[Nicodimas]

Yea it looks like we are clearing this mess finally, the total job losses were only 565,000. With this many people gaining unemployment check's they should be able to buy into the stockmarket, which overall volume is at historic lows not seen in decades. The good part about this is the goverment is riding this greenshot wave buying the majority of shares available and now that consumer's confidence is returning people will be able to buy it from the goverment..

-Nic out.

Here's is hoping that the low passed..
<errr your about the 18th person to point out the recession is over now>

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 13 August 2009 - 08:53 PM

[Nicodimas]

Nicodimas, on Aug 13 2009, 08:50 PM, said:

Yea it looks like we are clearing this mess finally, the total job losses were only 565,000. With this many people gaining unemployment check's they should be able to buy into the stockmarket, which overall volume is at historic lows not seen in decades. The good part about this is the goverment is riding this greenshot wave buying the majority of shares available and now that consumer's confidence is returning people will be able to buy it from the goverment..

-Nic out.

Here's is hoping that the low passed..
<errr your about the 18th person to point out the recession is over now>

Err this was supposed to be an add of the above post...

Some more info:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/w...le-heck-up.html

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 17 August 2009 - 04:58 AM

[Adjutant Stormy~]

But at what cost...

[Nicodimas]

Who is Tyler durden?

It's great that Zero hedge( and market ticker) have become so popular that people are starting to dig out info about these people. When Dennniger got on msnbc he got robbed of presenting information to the masses sadly, as they just went into his past more than anything. However the flow of information is amazing on the internet and hopefully will lead to people being positively informed about what's really going down. I know some people think it is spreading of fear for some unknown reason to me, but preping for the crash is extremely important and a life changing event.


Thought you all might enjoy article as it really parralels Atlas shrugged to current reality imo...Maybe some people decided to exist inside the system is to be corrupt.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/who...ler-durden.html

-Nic out.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 21 August 2009 - 07:52 PM

[Cougar]

Well there's a post that make a lot of sense to a non-American!

[stone monkey]

Ah... Atlas Shrugged... That explains a lot...

[Cougar]

stone monkey, on Aug 21 2009, 10:55 PM, said:

Ah... Atlas Shrugged... That explains a lot...

Taking this phrase in inappropriate isolation: the only thing that Atlas Shrugged explains is why Ayn Rand should have never have been left alone near a typewriter.

Stay on topic etc...

This post has been edited by Cougar: 21 August 2009 - 10:45 PM

[Nicodimas]

By one of my favorite writers who wrote~ World Made by Hand and The Long Emergency. He makes a great point on what America is facing and most are ignoring. You will love it!

I love the fact about the robot trading in paticular....Over 40% of the market is by high frequency trading.

James Howard Kunstler says:

Financial Crisis Called Off

Quote

By James Howard Kunstler
on August 24, 2009 7:49 AM
Whew, what a relief! Everybody from Ben Bernanke and a Who's Who of banking poobahs schmoozing it up in the heady vapors of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to the dull scribes at The New York Times, toiling in their MC Escher hall of mirrors, to poor dim James Surowiecki over at The New Yorker, to - wonder of wonders! - the Green Shoots claque at the cable networks, to the assorted quants, grinds, nerds, pimps, factotums, catamites, and cretins in every office from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the International Monetary Fund - every man-Jack and woman-Jill around the levers of power and opinion weighed in last week with glad tidings that the world's capital finance system survived what turned out to be a mere protracted bout of heartburn and has been reborn as the Miracle Bull economy. Our worries over. If you believe their bull****. Which I don't.

All this goes to show is how completely the people in charge of things in the USA have lost their minds. They seem to think this mass exercise in pretend will resurrect the great march to the WalMarts, to the new car showrooms, and the cul-de-sac model houses, reignite another round of furious sprawl-building, salad-shooter importing, and no-doc liar-lending, not to mention the pawning off of innovative, securitized stinking-carp debt paper onto credulous pension funds in foreign lands where due diligence has never been heard of, renew the leveraged buying-out of zippy-looking businesses by smoothies who have no idea how to run them (and no real intention of doing it, anyway), resuscitate the construction of additional strip malls, new office park "capacity" and Big Box "power centers," restart the trade in granite countertops and home theaters, and pack the turnstiles of Walt Disney world - all this while turning Afghanistan into a neighborhood that Beaver Cleaver would be proud to call home.

