Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Once the Ford is on station, the USA will have over a third of its totally deployable combat air power on the planet in-theatre. Add in bombers flying from the US mainland direct, and the US will be able to bring to bear roughly 40% of its total military airpower against Iran.

The US has only deployed this much aerial firepower previously against Iraq in 1990 and 2003, and far more than they did against Afghanistan in 2001. The US has never deployed this amount of firepower or even close to it, and not used it.

There's also reporting that Iran's offer has been to lower enrichment and only conduct it at low-grade locations around the country. Trump likely would see this as insufficient.

There has also been a rising number of protests again. After several low-key weeks, there were over twenty protests in cities around the country, possibly as anticipation of a strike rises.

Six F-22s transitioned through RAF Lakenheath in the UK today, likely headed for the region.

A key difference here is that in previous military engagements, even Iraq which was launched under highly dubious circumstances, the United States and its allies had a pretty open public debate about what was going on. Maybe the US would ignore everyone and attack anyway (as they did, ultimately disastrously, in 2003), but at least there was talk going on.

Right now the US is about to hit Iran (a country almost four times the size of Iraq with over twice the population with a vastly larger and more capable military) with everything it has, at least in the air, sparking possible regional chaos and the deaths of hundreds of US servicemen and Israeli civilians, and there's barely been any discussion of the military, political or economic objectives or how to impose them on Iran without a full-scale land invasion, which at least is not on the cards at the moment.

Multiple Flamingo cruise missiles just flew over 1300km to hit the Votinsk Munitions Plan, which produces Iskander ballistic missiles. The plant took a serious hit, although the plant is also massive, and was far from fully disabled. Still, an impressive demonstration of Flamingo's increasing capabilities.

Interesting account in The Guardian from dozens of UK, US, Ukrainian and even some Russian sources on the start of the war.

The most interesting bit here is how vociferously Dmitry Kozak argued against the invasion, even standing up and arguing with Putin during that grotesque bit of theatre when Putin asked for government and business officials to back him. The broadcast version has Putin mocking Naryshkin for stammering but otherwise accepts everyone's agreement. The uncut version apparently has Kozak and Putin getting into it over the decision, Kozak only keeping his position (and possibly life) from being one of Putin's most trusted confidantes for over 20 years.

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group passed through the Straits of Gibraltar this morning and is now in the western Mediterranean. That means it could be in a position to support strikes on Iran tomorrow or Sunday from the central or eastern Mediterranean, useful if its primary goal is to launch fighters to intercept munitions headed towards Israel. For direct strikes on Iran, being in the Indian Ocean would be better, so we'll see if they stay in the Med or pass through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, which will take a few more days.

Readings from insiders seem to be set that Trump is favouring military action but has not 100% made the decision, which could come at any time (the ten days thing is a typical Trumpian negotiating tactic, not a hard deadline).

Interesting interview with Zaluzhnyi. He tries to be very polite, but he pins the blame for the failure of the 2023 counter-offensive on the decision to split the operation across three fronts rather than focusing everything on one substantial breakthrough on the Zaporizhzhia front, and used too many green and very old troops.

I'm going to be honest, I think the Russian defences were so deep on that sector that there's not a lot the Ukrainians could have done with their 2023 equipment park. Perhaps now, with more sophisticated mine-removing equipment, that operation could have been successful. But then, the Russians would also have the technological advantages that have evolved since then, so maybe not.

Interesting that AP is raising Zaluzhnyi's profile, with rumours of Zelensky calling a surprise spring election circling. Zaluzhnyi either matches or slightly exceeds Zelensky in polling as a possible presidential candidate.

Anyway, on the Hulyaipole front in eastern Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainians have established firm control over Verbove and are advancing on Kalynivske and Berezove, where heavy Russian forces may be dug in. Ukraine is also making steady progress south from Vyshneve. Heavy combat in this area. Both pro-Russian and Ukrainian sources have assessed Ukrainian entry to Yehorivka and Pryvillia but others are sceptical, suggesting recon groups only. This may be one of the least-filmed Ukrainian offensives of the war, with limited video or geolocation evidence.

Belgorod is drawing up plans to evacuate multiple settlements because the sewage systems have stopped working in the face of Ukrainian attacks on the oblast's electricity grid. More than 250 portable toilets have already been delivered to the region, but thousands would likely be needed to take the strain (so to speak).

Russia has tried to reinforce its small holding on the Sumy Oblast border, resulting in heavy combat operations. Five Russian soldiers surrendered to the 158th Mechanized Brigade during one firefight. Ukraine has noted a growing trend in the last year or so of Russian soldiers surrendering more easily than previously.

Russian mil-blogger Golman has said that Russian forces on the front are complaining about a lack of equipment donated by civilians at home. Russia has been disproportionately reliant on friends and family at home crowdfunding armour, radios, cold weather gear etc, but ballooning prices mean such efforts don't go as far as they did or simply don't get off the ground, with people diverting funds to their own needs.

As with last winter, Donetsk City has seen protests as water supplies freeze and widespread power outages take place.