Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Iranian missiles have hit Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, damaging or destroying multiple USAF KC-135 refuelling tankers. Looks like a significant hit.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is warning of a "potential escalation" this weekend.

Israel has hit Iran's Khondab Heavy Water Nuclear Complex, the Khouzestan Steel Plant and Mobarakeh Steel Plant. Iran has said this is an attack on civilian infrastructure and it will respond in kind.

The United States has used up almost one-third of its entire Tomahawk missile inventory (that's globally) in the conflict so far, sounding alarm bells in military procurement. The Tomahawk inventory assigned to CENTCOM is basically gone already.

The Ust-Luga oil terminal was ablaze 12 hours after the second drone hit. The terminal has taken a huge pounding. Residents in St. Petersburg have been advised to keep windows closed.

Early and unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian tanks have broken through to Voskresenka on the east Zaporizhzhia front. Russia does not have enough drones in this sector to stop them.

It also looks like Ukraine has liberated Aleksandrograd (which Russia took back in August) and is starting to push Russia back further.

Also some signs that Ukraine's counter-attack on the Lyman front might be reversing the momentum rather than just fending off attacks, with Ukrainian forces looking like they are pushing from Ozerne towards Yampil. Again unconfirmed but interesting.

Putin has apparently started raiding the personal financial reserves of some of the oligarchs, asking for "voluntary donations" to the SMO.

Ukraine seems to be maintaining the momentum on the Primorskoe front, having advanced 2km in several days down the bank of the Dnipro and pushing the Russian forces back into Stepnohirsk, which must now be the next Ukrainian target. This is interesting as Ukrainian counter-offensives often peter out after scoring a battlefield success, but both here and on the Zaporizhzhia front they seem to be maintaining the pressure week after week.

Ust-Luga is still ablaze.

Ukraine has finally taken Berezove on the east Zaporizhzhia front. They've had it partially surrounded for weeks and were advancing past it on both sides, whilst leaving an escape corridor for the Russian troops. Whether they took it or were neutralised is unclear, but that's a pretty big win on that front.

Ukrainian drones hit Ust-Luga for the second day in a row, setting the terminal ablaze again. They also hit the Kirishi refinery, also in Leningrad Oblast, which refines around 6% of Russia's entire oil output, putting it out of action. This seems a deliberate strategy to make sure Russia does not benefit from oil revenues during the Iran conflict.

Another Russian shadow fleet tanker took a direct hit whilst in the Bosphorus, sustaining significant damage.

Russia's entire oil refinery output dropped by around 40% on its worst day in recent weeks due to Ukrainian drones shutting down multiple facilities

Zelensky has scored a nice PR victory by being feted in Riyadh and having high-level meetings with the Saudi government. Ukraine has agreed to provide drone expertise to the Gulf countries, potentially in return for major investments in rebuilding Ukraine after the war.

Three oil tankers now confirmed destroyed in the attacks on Ust-Luga this week.

Ukraine has scored a major battlefield success at Kostiantynivka, the next major target for Russia after Pokrovsk. Russian soldiers are annoyed because they are attacking up a narrow and easily-outflanked corridor into the city, because Russia can't close the eastern and NE approaches because Ukraine is somehow holding onto the outer suburbs of Chasiv Yar, and Russia can't advance until they are cleared.

One analysis showing that Ukraine has successfully hollowed-out Russia's air defence along long stretches of the front, particularly by hitting Crimea hard so AD units are pulled from near the actual combat front to defend Crimea against a naval invasion (which is never going to happen, but the idea scares the Russians), which makes hitting the front lines with drones and aircraft much easier. This is now having a serious impact on the Russian positions. In contrast, short and medium-range Ukrainian AD remains reasonably intact along the front (although Patriot supplies remain low), with anti-drone measures becoming increasingly effective.

Iran claiming a shoot-down of an F/A-18 over the Iranian coast.

An Israeli industrial facility in the Negev has taken a direct hit from Iranian drones. Some claims that Israel has started rationing its interceptors.

Qeshm Island may be on the US hitlist. With Kharg too difficult to take, Qeshm near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz is arguably a more "gettable" target. However, it's much larger and more heavily populated and would take substantial forces to capture.

Some American logistics experts pointing out that the US has nothing like the logistics in theatre to support an attack on either island or the invasion of the Iranian mainland.

More than 300 US troops have now been wounded since operations began.

Ukraine has responded with a large drone assault on multiple Russian targets, with over 250 drones reported in the strike (which is very large for Ukraine).

Ukraine has blown up two Zircon missiles in their launcher in Crimea, causing a substantial explosion. 7 Russian casualties reported, and the loss of the two Zircons and the launcher is very expensive.