[Edrigan]

alt146, on 12 July 2010 - 08:22 PM, said:

I think tomorrow will be the best day to lynch twice. Once lynch today plus a kill leaves us with 8, two lynches and a kill Is then 5, which is the best number to go into D-day with a worst case scenario. Day three could work, but then we have to absolutely sure we hit a killer one of the two times. Having to make a decision like that with less cfs than we could have had doesn't seem like the best plan though. We could also lynch twice today,but considering the time constraints and the lack of info it seems a bit foolhardy. Tomorrow we have a bit more info and a slightly smaller suspect pool.

I'm off to bed, will definitely be back with tons of time to vote tomorrow.

We can multi-lynch.
But we don't -have to- if we don't want to.

It can be our shaved knuckle so to speak. We can treat this like a normal single lynch day game, and arrive with 6 people on Day 3, and use it, or we can excercise the right to multi-lynch on Day 2, and leave us with a WCS of 3 town vs 2 scum on day 3, and hope that the 3 remaining innos will be able to analyse votes on the 2 lynches and perhaps add some intel from the night kill, and come up to a conclusion about who the killers are.

It all depends on if we want to rely on a 3v2 D-day lynch twice, or a 4v2 lynch twice Day. The first one doesn't leave any margin for error, while the second one gives us more room to breathe as we only need to nail at least 1 scum.

Why didn't you bother mentioning that as well, Alt? Because I do not believe it didn't cross your mind.
Got something to hide?

IGMEOU.



EDIT: I'm an idiot, he does consider it, on the edges though. Guess my eyes are failing me. Off to bed.Still I'm not 'sold' on lynching twice on Day 2. It might benefit us, it might not. Its a risky move which can bite us in the ass, as easy as make our lives easier. We could either play it 'safe' and get through a normal Day 1 and Day 2 senario, and have more posts on the thread at day 3 and more reasonings and arguements - or we can go 'guns blazin' and set the place on fire from the get go.I believe being cautious a bit will not hurt us at all- especially since this place is notorious for building trains and lynches in less than half an hour time.

This post has been edited by Edrigan: 12 July 2010 - 09:08 PM

[Grief]

Vengeance, on 12 July 2010 - 08:40 PM, said:

My reasoning is thus. He is Mental thus scum who should be lynched.

Vote Mentalist

If we lynch him before he can speak, he doesn't get to go "I told you so" in spoilers either.

This is definetely worth considering.

[Tapper]

Off to bed, have fun. There's something like 14 hours and 50 minutes left iirc.

also, 1 vote Mentalist (Vengeance).


I get to edit, cause I R a mod.

This post has been edited by Tapper: 12 July 2010 - 09:51 PM

[Peanutbutta]

Vengeance, on 12 July 2010 - 06:25 PM, said:

Ok I am caught up. I am against lynching mulipules on day one unless we have really good suspects. The simple reason is that we have a small pool of players and eliminating several of them on day one could negatively impact the town. The biggest problem is that we won't know if a lynch is a good lynch till the end of the day. If there are paired killers in the game then a couple of lynches well directed and the killers could run the game.

I highly doubt the killers can "run the game" based on a couple of lynches. If anything, the town will lose before the killers win. The one big reason I see to keep the lynching to a minimum today is the possibility of town roles... the more we lynch today, the more likely we are to hit them.

[Peanutbutta]

Edrigan, on 12 July 2010 - 08:59 PM, said:

alt146, on 12 July 2010 - 08:22 PM, said:

I think tomorrow will be the best day to lynch twice. Once lynch today plus a kill leaves us with 8, two lynches and a kill Is then 5, which is the best number to go into D-day with a worst case scenario. Day three could work, but then we have to absolutely sure we hit a killer one of the two times. Having to make a decision like that with less cfs than we could have had doesn't seem like the best plan though. We could also lynch twice today,but considering the time constraints and the lack of info it seems a bit foolhardy. Tomorrow we have a bit more info and a slightly smaller suspect pool.

I'm off to bed, will definitely be back with tons of time to vote tomorrow.

We can multi-lynch.
But we don't -have to- if we don't want to.

