Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

The imminent closure of Telegram has made a whole bunch of Z-bloggers really come out swinging.

They're now saying that Ukraine can interdict logistics at will in some places fifty kilometres behind the line, making any resupply and forward movement impossible. The only area that seems to be relatively free of that is in Donetsk around the Pokrovsk front, but even that is getting harder. Russian counter-drone actions are minimal and Russian drone teams have been increasingly shaken down and sent to the front to die in meat grinder attacks. Only the most elite and high-profile Russian units have managed to stay out of it.

Basically the conditions set on a small scale in Kharkiv in summer 2022 and Kherson in autumn 2022 that led to entire fronts collapsing now existing across more than half of the entire front. Ukraine doesn't have enough troops to push across the entire front, but where they do push, the same conditions could develop and force Russian withdrawals, as we have seen in eastern Zaporizhzhia and are now starting to see in the south-west.

Simultaneously, Russia has accumulated significant reservices for a big push on the fortress belt, and to a lesser extent reinforcements in Zaporizhzhia to try to stop the current withdrawal and push back towards Zaporizhzhia city. Some rumours Putin has demanded that Zaporizhzhia city be taken. With a population of 700,000, it would be the largest city contested in the war to date and the urban fighting to take it would be hell on Earth. But Putin seems to think that he needs a really big city rather than all the small little industrial towns he's liberated (by annihilating them) to help sell the semblance of a victory. If this new idea turns into an obsession, again diverting resources from what should be the main focus in Donetsk, that could blow back on him, especially since Russia is simultaneously pursuing offensive operations in Kharkiv and Sumy they can't really afford to undertake.

Russian media channels have apparently proposed the formation of the "Narva's People's Republic" in Estonia, but so far the Russian-speaking population in Narva seems unenthused.

Continuous drone strikes in the Moscow region have shut down its airports. Mobile fire groups are circling the capital and citizens in Moscow are being treated to the sound of gunfire as they try to bring down incoming drones. There are some indications the Ukrainians are targeting the ring of S-300 and S-400 AA systems circling the capital, which have recently been augmented by Pantsirs mounted on towers.

Milbloggers are divided on whether Russia is concentrating forces in Donetsk Oblast for the campaign against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which will be the most daunting offensive of the war, or in Zaporizhzhia to resist Ukrainian advances there.

Widespread fury in Russia about the blocking of Telegram and other social media channels, with some pro-Russian commentators suddenly rounding on the Kremlin and Putin with fury (mostly from outside Russia, including some based in Italy and the Gulf). We haven't seen that before.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack into Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, on the Dnipro banks, and Lukyanivske further upriver. The objective here is to push Russian forces in western Zaporizhzhia back south towards Vasylivka, control of which would give Ukraine impressive options for a larger-scaled counteroffensive. However, nobody seems to be realistically expecting that level of breakthrough. 

Some indications that Russia may resume using armoured vehicles for assaults on the front. Unarmoured assaults are triggering such casualties that even if Russia mobilised another 200,000 men, it would be unsustainable. Even using armour is a bit questionable, but it would at lest reduce casualties and improve chances of medevac.

The Russian offensive in Donetsk is absurdly daunting. They actually need to secure control full control of the Pokrovsk area (still not achieved), regain the initiative on the Dobropilla front just to the north, and then advance on Raiske to complete the encirclement of Kostiantynivka. That's a massive task in itself. Russian forces have reached the south-eastern urban parts of Kostiantynivka but have already been held up by resistance. They need the Ukrainian units that re-infiltrated Chasiv Yar just to the north-east to be neutralised to close off the flank, but somehow that's not happening. Russia would then have to advance through Kostiantynivka, Oleksievo-Drujkivka and Drujivka proper just to reach Kramatorsk, which would be a bloodbath. After a couple of years, they'd probably have to repeat the task in Slovyansk. The Russians want to make that easier by taking Lyman north-east of Slovyansk (which they've been trying to do for the better part of three years at this point and failing), then Donetske and Raigorodok and Mykolaikva, allowing them to assault Slovyansk from the north and east, possibly simultaneously with Kramatorsk.

Bearing in mind that Slovyasnsk and Kramatorsk individually are much, much bigger than Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Soledar, Toretsk etc. This is going to be insane. I can't see how Russia can do it without that full-scale mobilisation of half a million or more troops.

The US has spent about $12 billion on the conflict so far, not far off the $1 billion a day some were postulating.

Iran today launched 19 ballistic missiles, the largest number for five days, and 122 drones, the largest number for a week. They hit a joint US-Italian base in Kuwait, injuring personnel. Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia has come under repeated attack, and multiple missiles penetrated Israeli defences, with one residential area on the outskirts of Tel Aviv taking what appears to be a cluster hit. The town of Holon also took a hit. The UAE has been targeted repeatedly.

Some reports suggesting that Hezbollah forces may have tried to cross the Israeli border to attack the town of Metula. I would treat with scepticism for now, but Israeli sources are reporting a chaotic situation in the north, Israel was not anticipating ground operations in Lebanon and is struggling to put together the necessary logistics.

Fujairah oil terminal has restarted operations, allowing the UAE to export oil into the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Hormuz Strait.

ISW is saying that Russia may expand its territorial demands in Ukraine as part of any peace preconditions, possibly demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in addition to maintaining a buffer zone along the borders of at least Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. The expansion of demands may then be used as a casus belli for what now appears increasingly likely to be a mass mobilisation order in May, despite the immense risks that presents.

At the same time, Putin has apparently removed several military commanders with ties to Shoigu, possibly fearing a military coup. Shoigu himself remains safe, for now.

Apparently the USA has given Israel one week to come up with a firm plan for regime change before they start talking about winding the operation down, which has left Israel scrambling to come up with an idea. They're now using drones to hit individual roadblocks and police positions in Tehran to try to free up the population for a revolution, but there is severe doubt that's even viable, or if the regime loses Tehran does that even matter very much if they control the rest of the country.

Also speculation of a joint US-Israel spec ops strike on the Isfahan nuclear site. Iran is apparently worried about such operations, its vast size and the Zagros Mountains being a barrier to conventional invasion but also giving infiltration missions a lot of cover. The US has refused to hit the site with bombs, noting that collapsing the site would merely trap the nuclear material there and allow Iran to dig it out later on. However, a spec ops strike might have a very hard time combing the site to find the material, especially as Iran has filled in several of the entrances.

Israel has also sounded the alarm about Egyptian moving military forces into the demilitarised part of the Sinai. No idea what that's about, if Israel is teeing up another conflict already.