Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Some claims that Ukraine has breached the Russian lines along the Zherebets in multiple places and has pushed recon and drones deep into the Russian positions there. Some excited claims of Russian forces falling back and others being effectively cut off from resupply, and some Russian forces calling for a withdrawal to the Kreminna–Krasnopopivka line. I'm highly doubtful about this, especially because Russia can probably use the forests west of Kreminna as a much more effective defensive line, as Ukraine did against Russia. Retreating to Kreminna means almost retreating to the twin cities, and that seems barking mad. It would also mean a huge salient for Ukrainian forces, easily cut off.

More likely, Ukraine will continue attacking Russian forces beyond the Zherebets but will not advance too far beyond it unless there is a general Russian collapse. The bulk of Russian forces and the main threat is to the south, it would make more sense for Ukraine to focus its efforts there.

Bizarre story circulating that Russia planned to use drones launched from cargo ships to hit targets in Spain, Italy and France simultaneously. Apparently Lithuanian agents uncovered the plan and reported it to NATO members and the US, spurring direct US contact with Russia confirming its commitment to Article 5.

This plan sounds unhinged, at least the Narva or even Suwalki Gap ideas have some intelligence behind it, but this would have just resulted in every Russian ship outside its home waters being sunk and NATO forces likely hitting Russian forces in Ukraine very heavily. Completely barking mad.

The Russians conducted a limited breakthrough on the Dobropillia-Druzhkivka front, allegedly using just one tank equipped with sophisticated anti-drone AW systems, an active defence system and reinforced armour to advance several kilometres, with Russian infantry teams trying to fill the breach behind it. Ukraine destroyed the tank with drones, but noted it required multiple direct hits. The Ukrainian assessment was the Russian tank was impressive but also eye-wateringly expensive, and Russia would struggle to equip many in that way for a larger-scaled breakthrough. Still, somewhat concerning. The gap in the line has been filled and the Russian infiltrating units destroyed after several days of combat.

Logistics interdiction operations have continued and intensified in recent weeks, with hundreds of Russian resupply trucks destroyed out to 50km or even more behind the front. Russian resupply remains difficult.

The US and Ukraine are close to a deal for widespread US purchase and adoption of multiple Ukrainian drone and drone interceptor systems. Some rumours this will be in return for the licence for native PAC missile construction in Ukraine, for Ukraine and its allies.

Ukraine has developed a fibre-optic drone interceptor system, which can autonomously track incoming FO drones and snip the fibre optic cable.

Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Kupyansk front underway, clearing Russian units from the Dvorichna-Zakhidne area.

Ukrainian reinforcements in the form of Skala battalions from the 425th Assault Regiment have (finally) arrived on the main Donetsk front. Things were starting to look a bit iffy there with Russia deploying 6 attackers for every defender, but the reinforcements should help plug the gaps and give some relief to the Azov Corps on the front line. The fighting here has been insane recently and Ukraine has done unbelievably well to hold this line whilst also carrying out an offensive on the Lyman axis.

Rather bizarre comments coming out of some Ukrainian commentators about a potential "game-changer" moment for the conflict in the next week or two. This was actually said a few days back, so some speculating it was actually about the mass drone assault on Moscow so is no longer relevant, but others thinking it might presage a larger-scaled counter-offensive somewhere else.

Gennady Zyuganov, head of the Russian Communist Party, has broken ranks and called on Putin to end the "exhausting" war.

ISW runs the numbers on Russia's options for a Narva operation.

They don't seem convinced, noting that even a limited incursion would trigger a massive NATO response, even if the likes of the USA and Slovaka decided to sit it out, and Russia would have limited options for success whilst the bulk of its ground forces remain committed in Ukraine. One possibility is that Russia would try to secure Narva quickly and dig into the town, forcing NATO forces to street-by-street fighting within Russian drone operator range and limited counter-drone options.

Interestingly, the ISW does not take into account that Ukrainian anti-drone brigades (particularly those on inactive fronts) could redeploy from Ukraine to the Baltics to aid NATO forces with not-insubstantial drone forces of their own. Perhaps they calculate that Ukraine would be reluctant to remove anti-drone forces from Ukraine whilst the war is ongoing, but I suspect, given the tremendous aid given to Ukraine by the Baltic States, that Ukraine would do so.

Also left unassessed is that if Russia and NATO get into a shooting conflict over Narva, even if Russia immediately backs down, then NATO may choose to intervene further in Ukraine in the form of limited reprisals, using F-35s to target Russian forces that are currently out of reach for Ukrainian forces due to Russian air defences.

Macros, on 21 September 2026 - 06:04 AM, said:

Netanyahu might end up out of office and in jail in a few weeks, so that might not be a problem.

Putin is clearly rattled by how this is all going, and the more he appears rattled and vulnerable, the more likely someone is to take him out. Even if Putin is succeeded by a hardliner, the hardliner can still end the war because it's not their war in the way it is Putin's, rebuild and then try something else down the line. It's clear the current situation is untenable in the long or even medium term.