[Eloth]

Serc, on Jun 22 2009, 10:53 PM, said:

Serc, on Jun 22 2009, 01:24 PM, said:

Eloth, on Jun 22 2009, 01:07 PM, said:

Serc, on Jun 22 2009, 09:40 PM, said:

Eloth, on Jun 22 2009, 07:05 AM, said:

Woo, it seems I might be giving Ano a run for his money in the cool avatar category. Hah, take that you smug account

Healing the infected person before they are killed is a cool theory, but there are a couple of drawbacks to it. We dont know if we have a healer, it will be pretty obvious that the healer is dead when infected people start dying and it gives the killers free reign if they know who the healer is aiming for each night.

We really shouldnt get overly focused on the cult-like faction this game. With the mechanics laid out, a single transfer of recruiting power and the lack of a clear leader means they aren't the massive threat they usually are. I think hunting for killers and for the DG should both be equally important.

In mafia, this is the same as pointing the finger the other way. You don't come right out and say it, but you certainly attempt to downplay the cult. So take your strawman and cram it up your butt.

Look at the game so far - the only mention of the scum faction is "they probably have four players", whereas discussion about the cult is probably 2/3 of the thread. I think we should be looking at BOTH, rather than getting overly focused on a single foe. We've just come out of a game where the cult was the biggest priority, but the mechanics of last game were very different and I'm trying to make sure people dont get tunnel vision.

I know there isnt much to discuss about killers, since it's normally pretty straight forward and the only guess work is really their number, but it's easy to reach a point where they are at the back of people's minds and no-one is looking for them.

I am not trying to downplay the cult, rather I'm trying to prevent the killers getting downplayed. Once again I don't like the fact that you're misinterpreting the point that I'm trying to make.

Then you should be more clear. I really think you are trying to distance from both, leading me to believe you are one or the other.

The more I think about what you said the more it annoys me. You seem to fail to comprehend the set-up. The cult is the most dangerous to both the killers and the town, since it has the omg you auto-lose power. There is only 1 person immune and if you become infected and die....you cannot win. I've been playing loose and aggresive for just that reason, I think it also explains some of the higher than normal mentally-challenged-tardation in the thread. So yes in my mind you are trying to downplay the cult.

Remove Vote
Vote Eloth

I think I understand the setup well enough. I can think of a couple of reasons why the DG isnt as strong as a normal cult. I would list them but I dont want an "OMG he's downplaying the cult more" response. I'm not saying it isnt dangerous, the out-right lose factor adds a big twist to the game and a once the voting block reaches three or four people it will get lynches more often than not. So yes, we should be looking for the DG, but not to the extent that it lets the killers coast through the game.

[Hood's Path]

What the chances that Tellan is infected and is hoping that DG might pick him?

[Liosan]

Just for posterity, let's say there are 2 guards (being generous) and 2 night kills (Morgoth said it would be bloody). After a day 1 lynch, there are 20 people left and everything is fairly random at this point, so let's say the DG has even odds on being guarded and killed (again, generous). So he's got roughly a 1/10 chance of being killed, 1/10 chance of being guarded and 1/100 chance of both. I'd take those odds if I were infected.

edit: clarity

This post has been edited by Liosan: 22 June 2009 - 09:16 PM

[Hood's Path]

Liosan are you talking about keeping quiet as infected hoping the DG will pick you as replacement or owning up and hoping you are healed.

[Rashan]

@Serc

I don't share your annoyance with Eloth as I have to agree with him. This whole thread has been focusing almost entirely on the cult faction. I don't know if it's because it is much more interesting to talk about the cult than then killers or not but we do need to be aware that we are dealing with multiple sides here.

On that note, has there been anyone that has done an analysis on killers post counts and content from past Mafia games that might be able to give us clues on who the killers might be?

[Hood's Path]

The problem with post counts is that they can be unreliable, J_Slr if I remember correctly if he has the time will just post as much as inno as he does as killer.

You could go with low post count and jumps on trains, or high post count but barely discusses the game. They are quite good for getting potential first time killers.

But experienced players will try to be consitant to the point all you can say until you have info on them is that they can be anything.

[Galayn Lord]

Rashan, on Jun 22 2009, 04:20 PM, said:

@Serc

I don't share your annoyance with Eloth as I have to agree with him. This whole thread has been focusing almost entirely on the cult faction. I don't know if it's because it is much more interesting to talk about the cult than then killers or not but we do need to be aware that we are dealing with multiple sides here.

On that note, has there been anyone that has done an analysis on killers post counts and content from past Mafia games that might be able to give us clues on who the killers might be?

Go look at the rules post. Morgoth bolded a section about meta-arguments. I assume that analysis on past mafia games falls into this category.

