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In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread
Yesterday, 06:27 PM
Ukraine's success in western Zaporizhzhia seems to be down to the 153rd Mechanised Brigade and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, whilst HUR special forces units (Tymur and the International Legion) have reinforced.
The Russians have deployed the reserve regiments of the 7th Air Assault Division, alongside the 108th and 247th Air Assault Regiments. The 299th Airborne has also been deployed. These units have so far failed to halt the Ukrainian offensive.
In addition, the Russians had the 7th, 104th and 98th VDV Divisions and part of the 11th VDV Brigade in the area. These appear to have been mauled heavily in combat, despite being "elite" units. They have little or no answer for Ukrainian drone attacks.
Meanwhile, Russia appears to have lot an entire infantry column which was walking from Bakhmut to reinforce Chasiv Yar. Russian troops having to walk crazy distances to the front is now commonplace, but them bunching together in one group easily dispatched by a few drones is rare. Possibly new recruits who didn't know any better.
Ukrainian forces have advanced into Hrekivka. This is extremely entertaining because this is inside Luhansk Oblast, the Ukrainians had to cross the border from Kharkiv Oblast to do it.
As a result of this, Russia no longer controls 100% of any of the oblasts it has been contesting since 2022.
To be clear, this is like 0.01% of the oblast, but it is amusing.
Meanwhile, a building on the Kremlin grounds has burst into flames. -
In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread
11 May 2026 - 07:15 PM
It is doable. Ukraine now has shown the ability to cut Crimea off from resupply, it can interdict most of the land bridge. They're also showing more success in anti-drone operations (they destroyed a forward drone base near the Dnipro in Kherson today). If Ukraine can keep up the pressure on the main highways, start to retake more ground more successfully with lighter casualties, then Russia's ability to resist that on the ground basically ceases to exist. Once the momentum goes, you could then have a stampede operation at least among Russian civilians, probably best achieved in Crimea, where there's already been several mini-panics and civilians fleeing back to mainland Russia. Mariupol is also a good target for that, Russian residents there are already in arms about the sheer number of Ukrainian drones overhead.
The things standing in the way of that are Trump and Putin doing something insane if he believes he's on the way out. Also the possibility of difficult elections in Europe putting more pro-Putin or Putin-neutral figures into power.
ETA: Now seeing reports that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces back down the Dnipro from their previous positions (though the scale seems unclear) and have now retaken a larger part of Chasiv Yar. Again. I think we just had the three-year anniversary of the first Russian ground assault on the town, making it the longest-contested settlement of the conflict (I think).
Also OSINT sources saying with increased confidence that Russia has cleared 400,000 dead, probably significantly more. One saying 500,000, but that seems unsupported for now (though by the end of this year, entirely possible).
Rybar seems to be saying "game over" as well, which has sent shockwaves through the Russian OSINT fanbase. Rybar claims that Russia has ordered tanks to no longer take part in frontal assaults and has not prioritised the anti-drone weapons they urgently need. -
In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread
10 May 2026 - 08:54 PM
Ukrainian forces have crossed the border back into Donetsk oblast on another part of the line, attacking in the Zeleniy Gai - Zirka direction.
ISW has confirmed multiple reports that Ukraine is conducting a long-range interdiction programme along the T-0509 highway linking Mariupol to Donetsk City. Ukrainian drones are flying well over 100 km to impact convoys and individual vehicles on the highway, destroying resupply vehicles, troop carriers and fuel tankers. This kind of drone interdiction operation is usually conducted on roads much, much closer to the front and the Russians don't seem to entirely know how to stop them, especially as the drones can attack from difference directions (possibly including overflying to the Sea of Azov and then doubling back).
ISW also assesses that ground lines of communication between Russian supply and reinforcement hubs and the front are the worst they've been since the war started. Russian forces can now take several days to simply get to the front, let alone start infiltrating beyond it into Ukrainian territory, and are exhausted and demoralised by the fear of drone strikes, actual drone strikes and enemy artillery before they even fire a shot in anger. Vast amounts of Russian equipment is simply destroyed without seeing use. Not just the ISW, but multiple sources show that the Russian Spring/Summer offensive of 2026, the fifth of the war, is the most shambolic, badly-supported, barely-reinforced and least effective they've seen. It's possible combat effectiveness will improve as more troops, anti-drone measures and resupplies arrive, but the Russians really seem to have fundamental problems at the moment.
Whether this can extend to Ukraine breaking the Russian lines and starting to retake territory in short order, as some of the more unrealistically pro-Ukrainian sources have suggested, is another matter. ISW does believe that this will require close coordination between Ukrainian ground forces and drone units, which we have started to see in Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk. -
In Topic: Discworld by Terry Pratchett
07 May 2026 - 07:39 PM
Discworld #35: Wintersmith
Quote
Tiffany Aching is continuing her training as a witch under the fearsome Miss Treason, though Granny Weatherwax is still keeping watch from afar. Tiffany makes an unfortunate choice during a winter festival and attracts the attention of the Wintersmith, a mythological figure who, this being Discworld, is rather less mythological and more real than Tiffany prefers. Once again, she joins forces with the Nac Mac Feegle to try to overcome this threat...before she is sucked into the mythological story against her will.
