[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 6. 14 hours and 40 minutes remaining

12 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Emurlahn, Gamelon, Korlat, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Shadow, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night

3 votes for Shadow: ( Gamelon, Omtose, Ampelas)

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Emurlahn, Korlat, Ruse, Serc, Shadow, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

[Telas]

Caught up, and will probably spend the next hour or so mulling over possibilities. It's times like this when I wonder if I'm smart enough to follow this game.

Early on, the fact that Shadow pointed out a case that led to Mockra seems strange behavior for a partner or symp. Which is why I wrote Shadow as an unlikely suspect. (Omtose said the same thing a page or so ago). However, looking over Ano's recent posts as well as Omtose's, I'm no longer sure.

Looking the other way, it's not that unreasonable for Shadow to point the finger at Ano for not getting night killed. If Ano is guard, why was Barghast killed instead? It seems a little far-fetched, but not impossible that Ano has done some elaborate obfuscation.

Weighing one against the other, Ano's case vs. Shadow seems more plausible.

OR, this whole thing is actually distracting us from the cruising scum who would be laughing at Ano and Shadow going at it.

Emurlahn, Ruse, Tellan, Serc, Korlat, where are you with this?

[Tellan]

judst got home, long moving day was LOOOONG

must eat, back soon

[Ruse]

Anomandaris, on Apr 28 2009, 02:12 PM, said:

ok, just found something disturbing, spoke to bent and because i asked nicely he told me there was no evil guard, therefore mockra was actually a killer. I really should have clarified this but didnt think (given the title of bents bouncer and my own darkwatch's bouncer) and that meant (assuming not 3 killers) that driss couldnt be the solo killer. now if people think there where three scum and 1 symp shadow could be the killer, if not then he cannot actually be the killer.

Unless bent is fucking with me and because mockra is dead there isnt an evil guard now.

we guarded shadow night 3 and driss night 4 and blocked tellan last night.

no matter what way i look at it now, we have had two symps. meanas and either fener or kessobahn.

The only thing that makes me wonder is if there was only one killer remaing why leave a guard in the open? tempted to change my vote and go for someone else. if fener was the symp, i think we need to look at gamelon.

Here is my theory. Unfortunately you are asleep so I can't confirm a couple things with you. You claim to be a guard and for the most part I believe you. I think you are paired as evidenced by your posting the PM's (not smart btw, people are going to pick up the posting style and find your partner, but spilled-milk). I'm sure you have 1 guard a night now per all your comments to that fact. If Mockra was not a scum guard, then he must have been a killer. The night after Mockra died a kill still went off. A kill has gone off everynight, despite you spreading the guards around. Symps take over for their masters. Nights are zero hours. Conclusion: Paired killers.

Circumstantial evidence: Ano didn't die last night, the killer(s) must not see his guard as a threat, at this point. Conclusion: 2 Killers left alive.

Any thoughts or criticisms?

[Tennes]

Ruse, on Apr 28 2009, 09:28 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on Apr 28 2009, 02:12 PM, said:

ok, just found something disturbing, spoke to bent and because i asked nicely he told me there was no evil guard, therefore mockra was actually a killer. I really should have clarified this but didnt think (given the title of bents bouncer and my own darkwatch's bouncer) and that meant (assuming not 3 killers) that driss couldnt be the solo killer. now if people think there where three scum and 1 symp shadow could be the killer, if not then he cannot actually be the killer.

Unless bent is fucking with me and because mockra is dead there isnt an evil guard now.

we guarded shadow night 3 and driss night 4 and blocked tellan last night.

no matter what way i look at it now, we have had two symps. meanas and either fener or kessobahn.

The only thing that makes me wonder is if there was only one killer remaing why leave a guard in the open? tempted to change my vote and go for someone else. if fener was the symp, i think we need to look at gamelon.

