Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

South Korean intelligence has said that 300 North Koreans soldiers have died and 2,700 have been wounded in Ukraine. This is approximately one-third of the total force North Korea sent. They are monitoring to see if North Korea will send any further troops.

Chinese companies have bought out several failing Russian businesses, including a mine in Kemerovo region. In each case, talks began some months ago but were then put on hold until the businesses were on the verge of bankruptcy, and then China stepped in to pick them up at a bargain price. Other Chinese companies are circling failing Russian ventures, and some whispers that even state-affiliated companies like Gazprom might be in the firing line. Gazprom has had to cut 1,600 employees at its Moscow HQ, almost 40% of the workforce.

Polish intelligence has indicated that Russia was planning deniable terrorist strikes involving airliners all over the world. Polish intelligence uncovered the plot and has shared details with its allies. The details of the plot have not been made public.

The idea of the Russian government "freezing" all access to bank deposits is continuing to circulate on Russian media. Some citizens have withdrawn some or all of their money, but so far there is no mass run on the banks.

BAE Systems in the UK is producing new artillery gun barrels for Ukraine.

The Liski storage depot in Voronezh Oblast was hit overnight and continues to burn.

Latvia and the Netherlands have sent warships and coastal vessels to the Gulf of Finland to join Estonian and Finnish ships and aircraft patrolling the area after attacks on undersea cable infrastructure.

Ukraine has said that it believes Russia reached a high point of around 600,000 deployed troops on Ukrainian territory in 2024. Ukraine itself currently has over 800,000 deployed troops. However, it has to defend the entire border with not just Russia, but Belarus and Transnistria as well, whilst Russia is able to choose areas to concentrate troops in and then attack. However, since Kursk Russia has to be careful itself about where to draw troops from in case Ukraine can take advantage and counter-attack.

On January 14 alone, Russia mounted five assaults on the Siversk front. 39 motorcycles, 2 BMPs, 2 ATVs, 16 FPVs, one EW antenna and 2 civilian vehicles converted into ad hoc APCs were destroyed by the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. 52 Russians were killed, 12 were injured and one was captured.

France, Poland and Britain have discussed scenarios for sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, including enforcing a post-war buffer zone, or even taking over some roles (along the Polish and Moldovan border, for example) to free up tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to redeploy to the east.

The Red Cross has requested unfettered access to Ukrainian POWs in Russian care. It has had access to Russian POWs in Ukraine.

Russian forces have advanced south-west of Pokrovsk and cut the highway to Mezhova. They have run into heavy Ukrainian resistance at Kotlyne, with some reports that some of the Russian gains have been lost, but the situation is unclear. Russia's goal seems to be encircling Pokrovsk, but of the two "pincers" needed, only the southern one has had any success, the northern one has been bogged down by fierce Ukrainian resistance and counter-attacks. However, the Ukrainian defence of Pokrovsk has been compromised by the loss of Shevchenko and its pre-prepared defensive positions to the south of the main town. Ukrainian sources seem divided on whether that's survivable or not. If the northern pincer starts gaining ground, that may make a defence of Pokrovsk unsustainable; if not, and the Russians have to storm the town from the south alone, the Ukrainian defensive position in the town itself is potentially a deathtrap at least approaching that of Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

Russia's breathtakingly insane attacks across the Dnipro in Kherson continue. The 40th Coastal Defence Brigade has used artillery and drones to turn back continuous attacks by speedboat and jetski (!). These attacks are even dumber than ones elsewhere because Russian attacks elsewhere do degrade Ukrainian forces (if at a heavily lopsided rate), but here they simply don't get anywhere near to actually start firing at Ukrainian positions (which are on high ground, behind the mouth of one of the biggest rivers in Europe). Russians here are dying for absolutely no reason.

Scott Bessent, incoming Treasury Secretary, has said that he has identified strategies to cripple Russia's oil majors through much heavier sanctions, should Trump request so as part of his strategy to end the war.

