Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Some very dubious rumours circling that Russia sources have threatened Ukraine with nuclear strikes (overtly or less so), going back some time, and Ukraine has responded by saying that they will hit every Russian NPP within range of their borders with multiple cruise missiles and drones, which is a few. Pretty much all of them would be highly vulnerable to such strikes, and rather than a nuclear blast, could produce Chornobyl-style meltdowns and fallout plumes that could impact a huge amount of western Russia (also eastern Europe but yikes). Treat that one with caution.

There's some crazy stuff going on on the main front around Pokrovsk. The Russians have - more or less - secured Pokrovsk and advanced to Hryshyne to the NW. They then attacked out into the fields beyond but that's some of Ukraine's best-prepared defensive fortifications of the whole war, and the situation there seems to be descending into shambolic nonsense, with Russian units being ordered forwards no matter the cost and being annihilated. The Russians do have drone and artillery support here, and better AA back behind the lines, but even so they are making limited or little progress, and in some cases have been rolled back. Ukrainian units are apparently fighting into Hryshyne again, and maybe be trying to retake the settlement. Something the Ukrainians are doing now which we haven't seen this regularly is "breaking up" attacks, Russians advance in small groups, in some cases now supported by armour again, sometimes bike riders, with still the occasional horse deployment (JFC), but Ukraine uses drones to pin down one part of the group but the rest can still move. Rather than stay and support the pinned elements the rest try to move, disrupting the unit advance and usually ending with the group completely separated and then neutralised with greater ease. It makes it easier for Russians to also surrender rather than just die, because they're not in range of their comrades to be shot.

Ukraine is undertaking offensive action in Yampol, on the Lyman front, having previously established Russian forces in this area are heavily under-supplied. The Russian forces on this front are very overstretched and apparently screaming blue murder at being told to "retake" Kupyansk (which they haven't actually held since late 2022) with not much reinforcements or resupply. The fighting here is in the heavy forest belt, which is extremely unpleasant.

Ukrainian forces in eastern Zaporizhzhia have reached the main Russian minefields and are now blowing them up with drones (I suspect those terrifying remote-dropped German munitions which can blow up entire fields are being used here). The problem is that you can still miss mines this way, so demining human, canine and ground-robot teams still need to go in and clear them up. Progress is slow, but not as slow as during the Robotyne offensive when they have much less specialist equipment available.

Zelensky has proposed a pan-European defensive alliance consisting of the EU, the UK, Norway, Ukraine and Turkey. The alliance would effectively work as a mini-NATO and would ensure efficiencies in military procurement and intelligence sharing.

Ukraine has disabled the last remaining ferry over the Kerch Strait, leaving only the bridge to supply logistics in and out of Crimea.

The Feodosia terminal in Crimea has taken a big Ukrainian hit.

Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar have allegedly advanced back into the town centre. Very interesting if true, as Chasiv Yar should have totally fallen to Russian forces at least two years ago but Ukraine held on tenaciously, then managed to maintain a toehold on the far SW side of town, and now seems to be fighting back in.

Ukraine is continuing to push on the Lyman axis, pushing back Russian troops who are actually on the offensive in this sector. Quite remarkable.

Some indications of local counter-attacks even in Kostyantynivka, which is the main Russian offensive effort at present. Ukrainian forces have apparently broken up several Russian attacks by moving forwards into areas the Russians had previously believed cleared and then attacking the attackers at close quarters. Isolated events so far, but it seems to have disrupted Russian offensive efforts in the SE of the city. Some Ukrainian units are also apparently operating behind the Russian lines, as Russian lines are overstretched such that they are having difficulty keeping a continuous front into the town.

On the western Zaporizhzhia front, one claim that Novoyakovlivka has already been captured and is now fully under Ukrainian control after just a couple of days of engagement. Apparently Ukraine destroyed Russia's logistics out to miles behind the settlement, and the troops refused to make a heroic last stand there so withdrew. Pavlivka just to the south is now under attack as well. A lot of noise about this but until Kamyanske is fully retaken, it's probably a good idea not to get too excited.

Eyebrow-raising claim that Hungary was prepared to invade western Ukraine in 2022 if Russia had been more successful in the initial incursion.

My guess is that Hungary was eyeing annexing part of western Ukraine in the event of Russia taking Kyiv, so Hungary would have taken land away from Ukraine in the event of a full Russian victory. This did not materialise so Hungary stood down. Hungary would have certainly been kicked out of the EU and NATO for this, and would have faced enormous pressure to withdraw its forces. Orban also probably quickly realised that the Hungarian military would have been vastly out of its league even against Ukrainian border units and decided it was not a wise idea (and Ukraine 2026 would now make mincemeat out of them without thinking twice about it).

Ukrainian forces have fought their way into Stepnohirsk and Novoyakovlivka on the western Zaporizhzhia front, and Stepnohirsk is heavily contested with Ukrainian units in the town centre. This is a hugely key battle, and one the Russians in the sector have been warning about for months. If this area falls, Ukraine can quickly regain the positions it had during the 2023 offensive and, with vastly better drone and mine-clearing capabilities, start working towards their original goal of splitting the land bridge. This area has been denuded of Russian troops to support the Donetsk effort and they've now been sent back to shore up the area, but those reinforcements have mostly been diverted to the eastern Zaporizhzhia front. This sector is under-defended, and the Kherson sector south of the river, further west, is even less well-defended.

Ukraine appears to have retaken Milove on the border of Russia and Kharkiv Oblast, and are close to splitting the Russian control zone in Ukrainian territory in that sector in two.

Ukraine has also finally consolidated control of Vilne, which has been contested for some time.

Now reports that Ukraine has retaken the pocket containing the settlements of Sviatohirsk, Yarova, Sosnove and Oleksandrivka on the Lyman front, north-east Donetsk Oblast. That's big, it's blunting the Russian plan to envelop Slovyansk from the east and north east.

The Admiral Grigorovich missile frigate took direct hits from drones at port in Novorossiysk. The frigate is one of the largest ships remaining in the Black Sea Fleet and has been used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles into Ukraine. The extent of the damage remains unclear, though claims of it being destroyed and sunk seem exaggerated.

A Russian cargo ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain has sunk in the Sea of Azov.

The Russians are pushing hard again at Kostyantynivka, where the envelopment tactic from the south-east is starting to pay off. Russian drones are making life difficult for the Ukrainian defenders, but they are hold on tenaciously, and Russian forces are still some way from fully penetrating the south-eastern suburbs.

Ukrainian strikes appear to have massively degraded Russian production of air-defence and anti-drone weapons, leading to the current dominance of Ukrainian drone and airpower over significant stretches of the front.

The Ukrainians have indicated that 6,000 Russian soldiers have been neutralised - killed, captured or wounded - in four days. Even they seem taken aback by that and were questioning the figures, but they seem accurate. Russia has used some its biggest "meat wave" attacks in the war to date in concentrated counter-attacks in  south-western and eastern Zaporizhzhia, Kostiantynivka and on the northern front near Lyman.

Russia has been redeploying military forces from Donetsk to the Zaporizhzhia front to shore up the situation there, which is interesting.

Apparently Ukraine has now received a formal request from unspecified allies to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. They have agreed in return for Russia doing the same. Which obviously they won't.