Malazan Empire: Grief - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

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User is offline Mar 11 2022 12:18 AM
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Prophet of High House Mafia
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  1. In Topic: How's your sleep?

    11 March 2022 - 12:18 AM

    I fee like I'm stuck a bit of a vicious cycle recently. I work long hours > I stay up longer to get some me time > I don't get enough sleep > I'm not that efficient at work > I work long hours.

    So overall my sleep is bad and I'd like to improve it in theory but I suck at that in practice.
  2. In Topic: US Policy--Russia Interests

    11 March 2022 - 12:12 AM

    View PostGarak, on 10 March 2022 - 07:54 PM, said:

    I'm just glad to hear my countrymen are welcoming the refugees at the border, though I wonder how long that will last.


    It's an interesting political switch amongst many. I have some optimism that it will last (if not that it will spread to other groups).

    EU politics on several major topics have shifted practically overnight: from the climate transition to security to refugees. I suspect it practically guarantees Macron's re-election too. But harder to say for the likes of Orban.
  3. In Topic: US Policy--Russia Interests

    28 February 2022 - 02:31 AM

    As warfare becomes more and more mechanised, the line between "providing equipment" and "direct intervention" feels blurrier and blurrier.

    I am not really sure where I see that line myself.

    I feel like we're living in a sort of grey zone time period, where there is still some kind of meaningful difference -- sending drones has not totally replaced sending troops -- but it is not nearly as big a difference as it used to be. Ten years from now I suspect that the difference between sending equipment and direct intervention will have more or less vanished because they'll be much the same thing in practice.

    And these supplies certainly seem to be putting Russia in a difficult position at the moment.
  4. In Topic: US Policy--Russia Interests

    26 February 2022 - 01:44 AM

    View PostMalankazooie, on 24 February 2022 - 08:40 PM, said:

    What amount of sanctions have been placed on Russia in the past? How effective were they? And how much more (by analysis calling next shots) will upcoming sanctions have an impact (and how many more will be drawn up)? Asking, because it doesn't seem like this approach has really budged Putin.



    View PostTiste Simeon, on 25 February 2022 - 02:59 PM, said:

    Whether this will make a difference or but who knows but the UCL final has been changed from Russia and the Russian Grand Prix is cancelled/moved too.

    Like I said I'm not sure it'll do much but these will hit Russia economically and I reckon that's going to do more than NATO posturing...


    I would not not expect sanctions to make much difference to the reality on the ground in Ukraine in the near future. That's not really what sanctions are aimed at doing.

    If sanctions were going to make Putin budge any time soon then he just wouldn't have invaded in the first place. It was essentially guaranteed that Russia would be hit with sanctions for invading Ukraine, and Putin surely knew that in advance. You don't budge for measures that you always knew were coming.

    Sanctions aren't a foreign pool for making change happen overnight on the ground. They are a tool for putting pressure on the leadership of a country over a longer time period. The big question is the one hinted at by Tapper: how long does the West actually stick with the sanctions?

    It's a sad reality. The positive side is that it means you can ignore some of the worry I'm seeing elsewhere online that sanctions have not reversed the invasion in a matter of days, meaning therefore they must be ineffective. It doesn't mean they're weak as sanctions go, or that Russia has some kind of "get out of sanctions free" card, this just isn't what sanctions are meant to achieve in the first place. The sanctions have been relatively tough and I expect them to get more severe in the coming days.
  5. In Topic: US Policy--Russia Interests

    26 February 2022 - 01:10 AM

    View PostTapper, on 25 February 2022 - 08:35 PM, said:

    View PostCause, on 25 February 2022 - 05:01 PM, said:

    What’s the long term play here:

    Russia takes Kyiv and the Ukraine… okay so we sanction them. Do they just accept sanctions for the next few decades? Ukrainians clearly don’t want them, so do they murder Russian soldiers in the streets for the next few years? How does Russia plan to occupy the whole country and for how long?

    Is their plan to create a puppet government and leave? Get Donbas and the Crimea on paper in exhange for giving the test back?

    Well, the pattern so far is 1-3 years of sanctions and then rolling them back gradually until Putin does another land grab. Before Crimea it was Georgia, for example.
    Imho, he doesn't grab Ukraine to make it an equal part of his idea of Greater Russia. Instead, he'll ouppet it, silence whomever could unite the people, hand the natural resources to his cronies for extraction, let corruption run rife, let the economy crash and voila, a Belarus style buffer state.


    I think Ukraine will be different to Georgia for a few reasons. We can see already a different political reaction and social outcry.

    Sanctions are essentially a long-game. There is a (valid) complaint that Russia's energy sector is not being targeted immediately with sanctions. However, I think we will see a much stronger drive in Europe, including countries like Germany, to reduce energy dependence on Russia. We've already seen some statements to that end and I think they're actually serious about it.

    Part of the long game is the sanctions and the energy mix is another part. It's obviously doubtful whether Europe is ready to stop Russian gas overnight but its clearly on the cards as a longer term goal. And that hurts, especially if Russia struggle to modernise their economy in the meantime which the sanctions will clearly exacerbate.

    (By the way I would agree on the puppet-state point).

    Also it probably goes without saying but fuck this all. I hope that those of you with real connections to Ukraine are doing whatever constitutes as OK in a situation like this.