Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Maark Abbott, on 05 March 2026 - 08:22 PM, said:

Article 5 has not been invoked, but NATO members are monitoring the situation. From Cyprus the European assets can also deploy to Turkish airspace if needed.

Garak, on 05 March 2026 - 06:55 PM, said:

It was a Russian airstrike on Lviv that hit the station on 27 January. It's unclear if it was a drone or missile aimed at Lviv that went awry (due to malfunction or Ukrainian EW) or a deliberate strike. Ukrainian and western radars were monitoring the path of the incoming Russian drones.

Asian countries are apparently in crisis mode over energy supplies. Whilst their militaries have some reserves for emergency operations, the civilian reserves vary wildly from country to country.

Japan's strategic reserve for oil is 254 days, built up after an embargo in 1973. Refiners have already asked the government to open them, Tokyo has said no, at least not yet. Japan's reserve is easily the largest in Asia. However, Japan's reserve for LNG is only three weeks.

China has 10 days of storage before domestic operations face supply constraints. Diesel exports have already been halted to preserve current supplies. It has been trying to stockpile from its Russian inflow, but that is more limited than I think people have understood (larger reserves from Russia can only be used with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline which hasn't been built yet due to Beijing screwing over Moscow for two years solid before agreeing to the plan; they may shortly bitterly regret this).

India has next to no reserves and has implemented gas cuts to industry of 10-30% across different regions, starting today.

South Korea is reliant on 1.6 million barrels per day through Hormuz and is believed to have pretty much zilch in reserve.

Pakistan and Bangladesh have no reserves whatsoever and, unlike some of the other countries, limited Plan B options.

Iran has hit the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline running from Ceyhan, Turkey to Baku via the Georgian capital. This pipeline supplies 30% of Israel's oil. Iran's next logical target is the Saudi East-West Pipeline that bypasses Hormuz, and the Abqaiq processing hub that handles the majority of Saudi crude before it reaches any export terminal. Bahrain's Bapco Energies Refinery has also been hit, sustaining heavy damage.

Iran's missile and drone strikes on Azerbaijan, if escalated, could also close the Azerbaijan-Armenia-Georgia air corridor, effectively shutting down Europe-Asia air travel altogether (aside from some routes that can divert north around Russia or south around India). With air carriers also ready warning of limitations to fuel storage for planes, that could be catastrophic to international travel.

Azerbaijan has declared a military alert and mobilised a large contingent of ground forces to the Iranian border. Air defence systems have been put on high alert, and Azerbaijan's military posture has shifted from the west, aimed at Armenia, to the south, aimed at Iran. Given Azerbaijan's proven military effectiveness in its two wars with Armenia, using sophisticated drone tactics, they may judge intervening in northern Iran (where a large Azeri minority lives) is necessary.

One of the two main Kurdish factions in north-eastern Iraq has indicated it might be willing to undertake offensive action in Iran, especially since Iranian forces have attacked them, but it is demanding close US air support, special forces on the ground and protection from Turkish retaliation. They've also advised they are not well-equipped, with their best equipment being Kalashnikovs and a few drones. They need artillery, much more drones and drone defences, and more armoured vehicles to support any kind of push into the Iranian border region.

Pakistani Balochs have crossed the border into Iranian Balochistan (Sistan and Baluchestan Province) and may be considering a secession from Iranian control. This could elevate the conflict into full-scale civil war, with the bulk of Iran's ground forces so far unengaged.

2 missiles have been destroyed heading towards Turkey. Turkey has taken consultation with NATO allies.

Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been discussing joint military defensive actions, including air strikes on Iranian missile sites. Apparently they would act in concert together and keep the USA informed of their plans. There would be no suggestion of Gulf States flying combat missions alongside Israeli forces.

The UK, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Germany and the Netherlands are deploying military assets to Cyprus.

Israel and the Gulf countries have fired 800 PAC-3 missiles in a week, more than Ukraine has in the entire war.

Camp Arifjan, a US military base in Kuwait, has received significant damage, with communications equipment destroyed.

The attack on Cyprus has been confirmed to have consisted of a single Shahed which flew at low altitude from Lebanon to hit a hanger used for hosting US U-2 spy planes.

