Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Russian sources are now saying the situation in Zaporizhzhia is considerably worse (for them) than previously reported. The Russian commanders on this sector had amassed a considerable reserve force of "four divisions" but sent them into battle directly with inadequate drone, artillery or air cover and they got absolutely smashed. This wasn't reported properly, so commanders in Moscow believed that fully intact units were available for defence when they had effectively ceased to exist. Around 10,000 Russians have been killed, critically wounded or captured on this front alone.

Mala Tokmachka, on the eastern end of this front, appears to have fallen or at least been absorbed fully into the grey zone. Ukrainian forces have pushed further south of Orikhiv, their major reinforcement node in that sector, but the main effort is further west along the banks of the Dnipro. The Russians are really looking bad here, some Ukrainian units have penetrated to Stepove and multiple units may have bypassed Stepnohirsk to attack Plavni and recon Kamyanske itself. Kamyanske, at the junction of the Yanchekrak and Dnipro, remains the big prize.

ISW's analysis is that Ukraine has successfully liberated significant territory in western and eastern Zaporizhzhia, some parts of occupied Kharkiv Oblast, and made progress in Sumy Oblast, as well as conducted several limited-but-effective counterattacks against the main Russian assault on the Donetsk front. These have knocked the Russians off-balance and in some cases forced the relocation of units urgently needed in Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia to stop that front's complete collapse. This in turn has weakened the offensive in Donetsk. Ukraine has also reached the strategic mass necessary to extend its drone campaign to a simultaneously intense assault against Russian forces on the front, logistics in the rear and Russian positions in the deep rear (particularly the land corridor), forcing Russian units out to some considerable distance from the front to act as if they are on or near the front, in terms of travelling at night or on foot, as vehicles attract swarms of drones. This has coincided with Russian losses significantly outnumbering recruitment for at least three to four months in a row. Ukraine may have also now undertaken two to three days in a row where Ukrainian attacks along the front outnumbered Russian attacks.

Russia is trying to reassert the tactical initiative, particularly in Kupyansk, but with limited success; on 19 May it was assessed that Ukrainian forces had repulsed all remaining Russian forces from the urban area, forcing Russian forces to regroup.

Russian channels are also fuming over Putin's failure to secure the Power of Siberian 2 pipeline agreement whilst in China.

Another significant Ukrainian drone attack on Russia, with 300+ drones and missiles reported in the air. This is the third attack of such a size in a week.

Lukashenko has offered to travel to Ukraine to talk to Zelensky. The offer got a lukewarm reception.

Sweden and Ukraine are intensifying preparations for the sale of Gripens to Kyiv.

A Pantsir air defence system in Crimea was destroyed, which is not unusual, but the destruction caused significant collateral damage, with around 100 Russians killed or wounded in the process.

Greece and Ukraine are trying to resolve tensions that sprung up after a Ukrainian unmanned sea drone apparently malfunctioned and ended up in Greek waters. Several Mediterranean powers are uneasy about Ukraine launching aerial and sea-based attacks on Russian targets in the Mediterranean.

Ukraine has begun field-tests of the Trident laser defence system. The weapon can destroy Shaheds at a distance of 5km with expending any kind of ammunition.

Every single refinery in central Russia has shut down or significantly cut output after a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian oil production in this area is at least 25% down in capacity.

The US is continuing plans to pull 5,000 troops out of Germany, but apparently the same number may be stationed in Poland instead.

Ukraine has just launched a massive, multi-hundred drone strike on Russia. Targets unclear but Crimea is taking a hammering, as is the coast of the land corridor. Ukrainian drones overflying Rostov, Volgograd, Saratov, Voronezh Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Moscow, Ryazan, Smolensk and Vladimir. Ukrainian cruise missiles reported over Bryansk and Kaluga, possibly headed for Moscow.

Last night's drone raids targeted St. Petersburg Airport, which saw dozens of flights divert to Moscow.

Apparently Ukraine plans to deploy 50,000 ground-combat robots in 2026, a force larger than some allied ground armies.

Sweden is purchasing four new destroyers from France to bolster its defence in the Baltic.

Remarkable scenes at the UN, with Russia threatening Estonia and the US representative confirming that the USA will defend its NATO allies, including the Baltics.

Russian channels claiming that Ukraine has control of the north and west of Stepnohirsk, gloomy about Russia holding the settlement. They think Prymorske will go as well and Russia may not have good options to stop them north of Kamyanske. Taking Kamyanske will be the really decisive battle in this sector and determine if this is a localised counter-attack or a more serious counter-offensive that could imperil the land corridor.

At the same time the land corridor has been under effective Ukrainian interdiction for a week, with at least 10% of military and supply movements on the Mariupol - Donetsk City highway being destroyed. Somewhat less on the main land corridor rail and road route, but starting to risk. The "Crimea under siege" narrative is really starting to play.

There's a real argument in Russian Telegram-land, as different bloggers argue about Kupyansk. Whilst everyone agrees Russia has made some advances back towards Kupyansk, maps showing them back in control of the northern suburbs are being argued over, with several of the more reliable ones claiming that Russian forces have not reached Kupyansk itself beyond some recon units. The reporting on this front seems to have become highly propagandised after Gerasimov's batshit insane claims of Russian forces already being miles to the west of Kupyansk to Putin were made public.

Ukrainian intelligence has assessed that Russia is putting significant pressure on Belarus to allow Russian ground forces to invade Ukraine from Russian soil (again). Lukashenko has been resisting such overtures, but Russian military planners have already created operational plans for offensive action from Belarusian soil, perhaps quite far west to open an unexpected front. Ukraine believes Belarus has not committed to such an operation, but they are wavering more than they have in the past.

Russia has claimed that some Ukrainian drones used in operations against Russian ports on the Baltic were launched from Latvia. The Latvian government has denied such claims.

Allegedly Xi Jinping told Trump that Putin either regrets, or soon will, invading Ukraine.

Russian State Duma deputy Renat Suleymanov has floated the idea of ending the war in Ukraine. He believes that Russia cannot sustain a 40% defence budget and this will cause massive economic problems in Russia that might negate even a major victory on the battlefield, and reintegrating hundreds of thousands of PTSD-suffering troops is going to be a massive challenge.

Ukrainian forces now seem to control half or more of Stepnohirsk, with Russian forces retreating into the southern urban part of the town.

Recapturing Stepnohirsk would be a significant tactical victory, with larger strategic possibilities for a larger southward offensive. Heavier Russian reinforcements are arriving in that area but have so far not been effective.

Russia's largest chip-maker has posted staggering losses, with its 2024-25 losses being 47 times greater than its revenue, a catastrophic state of affairs. How much runway they have before collapsing altogether is unclear, but Russian economics are starting to push the panic button on that.

Russian Telegram commentators are furious about Ukrainian drones penetrating Moscow's three defensive AA rings, which currently consist of several hundred Pantsir and Buk systems and dozens of S-300 and S-400 missiles, plus at least one and maybe two S-500s (maybe the only two in existence, after another one got splashed in Ukraine). Though only a few missiles and drones got through from an estimated ~170, they caused significant damage.