It can be our shaved knuckle so to speak. We can treat this like a normal single lynch day game, and arrive with 6 people on Day 3, and use it, or we can excercise the right to multi-lynch on Day 2, and leave us with a WCS of 3 town vs 2 scum on day 3, and hope that the 3 remaining innos will be able to analyse votes on the 2 lynches and perhaps add some intel from the night kill, and come up to a conclusion about who the killers are.

It all depends on if we want to rely on a 3v2 D-day lynch twice, or a 4v2 lynch twice Day. The first one doesn't leave any margin for error, while the second one gives us more room to breathe as we only need to nail at least 1 scum.

Why didn't you bother mentioning that as well, Alt? Because I do not believe it didn't cross your mind.
Got something to hide?

IGMEOU.



EDIT: I'm an idiot, he does consider it, on the edges though. Guess my eyes are failing me. Off to bed.Still I'm not 'sold' on lynching twice on Day 2. It might benefit us, it might not. Its a risky move which can bite us in the ass, as easy as make our lives easier. We could either play it 'safe' and get through a normal Day 1 and Day 2 senario, and have more posts on the thread at day 3 and more reasonings and arguements - or we can go 'guns blazin' and set the place on fire from the get go.I believe being cautious a bit will not hurt us at all- especially since this place is notorious for building trains and lynches in less than half an hour time.

Your logic is wrong, Ed. It doesn't "depend" on relying on 3v2 vs 4v2. Every possible scenario favors 3v2 over 4v2. BOTH are D-Day... in a 4v2 you have the likely luxury of just going to night and having the killers remove a suspect, but it's always going to be someone who was considered innocent so what's the point? 3v2, with no other information, gives you a 40% chance of not outright losing the game, whereas 4v2 drops the probability to 33%.

Any way you put it, it's absolutely beneficial for us to get one day in with two lynches.


Vote Edrigan.

[Grief]

Pros and cons of multi-lynch on day 1.

Pros:
More information going into day 2.
Thus, a good amount of info on day 3.

Cons:
Reasons for voting may be weak, so less useful information.
Only 1 lynch on day 2, and perhaps worse, day 3.

Pros and cons of multi-lynch on day 2.

Pros:
More likely to have better reasons for voting, giving more useful information.
Likely to have more useful information going into day 3.

Cons:
Less information to start day 2 with, due to 1 lynch on day 1.
Only one lynch on day 3.

Pros and cons of multi-lynch on day 3.

Pros:
Breathing space/chance to get it wrong.

Cons:
Less information going into both day 2 and 3, so less to judge on.
Wouldn't know if we'd hit scum with lynch 1, so harder to judge lynch 2(here i'd go for different candidates, rather than 2 suspected partners).

That's my take on it. Might have missed something though.

I think it's best ot multi-lynch on day 2, since I doubt we'll have two strong candidates todaay, I think it gives us the most information.

[The Dude]

Well, as my title states, I am always down for a Mentalist Lynch/death/castration/public humiliation

[Silencer]

Grief, on 12 July 2010 - 05:34 PM, said:

I think it's better to lynch more on day one. Gives more information for the next day. This means more discssion the next day, so overall would give more information.

However, lynching based on the numbers is not a good idea.

It doesn't give information if you're just lynching someone to get up to a certain number. There still needs to be a reason for a lynch, or you can't see who is for/against it, etc.

I would say more lynches is better, but they still need to be for an actual reason. If there aren't good reasons on enough people, that's maybe unfortunate, but lynching for no reason is not a good plan.

Most important thing is just to lynch those who actually appear scummy.

This. Reasons. We so often lack them in games these days. Or they're incredibly contrived. XD

The Dude, on 12 July 2010 - 03:50 PM, said:

Peanutbutta, on 12 July 2010 - 03:42 PM, said:

I'm glad we finally have a game going... even if it is an indecipherable Chinese game replete with MULTILYNCHING. I'm totally for speedlynching every mother fucker who doesn't even post within the next fourish hours (or thereabouts).

Ahhh yes, good to see another left coaster... means I should have someone to talk to ( or in PB's case, listen to) so I don't pull my hair out with boredom.


@Grief and Silencer, I leave my browser open at work for 8+ hours at a time... while it may seem like lurking, 90% of the time I am afk. It's impractical for me to log in and out everytime I check the thread.

Gonna go read the revised start-up thread. Back in a bit.