Here is my theory. Unfortunately you are asleep so I can't confirm a couple things with you. You claim to be a guard and for the most part I believe you. I think you are paired as evidenced by your posting the PM's (not smart btw, people are going to pick up the posting style and find your partner, but spilled-milk). I'm sure you have 1 guard a night now per all your comments to that fact. If Mockra was not a scum guard, then he must have been a killer. The night after Mockra died a kill still went off. A kill has gone off everynight, despite you spreading the guards around. Symps take over for their masters. Nights are zero hours. Conclusion: Paired killers.

Circumstantial evidence: Ano didn't die last night, the killer(s) must not see his guard as a threat, at this point. Conclusion: 2 Killers left alive.

Any thoughts or criticisms?

I just got caught up and was going to post the same thing. It is the only reason that I could think of for why Anomandaris hasn't been killed yet. Just thought that I would throw that out of there before I go to bed. I don't think that we can clear the people who Anomandaris has guarded.

Night


Edit: Some more thoughts. I think that there started off with 6 scum. Probably 2 paired killers and 4 symps. The symps wouldn't know each other only the killers. The symps who didn't become a new killer would then find out who the new one was. I also think that Fener and Kesso were the paired finders. That would explain why Kesso didn't use a find on the first night. Either that or they were both separate finders.

This post has been edited by Tennes: 29 April 2009 - 02:43 AM

[Omtose]

I've been thinking about it and I think we started out with more than just two killers and two symps for the number of people we're dealing with in this game. I think it's more than likely that we still have two killers out there. I still don't like Shadow's game play and I find him almost too helpful now and very specific for someone who had verly little to say he' suddenly almost overly helpful. I think the case we have going against him is pretty strong, he seems really scummy, and I don't like the idea of him getting away. We still have the block available to us so we can take Shadow out, block our other main suspect for scum and hope we can take both out one after the other. I'm sure Ano is inno and isn't lying about his role, but I think he could be underestiimating the number of killers were dealing with. I'm keeping my vote where it is and I think we should continue to try to get some more of a defense out of shadow because what he's said isn't that strong, look for more regarding that case and start looking at Gamelon.

[Tellan]

ok, just caught up.

something I don't get.

we are asssuming, there were 2 paired killers to start with, yes?

and then, if one dies, a symp replaces him, so that the number of killers is always constant?
in that case, may I ask, what good are our paired guards untill we are down to a sngle scum?

btw, I'm not sure where people got evil guard from--Bent didnt' mention one, so I never thought Mockra was anyhting other than a killer.

my reasoning ( I realize it's not the strongest) is that I don't recall ever having a game where symps would keep replacing paired killers.

so, i'm going off the the theory that we have 1 killer at a time, and a large number of symps. i don't know how Bent determined the order of thier promotion, bu tthere is probably a set order, which they follow.

as for the current cases, I didn't look especially carefully (moving a room worth of stuff from one city to a different one 300k away, making a trip there and back is tiring as hell), but from what I saw, I liked Tennes' case on Emurlahn. I realize that me going against a coaster will sound hyppocritical, but there it is.

[Telas]

Ruse makes a good point. A kill every night, from paired killers renders Ano and his partner effectively useless.

The killers then get the bonus of casting suspicion on Ano by not killing him. Ano speculated on the obvious in his PM share - someone would make a case on him because he's still alive. Shadow, for his part, was posting something obvious to everyone (why is ano alive?), so automatically assuming he's a scum making a case would be a bit of a jump without other evidence.

If the mechanics don't work like Ruse suggested though, someone please set the record straight.

But if they DO work the way he suggested, then we probably need to start looking at the players who are not contributing very much.

[Tellan]

sigh, i'm still ahving some difficulty wrapping my head around this... but it's probably just me.

i'll be headig to bed now.

should be back in 9 hours.

[Omtose]

Telas, on Apr 28 2009, 09:53 PM, said:

Ruse makes a good point. A kill every night, from paired killers renders Ano and his partner effectively useless.

The killers then get the bonus of casting suspicion on Ano by not killing him. Ano speculated on the obvious in his PM share - someone would make a case on him because he's still alive. Shadow, for his part, was posting something obvious to everyone (why is ano alive?), so automatically assuming he's a scum making a case would be a bit of a jump without other evidence.