The attacks and counter-attacks in Kursk are continuing. Having gained ground last week, Ukrainian forces paused to regroup and were able to destroy significant amounts of Russian armour. Ukrainian forces operating here have said that Russia's decision to switch back to "meat grinder" attacks has been massively counter-productive, with Ukrainian losses dropping and Russian ones shooting right up, which has not been effective for Russian goals. Ukrainian forces seem to be surprised by the fact they've been able to counter-attack and gain new territory as the Russians have failed to build defences. They thank the recent changes in Russian command in the area.

Ukraine's economy is proving much more resilient than anticipated, with the country making more money from agricultural exports in 2024 than it did before the war started. This has allowed Ukraine to fund the war with over $40 billion of its own money, matching Russia's pre-war military spending. Allied contributions have more than doubled that.

The renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, which had paused in the winter out of respect to Biden's requests, seem to be paying off, with appreciable decreases in Russian oil and diesel production, and increased internal stress as the oligarchs and the state fight over air defences. Most surprising has been that Russia has seemingly run out of foam needed to fight chemical fires, leaving several Russian fire units to simply leave fires to burn out as they have no way of bringing them under control.

Fico was caught skiving off government duties to go to Vietnam and staying a luxury hotel his salary could not afford, which has raised questions even from his own allies. Hopefully that could do for him.

Russian domestic politics getting interesting due to public confidence in the economy dropping. Corporate debt is running at 71% and there are increasing fears of a banking sector collapse. The public information space is buzzing with rumours that banks will be frozen and prevented from allowing cash withdrawals. We've seen several mini-runs on the banks, but each time the government was able to reassure customers and stop it becoming a major problem. But the room to maneuver there seems to be running out.

Several economic analyses inside and outside Russia agree that a banking sector meltdown could be halted by a state intervention equal to between 50% and 60% of the entire Russian 2025 budget. This would prop up the sector (but little more), but would obliterate public spending in all other areas, with defence being very hard hit.

Since the Kremlin refused the central bank permission to hike interest rates in December, the overheating is becoming more visible (food prices continuing to rise). The central bank may be hoping the situation becomes serious enough to convince them to allow an interest rate hike in February, otherwise inflation could get completely out of control.

Cause, on 15 January 2025 - 12:28 AM, said:

Under South Korea's constitution, all NK citizens are automatically citizens of South Korea.

Ukraine has carried out its single largest attack on Russian soil. Over 200 drones and cruise missiles were fired at dozens of targets, many of them close to Ukraine but some over 1,000km from the border. Engels Air Force Base, where three fuel tanks were destroyed later week and six more endangered by fire, was hit again. It appears seven tanks in total have now been destroyed. Multiple targets in Tula and the Bryansk Chemical Plant were targeted, and two fixed-wing long-range UAVs were engaged over Tatarstan, which is a significant distance from the Ukrainian border. Oryol, Voronezh, Saratov, Belgorod and Rostov Oblasts were all targeted as well. A distillery in Tambov that had been converted to military use has been destroyed. The Saratov Refinery is ablaze.

Russia was also hit by a cyberattack, which stooped websites from working and halted bank payments for several hours.

Russia has apparently destroyed a "western-supplied Ukrainian air defence system." They then abruptly pulled the imagery after Russian Telegram sources pointed out they'd actually blown up a North Korean Tor-NK anti-air launcher in Kursk Oblast.

Sweden has assigned three warships and a spotter plane to NATO's maritime defence mission in the Baltic and the Gulf of Finland, joining three Estonian ships and multiple Finnish ships and aerial observation platforms. They are are monitoring the security of energy and communications cables after two attempts to cut cables in recent months.

South Korea has confirmed it is open to repatriating captured North Korean soldiers from Ukrainian custody, if they so wish.

New US sanctions have left three Russian tankers stuck off the coast of China, with 2 million barrels between them. Shandong Port has refused to allow them to dock, fearing crippling US financial reprisals.

Two employees of the Russian FSB Counterintelligence Department got into an argument in a MoD building in Moscow, with the argument ending with one of them shooting the other one in the head.

Zelensky has invited Slovakian PM Fico to Kyiv to discuss the energy supply issue.

Ukrainians at home and in the United States have begun fund-raising efforts to donate aid to California during its battle with the wildfires.

The Murderbot Diaries #7: System Collapse

Quote