Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Cause, on 20 February 2025 - 08:30 PM, said:

His approval ratings have traditionally been high, but they have slackened off over the past year or so. The general feeling seems to be that he hasn't gotten as good a grip on corruption as he could have, and some of his appointments and decisions have been a bit questionable. But there's also a lot of respect for how he's handled the war in general relations with other countries, PR, positive messaging and so on. There's also a lot of feeling that he's President in an incredibly difficult, trying position, facing down incredible odds, and anybody in that position can make mistakes. There's probably few other jobs in the world right now that are more stressful, more difficult and more challenging.

That's my perspective as an outsider, Mentalist can probably give us a better look from the Ukrainian POV.

His approval ratings (his real, actual ones) seem to be around 57% at the moment (far higher than Trump's) and is actually up from the 52% he ended 2024 on. But way down on ratings of about 77% at the end of 2023.

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Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk front cut off a Russian combat formation in an industrial area, unexpectedly cutting back and trapping the Russian forces. The Russians refused to surrender, so a six-man forward operating team was eliminated by the Ukrainian 3rd Special Forces Regiment.

The deputy head of the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast was killed by a car bomb in Berdyansk.

A Russian unit going into battle with a donkey carrying their gear seemed unhappy that the donkey was being filmed. The donkey's views are unknown.

Borrowing from Israel's playbook, Ukraine intercepted Russian VR goggles being sent to Russian drone units. They rigged the goggles with explosives and detonated them in transit, though not during operation (which they decided was too chancy).

A Russian force tried to cross the border into Sumy Oblast and was defeated by the 78th Airborne Assault Regiment. Two Russian BMD-2s were destroyed. The Russian troops following them fled.

Russian forces continue trying to go on the offensive in Kherson Oblast. They attempted to cross the Dnipro and take positions on several islands. They were hit by Ukrainian drone and artillery fire. Two boats were destroyed and a dozen Russian infantry forces were killed. Russian attempts to continue attacking on this front remain futile and bewildering; some speculation that Putin has demanded one more major Ukrainian city to be captured soon and, with the Pokrovsk front looking shakier, Kherson is the nearest city to Russian lines. The fact it is heavily defended by Ukrainian forces and sitting behind one of the widest rivers in Europe seems to be lost on him.

Ukraine has apparently sent out a request for information from all local government officials on the practicalities of holding elections, including disabled access to polling stations, and suggestions on how elections should be held in areas where there are large numbers of refugees from occupied areas of the country.

The President of Brazil has confirmed that Germany had attempted to enter into an arms agreement with Brazil, but he rebuffed them, fearing weapons would then be sent on to Ukraine.

A Russian cargo ship, the Pavel Grabovsky, carrying 3,000 tons of corn has started sinking in the Sea of Azov.

Some American officials are looking at a new version of the minerals deal, including possibly allowing for Ukraine to automatically join NATO if Russia violates any future peace deal. But American officials seem to be constantly caught off-guard by Trump's non-sequitur statements, so this notion might not go anywhere.

Ukraine and Kazakhstan may hold discussions after a Ukrainian drone struck a pipeline carrying Kazakh crude oil. Ukraine was apologetic to Kazakhstan, a country not involved in the war (and increasingly antagonised by Russia), but noted it was a Russian pipe on Russian territory and thus a legitimate target.

Romania has passed a law allowing the interception of Russian drones and other weapons if they enter Romanian airspace. Hopes that Romania would expand their law to allow the interception of Russian drones and missiles if they entered AA weapons range of Romanian soil (a similar proposal has been floated in Poland), which would effectively provide NATO AA cover to the grain corridor, seem to have been rebuffed.

 A voluntary plan to recruit 18-24 year olds for the Ukrainian military has had over 10,000 sign up in its first week. The plan allows for education costs to be paid for them, NATO-level training given and these forces would be focused in non-front-line roles to start with (such as drone operations).

Starmer and Macron seem to have agreed on a potential plan for a post-war peacekeeping force, with Joint Expeditionary Force troops from the UK, France, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden based in Poltava, Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih, able to reinforce Ukrainian front line forces, who would also be protected by allied and US air cover. The front would basically be as now, with possible land-swaps of Ukrainian territory for Russian territory in Kursk (some suggestion that Russian forces would withdraw in full from Kharkiv Oblast, which is not part of their claimed territory anyway, in return for Kursk). This plan seems to have widespread European backing, but Trump might balk at the requirement of US air cover. Russia has also said it won't accept NATO countries with troops in Ukraine, even if under a different name.

Economic indicators: Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov has said there is no more money to support Russian industry. They can be no more advanced growth, only "balanced decline." The food industry, chemical industry, woodworking and mechanical engineering sector are all showing signs of this decline. Reshetnikov has indicated that Russia can revitalise its economy or support the special military operation, but not both.

The Russian economy is inflating at an unprecedented rate, by 50 trillion rubles in three years, with no corresponding increase in useful economic output. This has created a bubble that could burst tomorrow or in another year or two, but when it does burst, it will be painful. The Russian National Welfare Fund is also collapsing, having less than 2% of GDP within it (before the war it was 7.4%). 

Possibly one of Perun's best videos, going deep on the data to give us much clearer views on Russian recruitment, retainment and losses.

