[Ceda Cicero]

Actually, despite the subject line, this isn't meant to be a post that's meant to kick into gear the skepticism and cynicism about delays around tWoW and DoS, even though I really do think that this is basically the elephant in the room amid all the fanfare around the TV series/aDwD's release. Rather, I have a more practical question.

GRRM announced on his blog that the DwD tour would be truncated (comparatively speaking) as he "has a lot of work to do." Of course it's anyone guess what he means when he says "work" and it almost certainly isn't a reference to cranking out tWoW in earnest at this point. Still, it got me wondering: how much, if at all, do you think the TV series will impact GRRM's writing pace on the final two volumes? My gut is not at all. If the guy's proven one thing, it's that he'll take his time no matter what. Still, let's just speak hypothetically for a moment and entertain a legion of "ifs." Four episodes in and GoT's is, on the whole, meeting and/or exceeding expectations of reception and ratings virtually across the board. Let's say it continues to snowball and by season 2 is even more of a monster hit for HBO than it is now (again, lots of "ifs") and manages to secure considerable longevity.

My question is, if (and I recognize this is a fairly big if) we did come to a 'convergence' in which HBO really wants to proceed with, say, a season 5, 6, or 7 but can't because of delays in publication on GRRM's end, would pressure from HBO be any kind of significant factor in forcing him to write faster? If so, I for one would have mixed feelings, but most of them would be negative, particularly if aDwD's is a high quality installment.

[Cobbles]

Ceda Cicero, on 09 May 2011 - 10:07 PM, said:

Actually, despite the subject line, this isn't meant to be a post that's meant to kick into gear the skepticism and cynicism about delays around tWoW and DoS, even though I really do think that this is basically the elephant in the room amid all the fanfare around the TV series/aDwD's release. Rather, I have a more practical question.

GRRM announced on his blog that the DwD tour would be truncated (comparatively speaking) as he "has a lot of work to do." Of course it's anyone guess what he means when he says "work" and it almost certainly isn't a reference to cranking out tWoW in earnest at this point. Still, it got me wondering: how much, if at all, do you think the TV series will impact GRRM's writing pace on the final two volumes? My gut is not at all. If the guy's proven one thing, it's that he'll take his time no matter what. Still, let's just speak hypothetically for a moment and entertain a legion of "ifs." Four episodes in and GoT's is, on the whole, meeting and/or exceeding expectations of reception and ratings virtually across the board. Let's say it continues to snowball and by season 2 is even more of a monster hit for HBO than it is now (again, lots of "ifs") and manages to secure considerable longevity.

My question is, if (and I recognize this is a fairly big if) we did come to a 'convergence' in which HBO really wants to proceed with, say, a season 5, 6, or 7 but can't because of delays in publication on GRRM's end, would pressure from HBO be any kind of significant factor in forcing him to write faster? If so, I for one would have mixed feelings, but most of them would be negative, particularly if aDwD's is a high quality installment.

As you said, it's a whole long list of ifs. My first thought is that including book 3, the series could (and should) be fairly close to the books. If it is still going strong at that point, and if there's no sign of anything beyond the Dance with dragons, the screenwriters might be looking at writing their own conclusion which might or might not take elements from Feast and Dance. Now, that's another variable, but it is one which at least will be clear soon. What will happen in Dance? If it continues along the lines of Feast, then that will obviously be a problem. If it is more like 'Storm of Swords', you have at least one (or two when merged with the better parts of Feast) extra seasons to go with.

As I've said before, I think there are big structural problems with the whole series. First, it still doesn't hang very well together. Dany is very isolated, and even a few characters coming her way isn't enough to tie her story in with the rest. At some point, she will have to cross the sea to Westeros. If it happens in Dance, it will still be very late (a possible season 5 of the series?). If it doesn't happen in Dance, the series might be unsalvageable. Next is the focus of the story. It started out as a story of the Stark children with the iconic chapter of finding the direwolf pups. That focus has shifted so much by AFFC that most of the Stark children almost seem irrelevant, or written into some kind of 'training sequence' situations which should take them considerable time to complete. Viewers might leave the series when their favorite characters disappear or get marginalized. I might think the effect could be amplified when it's children characters. Again, unless those children make a great return to the scene in Dance, I think the series might be unsalvageable.

