Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Russia launched a major attack overnight on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian targets. Ukraine shot down about 75% of the missiles, including using Patriot to destroy Kinzhal "hypersonic" missiles. The damage was still significant.

In response, the United States, France and Britain have jointly authorised Ukraine to use any of their weapons on any legitimate target within range, including on Russian soil.

This has been signalled for some time, and Russia withdrew major military assets out of ATACMS, glide bomb and SCALP/Storm Shadow range some time ago, but there are limits on that and some weapons stockpiles can't be moved without basically making it impossible to resupply the front line in a timely manner.

The ruble is now worth 1 American cent. The Russian Central Bank has stated there has been a significant increase of prices through October which is "not a good sign." No shit, Sherlock. This is the central bank prepping the groundwork for another interest rate hike in December from 21% to whatever they think is needed. The problem is that what is needed may be substantially higher than that, but too large a hike will trigger a meltdown in the economy which Putin will be gunning to avoid. If they don't do that, then it will be wholly ineffectual.

Sberbank has raised the rates on basic mortagages by 3.5%, with the minimum rates for loans for housing under construction will be 28.4%. 

Krymsk Airbase in Krasnodar Krai took a pounding from a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack, some reports saying, "dozens" of drones were involved. This would be an unusually large attack by Ukrainian standards. Several ground explosions, scale of the damage unclear.

Recent Ukrainian drones have been focusing on GRAD MLRS systems in Donetsk Oblast. There has been a significant reduction in Russian artillery piece manufacture and decline recently, but a large increase in MLRS production orders (see Perun's latest video). Reportedly this is down to increasing shell shortages but the much bigger problem of replacement barrels. Russia is pushing for increased rocket artillery instead, but MLRS ranges are a problem and the lack of target discrimination is a bigger problem.

US shell production has surpassed 50,000 a month and recent infrastructure improvements mean its should surpass 100,000 a month in January. France has delivered 600 AASM extended-range guided bombs to Ukraine in the time it has produced 1,200 new ones, enough to both restock its own armory and continue providing new bombs to Ukraine.

In Dalnje, Donetsk, a mismatched armoured clash took place where a single Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 ambushed a Russian column of multiple tanks and IFVs. The Russian suffered multiple vehicle losses.

Ukrainian special forces have apparently succeeded in killing Captain Valery Trankovsky of the 41st Missile Boat Brigade in Sevastopol. He was blamed for a series of missile destroyer attacks on Ukraine with Kalibr cruise missiles that killed dozens of civilians.

European countries delivered 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2024 so far, but plan to deliver 500,000 more in just December 2024 and January 2025.

For the first time, the EU has created a joint defence procurement system to apply economies of scale to benefit all member state for arms purchases. €11 billion is being committed to the purchase of anti-air systems, fighting vehicles and artillery ammunition, alongside additional aircraft. Some will be spent internally, some on arms from abroad (most notably the USA).

Mike Waltz, a key Trump advisor and possibly about to become formal national security advisor, has taken a hawkish view on Russia, although apparently as a way of quickly ending the Ukrainian conflit so the US can pivot to China. He has pointed out that Lithuania is now buying oil and gas from Texas and Louisiana, as are other European powers, at Russia's expense and to the enrichment of the United States. Waltz wants to take that to the next level and enforce energy sanction son Russia and remove limitations on long-range weapon use to "force him to the table."

Major political unrest in Abkhazia, in Georgia, after the administration tried to ratify an exclusive investment deal with Russia. Opposition groups have occupied the parliament building.

A captured Russian soldier has said that training the North Korean recruits has not gone smoothly. One fired a grenade launcher at the ground, killing himself and several other NK soldiers.

Olaf Scholz has spoken by telephone with Putin for the first time in two years. Scholz emphasised German and European support for Ukraine was undimmed and urged him to withdraw his troops and end the pain that both countries are suffering. I think we can assume Putin was not immediately moved to comply. Scholz spoke to Zelensky before and after the telephone call.

The Russian government is threatening the International Atomic Agency for making "negative comments" about safety the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and said they can be removed if they don't shut up.

Japanese advanced demining equipment is currently operating in areas regained by Ukraine, resulting in a greatly speeded-up disposal of mines. Unfortunately the equipment is too large and ungainly to be used closer to the combat zone.

