'"Everywhere we look we find that ideas … are getting harder to find," a group of researchers from Stanford University and MIT famously concluded [...] Another paper found that "scientific knowledge has been in clear secular decline since the early 1970s," and yet another concluded that "new ideas no longer fuel economic growth the way they once did."
[...] "Papers and Patents Are Becoming Less Disruptive Over Time" [...] "Our study is the first to show that progress is slowing down, not just in one or two places, but across many domains of science and technology," [...]
[...] Across broad landscapes of science and technology, the past is eating the present, progress is plunging, and truly disruptive work is hard to come by. Despite an enormous increase in scientists and papers since the middle of the 20th century, the number of highly disruptive studies each year hasn't increased.
[...] progress has slowed in many fields because scientists are so overwhelmed by the glut of information in their domain that they're reading and riffing on the same limited canon of famous papers. [...] same principle as a weekend couch potato overwhelmed by streaming options who opts to just watch the top-ranked TV show on Netflix. [...]
[...] "If the low-hanging-fruit theory were sufficient, then I think we'd expect to see the oldest fields stagnate most dramatically," [...] "But the fact that the decline in disruption is happening across so many fields of science and technology points to something broader about scientific practice, and the corporatization of science, and the decline of scientific exploration in the last few decades."
[...] As grants have become more competitive, savvy lab directors have strategically aimed for research that seems plausible but not too radical—optimally new rather than totally new, as one researcher put it. This approach may create a surplus of papers that are designed to advance knowledge only a little. [...] the modern emphasis on citations to measure scientific productivity has shifted rewards and behavior toward incremental science and "away from exploratory projects that are more likely to fail, but which are the fuel for future breakthroughs." As attention given to new ideas has decreased, science has stagnated.'
Science Has a Crummy-Paper Problem
Obvious (if not necessarily simple) solutions:
- more funding for disruptive work (and science in general)
- since disruptive ideas may carry greater risk of being (or initially appearing) incorrect,
for hiring and funding also reward brilliant work that, after further investigation, turns out to be incorrect, but demonstrates the ability to generate new ideas that can be explored
- keep entrenched dogmas from suppressing paradigm-shifting ideas by providing institutional support, hiring, funding for prestigious journals specializing in paradigm shifts, etc.
- of course, AI (Skynet will solve humanity! ... well, we can pray (to the Basilisk?... for the Matrix (it may be the straightest path-way...)))
This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 January 2023 - 02:38 PM