[Mentalist]

well, you can be opinionated all you want, but you should at least use corrwect definitions.

"debt will be new slavery" is the description of a corporatist police-state, which is a popular archetype of our grim future, but is in no way related to socialism.

btw, have you read "the shock doctrine?"

it sounds like a book you might like.

[Slow Ben]

 Nicodimas, on Apr 2 2009, 10:38 PM, said:

Heh I am just one man and my belief's are my own. I am going to be opionanted

Nic! Its good to know your a real person and not just a computer somewhere giving us information.

[Mentalist]

a computer would never have called socialism a "tyranny of the debt",

he's lucky TT hasn't seen this...

[Slow Ben]

It could be corrupted.

[Cold Iron]

 Nicodimas, on Apr 3 2009, 02:24 PM, said:

I disagree I think whoever these foreign countries that are doing this have to get rid of the highest human ideal.

Freedom.

If they can destroy this they can move foward. If not they will never pull it off. Basically the world is going to regress into a socialist hellhole. Debt will be the new Slavery.

Luckily free will exists so I think we will sort it out after a war or two.

I'm not sure what you're saying here.

Did you mean in order to move ahead of the US, foreign countries would have to destroy freedom? The US has a choice, go down now or go down later, but they are going down. The Eurozone already out produces the US and they have large growth potential in the Eastern block. China's and India's growth will only be slowed by resource shortages. The US has nothing to contribute beyond shonky banking.

[Mentalist]

CI, does US stil have any sizeable hi-tech sector?

i'm asking, because I'm pretty green when it comes to econ.
I know, of course that South East Asia has been growing rapidly in that sector, but does US really have nothing beyond services?

[HoosierDaddy]

 Mentalist, on Apr 3 2009, 12:57 AM, said:

CI, does US stil have any sizeable hi-tech sector?

i'm asking, because I'm pretty green when it comes to econ.
I know, of course that South East Asia has been growing rapidly in that sector, but does US really have nothing beyond services?

Nope. The U.S. is done. We're through. Might as well just up and disband the Union. All we do is eat fast-food, get fat, and then go to sleep.... Repeat. Nobody works here in a job other than service. No manufacturing at all. Nope. Zip. Taps is playing as I type this.

[Mentalist]

HD, I'm honestly not trying to stereotype.

at the very least you still got some car manufacturing in Detroit.

not to mention you've built railguns to put on your battleships--any nation that can do that's gotta have something going for them.

plus you got all those corn farmers....

[HoosierDaddy]

I wasn't saying you were stereotyping, Ment. Cold Iron is painting with some pretty broad brushes.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 03 April 2009 - 06:14 AM

[Cold Iron]

The sarcasm was directed at me mud.

As far as US manufacturing industries go, it's driven by internal trade, which falls over with the financials. Exports make up less than 10% of US GDP. 25% of which is cars, planes and electrical equipment, industries which all have serious problems.

 HoosierDaddy, on Apr 3 2009, 04:08 PM, said:

I wasn't say you were stereotyping. Cold Iron is painting with some pretty broad brushes, in fact, I'm quite amazed that an Australian would have better knowledge about the economy/employment sectors than I do, when it seems to be outside his field of expertise.

Who's claiming better knowledge? If you disagree, by all means do so.

This post has been edited by Cold Iron: 03 April 2009 - 05:36 AM

[Nicodimas]

Slow down there peeps.

I never said anything about not producing anything. The US has some of the best natural resources in world along with Canada. Also the worlds strongest military.

We have assests on our side that will aid our recovery. I am more worried about the new leader if this does occur. Far to many American's think socialism is the answer. Blah. Pick up a book and read about collectivization in 33 in ukraine please.

The Europeans will never get along to get past there indifference. Plus they are way more forked if the dollar goes down then us.

I don't claim to know what the hell is going on exactly, just theorize and it sounds preety damn good.


Damnit I was hoping this was getting better actually..650k jobs lost last month...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Layoffs-rise...f-14839087.html

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 03 April 2009 - 05:52 AM

[Cold Iron]

I did. Well, I didn't, but I said the US has nothing to contribute beyond shonkey banking, which is not true. But the US share of the global economy is way overinflated due to services. Take this away and the US becomes a country slightly larger than Europe, with similar infrastructure and half the population. This should mean the true value of the US economy has gotta be at most 70% of what it is now.

[Nicodimas]

I am always looking for good books to read for those that our still on this section.

Some more for you all:

Where there is no doctor.
Where there is no dentist.
The Zombie Survival Guide.
SAS Survival Guide.
When Technology Fails.
FM 7-8

your favorite fantasy series of course.

A good book on a long collapse is

World Made by Hand.
http://www.amazon.com/World-Made-James-How...r/dp/0871139782

Really looking for some good articles to balance out my opionion all this doom and gloom is getting to me. I am starting to grow a wee bit pessimstic.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 03 April 2009 - 06:17 AM

[Mentalist]

 Nicodimas, on Apr 3 2009, 01:42 AM, said:

Slow down there peeps.