To be honest, I don't think much thought has been devoted (yet) to this problem, but since season 2 is a go, I think it might creep up sooner than later. With the publication of Dance it will also be easier to judge at which point departures from the book might become necessary. If necessary, I'm sure there's plenty of talented screenwriters which could pull Westeros, the Wall, and Dany neatly together as early as by the end of season 3.

This post has been edited by Cobbles: 09 May 2011 - 10:52 PM

[acesn8s]

The last few books should come rather quickly, as by the end of the series there will only be a few view point characters left alive!

[Abyss]

acesn8s, on 10 May 2011 - 12:05 PM, said:

The last few books should come rather quickly, as by the end of the series there will only be a few view point characters left alive!

Ha!
But GRRM adds new viewpoint characters all the time so that's not really a factor.

Realistically assuming HBO manages a season per year, which is by no means certain (ROME needed three years for two seasons, SOPRANOS needed eight years for six), we're looking at 2015 before the tv series completes DwD (assuming the series goes that long and/or that the producers actually stick with one season for book, since there's a chunk of material that could be chopped out with no major loss...).

Now if GRRM is running true to form we're likely only getting WINDS by 2015, so a disconnect is likely between tv the books at that point, tho i wouldn't be surpirsed if HBO waited for him to finish the last book, assuming book 7 IS the last book.

But realistically i'd be shocked if the time is anything less that 2-3 years between each of the books following DwD.

If we write the delay between STORM and FEAST and again between FEAST and DANCES of to circumstances, i still don't expect GRRM to up his pace to SE's level.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 10 May 2011 - 03:23 PM, said:

acesn8s, on 10 May 2011 - 12:05 PM, said:

The last few books should come rather quickly, as by the end of the series there will only be a few view point characters left alive!

Ha!
But GRRM adds new viewpoint characters all the time so that's not really a factor.

Realistically assuming HBO manages a season per year, which is by no means certain (ROME needed three years for two seasons, SOPRANOS needed eight years for six), we're looking at 2015 before the tv series completes DwD (assuming the series goes that long and/or that the producers actually stick with one season for book, since there's a chunk of material that could be chopped out with no major loss...).

Now if GRRM is running true to form we're likely only getting WINDS by 2015, so a disconnect is likely between tv the books at that point, tho i wouldn't be surpirsed if HBO waited for him to finish the last book, assuming book 7 IS the last book.

But realistically i'd be shocked if the time is anything less that 2-3 years between each of the books following DwD.

If we write the delay between STORM and FEAST and again between FEAST and DANCES of to circumstances, i still don't expect GRRM to up his pace to SE's level.

Benioff and the producers already stated that IF they go to a third season they'd like to split up book 3 into two ten episode seasons cliffhanger-ing around the Red Wedding. Which gives Martin at least one more year...

[Cobbles]

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2011 - 03:30 PM, said:

Benioff and the producers already stated that IF they go to a third season they'd like to split up book 3 into two ten episode seasons cliffhanger-ing around the Red Wedding. Which gives Martin at least one more year...

Would that imply that if there's a third season, there'll also be a fourth? In other words, will the decision to continue be made 'one book at a time' or 'one season at a time'. My feeling is the latter, but what you write implies the former.

[QuickTidal]

Cobbles, on 10 May 2011 - 07:50 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2011 - 03:30 PM, said:

Benioff and the producers already stated that IF they go to a third season they'd like to split up book 3 into two ten episode seasons cliffhanger-ing around the Red Wedding. Which gives Martin at least one more year...

Would that imply that if there's a third season, there'll also be a fourth? In other words, will the decision to continue be made 'one book at a time' or 'one season at a time'. My feeling is the latter, but what you write implies the former.

I think it will all depend on how Season 2 goes down with viewers.

[McLovin]

I'd like to think GRRM went ahead with the HBO series because he knew once he got past ADWD it would be downhill to the finish and he will deliver the remaining books in 2012 and 2013, boom, boom.

But we know that's crap.

With 5 large volumes of material though, HBO could drag this out for at least 7 seasons before needing new material.

Of course, what're the odds it'll last 7 seasons? Or even 5? I'm setting the over/under at 3.

Not that GRRM cares, because he'll be well paid before it goes off the air. And when it does, all those viewers will be waiting to snap up the final books. A good business move for him.

And, if he ever decides to do some sort of WILD CARDS TV show, he has this recent TV series to point to. WILD CARDS might actually have a shot at network TV (more audience, more $$$) if he pushed it.

