Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Tiste Simeon, on 09 March 2026 - 08:54 PM, said:

Ukraine rotates its anti-drone teams off the line for R&R regularly, it's a pretty stressful job, since if you miss or get it wrong, an apartment building in Kyiv might be getting blown up or power might be cut off to half a city. But it's also not the most technical job, there's a lot of people trained to fire a machine gun out the back of a chopper or off the back of a pickup truck, or increasingly using those British-built anti-drone microdrones, which sometimes sit on the ground until a Shahed wanders into its field of view and then automatically blows it out of the sky with minimal oversight.

So there's a lot of Ukrainian anti-Shahed teams sitting around off the line who can pack up and go to the Gulf. This is also important because it earns them a ton of goodwill. IIRC, a couple of the Gulf States by themselves were talking about underwriting 20-30% of Ukraine's ultimate rebuilding costs, so staying on their goodside is a good thing.

Ukraine also desperately needs Patriot missile refills from America, so sending their teams to help protect American soldiers earns them goodwill from the USA (probably not Trump, who'll forget about this in five minutes, but still).

Iran has launched over 120 drones in one day, an sharp uptick from the previously declining number.

Israel has suggested that Iran only has 120 missile launchers available and this number should come down quickly. However, sceptics believe the number is much higher, especially since Iran can launch the longer-ranged missiles from north-east Iran, where the US and Israel have failed to make a single attack as yet.

Some analysts suggesting that since the United States took twenty years to replace the Taliban with the Taliban, and only nine days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei, this demonstrates a market improvement in American strategic efficiency.

Some signalling from within the White House that Trump may be listening more to the voices calling for an end to the conflict, particularly MAGA voices upset that he broke his promise not to get embroiled in overseas conflict as well as Gulf and Asian allies. In addition, test-leaks about American troops needing to deploy on the ground have gone down very badly. The USA blaming Israel for taking out the "more moderate leaders" who could have replaced Khamenei and for targeting the oilfields might be a way of offloading the blame onto Netanyahu. However, Netanyahu may be aware of Trumps' changeable nature and might be trying to escalate to pull the United States further into the conflict. Suggestions that Israel could use a tactical nuke in Iran seem, so far, to be unfounded and hopefully will remain that way.

Iranian television believes Trump will be forced to capitulate once oil passes $150 a barrel, which at current rates will be quite soon. I suspect Trump would not capitulate at that point but the reality of the situation might start to bite.

The US has lost its 11th Reaper MQ-9 Reaper drone over Iran.

The US has ordered all diplomats to prepare to leave Saudi Arabia. It has also closed its consulate in Adana, Turkey, and advised citizens to avoid southeastern Turkey for the foreseeable future.

11 countries have asked for Ukrainian air defence advice and assistance, including the United States. Some reports that Ukrainian interceptor drone teams have arrived in Jordan and set up defences for American forces based in the country, and are teaching the Americans how to defend themselves. It's unclear if the Americans have shown gratitude.

A further Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace and was shot down.

An eighth American servicemen has died from his wounds.

Bahrain's Bapco refinery, processing 267,000 barrels a day, has been hit by Iranian missiles. 

Telegram reports show the Russian situation on the front in some sectors is dire, due to Ukraine regaining drone superiority. Logistics within 15km of the front is non-existent, and it can take Russian troops to up to four days to reach the front line from where they are dropped off, as they have to take cover every few minutes from drones. Some troops report leaving their dugout basically means a 60%+ chance of being killed or injured.

Myrnohrad, which Russian recently secured (at least partially), is particularly dangerous. Several vehicle columns have been destroyed there recently by drones.

Ukraine has scored a new record by destroying 2,558 Russian drones in a single day.

A Russian unit was cut off on the Zaporizhzhia front without the unit realising. The battalion commander got confused about soldiers approaching, angrily walked towards them without realising they were Ukrainian and was promptly shot (unclear if fatally).

