Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Some reports that Russia has exhausted its primary reserves on the Donetsk front and has had to withdraw combat units from the front further south to plug the Lyman gap. However, Russian units arriving piecemeal without time to regroup would be cut to pieces, complicating the time it takes for Russian forces to intervene. In the meantime, Ukrainian forces continue to gain ground. It should be noted this is still a relatively restrained breakthrough, it's not comparable to the recapture of Kharkiv Oblast or pushing the Russians out of Kherson west of the river, and might only now be matching the success of the western Zaporizhzhia offensive earlier this year. It's still a huge boost to the Ukrainian tactical position, especially if they can take advantage to advance on other fronts.

If units are being pulled from the main front in Kostyantynivka that may explain Ukrainian forces seeing less Russian activity and have been able to counter-attack on that front as well. However, I'd hold on ordering the champagne just yet. Russia still has significant manpower and could pull troops from other, far less active fronts, as well as formalise the mass-mobilisation that's clearly coming. An extra 300,000 Russian troops, even rubbish raw recruits, would complicate things for the Ukrainians.

I suspect someone somewhere is taking bets on Ukraine re-attacking Chasiv Yar as well, for the sheer hell of it.

Seeing a report that the Polish government has convened an extraordinary meeting of security officials, the Ministry of National Defence and the Ministry of the Interior and Administration.

Polish intelligence is reporting that Russia may carry out an attack on Polish or Hungarian border positions under the pretext of it being a mistake whilst trying to hit Ukrainian positions near the border. This follows an attack on a Ukrainian train yesterday less than 800 metres from the Polish border.

The Freyja anti-ballistic missile system starts testing in a matter of weeks, possibly early December. Interesting to see how effective that will be.

Possibly a historical moment. A Russian unmanned surface vessel and a Ukrainian unmanned service vessel engaged in combat on the Black Sea, the first-ever recorded such engagement. The Ukrainians won, with the Russian vessel destroyed.

Some of the more excitable OSINT sources are claiming a Ukrainian counter-attack in and around Kostyantynivka, pushing some Russians back. This is the central lynchpin of the Russian offensive, so is more important than the recent successful Lyman counter-offensive. The more reliable sources are not really talking about this at the moment, so take with a pinch of salt for now.

Some reports that the Russians pulling back north of Lyman have actually crossed Zherebets River to find no supplies or fortified positions waiting for them as had been indicated, so they're either having to try to dig in best they can or keep running. The Ukrainians are pounding this area with everything they have (though the Russians are also flying dozens of glide bombs in, but these are less effective against mobile targets). Some recon elements of 3rd AFU Army Corps are already across the river and exploring the possibility of a wider-scaled strategic breakthrough, though Russian reinforcements are apparently already being shifted north to reinforce the 144th Division, which is suffering heavy losses.

Ukrainian forces south of Lyman are also moving, and Russian infiltration groups which had been causing trouble in Lyman for months may be pulling out of the town altogether and also falling back.

Unfortunately, further south, Russian aviation has brought Slovyansk and Kramatorsk within glide bomb range and are now hitting both the fortress cities with dozens of glide bombs on a daily basis. Apparently there are strong arguments about Kyiv giving the civilian evacuation order for the two cities, which are key to holding the rest of Donetsk Oblast, but a voluntary request for evacuation has already gone out. Kostyantynivka is still being contested to the south, though Russia now appears to have secured about 75% of the city. The Lyman front collapsing eliminates the threat of the fortress belt being enveloped from the north as well, at least for now.

The Houthis have overrun most of the Red Sea coast of Yemen and seized islands in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, giving them effective fire control over every vessel passing through. They have already imposed a blockade on Saudi shipping.

They also launched a significant drone attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, causing it to shut down. This is a major geopolitical disaster from the Saudi perspective. Apparently Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud called Trump twice yesterday, the second time in something of a panic, asking for American assistance and Trump told him to deal with it himself, he has enough money and American equipment. Apparently Trump then relented and allowed US intelligence sharing for targeting in the region. But evicting the Houthis from Mokha by air power is utterly impossible, the government-loyal militias seem to be giving up and Saudi Arabia is not putting ground troops into the area (because they're a bit rubbish).

The Houthis have basically secured their entire western flank, which means they can turn up the screws on Aden. If Aden falls, the internationally-recognised legitimate government falls and Yemen becomes a substantial, Iranian-allied country with a pretty big population (at around 45 million, Yemen is more populous than Saudi Arabia by about 10 million, which is an under-appreciated fact). Oman, with a tenth of the population just next door, will be bricking it, and a swift advance up the coast into Saudi Arabia towards Jeddah and Mecca is not entirely impossible (and the Saudis will be heaving a sigh of relief the most desolate desert on Earth stops the Houthis from just going straight towards Riyadh).

It's entirely possible that this will cause the Israelis and Saudis to directly ally together and try some kind of intervention because what was looking like a major geopolitical win last year is turning into a major reversal right now.