I also leave my browser open, however we can actually see the last time you were active (a click or a a change of page), so we'll know when you've been afk too. To this effect, I'm thinking Grief and I will just make ourselves visible for the duration of the game. We can see all of you and when you were last on, you can see us and when we were last on. It's only fair. And the rest of you don't know jack about each other as usual.

[Silencer]

Peanutbutta, on 12 July 2010 - 09:59 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 12 July 2010 - 06:25 PM, said:

Ok I am caught up. I am against lynching mulipules on day one unless we have really good suspects. The simple reason is that we have a small pool of players and eliminating several of them on day one could negatively impact the town. The biggest problem is that we won't know if a lynch is a good lynch till the end of the day. If there are paired killers in the game then a couple of lynches well directed and the killers could run the game.

I highly doubt the killers can "run the game" based on a couple of lynches. If anything, the town will lose before the killers win. The one big reason I see to keep the lynching to a minimum today is the possibility of town roles... the more we lynch today, the more likely we are to hit them.

What, you never seen some of the JA's at work around here? Game of 10, if we get down to 6/7 players some guys could steer that quite easily. :S

[Peanutbutta]

Silencer, on 12 July 2010 - 10:16 PM, said:

Peanutbutta, on 12 July 2010 - 09:59 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 12 July 2010 - 06:25 PM, said:

Ok I am caught up. I am against lynching mulipules on day one unless we have really good suspects. The simple reason is that we have a small pool of players and eliminating several of them on day one could negatively impact the town. The biggest problem is that we won't know if a lynch is a good lynch till the end of the day. If there are paired killers in the game then a couple of lynches well directed and the killers could run the game.

I highly doubt the killers can "run the game" based on a couple of lynches. If anything, the town will lose before the killers win. The one big reason I see to keep the lynching to a minimum today is the possibility of town roles... the more we lynch today, the more likely we are to hit them.

What, you never seen some of the JA's at work around here? Game of 10, if we get down to 6/7 players some guys could steer that quite easily. :S

I've seen it... I think he actually won the Man of the Match back in the 80's horror game. But, and this is said with no overt ego, I'm no slouch either... D'rek's everyone-can-recruit game was one of my finest moments, as I helped push the entire game and guided Gem's team to victory, with a little help from The Dude in the end. I conned a player into making a huge mistake in Sixty's Lies of Locke Lamora game and won that one. I know all about steering a game.

But I also know that with 10 altless players, nobody is going to fall for any cheap tricks. If town gets shut out in this game, then it's definitely a town mistake.

[Silencer]

I agree, but it's altless games where everyone falls into vendetta-fighting and ignores the less experienced players, and everyone gets hoodwinked before they even know it! XD
My point is that, while we all may be capable of spotting a ploy, that doesn't mean we won't get railroaded by scum if we make a few bad lynches early on, yes? It doesn't mean we will, either, but dismissing the possibility out of hand is probably not a good move.
I'm curious though, as to Vengy's semi-fearmongering. It strikes me as a strange thing to do so early in the game, rather pushing towards less lynches. His post makes sense, but it was probably unnecessary to state that kind of doom-and-gloom. Iunno.

[Edrigan]

Peanutbutta, on 12 July 2010 - 10:02 PM, said:

Your logic is wrong, Ed. It doesn't "depend" on relying on 3v2 vs 4v2. Every possible scenario favors 3v2 over 4v2. BOTH are D-Day... in a 4v2 you have the likely luxury of just going to night and having the killers remove a suspect, but it's always going to be someone who was considered innocent so what's the point? 3v2, with no other information, gives you a 40% chance of not outright losing the game, whereas 4v2 drops the probability to 33%.

Any way you put it, it's absolutely beneficial for us to get one day in with two lynches.


Vote Edrigan.

Come again?
How's my logic flawed? I simply said I'd personally prefer to have a 4v2 day than a 3v2 day, simply because of more -options- due to having 4 innos instead of 3. More people to discuss cases with, more opinions to draw conclusions from, and the added option of letting a day run by and still go to a 3v2 senario later. The only thing that favors a 3v2 than a 4v2 is if we randomly lynch 2 people, thats all. Apart from that, everything else can and would benefit team town more.

Given the people around, is a double lynch day gonna happen? Most probably.
But I'd rather have this day come later down the road, than earlier.

Why? Because like D'rek said , things have changed in the OP and the sign up thread.

