Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Apologies for a Twitter-link, but this is the best summary of the current order of battle I've seen for the entire front.

This is actually pretty startling, Russia has been forced to concentrate a colossal amount of its total firepower in the Ukrainian theatre on a front about 30 miles wide. Meanwhile, the rest of the roughly 750-800-mile long front is covered by considerably fewer troops-per-mile. This would be more encouraging if Ukraine did not have to focus the majority of its strength in the same way (or risk the entire centre collapsing). Still, Ukraine has managed to achieve its moderate breakthrough (so far) north of Lyman and is focusing on exploiting that advantage whilst Russia is struggling to fully mobilise against it.

Certainly on the Russian side, they have very limited reserves, what you see is what you get, so whenever Ukraine pressures elsewhere on the line, Russia has to dip into the middle for reinforcements, which weakens the middle. This is why Russia is considering the risks of mobilisation because they need fresh bodies but not civil society descending into chaos at the same time.

Girkin was correct, Russia should have switched from attack to defence in 2026, remaining on the offensive has seriously damaged their ability to hold geographically unfavourable sectors of the front and any secondary or tertiary fronts where Ukraine can establish local superiority can be compromised. Fortunately, nobody listened to him.

The main problem here remains Ukraine being unable to convert local and tactical successes into more widespread strategic ones, but with their manpower situation (though improved over 2025) still strained it's hard to see where they can do that. One small possibility, but some Russian commentators have panicked over it, is that Ukraine can exploit the Lyman breakthrough into a larger-scaled breach into the Russian rear, where the impressive array of fortifications and dug-outs the Russians left some time ago are empty, and they haven't even laid substantial minefields. That could trigger a massive problem leaving the Russian centre vulnerable to a sweeping flanking attack. I consider that highly improbable at the moment.

The USA has just put massive sanctions on VTB Bank for doing business with Iran, that could be huge. VTB is not doing well anyway. US analysis that Russian diesel exports have just dropped to 0.

Ukraine has captured five Colombian POWs. Apparently they were hired by the Russians to operate in rear-echelon areas but within days had been moved to the front. The first Colombian POW convinced the others to surrender, saying none had an urge to die for Russia.

Russian forces have pressed closer to Orikhiv on the Zaporizhzhia front, that could be a critical blow if the town is taken.

Some reports that Russia has exhausted its primary reserves on the Donetsk front and has had to withdraw combat units from the front further south to plug the Lyman gap. However, Russian units arriving piecemeal without time to regroup would be cut to pieces, complicating the time it takes for Russian forces to intervene. In the meantime, Ukrainian forces continue to gain ground. It should be noted this is still a relatively restrained breakthrough, it's not comparable to the recapture of Kharkiv Oblast or pushing the Russians out of Kherson west of the river, and might only now be matching the success of the western Zaporizhzhia offensive earlier this year. It's still a huge boost to the Ukrainian tactical position, especially if they can take advantage to advance on other fronts.

If units are being pulled from the main front in Kostyantynivka that may explain Ukrainian forces seeing less Russian activity and have been able to counter-attack on that front as well. However, I'd hold on ordering the champagne just yet. Russia still has significant manpower and could pull troops from other, far less active fronts, as well as formalise the mass-mobilisation that's clearly coming. An extra 300,000 Russian troops, even rubbish raw recruits, would complicate things for the Ukrainians.

I suspect someone somewhere is taking bets on Ukraine re-attacking Chasiv Yar as well, for the sheer hell of it.

Seeing a report that the Polish government has convened an extraordinary meeting of security officials, the Ministry of National Defence and the Ministry of the Interior and Administration.

Polish intelligence is reporting that Russia may carry out an attack on Polish or Hungarian border positions under the pretext of it being a mistake whilst trying to hit Ukrainian positions near the border. This follows an attack on a Ukrainian train yesterday less than 800 metres from the Polish border.

The Freyja anti-ballistic missile system starts testing in a matter of weeks, possibly early December. Interesting to see how effective that will be.

Possibly a historical moment. A Russian unmanned surface vessel and a Ukrainian unmanned service vessel engaged in combat on the Black Sea, the first-ever recorded such engagement. The Ukrainians won, with the Russian vessel destroyed.

Some of the more excitable OSINT sources are claiming a Ukrainian counter-attack in and around Kostyantynivka, pushing some Russians back. This is the central lynchpin of the Russian offensive, so is more important than the recent successful Lyman counter-offensive. The more reliable sources are not really talking about this at the moment, so take with a pinch of salt for now.

Some reports that the Russians pulling back north of Lyman have actually crossed Zherebets River to find no supplies or fortified positions waiting for them as had been indicated, so they're either having to try to dig in best they can or keep running. The Ukrainians are pounding this area with everything they have (though the Russians are also flying dozens of glide bombs in, but these are less effective against mobile targets). Some recon elements of 3rd AFU Army Corps are already across the river and exploring the possibility of a wider-scaled strategic breakthrough, though Russian reinforcements are apparently already being shifted north to reinforce the 144th Division, which is suffering heavy losses.

Ukrainian forces south of Lyman are also moving, and Russian infiltration groups which had been causing trouble in Lyman for months may be pulling out of the town altogether and also falling back.

Unfortunately, further south, Russian aviation has brought Slovyansk and Kramatorsk within glide bomb range and are now hitting both the fortress cities with dozens of glide bombs on a daily basis. Apparently there are strong arguments about Kyiv giving the civilian evacuation order for the two cities, which are key to holding the rest of Donetsk Oblast, but a voluntary request for evacuation has already gone out. Kostyantynivka is still being contested to the south, though Russia now appears to have secured about 75% of the city. The Lyman front collapsing eliminates the threat of the fortress belt being enveloped from the north as well, at least for now.