Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

The Ukrainian Black Forest Brigade is inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces in the Donbas. They use recon drones and even some on-foot infiltrators to get behind Russian lines and then call in HIMARS, Storm Shadow, drone or ATACMS strikes on high-value targets. They use British-supplied Tekever AR3 recon drones which can stay in the air for 16 hours at a time and, through both Ukrainian and British adjustments, can overcome more forms of Russian EW jamming. The BFB likes to use Storm Shadow because, in their platoon commander's words, "HIMARS can cause chaos and there's a lot of people running around; with Storm Shadow there's just a single big boom and then a hole in the ground where the target was; no one was left moving."

The BRB destroyed a Nebo-M radar station worth over $100 million in eastern Ukraine in October; Ukraine does not believe Russia can replace this easily as there are only nine others in existence (some deployed way behind the lines back in Russian territory, and not pointed at Ukraine).

Ukraine has provided what appears to be conclusive evidence of North Korean troops taking part in assault operations. They used a "human Wave" attack to secure a trenchline near Kurakhove, but the Ukrainians retook it. Many of the North Koreans were killed as they tried to cross open fields in full view of drones and even machine gun positions. Most importantly, these attacks are not in Kursk (so Russian territory) but in Donetsk Oblast; South Korea said it would take the deployment of North Korean forces on internationally-recognised Ukrainian territory very seriously, though they are distracted at the moment.

Potentially good news, the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has launched a counter-strike on Shevchenko. The Russians captured the village via an opportunistic or lucky attack whilst forces were rotating, but this means they haven't managed to dig in. The town has fortified layers and trenches of defence and the Ukrainians have recaptured some of these positions. The Russians have not yet brought up reinforcements but the fighting is fierce. If Ukraine can dislodge them from Shevchenko and reoccupy the defences with heavy equipment, that secures the southern flank of Pokrovsk. That's a bit touch and go at the moment. Ukraine has deployed the commander of the 2022 Kherson offensive to Pokrovsk to stabilise the situation.

Ukraine has field-tested Tryzub, a train and ground battery-mounted laser cannon (!). The weapon has destroyed test-ordinance at a height of 2km. Unconfirmed suggestion it is a field-deployment of an adaptation of the British Sea Dragon laser AA system.

Russia has freighted a bunch of 60-year-old T-62 tanks to Ukraine.

Latest from Syria is that the transitional government has asked the Russian government to withdraw all military forces from the country whilst the government takes under advisement a request to continue a lease of the Tartus naval base on existing or renegotiated terms. Russia seems to be complying.

The US has been studying closing footage of the Oreshnik ballistic missile and identified problems with it, including the warheads shedding "far too much" of their speed in the final closing stages. The warheads also wobbled like hell, giving them only a 6% chance of hitting the target. Not a problem in ICBM mode, but a problem if they're being used as a conventional warhead delivery system (along with their insane cost per shot).

Russia attacked again on the Kharkiv front near Borova and were defeated by the 77th Ukrainian Airmobile Brigade. The 17th Tank Brigade repulsed a combined Russian-North Korean assault in Kursk. Russia also launched a massive assault on positions held by the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade near Siversk, but fortunately two other heavy formations (the 54th Mechanized Brigade and the 81st Airmobile) were in the area, which Russia didn't seem to be aware of, so, extremely rarely in the conflict, they attacked a position with either inferior or approximately equal numbers of attackers, and consequently were defeated. 3 tanks, 12 APC/IFVs, 3 MLRS (unusual to lose this many in one go on the front), 1 other artillery system and 40 motorcycles were destroyed.

Russia has advanced south of Pokrovsk, taking Shevchenko (albeit after five days or so of attacks). This is quite disappointing as the Ukrainian defence east of Pokrovsk has been heroic and incredibly costly for the Russians, but the failure to hold the south means that the city will come under attack from that direction instead, and as the Ukrainians switch their defensive approach to the south, the east may suffer.

Ukraine is still well-placed to defend Pokrovsk but it depends on manpower. They may choose to cede the city rather than obliterate it in a pitched battle, especially if the city comes under assault from two different directions. That said, turning this into another Avdiivka or Bakhmut could hold up the Russians well into 2025, provided Ukraine has enough troops.

