[Sinisdar Toste]

being a canadian, i know that our government and economy is nearly as crooked and screwed over as the USA's has become. luckily we have a land rich in resources and energy, manitoba- where i live- for one produces enough hydro power to feed itself one and a half times over. the north of alberta and saskatchewan contains the 'oil sands' where there is tons of oil sitting under the ground just waiting for us to figure out how to get at it. and lets not even talk about the billions that the province of BC and canada in general could make if marijuana was legal like it should be.

our creative industries are on the rise, were diverse, were inclusive and we have a lot of open, unused land

i believe the canadian economy is well equipped to weather this storm. now if we could just get harper out of office...

This post has been edited by Sinisdar Toste: 07 March 2009 - 03:03 AM

[Nicodimas]

Directed @ Frooenhauer.

Im right with you just the last week has been ugly! So I a bit understandly ticked.

Why aren't these problems being addressed is my big thing. The market is tearing itself to shreads and it happening quickly. If you look at these put/short posistions that I am seeing creaping up GE/Boeing could be lost next week alone. This is serious shit. The media is looking at the wrong problems. Less concentration on the party battles. Good god who cares what party did what! The damage is done and in the past! Who is gaining from these option trading is what people should be asking.

Why are other companies allowed to do put/shorts of other companies in these numbers. Billons of dollars of leverage hammering the stock toward worthlessness. It is market cannilbalism and is downright immoral on a unheard level!! I fully a supporter of the free market, but this is horrifying.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 07 March 2009 - 04:46 AM

[Urb]

Sinisdar Toste, on Mar 7 2009, 04:01 AM, said:

being a canadian, i know that our government and economy is nearly as crooked and screwed over as the USA's has become. luckily we have a land rich in resources and energy...

I would think the US has even more resources and energy, no?
And a population (workforce) at least 10 times that of Canada.

It all boils down to bad politics, so be sure to vote for the guys you think will do the best job.

[frookenhauer]

Nic - They are being addressed, but not one thing at a time, the programs that are being put in place work for the whole of the economy, which normally it regulates itself, but a series of short sharp shocks to the system (some of which could have been avoided, CDs etc) have taken the behemoth off course. I am of the opinion that what the government is doing is enough, because to go too far would tip the boat, too little and they are just pissing in the wind in the wrong direction. What they are doing is providing stimulus and that is the key. There is no point just printing money and throwing it at the system or just concentrating on what some of the pundits reckon is the big issue. And this may come as a surprise , but sometimes the best bet is to do nothing... (I know this is pretty much what THEY say, but its true!)

The real big issue for the whole world right now is confidence, both in the market and all else. I have it, cos I know the rules (mostly), and barring another massive set of catastrophes we are going to be back on track within a couple of years. So I'm putting my hard earned into the market cos I want to make some real money.

For those that want to benefit in three years time. read the following while following the market. also there is a free investing program where you can practice trading with real values over on Blue Index Research Investing website. LINKY

Also read these books:

A random walk down wall street. Burton G Malkiel . I've almost finished it and its a good primer for the whole investing thingy.
The Intelligent Investor. Benjamin Graham. This is THE definitive guide to the markets and investing and is next up.
The Naked trader. Robbie Burns. Dude leaves the city rat race and self invests and makes a mint and tells you how to do it and I'll be finishing this...

By the time the new Tax year starts and I set up a self select ISA. An opportunity like the one we are presented with comes but rarely. Don't let the doomsayers spoil it for you

[Thelomen Toblerone]

Inigo Montoya, on Mar 4 2009, 09:45 AM, said:

If the U.S. met 20% unemployment figures... hell. We'd be approaching Marxian revolution numbers.

No way, figures are at that level in East Germany and have been for some time (in many areas it's over 50% unemployment), and there's been no revolution there. Mind, they were in a communist state less than 20 years ago. I've read alot of reports stating the impact of unemployment amongst society, particularly the impact it has on the children of unemployed parents and subsequent negative social impact for years to come. So I'd be more worried about that. A country with social breakdown and easy access to guns is somewhat concerning.

But with any luck, your nation will lead the way to the revolution, and the change from a global capitalist system to a new glorious socialist order.

[Nicodimas]

Once the welfare state is taken to it knees expect ugliness. I fully expect this to go south real quic IF a catastrophic market change happens. No I completely disagree with anyone on how the money Obama and Crew has spent all the trillions in a couple of months. We are on pace to spend 10 Trillion dollars since Sept. Let that sink in as people used to complain about the cost of the recent wars. That will be the most ironic thing about those they will seem like deals now. Most of this money will have been lost, but its okay we will pay for it later. Let historians judge there actions as this period may be studied if this becomes part of a supercycle in economics. That will also mean the economy in America will roughly be back to 2007 levels by 2031. Food for thought. Again we aren't there yet, but if the nasdaq hits five hundred that is the event horizon.

The next couple of months are critical and they cannot let these crooks wreak this level of destruction for there own personal immoral gains. My belief is the goverment should enforce LAWS on the market, not step into the market and play around with it. Let it run free, but curb criminal greed harshly.
http://www.youtube.c...h?v=rH6_i8zuffs

^ It will probably look like that. It may be to late as we already forked over the money <power> to the policticians.

Remember the big companies haven't declared bankrupcies, expect the media to do its thing and watch the market get crushed that day. I guess they could nationalize everything....hello USSA that day.


The big thing is Europe has experienced war in it's recent history on it soil. America hasn't for a very long time and loves to fight. I haven't seen the warning signs, besides the rise in robberies-which is probably normal at time like this.
On a side note:

Quote

"You cannot invade mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind each blade of grass."

