Malazan Empire: Werthead - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Cause, on 30 June 2026 - 07:19 PM, said:

There seems to be a strong likelihood of Russia enacting a mobilisation in the autumn to try to finish the war by seizing the rest of the Donbas, then returning the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv to Ukraine in a peace deal. They'll probably accept a partition of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Ukraine is now pushing to see if they can get much better leverage. They know Russia needs Crimea much more than maybe the Donbas and the other occupied territories altogether, so if they can put it under real pressure, they might look to get a better deal. They may also be looking to the success of their drone campaign and see if that can translate into a major strategic shift, possibly through the western Zaporizhzhia offensive. If they can start converting the supply cut-offs into a real breakthrough, Putin may feel he has to make a deal now or risk losing a vast swathe of the captured territory. Making a peace deal after that point might basically just be suicide for him.

Ukraine has to be somewhat cautious, they have achieved some successes but they are still having some issues with manpower recruitment (not as bad as early last year, when things got critical for a while), air defence procurement and keeping the power grid online. The Ukrainian people are resilient, but coming up on the four-and-a-half year mark of the conflict is really seeing some fatigue set in. But the Ukrainians are also not idiots, they know they cannot accept any deal which allows Russia to attack again six months or six years after the deal is signed. That means the gap between what Putin will accept and what the Ukrainians will accept remains too wide.

Someone in Moscow getting a grandstand view of two Ukrainian cruise missiles slamming into a refinery last week.

The governor of Crimea appears to be defying Kremlin orders to keep quiet about the scale of the shortages on the peninsular. Instead he has said there are no large-scale deliveries being made, and further restrictions on fuel sales are being introduced, limited to the military and emergency services only.

Lukashenko has visited Beijing. Lukashenko has good relations with Xi and seems to have pivoted to Chinese support as a way of putting off Moscow's demands for Belarus to join the conflict.

Ukraine has used Flamingo cruise missiles to hit the Dubna Space Communications Center in Moscow Oblast for the second time. The first attack was judged ineffective because it hit the admin building.

Ukrainian, European and Russian opposition sources are all now strongly convinced that Putin will announce a further mobilisation of 300,000-500,000 troops in September, and Russia is preparing for potential-large scale flight from the country in response, as well as possible protests.

Perun update on recent military activity from both sides.

Multiple Russian units have produced threatening videos in support of Lunin (who is a military veteran as well). Very interesting.

Ukraine has devastated the Slavayansk-on-Kuban oil refinery, Krasnodar, with massive explosions and fires ripping through the complex. Looks like a very heavy series of hits. The Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl also took a heavy hit.

Additional OSINT sources now showing additional Ukrainian gains around Kamyansk.

Putin and Lukashenko have held a 2-day conference in Valdai. Apparently it is "routine" but alleged insiders claim that Putin has asked Lukashenko to join the war in a more direct fashion, and has applied considerable pressure to that end. Lukashenko is likely to prevaricate.

After a month of Russia shoring up the lines in western Zaporizhzhia successfully, it appears that Ukraine has worn down their reinforcements, and some Ukrainian recon units have moved closer to Kamyanske. Logistics strikes in this area are extremely heavy.

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a Russian mobile fire group tasked with protecting fuel shipments in Crimea.

Ukraine has bombed a road bridge in Rozdolne, Crimea. The road bridge collapsed downwards onto a rail line, totally blocking it. Russia attempted to bring in equipment to clear it, by rail, but then couldn't because the railway line itself was destroyed where it crossed the North Crimean Canal. Russia seems to be struggling to work out how to repair these structures in order.

Ukraine has lost two MiG-29s in the last few days, one destroyed at an airfield and one in combat operations over the front. A reminder that Russian AA systems have been degraded, but not completely destroyed.

Ukraine used a barrage of Flamingo missiles to severely damage the Titan-Barrikady factory in Volgograd, 550km from the launch site. Russia destroyed two missiles in flight, but three survived to hit the target.

Russian milblogger "Lunin" has been arrested after saying the war may end with the army "turning its guns on the Kremlin."

There is currently a 20-mile tailback extending across the Kerch Bridge into Crimea with people trying to flee.