Keith Kellogg has suggested direct talks between Zelensky and Putin could be held in Washington DC. Mark this as "unlikely" for now.

Ukraine has upgraded its M113 APCs with a new fire control module, allowing the exterior guns to be fired from inside the vehicle, improving survivability.

Russia is pulling its S-400 missile systems out of Syria. Khmeimim Airbase is being shuttered, the situation in Tartus is less clear but indications are of huge amounts of packing going on.

Russian troops retreating to their bases have been shown "the shoe" by victorious Syrian forces, a noted Arabic insult.

More than 80 missiles and drones were shot down during today's attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, including the use of MANPADS to hit fast-moving cruise missiles. 200 Shahed drones were involved in today's attack, with 80 shot down and 105 jammed by electronic warfare. 99 of those fell out of the sky on Ukrainian territory and have been recovered.

The 1295th Central Tank Reserve Base in Vladivostok, Russia is apparently now completely exhausted of all useable equipment. Analysts have been sifting through all the latest satellite imagery and what's left behind is totally useless, rusted-out hulks missing turrets, engines and wheels. There's maybe a few hulls that could be used for spare parts but that's it.

Several minor bases ran out of equipment ages ago (the 246, 240, 342, 835, 7033, 187 etc), but the 1295th was one of the major stockpiles of ex-Soviet equipment, with close to a thousand serviceable and reactivable vehicles, and maybe something similar in terms of vehicles that could be usefully cannibalised, back in early 2022. Now they're all completely gone.

What is interesting is that Russia has stopped fielding new/reserviced T-55s, despite still having hundreds in serviceable condition. Given that drones go through them like hot knives through butter, they seem to have switched them to converting the chassis into BTS-4 ARVs. Stripping the gun and heavier equipment makes them much faster and (marginally) more survivable.

The 2456/103rd storage base is the next-worst one, so OSINT sources are now going over the latest imagery.

Ukraine has launched drone attacks on bases around Grozny in Chechnya, Kadyrov appears upset.

A Russian engineer who worked on modernising cruise missiles has been assassinated in Moscow.

Heavy assaults in Kursk and Kharkiv oblasts are continuing, Ukraine has given up a small amount of ground in the former, seems to be holding in the latter. A Russian supply warehouse containing vast amounts of supplies for the military has burned down in Novosibirsk, apparently not a drone strike but sabotage.

First confirmed use of a fibre-optic drone to destroy a Russian vehicle. These are drones with spools of fibre optics to overcome jamming. They have a fairly obviously limited range, so impressive going.

The United States has passed a ban on recognising any occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian.

Poland has said it has considered France's plan to deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine with interest, but has no plans to commit to it at this time.

OSINT sources are monitoring a steady build-up of Russian equipment between Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia front. They believe a Russian offensive in this sector is possible to probable in the coming weeks, despite likely suboptimal weather conditions.

NATO analysis is that there have now been over 1 million KIA and wounded in the war to date.

The Pokrovsk sector is looking shakier than a few days ago, despite heavy Russian losses there recently.

Some evidence that Ukraine provided drones to the HTS forces in Syria and Ukrainian special forces may have assisted in a surprise attack on a Russian-held airbase.

Wagner forces operating in Africa are reporting that they have been cut off from resupply due to the situation in Syria, and urge the Russian government to conclude deals with the new Syrian regime to allow the continued operation of the airfields, otherwise resupply to the Wagner forces in Africa is effectively impossible.

"Rockets" have hit the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex on the Sea of Azov. Sounds like it was actually six ATACMS.

The Transneft Refinery in Bryansk has taken a heavy hit, lots of fire and explosions.

Attacks on the Dnipro river islands in Kherson Oblast continue. Ukraine destroyed two boats and two vehicles involved an an attempted amphibious assault.

Putin's ideological mentor Alexander Dugin has heavily criticised Turkey, saying that Erdogan stabbed Putin in the back and will pay a price for that.

Russian economic insiders suggesting that the Central Bank has gained permission from Putin to raise interest rates to 23%, from 21%. This is woefully less than they were arguing for, and at this point is sticking a plaster over the iceberg hole in the Titanic.