-Admiral Yamamoto


I am glad this got leaked.... /sigh. The media doing its thing as usual.

Quote

Sources close to the White House say Mr Obama and his staff have been "overwhelmed" by the economic meltdown and have voiced concerns that the new president is not getting enough rest.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...rdon-Brown.html

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 08 March 2009 - 01:54 AM

[Cold Iron]

Our political system is such that natural market downturns have been artificially suppressed to be dealt with at a later time. That time has come. We have not hit bottom yet, more big losses will be announced, each one will shock markets.

[frookenhauer]

Its good to see people being so positive

[Mentalist]

frook, it's always best to be a total pessimist--you'll then be pleasantly surprised much more often than a positive-thinking person.

[frookenhauer]

With regards to the present crisis...I know that its all happened before and will happen again and we'll be out of it in a year and no amount of crying and tearing your hair out and blaming the administration and reaching boiling point is going to make a blind bit of difference.

Having a positive outlook on life means that you look on difficult situations differently to others. One the one hand you have Nic, nice kid, very enthusiatic, but very pessimistic about things and justsees doom and gloom and death and dismemberment. On the other hand you have me, greying and getting rounder, but with a positive attitude who sees a real investment opportunity in these hard times. I'll stick with being positive dude

[Shinrei]

History teaches us that recessions and full blown depressions are a just a part of the cycle. I think it's reasonable that any particular generation will experience a couple of recessions and one depression. Just as I also think its reasonable that things eventually right themselves.

I'm a doom and gloom pessimist on the market as it stands for the next few years, and think the problems could last a decade or more - much longer than a lot of so called experts predict the trouble will last. However, even I don't believe this will devolve into anarchy and major warfare as nicodemus is suggesting. Things will certainly "Change" though!

[Cold Iron]

There are certain industries that will obviously not recover in anything like the original form as they have previously existed. Automotive is the most obvious one and most global. This industry has been running on fumes (thank you) for the past decade. Things will change drastically.

This will have a smaller knock-on effect on petroleum industry and transport industry and raw materials industry.

The credit industry and property development industry will also undergo dramatic overhauls in the united states at least.

[Urb]

Isn't it strange that each generation has to learn this stuff by screwing up?
Why can't they just learn from history?

[frookenhauer]

That would be too easy Urb...

This time people went doolally over CDS' cos its as safe as houses, init, securitisation is foolproof...until you get a house price crash...before that you had the dotcom bubble...reaching all the way back to the tulip craze back when noblemen could run you over with a horse and get away with it the great depression also had its own craze as well, the details are fuzzy, but I reckon there were a batch of companies shares that were achieving huge growth in values... The mentality is simple...Even if I buy this at an exorbitant price, some other person is going to pay more for it down the line...Its like a fever.

I just noticed something, Nic, you are pointing out that put options are evil...Its a straightforward bet when used fairly, there is nothing intrinsically wrong with put options at all. Its like saying swords or guns are evil. Or even a pen, cos its mightier...Its just a financial instrument.

oh and if you guys think that everything will be different after all this...history shows us that it WILL all happen again, but in slightly different circumstances

[Urb]

Well, you got me there. I still think they should have been prepared for it though. The housing prices were getting ridiculously high.

[Shinrei]

@ Urb, some were/are prepared for it.

Economies cannot grow indefinately, and greed, although a factor, isn't the only reason why these dips happen.

[Slow Ben]

Just to throw in a little something here. Not all industries are struggling. My family owns a NAPA auto parts and with all the auto industries failing and people not having a lot of money, the auto repair industries are doing very well, at least around here. They're busier than they've every been. So are all the mechanics and dealer shops around here.

Its not the same as a healthy auto industry, but its something.

[Nicodimas]

Its cyclical and will of course happen again. People are extemely smart. Greed is a an extreme motivator. Combine the two capitalism works real well until certain drops and it goes poorly.

On Irony:
http://www.investope...s/03/071603.asp

^Sounds Familar huh?

Yeah I am quite sure we are in a period where we a have an economic supercycle. I see no problem with this as I welcome a cut of 50-70% of the .Gov's budget across the board. Make it as small as possible as we can. I figure this will end Social security, medicare, and all the welfare programs. If the pre-existing corporate world takes a wipe of 90% this will allow some new companies and innovations to occur I all for it. The strong will survive this and weak will be pushed aside.

This could be great if people want to work with the changes as they come.

[Obdigore]

Nicodimas, on Mar 9 2009, 03:00 PM, said:

Yeah I am quite sure we are in a period where we a have an economic supercycle. I see no problem with this as I welcome a cut of 50-70% of the .Gov's budget across the board. Make it as small as possible as we can. I figure this will end Social security, medicare, and all the welfare programs.

You mean like schooling?

It is a form of welfare.

Look out, a piece of sky is going to hit you on the head!

[frookenhauer]

I'm not entirely convinced by supercycles, the mathematics involved to be able to predict how markets will function in 60 years time...Sounds a bit hokum to me...More a case of looking at statistics and finding a pattern where none exists...Although I do like the Schumpeter-Freeman-Perez Paradigm:

* The Industrial Revolution—1771
* The Age of Steam and Railways—1829
* The Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering—1875
* The Age of Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production—1908
* The Age of Information and Telecommunications—1971

One yet to come, but again...you're really stretching credibility as to when the actual revolutions really took off.

With regards to the Health and welfare system...I think you'll find that Obamaman is determined to have his wicked way with the USA and give em what they need.

Shin..If you're listening, I was wrong about the idea to axe health and welfare...But it is because of Obama and nout else. I really hope he doesn't see this admission...