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Ascendant
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46 years old
Birthday:
January 22, 1979

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Website URL  http://thewertzone.blogspot.com/

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  1. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    Today, 02:09 PM

    Germany seems to have been dragged kicking and screaming to the position of increasing defence spending from 1.5% to 2% of GDP, but this position had previously been suggested. Scholz seemed to get very annoyed in a meeting with Starmer and Macron (among others), pointing out that Germany's contributions to Ukraine had been greater than any other country's bar the United States, even though the military readiness and equipment of the Bundeswehr remains highly questionable. The UK has been criticised for allowing the army to atrophy to the point where it is unclear if it can support even a 10,000-strong peacekeeping force in Ukraine with three-month rotations (as opposed to putting over 30,000 troops on the ground at once in Iraq, which we simply could not do right now). The UK is continuing to focus on air and naval power, which is understandable, and looks likely to commit to a 2.5% GDP with a set timespan (as opposed to a nebulous "whenever" position, as is current). Military chiefs and experts want us to now commit to 3% by 2030 as a baseline, but the treasury seems to be screaming bloody murder about that idea.

    An ambitious-sounding plan for the European Union and its allies to commit to the spending of $732 billion in military, economic and reconstruction aid to Ukraine is being floated. The timeframe for this is unknown but even if it was over 10 years, it would still be an enormous amount of money. If Europe was able to buy American munitions, as the US has said they would allow, then this pretty much eliminates any problems caused by American official support drying up instantly.

    China has said it believes Ukraine and Europe should be involved with negotiations and it would consider any serious proposal to send Chinese troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine under a UN charter. It has suggested non-NATO countries could provide such troops to avoid Russian concerns over "Ukraine in NATO under a different name." However, China has voiced position recently that clash with Russian positions, suggesting that China would at least gently edge - if not throw - Russia under the bus if it meant securing better deals with Europe and minimising Chinese exposure to American economic moves. Türkiye is hosting Zelensky at the moment, Erdogan apparently keen to get in on the action after feeling sidelined in recent months.

    The 4-hour US-Russia summit in Saudi Arabia has ended with both sides making positive noises. Ukraine and Europe are concerned over being excluded. The only firm proposal that seems to have leaked is that Russia will "allow" Ukraine to join the European Union but will not accept it in NATO, but since this is a proposal they suggested back in 2022, it's hardly new. What is new is a Russian request that NATO formally revoke its 2008 Bucharest Summit declaration on Ukraine and Georgia having a path to NATO membership.

    The Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station has been heavily damaged. Replacing it and getting it working again will take over two months. However, Transneft believes it might be able to work at 70% capacity during the repairs (which seems optimistic). Andriapol oil pumping station and the Ilsky refinery have also been hit by Ukrainian forces.

    A Russian armored push in the Kupyansk sector was defeated by the 429th Achilles Regiment using drones. One Russian APC was destroyed and three more damaged.

    Ukraine aims to produce 4 million drones a year, improving on the 1.5 million drones produced in 2024.

    The US backed down on a hardline ultimatum Ukraine: sign the mineral deal or no meeting with Vance. Zelensky refused to sign under pressure, the hardline stance vanished and talks with Vance proceeded.

    The Russian oil tanker Seajewel carrying Russian oil has been crippled by an explosion, near the Italian city of Savona. The cause is unknown. 
  2. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    Yesterday, 03:26 PM

    The Kropotkinskaya refinery has been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine also launched possibly its second or third-biggest drone strike of the war, hitting multiple targets across Krasnodar Krai Oblast, including the refineries there.

    There seems to be confusion over whether Greece is sending 32 decommissioned F-16s to Ukraine.

    The Lyman front has gotten active again, with multiple Russian armoured thrusts defeated by Ukrainian defences. A 2S1 howitzer has claimed a direct hit on a moving Russian BMP from 10km away through a blizzard (drone footage appears to verify).

    Sweden, the UK and France seem to be leading the way with pledges of troops for a Ukrainian peacekeeping mission.

