Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Ukraine has finally taken Berezove on the east Zaporizhzhia front. They've had it partially surrounded for weeks and were advancing past it on both sides, whilst leaving an escape corridor for the Russian troops. Whether they took it or were neutralised is unclear, but that's a pretty big win on that front.

Ukrainian drones hit Ust-Luga for the second day in a row, setting the terminal ablaze again. They also hit the Kirishi refinery, also in Leningrad Oblast, which refines around 6% of Russia's entire oil output, putting it out of action. This seems a deliberate strategy to make sure Russia does not benefit from oil revenues during the Iran conflict.

Another Russian shadow fleet tanker took a direct hit whilst in the Bosphorus, sustaining significant damage.

Russia's entire oil refinery output dropped by around 40% on its worst day in recent weeks due to Ukrainian drones shutting down multiple facilities

Zelensky has scored a nice PR victory by being feted in Riyadh and having high-level meetings with the Saudi government. Ukraine has agreed to provide drone expertise to the Gulf countries, potentially in return for major investments in rebuilding Ukraine after the war.

Three oil tankers now confirmed destroyed in the attacks on Ust-Luga this week.

Ukraine has scored a major battlefield success at Kostiantynivka, the next major target for Russia after Pokrovsk. Russian soldiers are annoyed because they are attacking up a narrow and easily-outflanked corridor into the city, because Russia can't close the eastern and NE approaches because Ukraine is somehow holding onto the outer suburbs of Chasiv Yar, and Russia can't advance until they are cleared.

One analysis showing that Ukraine has successfully hollowed-out Russia's air defence along long stretches of the front, particularly by hitting Crimea hard so AD units are pulled from near the actual combat front to defend Crimea against a naval invasion (which is never going to happen, but the idea scares the Russians), which makes hitting the front lines with drones and aircraft much easier. This is now having a serious impact on the Russian positions. In contrast, short and medium-range Ukrainian AD remains reasonably intact along the front (although Patriot supplies remain low), with anti-drone measures becoming increasingly effective.

Iran claiming a shoot-down of an F/A-18 over the Iranian coast.

An Israeli industrial facility in the Negev has taken a direct hit from Iranian drones. Some claims that Israel has started rationing its interceptors.

Qeshm Island may be on the US hitlist. With Kharg too difficult to take, Qeshm near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz is arguably a more "gettable" target. However, it's much larger and more heavily populated and would take substantial forces to capture.

Some American logistics experts pointing out that the US has nothing like the logistics in theatre to support an attack on either island or the invasion of the Iranian mainland.

More than 300 US troops have now been wounded since operations began.

Ukraine has responded with a large drone assault on multiple Russian targets, with over 250 drones reported in the strike (which is very large for Ukraine).

Ukraine has blown up two Zircon missiles in their launcher in Crimea, causing a substantial explosion. 7 Russian casualties reported, and the loss of the two Zircons and the launcher is very expensive.

Some commentators suggesting Trump is just being conciliatory after being told it will take most of this week to get the initial 2500 marines into position to land on the Iranian coast. Two additional batches of reinforcements will come after them, but are still a couple of weeks away.

One claim that the US military is favouring an operation to land at Chabahar, east of the Strait of Hormuz and not far west (60 miles or so) of the Pakistani border. Chabahar Bay is a very large (~12 miles wide) bay with multiple docks and good landing points, with the ports of Chabahar and Konarak on either side of the bay, and smaller settlements around the edge. This could form a foothold and allow US land forces to advance west to clear the Gulf coast. However, it's still on low-lying ground with the mountains behind it, and would be a sitting duck for drones, artillery and missiles. Landing just 2500 troops there would be suicide.

The number of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian territory has exceeded the number of Russian long-range strikes on Ukrainian territory. This may be down to the successful Ukrainian destruction of several drone factories. Russia may also be stockpiling drones for a large-scale attack. However, Russia has also been back-selling upgunned Shaheds to Iran, to the fury of some Russian soldiers on the front line.

Russian soldiers who witnessed/survived the crushing defeat at Lyman have started telling their stories about what happened. The Russians advanced with basically no artillery cover and limited drones; the Ukrainians had a lot of artillery and far more drones. As the Russians advanced out of the fire support of what drones they did have, the Ukrainians deployed armour to meet them, so Russian infantry was engaging Ukrainian tanks and IFVs with small arms (they had some AT weapons, but not enough). One Russian infantryman was screaming that each soldier needed to scrape together 20-30,000 rubles per attack to buy decent equipment just for one operation, and the donations that used to flow freely from back home have dried up. "The Ukrainians fucked us up like pigs at the slaughterhouse."

Ukraine is deploying 15,000 STRILA interceptor drones funded by Germany, each capable of shooting down Shahed drones at a low cost. The STRILAs do not use GPS and have EW-resistant systems, and act as reverse-mines, waiting until an enemy drone enters the sky above them and launching upwards to engage with limited reaction time.

Russian media is now reporting of the need for an intervention in Narva, the town on the border between Russia and Estonia. Some media are saying that if Russia takes Narva, Estonia and Europe will not dare to intervene.

Ukrainian intelligence has exposed a Hungarian spy network operating in Zakarpattia Oblast, the far western oblast on the border with Hungary. The handler for the network has been arrested, and was apparently collecting data on Ukrainian air defence positions, military deployments and local sentiment, including the reaction to Hungarian troops entering Ukrainian territory.