Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

The explosion of the Arctic Metagaz off Malta is something to see. Jesus Christ.

The sheer scale of the Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk is becoming clear. The frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, the minesweepers Valentin Pikul and Ivan Golubets, and corvettes Kasimov and Yeysk all suffered serious damage. The Essen's superstructure was particularly badly hit, losing EW systems and radars.

Ukraine forces have rolled back a significant chunk of the eastern Zaporizhzhia front, and have moved into Dobropillya, north of Hulyaipole. Ukraine was apparently not expecting advances to still be possible, and Zelensky has identified significant manpower shortages in multiple areas of the front that are giving Ukraine fresh possibilities for attacks.

At least two Z-bloggers have claimed that Telegram's attempted suspension was linked to a plan for a fresh mobilisation. They anticipate much more widespread public disorder than we've see so far if mobilisation is attempted on a large scale, followed by even harsher economic problems. They worry that Moscow may be planning an adventure into the Baltics to scare NATO into backing down, which will not be successful.

Apparently Trump is going to have a discussion with the CEOs of Lockheed and Raytheon about weapon production times, deeming the replacement time to build new Patriot missiles and Tomahawks insufficient. One claim that the conflict in Iran so far - remember this is just Day 5 - has burned through more long-range munitions than four years of Ukraine (which sounds more apocalyptic than is actually the case; long-range munitions to Ukraine really consisted of a few hundred ATACM missiles and some stand-off air-launched missiles). Raytheon is apparently saying that, after a big ramp-up, they might be able to produce 1,000 Tomahawks a year, but this will cost the DoD as the Pentagon only budgeted for (!) 57 new missiles this year.

Great to see that four years after the invasion of Ukraine showed western countries what output they needed to be hitting, they're still nowhere close. The Chinese are pissing themselves laughing. One report a couple of years ago suggested that in a total war scenario, China could convert sophisticated civilian electronics factories into producing components for cruise missiles within days to weeks, and thereafter produce at least 1,000 cruise missiles a month, potentially rising to 1,000 a day if they went totally-all in on it. That seems pretty ludicrous, but the 1,000 a month seems doable.

Unconfirmed reports that Kurdish Iraqi fighters, including some seasoned from combat against ISIS, have moved across the border into Iranian Kurdistan and joined forces there. Apparently the Kurds were debating about whether to engage the regime or not (America's betrayal in Syria is fresh), but the Iranian government took care of that debate by dropping missiles on their heads, so now they're down with that.

Iran has also launched strikes on the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Erbil, with American C-RAMs deployed to take down incoming drones.

Azerbaijan has also reinforced its border with Iran with fresh troops and anti-drone weapons deployed.

Iran has apparently threatened to strike Israel's Dimona nuclear centre.

The USA has used the PrSM ballistic missiles for the first time, the replacement for ATACMs. The missiles are fired from HIMARS launchers.

More than twenty ships used by the Iranian Navy have been sunk, effectively neutralising the entire force, at least on paper.

Iran has possibly carried out a cyberattack on Iraq's power facilities, shutting down the electricity grid across a chunk of the country.

The US claims that Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped 86% since day one and drone attacks by 73%. Independent verification seems to be in question though, with some counting continued Iranian ballistic missile strikes at a higher tempo than that.

Israel has claimed the first air-to-air F-35 kill, with an F-35I engaging and shooting down a Yak-130 jet trainer over Tehran. This is not particularly something to be boasting about.

Three civilian ships have been struck off the Straits of Hormuz whilst attempting to cross. Several ships have been spotted switching off transponders and then reactivating them on the other side.

The Ras Tanura oil facility in Saudi Arabia has been hit by Iranian missiles.

A Kuwait F/A-18 Hornet was behind the friendly fire incident. The Hornet managed to shoot down three F-15E Strike Eagles during confusion when Kuwait was under attack by missiles and drones.r

The Greek Air Force has engaged Shahed attack drones off Cyprus, using F-16s.