If the mechanics don't work like Ruse suggested though, someone please set the record straight.

But if they DO work the way he suggested, then we probably need to start looking at the players who are not contributing very much.

Yes this is why I think we need to look at Gamelon, I'm busy at the moment but I will do so as soon as I have a chance. Hopefully before I go to bed.

[Ruse]

Telas, on Apr 28 2009, 08:53 PM, said:

Ruse makes a good point. A kill every night, from paired killers renders Ano and his partner effectively useless.

The killers then get the bonus of casting suspicion on Ano by not killing him. Ano speculated on the obvious in his PM share - someone would make a case on him because he's still alive. Shadow, for his part, was posting something obvious to everyone (why is ano alive?), so automatically assuming he's a scum making a case would be a bit of a jump without other evidence.

If the mechanics don't work like Ruse suggested though, someone please set the record straight.

But if they DO work the way he suggested, then we probably need to start looking at the players who are not contributing very much.

If Shadow thought he was CI'd by Ano's guard while we were working under the assumption that it's 1 solo killer, wouldn't that make it less of a jump? If we assume Ano wasn't killed for the reasons I mentioned, why wasn't Shadow killed last night after making a thread summary and pointing a lot of fingers?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 6. 11 hours and 52 minutes remaining

12 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Emurlahn, Gamelon, Korlat, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Shadow, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night

3 votes for Shadow: ( Gamelon, Omtose, Ampelas)

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Emurlahn, Korlat, Ruse, Serc, Shadow, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

[Serc]

I must admit I'm also a little confused by all this. Why were people asking earlier if there were two killers or three? As Ruse pointed out, anything more than one killer makes a guard useless until there is only one scum left. With symps constantly replacing killers, that would only happen right at the end of the game. Might explain why the guards were paired though, since paired players are way more likely to survive until late game imho. At the end of the day though paired, replaced killers puts team inno at one helluva disadvantage. Guards cant be used to eliminate people as suspects, meaning the finder is our only tool in that area. That combined with the fact that after every scum CF anyone who was cleared in the past could possibly have become scum means that barring a lucky find, our night actions are next to useless.

That makes it seem way more likely that there is only one killer at a time, but the fact that there was still a kill the night after Mockra was lynched does suggest two. Unless of course Mockra's provisional for that night was used on the new scum's behalf (if that's the case imagine the hilarity if the provisional had been placed on the person that became killer that night). Anyway, it is still possible that there's only one killer at a time, so we shouldnt discount the fact. Unfortunately we're not going to know until we hit spoilers, but that simple fact makes a huge difference in how we play the game.

If there's only one killer, Driss, Shadow and I forget the other person (Three nights since Mockra's lynch) are all clear for having been guarded by Ano. If there's paired killers then NOONE is cleared of anything . So yah, I'm kinda at a loss. There really is no way we can know the number of scum and there are a number of equally likely possibilities. I'd like to believe Bent wouldn't have been so cruel as to have put in paired scum, but you never know. I have no idea who to vote for at this point

[Serc]

Is anyone else around? Still have about 6 hours by my reckoning.

[Telas]

Ruse, on Apr 29 2009, 12:07 AM, said:

Telas, on Apr 28 2009, 08:53 PM, said:

Ruse makes a good point. A kill every night, from paired killers renders Ano and his partner effectively useless.

The killers then get the bonus of casting suspicion on Ano by not killing him. Ano speculated on the obvious in his PM share - someone would make a case on him because he's still alive. Shadow, for his part, was posting something obvious to everyone (why is ano alive?), so automatically assuming he's a scum making a case would be a bit of a jump without other evidence.

If the mechanics don't work like Ruse suggested though, someone please set the record straight.

But if they DO work the way he suggested, then we probably need to start looking at the players who are not contributing very much.