Hungary has proposed a Christmas ceasefire for the conflict along with a good-faith prisoner swap ahead of negotiations. The Ukrainian side was unreceptive. Ukraine has issued a report that 109 Ukrainian prisoners of war were unlawfully executed, either just after capture or at Russian holding facilities.

Ukraine's defence sector is reporting significant growth amidst government investment, orders and overseas investment; in some areas, Ukraine has even been able to export military equipment not useful in the current conflict, or small demonstration models to western countries that could be used to inspire larger orders once the war is over. Ukraine is specialising in small, cheap but effective autonomous drones and cruise missiles with a variety of operating ranges a far lower cost than existing models. 

Sevastopol is apparently under a "significant" drone and missile attack.

Russia is continuing to import small arms and ammunition from western countries via Georgia and countries in Central Asia.

Electricity supplies from Russia to the Republic of Abkhazia (a Russian-occupied area in Georgia) have been cut off to pressure the population into accepting an investment agreement with Russia that would effectively give Russia full control over the Abkhazian economy. So far the people are holding out, and popular support for reunification with Georgia seems to be growing. The Georgian government is rather preoccupied at the moment, though. 

The Ukrainians have been counter-attacking near Pokrovsk, using special forces and apparently even paratroopers (!) who land behind the lines and attack positions in close coordination with the frontal assault and drones. This suggests AA defence over the Pokrovsk front has been significantly degraded.

Canada has supplied Ukraine with half a billion dollars of equipment and support, their largest investment to date. The Ukrainian government says it now has enough ammunition, drones and vehicles to continue fighting at current or even an increased tempo until the second half of 2025, regardless of decisions made in Washington next month.

The heaviest fighting is now in Kursk, where Russian forces are flattening their own villages whilst trying to recapture them. Some advances have been made, but Ukraine is holding the main line. Russian losses are very high, but some Ukrainian troops are reporting low morale and are dubious of the military value of this operation, despite inflicting crippling losses on the Russian forces and having successfully established viable defensive lines in very good time (a weakness of Ukraine versus Russia in the conflict so far).

Heavy fighting also continues in the Pokrovsk sector, around Kurakhove and along the Kupyansk front, despite a recent major Ukrainian victory there due to Russian manpower shortages (the first time this seems to have happened in the war, and something analysts are carefully monitoring). The attacks on Chasiv Yar also continue.

Ukraine has confirmed that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action in the entire conflict so far. This is roughly one-fifth of Russian KIA, according to the best estimates.

Ukraine has fielded a new drone, "Sea Baby," which is fully autonomous. During an engagement over the Black Sea, it was apparently jammed, managed to evade the jamming and then shot a helicopter with its automatic cannons, causing casualties among the crew, before completing its mission.

The director of the Russian prison camp Olenivka, where 53 Ukrainian POWs were reportedly executed in July 2022, has been killed by a car bomb in Donetsk.

Russia has made a renewed push for the Dnipro river mouth islands, but several amphibious assaults in speedboats were destroyed by Ukrainian fire and drones.

Heavy fighting in Kursk. A Russian column attacking the 225th Assault Battalion was destroyed, but the Russians did regain some ground.

Five more Ukrainian children kidnapped into Russia have returned home.

Germany has sent mixed messages that it could provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine as part of a wider push to put more pressure on Putin to end the war, but only in concert with the United States. This was later walked back by others spokesmen. Poland has indicated it believes there may be some momentum in Russia for a move to negotiations in January or February. Other commentators have suggested that Trump will lean on the Saudis to increase oil production to seriously hurt Russia's bottom line.

An additional S-400 battery was damaged in Crimea.

The Russians attacked a service vehicle from the International Atomic Energy Agency heading to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, apparently "accidentally." Fortunately the vehicle was armoured enough to resist the explosion.

The collapse of Russian influence in Syria continues to be fiercely debated in the Russian information space. Some bloggers are saying this signals an end to the "multipolar world project" and that Russia will have to leave its bases in Syria and consequently probably reduce its activities in Africa. Others believe the new rulers in Syria can be brought on board, or new bases opened in Iran to compensate.