Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Iran has launched a military operation over the Strait of Hormuz, targeting at least two ships (a South Korean cargo vessel and a UAE tanker) and the port of Fujairah, as well as launching drones and cruise missiles towards Dubai. UAE air defences have engaged. Qatar has gone on full alert.

Two US destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were ordered to leave and then fired upon by Iranian vessels, though the Americans have not confirmed this.

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Reading through the suggestions of a coup against Putin in more detail.

Apparently there was a significant shift in Putin's security starting in early April. Public appearances were scaled back significantly, and Putin and his family stopped staying at their Moscow residences, instead staying inside the security cordon at the Kremlin or in more remote, easily-sealed-off compounds in the countryside. Independent Russian media outlet Important Stories reports that the internal security level was raised around 1 March, possibly for the first time since Prigozhin's would-be coup.

This may tie in with other rumours that the Russian military was ordered to massively prioritise the security of all of their drones in particular, with every single drone now having a significant chain of identification from assembly to battlefield deployment. This in theory prevents a drone being used against Putin without its ID being known. This may also be contributing the slowdown in Russian drone production, and why some elite Russian drone operators have been sent into direct combat (a virtual death sentence).

Apparently there was a tense meeting in the Kremlin in late December where security officials traded blame for the assassination of a Russian lieutenant general (presumably Igor Kirillov) and were unable to formulate a plan to stop further assassinations by explosives or drones, to Putin's frustration.

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There are also suggestions that Russia's increasing internet clampdown and Putin's reforms of the Federal Protective Service and National Guard might be a prelude to a full "Iranianisation" of Russia, with the FSP and NG forming an IRGC analogue. Interestingly, the FSB appears to be outside of this scope, suggesting that Putin's distrust of the FSB ever since the initial invasion of Ukraine went badly wrong has not been repaired in the four years since.

Putin has also reportedly returned to micromanaging the war on almost every front, despite a lack of military training, which might explain a great deal about some of Russia's insane decisions. 

Ukraine is claiming that FP1 drones penetrated Moscow's air defence cordons overnight, flying over 10 S-400 batteries and around 80 Pantsir and Tor systems before they were finally engaged. FP1s are not known for stealth, so its unclear why they were not engaged.

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Some Russian sources openly talking about a possible coup or "early retirement" for Putin. Credibility is unclear but there's definitely more chatter than normal. Meanwhile, other sources saying Putin has considered the use of a "demonstrative" tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, possibly on Russian-occupied territory. This was shot down previously by Biden and Xi, but its unclear what consequences Trump would enforce, or if Putin would believe him.

Ukranian drones hitting Mariupol again, destroying a Russian military stockpile near the old Azovstal complex.

Ukraine hitting Primorsk port, damaging a Karakurt-class missile ship, a patrol ship and a shadow fleet tanker.

The Russian refinery at Perm is still ablaze after four days.

Russian Iskander missile launches from Crimea have dropped hugely after Ukraine targeted launchers on the peninsular, destroying dozens of them.

Two Russian shadow fleet vessels hit by drones at Novorossiysk.

Su-57s exit, they're just nowhere near as good as what they are supposed to be (at least an F-22-level equivalent, if not an F-35). The massive rivets they are built with disrupting the stealth skin when that's the whole damned point of the aircraft is incredibly comical (and to be fair, not the Sukhoi designers' fault, more the engineers).

Multiple Su-57s and Su-34s damaged, possibly one of each destroyed. Pretty big hit.

Tuapse attacked again overnight, the plant is a goner at this point. Perm taking more hits.

Russian bankers and finance bloggers and even some experts talking openly about how to avoid a wholesale banking sector collapse. The general message is grim, with bankers now discussing seizing the assets of the oligarchs (some oligarchs have been hurriedly moving liquid and some physical assets abroad) or converting deposits over a certain amount from ordinary citizens to credit notes, but they fear this would trigger a physical run on the banks. The term "like the 1990s" keeps coming up, which in Russia is likely to trigger wholesale PTSD.

Some suggestion of Ukraine tying a major defence agreement with the EU to its own EU accession by December 2027 (possibly Moldova as well). Some EU members are bullish on this, others have major concerns, as Ukraine's corruption measures, though advanced, are not completed as they would like.

Ukraine is interdicting the land corridor from Crimea to Russia, hitting Russian supply columns moving between Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Mariupol and Donetsk City. Individual vehicles and entire convoys have been hit.

Ukraine is retaking Stepnohirsk in western Zaporizhzhia by blowing up tower blocks with drones and glide bombs. The tower blocks have been taken over by Russian soldiers using them as fire control points. Ukraine prefers to liberate towns without levelling them, but in this case clearing the towers would be insanely costly.

Russian oil output has dropped to below 4.7 million barrels a day, the lowest amount since December 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis.

Ukraine is employing HIMARS on a larger scale again, destroying multiple Russian artillery pieces on the Zaporizhzhia front. This reflects the dwindling number of Russian drones over the front, which had started to push HIMARS back out of useful range.

Steven Witkoff is apparently tired of travelling to Kyiv by train so is delaying any further travels to Ukraine for peace talks. The word for this is "pathetic."