Ukraine has devastated a drone storage facility at Donetsk Airport, hitting it with multiple ATACMS and SCALP missiles. Not only was the facility heavily damaged, they killed and wounded multiple senior staff from Russia's Alabuga drone factory in Tatarstan who were visiting the facility. Ukraine had previously destroyed this facility last year, so the Russians rebuilt it...on the exact same spot. Stunningly intelligent move.

Ukraine's FP-2 drones are increasing their warhead to 158kg of high explosive. The FP-7 drone, with 300km range, has completed field testing wand will enter large-scale combat operations in the next three months. The FP-9, an ATACMS and Iskander-beater with a range of 850km, a larger warhead than the US system and costing significantly less, will begin field testing shortly. The FP-9 is designed to hit targets with a closing velocity of 1,000m/s, faster than the Iskander.

11 countries have asked for Ukrainian air defence advice and assistance, including the United States. Some reports that Ukrainian interceptor drone teams have arrived in Jordan and set up defences for American forces based in the country, and are teaching the Americans how to defend themselves. It's unclear if the Americans have shown gratitude.

Heavy Ukrainian attacks on Crimea have destroyed four radar systems.

The Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies believes that Russia will transfer several missile corvettes from the Black and Caspian Seas to the Baltic to act as escorts for tankers. Apparently they will "threaten the Swede" into making sure passage through the Danish Straits is not contested.

Some indications that Iran retains around 50% of its ballistic missile program and the majority of its drone capability. Strikes overnight continued, with Tel Aviv taking several impacts. More than 1,000 Israelis have been injured. The US has now burned through 800 Patriot interceptors and the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are reporting serious shortages. Fortunately the tempo of Iranian strikes has reduced significantly otherwise they'd be running dry about now.

Despite this, Iran was able to hit targets across Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq in a series of overnight strikes, with some 20 targets reportedly hit. Iraqi militia groups aligned to Tehran attacked US military positions, though not with much success. Hezbollah also targeted Israeli military positions.

Insurance companies are continuing to refuse to insure ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran can keep the straits shut for ~20 days, the effect on the global economy will become extremely serious and probably force Trump to an offramp.

Iranian oil fields and desalination plants being hit by Israel and the US could encourage Iran to target those facilities in the Gulf and try to hit those in Israel. Cutting off fresh water supplies to the region would be absolutely catastrophic.

Iran's heavy bombing of the Kurdish border region has apparently succeeded: the Kurds have decided not to take part in offensive action against the Iranians. They lack heavy equipment and some Kurdish factions are very distrustful of the United States after previous, numerous betrayals.

The Gerald R. Ford has departed the Mediterranean, passing through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. Reportedly it has been tasked with reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Charles de Gaulle has assumed its former defensive role in the eastern Mediterranean (the French backfilling for the Americans there, but apparently it's okay to ignore your allies). The British destroyer meant to head to Cyprus still hasn't departed, but it may be joined by one of the carriers, as both are in home port for refitting, and may be able to deploy in the next week or two.

The US and Israel are reportedly discussing an operation to seize control of Kharg Island, which hosts a terminal responsible for 90% of Iran's crude oil exports.

Reports that 20+ Iranian aircraft have been destroyed, but Iran has provided videos showing some of the aircraft were in fact painted decoys on the tarmac. Adding to the confusing, some OSINT sources saying the videos might be from last year's conflict instead of the current one.

An explosion at the US embassy in Oslo, Norway.

Witkoff has asked Moscow not to share intelligence with Iran. Okay.

An attempted Russian counterattack against the Zaporizhzhia offensive has failed, with over 300 Russians injured and around 30 killed. Ukraine continues to make gains on this sector, though the pace has slowed.

Unconfirmed reports that the last remaining Russian units in Kupyansk have surrendered, meaning the town is once again fully secured by Ukraine (for I believe the third time in this war).

Sweden has seized a sanctioned Russian shadow fleet vessel.