A Ukrainian automated ground droid has engaged and destroyed a Russian drone with AA machine guns. Two robots on opposing sides killing one another. Probably not the first time its happened, but crazy to see.

The Russian shadow fleet tanker Arctica Metagaz is ablaze in the Mediterranean, having been hit by sea drones near Malta.

Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine has offered assistance to Gulf States in repelling Shahed drones. Qatar and the UAE have already taken ideas on board, from the sound of it (and unconfirmed reports some Ukrainian personnel may already be in the Gulf).

Ukraine has destroyed an S-300 radar system in Luhansk. Interesting signs that S-300 radars, which are predominantly used for AA purposes, may be in use as general radars due to other systems being exhausted.

Ukraine has damaged the Yevpatoria Aviation Plant, where Forpost and Orion drones are constructed.

Several analyses show that Ukraine has massively enhanced defensive fortifications throughout the Donbas region, as well as other parts of the country, including areas currently free of danger, like Chernihiv and Sumy city. The defensive rings surrounding Zaporizhzhia city, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk can only be described as insane. Ukraine has publicised these recently, adding to Russian concerns about what it's going to take to complete the conquest of Donbas, let alone anywhere else.

Ukraine has also destroyed a radar system attached to an S-400 AA system at Osinovaya Gora in Russia's Tula region. Russia has lost five air defence systems in one day, which is the highest figure for some time.

Iraq has cut oil production by nearly 1.5 million bpd. Iraq and Kuwait have major problems as they have no choice but to export via the Persian Gulf. The UAE can use cross-Saudi pipelines and the opposing coast in the Gulf of Oman (though Iran has targeted some terminals there with drones), and Saudi has a whole other coast, but Iraq and Kuwait are kinda screwed (and an alternate pipeline via Turkey never amounted to much).

The British RAF has engaged and destroyed a Shahed drone approaching Qatar. The British have also scored their first air-to-air kill with an F-35, shooting down a drone over Jordan.

Iran has warned it will start targeting European cities if any European power begins attacking sites in Iran. Commentators are doubtful Iranian missiles can reach central Europe, let alone western, but some areas in eastern Europe and Turkey are certainly within range. At the moment the only European country considering joining strikes on Iran is (er) Lithuania, though the UK and France are engaged in anti-missile and anti-drone operations over Israel, Cyprus and the Gulf.

The UAE has also apparently warned Iran it will join strikes on Iran if the attacks continue. The UAE has the most powerful military out of the Gulf States and currently fields some 100 modern combat aircraft including Mirage 2000s, F-16s and a single Rafale (to be joined by 80 more shortly), which is a reasonably formidable force. Qatar has also apparently "attacked" Iran, though in what capacity is unclear.

The Greek frigates Psara and Kimon are on their way to Cyprus to help defend the island from Iranian missiles an drones. The Kimon is named after the Athenian general who led a campaign against the Persians in Cyprus in 450 BC, so that's appropriate.

Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine has offered assistance to Gulf States in repelling Shahed drones. Qatar and the UAE have already taken ideas on board, from the sound of it (and unconfirmed reports some Ukrainian personnel may already be in the Gulf).

Iran is primarily using commercial trucks as converted ballistic missile launchers, with the time taken from stopping to launching being usually around a minute to two minutes, making it almost impossible for Israel and the US to target them before launch, unless they want to start blowing up every single truck in the country (which would entail massive civilian casualties).

The Iranian Defence Ministry states that it believes it possesses several times as many missiles as opponents have interceptors, and its timeline for resistance is multiples longer than the US and Israel's available timeline.

Israel and the US are continuing to hit IRGC and Baij bases and staging posts hard, destroying dozens of sites over the past few days.

Possibly invoking irony, Russia has complained to the IAEA after Israeli and American air strikes took place close to the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which is run in conjunction with the Russian nuclear agency.

Iranian negotiators told US envoy Steve Witkoff they control 460kg of uranium enriched to 60% and that it could produce 11 nuclear bombs, Witkoff said. He added they were proud to have bypassed all oversight protocols to reach that point. All of this is according to Witkoff though, so take it with a 460kg grain of salt.