Quote

Roles do not consist of any abilities beyond the usual basic ones. Some might get used in slightly-weird ways, but none of should be shocking. No recruit, FM, jester. No symps. Full CF.

There's no mention of guard/healer/vig in there. So, logic says town has some roled people. The more time they have on their hands, the better they can use their abilities and possibly draw conclusions or come up with ideas, or even draw a lucky night action. The less time, and speedy lynches, we risk taking them out of the game early - and suffer due to that.

[Grief]

Got to take it in context. At the time, people had been discussing lynching a bunch of people on day one, since it works numbers wise.

Now, this struck me as a bit suspect at the time aswell. It'd be a good move by scum to convince the town that they need to lynch x number per day regardless.

[Peanutbutta]

Silencer, on 12 July 2010 - 10:42 PM, said:

I agree, but it's altless games where everyone falls into vendetta-fighting and ignores the less experienced players, and everyone gets hoodwinked before they even know it! XD
My point is that, while we all may be capable of spotting a ploy, that doesn't mean we won't get railroaded by scum if we make a few bad lynches early on, yes? It doesn't mean we will, either, but dismissing the possibility out of hand is probably not a good move.
I'm curious though, as to Vengy's semi-fearmongering. It strikes me as a strange thing to do so early in the game, rather pushing towards less lynches. His post makes sense, but it was probably unnecessary to state that kind of doom-and-gloom. Iunno.

Well I had similar feelings about Vengey, to be honest, but on my second read through of his first post, it bothered me somewhat less. I may have also been turned off because he voted for Ment and I didn't want to look like I was suddenly jumping to anyone's defense. But then Ed had that weird post anyway.

[Peanutbutta]

Edrigan, on 12 July 2010 - 10:42 PM, said:

Peanutbutta, on 12 July 2010 - 10:02 PM, said:

Your logic is wrong, Ed. It doesn't "depend" on relying on 3v2 vs 4v2. Every possible scenario favors 3v2 over 4v2. BOTH are D-Day... in a 4v2 you have the likely luxury of just going to night and having the killers remove a suspect, but it's always going to be someone who was considered innocent so what's the point? 3v2, with no other information, gives you a 40% chance of not outright losing the game, whereas 4v2 drops the probability to 33%.

Any way you put it, it's absolutely beneficial for us to get one day in with two lynches.


Vote Edrigan.

Come again?
How's my logic flawed? I simply said I'd personally prefer to have a 4v2 day than a 3v2 day, simply because of more -options- due to having 4 innos instead of 3. More people to discuss cases with, more opinions to draw conclusions from, and the added option of letting a day run by and still go to a 3v2 senario later. The only thing that favors a 3v2 than a 4v2 is if we randomly lynch 2 people, thats all. Apart from that, everything else can and would benefit team town more.

Given the people around, is a double lynch day gonna happen? Most probably.
But I'd rather have this day come later down the road, than earlier.

Why? Because like D'rek said , things have changed in the OP and the sign up thread.

Quote

Roles do not consist of any abilities beyond the usual basic ones. Some might get used in slightly-weird ways, but none of should be shocking. No recruit, FM, jester. No symps. Full CF.

There's no mention of guard/healer/vig in there. So, logic says town has some roled people. The more time they have on their hands, the better they can use their abilities and possibly draw conclusions or come up with ideas, or even draw a lucky night action. The less time, and speedy lynches, we risk taking them out of the game early - and suffer due to that.

Ed, when you have more people in play, you have more places for scum to hide. Yes, you have the potential of an extra roled townie in the game when it's at 4v2, but we all know how easy it is for scum drop a finder reveal and see what happens. Or a guard reveal (and say he guarded several innos) to try and 'narrow down' the suspect pool. Reveals make large numbers very dicey and ultimately, you have to put a name down.

Town roles are nice but they are not needed to win the game and they are no substitute for brain power.

[Grief]

PB:

"in a 4v2 you have the likely luxury of just going to night and having the killers remove a suspect, but it's always going to be someone who was considered innocent so what's the point?"

While you would be correct in a normal game, this seems to completely ignore the multi-lynch, whereby you could eliminate two people you think are scum.

Both a 3v2 D-day and a 4v2 D-day have different pros and cons. I listed the option of a 4v2 D-day in my post, and you do not seem to have an issue with this.

