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Ukrainian Neptune (land variant) ballistic missiles have hit targets in Voronezh, possibly marking the furthest deployment of ballistic missiles inside Russian territory so far. 

Greece has agreed to build Ukrainian sea drones in its military ports.

Russia has lost another Su-35, this time over Crimea. 

Russia has lost a lot of AA cover around Pokrovsk, allowing Ukrainian aircraft to start hitting targets in the town. One Ukrainian combat group tracked a Russian patrol inside a building and then flagged the building for destruction by air power.

Russia is believed to have mobilised around 46,000 soldiers from the occupied territories to fight for Russia. These troops tend to surrender more readily than most.

Ukraine is warning of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure is imminent. They have also warned that Ukraine is prepared to use its escalating missile capability to respond in kind.

NATO is working with local rail infrastructure in Germany, Poland and the Baltics to implement a mass deployment plan, allowing tens of thousands of NATO troops to be redeployed from Germany and France to the eastern border within 72 hours of a conflict starting. At the moment it would take around a month.

Those responsible for sabotaging the Polish rail line have been apprehended. They are two Ukrainian citizens with known Russian leanings, one previously lived in occupied Donetsk. Both entered Poland via Belarus.

Z-bloggers Roman Alyokhin and Tatyana Montyan have been arrested in Russia for discrediting the regime. They were notable for giving more accurate information on troop and equipment losses. Others in the Z-community have vowed to continue "telling the truth" about the conflict.

Trump has given his backing to Lindsey Graham's long-gestating Russian sanctions bill.

Ukraine is hammering the front line in Zaporizhzhia with their air force. The Russian advance has outrun the air coverage of their few remaining long-range AA systems, opening up the advancing forces to being bombed directly. They are not having a good time of it. Ukraine is also going after the few remaining AA systems on Ukrainian soil with a vengeance, with even Buk systems now being regularly tracked down and destroyed.

France expected to confirm Rafales for Ukraine tomorrow, though delivery might take 3-4 years.

A Russian offensive towards Kostyantynivka was thwarted with heavy losses. If Pokrovsk goes (or even if it doesn't), Kostyantynivka becomes the next city on the main fortress belt to be targeted.

The Dobropillia–Kostiantynivka highway has been fully cleared of Russian forces, through its proximity to the front line means it won't be in regular use for a while.

Ukraine cut power links to Donetsk, Makiivka, Horlivka, and Yasynuvata, leaving all four settlements in occupied Donetsk Oblast without power. The Oryol thermal plant has also been damaged.

An explosive device destroyed part of the track on the Warsaw-Lublin train line in Poland.

Russian oil prices have dropped to $36 a barrel, half the current market value. This appears to be a result of the US sanctions package.

Another S-400 missile system has been neutralised, and a Tor SAM.

As anticipated, Ukraine has signed a deal to buy 100 Rafale fighters.

Russian drones damaged the Turkish LPG tanker Orinda in the port of Izmail, directly next to the Romanian border.

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Russia has transferred a significant number of troops from Kherson and the SW Zaporizhzhia front to the Pokrovsk front. This is after 30,000 troops were already transferred from Kherson during the summer, halving the number of troops Russia has available in Kherson (some new recruits were transferred to Kherson, possibly from Crimea and Russia proper, but the numbers are unknown).

Apparently hundreds of troops are arriving every couple of days, often being sent into combat with no proper reassignment. Some of the Russian troops are apparently arriving from areas that have been somewhat inactive and were a bit surprised at being thrown straight into Pokrovsk's urban combat zones.

Ukrainian counter-attacks in northern Pokrovsk continue, with the 425th Separate Assault Regiment reoporting success in retaking several Russian-held streets. The combat situation in Pokrovsk remains very intense.

Reports that Ukraine and its European allies have committed to a further three years of fighting have apparently alarmed Moscow, which is suddenly keen to re-open dialogue with Washington and Kyiv to end the war much sooner, and has already started laying the groundwork for a possible peace deal in 2026 (with Putin saying the defence budget must drop next year). Russia's economic situation makes maintaining the war at this level of intensity through 2026 alone questionable, and until 2028 implausible, whilst Ukraine's partners can continue to back it.

Interesting observation: If we overlay the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 over the timeline of the Ukrainian conflict, then right now would be February 1945. The Red Army is closing in fast on Berlin and Germany is in full-scale collapse.

In this conflict, Russia is still at Pokrovsk, 41 kilometres from where they started on this front almost four years ago.

Some reports that the Ukrainian 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade has fought its way into southern Pokrovsk and is holding the line against heavy Russian assaults. Whether this means the line has been pushed back to the southern suburbs of the city or if the fighting is porous through the city is unclear.

Unconfirmed report that Ukraine has tested a "swarm drone" attack on the Donetsk Metallurgical Plant.

Ukrainian Flamingo missiles successfully hit energy targets in Oryol, Russia. This appears to confirm that Flamingo's previous targeting accuracy issues have been resolved. The thermal power plant in Oryol appears to be offline. Energy facilities in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk were also hit.

Russia has lost an Su-30SM fighter to enemy action, whilst an Su-27 crashed near Petroskoi, Karelia, NE of St. Petersburg.

The Russian radar stations in Ordzhonidkidze, Crimea have been hit by drones.

The Morskoy Neftyanoi oil terminal in Feodosia has been hit for the second time in three days, sustaining heavy damage.

For the first time, Russian forces on the front have reported shortages of fuel, leading to some mechanised attacks being abandoned or going ahead without armoured support. So far the shortages appear confined to secondary areas of the front; forces at Pokrovsk seem reasonably well-supplied.

Ukrainian analysis that Russia is using Ukraine's own tactics against it, targeting Ukrainian short-range logistics hubs to try to starve Ukrainian units at the front of ammo, fuel, food and water, and create "no go" areas behind the front. These tactics have been successful in eastern Zaporizhzhia, but less so around Pokrovsk.

Ukraine has received €6 billion in financial support from the EU today.

Rubio has admitted that further US sanctions and tariffs against Russia are weakened by the fact that there's nothing left for the US to sanction, due to limitations on the amount of Russian-US trade. He has urged EU powers to wean themselves off Russian oil ASAP.

A Ukrainian dog, Lavr, has had both his forelegs replaced by prosthetics after they were lost in a bombing. Lavr now works with Ukrainian combat veterans rehabilitating after battle, sometimes with their own replaced limbs.

Russian officials are proposing they recruit 25,000 Cubans for the front lines, and set up 4 military bases in Venezuela to deter American adventurism. The enthusiasm in Cuba for this enterprise remains unclear.

China has substantially reduced oil orders from Russia, turning to Saudi Arabia to replace them instead.

I was starting a new round of mapping, but held fire because of some interesting news: the next Broken Binding sets going out (fairly soon) will apparently have a brand-new world map created at Ian Esslemont's direction, with some oversight from Steven Erikson. This should be the first canonical world map.

The map in the previous set was based on the fanon maps as an optional extra, it was not meant to be canon in itself. This new one sounds like a bigger deal.