Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

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Russia has transferred a significant number of troops from Kherson and the SW Zaporizhzhia front to the Pokrovsk front. This is after 30,000 troops were already transferred from Kherson during the summer, halving the number of troops Russia has available in Kherson (some new recruits were transferred to Kherson, possibly from Crimea and Russia proper, but the numbers are unknown).

Apparently hundreds of troops are arriving every couple of days, often being sent into combat with no proper reassignment. Some of the Russian troops are apparently arriving from areas that have been somewhat inactive and were a bit surprised at being thrown straight into Pokrovsk's urban combat zones.

Ukrainian counter-attacks in northern Pokrovsk continue, with the 425th Separate Assault Regiment reoporting success in retaking several Russian-held streets. The combat situation in Pokrovsk remains very intense.

Reports that Ukraine and its European allies have committed to a further three years of fighting have apparently alarmed Moscow, which is suddenly keen to re-open dialogue with Washington and Kyiv to end the war much sooner, and has already started laying the groundwork for a possible peace deal in 2026 (with Putin saying the defence budget must drop next year). Russia's economic situation makes maintaining the war at this level of intensity through 2026 alone questionable, and until 2028 implausible, whilst Ukraine's partners can continue to back it.

Interesting observation: If we overlay the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 over the timeline of the Ukrainian conflict, then right now would be February 1945. The Red Army is closing in fast on Berlin and Germany is in full-scale collapse.

In this conflict, Russia is still at Pokrovsk, 41 kilometres from where they started on this front almost four years ago.

Some reports that the Ukrainian 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade has fought its way into southern Pokrovsk and is holding the line against heavy Russian assaults. Whether this means the line has been pushed back to the southern suburbs of the city or if the fighting is porous through the city is unclear.

Unconfirmed report that Ukraine has tested a "swarm drone" attack on the Donetsk Metallurgical Plant.

Ukrainian Flamingo missiles successfully hit energy targets in Oryol, Russia. This appears to confirm that Flamingo's previous targeting accuracy issues have been resolved. The thermal power plant in Oryol appears to be offline. Energy facilities in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk were also hit.

Russia has lost an Su-30SM fighter to enemy action, whilst an Su-27 crashed near Petroskoi, Karelia, NE of St. Petersburg.

The Russian radar stations in Ordzhonidkidze, Crimea have been hit by drones.

The Morskoy Neftyanoi oil terminal in Feodosia has been hit for the second time in three days, sustaining heavy damage.

For the first time, Russian forces on the front have reported shortages of fuel, leading to some mechanised attacks being abandoned or going ahead without armoured support. So far the shortages appear confined to secondary areas of the front; forces at Pokrovsk seem reasonably well-supplied.

Ukrainian analysis that Russia is using Ukraine's own tactics against it, targeting Ukrainian short-range logistics hubs to try to starve Ukrainian units at the front of ammo, fuel, food and water, and create "no go" areas behind the front. These tactics have been successful in eastern Zaporizhzhia, but less so around Pokrovsk.

Ukraine has received €6 billion in financial support from the EU today.

Rubio has admitted that further US sanctions and tariffs against Russia are weakened by the fact that there's nothing left for the US to sanction, due to limitations on the amount of Russian-US trade. He has urged EU powers to wean themselves off Russian oil ASAP.

A Ukrainian dog, Lavr, has had both his forelegs replaced by prosthetics after they were lost in a bombing. Lavr now works with Ukrainian combat veterans rehabilitating after battle, sometimes with their own replaced limbs.

Russian officials are proposing they recruit 25,000 Cubans for the front lines, and set up 4 military bases in Venezuela to deter American adventurism. The enthusiasm in Cuba for this enterprise remains unclear.

China has substantially reduced oil orders from Russia, turning to Saudi Arabia to replace them instead.

I was starting a new round of mapping, but held fire because of some interesting news: the next Broken Binding sets going out (fairly soon) will apparently have a brand-new world map created at Ian Esslemont's direction, with some oversight from Steven Erikson. This should be the first canonical world map.

The map in the previous set was based on the fanon maps as an optional extra, it was not meant to be canon in itself. This new one sounds like a bigger deal.

The Lukoil operations in western Iraq have been terminated due to the Iraqi government moving to avoid secondary sanctions.

Ukrainian forces are dummying human heat signatures using heated irons and fake uniforms. When Russian forces fire on them, Ukrainian snipers identify the attackers and eliminate them.

A Russian war blogger has said that Russia has lost at least 80-100,000 dead just to take Bakhmut and Pokrovsk (noting that fully taking Pokrovsk may take another fortnight and thousands more dead). He also says that most Russians are unaware of the true cost of the war, and he is no longer going to cover it up. He points out that Germany lost fewer dead to occupy Poland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway during WWII.

Tuapse has taken another major hit overnight.

Ukrainian analysis of the Pokrovsk front is that the intensity of Russian attacks has decreased slightly in the last 24 hours. Ukraine has reinforced its supply corridors to Pokrovsk and stabilised the Myrnohrad front. Russian attacks are continuing, with around 50,000 troops concentrated in a relatively small area (possibly the highest troop-to-area ratio in the war to date), but Ukrainian elite reinforcements have arrived and drone strikes are eliminating Russian positions.

Some analysts saying that Russia's effort could be culminating and leave Ukraine holding most of the town, but others believing that Russia will make another very large push over the weekend that will likely start dislodging Ukrainian positions in the centre of town.

Ukraine is offering to buy 27 Patriot missile batteries from the United States.

The position along the eastern Zaporizhzhia front is starting to look questionable, with some Russian units advancing to more favourable positions north-east of Hulyaipole. This town presents a significant blockage to Russian advances from the south and south-east, but if they can push to attack from the north and north-east they could have an easier time of it. Taking the town would mean opening up additional lines of attack towards Zaporizhzhia city. Getting within artillery range of the city is a major Russian goal, as having to evacuate a city of over 700,000 would present formidable logistical challenges. However, it's still quite some distance away, and the situation may yet stabilise.

Ukraine has claimed over 25,000 Russian soldiers KIA in October, the largest one-month tally for the entire war to date. This appears credible given the hugely intense level of combat we've seen along multiple fronts. Zelensky has praised Mavic-type small drones for inflicting the largest number of casualties.

There appear to be multiple miles' worth of fibre-optic cables strung back and forth across the Pokrovsk sector. Clean-up of fibre-optic cable after the war is going to be a significant logistical effort.

Ground-based anti-drone units have now been deployed to Romania and Poland's borders with Russia and Belarus.

Kirill Grekov, Deputy Prosecutor General of the Luhansk People's Republic, has been found hanged. He was wanted by Ukraine.

Polish analysis (from Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski) that Putin may prefer a "bad war" in Ukraine to a "bad peace" in Russia afterwards, that exposes the stupidity of the decision to invade.

Some Russian commentators suggesting that former prisoners-turned-soldiers have caused big problems on returning to Russia, so those still fighting on the front should be sent to Africa after the war ends or, "face the sledgehammer."

Ukraine will be integrated into the EU's Defence Fund. This will allow European states to buy equipment from Ukraine at a reasonable cost, and will allow Ukraine to join EU research and development programmes.

Sweden is saying its first Gripens could be delivered to Ukraine in 2026, ahead of previous estimates.