Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Russian channels claiming that Ukraine has control of the north and west of Stepnohirsk, gloomy about Russia holding the settlement. They think Prymorske will go as well and Russia may not have good options to stop them north of Kamyanske. Taking Kamyanske will be the really decisive battle in this sector and determine if this is a localised counter-attack or a more serious counter-offensive that could imperil the land corridor.

At the same time the land corridor has been under effective Ukrainian interdiction for a week, with at least 10% of military and supply movements on the Mariupol - Donetsk City highway being destroyed. Somewhat less on the main land corridor rail and road route, but starting to risk. The "Crimea under siege" narrative is really starting to play.

There's a real argument in Russian Telegram-land, as different bloggers argue about Kupyansk. Whilst everyone agrees Russia has made some advances back towards Kupyansk, maps showing them back in control of the northern suburbs are being argued over, with several of the more reliable ones claiming that Russian forces have not reached Kupyansk itself beyond some recon units. The reporting on this front seems to have become highly propagandised after Gerasimov's batshit insane claims of Russian forces already being miles to the west of Kupyansk to Putin were made public.

Ukrainian intelligence has assessed that Russia is putting significant pressure on Belarus to allow Russian ground forces to invade Ukraine from Russian soil (again). Lukashenko has been resisting such overtures, but Russian military planners have already created operational plans for offensive action from Belarusian soil, perhaps quite far west to open an unexpected front. Ukraine believes Belarus has not committed to such an operation, but they are wavering more than they have in the past.

Russia has claimed that some Ukrainian drones used in operations against Russian ports on the Baltic were launched from Latvia. The Latvian government has denied such claims.

Allegedly Xi Jinping told Trump that Putin either regrets, or soon will, invading Ukraine.

Russian State Duma deputy Renat Suleymanov has floated the idea of ending the war in Ukraine. He believes that Russia cannot sustain a 40% defence budget and this will cause massive economic problems in Russia that might negate even a major victory on the battlefield, and reintegrating hundreds of thousands of PTSD-suffering troops is going to be a massive challenge.

Ukrainian forces now seem to control half or more of Stepnohirsk, with Russian forces retreating into the southern urban part of the town.

Recapturing Stepnohirsk would be a significant tactical victory, with larger strategic possibilities for a larger southward offensive. Heavier Russian reinforcements are arriving in that area but have so far not been effective.

Russia's largest chip-maker has posted staggering losses, with its 2024-25 losses being 47 times greater than its revenue, a catastrophic state of affairs. How much runway they have before collapsing altogether is unclear, but Russian economics are starting to push the panic button on that.

Russian Telegram commentators are furious about Ukrainian drones penetrating Moscow's three defensive AA rings, which currently consist of several hundred Pantsir and Buk systems and dozens of S-300 and S-400 missiles, plus at least one and maybe two S-500s (maybe the only two in existence, after another one got splashed in Ukraine). Though only a few missiles and drones got through from an estimated ~170, they caused significant damage.

Ukrainian drones armed with multiple ground-to-air rockets strafed a Russian naval base in Crimea. These have been used in battle before but not publicised like this.

Ukraine has hit Moscow with the largest aerial assault since the conflict began. BARS cruise missiles were used, possibly the first time Ukrainian cruise missiles have been fired at the Russian capital. This was in direct retaliation for strikes on Kyiv last week. Some of the Ukrainian missiles and drones carried the message "MOSCOW NEVER SLEEPS."

The Ukrainian drones and missiles hit multiple targets in and around Moscow, including Sheremetyevo Airport, disrupting flight operations there. The Solnechnogorsk petroleum products loading station in the village of Durykino was also hit, and the Elma technopark in Zelenograd. The MKB Raduga Plant in the Moscow area was also attacked, and a refinery in Moscow. One explosion created a fire directly underneath a raised highway support, resulting in the entire highway segment subsiding and being closed until repairs can be affected.

Russian Telegram channels are reporting that Russia has redeployed some 65,000 troops to the western Zaporizhzhia axis and they've so far accomplished little. Ukraine continues to assault Stepnohirsk and is attacking towards Scherbaky and Pyatykhatkhy, with battles taking place near Stepovoe.

Gerasimov has apparently told Putin that Russian forces have advanced west of Kupyansk towards Shevchenkove, 28 kilometres away. Russian units have in fact only just reached the outskirts of Kupyansk (again) after heavy engagements and are nowhere near Shevchenkove.

Ukrainians have been buying up Russian Telegram channels left unprofitable and abandoned after the government blocked the app.

Investigations have indicated that a 37-year-old Russian IT worker, Alexander Okunev, set himself on fire next to Kaliningrad's WWII Soviet victory memorial on the three-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. He wrote a memo calling for peace throughout the world and an end to the war in Ukraine. The authorities quickly covered up the incident but it has now come to light.

Analysts looking at the supply situation to Crimea, indicating it was dire before the recent interdiction but now it is becoming desperate. One slither of hope for the Russians is that the M-14 is very long and Ukraine can't keep the whole length under constant attack, and there are other countryside roads smaller vehicles can take to (not much help for heavy military equipment, obviously). So it's not quite fully closed off yet. Once it is, a large-scale Russian military presence in Crimea becomes difficult to sustain and the troops in the land bridge, particularly in Kherson Oblast, might start seeing supply problems.

Secretary of the Army Driscoll, a close friend and ally of JD Vance, has spent some time in Ukraine and seems to have gone from a Ukraine-sceptic to believer. He was positively gushing about Ukraine's realtime command-and-control software, rating it as superior to anything the USA has, and remarkable for integrating so much kit from different countries into one cohesive framework. He also highly rates Ukraine's drone expertise.

Ukrainian forces operating south-east of Prymorske appear to be in position to help the ongoing battle for Stepnohirsk. This section of the front is interesting as it is hard against the Dnipro, meaning they don't have to worry as much about their right flank. The Ukrainian target here is clearly the larger town of Kamyanske but it's going to be a hard fight back into it.

Confirmation that another commander in charge of the Bucha Massacre has been identified and eliminated. Dmitriy Issayev was shot in the courtyard of his apartment block in Kaluga on May 7th.

Ukraine seems to have sourced Chinese FN-16 MANPADS from somewhere, as some Ukrainian AA units on the front have recently been photographed with them.

Hungary has filed a protest against the Russian government for targeting the western city of Zakarpattia in recent strikes, where a large Hungarian minority lives. 

Russia has placed extensive anti-drone defences around its submarine pens on the Kamchatka Peninsula, which is over 7400km from Ukraine.