Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Absolutely wild claims that a large-scale Russian counter-offensive on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk front (almost from Hulaiyapole to Pokrovsk, which is about a thir dof the entire front) was halted primarily by unmanned systems, some of them operating autonomously, with over 1,700 Russian casualties in a 24-hour period. The Russian reports on Telegram are absolutely stunned, saying they were ordered onto the offensive without artillery support and only minimal drones, and were then met by a wall of enemy drones. Apparently the advance was ordered under fog cover but the Ukrainian optics could just see through it.

Iran launched more ballistic missiles today than since the fourth day of the war, and more drones than any day since the second. So much for the gradual degradation of their launch capabilities.

Unconfirmed footage showing something crazy, some of the missiles are launching from sites partially covered in sand, so you can barely see the missiles before they launch. Trying to work out if this is actually real.

The UK's National Security Advisor and a team of experts with technical knowledge of the negotiations and experience in the regional politics attended the US-Iran peace talks just before the war started. The team was surprised at the concessions Iran made, and judged that Iran was certainly willing to concede more. They were also worried that Witkoff and Kushner (who lacked any such advisors) didn't seem to know what TF they were talking about.

The UK's decision not to get involved was based on the conclusion that the conflict was definitely illegal because no evidence was shown of an imminent threat to the US or UK, and that the Americans had basically abandoned the peace process despite strong (and rapid) progress was being made.

Israel hit the South Pars gas field in Iran, causing significant damage to both the Iranian and Qatari-owned parts of the field. Iran previously indicated this would be a red line for its own targeting of Gulf oil infrastructure, and its retaliation has been quite fast. The Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar has come under attack with several hits and significant explosions. Iran has now advised workers to evacuate the Al-Hosn gas field in the UAE, the Masaiid Holding Company facility in Qatar, the Al-Jubail complex on the Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia, and the Samref refinery on the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia.

Qatar has now responded by naming Iran a direct threat to the region and calling emergency security meetings. Qatar's military forces have been in constant readiness since the attacks began. The Qatari Air Force, in particular, is not to be sniffed at, with 30 Rafales, 32 Typhoons and 36 F-15QA Strike Eagles that could augment US-Israeli operations in the Gulf.

Insider reporting that Trump has started favouring an operation requiring the US to seize multiple islands along the coast of Iran to secure the coastline and allow ships to pass. Joe Kent may have resigned because of the severe moronic stupidity of this plan, which could be the biggest military fiasco in US history. Some suggestion that Vance has also been trying to talk Trump down from it, but he's gung-ho and Hegseth seems to be for it as well. Jesus Christ.

The imminent closure of Telegram has made a whole bunch of Z-bloggers really come out swinging.

They're now saying that Ukraine can interdict logistics at will in some places fifty kilometres behind the line, making any resupply and forward movement impossible. The only area that seems to be relatively free of that is in Donetsk around the Pokrovsk front, but even that is getting harder. Russian counter-drone actions are minimal and Russian drone teams have been increasingly shaken down and sent to the front to die in meat grinder attacks. Only the most elite and high-profile Russian units have managed to stay out of it.

Basically the conditions set on a small scale in Kharkiv in summer 2022 and Kherson in autumn 2022 that led to entire fronts collapsing now existing across more than half of the entire front. Ukraine doesn't have enough troops to push across the entire front, but where they do push, the same conditions could develop and force Russian withdrawals, as we have seen in eastern Zaporizhzhia and are now starting to see in the south-west.

Simultaneously, Russia has accumulated significant reservices for a big push on the fortress belt, and to a lesser extent reinforcements in Zaporizhzhia to try to stop the current withdrawal and push back towards Zaporizhzhia city. Some rumours Putin has demanded that Zaporizhzhia city be taken. With a population of 700,000, it would be the largest city contested in the war to date and the urban fighting to take it would be hell on Earth. But Putin seems to think that he needs a really big city rather than all the small little industrial towns he's liberated (by annihilating them) to help sell the semblance of a victory. If this new idea turns into an obsession, again diverting resources from what should be the main focus in Donetsk, that could blow back on him, especially since Russia is simultaneously pursuing offensive operations in Kharkiv and Sumy they can't really afford to undertake.

Russian media channels have apparently proposed the formation of the "Narva's People's Republic" in Estonia, but so far the Russian-speaking population in Narva seems unenthused.