Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

A Russian Tu-22Me strategic bomber has crashed in Usolski, Siberia and been totally destroyed. Unclear if the crew managed to bail out (one breaking report that the pilot died, a second crewman did bail out and survive).

Girkin's associates have said that the Kremlin is refusing to countenance a further mobilisation, which will cause manpower issues as soon as this year, and Putin may be in denial about how much more effort Russia will need to make to even secure the Donbas, let alone the rest of the claimed oblasts.

At the moment Russian employers are around half a billion rubles behind on their payments to staff. Some construction firms are months behind on paying their staff, electronic firms maybe a month or two behind. So far ordinary Russians are grumbling but carrying on. The situation could deteriorate fast if it becomes a bigger problem.

A cost-benefit analysis of Russia's invasion has shown that the cost for each additional square kilometre of territory is rising, hard. From late 2024 to early 2025 the Russians went from taking 7.1 attacks to 36.4 attacks per square kilometre for the Khortytsia operation group (which has responsibility for the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk fronts). There is a corresponding increase in casualties and the destruction of vehicles and weapons.

Senators Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) have launched a bipartisan plan to impose 500% secondary duties on imported goods from all countries that buy oil, gas, uranium and other products from Russia.

Finland has followed Poland and the Baltic States in dropping out of the moratorium on the use of landmines. All four countries now plan to use antipersonnel mines to reinforce their borders.

Britain is sending another 8 retired Puma HC2 helicopters to Ukraine.

Russia attempted to demolish a dam near Popovka, Belgorod Oblast, recently captured by Ukrainian forces, with an FAB-3000 fuel air bomb, to flood the land and prevent a Ukrainian advance (yes, Russia tried to blow up its own dam). They - somehow - managed to miss.

The Ukrainians are celebrating three years since the Russian advance in Kyiv Oblast was defeated after several major engagements and Russia was forced to withdraw in full.

Ukraine combined two JDAM-ER guided bombs into a single big bunker-buster, and used it to blow up a Russian command post in Kherson Oblast. The bunker was a Soviet-era SAM control bunker, possibly designed to resist nearby nuclear strikes. The post was apparently hit during a command meeting, with an unknown number of casualties. Some of the officers organising the recent (insane) suicide charges across the Dnipro were present.

Despite growing ineffectiveness due to superior EW and interception rates, Russia continues to use glide bombs. They dropped 10,000 every three months in 2024, and have matched that so far in 2025.

Three Russian POWs taken in Toretsk have asked to be transferred to the Russian Volunteer Corps to fight against Putin. They railed against being sent on suicidal missions with no drone, artillery, armoured vehicle cover.

Some Russian units on the front have reported problems getting fresh water, so have been squeezing wet wipes into buckets to drink.

Finnish President Stubb has apparently won the approval of Trump by playing golf with him. Stubb also praised Trump by saying that he is the "only one" who can negotiate a peace because Putin "fears him," and noting that Trump convinced Zelensky to agree to his ceasefire terms. Stubb also proposed an April 20th deadline for peace negotiations, and if Russia does not play ball, the EU and USA should simultaneously hit Russia with massive sanctions and tariffs. I think Stubb is trying to do a "Trump-whisperer" thing, interesting it it works.

Russian crossings across the Oskil have come under heavy drone attack, with multiple pontoons and bridges destroyed. Ukrainian forces also engaged and destroyed Russian positions around Andriivka, on the Kurakhove front. There is heavy fighting here, with some signs that Russia managed to secure the villages of Rozlyv, but Ukraine may have counter-attacked already. The Russians also mounted an offensive on the Kramatorsk front using motorbikes, resulting in 18 motorcyclists being destroyed, along with 5 accompanying vehicles. 

There's been a significant explosion several streets from the Kremlin. A vehicle that is apparently part of Putin's normal motorcade blew up, apparently for no reason. Exactly what happened there is being investigated.

A wild report - 100% unconfirmed at the moment - is that the strike on Engels Airbase damaged a nuclear storage facility and may have released a small amount of radiation into the atmosphere. The "Ukraine nuked Russia in this conflict first" headlines may be a tad exaggerated though.

A Russian platoon was driven back in an assault on a Ukrainian position. They radioed they were redeploying to the flank to try again, but a Russian BMP behind them thought they were retreating and opened fire, killing all the survivors of the initial attack.

