Malazan Empire: Economic Collapse - Malazan Empire

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Economic Collapse Starting to worry now...

#1 User is offline   Cold Iron 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 06:23 AM

Ok so there are other threads on this but the db is pretty dead these days and posting in a dead thread is not the best way to get a lot of responses, so here's a new one...

I'm starting to get worried about this:

Attached File  DowJones.JPG (27.72K)
Number of downloads: 13

It's the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

I'm starting to get the feeling that 50% of us will be out of a job by the end of the year. Prove me wrong.

This post has been edited by Cold Iron: 04 March 2009 - 06:25 AM

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#2 User is offline   Illuyankas 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 06:26 AM

No. Instead, I put it to you that 50% of us will be employed by the end of the year. Prove ME wrong.
Hello, soldiers, look at your mage, now back to me, now back at your mage, now back to me. Sadly, he isn’t me, but if he stopped being an unascended mortal and switched to Sole Spice, he could smell like he’s me. Look down, back up, where are you? You’re in a warren with the High Mage your cadre mage could smell like. What’s in your hand, back at me. I have it, it’s an acorn with two gates to that realm you love. Look again, the acorn is now otataral. Anything is possible when your mage smells like Sole Spice and not a Bole brother. I’m on a quorl.
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#3 User is offline   HoosierDaddy 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 06:27 AM

Can't. The lack of confidence in the American economy and amongst its populace is staggering. People just have to hope they have a recession proof (as much as one can be) job.
Trouble arrives when the opponents to such a system institute its extreme opposite, where individualism becomes godlike and sacrosanct, and no greater service to any other ideal (including community) is possible. In such a system rapacious greed thrives behind the guise of freedom, and the worst aspects of human nature come to the fore....
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#4 User is offline   Mushroom 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 07:50 AM

If you turn it upside down. It doesn't look so bad!



In all seroiusness though. I think the worst is still yet to come really. Will be hard times indeed. It won't completely recover I think untill Mid 2010 to early 2011. Thats being optimistic too I think.

After that too, We will All (hopefully) have different ideas on our spenditure of credit. That is being Much more careful with it. I can only assume as well that most governments will learn to put in regulations to not allow banks to give credit to people that will not be able to pay it back, like they did this time..

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#5 User is offline   Skywalker 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 08:43 AM

While I'm not saying things aren't bad - they are - stock markets in general and the DJIA in particular are bad ways to measure this. Stock markets are like hyperventilating teens who attempt suicide when dumped (and do other crazy stuff)

I would be more alarmed about these charts:

US Unemployment since 97 in %

Posted Image

Federal Reserve interest rates in %

Posted Image

The reason the second chart is alarming is that interest rates were the primary tool in the Feds toolkit (or so common wisdom dictated between ~1980 and 2006) and it is now zero, so cannot be reduced.

This post has been edited by Skywalker: 04 March 2009 - 08:45 AM

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#6 User is offline   Sindriss 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:36 AM

I wouldn't worry too much about it. It is normal to have recessions and only fools think that suddenly we are above those and from now on we will only have an increase in the GDP.
50% unemployment is seriously unrealistic, I would think that the us might have a max unemployment at 18-20%. And that is really max, I cannot see it going higher than that.

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#7 User is offline   Illuyankas 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:40 AM

He meant 50% of us the forum members, not the US.
Hello, soldiers, look at your mage, now back to me, now back at your mage, now back to me. Sadly, he isn’t me, but if he stopped being an unascended mortal and switched to Sole Spice, he could smell like he’s me. Look down, back up, where are you? You’re in a warren with the High Mage your cadre mage could smell like. What’s in your hand, back at me. I have it, it’s an acorn with two gates to that realm you love. Look again, the acorn is now otataral. Anything is possible when your mage smells like Sole Spice and not a Bole brother. I’m on a quorl.
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#8 User is offline   HoosierDaddy 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:45 AM

If the U.S. met 20% unemployment figures... hell. We'd be approaching Marxian revolution numbers.
Trouble arrives when the opponents to such a system institute its extreme opposite, where individualism becomes godlike and sacrosanct, and no greater service to any other ideal (including community) is possible. In such a system rapacious greed thrives behind the guise of freedom, and the worst aspects of human nature come to the fore....
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#9 User is offline   Sindriss 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:48 AM

Well when he said us, I assumed he would be american and thus the us would be americans. The 20% was an absolutely max I would think might happen, although being unrealistic. I would more likely think 10-12% is more realistic at the end of the year.

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I would like to know if Steve have ever tasted anything like the quorl white milk, that knocked the bb's out.

A: Nope, but I gots me a good imagination.
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#10 User is offline   Skywalker 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 10:15 AM

Well, unemployment peaked at about 25% during the great depression.

Looking at the credit logjam, I wouldn't be surprised if we have another depression on our hands... don't know if it will be 'great' though
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#11 User is offline   dktorode 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 10:30 AM

Would this be considered a good time to buy stocks?
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#12 User is offline   HoosierDaddy 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 10:32 AM

I guess it would depend upon your economic status. If you are set for the foreseeable future, or your retirement isn't based around stocks, I'd imagine there are quite a few bargain values out there that I'd love to buy into.
Trouble arrives when the opponents to such a system institute its extreme opposite, where individualism becomes godlike and sacrosanct, and no greater service to any other ideal (including community) is possible. In such a system rapacious greed thrives behind the guise of freedom, and the worst aspects of human nature come to the fore....
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#13 User is offline   Anomander 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 02:10 PM

I'm quite pleased I'll be in school for the next 3ish years, hopefully by that point the economy will be rebounding. Although, even my schooling has been affected. From what I hear it's damn near impossible to get a co-op term in engineering and that's how I was hoping to pay for the last 2 years. I think at this point I'll need to resign myself to the fact I'll have a fair bit of debt upon exiting university.

