Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Some interesting hard data on the front. Ukraine's 37th Marine Brigade near Oleksandrivka repulsed dozens of attacks from Russian forces. 274 Russian soldiers with killed or wounded, three tanks, three artillery systems, one IFV and sixteen other vehicles, along with 135 drones, were destroyed. In return, Russia advanced exactly zero point zero kilometres in a month.

This is a change in the tide, where a previous sacrifice of resources a year or two ago would have seen Russia achieve similar losses for advancing a few dozen or hundred metres at least.

Ukraine has driven Russian forces back 8km down the bank of the Dnipro and now seem poised to fully recapture Prymorske. Russia has been curiously inept on this front given it's importance to their overall objectives, including bringing Zaporizhzhia city within tube artillery range (which they're currently going in the wrong direction to achieve).

Iran has launched a military operation over the Strait of Hormuz, targeting at least two ships (a South Korean cargo vessel and a UAE tanker) and the port of Fujairah, as well as launching drones and cruise missiles towards Dubai. UAE air defences have engaged. Qatar has gone on full alert.

Two US destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were ordered to leave and then fired upon by Iranian vessels, though the Americans have not confirmed this.

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Reading through the suggestions of a coup against Putin in more detail.

Apparently there was a significant shift in Putin's security starting in early April. Public appearances were scaled back significantly, and Putin and his family stopped staying at their Moscow residences, instead staying inside the security cordon at the Kremlin or in more remote, easily-sealed-off compounds in the countryside. Independent Russian media outlet Important Stories reports that the internal security level was raised around 1 March, possibly for the first time since Prigozhin's would-be coup.

This may tie in with other rumours that the Russian military was ordered to massively prioritise the security of all of their drones in particular, with every single drone now having a significant chain of identification from assembly to battlefield deployment. This in theory prevents a drone being used against Putin without its ID being known. This may also be contributing the slowdown in Russian drone production, and why some elite Russian drone operators have been sent into direct combat (a virtual death sentence).

Apparently there was a tense meeting in the Kremlin in late December where security officials traded blame for the assassination of a Russian lieutenant general (presumably Igor Kirillov) and were unable to formulate a plan to stop further assassinations by explosives or drones, to Putin's frustration.

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There are also suggestions that Russia's increasing internet clampdown and Putin's reforms of the Federal Protective Service and National Guard might be a prelude to a full "Iranianisation" of Russia, with the FSP and NG forming an IRGC analogue. Interestingly, the FSB appears to be outside of this scope, suggesting that Putin's distrust of the FSB ever since the initial invasion of Ukraine went badly wrong has not been repaired in the four years since.

Putin has also reportedly returned to micromanaging the war on almost every front, despite a lack of military training, which might explain a great deal about some of Russia's insane decisions. 

Ukraine is claiming that FP1 drones penetrated Moscow's air defence cordons overnight, flying over 10 S-400 batteries and around 80 Pantsir and Tor systems before they were finally engaged. FP1s are not known for stealth, so its unclear why they were not engaged.

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Some Russian sources openly talking about a possible coup or "early retirement" for Putin. Credibility is unclear but there's definitely more chatter than normal. Meanwhile, other sources saying Putin has considered the use of a "demonstrative" tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, possibly on Russian-occupied territory. This was shot down previously by Biden and Xi, but its unclear what consequences Trump would enforce, or if Putin would believe him.

Ukranian drones hitting Mariupol again, destroying a Russian military stockpile near the old Azovstal complex.

Ukraine hitting Primorsk port, damaging a Karakurt-class missile ship, a patrol ship and a shadow fleet tanker.

The Russian refinery at Perm is still ablaze after four days.

Russian Iskander missile launches from Crimea have dropped hugely after Ukraine targeted launchers on the peninsular, destroying dozens of them.

Two Russian shadow fleet vessels hit by drones at Novorossiysk.