[Gothos]

what concerns me is... where is all that money going? it doesn't just evaporate, someone somewhere is getting really fat on this

[Nicodimas]

Hoosier-Relax I on a message board on the net. I am just linking someone elses thoughts. No biggie.Denniger has stated the more people that know after the collapse has happened they will know why.

Quote

Oh, this is not good.

Go read the latest AIG Ticker again. Specifically, this paragraph:

As with the phony reinsurance contracts that AIG and other insurers wrote for decades, when AIG wrote hundreds of billions of dollars in CDS contracts, neither AIG nor the counterparties believed that the CDS would ever be paid. Indeed, one source with personal knowledge of the matter suggests that there may be emails and actual side letters between AIG and its counterparties that could prove conclusively that AIG never intended to pay out on any of its CDS contracts.

Now consider this.

There is some gross "notional" (or face) value of $683.7 trillion dollars outstanding as of the end of June 08 (last data available.)

The lions share of those are not "CDS" on individual names or CDOs like what is going on here with AIG. They are instead interest-rate and/or FX products of one sort or another; $458 trillion worth.

If even a couple of percent of those swaps are in fact "private lettered" out in the fashion that AIG is alleged to have done with their CDS.....

(Hint: This is how "notional" amounts end up becoming realized losses!)

Our Congress had better dig into this hornets nest right damn now because if in fact there is any material amount of this crap going on in the OTC derivative market the $170+ billion blown on AIG trying to cover it up will be a mosquito on an elephant's ass in comparison to what's about to happen to the world's economy and banking system.

If, in fact, it cannot be proved that this is not the case, given the extraordinary lengths that both government and private parties have gone to in order to cover up what IRA alleges AIG was actually up to, we must ring-fence and cut off any part of the financial system impacted by a potential detonation of that market right now, including the US Federal Government, as such a detonation will, if it occurs, destroy any part of the financial system it infests at the time the unwind occurs.

No I'm not kidding.

This really is that serious and the extreme measures taken to attempt to hide this, assuming the IRA article is correct, implies strongly that there is a lot more of this going on that we're simply unaware of.

Yet.

From http://market-ticker.denninger.net/


Again people this not happening tomorrow what Derringer is talking about but over the next 1-3 years. Though he prefaces many times that it could unravel as SOON as tomorrow.

His website is for history after it happens so people can go back and see all the wrong things that are going on! (Bit narcisstic I know)

Read it with a open mind as most will outright reject it, I realize as everything is just fine while rome is burning.

( Wars start over this and probably will)

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 02 April 2009 - 06:46 PM

[frookenhauer]

Righty ho! The world as we know it is about to blow! NOT!

2200 hours and alls well!!

[Cold Iron]

Another big day of gains on the US tolls.

If we see another week of gains I think it's safe to start assuming the worst is past for now. Good luck with your investments, frook.

[Nicodimas]

The Quadrillion Dollar Question:

Quote

As the April G20 summit in London approaches, it is worth noting that the trans-national play of derivatives has grown from USD 1.144 Quadrillion to USD 1.405 Quadrillion, ie, +22% worldwide. This is a staggering increase and most of it is seen in the Over-The-Counter (OTC) category as opposed to exchange traded derivatives. As a result, the global size of the derivatives bubble which was calculated last year at USD 190k per person-on-planet, has risen to USD 206k per person-on-planet. The ever rising commitment of governments for the repeated bailouts of financial institutions is partially linked to various flavours of derivatives exposure settlements and “black hole” losses emanating from off-balance-sheet vehicles.

The traditional argument has been to discount derivatives altogether: “On one side of the equation there is a loss, on the other side there is a gain. Nothing disappears. It is just one big shuffle of wealth and assets.” However, if this is the case, why has the US tax-payer had to bail out AIG repeatedly in excess of a hundred and fifty billion dollars so that AIG could settle the Credit Default Swap (CDS) and other derivatives claims of the largest trans-national financial institutions in the world?

In the ATCA briefing, "The Invisible One Quadrillion Dollar Equation" published in September 2008 we discussed the main categories of the quadrillion dollar derivatives market as quoted by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Since then the quantum has grown significantly in certain crucial categories and the latest revised numbers follow:

1. Listed credit derivatives stood at USD 542 trillion, about the same as before; however

2. Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives stood in notional or face value at USD 863 trillion (UP +44%) and include:

a. Interest Rate Derivatives at about USD 458+ trillion (UP +16%);
b. Credit Default Swaps at about USD 57+ trillion (DOWN -1%);
c. Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 62+ trillion (UP +10%);
d. Commodity Derivatives at about USD 13+ trillion (UP +44%);
e. Equity Linked Derivatives at about USD 10+ trillion (UP +17%); and
f. Unallocated Derivatives at about USD 81+ trillion (UP +14%).