[QuickTidal]

McLovin, on 10 May 2011 - 08:32 PM, said:

Not that GRRM cares, because he'll be well paid before it goes off the air. And when it does, all those viewers will be waiting to snap up the final books. A good business move for him.

This is true...even if the show only lasts 2 seasons, those who have picked it up as a story but haven't read the books will likely do so after...so in every way Martin's fanbase/army grows. Good business for him indeed.

[End of Disc One]

I think GRRM has lost his momentum and he probably won't get it back. I also expect to gradually see more and more changes in the show as it goes on, and by the time it's up to AFfC/ADwD there will be significant differences. I think D&D would probably continue the show on their own, assuming the show is still alive.

[Cobbles]

End of Disc One, on 10 May 2011 - 09:10 PM, said:

I think GRRM has lost his momentum and he probably won't get it back. I also expect to gradually see more and more changes in the show as it goes on, and by the time it's up to AFfC/ADwD there will be significant differences. I think D&D would probably continue the show on their own, assuming the show is still alive.

This pretty much.

The momentum is gone. It is so evident that the five year gap simply has to happen. The children are too young. At the end of 'Storm' the children (at least Arya and Bran and maybe to some degree Sansa) are supposedly in a learning situation which should realistically take them more than a few month. Rickon, I don't think can play any role whatsoever until he ages at least 5 years. Dany has had an exceedingly fast development, but again, at the end of 'Storm' she had decided to settle down (for now) in whatsitcalled. It was a great setup for 'the gap'.

At some point, it seems that GRRM thought that some stories from 'the gap' had to be told as they happened, and not in retrospect. Personally, I don't see this in 'Feast', maybe it becomes clearer in 'Dance', but that's beside the point anyway. Now, what I read is that 'the gap' is completely off the table. How that is supposed to work with respect of the Stark children is a mystery to me. Anyway, instead of 'the gap' we get two large volumes, Feast and Dance. Are they only filled with stuff which GRRM thought (at one point) to tell in retrospect? Or does he move stuff which he intended to happen after 'the gap' to 'Dance'? Or did the story 'grow with the telling' as JRRT once famously said? In either case, GRRM might be looking at a mess of a story which is hard if not impossible to detangle. I am not much surprised that he has difficulty continuing. I can imagine he's applying patches here and there to make sense of timelines, story lines, etc. which lead to unintended consequences which he then has to patch up with something else etc. He might just give up in the end. He'll be very wealthy no matter what.

[Werthead]

Benioff and Weiss have an outline of the rest of the series and have basically said if they overtake GRRM they can use that to map out their own conclusion. One of the things they said is that because they have this outline, they know which characters to introduce and which not to:

SPOILERS for the TV series but not the books (and only for this week's episode):

Spoiler

some have pointed out that since the Blackfish has likely been cut altogether, that indicates that he may not be vitally important in the books either.

Cobbles, on 10 May 2011 - 10:08 PM, said:

Anyway, instead of 'the gap' we get two large volumes, Feast and Dance. Are they only filled with stuff which GRRM thought (at one point) to tell in retrospect? Or does he move stuff which he intended to happen after 'the gap' to 'Dance'? Or did the story 'grow with the telling' as JRRT once famously said? In either case, GRRM might be looking at a mess of a story which is hard if not impossible to detangle. I am not much surprised that he has difficulty continuing. I can imagine he's applying patches here and there to make sense of timelines, story lines, etc. which lead to unintended consequences which he then has to patch up with something else etc. He might just give up in the end. He'll be very wealthy no matter what.

'The Gap' basically worked for the AFFC characters but not for the ADWD ones (in GRRM's view, anyway). So the original plan, when AFFC was supposed to contain everyone's storylines, was to write new, 'filler' material for the ADWD characters to do to keep them busy (a bit like Rand's totally pointless side-mission to Far Madding in Winter's Heart, which only served to give him something to do whilst Jordan tried to bring Perrin and Mat's stories up to synch with his). This didn't really engage GRRM, and by the time he'd gotten to 1,600 MS pages for the original AFFC he really hadn't written much for Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Davos, Bran etc. Whether he consciously knew he was falling into the Jordan trap I don't know, but I do think that he saw the splitting of AFFC as an opportunity to cut back on this 'filler' material for the other characters and just have them in ADWD getting on with what they were going to be doing in the next book anyway (which is why ADWD is still called ADWD, not AFFC Part II). This introduced some huge timeline problems, though, as he had to spread the same material over a longer period of time to accomodate what's going on back in Westeros in ADWD.

