Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

I think the idea is not to do what they did at Krynky, which was a bit inexplicable. Instead you'd try to push the grey zone forward and create an environment so saturated the Russians have zero choice but to retreat (as we've just seen as Kinburn) and then, once you've pushed the grey zone as far inland from the river as possible, cross whilst not under constant fire. A contested crossing would be insane, the Russians themselves have lost tens of thousands of troops trying to do the same in the opposite direction.

This may be doable in Kherson because you only have limited land routes to worry about. They're trying to do a similar thing at Kamyanske, using the river to anchor the flank so you can just pour more firepower onto the target. The Russians seem to be firming up (or trying to) that front, though.

Crossing the Dnipro at its mouth without the Antonivka Road Bridge is extremely hard though, even if you have pushed the Russians far back. The Russians found that out themselves whilst retreating.

One Ukrainian regiment's drone unit, by itself, destroyed 110 vehicles, including taking out a full Russian infantry company in transit to the front, in one week, at an operational depth of 150km. DARTS drones were primarily used to destroy supply trucks, tankers, pickups and trucks transporting military personnel.

The Russians have counter-attacked near Mala Tokmachka, apparently sending in an under-strength force. The Ukrainians halted the push.

Ukraine has hit the Grushovaya oil depot near Novorossiysk again, sending smoke rising over the city. The oil export facility was hit earlier in the weekend.

More information on the evacuation of Kinburn from a Russian milblogger. The 337th Regiment was holding the spit but has given up. Deliveries of ammunition, food and fuel ceased in their entirety some weeks ago. Ukrainian drones and artillery have bombarded the spit, inflicting heavy casualties. The 337th's own drone defences have been neutralised. Some troops from the regiment have been reassigned to the Zaporizhzhia front, and the other units remaining have not been refreshed for months. Local commanders apparently ordered the withdrawal to preserve some vague semblance of combat power on the peninsular further east.

A civilian petrol station in Krasnodar ran out of petrol and apparently have zero idea on when they will be resupplied.

The Valdaysky district of the Novgorod region has put up extensive drone nets in a massive circular area roughly 18km across, despite being some distance from the front. The epicentre appears to be one of Putin's residences.

Apparently Zelensky has spoken to Witkoff and Kushner. Apparently they believe the mood in Russia has taken a considerably more pessimistic turn over the last few weeks, and this may set the tone for more positive discussions from a Ukrainian perspective. I think the "may" is doing heavy lifting there.

A Ukrainian soldier using a heavy machine gun on a pickup appears to have shot down a Russian missile (not a drone) in mid-flight.

The EU's €90 billion loan to Ukraine is starting to be paid, with a €5.9 billion drone fund being sent this month.

Some reports that Russian forces are withdrawing from the Kinburn Spit. 337th Regiment units on the spit have been without food, fuel or ammunition for weeks and are withdrawing whilst they are still physically able. Very interesting to see if Ukraine tries to seize the ground behind them. They've made several attempts to do so as a successful Ukrainian assault via the spit into the rear of Russian forces in Kherson Oblast has been a nightmare scenario for the Russians since late 2022*. This also likely means Russian light artillery pieces that can (almost) reach Odesa, and drone units that certainly can, may have been withdrawn as well. How far they withdraw is also interesting as it may mean the complete removal of all Russian forces from Mykolaiv Oblast.

Russian civilian rail connections to Crimea were halted overnight after heavy attacks on Russian rail infrastructure.

A French aircraft engaged and destroyed a drone that crossed into Latvian airspace. Unclear if this was a Russian or Ukrainian drone.

ISW now assesses the war has moved into a new strategic phase, possibly the first shift since the move from maneuver warfare and large-scale troop movements in 2022 to grinding conflict with an increasingly heavy drone component in 2023-25. Their view is that the Ukrainian interdiction of Russian GLOCs (ground lines of communication) will make any large-scale Russian troop movements difficult to untenable. However, it remains to be seen if Ukraine can now translate its mid-range dominance to retaking territory. They assess that Ukraine has begun using its own aircraft and armoured vehicles (and robots for that matter) to support battlefield advances in a way we haven't seen Russia able to do, but so far only on a limited scale.

Unconfirmed reports, mostly limited to the more excitable bloggers, of a Ukrainian breakthrough near Bolshemykhailivka, heaving south towards Sosnivka and Berezove. Not seeing much confirmation of that at the moment.

Perun's latest video on the mid-range strike campaign is, as usual, excellent.

Abyss, on 08 June 2026 - 01:49 PM, said:

Military victory is certainly more possible than it was for Ukraine a few months ago.

A potential Ukrainian strategy is total dominance of mid-range and long-range resupply routes, starving units on the front until they have no choice but to withdraw, surrender in extremis, rendering them totally combat-ineffectual. Ukrainian unmanned systems can then storm front line positions and secure for a Ukrainian infantry or mechanised assault, hopefully with limited or no casualties. Then roll forwards and rinse and repeat. Ukrainian mine-clearance systems are now hugely superior to what they had in 2023, they have tens of thousands of ground-combat robots, and obviously millions of aerial drones, along with increasing conventional air dominance as well (allowing for the mass-use of glide bombs on Russian positions).