I never said anything about not producing anything. The US has some of the best natural resources in world along with Canada. Also the worlds strongest military.

We have assests on our side that will aid our recovery. I am more worried about the new leader if this does occur. Far to many American's think socialism is the answer. Blah. Pick up a book and read about collectivization in 33 in ukraine please.

The Europeans will never get along to get past there indifference. Plus they are way more forked if the dollar goes down then us.

I don't claim to know what the hell is going on exactly, just theorize and it sounds preety damn good.


Damnit I was hoping this was getting better actually..650k jobs lost last month...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Layoffs-rise...f-14839087.html

well, if you want to get REALLY pessimistic, a recurrent theme in Russian sci-fi is a "Muslim European Union"
i'm sure they'd have all the motivation in the world,

[Use Of Weapons]

Has anyone read Graham Turner's 'The Credit Crunch'? He draws parallels between the current worsening crisis and the Japanese credit disaster and collapse of their housing bubble in the 80s and 90s (yes, decades long, from they are only now recovering). Some of the mistakes made by the Japanese government in dealing with their problem are frighteningly like the actions being taken by current governments around the world -- bailouts, liquidity injections, and the like. However, the main problem with Japan was that the government/central bank failed to lower interest rates quickly enough or soon enough. (Eventually they were forced by the liquidity trap to lower them to 0%, and may at points have gone into negative inflation.)

But the real problem, and the underlying cause behind the current bubbles, he maintains, is corporate globalisation. Moving workforces into cheaper economies, which try to stay attractive by lowering taxes and not instituting worker rights; keeping the balance of trade positive by artificially depressing their currency through the purchase of huge stocks of dollars (and now euros); which leads directly to huge debt-driven economies, housing bubbles, and the problems we are now seeing.

Very interesting reading. I recommend it to everyone.

[Mentalist]

i'm unsure where, but that came up somewhere on this baord I think. and the Japanese exaplewas brought up as well.

[frookenhauer]

1200 hours and all's well!

[Nicodimas]

We have problems houston! CDS said a 5% default would be the maximum for each fund. In a normal market the default rate is 1%. Or well was...


From http://www.cnbc.com/id/30089323

Quote

Foreclosures Worsen, Blocking Recovery
Posted By: Diana Olick
Topics:Interest Rates | Housing | Real Estate
Sectors:Financial Services | Construction and Materials
I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it every day: Until the number of foreclosures in this country starts to go down instead of up, we will not see a full recovery in the housing market; I don’t care how upbeat you are about buyer traffic this spring.

A new report out today shows foreclosures continue to rise.



Equifax, a well-respected credit bureau, found that 7% of homeowners with mortgages that were at least 30 days late on their payments in February, that’s up 50% from a year ago. And close to 40% of subprime borrowers are late, up from 23.7% a year ago.
Then I get an email from mortgage guru Mark Hansen of the Field Check Group, who tells me that foreclosures are about to soar in California near-term:

For months prior to March, banks/servicers were on and off of foreclosure moratoria with many on a complete hold awaiting Pres. Obama’s plan to save the housing market and homeowners. We track each foreclosure start through the entire foreclosure process individually and in aggregate - also by originator and servicer - and as soon as the Obama plan was made known, banks/servicer shifted their Notice-of-Default and Notice-of-Trustee Sale machines into overdrive. Foreclosure start (NOD) and Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are going out at levels not seen since mid 2008. Once an NTS goes out, the property is taken to the courthouse and auctioned within 21-45 days.

On top of that, my colleague Jane Wells is out in the foreclosure capital of the world today, Stockton, CA, and while she reports good news that houses there are finally selling, the bad news, she says is that more and more as major lenders seek out troubled borrowers for modifications, that find, “the people are gone. Even if they’ve not been foreclosed on yet!”

Not good. With job numbers getting worse, more and more borrowers are going to end up missing payments, and no matter how much the banks and the Obama administration would like to help these folks, you can’t modify a loan down to a zero monthly payment.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 07 April 2009 - 05:49 PM

[Cold Iron]

And the market is down due to poor first quarter from energy sector.

[Ectemnius]

Well, I am and ever will be opposed to Kapitalism. It has caused the current state of the world economy.

It is a system of perpetual growth. Ever producing more to fill the gap of the collective debt of the planet. Ever producing more means more pressure on the resources of the planet and a ever growing population.
Kapitalism is a unstable system. Because to ever produce more, one takes risks. Then add corruption and there you have it. It all goes to hell when 'someone pushes the wrong button at the wrong time.'

If you want to run a stable society one should employ a stable economical system, yes?

(nice to see such a topic in a fantasy book forum)