    Having secured the Chornobyl shelter, Ukrainian engineers discovered three "smoulder points" which could develop into fires. These would destroy the insulation of the reactor cover and pose a significant risk of degrading the shelter overall. They are working to stop the problem before it escalates.
  3. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    16 February 2025 - 02:22 PM

    The Russians sent an armoured column into action near Nikolskoye, Kursk. The column advanced along a mined road under attack from Ukrainian drones. What was more insane is that the tanks were ordered to fly red flags, possibly for filming purposes, over the objections of the Russian troops and even some of their officers.

    The column was subsequently devastated by Ukrainian fire and mines, and forced to retreat.

    Putin is apparently hoping to get both Xi and Trump to attend the 80th anniversary Victory Parade in Moscow in May.
  4. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    16 February 2025 - 01:01 AM

    The Russians have apparently been trying to rebuild the Antonivskyi Bridge, or at least float pontoons across the gaps in it. "Trying" is the operative word as they have been continuously zeroed by Ukrainian drones. The entire Russian operation in Kherson is beyond any sane understanding, they're simply being mown down by the dozen whilst trying to cross one of the biggest rivers in Europe near its mouth with the enemy having total fire control over the area.

    Russia has restarted attacks along the Kurakhove front. They have taken part of the village of Zelenivka, with Ukrainian forces either dislodged entirely or pushed to the edge of the village.

    Russian sources reporting a call between Lavrov and Rubio took place today, but US sources have not confirmed it. It is believed to be discussing the potential for talks in Saudi Arabia next week. Ukraine says they have not heard anything about it.

    European leaders are meeting for an unusual summit in Paris on Monday, to formulate a common position on US policy. Multiple leaders seem keen on taking a much firmer line against American unilateralism, though others are trying to meet Trump in the middle; Starmer may travel to Washington DC this week.

    Ukrainian and Chinese officials have met to discuss economic cooperation and the possibility of wider European-Chinese discussions, with the suggestion of a separate diplomatic track handled by China, with Ukraine's full involvement. China is sensing the possibility of establishing a reproachment with European countries unhappy with the Trump administration, and don't seem too bothered about dropping (the much poorer and less useful) Russia as an ally if that could become a realistic prospect. China has even signalled it will stop importing Russian energy sources if European countries can replace it in the quantities they need at a reasonable price (which unfortunately is unlikely, but still, interesting). Lithuanian observers have suggested that Ukraine could offer China access to Ukrainian coal, ports and rare Earth minerals in return for China leveraging Russia to a deal more favourable to Ukraine than one the United States could negotiate. This would be a "reverse Nixon" with China driving a wedge between the United States and Europe rather than vice versa.

    The Ukraine-US rare metals deal is on hold. The US wanted control of 50% of Ukraine's rare metal exports for an unspecified period of time for a bargain price, Ukraine considered this too generous. Possible subtext that they want to make sure they are fully included in any Moscow-Washington discussions before signing any deal.

    The Pokrovsk front is becoming more difficult for Russia. Reinforcements seem to have dried up, and Russia may have transferred its attention elsewhere for a renewed effort (possibly this reinforced Kurakhove offensive). Russian troops on Telegram complaining of total Ukrainian air and drone superiority, and localised artillery superiority. Their rear lines keep being cut by drone-dropped mines requiring constant mine-sweeping (with attendant personnel and equipment losses), and Ukrainian forces have made recent, though limited, gains along the front. Despite this, their commanders are still forcing them to attack, with over 250 combat missions launched against Ukrainian positions in the last two days, most of them repelled or unsuccessful.

    Germany's new chancellor candidate has indicated that he will provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

    The Volgograd refinery has been attacked again by drones. Only a couple of drones made it through, with Russia's AA and EW responding better than last time. Still, part of the refinery is burning.
  5. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    14 February 2025 - 09:03 PM

    The Russians decided it would be a splendid idea to bomb the outer protective shield around the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. A Shahed-136 exploded on impact, penetrating the shield. Fortunately the sarcophagus inside is still intact in that area, preventing a radiation release. Ukrainian engineers are moving to patch the impact. Exactly why the Russians targeted it is unclear.

    The Ukrainian 25th Sicheslav Airborne Brigade used a drone equipped with a loudspeaker to arrange the surrender of 9 Russian soldiers. One of the Russians had only been at the front for two weeks, but had decided to surrender after seeing so many dead bodies of fellow Russians, which nobody had bothered to clear up.

