Malazan Empire: Grief - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

They have a lot in common.

Orban has been the most prominent one, but unfortunately there have always been at laest two or three similar European leaders covering each other's back. It's a big reason why it's been so hard to take action against any one of them.

If it hadn't Orban then over the past decade then it would have variously been Slovakia, Romania, the Czech Republic, or others.

I don't see a blockade being very decisive, the Iranian regime has survived worse, though it's hard to ever know what might be the final straw.

The US couldn't risk the possibility that Iran could dictate who got through the Strait. It feels like they're making this move from necessity more than anything. Blockading it doubles down on making the war into everyone else's problem without any clear solution in sight. The Trump administration seems to be stuck continuing to escalate by default and hoping will solve the problem, but it has not done the trick so far. That's a path which could get the US really bogged down in the region.

It will be very interesting to see if anyone decides to test the blockade.

Meanwhile, the US is on a May deadline for the War Powers Resolution. Congress hasn't shown any interest in checking the President to date but the war is unpopular and mid-terms are looming, so you have to wonder if some Republicans might break ranks over it. It wouldn't take many.

I tend not to read too much into analysis - like Professor Thompson's above - that slathers the US administration with this deep strategic brush that typically doesn't stand up to what you can see with your own eyes. It's a kind of sane-washing that I've found is very common in political science circles where people want or get paid to have smart things to say.

Was the closure of the Strait a strategic feature a few days back when they were demanding it's re-opening? Is tanking their domestic and international popularity part of the strategy? What about the major negative consequences for America's own data centre ambitions?

Or can we just admit that the obvious answer - that the war has been poorly thought out and that they didn't expect the Iranian regime to resist this effectively - is probably the correct one. You know, the interpretation that's also backed up by various insiders leaks and what you can easily enough see from the administration's own behaviour.

(Not aimed at you by the way Azath, I just find these overly sensible political commentaries funny).

I don't see it happening any time soon but he has three years to go. If he keeps declining but doesn't actually die then I don't think the 25th is totally beyond the realm of possibility.

I am very morbidly curious about the Trump succession question. People often think he is the one person somehow holding all these disparate factions into a movement. But that's not really been put to the test. The other side of the argument being that these are longstanding structural forces in America that have been looking for an outlet. It's possible that it will dissipate into chaos without Trump but also possible it will outlast him and settle on a new lightning rod easily enough.

You know it is bad when they have decided that transparently trying to dodge the deposition - which looks terrible - is still their preferred choice versus having her testify.

The level of detail in the leaks to the NYT has been remarkable. I highly recommend reading it. A summary won't do it justice. And just think about what is happening for these journalists have come to get the play-by-play down to seating arrangements around the war room table.

They paint a stark picture of how Trump has surrounded himself with yes men in his second term. You have senior officials and generals that are unwilling to voice persistent dissent, that tell Trump that whatever decision he lands on will be the right one as if by the fact alone, when it comes to a massive foreign policy question and a massive break from the party campaign platform.

As I'd speculated in my response to the broken, it looks clear they were looking for the exits even before Trump's public threats. It looks like theatre given everything that has happened since.

The administration's top priority looks like extricating itself and trying to sell whatever they can back home. You can see that in the muted response to Iranian actions, going so far as to claim that easily verified facts about how little has been moving through the Strait are fake news.

Israel, having played an instrumental role in starting the war, seems transparently set on avoiding de-escalation. Might Israel have finally overplayed their hand with the US? Public sentiment towards them is starting from a low point, the conspirational America first groups on the far-right are hardly their natural allies, and Trump can be very sensitive and very self-interested... but it is still Israel at the end of the day. It is hard to bet on the US breaking from them in a meaningful way.