Wintersmith is the thirty-fifth Discworld novel (out of forty-one; the ending is just starting to edge into sight) and the third to focus on the character of Tiffany Aching. Nominally, this is a YA-focused Discworld novel. However, given Sir Terry Pratchett's resolute refusal to talk down to younger readers, there isn't a vast amount of difference between this and an "adult" Discworld novel, save toning down Nanny Ogg's double entendres a tiny bit.
Wintersmith's theme, as much as can be said, is about the interaction between mythology and reality. The Wintersmith - not quite a god but more than just a spirit - is brought into the real world by Tiffany's actions and fixates upon her, forcing her to try to find a way of removing his interest.
As is usual with Pratchett, there are plenty of laughs, some impressive character development - Roland, Tiffany's would-be romantic interest, gets plenty of solid advancement here - and some thoughtful musings on the ideas of responsibility and how some people prefer comforting illusions and lies to harsh reality. But the book also has some weaknesses. The Wintersmith himself is the latest in a long line of incorporeal characters who want to become human but don't quite get it (Death famously spent a book or two flailing around this idea) and his level of threat is quite vague for most of the book. The idea of an ancient spirit falling in love with a young teenage girl is also a bit weird, and doesn't really go anywhere.
If anything it's the numerous subplots and side-character which fare much better. Roland's attempts to evade the attentions of his aunts and turn into a good would-be ruler are entertaining, and Tiffany's tutoring of a superficial and apathetic young witch into a more responsible figure feels like it could be a whole book by itself. The Nac Mac Feegle also don't have much to do and Pratchett's attempts at giving them more development feel a bit more perfunctory here than in A Hat Full of Sky. Still, at least they are not overused.
Neither are Discworld heavy-hitter characters Granny Weatherwax and Nanny Ogg, who back off for most of the book to let Tiffany deal with the threat of the Wintersmith herself. This is a good move by Pratchett, who resists the temptation of fanservice to better develop his new(ish) protagonist.
Wintersmith (***½) is a solid, if unspectacular, slice of Discworld. It has great characters, comedic moments and some nice thematic ideas, but the central plot feels a bit wooly and never quite gels together into a concrete threat. But the Nac Mac Feegle storming the Underworld with the help of a sentient cheese and negotiating a discount on crossing the River Styx is an all-timer Discworld moment. -
In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread
07 May 2026 - 05:47 PM
Some reports that Germany is considering buying Flamingo know-how from Ukraine to then mass-produce their own equivalent for sale across Europe, and possibly to augment Ukrainian production.
Russian anti-air missile production seems to have dropped from previous years, forcing Russia to make harder decisions about which incoming Ukrainian munitions to try to intercept. Apparently the situation in Crimea is so bad that Sevastopol Air Defence Command made a public plea for new missile stocks. One unconfirmed report is that, at least in some areas, Russian Buk launchers only have 1-2 missiles for 6 batteries.
A third strike on the Perm refinery, pretty heavy damage.
Ukraine has hit and damaged a Karakursk-class missile destroyer in the Caspian Sea, near Dagestan.
Reports of furious close-quarters combat on the Sumy front, with Russian soldiers using an underground pipe to emerge in the rear of the Ukrainian 71st Brigade. Fortunately, the Ukrainians detected the incursion and reportedly killed 44 Russian soldiers in less than half an hour of intense combat.
The US has removed Ukraine from the list of countries facing arms import restrictions.
Drones entered Latvian airspace, forcing Latvia to scramble defensive aircraft. Some of the drones subsequently left Latvian airspace, but at least two fell out of the sky near Rezekne, damaging an empty oil tank.
Ukraine has switched to only using one Patriot interceptor per incoming Russian cruise missile versus two, to preserve dwindling stocks.

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Tsundoku
24 Jan 2026 - 22:30Tsundoku
22 Jan 2025 - 13:13Tsundoku
21 Jan 2024 - 21:23Tsundoku
21 Jan 2023 - 14:29ArchieVist
28 Jul 2022 - 16:57https://youtu.be/xb0UZ5e1Sw4?t=4230
Tsundoku
21 Jan 2022 - 14:32Tsundoku
22 Jan 2021 - 09:19Tsundoku
05 Mar 2020 - 09:29Tsundoku
22 Jan 2019 - 11:51Forty! YAAAAAHHHHHH!
Have a good one.
Tsundoku
22 Jan 2018 - 08:24Tsundoku
22 Jan 2010 - 15:32