In theory - and when has that ever worked out in this series? - that means ADWD should end with everything back to the way it should have been at this point in the original plan for the series with two books to go, sans the five-year gap (though he may have gotten 1-2 years out of it). That means hopefully he'll be back on track with a roadmap to the final scene and can get on with it. Whether that happens or not, or it does but with additional problems, remains to be seen.

[Cobbles]

Werthead, on 11 May 2011 - 11:05 AM, said:

'The Gap' basically worked for the AFFC characters but not for the ADWD ones (in GRRM's view, anyway). So the original plan, when AFFC was supposed to contain everyone's storylines, was to write new, 'filler' material for the ADWD characters to do to keep them busy... This didn't really engage GRRM, and by the time he'd gotten to 1,600 MS pages for the original AFFC he really hadn't written much for Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Davos, Bran etc. Whether he consciously knew he was falling into the Jordan trap I don't know, but I do think that he saw the splitting of AFFC as an opportunity to cut back on this 'filler' material for the other characters and just have them in ADWD getting on with what they were going to be doing in the next book anyway (which is why ADWD is still called ADWD, not AFFC Part II). This introduced some huge timeline problems, though, as he had to spread the same material over a longer period of time to accomodate what's going on back in Westeros in ADWD.

In theory - and when has that ever worked out in this series? - that means ADWD should end with everything back to the way it should have been at this point in the original plan for the series with two books to go, sans the five-year gap (though he may have gotten 1-2 years out of it). That means hopefully he'll be back on track with a roadmap to the final scene and can get on with it. Whether that happens or not, or it does but with additional problems, remains to be seen.

I don't know whether I understand that correctly.

So what you're saying is that he wrote and then scrapped tons of stuff for Dany, Tyrion, Bran, Davos (the 'Dance' characters) because he thought it filler? And the upcoming 'Dance' does not contain this filler, but important stuff which had to happen anyway?

I'm still not sure how that relates to 'the gap' (by which I mean the old 5 year gap after 'Storm' which is no more). For instance, what was the stuff which needed to be told 'on screen' as opposed to 'in retrospect'? The 'Feast' stuff? And the stuff which is in the 'Dance' is stuff which was supposed to be written anyway, but now has moved up in time because the 5 year gap is no more?

[McLovin]

Do the answers to those questions really matter? GRRM had an idea, it sucked, so he had to perform a massive re-write that took years.

You're getting book 5 on July 12, that's ultimately what matters.

[Mentalist]

I think that if the series goes beyond ASOS, the next seasons will have the stuff in AFFC and ADWD happening simultaneously.

[Cobbles]

McLovin, on 12 May 2011 - 07:14 PM, said:

Do the answers to those questions really matter? GRRM had an idea, it sucked, so he had to perform a massive re-write that took years.

You're getting book 5 on July 12, that's ultimately what matters.

I asked them so they matter to me.

[QuickTidal]

Cobbles, on 12 May 2011 - 05:40 PM, said:

Werthead, on 11 May 2011 - 11:05 AM, said:

'The Gap' basically worked for the AFFC characters but not for the ADWD ones (in GRRM's view, anyway). So the original plan, when AFFC was supposed to contain everyone's storylines, was to write new, 'filler' material for the ADWD characters to do to keep them busy... This didn't really engage GRRM, and by the time he'd gotten to 1,600 MS pages for the original AFFC he really hadn't written much for Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Davos, Bran etc. Whether he consciously knew he was falling into the Jordan trap I don't know, but I do think that he saw the splitting of AFFC as an opportunity to cut back on this 'filler' material for the other characters and just have them in ADWD getting on with what they were going to be doing in the next book anyway (which is why ADWD is still called ADWD, not AFFC Part II). This introduced some huge timeline problems, though, as he had to spread the same material over a longer period of time to accomodate what's going on back in Westeros in ADWD.

In theory - and when has that ever worked out in this series? - that means ADWD should end with everything back to the way it should have been at this point in the original plan for the series with two books to go, sans the five-year gap (though he may have gotten 1-2 years out of it). That means hopefully he'll be back on track with a roadmap to the final scene and can get on with it. Whether that happens or not, or it does but with additional problems, remains to be seen.

I don't know whether I understand that correctly.

So what you're saying is that he wrote and then scrapped tons of stuff for Dany, Tyrion, Bran, Davos (the 'Dance' characters) because he thought it filler? And the upcoming 'Dance' does not contain this filler, but important stuff which had to happen anyway?

