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Russian milbloggers are also just starting to sound the alarm about a reported troop concentration of Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, with some saying 50,000 Ukrainian troops are amassing between Kharkiv and the Belgorod Oblast border. Some of the units identified are ones that have not been in heavy combat for a while and have been withdrawn for the line for replenishment, reinforcement and training. The 82nd and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades and the 148th Artillery Brigade have also been reported in this area by some Russian sources, and elements of 3rd Corps.

Ukrainian sources are saying this is dubious at best (if not outright garbage): the 82nd and 95th have recently been in combat in Pokrovsk and the 3rd Corps has been active on the Lyman front. They're not sure what the Russians are talking about.

The Belgorod border has been identified as a weak point for a while, and Ukraine did seize ground on the Russian side of the border but it was tenuous and they never did much with it. One of the reasons for Ukraine to operate on this front is a relative lack of Russian heavy defences and the desire to destroy forward drone positions used for strikes on Kharkiv itself. However, the Ukrainian assault on Kursk, though ultimately tactically successful (it halted a Russian offensive on that sector and cost Russia - and North Korea - over 40,000 KIA in return for ~15,000 Ukrainian casualties), did not strategically achieve much and apparently the Trump administration has discouraged Ukraine from a similar operation in favour of retaking Ukrainian territory. If Ukraine can regain a significant amount of lost territory, that could change the calculus in American support and arguments on where to draw the line on territory.

It is certainly the case that multiple OSINT sources and commentators on both sides have suggested that Ukraine could undertake an offensive in 2026 (unlike last year), but this particular report sounds a bit like a mirage.

Iranian leaders are apparently wiring money out of the country at a rate of knots. It looks like something happened yesterday or today that caused Trump to lean back towards military action, and the Witkoff/Kushner/Saudi coalition is scrambling to convince him to hold off at least a few more days (apparently the Iranians were screwing around with the venue for talks, and Trump wasn't in the mood for it). Additional US assets have arrived in the Middle East, including AWACS aircraft.

The US has reissued guidance from early January that all US citizens in Iran should leave immediately, and no US personnel should consider travelling to the country.

Ukraine has hit one of Russia's major ICBM launch sites, hitting the prelaunch preparation complex at Site 105, Kapustin Yar with at least four Flamingo cruise missiles. Unconfirmed reports they were looking to disable an Oreshnik or similar-class missile being prepped for a (non-nuclear) strike on Ukraine.

The US and Russia have resumed their high-level contacts over military deployments and nuclear tests that was abandoned a couple of years ago. Apparently the first priority is to extend the New START treaty for a year or two until the US and Russia can discuss a replacement treaty (which both countries want to expand to include India, China, the UK and France).

The Giada III shadow fleet vessel has suffered engine damage after possibly being hit by drones in the Gulf of Finland.

A Russian fuel train in Tambov Oblast appears to have been completely destroyed, a huge explosion that will take days to clean up.

Russia's oil and gas revenue in January 2026 was less than half what it was one year earlier. Revenues are down over 12% over last month. Multiple Russian economists, including some previously keeping quiet, are now saying urgent action is needed to shore up the Russian economy or risk a major problem within six to nine months.

Estonia has seized a Russian shadow fleet vessel off its coast.

A Ukrainian Antonov An-124 has flown directly from Ukraine to Travis Air Force Base, California to pick up over 35 tons of military equipment and flew it directly back to Ukraine. Unclear, but this might be the first direct US-to-Ukraine air shipment of the entire conflict (everything else usually going into Poland by air and then by train or truck into Ukraine proper).

An Iranian Shahed drone has been shot down by an F-35 after straying too close to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group. File this under "unwise."

According to Trump, Modi has agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil and switch to American supplies. In return, Trump has lowered tariffs from 25% to 18%, whilst India is planning to cut its own tariffs to zero.

Whether Modi's readout on that is different remains to be seen.

Combat operations on the front continue, with a notable focus on the Kupyansk and Chasiv Yar fronts, but at a lower tempo due to the lower temperature. The so-called "energy ceasefire" Trump suggested might last a week or two has already ended, with Russia targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure near Kyiv and Kharkiv, whilst Ukraine has responded with attacks on Russian infrastructure near Belgorod.

Russia has dropped a FAB-250 fuel air bomb on a residential area in Donetsk Oblast, with no military utility at all, killing two civilians. Bizarre.

A Ukrainian Patriot missile intercepted and destroyed a Zircon "hypersonic" missile in the upper atmosphere. This isn't the first time a hypersonic has been shot down over Ukraine, but the first time the interception seems to have been caught on camera.

After a heavy strike on Ukraine's power grid knocked out power to 1,000 apartment buildings, Ukraine responded with a significant strike on Russia's power grid that left huge chunks of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts in darkness.