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The Voronezh arms depot fire has spread out of control, taking out what seems to be a huge amount of surrounding buildings. The fire is so huge that NASA FIRMS software is showing a colossal area of the depot, the surrounding industrial area and even surrounding fields and forests ablaze. Residential areas are being evacuated.

Ukraine has raised its flag over Niu-York, and apparently counter-attacks are continuing to drive Russian forces back. The Russians are furious that engineers were not sent in to build fortifications behind them, leaving them nowhere to retreat to. There are also indications of counter-attacks on the Toretsk front.

Ukraine has confirmed that special forces operations are ongoing in Sevastopol, Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Smolensk, Kaluga, Oryol and Belgorod. These operations range from active sabotage to reconnaissance for drone strikes.

Russian soldiers looted one of their own border villages in Belgorod, stealing quad bikes.

Russia has dropped two fuel-air bombs on Martynovka in the Kursk region. This is a Russian settlement with Russian civilians still living there. Unclear if it was a direct hit on the settlement.

Garak, on 07 September 2024 - 02:21 PM, said:

This one appears to be a holding facility for newly-arrived missiles from North Korea. I've seen suggestions that more than 100 of them were destroyed in this hit. These are missiles that Russia has paid massively over the odds for from North Korea to augment their own very slow production rate, so losing a hundred of them in a single hit without them being used to hit anything is a big loss.

Ukraine is also widening its cordon-like ring around its borders in which it can hit ammo and fuel dumps and depots. The more it does this, the more it complicates Russian logistics, forcing them to drive ordinary trucks (sometimes ordinary cars) with fuel and ammo to the front over long distances interdicted by Ukrainian drones. This slows down Russian resupply at the front, which has on some occasions led to Russian forces having to retreat after running out of ammunition and/or fuel.

Strelkov is being sent to fight on the front lines. Interesting.

A Russian conscript unit wanted to surrender on the Kursk front, but didn't know how. So they contacted a local "Russian granny" they knew was on good terms with the Ukrainians and she negotiated their surrender.

The Russian Espanola Battalion was being redeployed using buses when they were surrounded by Akhmat soldiers and cars and prevented from moving. The police showed up and negotiated an end to the stand-off, which seemed to have no particularly point or grievance other than the Chechens being arseholes.

Russian forces pointing out even if they manage to evade the "flame strike" from a Ukrainian fire drone, any heavier equipment with them is often destroyed outright, as they can't recover it and the thermite burns it until there is nothing left. In one case an infantry unit spotted the drone incoming and managed to flee, but lost their heavy weapons, ammo and even their communications equipment and laptops, and needed to retreat in order to resupply.

Reports that territory near Niu-York, Toretsk and Selidovo has been retaken by Ukraine. Unclear on the extent of that.

Macros, on 06 September 2024 - 07:14 AM, said:

There are multiple intelligence sources working on the Russian casualties by combing local media, social media and Telegram channels across Russia for funeral announcements. These figures suggest the Ukrainian figures are somewhat accurate, though with a lag factor (i.e. Ukraine reports a casualty figure in March and by around September the US and UK come up with a figure that is broadly similar, but months old). This is based on Ukraine intercepting Russian communications on casualties and verifying kills and injuries with drones. Reliability of intercepted Russian communications has dropped over the war but the reliability of drone observations has drastically increased.

Ukrainian casualties are much, much harder to verify. Ukraine itself is not showing footage of them and Russians have been forbidden from filming directly on the front so we are more reliant on Ukrainian official sources, which have been more restrained.

Combining things, it appears that Ukraine has lost around 56,000 KIA, with around 40,000 confirmed and 16,000 missing but most likely dead. There are thousands more in Russian captivity whose status is uncertain. Around 300,000 have been injured.

Russia appears to have lost between 150,000 and 230,000 KIA (so maybe 170,000 with a degree of confidence), with a high ceiling of 400,000 injured.

Take those figures with a grain of salt for now but they appear to be in the ballpark.

If I had a penny every time Russia mounted a massed armoured assault on Vuhledar that got completely annihilated in a blizzard of drones and artillery fire with dozens of vehicles left burning, I'd have two pennies. Which isn't a lot but it's weird it's happened twice in two subsequent years.

The Ukrainian Dragon drones - apparently that's an assumed name, others are saying they are called "Dracarys" drones, which is insane - are also going wild. Entire forests being razed to the ground with hundreds of Russian soldiers forced to leave (some apparently were refused permission to retreat and were petrified of being shot, so stayed put and died) treelines across the Donetsk front. They've been thinner on the ground in Kursk so far.

Ukraine has equipped a formerly unarmed, quite small recon drone with, erm, an AK-47, to strafe Russian positions.

Romania has signed off on its Patriot delivery to Ukraine. That should be on its way imminently.

Ukraine claims it has halted the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk and driven it back in some areas. There's some supporting evidence for that, but it seems a bit premature to declare victory right now.

Ukraine has confirmed their new flamethrower drone is called "Dragon" and have deployed a lot more of them in recent days. They've been hitting Russian-held treelines hard, burning out Russian forces and forcing them to retreat, very successfully. Unconfirmed reports they've also been hitting trenches with them, but footage of that is mostly non-existent.

Ferocious fighting SE of Pokrovsk, apparently with at least one tactical victory and Ukrainian forces pushing the Russian advance back and retaking positions they lost a few days ago. Unclear on the scale of that. Other reports have Russian forces still advancing to the north.