I'm still not sure how that relates to 'the gap' (by which I mean the old 5 year gap after 'Storm' which is no more). For instance, what was the stuff which needed to be told 'on screen' as opposed to 'in retrospect'? The 'Feast' stuff? And the stuff which is in the 'Dance' is stuff which was supposed to be written anyway, but now has moved up in time because the 5 year gap is no more?

Yeah, it doesn't quite all fit. That's one of the reasons I wish to wait to read the book before making any judgements, cause lets face some facts...Martin has never been the best at giving us the truth...instead he usually gave us his dream for the truth....(To the note on the last page of the AFFC hardcover stating that ADWD mostly written and was merely a year away: I am looking at you!!)...

so I don't care what anyone says, you can't take Martin at his word about anything...as evidenced by the fact that when he finished the manuscript, tons of fans STILL didn't believe it. That's how ingrained in us these "dreams of truths" are.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 12 May 2011 - 08:02 PM

[Werthead]

Cobbles, on 12 May 2011 - 05:40 PM, said:

I don't know whether I understand that correctly.

So what you're saying is that he wrote and then scrapped tons of stuff for Dany, Tyrion, Bran, Davos (the 'Dance' characters) because he thought it filler? And the upcoming 'Dance' does not contain this filler, but important stuff which had to happen anyway?

I'm still not sure how that relates to 'the gap' (by which I mean the old 5 year gap after 'Storm' which is no more). For instance, what was the stuff which needed to be told 'on screen' as opposed to 'in retrospect'? The 'Feast' stuff? And the stuff which is in the 'Dance' is stuff which was supposed to be written anyway, but now has moved up in time because the 5 year gap is no more?

Fair enough. It is an extremely confusing situation.

To have another run at it, GRRM started writing 'the ASoIaF book after A STORM OF SWORDS' in 2000 with the intention of it starting 5 years after ASoS. He ran into problems specifically with regards to the Iron Islands (I believe it was to do with after five years the Iron Throne still hadn't smashed the ironborn rebellion), Dorne (he didn't believe that Doran Martell would wait five years before seeking vengeance for Elia and Oberyn's deaths by sending Quentyn to Daenerys) and Brienne (it seemed implausible Brienne could wander Westeros for five years and not find any trace of Arya or Sansa). These were all stories that he felt 'needed to be told'.

So he scrapped the material he had at that time and started over with AFFC from scratch. The stories that 'needed to be told' - Dorne, the Iron Islands and Brienne - were the ones he focused on and completed. Other characters factored into that: Sansa, Cersei, Jaime etc. Other characters - Tyrion, Dany, Davos, Bran, Tyrion etc - didn't because they didn't have 'stories that needed to be told' from the gap period. They were ready to move into the next phase of the series. GRRM didn't write and then burn tons of material for them, he rather didn't write that much 'interim' materal for them in the first place (basically the original version of the 500 MS pages he had left over from AFFC, which is a lot overall but not so much per-character when divided between a dozen POV characters).

To come at it from another, more concise angle, A FEAST FOR CROWS was not split into two books, A FEAST FOR CROWS and A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, containing all the material planned for the pre-split A FEAST FOR CROWS. Instead, the material left-over from A FEAST FOR CROWS has been integrated into the book that was supposed to follow on from the pre-split AFFC anyway. That's why the introduction of AFFC only increased the count to 7 books, not 8. Or for those that say AFFC is 'half a book', ADWD should be 'a book and a half' to make up for it.

Of course, GRRM could have completely ballsed it up (ADWD certainly has the potential to be a horrendous Frankenstein's monster of confused storylines and timelines). This is something we won't know until the thing is out (two months from today).

[Tsundoku]

To ask a semi-serious question: is it just my limited experience, or is the whole Brienne thing just the longest cliffhanger EVER??? Are there similar or even bigger cliffhangers with other series that had massive gaps in publishing times?

I mean, there's only so long I can stay here on the edge of my seat ...

This post has been edited by Sombra: 13 May 2011 - 08:37 AM

[D'iversify]

Mentalist, on 12 May 2011 - 07:35 PM, said:

I think that if the series goes beyond ASOS, the next seasons will have the stuff in AFFC and ADWD happening simultaneously.

Agree that's likely.

Extremely interested to see whether ADWD sorts out 'gap'. Given its 1600+ pages, there'll hopefully be space.