By the way - and please pardon the rather sharp digression - but does anybody know if they buried Michael Jackson yet? It's only been a couple of months. And, if not, is that the stench now wafting across the purple mountains' majesty from sea-to-shining sea? Isn't it a little indecent to keep the poor fellow waiting? Or is a really surprising comeback secretly planned, with product tie-ins and all?

America loves the word "recovery" as only a catastrophically sick society can. "In recovery" is the new universal mantra of loser individuals and loser nations. Everybody in the USA is in recovery. Even Michael Jackson (he may have given up on somatic activity but, on the plus side, as the Rotarians love to say, he's quit using drugs for once and for all, and the magazines have stopped publishing photos of him taken after 1990, when he turned himself into something out of the Hammer Films catalog).

To sum it all up, the US economy is in recovery. Paul Krugman says that we'll soon realize that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing. He actually said that on the Sunday TV chat circuit. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I would really like to know what you mean by that Paul, you fatuous wanker. Do you mean that the Atlanta homebuilders are going to open up a new suburban frontier down in Twiggs County so that commuters can enjoy driving Chrysler Crossfires a hundred and sixty miles a day to new jobs as flash traders in the Peachtree Plaza? Do you mean that the Home Equity Fairy is going to wade into the sea of foreclosure and save twenty million mortgage holders currently sojourning in the fathomless depths with the anglerfish? Do you mean that all the bales of deliquescing, toxic "assets" hidden in the vaults of Citibank, JP Morgan, Bank of America, et al, (not to mention on the books of every pension fund in the USA, and not a few elsewhere) will magically turn into Little Debbie Snack Cakes on Labor Day weekend? Do you mean that American Express and Master Card are about to declare a Jubilee on accounts in default everywhere? Do you mean that General Motors will produce a car that a.) anyone really wants to buy and b.) that the company can sell at a profit? Are you saying we get a do-over, going back to, say, 1981? Did we win some cosmic lottery that hasn't been announced yet? What's growing in this country besides unemployment, bankruptcy, repossession, liquidation, gun ownership, and suicidal despair? In short, are you out of your mind, Paul Krugman?

The key to the current madness, of course, is this expectation, this wish, really, that all the rackets, games, dodges, scams, and workarounds that American banking, business, and government devised over the past thirty years - to cover up the dismal fact that we produce so little of real value these days - will just magically return to full throttle, like a machine that has spent a few weeks in the repair shop. This is not going to happen, of course. It is permanently and irredeemably broken - this Rube Goldberg contraption of swindles all based on the idea that it's possible to get something for nothing. And more to the point, we're really doing nothing to reconstruct our economy along lines that are consistent with the realities of energy, geopolitics, or resource scarcity. So far, our notions about a "green" economy amount to little more than blowing green smoke up our collective ass. We think we're going to build "green" skysc****rs! We're too dumb to see what a contradiction in terms this is. The architects are completely uninterested in the one thing that really is "green" - traditional urban design - and most particularly the walkable neighborhood. That's just too conventional, not special enough, lacking in star power, not enough of a statement, boring, tedious, so not cutting edge! We blather about high speed rail, but you can't even get from Cleveland to Cincinnati on a regular train - and what's more amazing, nobody is really interested in making this happen. All we really care about is finding some miracle method to keep all the cars running.

What we've been seeing is nothing more than a massive pump-and-dump operation in the stock markets, most of it executed by programmed robot traders, with the trading nut provided by taxpayers current and future. These shenanigans add up to new risks and fragilities so extreme that the next time a grain of sand catches in the exquisite machinery they will sink the USA as a viable enterprise. We will end up discrediting not just capitalism, but also the idea of capital per se, that is, of deployable acquired wealth. As this occurs, of course, events on-the-ground will give new meaning to the term "reality television."

http://www.kunstler.com/blog/

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 25 August 2009 - 08:04 PM

[Cold Iron]

I love this shit. ^

[Cougar]

Whilst he has an entertaining style (if rather laboured) Kunstler has a penchant for either stating the obvious over and over again or speculative ill-founded fear mongering. Some of you may remember his humilation over the predictions on a 'Y2K disaster which he then tried to lie his way out of by positing a worldwide governmental cover-up over the costs of rectifying a non-existent problem. He's also made some wild predictions about encroaching financial apocalypse in at least 3 of the last 5 years, none of which have come-off. He then tried to retcon the idea that his vague meanderings were portents of the current financial fuck-up all along, which of course, they were not.