    Ukraine has hit the Slavyansk-on Kuban refinery with drones, causing a substantial fire. The full scale of the damage remains unclear.

    A Russian Geran-2 drone overflew targets in Ukraine and landed in Moldova, where it was shown to the Russian envoy, who would not confirm it was a Russian drone.

    China is already embarking on a charm offensive against Europe. This process started a few months back with Macron and Xi having constructive discussions (which some feared included Macron confirming France would not interfere if China was to blockade Taiwan) and seems to be continuing now. China seems to be positioning itself as a sane(er) and (more) reasonable partner versus a Trump-led United States, which shows every sign of being a random mess for the next four years.

    Trump and Modi seem to be building an impressive US-India strategic alliance, including sales of American weapons systems, oil, gas, semiconductors, processors for AI development and exchanges of strategic minerals. The goal is to provide India with an enhanced capacity to grow its economy to act as a counterbalance to China (whose population it has already overtaken), and to provide it with enough weapons to act as a deterrent to warfare. However, as fellow members of BRICS it is questionable if the US will be able to draw India into an actual military alliance, with India engaging Chinese forces if they were to move against US assets or allies in the Indo-Pacific theatre.

    In not-unrelated news, Russian oil companies are facing production cuts as they are unable to sell millions of barrels of oil. They are sitting on 17 million barrels in storage or on ships that they can't offload: either other countries can undercut them, or Russia's supposed friends are demanding such further price cuts that it would make them unprofitable. Oil exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossisk were down 17% year on year, whislt the cost to transport cargo from Kozmino on the Pacific to China down the coast has increased fivefold. At current production rates, Russia will have 50 million barrels in storage by July. Storage depots have also been destroyed in such numbers that Russia now has limited storage capacity for this oil beyond ships and terminals, which are already almost full.

    Germany may declare a state of emergency regarding the war in Ukraine. This is actually something of a technical step that would allow funding for Ukraine to be sourced and allocated differently, and could lead to a big uptick in financial aid without it impacting other German programmes.

    According to Scott Bessent, the US and Ukraine are developing an economic plan to tie their economies based on Ukraine's strategic minerals, energy and state enterprises, including defence. It's unclear how this squares with everything else (Bessent, Vance, Musk, Trump and Hegseth all seem to be singing from somewhat different hymn sheets). Zelensky has said this plan may include the provision of further air defences to Ukraine. He has also suggested that if Ukraine cannot join NATO and does not have a binding mutual defence treaty elsewhere, Ukraine may simply have to maintain a massive standing army of around 1.5 million for the foreseeable future. Selling its rare earth minerals to the USA for trillions of dollars would pay for this, its arming, plus reconstruction costs. Rubio and Bessent seem to be somewhat on board with this.

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Comments

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  1. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    22 Jan 2025 - 13:13
    happy #46 Wert, and many more
  2. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    21 Jan 2024 - 21:23
    happy #45 old chap
  3. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    21 Jan 2023 - 14:29
    geez Wert, getting old son. Have a good one.
  4. Photo

    ArchieVist 

    28 Jul 2022 - 16:57
    Wert, Sorry you didn't get your map question answered in Erikson's AMA. I had my fingers crossed. But check out the last 30 seconds of this new Critical Dragon interview. Erikson pulls out a sheaf of maps! So something still exists. Maybe something ICE needs for future PtA books.
    https://youtu.be/xb0UZ5e1Sw4?t=4230
  5. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    21 Jan 2022 - 14:32
    Happy birthday Wert
  6. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    22 Jan 2021 - 09:19
    Whoa ... meaning of life. Happy birthday
  7. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    05 Mar 2020 - 09:29
    Sorry, missed your birthday this year. Hope it was a good one.
  8. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    22 Jan 2019 - 11:51
    Dun dun dunnnnn ...
    Forty! YAAAAAHHHHHH!
    Have a good one.
  9. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    22 Jan 2018 - 08:24
    Same as below. Better make it a good one because it's 40 next year.
  10. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    22 Jan 2010 - 15:32
    Happy Birthday, now go out and get wrecked :)
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