From http://ow.ly/1Kpc

Quote

The myth of the single bubble behind The Great Unwind -- manifest as the global credit crunch -- has essentially been dumped in the last few months and subprime mortgage default, a USD 1.5 trillion challenge within the USD 5 trillion mortgage based assets envelope, is seen as a component of a much larger overwhelming global crisis with unprecedented scale, speed, severity and synchronicity. The global crisis has wiped a staggering USD 50 trillion off the value of financial assets — currency, equity and bond markets worldwide — last year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

The truth that there are as many as "Eight Bubbles" [ATCA] at play and in the process of bursting together is understood to a greater extent now than in the past. We have gone from being able to “rescue the world” with less than USD 1 trillion in October 2008 to USD 11.6 trillion commitments in the US alone along with a further announcement of USD 1.2 trillion of quantitative easing by the US Fed in March 2009. There is a realisation worldwide including the G7 + BRIC + MISSAT that this is a USD 20 trillion problem and growing. As time goes by, the full extent of the collateral damage from the Quadrillion Play and 8 Bubbles burst is being revealed.

The bursting process is taking the form of deleverage on an unprecedented scale. Even 1929 pales in comparison because the industrial production collapse witnessed over five successive years in the 1930s in the US is now taking place in five to six months, most notably in Japan. At a follow on recent ATCA roundtable we posed the following questions for Socratic dialogue:

I. If the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen from above 14,000 to below 7,500 as a result of some of the 8 bubbles collapsing, ie a 6,500 points drop or 46% decline, where will the equities market reach by 2010 as other larger bubbles burst?

II. If the world government bond market is around USD 35 trillion, how can governments rescue the eight bubbles bursting step by step with an ever larger quantum and momentum?

III. How can Quantitative Easing (QE) defy the laws of financial gravity without devaluing paper currencies significantly?

IV. What ought to be the focus at the G20 Summit in April to bring about stability in regard to the rising derivatives exposures and use of off-balance-sheet vehicles?

We discussed “Eight Bubbles” in play worldwide in November 2008 and their approximate scale, based on latest information in 2009, is as follows:

1. Subprime Mortgage linked Loans & Assets (USD 1.5 trillion) within Mortgage backed Assets (USD 5 trillion);
2. China, India, Eastern Europe and other Emerging Market Loans (USD 5 trillion);
3. Commodities (Commodity Derivatives at about USD 13 trillion);
4. Corporate bonds (USD 18 trillion);
5. Commercial (USD 22 trillion) and Residential property (USD 45 trillion);
6. Credit Cards Outstanding Debt (USD 4.5 trillion);
7. Currencies (Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 62 trillion); and
8. Credit Default Swaps (USD 57 trillion) as a subset of all Derivatives (USD 1,405 Trillion).

The relative scale of the world's financial engine is as follows:

1. The entire GDP of the US is about USD 14 trillion and falling.
2. The entire US money supply is also about USD 14 trillion with rising Quantitative Easing in trillions.
3. The GDP of the entire world is USD 45 trillion and falling. USD 1,405 trillion is 31 times world GDP.
4. The real estate of the entire world is valued at about USD 65 trillion.
5. The world stock and bond markets are valued at about USD 70 trillion.
6. The trans-national universal model financial institutions own about USD 150 trillion in derivatives.
7. The population of the whole planet is 6.8 billion people. So the derivatives market represents about USD 206,000 per person on the planet.

Assuming a 10% conservative default or decline in asset value, this could be a USD 100 trillion challenge on the base of a Quadrillion. USD 50 trillion of asset decline is already manifest. What are the likely outcomes? "Four Scenarios” have already been suggested by ATCA. We are keen to receive your answers and solutions. Please note that the numbers quoted are a rough guide.

from http://ow.ly/1Kpc


So how confortable to do you feel? Bubbles got to be poped from time to time.

[Cold Iron]

Hence the no holds barred bail outs. The house of cards cannot be allowed to collapse. Ever. We will bail it out at any cost and be doing the right thing.

This post has been edited by Cold Iron: 03 April 2009 - 02:18 AM

[Mentalist]

by making such statements, you are simply encouraging people in position of influence to play stupid again for short term gains, since "the governments will HAVE to bail us out, no matter how bad we screw up".


It still amazes how none of the people, who as everyone knows are guilty of criminal negligence, are being paid their bonuses instead of being sent to jail where they belong.

[Cold Iron]

The US will never recover from the collapse that it is building itself up to. A different country or region will rebuild the world economy and take humanity to new heights. Knowing this, why shouldn't the US squeeze every last day out of it's time in the sun? The only thing that is gained by allowing the collapse to happen early is that it will make it that much easier for China or India or whoever the new world leaders will be. Sure this will mean that on the back of this, things will be better sooner in the US too, but they will never be as good as they are now, whilst they are on top.