A Russian Lorandit EW system in occupied Kherson Oblast was destroyed by local Ukrainian partisans. Ukrainian partisan activity around Melitopol and Mariupol has been ongoing since they fell to the Russians, but this is the first major attack by partisan forces in Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine has heavily fortified the Pokrovsk area, creating a defence network of tunnels, trenches, minefields weapons hardpoints and supply corridors at least twice as dense as the area between Adiivka and Pokrovsk, which took Russia more than 16 months to cover whilst losing hundreds of thousands of casualties. The defences are so formidable that Russia is apparently less keen to attack, shifting its priorities from Pokrovsk to the Zaporizhzhia front and clearing the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.

Discworld #32: A Hat Full of Sky

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The Czech Republic has said its artillery shell programme export programme to Ukraine is expected to at least match the 1.5 million shells they delivered in 2024, if not exceed it.

Continued heavy fighting around Pokrovsk, with Ukraine cementing control of Kotlyne and pushing south. It enjoys a lot of superiority in this area. The fighting around Shevchenko on Pokrovsk's southern front is also very intense, Russia may have stepped up attacks in this area. A T-80 tank was destroyed in this area.

Ukraine is counter-attacking the tiny Russian toe-hold in Sumy Oblast, and took 8 Russian soldiers prisoner.

Russia attempted a frontal assault on prepared positions of the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Apparently Russia spent 3 weeks preparing the the attack, but only had a few armored vehicles (less than two dozen) and 200 soldiers max to launch the attack. Ukrainian recon drones spotted the preparations and hit the forces as they moved out. None reached the front line, at least 60 KIA and 28 wounded, and 13 vehicles destroyed.

Russian losses have upticked to 1,860 in the last 36 hours or so, as Russian forces have gone on the offensive across the entire front. However, many Russian units have not received promised reinforcements and are going onto the attack extremely under-prepared. In some areas, they appear to be attacking prepared Ukrainian positions where the Ukrainians enjoy numerical superiority, with predictable results.

Russian forces have focused attention on Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a serious push that captured the settlement of Shcherbaky, but Ukrainian forces seemed to check them at Mali Shcherbaky immediately to the west and are counter-attacking.

Russia has blown up a Ukrainian ship...a wooden sailing ship, part of a vacation resort in Dnipro. Possibly they were confused or intimidated by this sign of Ukrainian naval superiority.

Interesting footage from a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian Kasta 2E2 radar system (worth $60 million). Multiple Pantsir SAM systems surrounding the radar fired air defence missiles, but several missiles immediately upended and flew straight into the ground (in one case possibly damaging its own launcher). Unclear if this was a Russian malfunction or the drone itself was broadcasting EW that confused the missiles' guidance systems.

Current analysis is that between 96 and 100 air-launched cruise missiles were destroyed at Russia's Engels Airforce Base, probably mostly Kh-101s. If so, that's over half a billion dollars' worth of missiles up in smoke and possibly 2-3 months' worth of production. A very powerful hit.

Several analyses put Russian losses in 2025 alone at 100,000 killed, wounded, captured, missing or gone AWOL. Total casualties for the entire war are believed to be approaching 1 million for Russia alone.

Russia is crash-importing significant quantities of butter from Argentina, Uruguay and Iran. Russian butter prices have now exceeded the levels reached in the 2008 financial crisis.

Kadyrov has apparently been moving his assets out of Chechnya and Russia to new bolt-holes in the Middle-East. He has been negotiating with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and possibly Bahrain about creating safeholds for his money and riches. Several of Kadyrov's family members have apparently disappeared, resurfacing in places like Dubai. The Kremlin is reportedly unimpressed with these moves, as they signify a lack of confidence in Russia.

South Korea has released an analysis that of the original 11,000 North Korean troops sent to Ukraine, 4,000 have been killed or injured, though only two have been captured (one of whom is apparently willing to go to South Korea rather than home). Around 3,000 North Korean reinforcements have been sent, or are preparing to go.

Analysis of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure indicates almost $700 million in direct damage to machinery, installations and stroage tanks in under six months. Including the cost of repairs and the lost sales volume, the damage may approach $900 million.

Mentalist, on 28 March 2025 - 08:13 PM, said:

Wait, Russia is using Iranian drones? <Friends_new_information.gif>