Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Ukraine has used Flamingoes to damage the Promsintez explosives plant in Chapayevsk, and also hit the Yaroslavl oil refinery.

Ukraine's 37th Marine Brigade halted a Russian assault on the Oleksandrivskyi front, neutralising 27 Russian troops and a tank.

Ukraine's 65th Mechanised Brigade also destroyed a Russian mechanised column near Robotyne. Ten Russian vehicles were destroyed. Russia appears to be using motorised columns again due to a lack of leaf cover and also because Russian soldiers have kicked up a storm of protests over survivability. With a mechanised attack, it's easier to spot and stop the vehicles, but the soldiers at least have a better chance of surviving.

To that point, Ukraine's 118th Brigade has destroyed a significant Russian mechanised push near Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhzhia region, destroying a tank and BMP. Ten Russian soldiers KIA and ten more wounded.

Ukraine drones also hit Russian positions at (deep breath) Donetsk Airport, once again destroying Tor AA systems, EW sites, fuel logistics and Shahed launchers. Russia keeps using the airport despite it being easily hit by Ukrainian forces.

Some claims that Ukrainian forces are massing for a major push to retake Huliaipole, one of the largest settlements taken by Russia in the last two years and a major anchor for Russian positions in eastern Zaporizhzhia. Losing Huliaipole might force Russian troops into a major retreat to older positions east and south, because there's not much security beyond it. However, others saying this is a feint and Ukraine's big push will come elsewhere, or their strategic reserve is being held until the main Russian offensive effort is determined. Ukrainian tanks have been seen destroying Russian defensive positions near Huliaipole, again confirming a lack of Russian drone, AT or artillery support on this front.

Ukrainian units have also been seen in Temyrivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, north-east of Huliaipole, which gives them fire control over a major resupply route.

It appears Ust-Luga may have been tripled-tapped. The facility is pretty much screwed at this point, and major repair work cannot start whilst the Ukrainians keep hitting it. One drone attack may have overflown Ust-Luga and landed on Finnish territory in error.

Heavy attacks on Crimea are continuing, with MLRS systems destroyed. Ukraine also hit one of Russia's largest chemical fertiliser companies in Tolyatti, Samara.

Ukrainian intelligence intercepts apparently confirm Russia giving Tehran direct imaging of American, British, French and Gulf air and naval bases all across the Middle East.

The Kremlin is apparently annoyed about Zelensky locking down defence agreements between Ukraine and four countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan) in a single 48-hour period.

Large protests planned in Russia against the shutting down of WhatsApp and Telegram fizzled out after significant numbers of arrests.

Confirmation that an E-3 Sentry was destroyed at Riyadh.

JP Morgan is warning of a ticking time bomb over oil. Physical scarcity of oil could unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west. The reduction in the oil supply is twice as large as in any previous crisis and will have a massive impact on Asia, with China having the largest drop in supply, though they also have storage capacity to withstand the shock. Europe will feel the pinch only in mid-April and has diverse alternate sources, but prices will still rise.

China will invade Taiwan if one of several red lines is crossed, such as Taiwan declaring independence, or a US military buildup starts (such as America landing thousands of troops or transferring certain very high-end weapons systems).

Otherwise the logistics of attacking Taiwan are formidable, Chinese losses would be high and inflict real pain on the working and middle classes for the first time since the Korean War (the pandemic aside, and the strength of the protests then scared the leadership), and though China has the military capacity to take Taiwan, it may not have the capacity to do so and simultaneously fight a major multi-theatre peer war with the United States and potential allies.

However, the big question mark is Xi, who is definitely egotistical enough to want the job done on his watch. He turns 73 this year, so whilst younger than Trump, he is still starting to get up there, and the CCP's mechanisms for recycling incompetent leaders, even powerful ones, are quite formidable. One of Xi's positions has been to have the Chinese military ready to take Taiwan by the end of 2027 (the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's armed wing being founded), and they're probably there already in terms of military strength of the navy, aircraft, drones and missile systems. However, they're still lacking carriers and their land forces have recently been denuded of resources to strengthen the navy, meaning they can surround Taiwan and may be able to land on its coasts, but it needs more resources to get tanks and troops onto the island. China also has the issue that it really needs to capture Taiwan and its semiconductor and chip factories intact, and as the war in Ukraine has shown, a major modern war fought in urban areas can easily flatten the area completely. China also knows its position in the world is in part strengthened by it not going around blowing things up like the US, which goes out the window the second they attack Taiwan (along with their economic relationships with Europe, Australia, Canada, the US, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines etc, which would cause a serious shock to the Chinese economy).

China invading Taiwan would be fairly irrational and self-harming, but given that Russia and the US have done irrational, self-harming things recently, maybe Xi wants to get in on the act. But I wouldn't put money on it.

Iranian missiles have hit Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, damaging or destroying multiple USAF KC-135 refuelling tankers. Looks like a significant hit.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is warning of a "potential escalation" this weekend.

Israel has hit Iran's Khondab Heavy Water Nuclear Complex, the Khouzestan Steel Plant and Mobarakeh Steel Plant. Iran has said this is an attack on civilian infrastructure and it will respond in kind.

The United States has used up almost one-third of its entire Tomahawk missile inventory (that's globally) in the conflict so far, sounding alarm bells in military procurement. The Tomahawk inventory assigned to CENTCOM is basically gone already.

The Ust-Luga oil terminal was ablaze 12 hours after the second drone hit. The terminal has taken a huge pounding. Residents in St. Petersburg have been advised to keep windows closed.

Early and unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian tanks have broken through to Voskresenka on the east Zaporizhzhia front. Russia does not have enough drones in this sector to stop them.

It also looks like Ukraine has liberated Aleksandrograd (which Russia took back in August) and is starting to push Russia back further.

Also some signs that Ukraine's counter-attack on the Lyman front might be reversing the momentum rather than just fending off attacks, with Ukrainian forces looking like they are pushing from Ozerne towards Yampil. Again unconfirmed but interesting.

Putin has apparently started raiding the personal financial reserves of some of the oligarchs, asking for "voluntary donations" to the SMO.

Ukraine seems to be maintaining the momentum on the Primorskoe front, having advanced 2km in several days down the bank of the Dnipro and pushing the Russian forces back into Stepnohirsk, which must now be the next Ukrainian target. This is interesting as Ukrainian counter-offensives often peter out after scoring a battlefield success, but both here and on the Zaporizhzhia front they seem to be maintaining the pressure week after week.

Ust-Luga is still ablaze.