Hell, I've noticed difficulty in just getting a part time position. I applied at a gas station (ie minimum wage), one of the busiest in my area, and I still haven't got a call. What's worse is that most of the new employees are in there 30s or 40s. A sad things indeed when people of that age group need to settle for minimum wage. :D
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#14 User is offline   Aptorian 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 05:03 PM

Anyone remember that sci-fi series with jessica alba, Dark Angel? That's how I imagine the US in 10 years :D

The economy in ruin and every state on the coasts looking like an african country, the government a big evil totalitarian thing.

I can't wait, the next step is of course the Zombie Apocalypse, ending when Will Smith invents a cure out a bag of orange peals, some silly string and blood from a dead woman.
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#15 User is offline   Slow Ben 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 06:06 PM

View Postdktorode, on Mar 4 2009, 04:30 AM, said:

Would this be considered a good time to buy stocks?


I dont know about stocks, but its a great time to buy real estate. I've bought a 2 houses and a duplex in the last year at WELL below market value. Now, as long as the economy doesn't completely crash...
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#16 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 06:25 PM

Houses? Why? I suppose with you bond market collapse, what were they thinking, it might be a good idea. However houses are just as likely to lose value as anything else. Stocks are proven to long term be the highest earners. I would buy, am buying. Buy from companies which wont dissapear though. Also its likely to go down more before it goes up. so wait a bit. Thas said it can also be a good idea o buy a little each month. It offsets the losses if it goes down when it starts going back up
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#17 User is offline   Slow Ben 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 06:31 PM

Its long term, just like stocks. Buy 20-30% below what they're worth, then wait till house prices are huge, just like they were about 5 years ago. You can also make instant money by renting them out the whole time, theres a ton of people wanting to rent right now.

I've been doing the same as you though Cause in the market as well, i'll buy whatever i can each month, but not so much as if i lose it i'm in trouble.
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#18 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:38 PM

lovely
I'm graduating in the spring

i'll be trying my earnest to get into some kind of grad school in a year or so. now's not the greatest time to enter the full-time workforce.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 04 March 2009 - 10:02 PM

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And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#19 User is offline   Cold Iron 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:53 PM

A month ago and I would have agreed with you guys saying buy up and we'll be out of it in a year or two, but something has happened since then, something big. The world's stimulous packages have failed.

Failed.

Markets are still collapsing, companies are still going under.

We just threw a big fuck load of cash at this and it did nothing.

Toyota just asked for a bail out. Toyota. If the worlds most successful car company is bankrupt then they're all fucked.

A big difference between this crash and the great depression was that the US could call in foreign debts in the 30s. This is part of what caused WWII because after the 29 crash US called in loans from Europe and in the first year Germany's unemployment went from 8% to 15%, and in the second year from 15% to 30%. This time the US has a foreign defecit. It owes money. And as the US GDP falls through the floor this money starts to look pretty hard to pay back.

The Bush fiscal policy of ignore things at home and make sure the oil price stays steady failed. Oil prices soared and now that they're back down again the world is left with the crippling afterblow. Everyone is blaming sub prime mortgages? What do you think were the factors contributing the the mass defaulting last year? Could it be the price of fuel almost doubling at the bowser? Go below the credit and the trading and the lawyers and the service economy and what drives all economies? Energy. But I've been told I'm wrong and that oil price had nothing to do with it and I'm not an economist so I'm not going to harp on about the cause.

I will harp on about the effects though. Australia is a resource based economy, we sell iron ore to China. China aren't buying, why? Because they are an export economy, they sell TVs to the US, but the US aren't buying TVs. Why? Because Bush spent 4 trillion on a war while his country borrowed money for their houses.

An entire generation of stock investors just lost their retirement funds, this means they won't be spending them on products made by the current work force. It also means they qualify for the pension that the government can't afford to pay. This was already a problem in Europe and China. What is it now?

Will you feel like paying your taxes when you also have to support your parents because their pension checks aren't arriving? What happens when people don't feel like paying taxes? Black market trade. Government revenue plunges and they can't afford things like hospitals and police force.

What happens when you don't have a job, your dad dies waiting for a hospital bed, your mum is living in your kids bedroom, your car just got stolen and spam goes back to being a food product and not an internet product?

Are we all sure this is going away in a year or two?

This post has been edited by Cold Iron: 04 March 2009 - 09:55 PM

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#20 User is offline   HoosierDaddy 

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Posted 04 March 2009 - 10:01 PM

From what I've read and seen, the economists say it isn't going away for awhile. However, they do hold out hope that we will begin to see a turnaround in 2010. Will that turnaround be abrupt and massive? Extremely unlikely, however, any positive signs are good.

Also: I wouldn't doom the stimulus packages just quite yet... give them a little more time, and hopefully we'll see the relaxing of credit.

This post has been edited by Inigo Montoya: 04 March 2009 - 10:02 PM

Trouble arrives when the opponents to such a system institute its extreme opposite, where individualism becomes godlike and sacrosanct, and no greater service to any other ideal (including community) is possible. In such a system rapacious greed thrives behind the guise of freedom, and the worst aspects of human nature come to the fore....
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