If Shadow thought he was CI'd by Ano's guard while we were working under the assumption that it's 1 solo killer, wouldn't that make it less of a jump? If we assume Ano wasn't killed for the reasons I mentioned, why wasn't Shadow killed last night after making a thread summary and pointing a lot of fingers?

A valid question. Instead, Barghast was killed for reasons not entirely clear. What the kill did though, was narrow the pool of suspects from the group that hasn't participated a whole lot.

If we follow the line of reasoning that the killers were relying on us not coming up with the idea that the guards were actually useless, then they had to make a choice of who to kill if they weren't going to kill Ano. Their choices were basically between more frequent posters, semi-frequent posters and those who have barely shown. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that unless Korlat is a killer himself (and playing a hella successful low-profile game), the killers would ignore Korlat since he's been a non-entity. The killers did choose a rather non-frequent poster. Why? They could have chosen a more frequent poster ala Shadow or Omtose.

Question for Ano on mechanics, do you and your partner automatically guard the same person? If the killers are paired and can still get a kill through if you're guarding one of them, can you split up as well? If no, that basically means that the guard position hasn't been at all useful from the very beginning. That's kind of hard to believe, since it would be a nasty wrinkle in the game play.

edit: big cross post with serc

This post has been edited by Telas: 29 April 2009 - 08:46 AM

[Telas]

Serc, your post hits a lot of nails on the head. Team killers is a tough thing to beat if the guards really are useless. I know there's some doubt as to whether Fener and/or Korv were telling the truth, but if they both WERE telling the truth, and with both being dead, there's a good chance we're SOL.

[Gamelon]

OK, I find I’m being mentioned quite a bit (good for my ego), all in relation to Fener’s night 1 find and my middle of the roadish gameplay, I assume, and a bit of theorycraft that possibly starts here (warning, long post is long):

Anomandaris, on Apr 28 2009, 02:12 PM, said:

ok, just found something disturbing, spoke to bent and because i asked nicely he told me there was no evil guard, therefore mockra was actually a killer. I really should have clarified this but didnt think (given the title of bents bouncer and my own darkwatch's bouncer) and that meant (assuming not 3 killers) that driss couldnt be the solo killer. now if people think there where three scum and 1 symp shadow could be the killer, if not then he cannot actually be the killer. Unless bent is fucking with me and because mockra is dead there isnt an evil guard now. we guarded shadow night 3 and driss night 4 and blocked tellan last night. no matter what way i look at it now, we have had two symps. meanas and either fener or kessobahn. The only thing that makes me wonder is if there was only one killer remaing why leave a guard in the open? tempted to change my vote and go for someone else. if fener was the symp, i think we need to look at gamelon.

Ehm, in answer to your underscored bit: D'riss came up inno? How could she ever have been scum apart from symp, which is what you do not accuse her of by saying solo killer, nor by listing her with Kesso, Meanas or Fener?

Secondly, Meanas was obviously scum, I think we all agree on that. If I use that info and look through my own estimates at the game (2 paired killers because we have only 1 kill a night, but have had it while Mockra died, and an unknown number of symps but probably two or more to start with) then Fener as a symp making a case and then revealing finder on his masters ass is hardly a symp move, especially if/when the killers don't know their symps.

Revealing finder is a shortcut to death, usually, so if he was a symp, he would die too unless there was a healer, or unless he was promoted to killer himself immediately, or unless th killers know their symps, in which case this isn’t tmdi 2/3. If he was to be promoted himself, he would have had to with hold his kill one night to fake it. Net result: 1 dead scum and 1 night a no-kill just to guarantee his own personal cover (which could still be investigated, and there still could be a counter claim later on), as well as basically having to make a list of who he CIed which night while approaching the end-game.
If anyone else was promoted, Fener would have to fear for his life if scum don’t know their symps or he would have had to rely on a healer, so probably upping the body count to 2 dead scum (Mockra and himself). I call that madness, don’t know about you guys.

Since he came up inno on his CF, 'all' Fener could have been, once again, is a symp.