Because Iran has no restrictions on expanding the conflict even further, it has hit the Australian military HQ at Al Minhad Airbase in the UAE with drones.

Intriguingly, Trump has held a call with Kurdish leaders in Iraq. Kurdish forces have thousands of troops along the border with Iran, and Iraqi and Iranian Kurds in the north have close ties. However, Iraq and Syrian Kurds are unhappy with the Americans for a lack of support in the recent clashes between the Kurds and the new Syrian government. Also, if the Kurds were to initiate ground combat operations in Iran, Turkey would likely get involved as well.

The American embassy in Riyadh and the US consulate in Dubai have both been hit by drones.

The French carrier Charles de Gaulle is deploying to the eastern Mediterranean.

Some Iranian missiles directed towards oil refineries in the Gulf. That could cause real pain if they went after them hard.

One unconfirmed report that a regular Iranian army unit has refused IRGC orders to join them in suppressing protestors in Tehran, leading to an exchange of fire. Other Iranian units have refused to transfer AA assets to IRGC forces. The regular Iranian military has taken some damage, but nothing like the fire that has been directed at IRGC command and control nodes and bases. The IRGC may have lost control of parts of Tehran due to several of their bases being destroyed with significant casualties.

Beijing has reportedly gotten Tehran to guarantee safe passage for oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz, at least for Chinese ships or those bound for China. Though that's in question, an hour ago Iranian representatives were saying they will set fire to the straits if anyone tries to pass through (how they plan to do that is another question, but still).

One report breaking that Saudi Arabia gave Trump the greenlight for attacking Iran, possibly a result of "alarming" intelligence about the direction of travel of Iran's missile and nuclear programmes. Saudi and Iran were very heavily opposed to one another up until a few years ago, when China brokered a deal, and Saudi has been much more cautious since then, so interesting they went in full-throttled support of Israel and the US attacking Iran. Some Saudi sources have even urged Saudi Arabia to join in, but that seems to being held off at the moment as the idea of Saudi and Israeli jets flying into combat on the same side is still unpalatable to a lot of people. But Trump is apparently pushing Saudi recognition of Israel again in the background.

Apparently some Ukrainian anti-drone units (or rather, people from them in rotation off the front line) might already be in the UAE and Qatar with advice for those governments on how to handle low-cost drones. Qatar is warning that it's Patriot batteries will run dry in 4 days at current rates of fire.

Trump has reportedly turned down a call from Putin over the crisis.

Turkey has offered to mediate the crisis. Less confirmed reports that Turkey has told Iran bluntly what they will do if Iran targets the major US airbase at Incirlik.

American KIA have risen to 6, along with three F-15s shot down over Kuwait in an apparent friendly fire incident.

Greece has deployed F-16s to Cyprus to help intercept incoming drones.

The Shahid Bagheri, possibly the most advanced ship in the Iranian Navy (not saying much), has apparently been destroyed. Total Iranian naval asset losses are eleven, leaving no Iranian ships east of the Straits of Hormuz.

The Israelis and Americans appear to have targeted the fuel enrichment complex at Natanz, with significant damage shown.

Damage to the US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain is considerably more extensive than first reported, with two radar systems destroyed and four buildings levelled.

It appears Russia may have back-sold Shaheds to Iran; one of the drones shot down over Cyprus had Russian-made satellite navigation systems.

Air alert sirens sounding in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Amman, unclear if Amman is under direct attack (for the first time in the conflict) or missiles are overflying to Israel.

Israel has come under a strong bombardment of advanced ballistic missiles with multiple warheads.

A Patriot battery fired TWELVE interceptors to take down what appear to be munitions from 2-3 Iranian missiles. That exchange rate is not going to work.

Currently over 150 ships are holding on either side of the Straits of Hormuz, unwilling to risk crossing. Several ships that did cross earlier may have been Chinese.