Malazan Empire: Grief - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

The current war is obviously going poorly but it takes a huge recency bias to think that the US has not been the dominant global military power across recent history, and it's especially dubious to claim that military dominance does or has done nothing for the US.

The post-WW2 system has majorly favoured US economic interests. The world has largely accepted liberal capitalism, market restrictions to American companies and American investors have been torn down, and global trade has been conducted in dollars.

You can ask whether the strategic interests that the US pursues benefit its citizens, but that's not necessarily the yardstick the country itself is using. The US is a capitalist country and has successfuly pursued strategic interests that massively benefit its capitalist class. It's military dominance has played a major part in that.

When Russia pursues policies that benefit its oligarchs, does the fact that Russian citizens don't benefit from that mean they have not achieved the goal they set out to achieve?

Beyond that, it's hugely debateable to claim that American strategy has not benefited its citizens in any way. If nothing else, American dominance has allowed it to borrow huge amounts of debt cheaply instead of having to raise that money from its citizens or companies. The global position of the dollar is a massive boon for the country as a whole. And that is secured, in part, by foreign policy.

I find it odd when people simultaneously hold that the US is an extractive, imperialist, nation and at the same time act like their military has not achieved anyything for them.

I'd potentially be down depending on the game .

We are in a very weird limbo state at the moment.

The mid-terms could put the US on a path back towards normality. Not back to normality itself, that's a long way off, but moving towards it instead of continuing to drive away from it.

The mid-terms could also be the final nail in the coffin.

There is a world of difference between an outgoing President crying foul about their election defeat - which was already bad enough and already saw a genuine attempt to overthrow the incoming government - and a sitting President trying to overturn election results while they are firmly within their term.

The latter feels practically inevitable unless Trump kicks the bucket beforehand. He does not seem capable of doing much else than deny negative election results. Not just from a political perspective but in terms of his own personality.

The question feels more like "what happens when..." than "what happens if...".

Large parts of his base could go along with him. The Republican party might or might not do the same depending how the wind looks like it is blowing on a given day. They have certainly not been inclined to oppose his anti-democratic tendencies before now, even where they have opposed him on other issues, and in many cases they seem in too deep at this stage. The time where they might find some excuse to turn away from Trump and not get tarred themselves seems long past.

Are the Democrats set up to mount a real opposition against an authoritarian power grab? It doesn't especially feel like it. At the same time, I'm not sure any kind of preparations would be publicly visible.

Cause, on 12 March 2026 - 06:16 PM, said:

The economics in these scenarios tend to be unpredictable and can be very counter-intuitive.

For example, sanctions put on short-term pressure but when you look at economies that have been heavily sanctioned for a long time - like Iran - in some ways that's insulating.

War economies are famously capable of churning on by creating their own jobs and demand, at least while it's necessary for war, and domestic rebuilding projects are in some ways comparable to growth.

Not saying Iran's economy is in a great shape or something, not remotely, more that I don't think we should expect economics to end the war in any near-term timeframe. Or if anything I think it's more likely America that will blink first economically.

The American economy has far further to fall and isn't starting from a strong position to handle short-term shocks due to previous waves of inflation, jobs disruption, and record debt levels. Republicans are not popular, Israel is not popular, and launching an aggressive war in the middle east is not popular. Even the American media sounds noticeably more critical about this war which typically signals a divided elite establishment.

I won't be surprised if that high gas prices force America to back off before Iran's economic woes force a regime change.

Meanwhile, Democratic senators claim that US military leadership are briefing that their war goals do not to extend regime change or to incapaciting Iran's nuclear programme.

Trump is classic as ever "if Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!".

The reports come from two anonymous sources so taking it with a grain of salt is very fair.

Meanwhile, the US has moved through "we can escort commercial shipping and have already escorted one ship" through to "we did not in fact escort a ship and are currently unable to offer escort". The lack of professionalism still shocks me.