Now, let's just assume for the sake of reason that he was a symp, then you need to answer two questions: why would he have given us Mockra's alignment? Mockra wasn’t looking good, but he was mostly pushed by Fener and in reaction, 9 people voted Fener before he came with the finder reveal.
If he was a symp, once again, would you reveal finder at that time if you weren’t?

And if Kesso was a symp, knowing the killer, and Fener a real finder, why would he back up Fener for gods sake on a find on his own master while the finder was revealing at L-2 I think it was?
By adding his vote against him, portraying the reveal as a typical scum move, then logging off, well, he would have been a whole lot stronger and could see Fener dead and Mockra saved for a day.

Instead he irrevocably backed up Fener. Unless the symps know one another, why would he? More, Kesso was also not promoted to killer after Mockra’s death, cause on the kill, he showed up inno, didn’t he?

Now, Kesso’s reveal was out of the blue. Since it is WCS scenario anyway, I’ll put a voice to my fear and say it well could be that we have no more finders: I think Kesso could well have been Fener’s partner, coming to his rescue at L-2. If I’m wrong, they were either solo finders in which case the WCS still stands, and in the best case, if they haven’t been targeted by killers, then there are still 2 partners out there silently amassing information.

However, if you dismiss all the above as bullshit and take it one step further and assume Fener got my name as his second master, why would he say he had an inno find on me? He would have known that the results of a find carry only immediate weight and can change the next night: by going from symp to killer as per the rules. All it did was make me stand out later on as it could come back on me as a boomerang.

Slick plays on Westeros, they’re smart guys there, wouldn’t think he’d make this move as a symp, but that’s meta and never good for a case/defense.

Back to what happened, meta aside. I steered more or less clear from everything that happened around Mockra, so if Fener was a symp, was there an actual need for that PI? I critized Fener’s playstyle, called him pushing so many people at the same time bloodthirsty instead of focused aggression, implying he could be a symp at that point, but that was all I had to do with it, iirc, I sure as hell didn’t doubt his finder reveal nor Ano’s reveal.

I did employ the find for personal gain in one way only after Fener revealed his find on me: I put in a healer code I have used before and that is nothing more than a visual gimmick, easily spotted, hoping that if we had a healer and a kill would bounce of Fener due to it, that the killer(s) would then come for me trying to get rid of what they might perceive as a healer, buying the finder and the real healer(s) another night and proving myself to be a real inno upon CF. My middle of the roadish gameplay up until now would have suited a healer’s behaviour to a tee, as well.

We all know that you do not reveal as healer, so it’s not a move scum would make (although that is of course completely wifom).

I’ll be hopping on and off for the remainder of the day to answer questions, but I don’t expect many of them. I played a fairly clean and even game apart from my rushed case on Shadow yesterday, so I expect the clincher here is whether or not we believe Fener to be a symp, and then determine what we have to do with the conclusion.
Lynching anyone on theorycraft on the set-up without thinking it through first and from all angles is a bad move, and I would advocate that even if it wasn’t my cute little ass on the line.

[Korlat]

Finally got back online
I have had thoughts on the setup of the game and I suspect there to be 4 scum.
Paired killers with either 2 all knowing symps or a symp for each killer
I suspect that it might have been a symp for each killer.. as they just replace their masters
Meanas might have been a symp for someone other than Mockra and someone is the new killer after Mockra's death
Today I will place my vote on Tellan as he is slipping by..
Really seems to be lying low

[Anomandaris]

Ruse, on Apr 29 2009, 02:04 AM, said:

Here. I finally got through most of that, I will probably need to skim it again to absorb all of it. Ano can you confirm you guarded Tellan last night?

Edit- also can you confirm you have 1 paired guard action?

1 paired guard action.

Ruse, on Apr 29 2009, 03:28 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on Apr 28 2009, 02:12 PM, said:

ok, just found something disturbing, spoke to bent and because i asked nicely he told me there was no evil guard, therefore mockra was actually a killer. I really should have clarified this but didnt think (given the title of bents bouncer and my own darkwatch's bouncer) and that meant (assuming not 3 killers) that driss couldnt be the solo killer. now if people think there where three scum and 1 symp shadow could be the killer, if not then he cannot actually be the killer.