[Rashan]

Galain, on Jun 22 2009, 05:04 PM, said:

Liosan, on Jun 22 2009, 01:56 PM, said:

Rashan, on Jun 22 2009, 04:07 PM, said:

Liosan, on Jun 22 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

Rashan, on Jun 22 2009, 02:23 PM, said:

Omtose, on Jun 22 2009, 01:54 PM, said:

@Lio - fair enough...just wanted to be cautious.

@Sil - yes I was, but given Lio's comment about healer might NOT being able to heal an SO then I guess it makes everything I thought a bit pointless, except the bit about not PIing an infected, especially as Rashan's latest but one post mentions the inno bit again. (Did he really vote night??? )

yes I did vote for night. I like the idea of testing out the whole idea of an infected revealing that they are infected just to see what happens. (call me sick for asking someone to potentially lose for my sick pleasure)

So I fail to see how voting night and testing out an infected reveal are at all correlated.

right now there is only one person infected. As they are in line to replace the DG if we somehow manage to kill the DG they are not likely to reveal that they are infected. Therefore to test the theory out the DG needs to infect someone else. To do that we need to go to night. As a group I doubt that we can get a good feel of who we need to lynch during the first day so I say we get that first day over so the DG can infect someone so then that person can revel as being infected. And as I haven't heard any good case as to who to lynch at the moment I currently rest at ending the day at the moment. I also know it takes 11 votes to end the day so I doubt that very many other people would also agree to that and there will be more chatter. I just wanted to get my vote in where I currently stand if I have to step away for a while and miss some action.

Except we're dealing with scum, too. So we lynch day one. ALWAYS.

I also don't think you noted that the DG can designate a new replacement every night. Don't you think the DG would rather his replacement be somebody hand-picked, rather than the random alt he gets at the beginning? If anything, the first infected has more incentive for revealing than future infected.

I'm gonna throw an "I agree" here because if the first infected doesn't reveal, then he's going to get KABOOMED the first time some new infected does reveal, because that's the guy with the only shot at getting healed. Otherwise, the first infected is just hoping to get randomly cured before he gets blown up.

In the rules it states that a DG has:

Synapse Overload -> The DG can decide to kill any number of infected players

This implies he can be selective on who is inflicted.

[Tellan]

Hood's Path, on Jun 22 2009, 01:13 PM, said:

What the chances that Tellan is infected and is hoping that DG might pick him?

DG knows who the first (random) infected is, lol


Liosan, why the fuck would I say anything if I was a DG? your wifom's weak.

this is mafia. ALWAYS think WCS, no matter how unlikely.
that'show I always play the game, and i don't intend to change that now.

[Hood's Path]

I forgot about that little rule about meta. Obvious though considering that your analysis of a player should be based on the game he's currently playing and not how he played in the past.

[Eloth]

Hehe, that sounds like Khell's mathematical analysis of post counts a couple of games ago to try find a killer. The relation of post-count to scumminess has been discussed to death and you really cant reliably use it as the sole basis of a vote.

[Galayn Lord]

Eloth, on Jun 22 2009, 04:36 PM, said:

Hehe, that sounds like Khell's mathematical analysis of post counts a couple of games ago to try find a killer. The relation of post-count to scumminess has been discussed to death and you really cant reliably use it as the sole basis of a vote.

You sure can! It is stupid to do but people in this game do stupid things all the time.

[Karatallid]

I also think that the infected person should reveal. But in the end it's up to them.

We're still missing Kaschan and Korlat, right?

[Hood's Path]

Best argument I saw was J_Slr was accused of being scum because he was discussing the game and tryiing to get people to talk and ended up having a silly number of posts, he got voted for, ok he was scum in that game but I've played games with him, there was no tell. Basically basing how many posts someone has in relation to the rest of the game and then using it as a argument for a players guilt or innocence is stupid.

[Karatallid]

What does WCS stand for?

[Tellan]

worst case scenario

[Galayn Lord]

remove

I am off for the night. I should easily be back before time-out.

[Hood's Path]

How long do we have?

[Eloth]

20 odd hours still, so lots of time.

[Silanah]

Galain, on Jun 22 2009, 11:06 PM, said:

Tellan, on Jun 22 2009, 01:59 PM, said:

why the hell would he?

he also has to work on WCS--DG may get killed night 1, and if he's also guarded, then the infectee's the only choice for a DG.

there's absolutely no reason for him to do a day 1 reveal. your suggestion may become useful later on, but not day 1

You have a valid point, but as I just stated, if the infected person does NOT reveal, he is guaranteeing his own death the moment someone else reveals infected.

Pay a little attention people, DG can not die night 1, he has a 1 hit BP, or did you miss that in your rush to make each other sound intelligent.

Morgoth, on Jun 17 2009, 07:36 PM, said:

Roles special for the game that will be present


The Doppelganger

1 hit BP

Actually why don't you guys go look through the above snipped post and read carefully....