[Mentalist]

great, why must the economy collapse just as I'm about to graduate?

[Slow Ben]

It wont.

[Cold Iron]

There may be decades more bullshit backhanded economics that can extend the good times, but it is too late to go back to a healthy economy, collapse may not be imminent, but it is inevitable.

[Slow Ben]

You may be right, im not an expert on this stuff.

But do you mean full scale fire and brimstone, dogs and cats living together collapse or what?

[Nicodimas]

Quote

be doing the right thing

We have a president and congress that support the banks.

It's never the "right" thing for goverment to abuse there power's and placing us into a situation we are so debted that it's citizens will be slaves to OTHER nations. The people doing this our traitors to America. They will be fine and most likely move to which ever country is great <Ever see Bush's ranch in South America??>

http://www.indybay.o...19/18321646.php

Think about what your leaders are doing to you the taxpayer. There ripping you off and destroying America to make a NEW power. It never ceases to amaze me and I hope the countries that are behind this are realized...its a economic war and it just started.

100 billion was sent out of country in the AIG.
2 trillion was unaccounted for.

Yet we the taxpayer have to pay it back? What happens when they send another 12 trillion to people in other countries you have to pay for? This money is being siphoned by a few people right now..

2 Results
1) America a third world nation indebted < this has happened many times see Argentina>
2) Civil War/Global War.

Our forefather were smart people:

Quote

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

-Jefferson


We are watching history folks. People won't trust politics for a long time after this.

[Mentalist]

I think it'll depend on how much you are tied to the economy.

ironically, while the future may be bleak, I'm in a position where I have little to lose, because I have so little.

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on Apr 2 2009, 11:05 PM, said:

Quote

be doing the right thing

We have a president and congress that support the banks.

It's never the "right" thing for goverment to abuse there power's and placing us into a situation we are so debted that it's citizens will be slaves to OTHER nations. The people doing this our traitors to America. They will be fine and most likely move to which ever country is great <Ever see Bush's ranch in South America??>

http://www.indybay.o...19/18321646.php

Think about what your leaders are doing to you the taxpayer. There ripping you off and destroying America to make a NEW power. It never ceases to amaze me and I hope the countries that are behind this are realized...its a economic war and it just started.

100 billion was sent out of country in the AIG.
2 trillion was unaccounted for.

Yet we the taxpayer have to pay it back? What happens when they send another 12 trillion to people in other countries you have to pay for? This money is being siphoned by a few people right now..

2 Results
1) America a third world nation indebted < this has happened many times see Argentina>
2) Civil War/Global War.

Our forefather were smart people:

Quote

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

-Jefferson


We are watching history folks. People won't trust politics for a long time after this.

ROFL

this is so reminiscent of home....

[Cold Iron]

Slow Ben, on Apr 3 2009, 02:04 PM, said:

But do you mean full scale fire and brimstone, dogs and cats living together collapse or what?

I mean people in the US living in conditions like people in SA have to deal with now.

Nicodimas, on Apr 3 2009, 02:05 PM, said:

It's never the "right" thing for goverment to abuse there power's and placing us into a situation we are so debted that it's citizens will be slaves to OTHER nations. The people doing this our traitors to America.

Like I said, what difference if the collapse happens now or in 10 years? The US will never crawl it's way back to the top because it only got there in the first place through slavery and oil, both of which are gone.

[Nicodimas]

I disagree I think whoever these foreign countries that are doing this have to get rid of the highest human ideal.

Freedom.

If they can destroy this they can move foward. If not they will never pull it off. Basically the world is going to regress into a socialist hellhole. Debt will be the new Slavery.

Luckily free will exists so I think we will sort it out after a war or two.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 03 April 2009 - 03:25 AM

[Mentalist]

Well, they could take steps to soften the blow right now.

instead they are bailing out people and saying everything's gonna be all right, so that instead of a gradual worsening of conditions they are settin the people up for a momentous downfall.

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on Apr 2 2009, 11:24 PM, said:

I disagree I think whoever these foreign countries that are doing this have to get rid of the highest human ideal.

Freedom.

If they can destroy this they can move foward. If not they will never make it the way. Basically the world is going to regress into a socialist hellhole. Debt will be the new Slavery.

"socialist hellhole?"

umm, socialism eliminates debt.
in fact, the forced levelling of the playing field eliminates the concept of debt.

[Nicodimas]

Heh I am just one man and my belief's are my own. I am going to be opionanted

http://www.lewrockwe...ves/026165.html

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 03 April 2009 - 03:40 AM