Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Ukraine is pummelling Rodynske and Pokrovsk hard with long-range strikes at the moment, apparently causing panic because some Russian forces on this sector have been withdrawn to the Lyman front, which is still in a state of total disarray, if not partial collapse, and now they're worried about a Ukrainian counter-offensive in this sector as well (that seems optimistic, but anyway).

Some reporting on Russian Telegram from front-line units saying they've been told from superior officers that over "two million" Ukrainian soldiers are dead so Ukraine has no army left, which is why they've been told to attack along the entire front, resulting in catastrophic losses and total confusion when they find the Ukrainian military has oddly not been entirely wiped out after all. I refuse to believe the more cynical Russian soldiers would have believed that for a nanosecond.

Ukraine has confirmed the Lyman offensive was spearheaded by hundreds of ground-assault drones, making the Russians believe an entire Ukrainian assault group was hitting them and leaving Ukraine with a strategic victory with relatively low combat losses.

More than 250 Russian soldiers stuck behind the lines on the Lyman front have surrendered. One of the largest mass-surrenders of Russian troops of the war.

The US bases at RAF Fairford, Lakenheath and Mildenhall in the UK have all gone on alert tonight, with Fairford on Code Delta, the highest possible level. Fairford has been home to US strategic bombers which may have taken part in strikes on Iran. The other two bases may have supplied support aircraft.

British police and US military police are apparently scrutinising all vehicles in the areas, plane-spotters have been asked to move some considerable distance back and anti-drone units appear to be out in force.

No official comment but some speculation that the US and UK are fearing Iranian agents using drones to try to hit US aircraft on the tarmac or in their hangers.

Ukraine has secured approaches to Lyman and pushed the Russians back to Yampil and Torske, which are now both under attack. The Russians are really on the back foot up there, although claims of a general collapse along that front remain extremely premature.

Some claims that Ukraine has breached the Russian lines along the Zherebets in multiple places and has pushed recon and drones deep into the Russian positions there. Some excited claims of Russian forces falling back and others being effectively cut off from resupply, and some Russian forces calling for a withdrawal to the Kreminna–Krasnopopivka line. I'm highly doubtful about this, especially because Russia can probably use the forests west of Kreminna as a much more effective defensive line, as Ukraine did against Russia. Retreating to Kreminna means almost retreating to the twin cities, and that seems barking mad. It would also mean a huge salient for Ukrainian forces, easily cut off.

More likely, Ukraine will continue attacking Russian forces beyond the Zherebets but will not advance too far beyond it unless there is a general Russian collapse. The bulk of Russian forces and the main threat is to the south, it would make more sense for Ukraine to focus its efforts there.

Bizarre story circulating that Russia planned to use drones launched from cargo ships to hit targets in Spain, Italy and France simultaneously. Apparently Lithuanian agents uncovered the plan and reported it to NATO members and the US, spurring direct US contact with Russia confirming its commitment to Article 5.

This plan sounds unhinged, at least the Narva or even Suwalki Gap ideas have some intelligence behind it, but this would have just resulted in every Russian ship outside its home waters being sunk and NATO forces likely hitting Russian forces in Ukraine very heavily. Completely barking mad.