The front is huge, though, so it's unclear if Ukraine can deliver such operations on a large scale. But what they could to is target a weak point in the lines where they do not risk being outflanked and try to break through there. The Kinburn Spit is a possible location*, as from there they could make Russian positions along the Dnipro mouth untenable. Once Russian forces have pulled back from there, Ukrainian forces can cross the river mouth and resupply into the land corridor itself. Russian units would have to fall back to Crimea or north-westwards, allowing Ukrainian forces to reach the Sea of Azov and totally cut off Crimea from Russian mainland control. Russian defences in the area are questionable, with perhaps limited good options for Russian defenses all the way back to Melitopol and Mariupol, at which point the Russian line could start to unravel.

It's probably unrealistic that can happen quickly. A lot of it may depend on psychology; we're already seeing chaos in Dontesk because truck drivers are refusing to go on supply runs not because it's likely they'll be hit by drones, but just because the stories of drone strikes are so incredibly common and scary, they're just refusing to comply. Once the narrative takes hold that it's game over, Russian units might just say F-this and leave. And, based on Russian history, they might not stop until they've reached the Kremlin.

*The Kinburn Spit is marshy and not really suitable for large-scale mechanised assaults, so an invading force would have to use drones and infantry to fight onto the Kinburn Peninsula itself, secure resupply routes (difficult in the face of Russian dug-in defences) and then advance again, so not easy, but perhaps doable if the Russian forces in the area are in retreat due to lack of supplies).

Rationing of staple items in Crimea, like rice and bread, has begun. Ukraine has hit oil storage facilities across Crimea. Fuel sales in parts of Crimea are being rationed at 20 litres or less per vehicle.

Russia's 15th Naval Arsenal in the Leningrad Region was hit by Ukrainian drones and left almost completely obscured from satellite imagery by burning fires.

Electrical stations in Donetsk Oblast have also been hit.

Ukraine's 3rd Special Operations Unit has declared fire control over the Chonhar-Melitopol resupply route. Chonhar is the crossing point from mainland Ukraine to Crimea.

The Antipinsky Refinery in Tyumen, Russia, 2,000km from Russia, took a very heavy hit.

Ukraine has revealed how it destroyed several Russian jets in hardened military hangers. They waited until someone opened the doors and then flew some drones in. That's it.

Russian drone operators sitting under shelters at Donetsk Airport flying their drones out, hoping the Ukrainians don't nip their drones in through the opening whilst it's vulnerable. This has happened multiple times. Apparently their suggestion they stop using Donetsk Airport as a base has been rejected by the Russian military command as being too sensible.

Ukraine has hit St. Petersburg again, hitting additional targets around the city and on Kronstadt Island.

It is absolutely possible that Russia will militarily lose the war. Starving all the units on the front of food, fuel and ammunition tends to inhibit their fighting effectiveness, especially when Ukraine can use aerial and ground-based robots to actually storm lines instead, as is starting to happen.

Zelensky's letter I think was an attempt to have the war end now with something Putin can sell to the Russian people as vaguely victory and ensure his own survival. Otherwise what happens next could be more dangerous, if Putin sees the Russian position in Ukraine collapse quickly, that could make him panic and do something extremely unwise. The "boiling the frog slowly" tactic has been very successful, suddenly dropping the frog into a flamethrower might can an unwise escalation.

Extraordinary claim that 1,391 Russian supply and refuelling vehicles have been destroyed or disabled in just three days around Chernihivka, the primary supply node for the entire Zaporizhzhia front. This is the final distribution centre for supplies headed to the front, and it's now basically under drone siege.

Controversy as American defence company Red Cat, which had partnered with Ukrainian sea drone company Magura to produce a US copy of the Magura V7, has put its own version (identical in every way) into production. Red Cat now claims their version was built and designed in the US with no input from Ukrainian companies, which is clearly bullcrud.

Citizens in Donetsk city reporting that markets and supermarkets are rapidly running out of food as people panic-buy. Truck drivers, ordinary civilian ones, are too terrified to go out as they fear being hit by drones. Donetsk has a current population of around 870,000.

Resupply trucks are being ordered to disperse and no longer sit in parking lots in groups anywhere in the occupation zone. This may not be practical in all cases, but where trucks bunch together, they invariably get a visit from Ukrainian drones.

A huge hit on the Sea of Azov ports this morning. A huge Ukrainian drone attack destroyed five Russian cargo ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain out of the ports. Russian air defences were overwhelmed and unable to intercept the drones. Ukraine being able to blockade Russia from exporting its stolen food supplies would be a huge gamechanger as well.

Novoplatonivka has been retaken. The Russians confirmed taking the village after a long and gruelling combat operation. A Ukrainian ground assault robot entered the village and promptly cleaned up half the Russian units, with Ukrainian infantry neutralising the rest and confirming the settlement was back under their control within a few days.

Ukraine has confirmed it is receiving near-realtime battlefield satellite imagery, sometimes hitting targets within 15 minutes of it being identified on satellite.