Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Interesting analysis on the drone war, concluding that Ukraine has achieved a significant material and quantitative advantage over Russia. It points out that 7 million drones produced this year will likely mean over 10 million in 2027, and 10 million per year is when Ukraine believes it can start retaking significant territory.

In particular, it identifies March 2026 as a key month when Ukraine carried out more drone and missile attacks on Russian soil - 7,300 - than Russia carried out on Ukrainian - 6,400. The next key moment may come when the Russian Northern Fleet base at Severomorsk enters strike range (they're not far off now).

There is also now a growing analysis, even backed up by some Russian milbloggers, that Russia's spring 2026 offensive has been halted in its tracks even as it started, and Russian military commanders are now starting to really get into a tailspin. Some strategic reserves of equipment and troops for the summer campaign have already been deployed to meet the Ukrainian counter-thrusts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and to reinforce the central Donetsk push around Pokrovsk. These are the forces that were not supposed to be engaged for another 2-4 months, and using them was meant to avoid a major Russian mobilisation this year. Them being depleted now puts Putin in a difficult position. Mobilisation against a backdrop of cutting off the internet and public demonstrations against that (though modest so far) could create a flashpoint Putin wants to avoid. Russian recruitment is also apparently down 20% on last year, whilst casualties are significantly up.

There also appears to now be a deficit in the Russian workforce of around 3 million people, and by 2030 that could hit 11 million, with massive economic damage to the country as the inevitable result.

They also analyse Ukraine's weaknesses and confirm the country has its own manpower and recruitment problems. However, they concur with the general assessment that Ukraine's position is much stronger than it was 18 months ago (when things looked shaky for a while) and that Ukraine taking the lead in both air and ground drones is a decisive shift that Russia does not look able to replicate.

Putin has at least resurfaced, greeting Iran's foreign minister in St. Petersburg.

Russian tanks are being used on the front again, possibly out of desperation. We have some of the first footage for some considerable time of Javelins being used to eliminate them.

Current assessment is that Ukrainian forces may have reached Krashnohirske, Berezove and Vorone, leaving Russia with the barest of toeholds in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Berezove may be their last significant holding in the entire oblast. Ukrainian forces further south and north-east have already crossed the oblast border and driven Russian forces back into Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces have negotiated a withdrawal of their forces from the northern Malian city of Kidal, sparking fury in the government, which has said that "Russia has betrayed us." The move came after rebel drones hit several Russian targets around Kidal and destroyed them.

Russian military forces supporting the Malian government have been heroically running away and retreating in the face of rebel attacks. Some of the Tuareg militias, possibly including those trained by Ukraine, have aligned with JNIM to carry out the attacks. Both Ukrainian and French satisfaction with these moves may be tempered by JNIM being a radical Islamist group aligned with al-Qaeda. These are not good guys, even if realpolitik makes them eliminating Russian forces beneficial.

Russia is withdrawing more heavy equipment from Crimea and Kherson to deploy elsewhere. Ukraine has identified some convoys of heavy equipment and attacked them, in one case destroying a rare Tornado-S MLRS.

Ukrainian forces have reached the rail line in the south of Kostyantynivka. I'm not sure this is as big a deal as some have made out, as the line has been under constant drone interdiction range (from both sides) for months on end. I'm not sure any trains have dared to make the trip along it this close to the front in some considerable time. Still, symbolic as Ukraine continues to regain ground (however marginally) on this front.

Bilohirya, near Orikhiv, has also been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

Some Russian sources noting puzzlement that Putin has not appeared in public for two weeks, which isn't quite the longest he's gone without appearing since the start of the conflict, but is getting up there.

Some controversy going on after the developers of the Russian Kukushka heavy bomber drone (a Russian equivalent to Baba Yaga) were revealed to have been sent into direct front-line combat duties, apparently a deliberate attempt to kill them after getting into an argument with their CO. The drone operators were in demand with other drone units, but the CO became angry with them thinkin they were more important than him, so basically sent them to their deaths. Their families and supporters in other units are now after the CO's blood.

Russia pushing again at Kupyansk and taking extremely heavy losses in the process.

Russia hosted a live linkup with solders on the front to address students at the Kuban State Agrarian University and talk them into signing up with the military. A Ukrainian unit got wind of this and hacked into the feed, to cheerfully inform the students about the sheer volume of Russian casualties before they were cut off.

Ukraine has adapted AN-28 transporters as drone interceptor launchers, maximising the interceptor time in the air to engage targets.

Interceptor drone command centres have been moved back further into Ukrainian territory, allowing drone operators to engage enemy drones at considerable distance from the front, minimising the chance of casualties.

The oil terminal at Feodosia, Crimea has taken a heavy hit and is on fire. Again. The Gorky oil pumping station in Nizhny Novgorod has also been hit, with significant damage reported.

Tuapse is still ablaze after four days.

Several middling OSINT sources reporting that Ukraine has retaken the centre of Primorskoye and is pushing the Russians back out of Lukyanovskoye. Heavy combat is now underway in Stepnohirsk. This is all on the western Zaporizhzhia front, hard by the Dnipro.

The Lyman front is also heavily engaged, with Russian units furiously reporting that when they do make grinding advances, they cannot capitalise because their logistics are completely hammered into oblivion and they run out of ammo, food or both, and then have to pull back again.

Some Russian sources are saying that Tuapse (pop. 63,000) may have to be evacuated as the situation is becoming untenable. The entire town is getting hit by "oil rain" and some locals have already left under their own power.

Ukraine allegedly ceased running all target approvals by the United States some months ago.

Ukraine has failed to gain a licence to produce Patriots on Ukrainian soil, despite believing they can build at least 60 a month (the same as the USA), scaling up later in the war, and able to sell back to the United States and allies. As a result, Ukraine is switching to a native Patriot-style design which will by wholly home-built.

French analysis that Russia is currently shipping around 50% of its normal export capacity due to multiple oil terminals being offline, reducing its ability to capitalise on the Middle East crisis.

Russian casualties in the conflict have surpassed 1.32 million.

The €90 billion aid package for Ukraine has been provisionally approved after Hungary and Slovakia removed their objections. That could be finalised as soon as tomorrow.

Ukrainian personnel have arrived in Saudi Arabia to train Saudi and American military personnel on Sky Map, an anti-drone countermeasures system.

Ukrainian artillery regiments have deployed exoskeletons. This allows them to carry up up to a dozen howitzer shells (or a few artillery shells) at a time rather than just one. Not quite Starship Troopers, but the first-confirmed use of an exoskeleton in combat.

One key advantage that Ukraine has capitalised on is the intermediate drone range, previously dominated by the Russian Lancet. Anti-Lancet weapons and tactics have proliferated, and Ukraine has deployed Ram 2X and Hornet, and then iterated. A huge advantage is that Ukraine is working with partner countries to develop new drone types at a scale Russia cannot match, in facilities Russia cannot reach. The intermediate range (up to 100 miles) is now dominated by Ukrainian drones, meaning that Russian logistics is being degraded almost completely next to the front, forcing reinforcements and resupply units to inch towards the front under the cover of night (dubious), tree cover (until very recently, nonexistent) and drone nets (only quasi-effective).

Gerasimov has confirmed the full Russian capture of Luhansk Oblast, leaving people to ask, "again?"