, I appreciate you three talking your way to the gallows Kells, but really, if you turn out to be MH, we are going to have to discount everything you say. And if I remember correctly, you were gung-ho for lynching earlier. For now, I agree with the pushing line of reasoning, and I also have an opportunity to be spiteful (what really?! in a game of altless Mafia?! NEVER!) so for now, unless the lynch train jumps the tracks to someone else (at this point, I think it has indeed become a numbers game):
VOTE KHELL

In that case, just make sure you don't discount it when I turn out to be inno.

[Khellendros]

If I'm wrong and Grief is right, you'll be lynching two MHs and one inno (me). That is, of course, if you lynch me before the other two, which you seem pretty certain to do.

If I'm right and Grief is wrong, you'll be lynching one MH and two innos. Leaving you only one wrong lynch left, having killed MH just the once.

ansible was talking about the odds earlier, how we have such great odds and we won't waste an FK on it. And if you're wrong, what about those odds when you're another two innos down? That's what I'm saying.

[Grief]

Khellendros, on 20 July 2011 - 12:09 AM, said:

Then why didn't you say so when we had Roldom in our circle of suspects as well. Why didn't you push then on the two who thought that way. "Why did you then say I suspect Roldom, and also Kurt. Khell seems to have been pretty sensible so far." I'll tell you why you've changed your tune, it's exactly because of the way you pre-decided how you would take a certain response. Don't go pretending now that this was a slow-burning idea that you've been putting into effect.

If it had been that slow burning I would have voted shin over it yesterday. It occurred to me that we had 2 MH in the group. Then I saw shins argument for there being only one findable MH as being a bit dodgy, rather than just not being justified in the OP. Then I considered if it was worth posting. Then I decided it was, for reactions sake. Then you reacted by pulling out the same argument as shin, which set off alarm bells.

Since I can quote too:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:08 PM, said:

The finder-killers have a 16.7% chance of finding MH if we don't lynch anyone

This was at the start of the game and shows your initial read that there are 2 findable MH.

The lack of anything to back up the belief that there is one findable MH is what bothers me. Your reasoning given earlier was that you find it unlikely because it gives us something of an advantage in this one situation we have found ourselves in.

[Khellendros]

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 12:31 AM, said:

Khellendros, on 20 July 2011 - 12:09 AM, said:

Then why didn't you say so when we had Roldom in our circle of suspects as well. Why didn't you push then on the two who thought that way. "Why did you then say I suspect Roldom, and also Kurt. Khell seems to have been pretty sensible so far." I'll tell you why you've changed your tune, it's exactly because of the way you pre-decided how you would take a certain response. Don't go pretending now that this was a slow-burning idea that you've been putting into effect.

If it had been that slow burning I would have voted shin over it yesterday. It occurred to me that we had 2 MH in the group. Then I saw shins argument for there being only one findable MH as being a bit dodgy, rather than just not being justified in the OP. Then I considered if it was worth posting. Then I decided it was, for reactions sake. Then you reacted by pulling out the same argument as shin, which set off alarm bells.

Since I can quote too:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:08 PM, said:

The finder-killers have a 16.7% chance of finding MH if we don't lynch anyone

This was at the start of the game and shows your initial read that there are 2 findable MH.

The lack of anything to back up the belief that there is one findable MH is what bothers me. Your reasoning given earlier was that you find it unlikely because it gives us something of an advantage in this one situation we have found ourselves in.

Actually, if you were to read more closely, you'll find that percentage is such because I was under the (now seemingly) erroneous impression that the finders had 3 kills each, rather than sharing them, and has nothing to do with me thinking there are two MHs. I've thought there was only one pretty much from the beginning.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 6. 25 hours and 48 minutes remaining
10 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Shinrei, Tattersail, Vengeance

6 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Shinrei ( Kurt Montandon )
3 Votes for Khellendros ( Grief, ansible, Gust Hubb )
1 Vote for Kurt Montandon ( Khellendros )

Players not voted: HiddenOne, Mentalist, Shinrei, Tattersail, Vengeance

[Path-Shaper]

A clarification I gave out in PM just now, given to you all for your benefit:

"Anyone who (also) is Meng Huo will be found in finds." <-- this statement is true with or without the also.

[Khellendros]

Actually, reading back over it, it's not even to do with that. What you quoted is simply stating that there are two finders with two chances to find MH (because there's two of them, not because there's two MHs), while lynching only gets one shot per turn. That's all that says.

[Khellendros]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 11:58 AM, said:

12 players. One is Meng Huo. Another is his designated successor. Two are finder-killers. The rest are RI.

I assume that if the designated successor is lynched before Meng Huo, then MH selects someone else? Does MH incite someone new to rebel every night, or just one person (their successor)? I assume the latter, as it doesn't say anything about MH continuing to select further people in the OP.

So we have a 1/12 chance of lynching MH. The finder-killers have a 1/6 chance of finding Meng Huo, as there's two of them. So, in that respect, they have a much better chance of finding MH than we do of lynching him. HOWEVER, if we lynch someone, even if they're not MH, that leaves them with 2/11 chance of finding MH, which is even better odds for them. So at this moment I'm more swayed towards lynching than night.

An even earlier post of mine, showing I was convinced from early on that there's one MH.

[Khellendros]

If I interpret what P-S has just posted correctly, then it leads me to believe that I was wrong in thinking there can only be one true MH at any one time. In which case I'm kicking myself that we didn't lynch Shinrei earlier. God I hate self-votes.

[Khellendros]

Hmm, but then why is Kurt voting for Shinrei if he's also scum? I'm suddenly almost eager to be lynched so I can get out of this mindfuck (and also say I told you so to Grief).