Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Some reports that the Russians pulling back north of Lyman have actually crossed Zherebets River to find no supplies or fortified positions waiting for them as had been indicated, so they're either having to try to dig in best they can or keep running. The Ukrainians are pounding this area with everything they have (though the Russians are also flying dozens of glide bombs in, but these are less effective against mobile targets). Some recon elements of 3rd AFU Army Corps are already across the river and exploring the possibility of a wider-scaled strategic breakthrough, though Russian reinforcements are apparently already being shifted north to reinforce the 144th Division, which is suffering heavy losses.

Ukrainian forces south of Lyman are also moving, and Russian infiltration groups which had been causing trouble in Lyman for months may be pulling out of the town altogether and also falling back.

Unfortunately, further south, Russian aviation has brought Slovyansk and Kramatorsk within glide bomb range and are now hitting both the fortress cities with dozens of glide bombs on a daily basis. Apparently there are strong arguments about Kyiv giving the civilian evacuation order for the two cities, which are key to holding the rest of Donetsk Oblast, but a voluntary request for evacuation has already gone out. Kostyantynivka is still being contested to the south, though Russia now appears to have secured about 75% of the city. The Lyman front collapsing eliminates the threat of the fortress belt being enveloped from the north as well, at least for now.

The Houthis have overrun most of the Red Sea coast of Yemen and seized islands in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, giving them effective fire control over every vessel passing through. They have already imposed a blockade on Saudi shipping.

They also launched a significant drone attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, causing it to shut down. This is a major geopolitical disaster from the Saudi perspective. Apparently Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud called Trump twice yesterday, the second time in something of a panic, asking for American assistance and Trump told him to deal with it himself, he has enough money and American equipment. Apparently Trump then relented and allowed US intelligence sharing for targeting in the region. But evicting the Houthis from Mokha by air power is utterly impossible, the government-loyal militias seem to be giving up and Saudi Arabia is not putting ground troops into the area (because they're a bit rubbish).

The Houthis have basically secured their entire western flank, which means they can turn up the screws on Aden. If Aden falls, the internationally-recognised legitimate government falls and Yemen becomes a substantial, Iranian-allied country with a pretty big population (at around 45 million, Yemen is more populous than Saudi Arabia by about 10 million, which is an under-appreciated fact). Oman, with a tenth of the population just next door, will be bricking it, and a swift advance up the coast into Saudi Arabia towards Jeddah and Mecca is not entirely impossible (and the Saudis will be heaving a sigh of relief the most desolate desert on Earth stops the Houthis from just going straight towards Riyadh).

It's entirely possible that this will cause the Israelis and Saudis to directly ally together and try some kind of intervention because what was looking like a major geopolitical win last year is turning into a major reversal right now.

A Ukrainian drone flew over 3300 km to strike targets in Siberia. Ukraine now says they have the capability to lay waste to Russia's western Siberian gas fields. Potentially huge gamechanger.

Ukraine is testing its FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles but has run out of room to test them due to their long range. FP-9s launched from western Ukraine basically run out of space over eastern Ukraine for their range and accuracy to be fully assessed. Some discussion of asking neighbouring countries for help (which might be controversial if the missile malfunctions) or just test-firing them into Russian territory.

The Russian missile frigate Admiral Essen has been crippled by direct hits at port in Novorossiysk. An accompanying cruise missile carrier has also been hit and may have been effectively destroyed, with the rear half of the ship completely devastated.

John Ratcliffe reportedly impressed Trump with his ability to talk tough to the Russians, whilst Trump has lost faith in Witkoff and Kushner. According to rumour, Witkoff and Kushner will move to talking to American allies in the Gulf, whilst Ratcliffe may take a stronger role in Ukrainian-Russian talks. The White House has played down the reports.

Some reports also saying that Ratcliffe was supposed to meet Putin directly, but the other Russian officials panicked and cancelled the meeting after Ratcliffe turned up with accurate maps showing the limits of recent Russian advances, which contradict the Russian military's account.

The United States fired 60 PAC interceptors at Iranian ordinance last night in one salvo.

One Ukrainian commentator going ballistic because some of the incoming ordinance did not warrant that level of response (though Iran did use several multi-warhead missiles which did).

Multiple, much more reliable sources now reporting the collapse of the Lyman salient and even claiming the scale of the victory is larger than initially claimed, with over 200 square kilometres liberated. Ukrainian forces are still advancing into Luhansk Oblast, and some units may be turning south-east to try to push the Russian units quite close to Lyman's eastern side back as well. Russian reinforcements to this sector appear to have been diverted to the central front in the Donbass, so it's unclear how quickly the Russians can shore up this area.

Romanian Intelligence has neutralised a Russian sabotage operation targeting critical infrastructure in Romania.

A Russian jet-powered drone overflew Transnistria, Moldova and Romanian airspace before flying back over Moldova and vanished. Investigators are trying to determine if it crashed in Moldova or reached Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian military intelligence assesses the growing probability of a renewed attack into northern Ukraine, potentially from Belarus, towards Kyiv. Ukraine has extremely heavily fortified these approaches and do not believe Russian forces could penetrate more than 10-20km into Ukrainian territory. Heavily fortifying the border itself is difficult because the area is within easy glide bomb and artillery range. Ukraine also assesses the autumn mobilisation may have been downsized to 300,000 troops after it became clear that a larger mobilisation risked damaging the Russian economy too badly.