Lebanon has reinstated visa requirements for Iranian nationals and banned the IRGC from operating in Lebanon. It may also pass laws to make the crime of "dragging Lebanon into conflict" a treasonable offence.

The explosion of the Arctic Metagaz off Malta is something to see. Jesus Christ.

The sheer scale of the Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk is becoming clear. The frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, the minesweepers Valentin Pikul and Ivan Golubets, and corvettes Kasimov and Yeysk all suffered serious damage. The Essen's superstructure was particularly badly hit, losing EW systems and radars.

Ukraine forces have rolled back a significant chunk of the eastern Zaporizhzhia front, and have moved into Dobropillya, north of Hulyaipole. Ukraine was apparently not expecting advances to still be possible, and Zelensky has identified significant manpower shortages in multiple areas of the front that are giving Ukraine fresh possibilities for attacks.

At least two Z-bloggers have claimed that Telegram's attempted suspension was linked to a plan for a fresh mobilisation. They anticipate much more widespread public disorder than we've see so far if mobilisation is attempted on a large scale, followed by even harsher economic problems. They worry that Moscow may be planning an adventure into the Baltics to scare NATO into backing down, which will not be successful.

Apparently Trump is going to have a discussion with the CEOs of Lockheed and Raytheon about weapon production times, deeming the replacement time to build new Patriot missiles and Tomahawks insufficient. One claim that the conflict in Iran so far - remember this is just Day 5 - has burned through more long-range munitions than four years of Ukraine (which sounds more apocalyptic than is actually the case; long-range munitions to Ukraine really consisted of a few hundred ATACM missiles and some stand-off air-launched missiles). Raytheon is apparently saying that, after a big ramp-up, they might be able to produce 1,000 Tomahawks a year, but this will cost the DoD as the Pentagon only budgeted for (!) 57 new missiles this year.

Great to see that four years after the invasion of Ukraine showed western countries what output they needed to be hitting, they're still nowhere close. The Chinese are pissing themselves laughing. One report a couple of years ago suggested that in a total war scenario, China could convert sophisticated civilian electronics factories into producing components for cruise missiles within days to weeks, and thereafter produce at least 1,000 cruise missiles a month, potentially rising to 1,000 a day if they went totally-all in on it. That seems pretty ludicrous, but the 1,000 a month seems doable.

Unconfirmed reports that Kurdish Iraqi fighters, including some seasoned from combat against ISIS, have moved across the border into Iranian Kurdistan and joined forces there. Apparently the Kurds were debating about whether to engage the regime or not (America's betrayal in Syria is fresh), but the Iranian government took care of that debate by dropping missiles on their heads, so now they're down with that.

Iran has also launched strikes on the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Erbil, with American C-RAMs deployed to take down incoming drones.

Azerbaijan has also reinforced its border with Iran with fresh troops and anti-drone weapons deployed.

Iran has apparently threatened to strike Israel's Dimona nuclear centre.

The USA has used the PrSM ballistic missiles for the first time, the replacement for ATACMs. The missiles are fired from HIMARS launchers.

More than twenty ships used by the Iranian Navy have been sunk, effectively neutralising the entire force, at least on paper.

Iran has possibly carried out a cyberattack on Iraq's power facilities, shutting down the electricity grid across a chunk of the country.

The US claims that Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped 86% since day one and drone attacks by 73%. Independent verification seems to be in question though, with some counting continued Iranian ballistic missile strikes at a higher tempo than that.

Israel has claimed the first air-to-air F-35 kill, with an F-35I engaging and shooting down a Yak-130 jet trainer over Tehran. This is not particularly something to be boasting about.

Three civilian ships have been struck off the Straits of Hormuz whilst attempting to cross. Several ships have been spotted switching off transponders and then reactivating them on the other side.

The Ras Tanura oil facility in Saudi Arabia has been hit by Iranian missiles.

A Kuwait F/A-18 Hornet was behind the friendly fire incident. The Hornet managed to shoot down three F-15E Strike Eagles during confusion when Kuwait was under attack by missiles and drones.r

The Greek Air Force has engaged Shahed attack drones off Cyprus, using F-16s.