This is worse (for the Russians) than expected. Russian outflow rates from the armed forces in 2022-25 are, from Russia's own figures, running from 550,000 to 913,000, with the median figure of around 730,000. As it is illegal to leave the Russian military at the moment for reasons other than very severe injuries, being taken prisoner, or death, this would put the total Russian casualties for the war in that bracket. Some Ukrainian sources had been touting these figures but western sources had been considerably more conservative. But the Russian figures themselves are saying that this number has effectively upped and gone missing from their military.

The dead figures for the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics alone are utterly horrifying. As a percentage of the population, they're pretty insane.

The total number of Russian casualties, despite differing methodologies, ends up in a surprisingly similar place between western sources, Russian sources, recruitment inferences, battlefield footage and Ukrainian estimates: 790,000 to 856,000, with that one Russian source allowing for 913,000. KIA is harder to estimate but all the sources seem to agree that we passed the 200,000 milestone some considerable time ago (the BBC outlier of 96,000 is due to them only tracking confirmed obituaries, and noting that many Russian KIAs wouldn't have obituaries, especially DPR, LPR, NK, Wagner and prisoner numbers) and they may be approaching or have passed 300,000.

Germany seems to have been dragged kicking and screaming to the position of increasing defence spending from 1.5% to 2% of GDP, but this position had previously been suggested. Scholz seemed to get very annoyed in a meeting with Starmer and Macron (among others), pointing out that Germany's contributions to Ukraine had been greater than any other country's bar the United States, even though the military readiness and equipment of the Bundeswehr remains highly questionable. The UK has been criticised for allowing the army to atrophy to the point where it is unclear if it can support even a 10,000-strong peacekeeping force in Ukraine with three-month rotations (as opposed to putting over 30,000 troops on the ground at once in Iraq, which we simply could not do right now). The UK is continuing to focus on air and naval power, which is understandable, and looks likely to commit to a 2.5% GDP with a set timespan (as opposed to a nebulous "whenever" position, as is current). Military chiefs and experts want us to now commit to 3% by 2030 as a baseline, but the treasury seems to be screaming bloody murder about that idea.

An ambitious-sounding plan for the European Union and its allies to commit to the spending of $732 billion in military, economic and reconstruction aid to Ukraine is being floated. The timeframe for this is unknown but even if it was over 10 years, it would still be an enormous amount of money. If Europe was able to buy American munitions, as the US has said they would allow, then this pretty much eliminates any problems caused by American official support drying up instantly.

China has said it believes Ukraine and Europe should be involved with negotiations and it would consider any serious proposal to send Chinese troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine under a UN charter. It has suggested non-NATO countries could provide such troops to avoid Russian concerns over "Ukraine in NATO under a different name." However, China has voiced position recently that clash with Russian positions, suggesting that China would at least gently edge - if not throw - Russia under the bus if it meant securing better deals with Europe and minimising Chinese exposure to American economic moves. Türkiye is hosting Zelensky at the moment, Erdogan apparently keen to get in on the action after feeling sidelined in recent months.

The 4-hour US-Russia summit in Saudi Arabia has ended with both sides making positive noises. Ukraine and Europe are concerned over being excluded. The only firm proposal that seems to have leaked is that Russia will "allow" Ukraine to join the European Union but will not accept it in NATO, but since this is a proposal they suggested back in 2022, it's hardly new. What is new is a Russian request that NATO formally revoke its 2008 Bucharest Summit declaration on Ukraine and Georgia having a path to NATO membership.

The Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station has been heavily damaged. Replacing it and getting it working again will take over two months. However, Transneft believes it might be able to work at 70% capacity during the repairs (which seems optimistic). Andriapol oil pumping station and the Ilsky refinery have also been hit by Ukrainian forces.

A Russian armored push in the Kupyansk sector was defeated by the 429th Achilles Regiment using drones. One Russian APC was destroyed and three more damaged.

Ukraine aims to produce 4 million drones a year, improving on the 1.5 million drones produced in 2024.

The US backed down on a hardline ultimatum Ukraine: sign the mineral deal or no meeting with Vance. Zelensky refused to sign under pressure, the hardline stance vanished and talks with Vance proceeded.

The Russian oil tanker Seajewel carrying Russian oil has been crippled by an explosion, near the Italian city of Savona. The cause is unknown. 

The Kropotkinskaya refinery has been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine also launched possibly its second or third-biggest drone strike of the war, hitting multiple targets across Krasnodar Krai Oblast, including the refineries there.

There seems to be confusion over whether Greece is sending 32 decommissioned F-16s to Ukraine.

The Lyman front has gotten active again, with multiple Russian armoured thrusts defeated by Ukrainian defences. A 2S1 howitzer has claimed a direct hit on a moving Russian BMP from 10km away through a blizzard (drone footage appears to verify).

Sweden, the UK and France seem to be leading the way with pledges of troops for a Ukrainian peacekeeping mission.

Having secured the Chornobyl shelter, Ukrainian engineers discovered three "smoulder points" which could develop into fires. These would destroy the insulation of the reactor cover and pose a significant risk of degrading the shelter overall. They are working to stop the problem before it escalates.