Russia has lost five mechanised columns in Kursk. They launched successive attacks down the same stretch of road which Ukraine had pre-zeroed. The losses have not been fully calculated yet.

Russia also attempted an attack on another sector in Kursk by launching a simultaneous assault by road and a flanking attack across a river. The flanking attack was mistimed, allowing the Ukrainians to destroy each part of the attacking force in turn. After the attack Russia boldly proclaimed that the town of Glushkovo was in Russian hands, which Ukraine agreed with, since it had never captured it in the first place.

There's an unconfirmed report that Putin has given his generals a new deadline of 20 January 2025 (Trump's inauguration) for the recapture of Kursk.

This is older news from last year, but Mosfilm Studios handed over military hardware they had in storage for the production of films to the army. 28 T-55 tanks, eight PT-76 tanks, six APCs and eight tractors from the 1950s were handed over. These vehicles were refurbished and sent to the battlefield.

Russia launched a new attack on the Kupyansk front, using Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms to try to confuse the defending forces. Not being idiots (and allegedly some of the advancing Russian soldiers could not speak Ukrainian), the Ukrainians identified the threat and eliminated it. 15 vehicles were destroyed and the Russian assault was pushed back.

Russian researchers ROMIR have made the extraordinary claim that inflation may have peaked to over 70% in the last few weeks, massively outstretching even the most insane internal and external calculations. Economists think that the Russian State Bank will have to raise interest rates from 21% in early December, maybe sooner, and it might be more dramatic than people are expecting.

In Novosibirsk, Russian soldiers staged a riot in their barracks and then fled to avoid being sent to Ukraine.

Belarusian air defences reportedly engaged Russian Shahed drones that flew into their territory "accidentally," out of a concern of them hitting Belarusian targets by accident. Twelve drones penetrated the border at once, possibly a new record.

Ukraine has been able to redeploy the 2S7 Psion mobile artillery piece, a heavy gun firing 203mm shells. Ukraine exhausted these in 2022 but has received an undisclosed number of replacements from the United States.

Mark Rutte believes that NATO deliveries to Ukraine in the closing weeks of 2024 and opening of 2025, combined with the aid the US has sent recently and ongoing deliveries of shells from the Czech initiative, will allow Ukraine to continue fighting for a considerable time through 2025, possibly the whole year. If South Korea agrees to supply new weapons to Ukraine, it could keep Ukraine afloat into 2026 and maybe even 2027 even if US support is cut after January. Possibly optimistic, as the South Korean administration will also have to calculate its own response to Trump's re-election and its need for US support.

NATO Military Committee Chair Rob Bauer has confirmed that the only reason NATO has not entered the conflict is because of Russia's nuclear arsenal. If they didn't, then NATO would have "kicked them out of Ukraine" long ago.

Putin has declined to attend the G20 summit in Rio, perhaps being less sure that ICC member Brazil won't arrest him.

Ukraine has developed fake M-777 artillery guns that not only resemble the real guns, but can even simulate firing. Apparently Russian drones had gotten better at spotting guns because of how long they sit in a location and do not fire, so hopefully this will increase their effectiveness.

Russian state television has developed new nicknames for Trump, calling him "Ginger" and "Donya."

John Thune's election as Senate Majority Leader has been greeted enthusiastically by some observers, noting him as a pro-Ukraine hawk who favours continued aid and rejects American withdrawal from the world stage. How much impact he can have remains to be seen.

Russian state television broadcasting nude pictures of Melania to "welcome Trump back to the White House" is an interesting move.

Oh, Trump's not talking about it for geopolitical reasons, but internal ones. He either aims to say screw it to term limits and go for a third run in 2028 and get his pet Supreme Court to come up with whatever reason he deems for it, or he plans to set up a dynasty and have some like-minded cretin inherit power after him, by fair means or foul (personally I think it's a stretch Trump reaches 2028, at least with his marbles fully intact, his mental degradation since 2020, let alone 2016, is stark).

He knows that will be controversial, but he believes that the overwhelming majority of the American public can be bought off by cheap prices at the pumps (amongst other things). Halving current gas prices will be a massive, palpable and measurable win for him even if he achieves bugger all else. And the American oil billionaires may fancy themselves oligarchs-in-waiting, but they haven't learned the lesson from Russia that "oligarch" means "the President's bitches," yet.