[Nicodimas]

I think my new favorite line about the economy is what I have been hearing everywhere:

Us Govt 2009-"We Avoided the Depression, but we are pacing toward Armageddon"

Yes it is that bad. I am calling 4 dollar+ gas soon.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/racketeer...ses-information

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 27 August 2009 - 07:24 PM

[Cold Iron]

All quiet on the doom and gloom front?

What is zero hedge saying lately? (yes i could go there and read it myself but I prefer discussion)

[HoosierDaddy]

This seems suitably doom and gloomy, CI. I will say I have no idea what it means other than the fact that it seems as though the world is conspiring against the American Dollar. Maybe. Seriously, I have no idea what this means. But, it's on their front page.

Quote

Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Everyone who grew up watching James Bond must have had a kick reading the news last night or this morning, and finding out about secret meetings between China, Russia, Gulf countries, France, and Brazil, plotting to organize the demise of the US dollar. Unlike in Goldfinger, the villains this time weren't planning to plant a bomb in Fort Knox, but rather stop using the greenback, and instead price currencies against a basket of currencies composed of (drums please): the yuan, the ruble, a newly created Arab currency, the euro, the yen, and gold. I don't remember reading the Brazilian real but we could throw it in there so we don't hurt anybody's feelings.

Let's be serious. Russia was inches from begging the IMF for money last fall. The Yuan is not freely tradable and money supply in China is growing at twice the pace at which it is growing in the US, the UK, or Europe. The Chinese government actually believes the acronym GDP stands for printing money to buy commodities. The Euro has shown how using a single currency for a set of different economies is extremely difficult to manage. Spain and Ireland used the euro to fuel (or extend) bubbles before completely collapsing in near-depression. Setting appropriate rates is very difficult and there is little doubt that if more Eastern European countries get integrated the problem will be magnified, as these countries will jump on the opportunity to become centers of production, and this time they will be protected under the same exchange rate regime as the rest of the EU, unlike last fall where many of them almost went bankrupt. Then comes the Yen, it has been used as part of jokes involving gazillions in several Hollywood comedies over the past 20 years but other than that it has mainly fueled every carry trade before the USD joined it.

Honestly people need to think really hard before they start discussing a new world reserve currency or other options of the sort to replace the USD. Every currency needs to be associated with an interest rate regime, which takes you back to the problem discussed before regarding the Euro. All you will achieve with a unique currency is kill any cost of production differences across the countries adopting the new currency, and align everybody on a single living standard benchmark. With different currencies, if producing abroad is cheaper a country will import, and with a negative balance of payments the currencies will adjust to reflect, thereby smoothing out the process. Eliminate foreign exchange as your equalizer and all you will have is the alignment of everybody's living standard on that of Chinese farmers. That's not even discussing bubbles that could be formed by having a standard rate curve for everybody under that new currency. Imagine if Brazilians could borrow at 0% instead of 10%? Would the Bovespa be only up 4 folds since 2000? I think not. The second issue is liquidity management. While recently it seems the method applied has been a ruthless flooding of the markets with liquidity, it remains that overall the Fed has an unmatched expertise when it comes to managing liquidity. It took all that experience and an incredible arsenal of innovative tools to insure there would not be a run on a bank last year. Managing a central bank on a more global level would be almost impossible.

