Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

The presidents of Finland and Norway held a joint call with Putin and Putin apparently just ranted at them for 90 minutes about Slavic historical minutiae. The only solid thing they got from him was his minimal demand was still for the Donbas, and peace would not be possible until he had achieved that.

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian units have advanced around 14km on the Kupyansk front, having outflanked Russian positions using gas pipes. Waiting for better reporting on what that actually means.

Reports just emerging of a ceasefire in Kherson Oblast. The ceasefire was apparently negotiated by Melania Trump (!) and would allow the safe evacuation of the town of Oleshky. The town sits on the southern (left) bank of the Dnipro barely 4km from Kherson city, but has been in an odd position, with Russia unable to exert full control (despite occasional Russian troops visiting to proclaim control) and with a civilian population still located there. This is basically a civilian town located in the grey zone, potentially the only one of its kind in all of Ukraine.

The Russian Proton Plant in Oryol has taken massive damage. Four Storm Shadows hit the facility in rapid succession, starting enormous fires. This facility builds electronics and semiconductor components for Russia's air defence systems and missiles. The Ukrainian missiles apparently flew past the facility, making it look like they were heading elsewhere, but abruptly change couse and hit the factory before Russian interceptors could respond.

Russia lost 2,250 verified casualties yesterday, the highest one-day figure since the start of the invasion. It's believed there have been days when the true figure is much higher, but it has not been possible to verify within the 24-hour window. The current assessment is that Russia suffered 363,820 casualties (KIA, wounded, captured) in 2026 and 1,572,790 since the start of the invasion in February 2022, with between 500,000 and 600,00 KIA.

Ukraine hit the 75th Arsenal near Moscow overnight, causing significant damage to a repair and re-arming facility for Russian armoured vehicles.

Rapid Ranger SAMs are now in service in Ukraine. Built in the UK, the vehicles are fast-moving AA systems capable of targeting long-range drones.

Vietnam is supplying humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Allegedly Witkoff's proposals included a direct, Article 5-analogue security guarantee to Ukraine straight from the United States, which took Zelensky by surprise, and may make an end to the war on current lines more palatable. Witkoff is taking the proposal to Russia.

Mood music from Moscow is that the Donbas remains their firm red line but the proposals are more interesting than previous ones. One Kremlin source even reportedly said that peace maybe "closer than ever before," which can be technically correct whilst still meaning that peace is not going to happen.

I can't see them bridging this last hill though. Ukraine would be insane to give up Slovyansk and Kramatorsk unfought and then rely on Trump's goodwill or the goodwill of an unknown President three terms down the line who decides he doesn't want to risk World War III over keeping Russia east of the Dnipro. Russia does not want the risk of a NATO peacekeeping force on Ukrainian soil five minutes after the war ends.

But if Putin wants to end the war imminently so he can salvage the Russian economy, this might be his last window of opportunity to do so.

I consider that outcome doubtful at best.

Ukraine has undertaken another secretive operation in the small part of Sumy Oblast under Russian control. 29 Russian soldiers were captured, 108 killed in a seven-week operation that cleared over 600 hectares.

Trump's current rant on the conflict is the most unhinged load of bollocks I think he's ever uttered, and it's a competitive field.