Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

ISW is saying that Russia may expand its territorial demands in Ukraine as part of any peace preconditions, possibly demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in addition to maintaining a buffer zone along the borders of at least Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. The expansion of demands may then be used as a casus belli for what now appears increasingly likely to be a mass mobilisation order in May, despite the immense risks that presents.

At the same time, Putin has apparently removed several military commanders with ties to Shoigu, possibly fearing a military coup. Shoigu himself remains safe, for now.

Apparently the USA has given Israel one week to come up with a firm plan for regime change before they start talking about winding the operation down, which has left Israel scrambling to come up with an idea. They're now using drones to hit individual roadblocks and police positions in Tehran to try to free up the population for a revolution, but there is severe doubt that's even viable, or if the regime loses Tehran does that even matter very much if they control the rest of the country.

Also speculation of a joint US-Israel spec ops strike on the Isfahan nuclear site. Iran is apparently worried about such operations, its vast size and the Zagros Mountains being a barrier to conventional invasion but also giving infiltration missions a lot of cover. The US has refused to hit the site with bombs, noting that collapsing the site would merely trap the nuclear material there and allow Iran to dig it out later on. However, a spec ops strike might have a very hard time combing the site to find the material, especially as Iran has filled in several of the entrances.

Israel has also sounded the alarm about Egyptian moving military forces into the demilitarised part of the Sinai. No idea what that's about, if Israel is teeing up another conflict already.

The problem is they can't just flatten Iran. Using B-52s or a tactical nuke to destroy Tehran would kill tens to hundreds of thousands of Iranians who hate the regime, and probably not that many regime loyalists.

They've also already destroyed most obvious military bases, AA sites, missile launch sites, factories etc. This is going to be the same problem as Serbia/Kosovo, you keep pummelling the targets that are already destroyed and unless you want to commit mass genocide, you can't really do anything else. That leads to you walking away (leaving Iran de facto victorious) or the near-inevitable conclusion that you have to send in ground troops.

The US is pulling THAAD and Patriot launchers out of South Korea to send to Gulf allies. Seoul is not happy about this.

Three oil tankers have been hit and heavily damaged near the Strait, dissuading anyone else from trying to cross.

Breaking story that another two tankers have been hit and are ablaze off the coast of Iraq.

Oil tanks in Salalah, Oman are ablaze.

A Chinese cargo ship behind the Thai tanker hit this morning turned right around and got the hell out of the Strait. Apparently Iran's promises not to hit Chinese vessels are not worth very much.

The FBI has issued a warning to Californians that there is intelligence suggesting an Iranian plot to use cargo ships off the coast of California to launch attacks on military and civilian targets in Los Angeles and San Francisco. They regard the possibility as plausible.

The Moscow region has had very spotty internet for 5 days, which is interesting.

The Institute for the Study of War has said that Russia has had to dig deep into its strategic reserve to send reinforcements to the crumbling Zaporizhzhia front and shore up the rot on the Kupyansk front. In some areas, Russian units are being told to simultaneously defend a front from a significant offensive and advance without support, resulting in the unit either not moving in confusion or moving out of cover and being destroyed.

The ISW conclusion is that Russia's manpower limitations have now reached a crux and Russia must either decide to concentrate forces on one big offensive on one sector of the front, mobilise hundreds of thousands more troops or abandon plans for a Spring 2026 offensive and go over to the defensive along most of the line. Or carry on as they are now and risk an entire front just collapsing.