Certainly many countries are concerned about using the USD as the reserve currency, and when the market for funding became tight last year many of them were afraid of going bankrupt... but it was mainly because they were short USD. Let's be very clear, if you borrow a currency and it suddenly appreciates you are in trouble. That will be true even if you used gold or copper as your benchmark. If suddenly the price of copper rose sharply and a country has some debt to refinance in copper or gold, things will be difficult. It's easy for countries whose currency don't inspire any confidence to borrow in dollars and then complain. Maybe managing their finances and currency differently would allow them to sell bonds in their local currency. After all with Turkey's CDS at an all time low, there is risk appetite for emerging anything so that financing in local currencies should be possible.

And if you decided to use a precious metal as your new currency, wouldn't there be a huge political risk with all the producing countries. Maybe it's worth going through the list of gold producing countries and make sure there are no surprises... Having unstable countries control a vital resource is dangerous, this is nothing new, and that has been a problem with oil in the past, a more serious problem than the USD can potentially be I might add. It is ironical to have countries manipulating their currencies turn around and complain about the dollar because our finances are not in order. It is reminiscent of having Lybia or Iran complain about the lack of democracy at the UN. It certainly is a fair attempt at using our politically correctness against us, but it cannot be answered seriously. Our finances are not in order, we know that, but no one is really in a position of giving lessons on the subject right now. We have an imperfect system for world trade, but it took us far and it's the best option for now, so let's not mistake misplaced malicious regional interests for inevitable future consequences, and let's have a proper open reflection on the subject.

Good luck trading,

Nic

Is their Nic, OUR Nic?

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 07 October 2009 - 04:07 AM

[Cold Iron]

Reads like someone shit scared.

Everyone knows dumping USD will destabalise world economy. Some might see it as an acceptable consequence of a necessary action...

[Grand Goombah Graeld]

Conspiring would be the wrong word. Rather, they're recognizing the fact that the dollar is in real trouble and contemplating a change of the world reserve currency, which has been the dollar since we left the gold standard, to either another country's currency, or a "basket" of currencies from multiple countries. This guy is postulating that this change would be a bad idea and that basically, he believes the world should keep the dollar as the world reserve currency and the rest of the world isn't in a position to give the U.S. economic lessons. Unfortunately he didn't identify anyone who COULD give us economic lessons. We damn sure need them, as a country.

CI - Much better than I at keeping it succinct. Good job...

This post has been edited by Grand Goombah Graeld: 07 October 2009 - 05:00 AM

[HoosierDaddy]

I said "conspiring" and admitted my knowledge on the subject was near null value, so, take the article for what it is saying minus editorial value.

I'm happy enough to just laugh at it at face value anyways. Good for world ruining economy that destroys millions of lives. Huzzah!

[Cold Iron]

On the up side I just realised that I started this thread at pretty much the bottom of the slump in terms of DJI. Check out progress since then (couldn't be fucked adjusting scale):

 DowJones.JPG (27.72K)
Number of downloads: 2
 DJIOCT.JPG (27.29K)
Number of downloads: 2

[HoosierDaddy]

Jesus, if 2008 wasn't a crash I don't know what is in historical perspective. The visual is stunning, really. And yet, only six years earlier, the market was just about the same. Moral of the story? Bubbles are bad news, and when bubbles are gambled on and pushed to the extreme, they become massive bursts that radically drop values.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 07 October 2009 - 05:23 AM

[Cold Iron]

I'd love to see a graph with the value of gold overlaid on the value of stocks with a long time scale. I bet it'd be a good indicator of when to sell and buy. Buy when stocks are low compared with gold, sell when they're high.

[Shinrei]

I can't pull up the exact thing (i looked for it, couldn't find it, although I saw it previously and am miffed I can't find it now), but it's pretty obvious that while the Dow's performance is shockingly poor when you factor in inflation, gold has maintained a rather steady hand. In fact, many think gold is still undervalued due to inflation factors. By my own calculations (far from expert), gold should find itself at $1400 and silver is terribly undervalued. If anyone's looking for a decent investment with nice upside, physical silver may be the way to go. It's about $16 US at the moment, and based on traditional gold to silver ratios, it should be $30 or more. Sooner or later silver is going to catch on, so for people without a lot of cash, silver is a much better deal. (you can currently buy almost 65 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold) If it doubled, you'd make $1040, wheras if gold went up $500, you'd make $500 on the same investment.