Unless bent is fucking with me and because mockra is dead there isnt an evil guard now.

we guarded shadow night 3 and driss night 4 and blocked tellan last night.

no matter what way i look at it now, we have had two symps. meanas and either fener or kessobahn.

The only thing that makes me wonder is if there was only one killer remaing why leave a guard in the open? tempted to change my vote and go for someone else. if fener was the symp, i think we need to look at gamelon.

Here is my theory. Unfortunately you are asleep so I can't confirm a couple things with you. You claim to be a guard and for the most part I believe you. I think you are paired as evidenced by your posting the PM's (not smart btw, people are going to pick up the posting style and find your partner, but spilled-milk). I'm sure you have 1 guard a night now per all your comments to that fact. If Mockra was not a scum guard, then he must have been a killer. The night after Mockra died a kill still went off. A kill has gone off everynight, despite you spreading the guards around. Symps take over for their masters. Nights are zero hours. Conclusion: Paired killers.

Circumstantial evidence: Ano didn't die last night, the killer(s) must not see his guard as a threat, at this point. Conclusion: 2 Killers left alive.

Any thoughts or criticisms?

Given the zero nights though it is likely that mockras provisional would be used in his stead, or the potential killer was also required to put in a provisional.

Telas, on Apr 29 2009, 09:44 AM, said:

Ruse, on Apr 29 2009, 12:07 AM, said:

Telas, on Apr 28 2009, 08:53 PM, said:

Ruse makes a good point. A kill every night, from paired killers renders Ano and his partner effectively useless.

The killers then get the bonus of casting suspicion on Ano by not killing him. Ano speculated on the obvious in his PM share - someone would make a case on him because he's still alive. Shadow, for his part, was posting something obvious to everyone (why is ano alive?), so automatically assuming he's a scum making a case would be a bit of a jump without other evidence.

If the mechanics don't work like Ruse suggested though, someone please set the record straight.

But if they DO work the way he suggested, then we probably need to start looking at the players who are not contributing very much.

If Shadow thought he was CI'd by Ano's guard while we were working under the assumption that it's 1 solo killer, wouldn't that make it less of a jump? If we assume Ano wasn't killed for the reasons I mentioned, why wasn't Shadow killed last night after making a thread summary and pointing a lot of fingers?

A valid question. Instead, Barghast was killed for reasons not entirely clear. What the kill did though, was narrow the pool of suspects from the group that hasn't participated a whole lot.

If we follow the line of reasoning that the killers were relying on us not coming up with the idea that the guards were actually useless, then they had to make a choice of who to kill if they weren't going to kill Ano. Their choices were basically between more frequent posters, semi-frequent posters and those who have barely shown. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that unless Korlat is a killer himself (and playing a hella successful low-profile game), the killers would ignore Korlat since he's been a non-entity. The killers did choose a rather non-frequent poster. Why? They could have chosen a more frequent poster ala Shadow or Omtose.

Question for Ano on mechanics, do you and your partner automatically guard the same person? If the killers are paired and can still get a kill through if you're guarding one of them, can you split up as well? If no, that basically means that the guard position hasn't been at all useful from the very beginning. That's kind of hard to believe, since it would be a nasty wrinkle in the game play.

edit: big cross post with serc

Kills go through if we guard only one of a pair. Guards though arent useful until end game.

Bent also confirmed that the symp upgrades upon the death of the killer.

[Anomandaris]

Gamelon, on Apr 29 2009, 09:57 AM, said:

Ehm, in answer to your underscored bit: D'riss came up inno? How could she ever have been scum apart from symp, which is what you do not accuse her of by saying solo killer, nor by listing her with Kesso, Meanas or Fener?

I was commenting on how we may have made a monumental fuck up, not implying scumminess.