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The 425th Assault Regiment Skelya has redeployed from Pokrovsk to Hulyaipole to shore up the deteriorating situation there. Sounds like some heavy fighting is underway. Some Russian units have pushed way ahead of reinforcements, so are vulnerable to counter-attacks, but the situation remains fluid.

The Ukrainian drone operators of the 92nd Brigade have modified their drones to physically knock Russian soldiers to the ground. They did this to eliminate Russian horseback riders without harming their horses. During one attack today they confirmed all Russian attackers were neutralised, and the horses were left unharmed. Some of the horses may have been rescued by the Ukrainians, some just ran off, hopefully not back to the Russian lines.

I want to nominate this deployment of horseborne cavalry as the stupidest thing that not only the Russians, but anyone has ever done in modern warfare.

Better news is a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast which has liberated five settlements.

Several strategic assessments and some ground-level tactical assessments from individual units that Russian replenishment has run into major problems. We've known that for most of 2025, Russia has been running at around 10,000 fresh recruits a month, sometimes surging that up to 15,000 or so, but a long way behind the 30,000 a month it sustained for almost all of 2023 and 2024. The Kupyansk offensive collapsed due to a lack of reinforcement. The failure to take Povrosk so far (they may still get there, but the cost is astonishing) seems to be mostly down to lack of reinforcements. We've seen Russia moving troops from one sector to another to reinforce attacks rather than putting actual new recruits on the line. Russia has managed to mitigate this somewhat by using glide bombs and drones to help offensive assaults, but it's nowhere near as reliable. Russia has also not been using anything like as much artillery, due to a slower replenishment rate of shells and a serious shortage in barrels.

How much of a problem this really becomes, if Russia's entire effort could collapse and Ukraine retake large swathes of under-defended territory, is open to debate. Likely Russia will step up negotiations and switch to defensive actions around hugely-reinforced strongpoints, which Ukraine has been generally slow or unable to capture in the conflict so far.

Excellent. The Ukrainians have inflicted heavy losses on the Russian positions outside Kupyansk and driven them back towards the Oskil, attacking both the Zapadne-Kalynove axis and Holubivka. A small Russian presence remains in the city itself but they are being liquidated. Russian Z-bloggers have gloomily confirmed that the city is lost.

Two Russian tankers have been crippled by drones in port at Taman.

Ukrainian pilots are to begin training in Sweden on Gripens soon.

Italian manufacturers have urged that European countries adopt a standard design for military specifications quickly. The continent's ability to manufacture on a vast scale, outranging Russia (and giving the US a run for its money, but still a bit behind China), is formidable but complicated by wildly differing specs for aircraft, weapons and ships.

The Russian 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment has all but mutinied, describing insane meat-grinder assault on Ukrainian "fortress" positions with insufficient artillery, aircraft or drone support.

Two Russian policemen who were known torturers of Ukrainian POWs were assassinated in a car bomb attack in Moscow.

Ukraine's assessment of Flamingo is that it has potential but so far the hit rate, at around 25%, is disappointing. Further upgrades are planned. Neptune has improved considerably, however, but is more limited by supply.

Belarus has released 250 political prisoners in return for the US lifting limits on exports of...weight loss drugs. Apparently Lukashenko was "keen" on this provision.

Russia's evacuation of personnel from the embassy in Caracas is accelerating, and some departing staff have been caught on video. Has Trump told Putin something not in the public sphere yet?

AfD in Germany has been accused of gathering information and intelligence for Russia.

Russia's only Il-38N maritime defence aircraft, with specialised gear for detecting underwater drones, was shot down just before the drone attack on Novorossiysk that damaged the sub.

Rather alarming news from Chornobyl: the external steel shield has held despite several drone impacts, but experts are warning that vibrations from the explosions may have cracked the sarcophagus itself over Reactor #4. If that fails completely, there could be a significantly increased risk of a radiation leak. Repairing the sarcophagus may not be possible at all, the external shield was supposed to act as a complete replacement itself (hence why it was built), but if the thing is gradually being swiss-cheesed by Russian strikes, that fails. Also a reminder that if there is a major radiation leak, if the winds are blowing from the south, Belarus will be more adversely impacted than Ukraine itself.

Rubio has apparently had robust discussions with Witkoff, annoyed with the latter for arranging off-the-cuff meetings without informing the State Department.

Over the past week, Ukrainian forces on the southern front have destroyed 2,116 Russian troops and over 500 pieces of equipment, including 4 tanks, 6 AFVs, artillery systems, a Buk-M3 air defense system, two MLRS systems (Uragan and Grad), one ammo depot, and seven fuel storage sites. This may have contributed to rising Russian casualties, with over 1400 KIA recorded yesterday.

Armenia is so annoyed by Russia that it has ditched Russia as its main supplier of fuel in favour of...Azerbaijan. That's certainly something.

Russia is denying it has ordered all civilian and nonessential personnel to leave its embassy in Caracas, which means it's happening.

Massive offensive on the Dobropillia front by Russia, trying to break through and reestablish their bridgehead from a few months ago. Current indication is they failed, Ukraine destroyed six tanks, nine IFVs, five APCs, a recovering vehicle and ten motorbikes. Infantry losses still being assessed. Some Russians were using horses to advance, which is something that's been rumoured before but only see now for the first time.

Apparently a breakthrough in negotiations with the USA agreeing to Article 5-comparable guarantees and US aircraft to guard Ukraine's skies in return for some leeway on the demilitarised zone. Details still to be confirmed.

Sweden is deploying the Kreuger 100 fast interceptor drone. Moving at 354km/h, the interceptor trades insane launching speed for range, with only around a 3.2km reliable range, but that speed will allow it to hit Shaheds with ease. The drones are being lab-tested in Sweden now but will be deployed to Ukraine for combat trials in the spring.

Russia has apparently amassed resources for an 800-1,000 drone/cruise missile strike on Ukraine at some point in the next week.

A Ukrainian ground-based drone unit has been crediting with holding a fortified position by itself for over 45 days before being relieved by human operators. The drone was resupplied by other drones, and apparently sometimes had to act autonomously due to EW jamming. The drone took no damage and has been credited with multiple Russian casualties.

Russian Ural crude oil has slumped to $34 a barrel, a catastrophic and all-time low.

Russia has lost an Su-27 and an Su-30 at an airfield at Lipetsk. Ukrainian infiltrators burned both jets on the tarmac, apparently infiltrated and exfiltrating without being challenged.

Funded by the EU, Lithuania has dismantled, packed up and moved the Vilnius Third Combined Heat and Power Plant to Ukraine, where it is being reassembled at an unknown location for rapid deployment. Once active, it will power over a million Ukrainian homes.

The Ukrainian 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skelya" has reportedly advanced in Pokrovsk and retaken some positions.

Trump has announced the Trump-class US warship, a design that can only be described as the naval equivalent of that car Homer Simpson designed for his brother that time.