You come across as being defensive of Alt.

[Peanutbutta]

Grief,

OK, it does somewhat ignore the multi-lynch, but with a good reason--we don't have any CF about the lynched party in a 4v2 D-Day Scenario. Basically, we'd be required to lynch two people that day without knowing anything about the outcome of our first lynch. Because of this, it would be very easy for a scum to sell his team member down the river knowing that he could still net a town death out of it (one town lynch one scum lynch, both potentially masked behind the CF until day is over).

I find the scenario in which it is D-Day and we are just lynching with "hope" to be a very risky one.

[Grief]

Peanutbutta, on 13 July 2010 - 12:06 AM, said:

Grief,

OK, it does somewhat ignore the multi-lynch, but with a good reason--we don't have any CF about the lynched party in a 4v2 D-Day Scenario. Basically, we'd be required to lynch two people that day without knowing anything about the outcome of our first lynch. Because of this, it would be very easy for a scum to sell his team member down the river knowing that he could still net a town death out of it (one town lynch one scum lynch, both potentially masked behind the CF until day is over).

I find the scenario in which it is D-Day and we are just lynching with "hope" to be a very risky one.

Well, you are always going to be lynching with hope on D-day, and scum can sell out their team 3v2, or at any point.

The CF issue is a fair point. However, it's not that much of an issue.

3v2: 1 lynch. If the game continues, we've hit scum. Then you're at 3v1 the remainder of that day, and 2v1, or 3v1 next day, depending on the scums choice.
4v2: 2 lynches. If the game continues, one is scum. Since we wouldn't know which, you'd wait for the CF. Next day(assuming 1 inno 1 scum), you're either 2v1, or 3v1, depending on the scums choice.

Doesn't really make much differnce.

The difference it does make is in the information we have going into that day. 3v2 means we have had a double lynch at some point. This could potentially mean more information. Or it couldn't, if the lynch didn't have much reasoning.

Really, it just depends on the prior lynches. As far as I can tell, neither solution is inherently better, just based on the numbers. It just depends on how much information we are looking at getting from trains. If there are two strong trains on day 2, it's better to double lynch, and get both CFs. If there is one strong candidate only on day 2, it's better to single lynch, and save the lynch for day 3, with the possibility of more information from discussion.

I dislike the pushing towards certain lynching patterns before we have arrived at the situation where a decision is necessary. It is similar to people pushing for railroads, and setting up candidates for subsequent lynches.

At this time, there is no need to decide how many times we should lynch in the following days, and no benefit to be gained from it. There is no reason not to discuss the options, but without knowing what the situation will be tommorow, making a decision is pointless, and potentially harmful.

Having said that, from an information standpoint, I don't think we should lynch twice today. Currently there isn't even one strong candidate, never mind two. Unless this changes, it would be a waste to multi-lynch.

[hmqb]

Good news! HMQB's arrived, sorry for being late.

Alright so basically we have been talking about how many times to lynch for the past few pages, but still have no one to lynch in the first place. also everyone seems pretty agreed that we must lynch at least one person, well that parts pretty obvious.

So I agree with grief above, that we can go either of the two ways and it won't make much difference.


In my personal opinion it seems the the D-Day option is a little risky though.

[Vengeance]

Silencer, on 12 July 2010 - 10:42 PM, said:

I agree, but it's altless games where everyone falls into vendetta-fighting and ignores the less experienced players, and everyone gets hoodwinked before they even know it! XD
My point is that, while we all may be capable of spotting a ploy, that doesn't mean we won't get railroaded by scum if we make a few bad lynches early on, yes? It doesn't mean we will, either, but dismissing the possibility out of hand is probably not a good move.
I'm curious though, as to Vengy's semi-fearmongering. It strikes me as a strange thing to do so early in the game, rather pushing towards less lynches. His post makes sense, but it was probably unnecessary to state that kind of doom-and-gloom. Iunno.

Oh please I had to toss a little doom and gloom in there all of the previous talk was about how we had to multilynch on day one. I was merely trying to be a voice of reason. Alas it is a role that is unsuited for me, yet one that I find myself in due to my posting schedule this game. Personally I view the multilynch as a mechanic that should be tested out. But will be more powerful in day 3 of the game rather then in day one or two.